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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A NO in the Scottish #IndyRef is not a certainty and bettin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A NO in the Scottish #IndyRef is not a certainty and betting at 1-7 is crazy
Over the past week there have been a number of reports from the bookies about punters place four and five figure bets on NO in the IndyRef at prices as tight as 1/7.
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The more Westminster politicians and London journalists tell the Scots what is "good for them" the greater chance Scots will vote Yes.
Do you mean in term of voting habits only, or more generally?
But I do love the way Scottish Labour have burnt the lifeboats for their Westminster compatriots by selecting for 2015 already......
Clearly a lot of 'emotional' betting going on......
Falkirk
Stevie
Grangemouth
QT
Ed
Yvette
Other than when in the company of fellow Scottish political anoraks of any persuasion, no-one mentions the Indy Ref in conversation. Most people will probably start thinking about it round about 17th September 2014. That is Eck's secret weapon. Disinterest.
George Eaton@georgeeaton35m
Miliband on the Balls "nightmare" email on Daybreak: "It’s fair to say that people send silly emails in offices and this was one of them."
At the next PMQs, someone should hand Ed M a nice Flake 99 to pass over to Ed B - that will solve the problem...
John Curtice:
So those who hope that independence would pave the way for Scotland to become a markedly more social democratic country that in addition would wish to be in the European fast lane should perhaps not set their expectations too high. At present at least, what Scotland wants looks too similar to what England wants for us to assume that is what would happen.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/10/two-different-countries-scottish-and-english-attitudes-to-equality-and-europe/
Gerry Hassan:
The truth is a little more nuanced and subtle. Scotland is a distinctive country and political culture on many criteria. We don’t vote Tory in any numbers, have a different attitude to the public sector and abhor the marketisation and privatisation of successive Westminster administrations.
Yet there are also commonalities across the UK which cannot be completely ignored – of shared values, institutions and history. Most of these might be weakened in recent times, but they still exist and matter, witness the debate over ‘the social union’.
http://www.gerryhassan.com/blog/scotland-is-different-and-not-that-different-but-what-does-it-mean/
twitter.com/TimGattITV/status/402339131885236224/photo/1
F1: not the greatest race in history. Not profitable either. But there are reasons to be cheerful. The next season should be shaken up a lot, and the very next race is one of my favourites:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/america-post-race-analysis.html
For one thing, what is a typical Scot? A kilt-wearing, bagpipe-playing not-drinking-on-Sundays man from Jura, or the suit-wearing financial services guy born and raised in Edinburgh? Proud Scotsman both.
We have had the same discussion on here in the past about variations within England.
But even when it comes to the systems, we are remarkably similar. Even the Scots law is similar: I can got to Scotland and be fairly aware of what I can and cannot do. We drive on the same side of the road. We share a common language. You go to the toilet and, I hate to tell you, so do the English.
Incidentally great spot from somone on here yesterday (sorry can't remember who for the hat tip) on Ed Balls own website - just to remind everyone:
In that role I was also able to give the Treasury’s support for a new Private Members Bill that led to the creation of the first ever ‘super-mutual’ bringing Britannia Building Society and the Co-op Bank together in the interests of customers, rather than the banking elite.
http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=1066
I couldnt' see the reason until then. Thanks.
Caesar: Let me have men about me that are fat, Sleek-headed men and such as sleep a-nights. Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look, He thinks too much; ...
Bubble popped already. .
As a chap once wrote: "Impiety has made a feast of thee."
Paddy Power
Conservatives 9/2 Elmet & Rothwell
8.1% majority, incumbancy bonus, pro Conservative demographic change
By comparison:
Con most seats 11/8
Con overall majority 3/1
I don't know, perhaps Ed could appear on Top Gear and show that he's one of the lads. He'll do just about anything to be PM.
Thin gruel.
I've tended to agree with the notion that 2010 was a good election to lose. After 1945 and nearly six years of sacrifice and coalition, the electorate thanked Churchill by turfing him out and bringing in softy Clem.
Perhaps Cameron needs a world crisis in April 2015 or two black swan events.
The Labour leader said that big banks are making “very big profits” and can “afford a bit more to help families.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10456531/Ed-Miliband-Banks-will-use-big-profits-to-fund-extra-childcare.html
The Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs for October recorded another sharp rise in the number of people finding both permanent and temporary jobs.
Recruiters largely linked the latest improvement to greater client demand.
The survey suggested demand for permanent staff rose at its sharpest pace since July 2007.
It also found a further sharp deterioration in availability of staff.
Permanent salaries also rose at a strong pace in October, although the rate of growth eased from September's six-year peak.
The survey results provide further evidence of a strengthening Scottish economy.
Official data released last week showed employment in Scotland increased by 16,000 over the three months to September, following a sharp rise in the previous set of figures.
And Scottish retailers reported a "tentative boost" in sales for October, with total sales increasing year-on-year by 2.1%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-24971448
"Vote Con for a fair deal for England"
1) The campaign proper doesn't start until June 2014, we saw in 2012 what The Olympics and the Diamond Jubilee did for the Unionist cause, the indyref which will happen in the background of the Commonwealth Games, The Anniversary of Bannockburn and the forthcoming Ryder Cup, so who knows what those events will do for the Independence side
2) The polls, generally show a large No lead, you can see how this lead starts to fall slightly, panic, chaos, bedlam and anarchy will reign in the BetterTogether side, and the Yes side will have the big mo.
3) Hoping the Unionist stay together, will be a challenge, remember there's 6 parties involved, The Tories, Lab and the Lib Dems, and their Scottish cousins. Big ask
4) Whilst Darling maybe impressive to some, some will remember him as the Chancellor who presided over the biggest and deepest recession since records began.
5) Everyone focusses upon Salmond, but the Yes side can call upon Nicola Sturgeon, who always impresses, I mean who can no call upon? Iain Gray?
6) There are some Tories who will be doing their utmost to see Scotland leave the Union, so Rump UK can have perpetual Tory rule.
Mike is clearly right that 1-7 is a bonkers price. But it would be unusual for what appears to be a fairly settled view for the status quo to reverse within a year. I'm old enough to remember the EEC referendum - the press kept printing stories about setbacks for the "stay in" campaign but the public just shrugged and voted at the end much as they'd been planning to all along.
Do any of the referendum polls have the "Might you change your mind?" question? Might be useful in assessing this.
1) The EU's opinion on whether post Independence there will be an automaticity to Scotland's EU membership, this position will probably be determined by events in Madrid.
2) Will rump UK allow a currency union with an Independent Scotland
But the point remains: I can go to Scotland and do things with more certainty that they are legal than I could if I went to (say) the US.On a sidenote, I've always found Japanese laws quite perplexing. As for China...
As a law expert, what is your opinion of the Scots "Not proven" verdict? It's always seemed like an odd one to me as a distinctly non-expert.
Labour/co-op politics...murkier than murk..
Taxi!
MANY Labour activists "simply cannot stomach" working alongside the Conservatives in the pro-Union Better Together campaign, the chairman of Scottish Labour has admitted.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/labour-cant-stick-working-with-toxic-better-together.22716960
That wasn't in London Labour's script......
Does that make the other side of the bet value? Here you've got a good bet if the probability of a Yes is substantially more than 16.7%. Personally I'm not tempted at that price; I think there might be a smidgen of value there, but in my judgement not enough to make this a compelling bet.
On the EU my bet would be that Scotland stay in but have no voting rights until all the haggling is done. On currency Union it rather depends on what Westminster's terms are....and who is in power in Westminster and Edinburgh.....
Then again, there's this
EUROPEAN Union leaders are downplaying an independent Scotland’s right to EU membership to compel it to join the euro, open its borders and pay more towards the European budget, according to a senior German government adviser.
EU treaties are “consistent with automatic succession of both the seceding state and the rump state” but international leaders “have a vested interest in centralisation” and “are biased against secession”, said Professor Dr Roland Vaubel, an adviser to Germany’s economics ministry.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-eu-leaders-secession-bias-1-3144158
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges1m
Has anyone got a list of how many different things Labour's Banking Levy is supposed to be spent on?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24984680
"So how on earth did he end up on 29 March 2010 becoming chairman of the Co-operative Bank - a bank with £50bn of assets, £36bn of customer deposits and 4.7m customers?"
"PS I am told Flowers used his platform as Co-op chairman to increase his influence with senior members of the Labour Party. He was on a finance and advisory group set up by the Labour leader, Ed Miliband."
For the record, I would rather No won, I expect Yes to win, and the Northern region should be allowed to do as it wishes.
Indeed. Some of us well remember the rhetoric coming from scottish labour and some Blairites at the time. A 2011 win was all but inevitable given the double digit poll leads from SLAB, while those polls were scrutinised for such things as gender gaps showing how vastly unlikely an SNP win was. Which of course led to SLAB doubling down on their negative strategy since it MUST clearly be working. Except of course it wasn't as the SNP landslide then proved.
We then got carnage in SLAB with Labour's london leadership of SLAB 100% sure about one thing. It couldn't have been their fault.
They might have been giving the orders but Iain Gray and SLAB must have carried them out incompetently. Obviously what was needed was a "root and branch reform" of how labour operate in scotland. Just how laughable does little Ed's root and branch reform of scottish labour sound after the ludicrous incompetence and corruption of Falkirk? Exactly.
So now they are all set to repeat 2011 even down to bringing back Iain Gray and almost all those behind the 2011 election strategy. But they'll definitely have learned from last time and won't repeat the staggering complacency of Labour in 2011. Won't they?
*chortle*
Quite why Salmond doesn't just say this, rather than blustering on about some God-given automatic right to get everything he wants and nothing he doesn't want, is a mystery. But then, that seems to be his position on everything, as we've seen in the arguments about the currency.
Peston being a complete four letter fellow - the time to have been digging on Flowers was whist he was being touted as Chairman of Co-Op Bank. If Peston had his ear to the ground and was using his 'contacts' surely the doubts would have have been aired earlier. The weaknesses in the Co-Op Bank's governance have not suddenly emerged, they were there in 2001, 2008 and 2013 regardless of Rev Flowers' substance use. The article makes me wonder why was this brushed aside and ignored earlier.
"There's also an important governance issue for the Co-op Group, about whether it is really appropriate for those who rise up through the political side of the co-operative movement to be able to exercise significant influence over its commercial activities.
At the bank, of course, the stable door was closed after the horse was long gone. Flowers was replaced as Co-op Bank chairman by a proper banker, Richard Pym.
PS I am told Flowers used his platform as Co-op chairman to increase his influence with senior members of the Labour Party. He was on a finance and advisory group set up by the Labour leader, Ed Miliband."
The taxpayer is still losing £billions on the rescue of RBS
Barclays have recently been forced to push through a deeply-discounted rights issue
The Co-op bank ..... enough said.
Northern Rock ....... -- ditto --
And then of course there's HSBC which makes most of its profits overseas and increasingly so.
34.8% chance of a CON win there - this is on the same calculation basis that gives Labour an 81% chance of an outright majority. 9/2 is an implied 18% chance - Head to P Power and hit max.
Incidentally, the EU-Ukraine talks are struggling - the deal needs to be signed off this month or probably wait until 2015 for technical/political reasons (EU Parliament elections, new Commission etc.). Yanukovich has visited Putin for a confidential meeting (Russia is dead keen he shouldn't sign and has offered Russian goodies if he doesn't) and his MPs have stalled in Parliament on whether to release Julia Tymoshenko, which is an EU red line (rightly IMO - her sentence was an obvious stitchup): in theory they will not meet again in time to approve a release. In reality Yanukovich can make it all happen if he wants to and he may be just playing brinkmanship, but it looked a sure thing and it's become a toss-up. It's quite a significant moment - if Ukraine drifts back towards Russia the long-term power balance changes.
The Labour Leader made clear his vision of an economy that rewarded long-termism, patient investment and shared responsibility, and of a financial industry based on Stewardship banking, recognising its responsibility to serve the real economy and to build a long-term, trusted relationship with their customer.
...
Later, during questions, Ed Balls said that five years ago building societies and credit unions were regarded as a relic of the past by the City, but that instead the City needed to learn the lessons of the mutual sector.
http://www.party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/
http://www.party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/
"Ed opened his speech by praising the Co-op: “You have always understood that ethics of responsibility, co-operation and stewardship must be at the heart of what we do.
That’s one of the reasons why the Co-op Bank has in the last week seen a 25% rise in applications for accounts.” He introduced the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, who was standing alongside him, as “a proud Labour and Co-operative MP”."
People vote with their hearts not their heads it seems. Stupid gits.
I guess those, like me, who are naturally of a more logical input->output, cause->effect mindset find the peverse decisions of others a bit bewildering. But a successful (in getting elected anyway) politician must feel this innately and message accordingly. Martin Luther King said 'I have a dream' not 'I have plan'!
The 6.5 on Con to retain Dewsbury (Labour target number 21) is also a goody.
be_in_the_ERM_for_a_while() AND join_the_euro()
...is functionally identical to:
if be_in_the_ERM_for_a_while():
join_the_euro()
But I suppose this would be a good thing to create fud about.
As the Scottish referendum looms, a beautiful friendship risks being replaced by bitter enmity
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100246275/as-the-scottish-referendum-looms-a-beautiful-friendship-risks-being-replaced-by-bitter-emnity/
Whenever this topic comes up, the line tends to be because of our similarities, the differences are negligible. No one (I hope) would seriously say that the order of difference is the same as that between e.g. Kalahari Bushmen and Sami reindeer herders, but Scotland is certainly as culturally, politically and socially distinct from England as Ireland.
On topic, as Stuart D. has been saying for a while, 1/7 is a ridiculous price for a 2 horse race, particularly when we won't know the going or weights for 8 or 9 months.
1,000 hours of BBC handwringing news coverage and 10,000 of poor Tim's post wiped out at a single stroke.
Nope, don't agree with that. Note I would not say the differences are negligible. They are not negligible; but they are not particularly large, either. IMHO, obviously.
And, schools are now to become glorified childminders.
It's so out of control that that vested interest group Estate Agents are er.. tempering expectations.
Lol.
Religion is a biggie, if you are talking about social aspects. Ireland (if we are talking about Eire) is very Catholic, and the church appears to play a much greater part in people's lives (especially in the country areas) than it does in Scotland. It also plays a large part in setting the laws in Eire.
However, I have not been to Eire much (although I plan to walk its coast one day), so these might just be tourists' impressions. ;-)
"- Bubble-preventing Mortgage Market Review bares teeth as estate agents report few Help to Buy mortgage applications have so far been approved"
I'm amazed no one on PB pointed out that the fact that all Help to Buy mortgages must be on a repayment basis and subject to strick affordibility criteria meant that the hyperbolic 'bubble' talk was ill infomed nonsense.
Oh well
5 mins later...
tim : ""House sellers' asking prices have risen at their fastest annual rate since 2007"
No further questions m'lud.
GDP Growth = Irrelevent
Falling Unemployment = A bad, inflationary thing
Falling asking prices = BOOM!!!
If you've visited the Western Isles you should be aware of how much religion is a part of life there, not to mention the historical wreckage left in the West of Scotland. I'd also suggest that religion plays its part in a more communitarian Scottish society, in the collective memory if not living faith.
Tory stooge Bradbury with the questions..
It may be very different in the cities.