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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem
Thanks to Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol for first picking up this trend that an increasing and now sizeable chunk of CON Remainers from 2017 have now switched to the LDs.
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Damn - third like Swinson!
Man U 2.28
Arsenal 3.35
Draw 3.65
Is that all?
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I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.
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Far too pessimistic
There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.
You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.
It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?
Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.
Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.
In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.
Byronic/SeanT-
We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2
Plenty of shit had already hit the fan by then. The difference is Boris.
Join the LDs and pick up the Coalition where you left off!
The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.
The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.
Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1178709920872636416?s=21
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-september-2019-2/
Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.
Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.
I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.
I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
However I still believe the Union is better for all of us
It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...
So in a sense this analysis is just stating what is pretty obvious anyway from the headline figures. Johnson won't be too discomforted if the Opinium data as a whole is correct, because it has the Conservatives on 36%, 12% ahead of Lab and 16% ahead of the Libs.
If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.
The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.
With both Mark Francois (tonight) and the DUP (last week) hinting at willingness to look at an improved deal, it will get interesting for all concerned if Boris does in fact bring a deal back, vanishingly unlikely as that seems. Hard to guess how voting against one would play out with these fluid groups of voters.
We don't need to go on marches every week like the Yessers.
Given the Socialist Spanish PM has an election next month and polls suggest Catalan nationalists will hold the balance of power we may finally get a referendum on independence in Catalonia first anyway
Haven't we been here before? Twice? On 20th August, Merkel told Bozo to come up with a workable solution within 30 days. He told Steven Barclay to crack on. 30 days have passed, and nothing. Nothing happened. The 20th September has come and gone.
The separately, on the 18th, I recall the Finnish PM told the UK it had twelve days to put something forward that would work. Well, it's 8pm on the evening of the 30th September, and unless Johnson pulls something out in the next few hours (there's a joke there somewhere), nothing has been presented.
Now we're told to wait till next week?
Here's a sentence for you, that'll work whatever day you read it. "TOMORROW, Johnson will put forward workable solutions to the Backstop and solve Brexit. TOMORROW." Read that whenever you want. It'll always be true.
Secondly, and lesserly, stop calling them the '21' rebels. Sam Gyimah is gone, and ain't coming back. And I'm willing to bet a few others aren't either (at least not whilst Johnson is in charge). I think even if Brexit were resolved (somehow), only about 15 would return to the fold max. I can't see the Conservatives regaining their majority anytime soon (if ever before a GE).
I’m beginning to come to the view that he’s not actually very good at politics.
And with that I'm off to watch the footie.
A reminder of simpler times.
“Where do we come from?" "What are we?""Where are we going?”
As a life long Tory, I have now switched to Lib Dems.
What they meant was that demographicly and socioeconomically identical affluent households would be prepared to vote Lib Dem rather than Conservative over micro social issues like Gay rights, Foriegn Aid or the Enviroment. Cameron spotted this.
Of course since then we've had The Crash, The Coalition, Nationalism etc. Things change.
But perhaps via Brexit ( or more accurately how Brexit is changing the Conservative Party ) that Cheadle distinction is Remainian Tory areas is reasserting itself ? We'll see.
Talking to a bloke in a Halifax in a pub. He would vote to remain! I will see what others think...
I think re join isn’t the way to go , even as an ardent Remainer I think there’s no way back for a very long time .
I’d vote for a party that will have a very close relationship with the EU.
(I’m aware of the Canadian one, but still.)
Or did he bring his WWII bomber in with him ?
Con got 42.4% in 2017. So 33% of 30% is 10%. So overall 4..2% is added to the LD score. This was 7.4% in 2017, so where is the rest of the LD bounce coming from and this remainer part is the largest. Well can only be the trots.
Britons are spending more on a night out than at any point in the last three years, a survey suggests.
Club and bar chain Deltic found the average person spent £70.69 on a night out in the three months to September.
That is up 25% on the same period last year and the highest since October 2016 when the survey began.
Deltic surveyed 2,300 people about all sorts of nights out, including trips to the cinema, restaurants, pubs and nightclubs.
The survey found that during the three months to the end of September, 61% of people went on a night out at least once a week, up from 56.2% last year.
Spending increased on every component of the evening - from drinks at home and transport, to entry fees, food and alcohol bought at venues.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49873533
Possibly not the most 'scientific' of surveys but it does show that many, many people are doing very well currently.
Or at least spending in that way.