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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap by 4 with Opinium

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    Noo said:

    Boris is a offspring of Charles I and John Profumo. Truly the worst PM of all time. Every day a new low.

    You may think that. The polls suggest you are out of tune with public opinion.
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    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Drutt said:

    Scott_P said:

    Drutt said:

    The Act surrenders in part the executive's treaty-making powers and agency.

    It does neither.

    Apart from that, great post...
    "Its provisions now require Her Majesty’s Government to seek an extension of the period provided under Article 50(3)". That's a direct quote from the schedule providing the text of the letter.

    Seriously, Scott, you can say it's purile to call it the surrender act, or you could say that the leverage it relinquishes is of modest or no import, and either is a credible position, but you can't claim it doesn't do exactly what it does do and exactly what its sponsors designed it to do.
    You're wrong. Surrender is when a body or person gives in.
    Parliament passed the bill, and parliament has taken the power into its own hands.

    Take back control and all that. Thought Brexiters would be the first to approve.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019
    Noo said:

    Boris is a offspring of Charles I and John Profumo. Truly the worst PM of all time. Every day a new low.

    I think the best answer to that is very similar to the one given to those of us in 2017 screaming that it was/ still is unbelievable Corbyn could become PM given stories on his past etc etc

    Those who know and care already won’t vote for him.
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    TGOHF2 said:

    Early suggestions on Twitter are that the ST has some info on Boris and his technical advisor.

    No front page yet.

    Boris shags blonde shockah !

    And she ends up with a lot of government money and travelling with him when he was on official business having overruled officials who told him it was not permissible.

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    TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?
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    Noo said:

    Boris is a offspring of Charles I and John Profumo. Truly the worst PM of all time. Every day a new low.

    Boris has not actually achieved anything yet, besides the mass defenestration of his own MPs (which most PBers anticipated occurring on the red team).

    For that reason, David Cameron retains his title as the worst prime minister since Lord North.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Don't forget that Tony Blair won a 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
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    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?
    Of course not, but the suggestion that he might have helped her get her hands on thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money puts a rather different slant on things.
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    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?

    Johnson’s inability to show his wife and family even an ounce of respect is, of course, a given. The story here is what else this woman may have got as a result of being in a sexual relationship with him.

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    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?
    Look, squirrel!. You do know Arcurigate is about corruption, not sex? Follow the money, not the spunk stains.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Boris is a offspring of Charles I and John Profumo. Truly the worst PM of all time. Every day a new low.

    You may think that. The polls suggest you are out of tune with public opinion.
    Forgive me for putting it this way, but the public sometimes takes a little time to catch up with the reality. Sadly, it can sometimes take years.

    Witness Iraq. It's quite hard these days to find people who were in favour in 2003. I remember arguing with friends at the time that it was all fishy and them telling me no no, we need to do this, it's all above board. Funnily, they all now "remember" being opposed at the time.

    I have no doubt at all that Boris /could/ win an election, and I have no doubt at all that he will be looked upon in a few years time as an idiot that happened to this country, unbidden.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Boris is a offspring of Charles I and John Profumo. Truly the worst PM of all time. Every day a new low.

    Boris has not actually achieved anything yet, besides the mass defenestration of his own MPs (which most PBers anticipated occurring on the red team).

    For that reason, David Cameron retains his title as the worst prime minister since Lord North.
    Cameron isn't even in the worst two PMs of this decade.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?
    Of course not, but the suggestion that he might have helped her get her hands on thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money puts a rather different slant on things.
    Yes. If the hints of this are true -- and I stress that I am not making such an accusation -- then he was effectively using public money to pay for sex. It doesn't get any more venal and corrupt than that.

    Anybody who reacts to that possibility with "worrr! What a man!" is clearly an idiot of Olympian proportions.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Does anyone know a useful tool that I can use to calculate how take home pay would be affected if I took either an extra weeks holiday a year or went down to 4 days?

    https://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/prorata.php

    Might help.
    cheers
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    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?

    Johnson’s inability to show his wife and family even an ounce of respect is, of course, a given. The story here is what else this woman may have got as a result of being in a sexual relationship with him.

    It would not do to have politicians with questionable morals would it. Shall we list a few?
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    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    Courageous given Redwood has an 18000 majority and the LDs were a distant third last time.
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    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?

    Johnson’s inability to show his wife and family even an ounce of respect is, of course, a given. The story here is what else this woman may have got as a result of being in a sexual relationship with him.

    It would not do to have politicians with questionable morals would it. Shall we list a few?
    It’s not about morals. It’s about corruption.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Noo said:


    I have no doubt at all that Boris /could/ win an election, and I have no doubt at all that he will be looked upon in a few years time as an idiot that happened to this country, unbidden.

    Boris will be considered an absolute genius and a Tory great if he succeeds in...

    1. Achieving Brexit (in whatever form)
    2. Which kills Europe as an issue in the Tory party
    3. It creates a new 'Europe problem' in Labour (rejoin or don't)
    4. Wins a GE
    5. Kills off Corbyn and his brand of politics

    All this is within his grasp over the next few months and you would need to be very one-eyed not to see the reality of it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Noo said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    Set a Tory to catch one.
    Not sure Lee and Umunna will have been in the same voting lobbies in recent years. There's going to be some tensions there......
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,900
    TGOHF2 said:
    Daily Telegraph. RIP.

    It's never been one of the best but it used to be readable.
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    houndtang said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    Courageous given Redwood has an 18000 majority and the LDs were a distant third last time.
    Lib Dems probably won't win but could come very close.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Streeter said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?

    Johnson’s inability to show his wife and family even an ounce of respect is, of course, a given. The story here is what else this woman may have got as a result of being in a sexual relationship with him.

    It would not do to have politicians with questionable morals would it. Shall we list a few?
    It’s not about morals. It’s about corruption.
    Alleged corruption. And if subsequently proven beyond reasonable doubt in Court after an official investigation , punishable by law.

    Until that time it’s tittle tattle which may, ironically,merely reinforce the public feeling that Johnson’s enemies are playing the man and not the ball.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106



    Not sure Lee and Umunna will have been in the same voting lobbies in recent years. There's going to be some tensions there......

    Not for long.

    No way will Lee win that seat.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,826
    houndtang said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    Courageous given Redwood has an 18000 majority and the LDs were a distant third last time.
    Wokingham did vote Remain though. Flavible has it as an LD gain.
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    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Phil said:

    So in the week Boris broke the law, lied to the Queen, is agreed by all meda outlets to be the most disgusting human being to threaten civiliation since Genghis Khan, his polling is down by.....one point?

    I’ve been watching the Ken Burns/Lyn Novick series of documentary films about the Virtnam war & one the things that’s very striking is just how long it took for Nixon’s polling to drop as the revelations about the truth of his conduct became unavoidable even for the true believers. Even at the very end he still held onto a core 25% or so of the population who believed he could do no wrong.
    Well, according to the figures at BritainElects, the most recent Tory ratings for the 8 pollsters listed there are:
    27, 29, 30, 31, 31, 33, 36, 38

    On the whole, the Tories aren't currently that far above the core 25% support you quote for Nixon.
    I think in the context of 'modern' politics the most remarkable thing is the relatively low 25% mark.

    Trump has now ca. 40% 'diehard' supporters, Tories+BXP=45% as communicating vessels, I believe that is something - worrying - to ponder.
    I don't think you can quite compare support for an abstract concept like Brexit, or even No Deal Brexit - however stupid - with support for a particular politician or party.

    The fact is that on either the mean or median of those poll ratings we're talking about 31-32% support for the Tories, which in historical terms is very low and would normally result in a landslide defeat.
    I believe momentarily you are correct but there is still a high level of fluidity and I fear that over the longer term British politics may be heading in a dangerous direction.
    I think the BXP vote share contains ca. 5% traditional/instinctive Labour voters and I think it's quite possible, if not even likely, that the reassimilation of the rest - whenever that will happen - will push the Conservatives to an ever more extreme stance on virtually anything.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,826
    edited September 2019
    Noo said:

    Boris is a offspring of Charles I and John Profumo. Truly the worst PM of all time. Every day a new low.

    I think that a little unfair on Profumo. After being exposed for lying to Parliament, didn't Profumo resign an spend the rest of his life doing charity work in obscurity as penance?
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    ST: Shagged the tech adviser and groped a journo

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1178071820072828934
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Foxy said:


    I think that a little unfair on Profumo. After being exposed for lying to Parliament, didn't Profumo resign an spend the rest of his life doing charity work in obscurity as penance?

    He did and his reputation was very much rehabilitated my the time of his death.
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    Streeter said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Sounds like the Sunday Times have been investigating the relationship between Johnson and the American tech woman.

    Wait - you don’t say Boris was getting his leg over some years ago ?

    Did anyone think they weren’t shagging ?

    Johnson’s inability to show his wife and family even an ounce of respect is, of course, a given. The story here is what else this woman may have got as a result of being in a sexual relationship with him.

    It would not do to have politicians with questionable morals would it. Shall we list a few?
    It’s not about morals. It’s about corruption.
    Alleged corruption. And if subsequently proven beyond reasonable doubt in Court after an official investigation , punishable by law.

    Until that time it’s tittle tattle which may, ironically,merely reinforce the public feeling that Johnson’s enemies are playing the man and not the ball.
    Boris knows what happened so might resign, though I doubt it. Or Conservative MPs might grow a pair and dismiss him, but that is doubtful too, seeing how long they tolerated Theresa May. It should not have to wait till the handcuffs are on, let alone the outcome of a trial.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    I have no doubt at all that Boris /could/ win an election, and I have no doubt at all that he will be looked upon in a few years time as an idiot that happened to this country, unbidden.

    Boris will be considered an absolute genius and a Tory great if he succeeds in...

    1. Achieving Brexit (in whatever form)
    2. Which kills Europe as an issue in the Tory party
    3. It creates a new 'Europe problem' in Labour (rejoin or don't)
    4. Wins a GE
    5. Kills off Corbyn and his brand of politics

    All this is within his grasp over the next few months and you would need to be very one-eyed not to see the reality of it.
    1. is the Iraq of our time. Brexit will be bad, and if anyone "achieves" it their name will be mud forever, like Blair but worse.
    2. Haha, lay off the absinthe
    3. Yeah, Europe is going to be a big issue for a long time now. Any "big tent" parties will suffer from it.
    4. Could happen, suspect it won't though.
    5. Corbyn's doing a grand job of that. All Boris needs to do is keep his nose clean and don't do anything to detract attention from... oh
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    AndyJS said:

    The broad brush of the body of polling remains clear. There are more than enough Lab/LD/Grn/Nat voters to block a Boris majority as in 2017. The questions are ( a ) Is that their priority ? ( b ) are they organised enough ?

    I think the only honest answers to those questions at the moment is we don't know.

    Don't forget that Tony Blair won a 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
    Yes, what you have to remember is the number of Labour incumbents seeking re-election. IIRC Labour won something like 410 seats in 2001. Retirements at that point tended to be safe seats rather than Labour marginals with Tories second. Having an incumbent MP is usually an advantage of several thousand votes. The Tories also voted for Iraq, which had the concequence of a swing to LD rather than Tory. The Tories under BJ have less than 300 MPs seeking re-election. I cannot see the Tories winning a maj. Of 66 and certainly not on 35%!
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    TGOHF2 said:
    Let’s add a new rule to the game. Those who spin that No Deal is just a bit of disruption between us and the sunlit uplands get to spend the rest of their lives in jail if proved wrong? 🤗
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336
    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    I have no doubt at all that Boris /could/ win an election, and I have no doubt at all that he will be looked upon in a few years time as an idiot that happened to this country, unbidden.

    Boris will be considered an absolute genius and a Tory great if he succeeds in...

    1. Achieving Brexit (in whatever form)
    2. Which kills Europe as an issue in the Tory party
    3. It creates a new 'Europe problem' in Labour (rejoin or don't)
    4. Wins a GE
    5. Kills off Corbyn and his brand of politics

    All this is within his grasp over the next few months and you would need to be very one-eyed not to see the reality of it.
    I suspect that all depends on what the Tory brand stands for at that point in time.

    If you discount Cameron, Osborne, May, Clarke, Heseltine, Major and Grieve to name but a handful, as Tories then yes you are absolutely right.
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    The Sunday Times story looks rather a damp squib.
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    Dear Boz. Are they your “friends and partners” or “the enemy”?

    If the former, this is bollocks. If the latter, stop calling them “friends and partners”.

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616?s=20
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    Set a Tory to catch one.
    Not sure Lee and Umunna will have been in the same voting lobbies in recent years. There's going to be some tensions there......
    I'm not in the least bit interested in Umunna. I'm talking about Lee and Count von Redwood.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,826
    edited September 2019
    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    I have no doubt at all that Boris /could/ win an election, and I have no doubt at all that he will be looked upon in a few years time as an idiot that happened to this country, unbidden.

    Boris will be considered an absolute genius and a Tory great if he succeeds in...

    1. Achieving Brexit (in whatever form)
    2. Which kills Europe as an issue in the Tory party
    3. It creates a new 'Europe problem' in Labour (rejoin or don't)
    4. Wins a GE
    5. Kills off Corbyn and his brand of politics

    All this is within his grasp over the next few months and you would need to be very one-eyed not to see the reality of it.
    Or it could all go tits up:

    1) Brexit kicked into long grass
    2) fresh round of infighting sees the remainder of One Nation group sitting as independents
    3) Labour wins election against split Tories and BXP.
    4) Corbyn as PM wipes out possibility of Old Etonians becoming PM ever again.
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    Just imagining the opposition parties finally manage to get their shit together enough to make Bercow PM only to discover his politics are exactly the same as they were back when he was in the Monday Club
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I believe momentarily you are correct but there is still a high level of fluidity and I fear that over the longer term British politics may be heading in a dangerous direction.
    I think the BXP vote share contains ca. 5% traditional/instinctive Labour voters and I think it's quite possible, if not even likely, that the reassimilation of the rest - whenever that will happen - will push the Conservatives to an ever more extreme stance on virtually anything.

    Remainers were warned repeatedly about the potential long term rise of populism if they looked to overturn the referendum result.

    If we'd have had a deal then Labour and the LD's could have campaigned honestly and in good faith at future GE's to rejoin.

    Instead they have behaved in an incredibly reckless and underhand way which has fired up anger and resentment in the public.

    Hopefully there will be a realisation that voting through a version of May's deal, if it comes back, will be a way of releasing the pressure cooker and putting the genie back in the bottle.

    Arguments can then be made at the GE about our longer term future.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019

    Just imagining the opposition parties finally manage to get their shit together enough to make Bercow PM only to discover his politics are exactly the same as they were back when he was in the Monday Club
    Now that would be funny. Be a wonderful appendix to the history books that’ll be read in a century from now.

    Bercow then refuses to sign the letter. The ultimate deep-cover double agent for Cummings.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Noo said:

    Drutt said:

    Scott_P said:

    Drutt said:

    The Act surrenders in part the executive's treaty-making powers and agency.

    It does neither.

    Apart from that, great post...
    "Its provisions now require Her Majesty’s Government to seek an extension of the period provided under Article 50(3)". That's a direct quote from the schedule providing the text of the letter.

    Seriously, Scott, you can say it's purile to call it the surrender act, or you could say that the leverage it relinquishes is of modest or no import, and either is a credible position, but you can't claim it doesn't do exactly what it does do and exactly what its sponsors designed it to do.
    You're wrong. Surrender is when a body or person gives in.
    Parliament passed the bill, and parliament has taken the power into its own hands.

    Take back control and all that. Thought Brexiters would be the first to approve.
    No, the act does not arrogate the treaty-making power to Parliament. Rather, it binds the hands of the exec, which is required in its dealing with foreign powers to submit to rules not to its own advantage.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    The optics of Chuka announcing that might annoy LibDems with more than 10 weeks in the party.
    Why? He seemed to be thoroughly at home with the Lib Dems in Bournemouth this month. And the tone of his speeches was absolutely right.
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    Just imagining the opposition parties finally manage to get their shit together enough to make Bercow PM only to discover his politics are exactly the same as they were back when he was in the Monday Club
    Now that would be funny. Be a wonderful appendix to the history books that’ll be read in a century from now.

    Bercow then refuses to sign the letter. The ultimate deep-cover double agent for Cummings.
    That would be a decade of deep, deep cover 😆
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    HYUFD said:

    Still a 12% Tory lead as the Tories begin their conference and the LDs now closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories

    Still a 30 point SNP lead over the Tories, and the LDs now closer to 2nd place Labour than the Tories are to the LDs.

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
    Still the SNP barely above 2017 levels and well below 2015 levels
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Just imagining the opposition parties finally manage to get their shit together enough to make Bercow PM only to discover his politics are exactly the same as they were back when he was in the Monday Club
    Now that would be funny. Be a wonderful appendix to the history books that’ll be read in a century from now.

    Bercow then refuses to sign the letter. The ultimate deep-cover double agent for Cummings.
    That would be a decade of deep, deep cover 😆
    Was all planned. Cummings is a time-traveller from the year 3023.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited September 2019
    TGOHF2 said:
    Boris now leads Corbyn as best PM with Labour Leave voters on that poll 42% to 23%, amongst all voters Boris leads Corbyn as best PM 43% to 24%
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Drutt said:

    Noo said:

    Drutt said:

    Scott_P said:

    Drutt said:

    The Act surrenders in part the executive's treaty-making powers and agency.

    It does neither.

    Apart from that, great post...
    "Its provisions now require Her Majesty’s Government to seek an extension of the period provided under Article 50(3)". That's a direct quote from the schedule providing the text of the letter.

    Seriously, Scott, you can say it's purile to call it the surrender act, or you could say that the leverage it relinquishes is of modest or no import, and either is a credible position, but you can't claim it doesn't do exactly what it does do and exactly what its sponsors designed it to do.
    You're wrong. Surrender is when a body or person gives in.
    Parliament passed the bill, and parliament has taken the power into its own hands.

    Take back control and all that. Thought Brexiters would be the first to approve.
    No, the act does not arrogate the treaty-making power to Parliament. Rather, it binds the hands of the exec, which is required in its dealing with foreign powers to submit to rules not to its own advantage.
    I don't WANT rules to be in favour of the executive. I want them to be in favour of parliament.
    Parliament is the legitimate sovereign body of the United Kingdom, and the one we elect. If there is conflict between parliament and the government, the government can fuck off.
    Any other view is a license for authoritarianism. We aren't a tinpot country where strongmen rule from palaces. We're a parliamentary democracy. If you don't like that, book a one way ticket to some banana republic; I don't care which one.
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    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    The Bercow story isn't entirely incredible. I did wonder why he was stepping down before the Brexit saga was over. The Opposition parties would all regard him as acceptable if Corbyn doesn't get a majority, and the indignation on the Tory side would be fun. Not sure it would be entirely beneficial for civil order, though.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2019
    SunnyJim said:


    I believe momentarily you are correct but there is still a high level of fluidity and I fear that over the longer term British politics may be heading in a dangerous direction.
    I think the BXP vote share contains ca. 5% traditional/instinctive Labour voters and I think it's quite possible, if not even likely, that the reassimilation of the rest - whenever that will happen - will push the Conservatives to an ever more extreme stance on virtually anything.

    Remainers were warned repeatedly about the potential long term rise of populism if they looked to overturn the referendum result.

    If we'd have had a deal then Labour and the LD's could have campaigned honestly and in good faith at future GE's to rejoin.

    Instead they have behaved in an incredibly reckless and underhand way which has fired up anger and resentment in the public.

    Hopefully there will be a realisation that voting through a version of May's deal, if it comes back, will be a way of releasing the pressure cooker and putting the genie back in the bottle.

    Arguments can then be made at the GE about our longer term future.
    You must be the last person this side of the 1930s who thinks that giving the far right what they want is the way to keep them down. Congratulations, you vestigial political anomaly, on making it to 2019. Wait til you catch up with the news from the last 80 or so years, you'll just love it.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Don't worry, there is absolutely no chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM!
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Even if all of this is true. All of it. Time and again he is shown to be preferable by the UK voters, if polls are to be believed, than his main opponent.

    Does this not tell you something? Does that not suggest Labour need to get rid? Get rid of Corbyn. And his coterie. It’s such a simple solution for them it’s frightening.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Disappointed that we've only had one Pole tonight.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still a 12% Tory lead as the Tories begin their conference and the LDs now closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories

    Still a 30 point SNP lead over the Tories, and the LDs now closer to 2nd place Labour than the Tories are to the LDs.

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
    Still the SNP barely above 2017 levels and well below 2015 levels
    So you're saying that the SNP have been doing better in the 2 years since the last election than the 2 years before that?
    Hmmm, it feels weird but I agree with you.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited September 2019

    The Bercow story isn't entirely incredible. I did wonder why he was stepping down before the Brexit saga was over. The Opposition parties would all regard him as acceptable if Corbyn doesn't get a majority, and the indignation on the Tory side would be fun. Not sure it would be entirely beneficial for civil order, though.

    :smiley: That would be the ultimate payback for the Tories! Hope it happens. I dont think riots would happen as at least Bercow would command a majority in the commons unlike BJ who cannot from our elected representatives.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Noo said:


    You must be the last person this side of the 1930s who thinks that giving the far right what they want is the way to keep them down. Congratulations, you vestigial political anomaly, on making it to 2019. Wait til you catch up with the news from the last 80 or so years, you'll just love it.

    Keep working on labelling the 17m+ leave voters far-right buddy.

    I don't know if you're involved in canvassing for Labour but if you are you've hit on a cracking attack line that should be used on every doorstep.

    And down the pub, definitely in the pub.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited September 2019

    Dear Boz. Are they your “friends and partners” or “the enemy”?

    If the former, this is bollocks. If the latter, stop calling them “friends and partners”.

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1178047071519215616?s=20

    This has Dacre's fingerprints all over it. He's not officially editor of the Sunday title, but probably has more bullying power over it than he does over Geordie Grieg, even from his upstairs "editor-in-chief" role. It's in a very similar vein to "enemies of the people" - no evidence of a leg to stand on informationally, but equally unashamed in putting those MPs in harm's way and raising the temperature. He's likely to be still exercising his particularly distinctive brand of malign influence from his demoted position.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    AndyJS said:

    Disappointed that we've only had one Pole tonight.

    You can't have a monopole. Physically impossible.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,853

    Just imagining the opposition parties finally manage to get their shit together enough to make Bercow PM only to discover his politics are exactly the same as they were back when he was in the Monday Club
    Now that would be funny. Be a wonderful appendix to the history books that’ll be read in a century from now.

    Bercow then refuses to sign the letter. The ultimate deep-cover double agent for Cummings.
    That would be a decade of deep, deep cover 😆
    Was all planned. Cummings is a time-traveller from the year 3023.
    Can I have a long odds quid on Jeremy Corbyn being the finest security services agent, for both 5 and 6 at different times, that post-war Britain has known.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    The Bercow story isn't entirely incredible. I did wonder why he was stepping down before the Brexit saga was over. The Opposition parties would all regard him as acceptable if Corbyn doesn't get a majority, and the indignation on the Tory side would be fun. Not sure it would be entirely beneficial for civil order, though.

    He's an incredibly brave man if he does.

    Not a chance i'd be volunteering for that job, regardless of how much I loved the EU.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I see the Sunday newspapers aren't exactly doing much to calm the national mood. Disappointing IMO.
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    The Sunday Times front page explains the Mail on Sunday one.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,826
    PClipp said:

    Foxy said:

    An interesting selection for LDs in Wokingham

    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1177979841804677120?s=19

    The optics of Chuka announcing that might annoy LibDems with more than 10 weeks in the party.
    Why? He seemed to be thoroughly at home with the Lib Dems in Bournemouth this month. And the tone of his speeches was absolutely right.
    If a party is expanding, it does so by taking people whose allegiance was formerly elsewhere, whether politicians or voters. As long as they abide by the rules of their new party and stand on its manifesto, then fine by me.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    AndyJS said:

    I see the Sunday newspapers aren't exactly doing much to calm the national mood. Disappointing IMO.

    I'm glad in a way.

    If the intensity keeps building like this in the run up to a deal being presented then you would have to be an absolute head banging loon not to vote it through.

    And I include the ERG in that.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited September 2019
    I think the idea that Remainers could make the Speaker PM to stop Brexit (and I'm sure this idea is floating around somewhere) shows that Remainers are basically finished.

    They've run out of ideas and are now thrashing around looking for the most bizarre, unlikely and implausible of scenario's to try and halt Brexit.

    Boris and Cummings have destroyed Remain. Probably.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The latest attempt by Bozo is to threaten to turn the Supreme Court into the American version of political appointees !

    The Trumpian takeover gathers pace !

    And Bozo thinks this will frighten the current judges into being more supportive of his attempts to trash the law .

    He really becomes more delusional by the day .
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Their number 64 hit “remaining dreams” might not go down too well :smiley:
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    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Even if all of this is true. All of it. Time and again he is shown to be preferable by the UK voters, if polls are to be believed, than his main opponent.

    Does this not tell you something? Does that not suggest Labour need to get rid? Get rid of Corbyn. And his coterie. It’s such a simple solution for them it’s frightening.

    I agree. Corbyn is what keeps Johnson afloat. But Labour members decided long ago that having Jeremy as their leader is far more important to them than defeating the Tories.

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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Even if all of this is true. All of it. Time and again he is shown to be preferable by the UK voters, if polls are to be believed, than his main opponent.

    Does this not tell you something? Does that not suggest Labour need to get rid? Get rid of Corbyn. And his coterie. It’s such a simple solution for them it’s frightening.

    Yes but getting rid of Corbyn is easier said than done.

    Johnson will go one of two ways, fortune may shine on him and through circumstances and chicanery he will survive as Prime Minister for a good many years.

    Alternatively he could be taken down by his own hubris in a heartbeat. A skeleton from his back story could well see him in disgrace, I am not sure whether the pole dancing Waitress is that story, although that does seems to be emitting a rather unpleasant sulphurous odour. Equally if he pursues his no deal and it mirrors project fear, he will no longer be a hero to the good people of Stoke-on-Trent.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    AndyJS said:

    I see the Sunday newspapers aren't exactly doing much to calm the national mood. Disappointing IMO.

    Newspapers are only interested in revenue from sales or internet advertising. I think the Brexit supporting media is deeply irresponsible and question why they keep adding fuel to the fire as the only people they assist are the UKs foes like Putin...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,826

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Don't worry, there is absolutely no chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM!
    It's not impossible, I think the odds on offer at BFx are about right. These are febrile times and Jezza is in his element campaigning.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    You must be the last person this side of the 1930s who thinks that giving the far right what they want is the way to keep them down. Congratulations, you vestigial political anomaly, on making it to 2019. Wait til you catch up with the news from the last 80 or so years, you'll just love it.

    Keep working on labelling the 17m+ leave voters far-right buddy.

    I don't know if you're involved in canvassing for Labour but if you are you've hit on a cracking attack line that should be used on every doorstep.

    And down the pub, definitely in the pub.
    Canvassing for Labour? Why would I do that when I don't even vote for them?
    You thick fuck.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Noo said:


    Canvassing for Labour? Why would I do that when I don't even vote for them?
    You thick fuck.

    Hahaha...rattled much?
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I see the Sunday newspapers aren't exactly doing much to calm the national mood. Disappointing IMO.

    I'm glad in a way.

    If the intensity keeps building like this in the run up to a deal being presented then you would have to be an absolute head banging loon not to vote it through.

    And I include the ERG in that.
    This is the real Project Fear. It's not about doom-laden predictions, but about literally making people so afraid they vote against their own consciences.

    Your authoritarianism is showing.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Even if all of this is true. All of it. Time and again he is shown to be preferable by the UK voters, if polls are to be believed, than his main opponent.

    Does this not tell you something? Does that not suggest Labour need to get rid? Get rid of Corbyn. And his coterie. It’s such a simple solution for them it’s frightening.

    Yes but getting rid of Corbyn is easier said than done.

    Johnson will go one of two ways, fortune may shine on him and through circumstances and chicanery he will survive as Prime Minister for a good many years.

    Alternatively he could be taken down by his own hubris in a heartbeat. A skeleton from his back story could well see him in disgrace, I am not sure whether the pole dancing Waitress is that story, although that does seems to be emitting a rather unpleasant sulphurous odour. Equally if he pursues his no deal and it mirrors project fear, he will no longer be a hero to the good people of Stoke-on-Trent.
    Very considered post. I do agree.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    I think the idea that Remainers could make the Speaker PM to stop Brexit (and I'm sure this idea is floating around somewhere) shows that Remainers are basically finished.

    They've run out of ideas and are now thrashing around looking for the most bizarre, unlikely and implausible of scenario's to try and halt Brexit.

    Boris and Cummings have destroyed Remain. Probably.
    I mean they can’t stop winning ! Remind us which votes Bozo has won . The story is hilarious . Do you really believe this rubbish from the Sunday Mail .
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Noo said:


    This is the real Project Fear. It's not about doom-laden predictions, but about literally making people so afraid they vote against their own consciences.

    Your authoritarianism is showing.



    You are getting increasingly hysterical so i'd politely suggest you take off the tin foil hat for the night and turn in.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    Canvassing for Labour? Why would I do that when I don't even vote for them?
    You thick fuck.

    Hahaha...rattled much?
    Yup. I'm 100% rattled by the rise of authoritarianism in this country. You rattle me. You scare the shit out of me. I have no problem admitting that. Anyone who has a passing familiarity with the methods and history of authoritarianism is rightly frightened right now.
    But understand this. My fear of the likes of you will not be manifest in capitulation. I will never submit to your stinking, toxic vision of what this country should be. ¡No pasarán!
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Johnson will go one of two ways, fortune may shine on him and through circumstances and chicanery he will survive as Prime Minister for a good many years.

    Alternatively he could be taken down by his own hubris in a heartbeat. A skeleton from his back story could well see him in disgrace, I am not sure whether the pole dancing Waitress is that story, although that does seems to be emitting a rather unpleasant sulphurous odour. Equally if he pursues his no deal and it mirrors project fear, he will no longer be a hero to the good people of Stoke-on-Trent.

    Johnson only needs to get Brexit over the line and defeat Corbyn in a GE.

    After that we will hopefully see a return of a Blairite leader to the Labour party and we can all get back to relaxed centrism.

    All except those who will be still be impotently frothing at the mouth about the EU long after the vast majority have moved on.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Noo said:


    Yup. I'm 100% rattled by the rise of authoritarianism in this country. You rattle me. You scare the shit out of me. I have no problem admitting that. Anyone who has a passing familiarity with the methods and history of authoritarianism is rightly frightened right now.
    But understand this. My fear of the likes of you will not be manifest in capitulation. I will never submit to your stinking, toxic vision of what this country should be. ¡No pasarán!

    Go to bed or you will see my jackboot up your backside!
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited September 2019
    It has been suggested many times that Cummings wants to terrify everyone into voting for a deal.

    The problem with this, if it is his strategy, would seem to arise out of the fact that he's very likely to have alienated and infiuriated as many MP's as he's terrified, by now.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    SunnyJim said:


    Johnson will go one of two ways, fortune may shine on him and through circumstances and chicanery he will survive as Prime Minister for a good many years.

    Alternatively he could be taken down by his own hubris in a heartbeat. A skeleton from his back story could well see him in disgrace, I am not sure whether the pole dancing Waitress is that story, although that does seems to be emitting a rather unpleasant sulphurous odour. Equally if he pursues his no deal and it mirrors project fear, he will no longer be a hero to the good people of Stoke-on-Trent.

    Johnson only needs to get Brexit over the line and defeat Corbyn in a GE.

    After that we will hopefully see a return of a Blairite leader to the Labour party and we can all get back to relaxed centrism.

    All except those who will be still be impotently frothing at the mouth about the EU long after the vast majority have moved on.
    The LDs are now more Blairite than Corbyn Labour
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336
    edited September 2019
    SunnyJim said:


    Johnson will go one of two ways, fortune may shine on him and through circumstances and chicanery he will survive as Prime Minister for a good many years.

    Alternatively he could be taken down by his own hubris in a heartbeat. A skeleton from his back story could well see him in disgrace, I am not sure whether the pole dancing Waitress is that story, although that does seems to be emitting a rather unpleasant sulphurous odour. Equally if he pursues his no deal and it mirrors project fear, he will no longer be a hero to the good people of Stoke-on-Trent.

    Johnson only needs to get Brexit over the line and defeat Corbyn in a GE.

    After that we will hopefully see a return of a Blairite leader to the Labour party and we can all get back to relaxed centrism.

    All except those who will be still be impotently frothing at the mouth about the EU long after the vast majority have moved on.
    I can see you are already riding those unicorns on the sunlit uplands of Brexit. Reality might prove to be less idyllic.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Even if all of this is true. All of it. Time and again he is shown to be preferable by the UK voters, if polls are to be believed, than his main opponent.

    Does this not tell you something? Does that not suggest Labour need to get rid? Get rid of Corbyn. And his coterie. It’s such a simple solution for them it’s frightening.

    New posters are always welcome, but I'm not sure you need harangue Southam Observer for his excessive Corbyn enthusiasm... :)
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I can see you are already riding those unicorns on the sunlit uplands of Brexit. Reality might prove to be less idyllic.

    I'm not sure I get the point you're driving at?

    Do you mean there is no chance of Labour going back to Blairite centrism?

    Or that Brexit won't be done?

    Or that Boris can't beat Corbyn in a GE?

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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019
    Noo said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    Canvassing for Labour? Why would I do that when I don't even vote for them?
    You thick fuck.

    Hahaha...rattled much?
    Yup. I'm 100% rattled by the rise of authoritarianism in this country. You rattle me. You scare the shit out of me. I have no problem admitting that. Anyone who has a passing familiarity with the methods and history of authoritarianism is rightly frightened right now.
    But understand this. My fear of the likes of you will not be manifest in capitulation. I will never submit to your stinking, toxic vision of what this country should be. ¡No pasarán!
    I never thought I would ever think this but I’m slowly, very slowly coming round to the idea of PR.

    We need to protect against an authoritarian executive. Absolutely. We also need to protect against an elective dictatorship either in itself or derived from parliament.

    The possibility of gaining an absolute majority on as little as 35% of the popular vote is absurd.

    Likewise a parliament running from putting itself to a general election as the country is ungovernable is also absurd.

    I need more nudging away from FPTP but I’m getting there.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    A man who so routinely and so casually betrayed his wife, and who has demonstrably lied time and again to employers, friends, family, colleagues and voters, is a man who cannot be trusted. He is interested solely in himself.

    Even if all of this is true. All of it. Time and again he is shown to be preferable by the UK voters, if polls are to be believed, than his main opponent.

    Does this not tell you something? Does that not suggest Labour need to get rid? Get rid of Corbyn. And his coterie. It’s such a simple solution for them it’s frightening.

    New posters are always welcome, but I'm not sure you need harangue Southam Observer for his excessive Corbyn enthusiasm... :)
    I’m learning 😊
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited September 2019
    David Miliband's pay rises to $911,976 a year, almost 5 times what Boris makes as PM and almost 6 times what Corbyn makes as Leader of the Opposition, for running the International Rescue charity in Manhattan

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7516155/Million-dollar-Miliband-Former-Labour-Ministers-pay-soars-911-000-refugee-charity.html
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    GIN1138 said:

    I think the idea that Remainers could make the Speaker PM to stop Brexit (and I'm sure this idea is floating around somewhere) shows that Remainers are basically finished.

    They've run out of ideas and are now thrashing around looking for the most bizarre, unlikely and implausible of scenario's to try and halt Brexit.

    Boris and Cummings have destroyed Remain. Probably.
    There was me, that is Alexander Boris de Pfeffel, and my three droogs, that is Priti, Govey, and Dom, and we sat in the Kensington Milkbar trying to make up our rassoodocks what to do with the evening. The Kensington Milkbar sold milk-plus, milk plus Corn Syrup or GM Soya or Chlorinated Chicken, which is what we were drinking. This would sharpen you up and make you ready for a bit of the old No-Deal Brexit!
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Putting this bizarre story aside . Bozo has certainly united the opposition and is despised, the problem for him is he’s also now despised by a number of backbench Tories .

    It’s all out war now with the public now the collateral damage as I fear things are going to become even more polarized and toxic .

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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    GIN1138 said:

    I think the idea that Remainers could make the Speaker PM to stop Brexit (and I'm sure this idea is floating around somewhere) shows that Remainers are basically finished.

    They've run out of ideas and are now thrashing around looking for the most bizarre, unlikely and implausible of scenario's to try and halt Brexit.

    Boris and Cummings have destroyed Remain. Probably.
    There was me, that is Alexander Boris de Pfeffel, and my three droogs, that is Priti, Govey, and Dom, and we sat in the Kensington Milkbar trying to make up our rassoodocks what to do with the evening. The Kensington Milkbar sold milk-plus, milk plus Corn Syrup or GM Soya or Chlorinated Chicken, which is what we were drinking. This would sharpen you up and make you ready for a bit of the old No-Deal Brexit!
    Clockwork Orange...?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336
    HYUFD said:

    David Miliband's pay rises to $911,976 a year, 5 times what Boris makes as PM, for running the International Rescue charity in Manhattan

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7516155/Million-dollar-Miliband-Former-Labour-Ministers-pay-soars-911-000-refugee-charity.html

    If we add up all of Boris' additional employment throughout the first half of 2019 I am sure he will make Milliband look church-mouse poor!

    And please Boris apologists, I don't want to see the figures proving that Boris and Carrie are getting by on Univeral Credit.
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    Noo said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:


    Canvassing for Labour? Why would I do that when I don't even vote for them?
    You thick fuck.

    Hahaha...rattled much?
    Yup. I'm 100% rattled by the rise of authoritarianism in this country. You rattle me. You scare the shit out of me. I have no problem admitting that. Anyone who has a passing familiarity with the methods and history of authoritarianism is rightly frightened right now.
    But understand this. My fear of the likes of you will not be manifest in capitulation. I will never submit to your stinking, toxic vision of what this country should be. ¡No pasarán!
    I never thought I would ever think this but I’m slowly, very slowly coming round to the idea of PR.

    We need to protect against an authoritarian executive. Absolutely. We also need to protect against an elective dictatorship either in itself or derived from parliament.

    The possibility of gaining an absolute majority on as little as 35% of the popular vote is absurd.

    Likewise a parliament running from putting itself to a general election as the country is ungovernable is also absurd.

    I need more nudging away from FPTP but I’m getting there.
    PR could make things even worse. See Israel this week if you think PR will prevent authoritarian prime ministers with minority votes.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My hunch is the Tories won't win a majority at the next election because of bad results in Remain areas combined with not winning enough Labour Leave constituencies although they will win some of them.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    AndyJS said:

    My hunch is the Tories won't win a majority at the next election because of bad results in Remain areas combined with not winning enough Labour Leave constituencies although they will win some of them.

    There are more marginal Labour Leave seats than marginal Tory Remain seats
This discussion has been closed.