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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this YouGov polling is correct then tactical voting looks set to play a big part in an early general election
As a general rule I really don’t like surveys on things like tactical voting because we are asking a pollster to do something that’s highly complicated and we should retain our sectptism.
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https://www.faz.net/aktuell/rhein-main/wirtschaft/thomas-cook-insolvenz-hessen-bietet-condor-finanzielle-hilfe-an-16398769.html
https://twitter.com/joshuarozenberg/status/1176107445162299397?s=21
Imagine, for a moment, what might happen if the Lib Dems looked like a more credible opposition *nationally*. It's far from unreasonable to think that the Labour share might slump to 10% or so.
The majority of the repatriation cost will be bourne by ATOL and insurers, not government.
The CEO of Condor was quoted this morning as saying he had enough in the bank for a few days more, and was asking the German government for €200m bailout.
I do wonder if, for once, it looks like the left may come up with some grassroots tactical agreement, whilst BXP and Cons take chunks out of each other, especially if any GE is after Oct 31 and we've not left.
I’m pressing the non existent ‘like’ button. Possibly my favourite ever comment in a PB thread header
The first verse was abandoned just after the end of the second world war. If you sing those words in Germany today, people will think you are a Neo-nazi.
But the tune is good, and written by Haydn an Austrian!
How much of the Tory vote might be similarly an anti-Labour vote?
I'd be unsurprised if tactical voting is significant. Plus it gives non-mental Labour types a way of saying they're still *really* Labour but this was just a one-off vote for the Lib Dems because of the EU.
Management were well worth their huge salaries then, bet the bonuses were still large. I retire battered and bruised but still feeling sorry for all the poor sods who lost their jobs.
The fact that they didn’t even call administrators in shows that there isn’t any part of it which could be a viable business. What did Thomas Cook offer that couldn’t be got from other better travel companies? What - apart from their name - was their USP?
The open question is whether the Lib Dems can persuade people that they are better placed than Labour to win in given seats.
What is also means is that the Left do need the Tories and Brexit to tear each other apart at the next election..
That sounds like good news for Labour, although they probably need the overall number to get higher.
I've backed her back to somewhere near field green anyway.
* It's all relative
How has her derangement manifested itself?
What I want to know is, why did lenders keep on lending to them for so long?
Lady Hale to give the dissenting judgment for the minority.
Maybe....
The figures are there for you to see. It's not my fault if you deliberately ignore them.
The will be asked the irrelevant question "How would you vote in a Con/LD constiuency - asked only to those who will vote Lab/Green". It's irrelevant because they are not in a Con/LD constituency.
For the last few months they’ve been looking at a debt/equity swap, and an injection of cash from new investors, but those talks broke down a week or two ago.
Looking at the numbers, it’s no surprise at all that the banks eventually pulled the plug, any more cash put in would have just been throwing good money after bad. They needed £200m cash simply to make it to the end of this month, to make payroll and bills from suppliers.
Apparently all their aircraft in Manchester have been repossessed by the airport authority over unpaid bills. The administrators will have to sort these out before they can dispose of the planes - most of which are under leases anyway, there’s very few assets in the company.
Well I just ask you, conference: How can you lead a free world when you are locking toddlers in cages? How can you lead a free world when you’re trying to take away the freedom of women to control their own bodies? And how can you lead a free world when you are actively supporting the suppression and annexation of Palestine?
Donald Trump is not the leader of the free world. He is the role model, the guiding light, for all those ‘strongman’ politicians around the world who are trying to tear freedom apart.
And no-one has taken more inspiration from him than the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman.
It doesn't get better.
These "efficiency savings" massively annoy their customers, but they do allow them to, er, piss those savings up a wall backing the Thomas Cook management.
I once had dealings with a firm where the CEO's bonus was turnover related. I thought it was a one-off.
People of course would like to be able to draw conclusions , however of the 4 not appearing I’m pretty sure two of those will be on the opposing side . Lord Sales will likely find against the government and Lord Carnwath for them .
https://www.pinebridge.com/insights/investing/2019/09/clo-beyond-the-complexity
Even bankers have difficulty understanding the sunk costs fallacy.
And crystallised losses never look good on the books.
There's even one by the tills in my local Supermarket, though I've only ever seen Thomas Cook staff and not one single shopper in it!
Equally difficult to see how they could justify paying themselves the sorts of salaries they were paying themselves.
Set up a rule that if you have 1m plus banking customers you need to integrate your basic banking services with the local post office if you dont have a branch within 5 miles. So customers can access RBS, Barclays, Santander etc from a local post office (that in turn is more likely to be economically viable) rather than travelling 28 miles. Why are none of the parties even thinking about new solutions beyond taxing, restricting and banning?
A lot of people don't realise just how much can be done in the Post Office.
What is being talked about is chalk and cheese.
Goodwill valued at £2.585 billion net
(Seperately) Brand names valued at £246 million net
Net Assets £291 million
So knocking off (Impaired) goodwill and "brand names" gives us net negative equity of -£2.54 Bn.
I guess a couple of hundred million would have kept the ship floating along for another month or so but they'd soon be knocking again.
https://labour.org.uk/press/emily-thornberry-speaking-labour-party-conference/