Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

124»

Comments

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625

    humbugger said:

    Morning everyone. Regardless of the truth of Edwardes allegations against Boris, the alleged incident appears to be towards the less serious spectrum of sexual assaults, and the fact that it's surfaced 20 years after the event and coincides with her joining the Sunday Times may look to some as being self serving and even politically motivated.

    Only to gammons who haven’t felt a lady’s legs in years.
    Yet it wasn't mentioned two years ago when there multiple stories of this type.
    You do realise that attitudes such as this are why women don’t speak out about these kind of incidents in the first place? They know that immediately a small army of men with attitudes like yours will come out to belittle the incident or claim they were lying.
    So you would prefer that only people with permitted views are allowed to comment and nobody ever allowed to ask inconvenient questions.

    The not_on_fire road to thoughtcrime.
    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than instinctively assuming a distressing allegation from which the victim stands to gain little has been made up.
    I haven't assumed anything, I simply made a relevant comment.

    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than using racially derogatory abuse to people who point out facts you find inconvenient as humbugger did.

    And do you really think people 'stand to gain little' by allegations about top politicians ?
    The individual concerned personally stands to gain very little. I see you are still failing to take her or complaints seriously.
    How do you suppose we should do that ?

    My advice would be to report such incidents to the relevant authorities. Has she done that ?

    And how seriously are you taking Boris's side of the story ?
    A proven liar with a proven history of sexual misconduct?
    Clearly there's no need for any action by the police or any other relevant authority as you've pronounced the verdict.

    Would you now like to pass the sentence.
    Your argumentative approach on this one seems to be consistent straw-manning.
    Why don't you address the points actually made ?
  • Options

    Noo said:

    tlg86 said:

    humbugger said:

    Morning everyone. Regardless of the truth of Edwardes allegations against Boris, the alleged incident appears to be towards the less serious spectrum of sexual assaults, and the fact that it's surfaced 20 years after the event and coincides with her joining the Sunday Times may look to some as being self serving and even politically motivated.

    Only to gammons who haven’t felt a lady’s legs in years.
    Yet it wasn't mentioned two years ago when there multiple stories of this type.
    You do realise that attitudes such as this are why women don’t speak out about these kind of incidents in the first place? They know that immediately a small army of men with attitudes like yours will come out to belittle the incident or claim they were lying.
    If this happened, she should go to the police rather than announce it to the world on Twatter.
    She has no obligation to handle this in the way of your choosing. How arrogant of you to think you know what's best in this situation.
    Who needs the law when you can have twatter lynchings.
    When the law fails - as it has done on sexual crimes - then people lose confidence in it.

    You don't fix that situation by having a go at people. You improve the way that the law deals with sexual crimes.
  • Options
    And public discourse is deteriorating:

    https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1178592493883056128
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    It's not completely impossible, but I'm highly sceptical. Viktor Orban is probably the cleverest politician operating in the EU at the moment (and quite possibly the most venal). They'd have to offer him something pretty spectacular for him to risk pissing off the rest of the EU to that extent and it's not at all obvious what that might be.
    Maybe some military hardware who knows, it is of course only a rumour and could turn out to be nothing but if they did manage it and Orban did veto further extension it would be a spectacular coup from Boris and Cummings and effectively make the Benn Bill redundant
    Which would give Parliament a clear Noel Edmonds choice following the EU summit.

    The problem of course being that discussions of extension within the EU would happen after the Commons have voted down the deal - which they will if they don’t think No-Deal will happen.

    For this to work, EU leaders need to say at the summit, or beforehand, that there’s definitely no further extension possible.

    Then maybe we finally get past this.
    Provided the EU also agrees to remove the backstop or enough Labour MPs agree to back the Withdrawal Agreement and a Northern Ireland only backstop to overcome DUP opposition.

    I still think both unlikely and it would need a Tory majority after the next general election to pass the latter
    Do you think Labour vote against the deal, if the EU make it clear there’s no extension on offer and it’s either deal or no deal?

    The other alternative is that the EU offer only a very long extension, two or three years. This serves dual purposes (for them) of getting it out of the news and increasing U.K. uncertainty.
    Isn't the problem here that the WA can't be brought back in this session of parliament?

    We would need to prorogue and have a new session, QS etc.
    Yes, would need to be a new session for the same WA, or a slightly amended WA from the EU summit.
    If the SC judgment was essentially "you can prorogue - but don't take the piss" then Boris could announce he was again going to prorogue, maybe during his Conference speech - for a Queen's Speech on say Monday/Tuesday next week.

    Otherwise it would risk the Speaker being the cause of No Deal if he didn't allow another vote, where there were no further extensions. I don't think he wants that to be what he is remembered for.....
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337
    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
  • Options
    Noo said:

    It seems very unlikely that Trump will actually be impeached. But there may - just - be enough for the GOP to force him to stand down as their nominee in 2020. Trump can claim the fake news media has made it impossible for him to run, or something.

    Trump could claim that he's done his job - America is Great Again, the Wall is Built (and it Cost Nothing because Mexico Paid for it), the Swamp is Drained, etc - even if it isn't true, and he never wanted to be President anyway, he's a businessman, time to return to business, and, look, here's this great person to hand over to.

    It will be much easier for him to stand aside if he has a say in who replaces him.
    If there weren't criminal cases working their way through the states I'd suggest that there's a high chance he could step aside late in his presidency in exchange for a pardon. But presidential pardons only count against federal crimes. And even though the convention on not indicting a sitting president also only counts against federal crimes, Trump is in a stronger place to argue against the legitimacy of the state cases whilst he's in the oval office. I expect him to cling on to the bitter end.
    Bannon has said that Trump's exit will be nasty and very undignified. I have no reason to doubt him based on experience so far.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    It seems very unlikely that Trump will actually be impeached. But there may - just - be enough for the GOP to force him to stand down as their nominee in 2020. Trump can claim the fake news media has made it impossible for him to run, or something.

    Trump could claim that he's done his job - America is Great Again, the Wall is Built (and it Cost Nothing because Mexico Paid for it), the Swamp is Drained, etc - even if it isn't true, and he never wanted to be President anyway, he's a businessman, time to return to business, and, look, here's this great person to hand over to.

    It will be much easier for him to stand aside if he has a say in who replaces him.
    If there weren't criminal cases working their way through the states I'd suggest that there's a high chance he could step aside late in his presidency in exchange for a pardon. But presidential pardons only count against federal crimes. And even though the convention on not indicting a sitting president also only counts against federal crimes, Trump is in a stronger place to argue against the legitimacy of the state cases whilst he's in the oval office. I expect him to cling on to the bitter end.
    Bannon has said that Trump's exit will be nasty and very undignified. I have no reason to doubt him based on experience so far.
    I can well foresee that. Let's hope if true it's only nasty and undignified for him, rather than the whole country.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    You must be on cloud 9 today then ;)
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    If pb.com is the Lake Como of the Internet then twitter is its festering sewer.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    Agreed. Hot weather sucks. Although, actually, it's not heat as such it's the mugginess that comes with our island climate. Clean heat is rare in the UK.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Thanks to all for the kind words about my article anyway.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:


    Only to gammons who haven’t felt a lady’s legs in years.

    Yet it wasn't mentioned two years ago when there multiple stories of this type.
    You do realise that attitudes such as this are why women don’t speak out about these kind of incidents in the first place? They know that immediately a small army of men with attitudes like yours will come out to belittle the incident or claim they were lying.
    So you would prefer that only people with permitted views are allowed to comment and nobody ever allowed to ask inconvenient questions.

    The not_on_fire road to thoughtcrime.
    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than instinctively assuming a distressing allegation from which the victim stands to gain little has been made up.
    I haven't assumed anything, I simply made a relevant comment.

    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than using racially derogatory abuse to people who point out facts you find inconvenient as humbugger did.

    And do you really think people 'stand to gain little' by allegations about top politicians ?
    The individual concerned personally stands to gain very little. I see you are still failing to take her or complaints seriously.
    How do you suppose we should do that ?

    My advice would be to report such incidents to the relevant authorities. Has she done that ?

    And how seriously are you taking Boris's side of the story ?
    A proven liar with a proven history of sexual misconduct?
    Clearly there's no need for any action by the police or any other relevant authority as you've pronounced the verdict.

    Would you now like to pass the sentence.
    Your argumentative approach on this one seems to be consistent straw-manning.
    Why don't you address the points actually made ?
    What points ?

    If there is anything to this story it should be dealt with by the relevant authorities.

    Without that what do we have ?

    I'm against Boris so he's guilty or I'm for Boris so he's innocent.

    Plus not_on_fire's deeply troubling 'only people with the right attitudes' should be allowed to comment.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why don’t Americans instal proper level crossings? The noise of trains hooting as they cross each road echoes across every railway town in the States, day or night. Here I am on the veranda trying to enjoy a quiet glass of wine in searing heat (still above 30C at 5pm) whilst looking across at Chatanooga, and some impossibly long and noisy choo choo is slowly inching out of town.

    A professional friend of mine left Atlanta because the miserably hot and humid summers were “never-ending”. He said that every year he’d convince himself that it would all be over by the end of September, sometimes to be confronted by 90 degree heat for another fortnight!

    It’s tough, isn’t it. We moan about our miserable UK weather, yet come somewhere like this where I am sweating profusely just sitting here out in the open, with walking around even slowly at lunchtime worse still, and it doesn’t take long to appreciate the benefits of a mild climate. Before mentioning the supersize mozzies. People here say it isn’t normally like this in early Fall, but looking back at recent years, increasingly it is.
    SE England must have one of the most underrated climates in the world. Rather dry, but enough rain to keep the land green. Generally pleasantly warm summers. Rarely hot, and even when hot the heatwaves last only two or three days at most. Long summer evenings to make the heart sing.
    And if you go a few hundred miles north the climate deteriorates markedly. It must be one of the reasons for our persistent north-south divide (speaking as someone who has made the move south and would struggle to return).
    Very perceptive. Yes I think this sudden, marked deterioration in weather explains a lot about the divided British psyche. London (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    It's like Paris being on the cote d'Azur, in a French context. This breeds intense resentment. It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    There is a similar meteorological watershed in France. Somewhere immediately south of Lyon the Med suddenly begins: palms flourish, the tiles are ochre, every house has shutters, people gesticulate more.

  • Options

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    There's a thread on netweather with this exact argument. On the one hand you have people enjoying "proper autumn weather" and then there are people thinking about flooding, or people who have to work outside.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,631

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    100% with you there Nick. I also like heavy rain, particularly if it shines afterwards. I have no issue with getting soaked as long as I don't get cold. I like a warm spring/autumn day but hate the heat.

    However I have a Scottish wife who never ever wants to see drizzle again and who gets depressed by it.
  • Options
    Fishing said:

    Thanks to all for the kind words about my article anyway.

    It was a very good article - thank you.
  • Options

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    Moderation in weather is a good thing.

    But as in so many other things public discourse is dominated by people who prefer an extreme situation.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    Isn't the risk then a sequence that goes
    1. VONC and emergency government.
    2. Revoke "while the new government works out what's going on"
    3. Publication of the deal with Hungary
    4. Can't see Boris's popularity surviving that
    Revoke is still a Remainer wet dream. Not happening.

    Not when you have a fixed deadline and a deal on the table. Even if it is May's Shit Deal, unaltered.
    I think Orban would come under *quite a lot of* pressure if the other 26 were minded to extend. However.. if it happened..

    The calculations will be "which outcome damages Boris and the Tories most and can be made to look like his fault?" and "is the opposition sufficiently unanimous to choose such an outcome?".

    I can't see the ERG voting for Deal (or the DUP if the backstop remains), although most ex-Tory rebels probably would. So it relies on quite a few Lab votes (or more abstentions).

    It would take some chutzpah for the opposition to actively allow No Deal, having said their primary concern was to stop it. That said, they - along with many others - were rather more robust than they should have been in opposing an "evil baby eating Tory Brexit". So they're going to need a squirt of WD40 on the gears to go into reverse.

    And I think they'd struggle to get a majority for Revoke, even in an emergency (because Labour wouldn't get unanimity, and the number of Tories/ex-Tories willing to countenance that is very low)

    So I guess most likely in such a circumstance is Labour either actively sitting it out or being sufficiently split to get Deal over the line, with the consolation prize of being able to harp on about a damaging Tory Brexit.

    What happens then with an early election? Enough numbers to VONC and go for a rainbow coalition renegotiating the PD? Or does Boris get to own it?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625

    Nigelb said:


    Only to gammons who haven’t felt a lady’s legs in years.

    Yet it wasn't mentioned two years ago when there multiple stories of this type.
    You do realise that attitudes such as this are why women don’t speak out about these kind of incidents in the first place? They know that immediately a small army of men with attitudes like yours will come out to belittle the incident or claim they were lying.
    So you would prefer that only people with permitted views are allowed to comment and nobody ever allowed to ask inconvenient questions.

    The not_on_fire road to thoughtcrime.
    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than instinctively assuming a distressing allegation from which the victim stands to gain little has been made up.
    I haven't assumed anything, I simply made a relevant comment.

    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than using racially derogatory abuse to people who point out facts you find inconvenient as humbugger did.

    And do you really think people 'stand to gain little' by allegations about top politicians ?
    The individual concerned personally stands to gain very little. I see you are still failing to take her or complaints seriously.
    How do you suppose we should do that ?

    My advice would be to report such incidents to the relevant authorities. Has she done that ?

    And how seriously are you taking Boris's side of the story ?
    A proven liar with a proven history of sexual misconduct?
    Clearly there's no need for any action by the police or any other relevant authority as you've pronounced the verdict.

    Would you now like to pass the sentence.
    Your argumentative approach on this one seems to be consistent straw-manning.
    Why don't you address the points actually made ?
    What points ?

    Most of the replies you made to not_on_fire addressed an argument he didn't make.
  • Options
    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
    IT'S A TRAP
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Nigelb said:


    Only to gammons who haven’t felt a lady’s legs in years.

    Yet it wasn't mentioned two years ago when there multiple stories of this type.
    You do realise that attitudes such as this are why women don’t speak out about these kind of incidents in the first place? They know that immediately a small army of men with attitudes like yours will come out to belittle the incident or claim they were lying.
    So you would prefer that only people with permitted views are allowed to comment and nobody ever allowed to ask inconvenient questions.

    The not_on_fire road to thoughtcrime.
    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than instinctively assuming a distressing allegation from which the victim stands to gain little has been made up.
    I haven't assumed anything, I simply made a relevant comment.

    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than using racially derogatory abuse to people who point out facts you find inconvenient as humbugger did.

    And do you really think people 'stand to gain little' by allegations about top politicians ?
    The individual concerned personally stands to gain very little. I see you are still failing to take her or complaints seriously.
    How do you suppose we should do that ?

    My advice would be to report such incidents to the relevant authorities. Has she done that ?

    And how seriously are you taking Boris's side of the story ?
    A proven liar with a proven history of sexual misconduct?
    Clearly there's no need for any action by the police or any other relevant authority as you've pronounced the verdict.

    Would you now like to pass the sentence.
    Your argumentative approach on this one seems to be consistent straw-manning.
    Why don't you address the points actually made ?
    What points ?

    If there is anything to this story it should be dealt with by the relevant authorities.

    Without that what do we have ?

    I'm against Boris so he's guilty or I'm for Boris so he's innocent.

    Plus not_on_fire's deeply troubling 'only people with the right attitudes' should be allowed to comment.
    S/he didn't say you aren't allowed to comment, s/he was saying you're part of the problem. S/he is right.
  • Options

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    Moderation in weather is a good thing.

    But as in so many other things public discourse is dominated by people who prefer an extreme situation.
    Hear, hear Mr Palmer. The older I get the more hot and humid weather makes me grumpy and unable to think clearly.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625
    Fishing said:

    Thanks to all for the kind words about my article anyway.

    Entirely merited.
    Every time I attempt to express a coherent thought over more than a paragraph, I realise the effort that must go in to most headers.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Do you think you've helped, with your dyspeptic tirades against thick, bigoted Leavers?

    One of the reasons our discourse is tarnished is the free rein Remainers give themselves, to insult half the country. Matthew Parris is a good example: happy to describe 17 million voters as racist. And he's normally a mild voice.

    When you freely abuse people like this, they feel entitled to abuse you right back, and so we spiral down into the rhetorical toilet.

    Both sides need to stop. Neither side seems capable of this restraint.

  • Options
    Noo said:

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    You must be on cloud 9 today then ;)
    Is that the really big black one? :smiley:
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
    OK the southeast. Ho hum.

    I'm not ignoring the obvious fact that the SE also has nastier crime, worse traffic, higher prices, etc. I'm just talking about perceptions.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Byronic said:

    Do you think you've helped, with your dyspeptic tirades against thick, bigoted Leavers?

    One of the reasons our discourse is tarnished is the free rein Remainers give themselves, to insult half the country. Matthew Parris is a good example: happy to describe 17 million voters as racist. And he's normally a mild voice.

    When you freely abuse people like this, they feel entitled to abuse you right back, and so we spiral down into the rhetorical toilet.

    Both sides need to stop. Neither side seems capable of this restraint.

    Reminder: you're the guy who was threatening people on here a few weeks back.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why don’t Americans instal proper level crossings? The noise of trains hooting as they cross each road echoes across every railway town in the States, day or night. Here I am on the veranda trying to enjoy a quiet glass of wine in searing heat (still above 30C at 5pm) whilst looking across at Chatanooga, and some impossibly long and noisy choo choo is slowly inching out of town.

    A professional friend of mine left Atlanta because the miserably hot and humid summers were “never-ending”. He said that every year he’d convince himself that it would all be over by the end of September, sometimes to be confronted by 90 degree heat for another fortnight!

    It’s tough, isn’t it. We moan about our miserable UK weather, yet come somewhere like this where I am sweating profusely just sitting here out in the open, with walking around even slowly at lunchtime worse still, and it doesn’t take long to appreciate the benefits of a mild climate. Before mentioning the supersize mozzies. People here say it isn’t normally like this in early Fall, but looking back at recent years, increasingly it is.
    SE England must have one of the most underrated climates in the world. Rather dry, but enough rain to keep the land green. Generally pleasantly warm summers. Rarely hot, and even when hot the heatwaves last only two or three days at most. Long summer evenings to make the heart sing.
    And if you go a few hundred miles north the climate deteriorates markedly. It must be one of the reasons for our persistent north-south divide (speaking as someone who has made the move south and would struggle to return).
    Very perceptive. Yes I think this sudden, marked deterioration in weather explains a lot about the divided British psyche. London (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    It's like Paris being on the cote d'Azur, in a French context. This breeds intense resentment. It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    There is a similar meteorological watershed in France. Somewhere immediately south of Lyon the Med suddenly begins: palms flourish, the tiles are ochre, every house has shutters, people gesticulate more.

    Sunderland is actually quite a dry city :wink:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunderland#Climate

    Anyway the big Brexit block is where the Midlands meets the North plus the east coast of southern England.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
    IT'S A TRAP
    As a highly successful male model, I am trained to notice landmines on the slip roads of dialogue.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Looks like En Marche UK is on March out the door. Rory says the only thing hes launching this week is his 4 year old son's toy boat
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    Someone pointed out that the battalions of the retired living in the south had greater numerical responsibility for the Leave vote than the northern industrial towns that are dominant in the Brexit narrative. So that doesn't quite fit with the meteorology as destiny argument, alas.

    There's a "grimness" weather statistic that combines sunshine hours, rainfall (and possibly temperature) into one number that can be used to compare how grim the weather is in different locations. They calculate it for the weather at the weather station in the Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, but I can't find a web page with a definition.

    I would suggest that would be a good statistic to use for this purpose (even if NP would define it differently).
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    Do you think you've helped, with your dyspeptic tirades against thick, bigoted Leavers?

    One of the reasons our discourse is tarnished is the free rein Remainers give themselves, to insult half the country. Matthew Parris is a good example: happy to describe 17 million voters as racist. And he's normally a mild voice.

    When you freely abuse people like this, they feel entitled to abuse you right back, and so we spiral down into the rhetorical toilet.

    Both sides need to stop. Neither side seems capable of this restraint.

    Reminder: you're the guy who was threatening people on here a few weeks back.
    For which I apologised, because my aggression (even if ironic) was ugly, nasty and wrong.

    Others should have my self awareness.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    Do you think you've helped, with your dyspeptic tirades against thick, bigoted Leavers?

    One of the reasons our discourse is tarnished is the free rein Remainers give themselves, to insult half the country. Matthew Parris is a good example: happy to describe 17 million voters as racist. And he's normally a mild voice.

    When you freely abuse people like this, they feel entitled to abuse you right back, and so we spiral down into the rhetorical toilet.

    Both sides need to stop. Neither side seems capable of this restraint.

    The absence of one poster on here marginally slowed the descent into the rhetorical toilet. But then like a bus with £350m on its side, there's always another one along in 5 minutes.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
    I specified SE England in my OP, for good reason!
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    It was a very good article - thank you.

    Yes, for sure, but slightly depressing.

    Or perhaps not. I would prefer Trump beaten at the ballot box than removed by 'globalist liberal elites'.
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
    @SeanT is a Cornishman :smiley:
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    new thread
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    eristdoof said:



    Having said that the weather here in Berlin today is horrible. Like a typical November day on the Pennines!

    A minor point that's always bugged me is that it's assumed that EVERYONE likes hot weather. Forecasters say brightly "We can look forward to a real scorcher tomorrow" or "I'm afraid there may be a drop of 5 degrees on Saturday". Lots of us are fine with 20-23 degrees, anything more starts to feel uncomfortable. Snow is good news unless you have to go somewhere distant. Light rain is pleasant. I know several people who feel the same - we're an invisible minority.
    Some of us are quite happy it’s getting cooler as the summer moves into autumn. Daytime temperatures in the Middle East now regularly below 40°C and heading closer to 35°C. Soon it’ll be barbecue season ;)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    tlg86 said:

    humbugger said:

    Morning everyone. Regardless of the truth of Edwardes allegations against Boris, the alleged incident appears to be towards the less serious spectrum of sexual assaults, and the fact that it's surfaced 20 years after the event and coincides with her joining the Sunday Times may look to some as being self serving and even politically motivated.

    Only to gammons who haven’t felt a lady’s legs in years.
    Yet it wasn't mentioned two years ago when there multiple stories of this type.
    You do realise that attitudes such as this are why women don’t speak out about these kind of incidents in the first place? They know that immediately a small army of men with attitudes like yours will come out to belittle the incident or claim they were lying.
    If this happened, she should go to the police rather than announce it to the world on Twatter.

    If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques.

    Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.
  • Options
    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:



    So you would prefer that only people with permitted views are allowed to comment and nobody ever allowed to ask inconvenient questions.

    The not_on_fire road to thoughtcrime.

    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than instinctively assuming a distressing allegation from which the victim stands to gain little has been made up.
    I haven't assumed anything, I simply made a relevant comment.

    It would certainly be better if you paused for thought rather than using racially derogatory abuse to people who point out facts you find inconvenient as humbugger did.

    And do you really think people 'stand to gain little' by allegations about top politicians ?
    The individual concerned personally stands to gain very little. I see you are still failing to take her or complaints seriously.
    How do you suppose we should do that ?

    My advice would be to report such incidents to the relevant authorities. Has she done that ?

    And how seriously are you taking Boris's side of the story ?
    A proven liar with a proven history of sexual misconduct?
    Clearly there's no need for any action by the police or any other relevant authority as you've pronounced the verdict.

    Would you now like to pass the sentence.
    Your argumentative approach on this one seems to be consistent straw-manning.
    Why don't you address the points actually made ?
    What points ?

    If there is anything to this story it should be dealt with by the relevant authorities.

    Without that what do we have ?

    I'm against Boris so he's guilty or I'm for Boris so he's innocent.

    Plus not_on_fire's deeply troubling 'only people with the right attitudes' should be allowed to comment.
    S/he didn't say you aren't allowed to comment, s/he was saying you're part of the problem. S/he is right.
    The 'you are part of the problem so go away' mentality.

    I'm saying that any issues should be dealt with by the relevant authorities.

    Why does that provoke such hostility ?

    Now let me suggest a different scenario in which it was a Labour or LibDem politicians about whom allegations were made.

    I'll speculate that we would get a different set of people supporting the allegations while others would go all quiet.

    And that is why it is better that it is the relevant authorities which investigate.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019

    Byronic said:

    It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    Someone pointed out that the battalions of the retired living in the south had greater numerical responsibility for the Leave vote than the northern industrial towns that are dominant in the Brexit narrative. So that doesn't quite fit with the meteorology as destiny argument, alas.

    There's a "grimness" weather statistic that combines sunshine hours, rainfall (and possibly temperature) into one number that can be used to compare how grim the weather is in different locations. They calculate it for the weather at the weather station in the Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, but I can't find a web page with a definition.

    I would suggest that would be a good statistic to use for this purpose (even if NP would define it differently).
    This is a rather brilliant essay (with fascinating index) on the best places to live in the world, taking into account weather plus crime, costs, etc

    https://medium.com/@BambouClub/which-city-has-the-best-climate-in-the-world-355e013e9e95

    Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.

    That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    It's not completely impossible, but I'm highly sceptical. Viktor Orban is probably the cleverest politician operating in the EU at the moment (and quite possibly the most venal). They'd have to offer him something pretty spectacular for him to risk pissing off the rest of the EU to that extent and it's not at all obvious what that might be.
    Maybe some military hardware who knows, it is of course only a rumour and could turn out to be nothing but if they did manage it and Orban did veto further extension it would be a spectacular coup from Boris and Cummings and effectively make the Benn Bill redundant
    Which would give Parliament a clear Noel Edmonds choice following the EU summit.

    The problem of course being that discussions of extension within the EU would happen after the Commons have voted down the deal - which they will if they don’t think No-Deal will happen.

    For this to work, EU leaders need to say at the summit, or beforehand, that there’s definitely no further extension possible.

    Then maybe we finally get past this.
    Provided the EU also agrees to remove the backstop or enough Labour MPs agree to back the Withdrawal Agreement and a Northern Ireland only backstop to overcome DUP opposition.

    I still think both unlikely and it would need a Tory majority after the next general election to pass the latter
    Do you think Labour vote against the deal, if the EU make it clear there’s no extension on offer and it’s either deal or no deal?

    The other alternative is that the EU offer only a very long extension, two or three years. This serves dual purposes (for them) of getting it out of the news and increasing U.K. uncertainty.
    Isn't the problem here that the WA can't be brought back in this session of parliament?

    We would need to prorogue and have a new session, QS etc.
    Yes, would need to be a new session for the same WA, or a slightly amended WA from the EU summit.
    Is there room for the speaker to be creative? The removal of the opportunity for extension materially changes the impact of the WA so it is a different bill even if the wording is the same?
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Cyclefree said:



    Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.

    It's a good point. From what I can see, people support Boris because (I) he's entertaining, and (ii) he will deliver Brexit.

    The opposition need some form of kryptonite to neutralise these. The lech stories just feed (i) (Sadly).

  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:


    That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.

    Many moons ago (OK, 1993), Manchester bid to host the 2000 Olympics. The winner was Sydney.

    What wasn't shouted about at the time, was that Manchester has more hours per day of sunshine in September than Sydney. Tru dat.

  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    Isn't the risk then a sequence that goes
    1. VONC and emergency government.
    2. Revoke "while the new government works out what's going on"
    3. Publication of the deal with Hungary
    4. Can't see Boris's popularity surviving that
    Revoke is still a Remainer wet dream. Not happening.

    Not when you have a fixed deadline and a deal on the table. Even if it is May's Shit Deal, unaltered.
    I think Orban would come under *quite a lot of* pressure if the other 26 were minded to extend. However.. if it happened..

    The calculations will be "which outcome damages Boris and the Tories most and can be made to look like his fault?" and "is the opposition sufficiently unanimous to choose such an outcome?".

    I can't see the ERG voting for Deal (or the DUP if the backstop remains), although most ex-Tory rebels probably would. So it relies on quite a few Lab votes (or more abstentions).

    It would take some chutzpah for the opposition to actively allow No Deal, having said their primary concern was to stop it. That said, they - along with many others - were rather more robust than they should have been in opposing an "evil baby eating Tory Brexit". So they're going to need a squirt of WD40 on the gears to go into reverse.

    And I think they'd struggle to get a majority for Revoke, even in an emergency (because Labour wouldn't get unanimity, and the number of Tories/ex-Tories willing to countenance that is very low)

    So I guess most likely in such a circumstance is Labour either actively sitting it out or being sufficiently split to get Deal over the line, with the consolation prize of being able to harp on about a damaging Tory Brexit.

    What happens then with an early election? Enough numbers to VONC and go for a rainbow coalition renegotiating the PD? Or does Boris get to own it?
    The agreement whatever with a referendum would fly through although Grieve has just said on TV it would need the government to provide the funding.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited September 2019
    One point that I left out of the article for reasons of space - somebody below mentions the possibility of primary challenges to those Republicans who defect. That can be a threat, but is a much weaker one than it seems:

    - almost 90% fail (641 out of 723 in one study I read), and the majority of the successful ones are due to scandals, redistricting or perceived incompetence.
    - It's not really a threat for next year's election - primary candidates have to register and collect their signatures by January or February of next year (depending on the state), which means organisation should really start next month, almost certainly after a Senate vote will have taken place.
    - For the classes of 2016 and 2018 it may be more problematic, but of course much else could have happened by then.
    - There are considerable costs to running a serious primary challenger, which is why they rarely get national backing.

    So I'm inclined to place less emphasis on this threat than others might.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Tabman said:

    Byronic said:


    That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.

    Many moons ago (OK, 1993), Manchester bid to host the 2000 Olympics. The winner was Sydney.

    What wasn't shouted about at the time, was that Manchester has higher hours by day of sunshine in September than Sydney. Tru dat.

    Sydney is quite strange, meteorologically. You expect it to have a perfect Mediterranean climate, because of its beach culture, but it definitely doesn't. There's too much rain and too many storms.

    Also it can get terrifyingly hot, and the threat of deadly fires menaces its outer suburbs.

    In other words, it is infinitely nicer than Manchester.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    Someone pointed out that the battalions of the retired living in the south had greater numerical responsibility for the Leave vote than the northern industrial towns that are dominant in the Brexit narrative. So that doesn't quite fit with the meteorology as destiny argument, alas.

    There's a "grimness" weather statistic that combines sunshine hours, rainfall (and possibly temperature) into one number that can be used to compare how grim the weather is in different locations. They calculate it for the weather at the weather station in the Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, but I can't find a web page with a definition.

    I would suggest that would be a good statistic to use for this purpose (even if NP would define it differently).
    This is a rather brilliant essay (with fascinating index) on the best places to live in the world, taking into account weather plus crime, costs, etc

    https://medium.com/@BambouClub/which-city-has-the-best-climate-in-the-world-355e013e9e95

    Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.

    That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
    Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.

    OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.

    Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,977
    This is shocking, what kind of a state is UK in..........
    https://twitter.com/SteveDoherty1/status/1177960448915902464
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    Tabman said:

    Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    You haven't spent much time in Cornwall, have you?
    @SeanT is a Cornishman :smiley:
    Byronic is without doubt the most obvious sockie account I've seen in years.

    I particularly liked the announcement that Byronic was off to Greece while the following day SeanT announced his arrival back there.
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Tabman said:

    Byronic said:


    That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.

    Many moons ago (OK, 1993), Manchester bid to host the 2000 Olympics. The winner was Sydney.

    What wasn't shouted about at the time, was that Manchester has higher hours by day of sunshine in September than Sydney. Tru dat.

    Sydney is quite strange, meteorologically. You expect it to have a perfect Mediterranean climate, because of its beach culture, but it definitely doesn't. There's too much rain and too many storms.

    Also it can get terrifyingly hot, and the threat of deadly fires menaces its outer suburbs.

    In other words, it is infinitely nicer than Manchester.
    When was the last time you were there? I lived there in the late 90s, when a transition was underway. Going back recently with Ms Tabman jr for an open day, I was struck by the inversion of the city. The money is now in the centre, and the poverty on the edge. I think this is a global trend.

    (That's Manchester I'm referring to. Haven't been to Sydney since 2003).
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,977
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why don’t Americans instal proper level crossings? The noise of trains hooting as they cross each road echoes across every railway town in the States, day or night. Here I am on the veranda trying to enjoy a quiet glass of wine in searing heat (still above 30C at 5pm) whilst looking across at Chatanooga, and some impossibly long and noisy choo choo is slowly inching out of town.

    A professional friend of mine left Atlanta because the miserably hot and humid summers were “never-ending”. He said that every year he’d convince himself that it would all be over by the end of September, sometimes to be confronted by 90 degree heat for another fortnight!

    It’s tough, isn’t it. We moan about our miserable UK weather, yet come somewhere like this where I am sweating profusely just sitting here out in the open, with walking around even slowly at lunchtime worse still, and it doesn’t take long to appreciate the benefits of a mild climate. Before mentioning the supersize mozzies. People here say it isn’t normally like this in early Fall, but looking back at recent years, increasingly it is.
    SE England must have one of the most underrated climates in the world. Rather dry, but enough rain to keep the land green. Generally pleasantly warm summers. Rarely hot, and even when hot the heatwaves last only two or three days at most. Long summer evenings to make the heart sing.
    And if you go a few hundred miles north the climate deteriorates markedly. It must be one of the reasons for our persistent north-south divide (speaking as someone who has made the move south and would struggle to return).
    Very perceptive. Yes I think this sudden, marked deterioration in weather explains a lot about the divided British psyche. London (and the south in general) isn't just richer and better connected and more favoured with culture, food, transport, and so on, it even has the best weather.

    It's like Paris being on the cote d'Azur, in a French context. This breeds intense resentment. It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    There is a similar meteorological watershed in France. Somewhere immediately south of Lyon the Med suddenly begins: palms flourish, the tiles are ochre, every house has shutters, people gesticulate more.

    absolute bollox
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,775
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    It probably explains Brexit: too many wet days in Sunderland.

    Weathewise it's interesting to pin point "where" the weather declines. Somewhere just north of Shrewsbury? It tallies with our traditonal conceptions of "north".

    Someone pointed out that the battalions of the retired living in the south had greater numerical responsibility for the Leave vote than the northern industrial towns that are dominant in the Brexit narrative. So that doesn't quite fit with the meteorology as destiny argument, alas.

    There's a "grimness" weather statistic that combines sunshine hours, rainfall (and possibly temperature) into one number that can be used to compare how grim the weather is in different locations. They calculate it for the weather at the weather station in the Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, but I can't find a web page with a definition.

    I would suggest that would be a good statistic to use for this purpose (even if NP would define it differently).
    This is a rather brilliant essay (with fascinating index) on the best places to live in the world, taking into account weather plus crime, costs, etc

    https://medium.com/@BambouClub/which-city-has-the-best-climate-in-the-world-355e013e9e95

    Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.

    That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
    Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.

    OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.

    Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
    Some of us, with freckles, red hair and utterly fair skin, actually loathe strong sun - presumably we are evolved for the climate in Ireland and Scotland. Though there is a genetic tendency to MS in the NE of Scotland which may apparently be exacerbated by vitD deficiency.

    But you're lumping Scotland into one. There's a massive difference between the cold rainforests of the Atlantic coast and the wet desert of central Rum, and the sunniness of Tiree and of the rain-shadowed golfing coast of Angus, Fife and Lothian.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    It's not completely impossible, but I'm highly sceptical. Viktor Orban is probably the cleverest politician operating in the EU at the moment (and quite possibly the most venal). They'd have to offer him something pretty spectacular for him to risk pissing off the rest of the EU to that extent and it's not at all obvious what that might be.
    Maybe some military hardware who knows, it is of course only a rumour and could turn out to be nothing but if they did manage it and Orban did veto further extension it would be a spectacular coup from Boris and Cummings and effectively make the Benn Bill redundant
    Which would give Parliament a clear Noel Edmonds choice following the EU summit.

    The problem of course being that discussions of extension within the EU would happen after the Commons have voted down the deal - which they will if they don’t think No-Deal will happen.

    For this to work, EU leaders need to say at the summit, or beforehand, that there’s definitely no further extension possible.

    Then maybe we finally get past this.
    Provided the EU also agrees to remove the backstop or enough Labour MPs agree to back the Withdrawal Agreement and a Northern Ireland only backstop to overcome DUP opposition.

    I still think both unlikely and it would need a Tory majority after the next general election to pass the latter
    Do you think Labour vote against the deal, if the EU make it clear there’s no extension on offer and it’s either deal or no deal?

    The other alternative is that the EU offer only a very long extension, two or three years. This serves dual purposes (for them) of getting it out of the news and increasing U.K. uncertainty.
    Isn't the problem here that the WA can't be brought back in this session of parliament?

    We would need to prorogue and have a new session, QS etc.
    Yes, would need to be a new session for the same WA, or a slightly amended WA from the EU summit.
    Is there room for the speaker to be creative? The removal of the opportunity for extension materially changes the impact of the WA so it is a different bill even if the wording is the same?
    I’m not sure anything can be put past the ‘creative ingenuity’ of the Speaker at this point.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    Scott_P said:
    Has his spokesman also been feeling women up?
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Day 1 of lectures today. 9am Public Law. 10am EU Law. Fitting.

    Good luck with your studies and I hope you enjoy your course.
This discussion has been closed.