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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To add to BoJo’s woes it’s Corbyn not the PM who’ll decide when there’ll be an election
The Fixed-term Employment Act was the most lasting constitutional change to come out of the 2010 to 2015 Conservative Liberal Democrat coalition.
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It is one of those issues where because the facts are largely obscure you can piece together a few logical points on either side, then build up to a conclusion that is quite clear and concise and logical. However if you'd chosen a few other points, a bit of a different emphasis elsewhere, then you could have come to just as clear, just as concise, just as logical a conclusion but the other way.
In a way its a bit like the famous push polling joke in Yes, Minister. What came forth before, all entirely logical, is what shapes the conclusion at the end. By the time you reach the conclusion there is only one logical conclusion - but had you put forth different points [which they could have] they could reach a different conclusion at the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
The High Court and the Supreme Court both did their job. Neither should be criticised.
Nor does this make us like America. If a majority in the Commons ever don't like a Supreme Court decision they can change the law. Problem solved.
If oppositions are able to force a GE relying on a simple majority of votes, via a VONC with a 14 day cooling off period, why is it that sitting Governments are required to operate to a much higher bar - a 2/3rds majority of all votes with abstentions counting as votes against?
Governments should be able to bring a motion to hold a GE also requiring only a simple majority, which if passed should give rise to a 14 day period during which the government must step down if any succeeding government can command a vote of confidence but which otherwise leads to a GE being called after 14 days. Simple and balanced.
Yes, I suppose it's a bit like the VAR system. Anything that gets that far is by definition a close call and it depends how you see it. As a former referee I can sympathise with this. When you are on the pitch, you do quite literally perceive things differently, sometimes for the better, sometimes not.
I agree with you about the America comparison. Furthermore, the judgement made clear that the circumstances it was considering were exceptional so it is unlikely we will see a plethora of similar challenges, as Byronic and some others seem to imagine.
Corbyn made PM purely for long enough to sign Labour's death warrant by submitting the extension request.
GE follows.
All to Cummings timetable.
Byronic has become very tedious all of a sudden.
PMs without majorities should be able to call a General Election if there's no alternative PM in waiting who can command a majority.
That was surely the logic behind the 14 day window, but the opposition refusing to trigger the window is what is causing this constitutional horlicks. The government should be able to trigger the 14 day window too - then the opposition would [quite reasonably] have 14 days to demonstrate it has its own majority, or we go to the polls.
So Ireland is one possibility, I like Canada, have friends and family there, and Australia too, another a friend keeps on offering me a job with NAB.
No sign of that in the polls.
They are now fair game and I don't see how we won't end up with a nomination system for the SC in the future.
As your fellow leaver Sandpit pointed out a lot of foreign companies like to have their contracts governed under English & Welsh law because they know our judiciary is fair and impartial and doesn't bow to government and media pressure.
I presume you are predicting the Brexit end-state, and not the state of play on Hallowe'en 2019. If so, there's a problem. What is the end-state? Will we ever get there?
Imagine, say, that Revoke somehow won out. And we never left. Would that be the end state? Clearly not, because then there would be pressure for the Tories to put leave-without-a-referendum in their next manifesto, and at some point they would win, and out we go. And on we go.
Brexit is likely to last the rest of our lives, and beyond. It will become part of the furniture. It will never go away. I know this is cheering.
Anyway, I have to go do my Blue Steel, so here's my prediction, for the Brexit state of play by the end of December 2021.
No Deal: 10%
Deal: 30%
Remain (probably after a plebiscite): 40%
Some kind of limbo (e.g. endless extensions): 15%
Black swan (an intervening war rendering Brexit irrelevant?): 5%
Ta-ra.
You can almost guarantee they'll be on opposite sides of any ruling that strays into the political realm too.
The government should simply be able to table a motion that there should be a general election and then that will occur automatically after 14 days unless a majority of the Commons gives confidence to a PM who says there should not be an election.
If Corbyn can command a majority he should do so from Downing Street.
Not ready for that at this hour...
Member of world class elite decides he is world class.
We’d need a written constitution to have politically appointed judges, with strong safeguards against amendments by simple majority. Without one the line-up of judges would change with every government.
The presenter pressed him on the point of what if there is an election after 31 October, that surely Boris has done all he can to try and prevent an extension and interestingly Farage agreed with that and said that what matters is a "clean break Brexit".
I don't think a delay will cause a collapse in Tory votes that Remainers are waiting for. It will be clear who is responsible for the delay.
Remainers have put the judiciary in an impossible position but then, as Bercow has shown, nothing is sacred in the ideological fight to keep the EU.
But as someone mentioned upthread, our courts *are* used by folks from around the world. That is unique.
So actually, there are some grounds for calling our most senior judges “world class”.
I assume though - perhaps too much - that by the time we finally reach an “end state”, whether Brexit or Remain, we will be glad to turn the page and move on to other divisive shit like non-binary gender identification.
I don't get the impression of anger with the judges, and neither does there seem to be enthusiasm for another GE.
If our judiciary WERE to ever be politicised, biased whatever, how would you identify that? The side they were on would obviously claim they were not biased, whereas the aggrieved party would claim they are.
Are we to go on trust and trust alone? Are the judiciary EVER above criticism? Are we to take their word as gospel without EVER disagreeing? And I don't mean until they do something you personally don't like.....
Whether you agree with it or not it’s happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofUZNynYXzM
The idea was shit at the the time, was generally thought to be shit, was denounced as “executive fiat” by the Speaker, and caused news headlines around the world about the suspension of democracy.
That Cox thought it legal and that we should therefore cut Boris some slack is risible.
But Shipman has become demented by his Leavey-ness.
We'll just have to hope that the prime minister can be restrained for long enough that sanity returns to the political sphere.
There's Lord Kitchin, who was recruited from the Enlarged Board of Appeal of the European Patent Office.
Or Lady Arden, ad hoc UK judge of the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
Or Lord Lloyd Jones, "a specialist in EU law"
Or Lord Reed, another ad hoc UK judge of the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg
Or Lord Kerr, who actually drafted the EU's Article 50, and deliberately made it punitive, so "it would never be used"
Oh look, here's Lord Kerr, openly calling for a delay to Brexit and a second referendum.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/06/drafted-article-50-brexit-referendum-eu-state
Yes, we have the best judiciary in the world. Oh yes. Absolutely impartial. Superb people, all of them. And they write so well!
Regardless, we are where we are, and if remainers are willing to scorch the earth in their desire to stay in the EU then there can be no surprise that the process becomes a fight to the death.
It is sad really, and avoidable if the remainers in parliament had not hidden behind a handful of extremists to justify not voting for May's deal.
If we could wind back the clock I suspect MV1 would sail through.
Has this guy taken leave of his senses?
Seemingly he is known to mutter something about them being 'advisory' as he runs red lights.
This has got to be a wind up?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/23/this-could-have-been-the-moment-that-cameron-and-his-mother-ensured-corbyn-would-one-day-become-pm/
Say a Saudi company and an Omani company wish to collaborate on a project in the UAE, no-one wants the jurisdiction to be in a place where the other side might have a better chance of winning. A lot of companies also have some state ownership which complicates things further. It makes sense for them all to agree to, in the event of dispute, find a genuinely impartial court.
There’s even a financial free zone in Dubai (DIFC) which operates entirely under English law and is staffed by English judges. Something like 90% of the overseas investment in the entire GCC region goes through DIFC and their English courts.
Brenda Hale is a great woman, risen to the top of the legal profession from a state school in Yorkshire. Wears her brilliance lightly too, I saw her speaking at a college event and she came across as very down to earth. Her judgement yesterday is a model of plain English common sense. The attacks on her from all these men-children, throwing their toys out of their perambulator because for once they didn't get what they wanted, is a sight to behold. Nothing angers them quite as much as a woman saying No.
The Lord Kerr on the Supreme Court is this one
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Kerr,_Baron_Kerr_of_Tonaghmore
This is the Lord Kerr who wrote article 50
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerr,_Baron_Kerr_of_Kinlochard
Deliver Brexit by 31/10 - Article 50 extended - FAILED.
Unite the Conservative Party (and the country) - Two former Chancellors with the whip withdrawn and 21 MPs in total kicked out - FAILED.
Defeat Jeremy Corbyn and keep him out of Number 10 - Resign to make way for Corbyn to enter Number 10 - FAILED.
A complete DUD, making Johnson a serial loser as well as a serial liar.
Would Conservative MPs have backed Johnson if that had been the plan presented to them in June? I think not.
The NHS is great for two things.
i) The cost for equivalent treatments is very good value. This is a direct result of central funding and pricing.
ii) The last thing you want to have to worry about when you are ill is sorting out the finances. With the NHS all you need to do is to have a UK address. There are no questions about how you are going to pay. There is no need to pay upfront and claim the mony back from the insurer*, and there is no need to pass the bill onto the insurer*, and there is no need to hope that the insurer agrees to pay.
*insurer could be public or private.
One other benefit with the NHS system is that almost all top consultant jobs are in the NHS, so anyone who wants to do research and push medicine/surgery forwards, needs to work at least 50% in the NHS.
And we all know that if Corbyn ends up being the one requesting the A50 extension prior to the GE Labour will be annihilated at the ballot box.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerr,_Baron_Kerr_of_Kinlochard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Kerr,_Baron_Kerr_of_Tonaghmore
Please withdraw the nonsense you have written above.
I think you should never post on Brexit or the law ever again.
The Supreme Court have politicised themselves and political scrutiny is coming their way.
Ah, it was a different Lord Baron who has done his bit to carry on the good work of the other Lord Baron who tried to make it impossible to leave the EU.
By my reckoning they both should have been called Wayne.
Silencing dissenting voices on Brexit since 2016.
Meanwhile... politics.