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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap by 4 with Opinium

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap by 4 with Opinium

Latest Opinium hasCON 36% – 1LAB 24% +3LD 20% +3BRX 11%-1

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    Still a 12% Tory lead as the Tories begin their conference and the LDs now closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    A Sicilian TV chef has been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing after police found cannabis at his home, Italian media report. Mr Chiaramonte described himself as an "agro-food consultant for third millennium cuisine",

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49864973
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are we expecting any more polls tonight?
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1178021100556619780
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    In 2010 Labour were down to 22% in the polls a few days before the GE, they scored 29% on polling day. I think opinion polls understate Labour at the moment. I cannot see poor voters who voted Leave and previously voted Labour suddenly voting Tory. A low income voter is not going to vote for BoJo and the Tories who think people with higher income and wealth should get tax cuts that will mean less money for the poor...
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    b) QTWTAIN
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited September 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Will Jennifer Arcuri be dancing round any of them?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Still a 12% Tory lead as the Tories begin their conference and the LDs now closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories

    Be patient. As we speak, Dominic Cummings is sending to selected journalists details of the financial arrangements made for 17 more of Boris Johnson's girlfriends, in the hope that it will get his poll lead up to 20%.

    A new series of party political broadcasts is in preparation, loosely modelled on the "Carry On" Films. The first is code-named "Carry On Up The Pole."
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Opinium and YouGov have a different sample makeup to ComRes, Delta, Survation etc. But it would be interesting to see the trend in the other polls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited September 2019
    The_Taxman said:

    In 2010 Labour were down to 22% in the polls a few days before the GE, they scored 29% on polling day. I think opinion polls understate Labour at the moment. I cannot see poor voters who voted Leave and previously voted Labour suddenly voting Tory. A low income voter is not going to vote for BoJo and the Tories who think people with higher income and wealth should get tax cuts that will mean less money for the poor...

    So what it is skilled working class C2s the Tories are leading with not poor DEs while middle class Remainer ABC1s who voted Labour in 2017 are now voting LD
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1178021100556619780

    No Labour's policy meant you lost all your benefits working over 16 hours a week unlike universal credit
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Oh dear, Nige done a woopsie.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1177932689321730050?s=20
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Oh dear, Nige done a woopsie.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1177932689321730050?s=20

    Are politicians no longer allowed to promise "a bonfire of the quangos"?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Oh dear, Nige done a woopsie.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1177932689321730050?s=20

    Not to his supporters.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Theuniondivvie said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Will Jennifer Arcuri be dancing round any of them?
    Did he forget to capitalise the "P"?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Theuniondivvie said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Will Jennifer Arcuri be dancing round any of them?
    As long as it's not a lap of Boris...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    OT. If any one wants an interesting piece of nostalgia 'Marianne and Leonard' is on TV this evening. I saw it at the cinema a couple of months ago and despite the clear paucity of material it's still unmissable.

    As Is Almodovar's 'Julieta' also on at 9.00pm and one of his best.

    Both much more interesting than Johnson's various floozies. Talking of which I like Alastair's Lord Sanwich story .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited September 2019
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Is that Labour's conference bounce?

    Hahahaha.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    Chapeau, sir.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Labour is actually only up 2 points. The Observer report is inaccurate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    ...many voters, but crossover coming shortly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    justin124 said:

    Labour is actually only up 2 points. The Observer report is inaccurate.

    Fake news?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mexicanpete said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour is actually only up 2 points. The Observer report is inaccurate.

    Fake news?
    Shoddy journalism more likely!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    A large % of the population but let’s be honest no politician has the majority of the population behind them and haven’t for a long time it is ridiculous though for people to claim Johnson’s 36% is the majority of voters.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    So only 12 behind....... lol go Jezbollah!!

    No seriously, go
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    justin124 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour is actually only up 2 points. The Observer report is inaccurate.

    Fake news?
    Shoddy journalism more likely!
    Grauniad typo?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    OT. If any one wants an interesting piece of nostalgia 'Marianne and Leonard' is on TV this evening. I saw it at the cinema a couple of months ago and despite the clear paucity of material it's still unmissable.

    As Is Almodovar's 'Julieta' also on at 9.00pm and one of his best.

    Both much more interesting than Johnson's various floozies. Talking of which I like Alastair's Lord Sanwich story .

    Omg another Almodovar fan ! I’m recording it.

    My faves though are All About My Mother. I also love Volver in terms of his newer stuff .

    On a different note give Wild Tales a watch , it’s an outrageous black comedy about revenge from Argentina with 6 different tales , it unfortunately has a beginning which was mirrored true life , the film came out before that tragic true event happened .
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    justin124 said:

    Labour is actually only up 2 points. The Observer report is inaccurate.

    Turd polishing by the Granuaid.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    The_Taxman said:

    In 2010 Labour were down to 22% in the polls a few days before the GE, they scored 29% on polling day. I think opinion polls understate Labour at the moment. I cannot see poor voters who voted Leave and previously voted Labour suddenly voting Tory. A low income voter is not going to vote for BoJo and the Tories who think people with higher income and wealth should get tax cuts that will mean less money for the poor...

    No of course they won't vote Tory. They'll vote Brexit.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Mexicanpete said:

    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    ...many voters, but crossover coming shortly.
    Who knows? Regardless. Corbyn and Johnson will each still be "detested" by more people than support them.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Mexicanpete said:

    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    ...many voters, but crossover coming shortly.
    Not with corbyn I think
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RochdalePioneers said:

    The_Taxman said:

    In 2010 Labour were down to 22% in the polls a few days before the GE, they scored 29% on polling day. I think opinion polls understate Labour at the moment. I cannot see poor voters who voted Leave and previously voted Labour suddenly voting Tory. A low income voter is not going to vote for BoJo and the Tories who think people with higher income and wealth should get tax cuts that will mean less money for the poor...

    No of course they won't vote Tory. They'll vote Brexit.
    Or they won’t vote
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    nichomar said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    ...many voters, but crossover coming shortly.
    Not with corbyn I think
    The crossover could well be a result of Boris' ascending trajectory rather than a declining dislike for Corbyn.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    As Francois Mitterand said after he was told the latest public opinion poll showed his disapproval rating at 85%. "Well as I'm here for another 4 years that would seem to be their problem not mine"

  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    According to the latest UK-Elect Beta version that Opinium poll would lead to C 344 L 194 SNP 51 LD 37. (If anyone wants to try the forecast themselves, to look at the individual seat forecasts and point out any obvious errors, see the downloads page on the UK-Elect website. The new version is an attempt to take account of local brexit based conditions, but forecasting is proving a bit tricky currently!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Floater said:

    So only 12 behind....... lol go Jezbollah!!

    No seriously, go

    He is. Once he has taken Labour to an infamous defeat.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    NYT:


    Impeachment Is an Act of Desperation
    By Christopher Buskirk

    "Maybe Democrats have secretly given up on Mr. Biden and see impeachment as a way to satisfy the demands of the activist base and at the same time get rid of him and ease the path for another candidate. I suspect that a lot of Democrats in the superdelegate and donor class have concluded that Mr. Biden is not capable of reassembling the Obama coalition that won the White House twice, and are also increasingly uncomfortable over Mr. Biden’s ability to withstand the rigors of a campaign against Mr. Trump."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    What was it Mandy Rice- Davies once said?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    A contemptible former politician pontificates on the public's contempt for politicians ...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    More dodgy conference polling but 12% is bloody good for Con in the cirumstances. :D
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Mexicanpete said:

    nichomar said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    ...many voters, but crossover coming shortly.
    Not with corbyn I think
    The crossover could well be a result of Boris' ascending trajectory rather than a declining dislike for Corbyn.
    Or a plague on both their houses
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Johnson promises 40 new hospitals announces Telegraph
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:


    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    A contemptible former politician pontificates on the public's contempt for politicians ...
    Ashcroft isn’t a politician
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019
    nichomar said:

    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    Corbyn detested by........
    A large % of the population but let’s be honest no politician has the majority of the population behind them and haven’t for a long time it is ridiculous though for people to claim Johnson’s 36% is the majority of voters.
    You're absolutely right. But for the life of me I cannot understand why those who support Labour continue to support the excremental leadership they have.

    As a slightly to the right of centre person I would willingly tolerate, maybe even support a moderate, sane, intelligent left of centre Labour proposition - committed to public services whilst encouraging and supporting, not penalising and demonising private enterprise. Especially when faced with the Conservative choice at the moment.

    Corbyn is like a Black Hole. He distorts political space-time, warping all those around him into greater and greater extremism. Corbyn and his merry band of Marxists opened the door to extreme political thought in the UK. His Momentum fan boys opened the door to ever more cultish adoration and deliberate ignorance of the mans complete unsuitability to hold high office. Soemthing we had never seen ion the UK before.

    Ironically we actually don't know a lot about Boris' domestic agenda, yet, as he is only being seen through the telescope of Brexit. I doubt he would be extreme on the right as Corbyn is on the left.

    If there was a David Milibandesque character heading Labour now Labour would be on course to the biggest majority ever seen. Hell, I would even vote for such a person.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178035899914952706
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rottenborough said:

    NYT:


    Impeachment Is an Act of Desperation
    By Christopher Buskirk

    "Maybe Democrats have secretly given up on Mr. Biden and see impeachment as a way to satisfy the demands of the activist base and at the same time get rid of him and ease the path for another candidate. I suspect that a lot of Democrats in the superdelegate and donor class have concluded that Mr. Biden is not capable of reassembling the Obama coalition that won the White House twice, and are also increasingly uncomfortable over Mr. Biden’s ability to withstand the rigors of a campaign against Mr. Trump."

    Well that's bollocks of course. The Dems have been building slowly up to this for some weeks. The Biden stuff has catalysed it, to be sure, but it was coming anyway.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178043729904590850
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    nichomar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/1178032088748118016?s=21

    Johnson detested by 64% of the population
    ....and Jo Swinson by 80%?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    rottenborough said:

    NYT:


    Impeachment Is an Act of Desperation
    By Christopher Buskirk

    "Maybe Democrats have secretly given up on Mr. Biden and see impeachment as a way to satisfy the demands of the activist base and at the same time get rid of him and ease the path for another candidate. I suspect that a lot of Democrats in the superdelegate and donor class have concluded that Mr. Biden is not capable of reassembling the Obama coalition that won the White House twice, and are also increasingly uncomfortable over Mr. Biden’s ability to withstand the rigors of a campaign against Mr. Trump."

    Indeed. A cynic may well suggest - especially given the timing - that this story is at least as much aimed at getting Biden, as it is about getting Trump.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    TGOHF2 said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour is actually only up 2 points. The Observer report is inaccurate.

    Turd polishing by the Granuaid.
    So the thread header is inaccurate. But to be more serious in a little while we might get another poll saying virtually the oppposite. The high degree of volatility just makes the poll companies seem as incompetent as our governing classes.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Charles said:

    Chris said:


    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    A contemptible former politician pontificates on the public's contempt for politicians ...
    Ashcroft isn’t a politician
    Almost like you didn't read the post you replied to
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    More dodgy conference polling but 12% is bloody good for Con in the cirumstances. :D

    It is indeed - but is only half the lead the Tories had at the beginning of the 2017 election campaign. Moreover, the stronger LD vote means that a 12% lead produces a much smaller majority than would have been the case at that election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    ukelect said:

    According to the latest UK-Elect Beta version that Opinium poll would lead to C 344 L 194 SNP 51 LD 37. (If anyone wants to try the forecast themselves, to look at the individual seat forecasts and point out any obvious errors, see the downloads page on the UK-Elect website. The new version is an attempt to take account of local brexit based conditions, but forecasting is proving a bit tricky currently!)

    Nice to hear from you, sir. Your website is here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/ . Good luck.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178043729904590850

    It of course *wouldn't* force the UK to roll over to anything Brussels demands, but we've gone so far into the post-truth world I just feel what's the sodding point of trying to correct it.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,539
    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    The PB Community is always Hungary for more election predictions.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sunday Times infering Boris might have a woman problem, at the very least he might wonder how to keep his current girlfriend away from the paper.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited September 2019
    rottenborough said:

    Johnson promises 40 new hospitals announces Telegraph

    Is he paying for that with the no deal sunny uplands dividend ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    Charles said:

    Chris said:


    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    A contemptible former politician pontificates on the public's contempt for politicians ...
    Ashcroft isn’t a politician
    Hence the word "former"?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Verulamius said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    The PB Community is always Hungary for more election predictions.
    There's Nor-way they'll be accurate though.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    ozymandias said:

    Verulamius said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    The PB Community is always Hungary for more election predictions.
    There's Nor-way they'll be accurate though.
    Romaniers will not accept Norway as a soluntion ;)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Noo said:

    Charles said:

    Chris said:


    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    A contemptible former politician pontificates on the public's contempt for politicians ...
    Ashcroft isn’t a politician
    Almost like you didn't read the post you replied to
    To be fair, it was quite long. Eleven whole words to take in.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    ozymandias said:



    If there was a David Milibandesque character heading Labour now Labour would be on course to the biggest majority ever seen. Hell, I would even vote for such a person.

    It really wouldn't (for one thing a David Miliband type would never promise to end tuition fees).

    But its a fantasy nice, comfortable centrists persist in.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178043729904590850

    It of course *wouldn't* force the UK to roll over to anything Brussels demands, but we've gone so far into the post-truth world I just feel what's the sodding point of trying to correct it.
    It is only the MoS. You should never take the stories in such a child's comic seriously...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    nico67 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Johnson promises 40 new hospitals announces Telegraph

    Is he paying for that with the no deal sunny uplands dividend ?
    Also known as the Bus Bonanza.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178043729904590850

    It of course *wouldn't* force the UK to roll over to anything Brussels demands, but we've gone so far into the post-truth world I just feel what's the sodding point of trying to correct it.
    I understand your frustration . It’s pointless . The UK has now gone full on Trump. The Tories just lie non stop now and are helped along by the right wing press .
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178035899914952706

    I presume the headline refers to the current govt's apparent cavalier attitude to the law...?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178035899914952706

    These mail pages must be parody fake news? No serious journalist would publish these items when everything is so febrile wouldbthey?
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    viewcode said:

    ukelect said:

    According to the latest UK-Elect Beta version that Opinium poll would lead to C 344 L 194 SNP 51 LD 37. (If anyone wants to try the forecast themselves, to look at the individual seat forecasts and point out any obvious errors, see the downloads page on the UK-Elect website. The new version is an attempt to take account of local brexit based conditions, but forecasting is proving a bit tricky currently!)

    Nice to hear from you, sir. Your website is here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/ . Good luck.
    Thanks for the comment and link! Appreciated!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Verulamius said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    The PB Community is always Hungary for more election predictions.
    In the run up to Xmas the PB community is Hungary for Turkey.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    So in the week Boris broke the law, lied to the Queen, is agreed by all meda outlets to be the most disgusting human being to threaten civiliation since Genghis Khan, his polling is down by.....one point?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Mail throws petrol (supplied by Cummings no doubt) onto the bonfire:


    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019
    felix said:

    Verulamius said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    The PB Community is always Hungary for more election predictions.
    In the run up to Xmas the PB community is Hungary for Turkey.
    So they'll all be Russian home to get out the best China.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    Yes, Letts!
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1178047880977883137?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    OldKingCole said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Have no firm information but I would guess that we will see three or four poles tonight
    Bloody Poles, coming over here, providing a snapshot of public opinion based on a representative sample of the electorate.
    The problem with all poles over here is that nobody Czechs them properly.
    I don't get that, it's all Greek to me.

    Can we Finnish with the puns please?
    Yes, Letts!
    It clearly Yanks your chain.....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Beibheirli_C said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178035899914952706

    I presume the headline refers to the current govt's apparent cavalier attitude to the law...?
    The papers which supported fascism in the 1930s are having another go. Democracy is in meltdown so let's have something else instead.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited September 2019
    Mexicanpete said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178038786665660422

    What was it Mandy Rice- Davies once said?
    "Doshvadanya Tovarich"? EDIT: I am getting mixed up - that would have been Christine Keeler. MR-D would have been "Cor blimey guv'nor"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    rottenborough said:

    Mail throws petrol (supplied by Cummings no doubt) onto the bonfire:


    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616

    The Mail is a disgrace. Jesus.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MarqueeMark said:

    So in the week Boris broke the law, lied to the Queen, is agreed by all meda outlets to be the most disgusting human being to threaten civiliation since Genghis Khan, his polling is down by.....one point?

    Well I am glad that you agree with all of those things but missed out quite a few others that we will save for another day
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1178048544843993090?s=20
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    rottenborough said:

    Mail throws petrol (supplied by Cummings no doubt) onto the bonfire:


    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616

    Will they also be investigating the hedge funds bankrolling Bozo and the Tories who want a no deal to make themselves a big profit !


  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    nichomar said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So in the week Boris broke the law, lied to the Queen, is agreed by all meda outlets to be the most disgusting human being to threaten civiliation since Genghis Khan, his polling is down by.....one point?

    Well I am glad that you agree with all of those things but missed out quite a few others that we will save for another day
    The day after Boris wins a majority you mean? :wink:
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019
    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    Mail throws petrol (supplied by Cummings no doubt) onto the bonfire:


    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616

    The Mail is a disgrace. Jesus.
    It’s more than a disgrace but I struggle to find words to condemn it as much as it deserves.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1178049761397678080
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    nico67 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Mail throws petrol (supplied by Cummings no doubt) onto the bonfire:


    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616

    Will they also be investigating the hedge funds bankrolling Bozo and the Tories who want a no deal to make themselves a big profit !


    By definition a hedge fund should make money on both sides of the outcome. Hence the name hedge.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1178049867278684161?s=21
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ozymandias said:

    nichomar said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So in the week Boris broke the law, lied to the Queen, is agreed by all meda outlets to be the most disgusting human being to threaten civiliation since Genghis Khan, his polling is down by.....one point?

    Well I am glad that you agree with all of those things but missed out quite a few others that we will save for another day
    The day after Boris wins a majority you mean? :wink:
    Who is this boris to which you refer do you mean Al who’s brother can’t serve in his government or who’s sister says he is beholden to the hedge fund managers who bank roll him?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    MarqueeMark said:

    So in the week Boris broke the law, lied to the Queen, is agreed by all meda outlets to be the most disgusting human being to threaten civiliation since Genghis Khan, his polling is down by.....one point?

    I’ve been watching the Ken Burns/Lyn Novick series of documentary films about the Virtnam war & one the things that’s very striking is just how long it took for Nixon’s polling to drop as the revelations about the truth of his conduct became unavoidable even for the true believers. Even at the very end he still held onto a core 25% or so of the population who believed he could do no wrong.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Oh the EU commissioner story again in the MOS! Zzzzzzzz

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    ralphmalph said:

    nico67 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Mail throws petrol (supplied by Cummings no doubt) onto the bonfire:


    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616

    Will they also be investigating the hedge funds bankrolling Bozo and the Tories who want a no deal to make themselves a big profit !


    By definition a hedge fund should make money on both sides of the outcome. Hence the name hedge.
    Or minimise the loss. Hence the name hedge.

    (Sorry. Pedantry gene. It's OK to hate me... :) )
This discussion has been closed.