Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to rate Tory chances of a majority at more

2

Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2013
    Ethical banking takes another knock.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508464/Crystal-meth-shame-bank-chief-Counting-20-notes-buy-hard-drugs-man-ran-Co-op-Bank--days-telling-MPs-lost-700m.html

    Connections with politics...must be speculation, or an attempt to spice up the story. Co-Op good at food, but bad at banking. Must have been run by people who thought Ethics was a cricket team.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.

    Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....

    I've been known to scoff a family bar of Dairy Milk when under stress.
    I thought "The Milky Bars are on Ed"?

    Meanwhile Daniel Knowles spotted it too: "Clegg on Marr. Not particularly interesting, but striking how healthy he looks - more so than in 2010. In stark contrast to David Cameron"

    I think folk who like a punt on politics should take more notice of stuff like that.

    On which note check out Teresa's fab boots:

    http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/cumbrian-teacher-in-berkshire-told-to-lose-accent-and-sound-more-southern-1.1099026
  • Mr. Ajob, aye, unfortunately all other bets have gone wrong so far, and the bet was half a stake. If Scotland lose by about 13 points or more I'll be green overall. If not, I'll be exactly evens.
  • Good Matthew d'Ancona article:

    Of course a privileged background matters, and it's not the politics of envy to say so
    Tories, like David Cameron, addressing social mobility must accept the scale of the problem and the generational commitment required


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10454183/Of-course-a-privileged-background-matters-and-its-not-the-politics-of-envy-to-say-so.html
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2013
    dr_spyn said:

    Ethical banking takes another knock.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508464/Crystal-meth-shame-bank-chief-Counting-20-notes-buy-hard-drugs-man-ran-Co-op-Bank--days-telling-MPs-lost-700m.html

    Connections with politics...must be speculation, or an attempt to spice up the story. Co-Op good at food, but bad at banking. Must have been run by people who thought Ethics was a cricket team.

    I don't see anything unethical in that report, especially not by banking standards.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Carola said:



    Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?

    The fact that Labour are doing this is something that will surprise or shock very few people.

    Whether it is correct is another matter.
    I'm not suggesting that it's right. Just that most people would expect all parties to be at it.
    Is there any evidence that the other parties would be at it?

    A genuine question, I don't know. Having lived mainly in Labour areas when in the UK (except now, we certainly had people 'supporting' Labour who didn't really know about it, but were often told that if they were working class, they should be supporting Labour, so end of story.
    I'm talking generally, not specifically re membership etc.
  • Nigel4England, you are no longer permitted to discuss Harriet Harman in relation to NCCL and PIE, today, and in the past you've made comments that have the potential to get Mike Smithson into trouble.

  • The comparison with Romney betting isn't a good one. As Nate Silver has argued, what Romney lacked was time.

    In Presidential elections, you can be more than ten points back with six months to go (Clinton was on 25%, well behind both Perot and Bush at points). What you can't afford to be is 2 or 3 points off the pace with days or hours to go. That was the Romney backers' mistake - they forgot that time matters and they'd run out.

    In the UK, there are 18 months to go. Labour are in the lead and therefore favourites. But there genuinely is a hell of a long way to go. So the comparison with Romney/Obama is terribly flawed.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.

    Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....

    I've been known to scoff a family bar of Dairy Milk when under stress.
    That's what Dave believes in, family bars of chocolate, you've got it.
    I thought dave in opposition made a policy announcement on chocolate oranges.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 1h
    Where is the scientific evidence that Philippine hurricane caused by global warming? Latest IPCC report says there is none.

    Mr Neil report to room 101 for re-programming.
  • The comparison with Romney betting isn't a good one. As Nate Silver has argued, what Romney lacked was time.

    In Presidential elections, you can be more than ten points back with six months to go (Clinton was on 25%, well behind both Perot and Bush at points). What you can't afford to be is 2 or 3 points off the pace with days or hours to go. That was the Romney backers' mistake - they forgot that time matters and they'd run out.

    In the UK, there are 18 months to go. Labour are in the lead and therefore favourites. But there genuinely is a hell of a long way to go. So the comparison with Romney/Obama is terribly flawed.

    Nah, Romney's problem wasn't time. It was that not enough people wanted to vote for him. There was a theory on how he might win, based on the idea that Dems wouldn't turn out, that convinced people to back him. It could have been right based on what we knew at the time, but it turned out to be wrong, and it would still have been wrong if the election had been later.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 1h
    Where is the scientific evidence that Philippine hurricane caused by global warming? Latest IPCC report says there is none.

    Mr Neil report to room 101 for re-programming.

    Presenting Andrew Neil as Patrick Mcgoohan in "The Prisoner"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6Ffr1U7KMY
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    tim said:

    Yorkcity said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.

    Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....

    I've been known to scoff a family bar of Dairy Milk when under stress.
    That's what Dave believes in, family bars of chocolate, you've got it.
    I thought dave in opposition made a policy announcement on chocolate oranges.

    That was then but this is now, his positions on chocolate are not firm, they're flakey
    Flakey is about right .

    Dave is ITV Digital in comparison

    Tony would be Virgin Media

    Margaret SKY
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Another thread on Con maj - yet never any posts backing the Con maj bet.


    Pushing on an open door.

  • Nah, Romney's problem wasn't time. It was that not enough people wanted to vote for him. There was a theory on how he might win, based on the idea that Dems wouldn't turn out, that convinced people to back him. It could have been right based on what we knew at the time, but it turned out to be wrong, and it would still have been wrong if the election had been later.

    On one level you're right, but every losing candidate's problem is ultimately that not enough people want to vote for them!

    With six months to go, there were things Romney could put right to change the numbers. But he bought into the theory you mention - that if he played it very cautiously, he'd win on turnout in a close race. So he focused on too few states (only what he needed, leaving no room for some to slip away), made no bold announcements (other than his "bold" secretly recorded blunder!), chose a safe VP and so on. His big regret now, I suspect, is that he didn't roll the dice. He's the team that set up for a nil-nil draw in the second leg, and lost two-nil.
  • Yorkcity said:



    Flakey is about right .

    Dave is ITV Digital in comparison

    Tony would be Virgin Media

    Margaret SKY

    Like it.

    Gordon = British Satellite Broadcasting

    Major = Freeview

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Carola's theory on politico chub (or not) symptoms:

    Dave/George - they know, deep down, that they're not up to the job. Self-doubt. Disappointment. Have a cake.

    Danny - deep down, he doesn't like what he's having to do. He wants to be a hard man but he hasn't got the *subconscious* guts. So he's plumpin' 'em up.

    Clegg - this isn't the be all and end all. My ambitions lie elsewhere.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Carola said:

    Carola said:



    Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?

    The fact that Labour are doing this is something that will surprise or shock very few people.

    Whether it is correct is another matter.
    I'm not suggesting that it's right. Just that most people would expect all parties to be at it.
    Imagine if a Hedge Fund, which had helped David Cameron secure the Tory Leadership, and was the biggest donor to the Tory party had been caught trying to stuff a safe Tory seat with members to secure the selection of their preferred candidate, Further imagine that Cameron's office was aware of that and his Deputy Chairman and General Election coordinated had helped move things along. As rumours emerge the Deputy Chairman and General Election coordinator resigns to spend more time on the back benches. Cameron is then panicked into announcing an inquiry into said stuffing and, a day after Labour, calls in the police. Statements are retracted and the inquiry goes nowhere. But it's not over yet, one of those on the ground is involved in an industrial dispute which threatens thousands of jobs and nearly leads to the closure of a major piece of infrastructure. Said person resigns before he can be sacked, but details of his activity leak to the press.....

    Further imagine that our friends on the left airily dismissed all this as 'well, they all do it, nothing to see here" and never mention it again.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    Yorkcity said:

    tim said:

    Yorkcity said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.

    Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....

    I've been known to scoff a family bar of Dairy Milk when under stress.
    That's what Dave believes in, family bars of chocolate, you've got it.
    I thought dave in opposition made a policy announcement on chocolate oranges.

    That was then but this is now, his positions on chocolate are not firm, they're flakey
    Flakey is about right .

    Dave is ITV Digital in comparison

    Tony would be Virgin Media

    Margaret SKY
    And who would be the Outer Hebrides Broadcasting Corporation?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm9I4hbyY6M
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Lots of chocalate rabbits off today.. makes a change I suppose..No one wants to discuss Hideaway Ed's and Len's majestic cock up which is allowing the Conservatives to get in and rip apart some Union voting practises..Political Giants...arf..
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Doris Lessing has died.


  • Nah, Romney's problem wasn't time. It was that not enough people wanted to vote for him. There was a theory on how he might win, based on the idea that Dems wouldn't turn out, that convinced people to back him. It could have been right based on what we knew at the time, but it turned out to be wrong, and it would still have been wrong if the election had been later.

    On one level you're right, but every losing candidate's problem is ultimately that not enough people want to vote for them!

    With six months to go, there were things Romney could put right to change the numbers. But he bought into the theory you mention - that if he played it very cautiously, he'd win on turnout in a close race. So he focused on too few states (only what he needed, leaving no room for some to slip away), made no bold announcements (other than his "bold" secretly recorded blunder!), chose a safe VP and so on. His big regret now, I suspect, is that he didn't roll the dice. He's the team that set up for a nil-nil draw in the second leg, and lost two-nil.
    It's easy to forget with hindsight but Ryan was quite a bold pick. A lot of people would have said his budget would hurt the ticket, but Romney gambled that it wouldn't, and it didn't. Admittedly it wasn't Sarah Palin bold, but realistically nobody was going to do that again.

    As for the idea that he should have contested more states: Which states?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Unite still wondering how they managed to draw attention to themselves.

    http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unite-government-review-of-unions-no-more-than-a-tory-election-stunt/#

    It's just a cunning stunt...so intimidation, and bullying has its place for Len's men and women?
  • dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 1h
    Where is the scientific evidence that Philippine hurricane caused by global warming? Latest IPCC report says there is none.

    Mr Neil report to room 101 for re-programming.

    No evidence that the typhoon is caused by global warming or no evidence for global warming?

    If the former, it is a scientifically illiterate question, although climate change might cause an increase (or decrease) in frequency or strength.

    If the latter, the IPCC says: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased"
    http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_brochure.pdf
  • Falkirk QT - PB Tories now running the BBC.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cut 'n paste job at the Guardian's work experience trainee.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/13/hornby-model-railway-sales-profit-fall

    Odd - 50 year old product made by rival company.
  • Church proclaims that the sinfulness of man is causing wickedness in the world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24975106
  • Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.
  • TGOHF said:

    Another thread on Con maj - yet never any posts backing the Con maj bet.


    Pushing on an open door.

    The reason is quite simple. I don't think that it is possible while so many 2010 LDs say they'll vote LAB.

    If that changes or other factors come into play I'll change my position.

    My preferred outcome is a continuation of what we've got.
  • Harman signed off on the infamous NCCL report, or PB Moderator is that fact now just an allegation in the Telegraph etc?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_consent_manifestations_(UK)#cite_note-10

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4949555/Harriet-Harman-under-attack-over-bid-to-water-down-child-pornography-law.html
    "The NCCL argued "childhood sexual experiences, willingly engaged in, with an adult result in no identifiable damage", suggesting more harm was caused when the children retold their experiences in court or to the press. The submission was signed by Harriet Harman"
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Carola said:



    Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?

    The fact that Labour are doing this is something that will surprise or shock very few people.

    Whether it is correct is another matter.
    I'm not suggesting that it's right. Just that most people would expect all parties to be at it.
    Imagine if a Hedge Fund, which had helped David Cameron secure the Tory Leadership, and was the biggest donor to the Tory party had been caught trying to stuff a safe Tory seat with members to secure the selection of their preferred candidate, Further imagine that Cameron's office was aware of that and his Deputy Chairman and General Election coordinated had helped move things along. As rumours emerge the Deputy Chairman and General Election coordinator resigns to spend more time on the back benches. Cameron is then panicked into announcing an inquiry into said stuffing and, a day after Labour, calls in the police. Statements are retracted and the inquiry goes nowhere. But it's not over yet, one of those on the ground is involved in an industrial dispute which threatens thousands of jobs and nearly leads to the closure of a major piece of infrastructure. Said person resigns before he can be sacked, but details of his activity leak to the press.....

    Further imagine that our friends on the left airily dismissed all this as 'well, they all do it, nothing to see here" and never mention it again.....
    Carlotta - what do you want me to say? That I think that would be okay? Of course not. I'm just less convinced than you that it's going to shift any votes. And if Ed is toppled? Do you think that will happen? If it does, will it affect the Labour vote? If there was a decent alternative it could boost it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    dr_spyn said:

    Unite still wondering how they managed to draw attention to themselves.

    http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unite-government-review-of-unions-no-more-than-a-tory-election-stunt/#

    It's just a cunning stunt...so intimidation, and bullying has its place for Len's men and women?

    " no trade unionist will collaborate with."

    So I guess they won't be 'collaborating' with the part of the inquiry that covers blacklisting either?

    But it will also be aimed at hardline tactics employed by firms such as blacklisting, ministers indicated. This practice has led to some workers being frozen out and left unable to get a job because of their trade union activism or for having queried conditions.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/vince-cable-orders-grangemouth-union-probe-1-3191761
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The annual survey of public attitudes suggests Britain has readjusted its priorities and is looking at countries such as Germany and Canada as new role models. Any prospect of economic recovery during the current electoral term is off the agenda, the study suggests, 2020 being the year when most British people envisage a return to financial health.

    The Moody Britain 2013 report, which canvassed people from across Scotland, England and Wales, says: "We found the greater fear was not that we may never see the prosperity we experienced in the late 1990s and 2000s, but that in the insane rush to regain it we may repeat the mistakes of the past."

    The report, by the advertising agency McCann London, suggests "what was once boring is now trendy" and "aggressive and risky are out, careful and sustainable are in". It finds greater levels of contentment, with the number of Brits agreeing that "the country is still a great country to live in" at its highest level since 2007. But it comes with a warning for the next generation: only 15 per cent of the 2,016 people polled agreed that "today's 25-year-olds will be better off than today's 50-year-olds when they reach the same age".

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/moody-britain-we-might-feel-a-little-deflated-but-we-are-also-more-settled--and-realistic
  • F1: Korea, New Jersey and Mexico are missing, apparently, from the 2014 calendar. None are especially surprising. I think that'd make it 19 races, as per this year.

    Annoyingly, the season will end in Abu Dhabi (Interlagos is a better circuit by a bloody mile):
    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/the-2014-f1-calendar/
  • On thread - isn't this the point of Betfair exchanges to be pseudo-stock markets and to discount future events as best you are able.

    Unlike fixed price spot bets, win or lose in May 2015, isn't Betfair a moving target of expectations which can fluctuate and currently for whatever reasons the market is pricing in a significant recovery for the Blues at some point between now and the election - presumably expecting Ed to be impeached - it may not last and then the price may drift again but that's what the pricing is suggesting now.

    I don't get the logic of OGH to so criticise this forecast and if he's so sure it's inefficient pricing then just lay the Tory majority all day long and then surprise surprise he'll likely move the market?
  • "Certainly I expect backing for UKIP to decline in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds as we get closer to May 2015"

    Its the logical thing but ...

    ... as the Cameroon ship sinks the cultists on board show signs of lashing out at others.

    I use the word 'cultists' deliberately. The Cameroon cheerleaders really have gone all-in psychologically on the brilliance of their man - every possible alternative or opponent is damned as crap, no criticism is allowed, no helpful suggestions for the Conservatives can be listened to, no rational discussion about the past allowed. Instead Cameron is declared to be a political titan whose actions - past, present and future - are impossible to be equaled let alone bettered.

    The anger and hatred this lashing out will display is likely to solidify UKIP support among ex-Con voters but it might drive UKIP's ex-Lab voters back to Labour as they are reminded how much they dislike the 'nasty' party.

    Now wouldn't that be ironic.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Carola said:

    Carola's theory on politico chub (or not) symptoms:

    Dave/George - they know, deep down, that they're not up to the job. Self-doubt. Disappointment. Have a cake.

    Danny - deep down, he doesn't like what he's having to do. He wants to be a hard man but he hasn't got the *subconscious* guts. So he's plumpin' 'em up.

    Clegg - this isn't the be all and end all. My ambitions lie elsewhere.

    If i was Clegg i'd need a mug full of happy pills to get me out of bed in the morning.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TGOHF said:

    Another thread on Con maj - yet never any posts backing the Con maj bet.


    Pushing on an open door.

    They are now the shy types. Part of the "nail on" Tory majority brigade.
  • "Nest of Vipers" contd......
    Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. ....... . They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival. And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
    Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,

    The real significance IMHO is that this is hard evidence of the splits and divisions that Hodges and others have said exists built around the "trust" problems at the top of Labour.
  • Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.

    What the Sun considers to be important matters a lot less these days. It had no online presence any more thanks to the paywall and it's circulation is nothing like it was.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MrJones said:
    Just accuse Basharat Ali of racism and xenophobia to close down the argument?
  • dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 1h
    Where is the scientific evidence that Philippine hurricane caused by global warming? Latest IPCC report says there is none.

    Mr Neil report to room 101 for re-programming.

    Cults don't need evidence.

    They rely on faith.

    And if they achieve power on persecution of 'unbelievers'.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Public attitudes part 2

    The shop-till-you-drop, credit-fuelled lifestyle has become increasingly difficult and implausible as a future for us. People have finally grown comfortable with the idea that the days of rapid personal economic growth are over."

    The findings also show a backlash against technology companies similar to that against bankers, both Facebook and Google rating less favourably than RBS. "Both have gone from unquestionable forces of good to devil incarnate in no time at all," the report says. "The year 2013 has seen their public image ravaged until they are seen as less ethically upright than even the bogeymen of the credit crunch."

    The survey also showed immigration remains a divisive issue in Britain.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Are you feeling squeezed? I expect many Londoners feel so:

    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel
    Population density: Germany 583 per square mile, France 301, Romania 219, Poland 320, Italy 512, Spain 240, Lithuania 141.....England 1,054!
  • Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.

    What the Sun considers to be important matters a lot less these days. It had no online presence any more thanks to the paywall and it's circulation is nothing like it was.

    Erm OGH you appear to be playing the commentator and not the point at hand.
    You think it's a normal and healthy sign for these emails to be leaked?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I must admit to being surprised at 200 000 Roma in the country. We have seen a lot of stories about Page Hall, but which other places have big Roma populations?

    I can see the Euro election run up being dominated by stories like this.
    MrJones said:
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    isam said:

    MrJones said:
    Just accuse Basharat Ali of racism and xenophobia to close down the argument?
    Nah, they have to just ignore it - cognitive dissonance innit.
  • Instead Cameron is declared to be a political titan whose actions - past, present and future - are impossible to be equaled let alone bettered.

    Strawman - who posts such stuff? The Cons are frequently more critical of their leadership than Lab......

  • It's easy to forget with hindsight but Ryan was quite a bold pick. A lot of people would have said his budget would hurt the ticket, but Romney gambled that it wouldn't, and it didn't. Admittedly it wasn't Sarah Palin bold, but realistically nobody was going to do that again.

    As for the idea that he should have contested more states: Which states?

    Ryan wasn't that bold. Fresh faced candidate, potentially bringing a state into play, not likely to overshadow the candidate. Palin was a classic Hail Mary pass. But Rubio or Christie would have been the risks in this context - big hitters who might overshadow the main man.

    On states to bring into play, I know it seems crazy given the ultimate results (but these states were totally ignored by the GOP so the results were inevitably stretched out) but New Jersey and California. Both Democrat states but with some credible people on the GOP bench and, if you get some polls that show either one of these in play, it spreads panic and changes the narrative.
  • TGOHF said:

    Another thread on Con maj - yet never any posts backing the Con maj bet.

    Pushing on an open door.

    The reason is quite simple. I don't think that it is possible while so many 2010 LDs say they'll vote LAB.

    If that changes or other factors come into play I'll change my position.

    My preferred outcome is a continuation of what we've got.
    What's amazing about this is that we're maybe 100 posts into the nth thread on the subject on a site with people of all different political persuasions and there still doesn't appear to be anybody prepared to make the case supporting the considered opinion of the markets. Who on earth is backing Con Maj at this price? Don't they read the site?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    Are you feeling squeezed? I expect many Londoners feel so:

    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel
    Population density: Germany 583 per square mile, France 301, Romania 219, Poland 320, Italy 512, Spain 240, Lithuania 141.....England 1,054!

    I have believed that the population density of Holland is greater than that of England. Do you have the number?

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2013

    TGOHF said:

    Another thread on Con maj - yet never any posts backing the Con maj bet.

    Pushing on an open door.

    The reason is quite simple. I don't think that it is possible while so many 2010 LDs say they'll vote LAB.

    If that changes or other factors come into play I'll change my position.

    My preferred outcome is a continuation of what we've got.
    What's amazing about this is that we're maybe 100 posts into the nth thread on the subject on a site with people of all different political persuasions and there still doesn't appear to be anybody prepared to make the case supporting the considered opinion of the markets. Who on earth is backing Con Maj at this price? Don't they read the site?
    You can make exactly the same argument from another perspective - day in day out, we hear the Tory majority odds are ridiculous and yet all these PB readers and punters, don't spot this clear market pricing error despite all the guidance and so charge off to lay the Blues on betfair....

    Go figure.

  • It's easy to forget with hindsight but Ryan was quite a bold pick. A lot of people would have said his budget would hurt the ticket, but Romney gambled that it wouldn't, and it didn't. Admittedly it wasn't Sarah Palin bold, but realistically nobody was going to do that again.

    As for the idea that he should have contested more states: Which states?

    Ryan wasn't that bold. Fresh faced candidate, potentially bringing a state into play, not likely to overshadow the candidate. Palin was a classic Hail Mary pass. But Rubio or Christie would have been the risks in this context - big hitters who might overshadow the main man.

    On states to bring into play, I know it seems crazy given the ultimate results (but these states were totally ignored by the GOP so the results were inevitably stretched out) but New Jersey and California. Both Democrat states but with some credible people on the GOP bench and, if you get some polls that show either one of these in play, it spreads panic and changes the narrative.
    Rubio would have been less risky than Ryan, and less rewarding.

    As things turned out what would might have happened if he'd pick Christie is an interesting counter-factual. It might actually have got him to the White House, but there was no way to know that ahead of time.

    And as for California and New Jersey, note that even now Christie is polling well behind Hillary in New Jersey, in a hypothetical match-up with Christie at the top of the ticket, after he got reelected in a landslide with a huge amount of Dem support for him as governor. The reason Romney campaigning in those states sounds crazy is because it is.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Surbiton .. Clearly they do..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    dr_spyn said:

    Cut 'n paste job at the Guardian's work experience trainee.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/13/hornby-model-railway-sales-profit-fall

    Odd - 50 year old product made by rival company.

    Worse than that: it should be in crimson. ;-)
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    "Certainly I expect backing for UKIP to decline in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds as we get closer to May 2015"

    Its the logical thing but ...

    ... as the Cameroon ship sinks the cultists on board show signs of lashing out at others.

    I use the word 'cultists' deliberately. The Cameroon cheerleaders really have gone all-in psychologically on the brilliance of their man - every possible alternative or opponent is damned as crap, no criticism is allowed, no helpful suggestions for the Conservatives can be listened to, no rational discussion about the past allowed. Instead Cameron is declared to be a political titan whose actions - past, present and future - are impossible to be equaled let alone bettered.

    The anger and hatred this lashing out will display is likely to solidify UKIP support among ex-Con voters but it might drive UKIP's ex-Lab voters back to Labour as they are reminded how much they dislike the 'nasty' party.

    Now wouldn't that be ironic.

    While I have some sympathy with UKIP' s position. The more I'm exposed to their supporters the more the BNP for pussies jibe rings true. Some of the commenters on here would be perfectly comfortable in BNP colours apart from the fact they lack the courage to do it. As long as that continues they will never get my vote.
  • surbiton said:

    Bobajob said:

    Carola said:

    Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?

    This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?

    As Victoria Coren pointed out on HIGNFY, it's a bit like The Wire. Unless you have followed every single one of Carlotta's updates you have zero chance of grasping the enormity of this massive story.
    What do you think of the Labour-Uncut link I posted below?

    Carlotta, no one gives a t*ss !
    It was a response to questions from both Carola & BaJ......so If you 'don't give a toss' why bother responding? Or do you 'give a toss' and pray that it goes away?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Some of us are quite interested in this "non-story"
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2013

    Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.

    What the Sun considers to be important matters a lot less these days. It had no online presence any more thanks to the paywall and it's circulation is nothing like it was.
    OK OGH you do not rate the messenger, but the email stories are in the Mail, the paper with the biggest sales after the Sun, and the biggest online readership. That said, up to now we have had no hard evidence of Balls vs Milliband splits. now we have. Contrast that with Cameron and Osborne where there is very very little sign of splits and briefing.

    PS OGH I agree with your main article that the betting is too optimistic in backing the Conservatives based on the trend in the last few months polling.
  • Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.

    it's circulation is nothing like it was.
    And still almost double all the 'qualities' combined......(and more than ten times the Guardian's....)

  • I must admit to being surprised at 200 000 Roma in the country. We have seen a lot of stories about Page Hall, but which other places have big Roma populations?

    I can see the Euro election run up being dominated by stories like this.

    MrJones said:
    There's apparantly 5000 Slovakian Roma in adjacent Rotherham, leading to similar issues. This article is from 2010:

    ' MIGRANT children are living in poverty-ridden and cramped Rotherham houses of up to 20 people, a shock report reveals.

    There is concern about parenting responsibilities and health and sexual exploitation among the growing Slovakian Roma community residing mainly in Eastwood.

    Evidence of human trafficking and fraud is also worrying Rotherham Borough Council, which faces mounting costs and stretched resources.

    Community engagement and cohesion manager Zafar Saleem said in a Cabinet report: “The current issues being experienced are having a significant impact on council resources.

    “Children’s services is having to fund a range of services such as free school meals, support for parents and accommodation costs due to safeguarding and overcrowding issues.”

    Overcrowding presents welfare and fire safety issues but complicated laws have meant just three formal notices issued.

    “The complexity of the law has made it difficult to pursue further cases,” said Mr Saleem. “However all legal options are being explored.

    “Forty-eight people have left eight properties as a result of overcrowding and two non-compliant landlords are being taken to court.”

    Almost 550 school age children have moved in to Rotherham in the past 12 months. Of these, 449 were from the EU, 379 of Roma origin and 26 were seeking asylum. '

    http://www.rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk/news/87567/shocking-misery-of-rotherham-s-immigrant-kids.aspx
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    "Nest of Vipers" contd......

    Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
    The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
    They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
    And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.



    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX

    Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,

    Sounds like Blair and Brown all over again.

    That went well didn't it?

    Britain really does deserve better.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    The Sunday Politics leads on the Union 'leverage' investigation and the MoS Mili/Balls email leak....commenting that the emails are a lot milder than the off the record briefings.....so that's two 'non-stories' then......
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    saddened said:

    "Certainly I expect backing for UKIP to decline in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds as we get closer to May 2015"

    Its the logical thing but ...

    ... as the Cameroon ship sinks the cultists on board show signs of lashing out at others.

    I use the word 'cultists' deliberately. The Cameroon cheerleaders really have gone all-in psychologically on the brilliance of their man - every possible alternative or opponent is damned as crap, no criticism is allowed, no helpful suggestions for the Conservatives can be listened to, no rational discussion about the past allowed. Instead Cameron is declared to be a political titan whose actions - past, present and future - are impossible to be equaled let alone bettered.

    The anger and hatred this lashing out will display is likely to solidify UKIP support among ex-Con voters but it might drive UKIP's ex-Lab voters back to Labour as they are reminded how much they dislike the 'nasty' party.

    Now wouldn't that be ironic.

    While I have some sympathy with UKIP' s position. The more I'm exposed to their supporters the more the BNP for pussies jibe rings true. Some of the commenters on here would be perfectly comfortable in BNP colours apart from the fact they lack the courage to do it. As long as that continues they will never get my vote.
    A bit presumptious?!


  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    I must admit to being surprised at 200 000 Roma in the country. We have seen a lot of stories about Page Hall, but which other places have big Roma populations?

    I can see the Euro election run up being dominated by stories like this.

    MrJones said:
    Defo.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I must admit to being surprised at 200 000 Roma in the country. We have seen a lot of stories about Page Hall, but which other places have big Roma populations?

    I can see the Euro election run up being dominated by stories like this.

    MrJones said:
    There's apparantly 5000 Slovakian Roma in adjacent Rotherham, leading to similar issues. This article is from 2010:

    ' MIGRANT children are living in poverty-ridden and cramped Rotherham houses of up to 20 people, a shock report reveals.

    There is concern about parenting responsibilities and health and sexual exploitation among the growing Slovakian Roma community residing mainly in Eastwood.

    Evidence of human trafficking and fraud is also worrying Rotherham Borough Council, which faces mounting costs and stretched resources.

    Community engagement and cohesion manager Zafar Saleem said in a Cabinet report: “The current issues being experienced are having a significant impact on council resources.

    “Children’s services is having to fund a range of services such as free school meals, support for parents and accommodation costs due to safeguarding and overcrowding issues.”

    Overcrowding presents welfare and fire safety issues but complicated laws have meant just three formal notices issued.

    “The complexity of the law has made it difficult to pursue further cases,” said Mr Saleem. “However all legal options are being explored.

    “Forty-eight people have left eight properties as a result of overcrowding and two non-compliant landlords are being taken to court.”

    Almost 550 school age children have moved in to Rotherham in the past 12 months. Of these, 449 were from the EU, 379 of Roma origin and 26 were seeking asylum. '

    http://www.rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk/news/87567/shocking-misery-of-rotherham-s-immigrant-kids.aspx
    tim proved this 200,000 figure wrong the other day by posting a piece by a leftie who guessed from his own experience that it was less than 200,000
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Carlotta but,but,but ..nobody gives a toss...heheh
  • tim said:

    The Sunday Politics leads on the Union 'leverage' investigation and the MoS Mili/Balls email leak....commenting that the emails are a lot milder than the off the record briefings.....so that's two 'non-stories' then......


    Interestingly the Lib Dems are saying it's an investigation into businesses too
    I've already pointed this out down thread - which makes Unite's call to refuse to 'collaborate' rather curious.....
  • tim said:

    Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.

    it's circulation is nothing like it was.
    And still almost double all the 'qualities' combined......(and more than ten times the Guardian's....)

    Really?

    Whats the Sun readership since it went behind a paywall 104 million a month?

    "The statistics also show that the Guardian is the most-read news site in the UK with 10.4 million readers, 523,000 more than the Mail Online which has 9.9 million. The Guardian took over from the Mail Online as the most read daily newspaper website in the UK in March."
    OGH comment was on 'circulation' - as was mine.

    How many of the Guardian readers are in the UK?

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Floater said:


    Sounds like Blair and Brown all over again.

    That went well didn't it?

    Britain really does deserve better.

    The relationship between Prime Minister and Chancellor has afflicted many Governments. We don't even know how strong the Cameron-Osborne bond is in truth. The recent reshuffle looked like Osborne manoeuvring to take over a post-Cameron Government or even a post-Cameron party.

    There are two sorts of Chancellor - the political Chancellor who sees the top job as the next logical step and the financial expert who is less interested in the politics of the job (the need to get the Government re-elected) than in the economics. The problem with the former is the innate rivalry between No's 10 and 11 Downing Street while the latter works for a beneficial economic policy that doesn't deliver politically and that becomes a source of conflict.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2013

    tim said:

    Tom Newton Dunn tweets: Most imp political story in the Sundays is MoS's Mili/Balls row. Biggest development is Labour SPADs now leaking against each other again.

    it's circulation is nothing like it was.
    And still almost double all the 'qualities' combined......(and more than ten times the Guardian's....)

    Really?

    Whats the Sun readership since it went behind a paywall 104 million a month?

    "The statistics also show that the Guardian is the most-read news site in the UK with 10.4 million readers, 523,000 more than the Mail Online which has 9.9 million. The Guardian took over from the Mail Online as the most read daily newspaper website in the UK in March."
    OGH comment was on 'circulation' - as was mine.

    How many of the Guardian readers are in the UK?

    People don't watch the BBC so much these days....

    DailySunday Politics‏@daily_politics22m
    .@nicholaswatt: relations between @Ed_Miliband and @edballsmp are "pretty bad"
  • Another day another formulaic oh-so-subtle labour social media policy to hit the net positive ratings of Cameron vs own party... no need to bring in 'fop' to the template just yet...

    [insert Labour name] talking about Cameron's [insert topic] crisis

    Labour Press Team‏@labourpress4m
    WATCH: BBC Sunday Politics - Labour's Shadow Health Secretary @andyburnhammp talking about Cameron's A & E crisis
  • On the Sunday Politics after Health Questions Milburn is asked about the Union investigation ......and then Neil goes on to the Mili/Balls emails......two non stories in one interview......
  • subtle isn't it....

    Labour Press Team‏@labourpress2m
    On BBC Sunday Politics @andyburnhammp says "it has got much harder to get an appointment with a GP under Cameron"
  • Now Labour List are covering the emails 'non-story':

    It’s clearly damaging for the party for such disagreements to be out in the open – but the emails being out in public (and in a hostile newspaper) raises several questions, such as:

    How did these private internal emails that only a handful (or a couple) of people would have had access to end up in the papers (and the Mail on Sunday at that)?

    Who benefits from such a leak? (That’s what many senior Labour figures are asking this morning as the search for the leaker begins). Fingers are being pointed already, which doesn’t speak well for internal harmony/trust in the leader’s office


    http://labourlist.org/2013/11/senior-miliband-staffer-brands-ed-balls-messaging-a-nightmare-but-this-row-is-bigger-than-that/
  • I mean seriously subtle...


    Andy Sawford MP @AndySawfordMP
    Good to see @andyburnhammp on #sundaypolitics defending the NHS. The Tories have now cut 5,800 nurses #costofcameron
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited November 2013
    Ahead of deadline to send applications for Labour Falkirk selection (next Thursday), Scotsman reports on some names who have applied so far:

    Pam Duncan (policy officer for disabled people’s charity Inclusion Scotland)
    Monica Lennon (South Lanarkshire Cllr, works for Tom Greatrex)
    Karen Whitefield (former MSP for Airdrie and Shotts)
    Linda Gow (former Falkirk council leader, also in the original race)
  • BBC Politics had two Labour supporting Guardian hacks in the comment seat this Sunday. Nicholas Watt and Zoe Williams. Plus one from the FT. Hardly balance!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The most recent figures on Leicester that I can find are of 2010 from the city council, giving 3,000 mostly in the Evington and Highfields areas.

    http://www.leicester.gov.uk/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=97309

    That would be broadly in line with 200 000 nationally. This is based on the assumption that the numbers are unchanged since 2010, and that all the Czech and Slovak Roma are in Leicester, with none in the surrounding county. As Leics has a population of 950 000, it would project to 208 000 nationally, assuming of course other areas are the same. 200 000 seems a reasonable estimate.

    If immigration is so beneficial, why are you so keen to pooh pooh the figures tim?


    tim said:

    isam said:

    I must admit to being surprised at 200 000 Roma in the country. We have seen a lot of stories about Page Hall, but which other places have big Roma populations?

    I can see the Euro election run up being dominated by stories like this.

    MrJones said:
    There's apparantly 5000 Slovakian Roma in adjacent Rotherham, leading to similar issues. This article is from 2010:

    ' MIGRANT children are living in poverty-ridden and cramped Rotherham houses of up to 20 people, a shock report reveals.

    There is concern about parenting responsibilities and health and sexual exploitation among the growing Slovakian Roma community residing mainly in Eastwood.



    http://www.rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk/news/87567/shocking-misery-of-rotherham-s-immigrant-kids.aspx
    tim proved this 200,000 figure wrong the other day by posting a piece by a leftie who guessed from his own experience that it was less than 200,000

    The 200,000 figure comes from a self selecting survey, nobody knows basically.
    But the 200,000 figure will be bandied about on here like the 13,000 needless deaths under Labour was.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    BBC Politics had two Labour supporting Guardian hacks in the comment seat this Sunday. Nicholas Watt and Zoe Williams. Plus one from the FT. Hardly balance!

    It's a left-liberal media conspiracy, so it is.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeK said:

    Are you feeling squeezed? I expect many Londoners feel so:

    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel
    Population density: Germany 583 per square mile, France 301, Romania 219, Poland 320, Italy 512, Spain 240, Lithuania 141.....England 1,054!

    London is a city. The other names are countries. In that case, Singapore , Hong Kong ?
  • BBC Politics had two Labour supporting Guardian hacks in the comment seat this Sunday. Nicholas Watt and Zoe Williams. Plus one from the FT. Hardly balance!

    Except that in 2010 readers of the Guardian were advised to vote for the Lib Dems and those of the FT to vote for the Conservatives.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    TGOHF said:

    Another thread on Con maj - yet never any posts backing the Con maj bet.


    Pushing on an open door.

    The reason is quite simple. I don't think that it is possible while so many 2010 LDs say they'll vote LAB.

    If that changes or other factors come into play I'll change my position.

    My preferred outcome is a continuation of what we've got.
    With Dave or Ed as PM?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Dan Hodges.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    MrJones said:

    Bankstas have spent the last 30 years looting Britain and transferring that wealth abroad. For example the tax scam where a UK company can register their brand in Monaco and use that to to transfer all their profits there tax-free. Is all the looted wealth from those tax scams and the income that derives from them counted in the UK's Gini coefficient. No.

    Banksta (aka trickle-down) economics only benefits the rich as the last 30 years prove beyond any doubt - or at least they would only benefit the rich if they didn't always end in deflationary spirals so in the end they damage everyone.

    There have been net capital transfers to the UK in and every one of the last 12 years by the worlds' super rich. Your 'Bankstas' have been stashing assets in the UK. Now, you can suggest they are doing this in a dodgy tax manner (although how this squares with your point that said Bankstas are paying *more* tax is another story; I guess consistency has never been your strong point), but Britain is a indisputably haven for the assets of said Bankstas, rather than the opposite.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Ahead of deadline to send applications for Labour Falkirk selection (next Thursday), Scotsman reports on some names who have applied so far:

    Pam Duncan (policy officer for disabled people’s charity Inclusion Scotland)
    Monica Lennon (South Lanarkshire Cllr, works for Tom Greatrex)
    Karen Whitefield (former MSP for Airdrie and Shotts)
    Linda Gow (former Falkirk council leader, also in the original race)

    Unite?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Len McClusky.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Mornington Crescent.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Bobajob said:

    Carola said:

    Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?

    This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?

    Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/

    This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
    So he failed to tackle "machine politics". Well now we know.
    It says a lot about his character: hypocrisy and untrustworthiness.

    Will is shift many votes: no.

    Should it influence thoughtful people's views on whether EdM is a suitable person to be PM: absolutely.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Bobajob said:

    Carola said:

    Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?

    This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?

    As Victoria Coren pointed out on HIGNFY, it's a bit like The Wire. Unless you have followed every single one of Carlotta's updates you have zero chance of grasping the enormity of this massive story.
    What do you think of the Labour-Uncut link I posted below?

    Carlotta, no one gives a t*ss !
    It was a response to questions from both Carola & BaJ......so If you 'don't give a toss' why bother responding? Or do you 'give a toss' and pray that it goes away?

    To be very honest, I do not even know the full details of what "went on" in Falkirk. The summary seems to be that Unite wanted their candidate to win. I have been in the Labour Party for over 30 years. Is that really news ? You might be surprised to know that the Trade Unions gave birth to the Labour Party. Unions are part of the Labour family. My own preference is for one member , one vote and it will come sooner rather than later.

    It would matter if I had read about 10 other constituencies but so far even with you and Fitalass working overtime, I have not heard a second name being mentioned. So, like the rest of the country, for me, so far, it's a big yawn.

    In the meantime, why don't you work to get Anan Soubry a winnable seat ? She deserves to become your leader.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    perdix said:

    MikeK said:

    Are you feeling squeezed? I expect many Londoners feel so:

    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel
    Population density: Germany 583 per square mile, France 301, Romania 219, Poland 320, Italy 512, Spain 240, Lithuania 141.....England 1,054!

    I have believed that the population density of Holland is greater than that of England. Do you have the number?

    If you go here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_population_density - you can see all the countries in the world by population density.

    We're 51st, with a population density less than one-fiftieth of the most dense.

    Even skipping the city states, we're one sixth the level of Malta. Not a place I think of as insanely crowded.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Bobajob said:

    Carola said:

    Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?

    This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?

    As Victoria Coren pointed out on HIGNFY, it's a bit like The Wire. Unless you have followed every single one of Carlotta's updates you have zero chance of grasping the enormity of this massive story.
    What do you think of the Labour-Uncut link I posted below?

    Carlotta, no one gives a t*ss !
    It was a response to questions from both Carola & BaJ......so If you 'don't give a toss' why bother responding? Or do you 'give a toss' and pray that it goes away?

    To be very honest, I do not even know the full details of what "went on" in Falkirk. The summary seems to be that Unite wanted their candidate to win. I have been in the Labour Party for over 30 years. Is that really news ? You might be surprised to know that the Trade Unions gave birth to the Labour Party. Unions are part of the Labour family. My own preference is for one member , one vote and it will come sooner rather than later.

    It would matter if I had read about 10 other constituencies but so far even with you and Fitalass working overtime, I have not heard a second name being mentioned. So, like the rest of the country, for me, so far, it's a big yawn.

    In the meantime, why don't you work to get Anan Soubry a winnable seat ? She deserves to become your leader.
    That would involve him/her concentrating on their own party, rather than the minutiae of Labour selection processes, with which s/he is completely obsessed.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2013
    surbiton said:

    MikeK said:

    Are you feeling squeezed? I expect many Londoners feel so:

    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel
    Population density: Germany 583 per square mile, France 301, Romania 219, Poland 320, Italy 512, Spain 240, Lithuania 141.....England 1,054!

    London is a city. The other names are countries. In that case, Singapore , Hong Kong ?
    Go to Kensington High Street on any day and at any time between 10am and 6 pm. You will suffocate, Surbiton. And it's the same for many of our main streets in London. I've never seen such dense crowds milling around in all my nearly 80 years.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Charles said:

    Bobajob said:

    Carola said:

    Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?

    This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?

    Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/

    This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
    So he failed to tackle "machine politics". Well now we know.
    It says a lot about his character: hypocrisy and untrustworthiness.

    Will is shift many votes: no.

    Should it influence thoughtful people's views on whether EdM is a suitable person to be PM: absolutely.
    What has he done wrong exactly?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    BBC Politics had two Labour supporting Guardian hacks in the comment seat this Sunday. Nicholas Watt and Zoe Williams. Plus one from the FT. Hardly balance!

    Are you getting paranoid ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Bobajob said:

    Charles said:

    Bobajob said:

    Carola said:

    Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?

    This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?

    Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/

    This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
    So he failed to tackle "machine politics". Well now we know.
    It says a lot about his character: hypocrisy and untrustworthiness.

    Will is shift many votes: no.

    Should it influence thoughtful people's views on whether EdM is a suitable person to be PM: absolutely.
    What has he done wrong exactly?
    He should have parachuted into Falkirk, kill all the Unite people and then jump on a speeding boat and escape into the North Sea !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeK said:

    surbiton said:

    MikeK said:

    Are you feeling squeezed? I expect many Londoners feel so:

    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel
    Population density: Germany 583 per square mile, France 301, Romania 219, Poland 320, Italy 512, Spain 240, Lithuania 141.....England 1,054!

    London is a city. The other names are countries. In that case, Singapore , Hong Kong ?
    Go to Kensington High Street on any day and at any time between 10am and 6 pm. You will suffocate, Surbiton. And it's the same for many of our main streets in London. I've never seen such dense crowds milling around in all my nearly 80 years.
    They are shoppers. Most probably tourists with ill-gotten wealth giving this economy a boost !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I specifically did my projection on Leics (the county) rather than Leicester (the city). The county is larger in population and has far fewer ethnic communities than the city. I assumed no Roma at all in this population.

    When taken as a whole, Leicester and Leicestershires population is not very out of line with national figures in terms of minorities, income and age spectrum. It is middle England figuritively as well as literally.

    On what evidence do you say the 200 000 figure for Roma is innacurate? What is your estimate? And why do you pooh pooh these figures, if immigration is a universal good?






    Projecting immigration stats from Leicester across the country, that's delicious.
    That makes Aberdeen 45% non white and Belfasts Hindu population the most unreported minority in the history of these islands.

This discussion has been closed.