Imagine if we have a 2nd referendum. Imagine if Leavers decide (entirely understandably and utterly correctly) to boycott it, as being meaningless.
Imagine it gets less than 60% turnout. Imagine. IMAGINE.
We will become Catalunya overnight. We will become the failed state of Remainer dreams, but in a wrong way. There will be extreme violence. This is the road that leads to nightmare
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
If my vote counts for nothing, perhaps my punch in your fat, smug, pig-ugly face will persuade you? If not a punch, perhaps a bomb?
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I voted Remain last time, I would vote Leave next time as long as it not for a Corbyn Deal in which case I would boycott it
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
80% of this "wave" will be Wetherspoons drunkards with sky-high cholesterol. Probably even sweep a floor without running out of puff.
I will personally lead the 20%. I’ll winnow out the fatsos. We will come for you first. Nimble and lethal.
If Parliament force through EUref2 after forcing through the extension better for Boris to take the Tories into opposition to lead the Leave campaign.
Then it is win win for the Tories, if Leave win the referendum anyway Boris and Cummings triumph again, if Remain narrowly win Boris can present himself as an English Alex Salmond and lead the Leaver backlash at the next general election
So Boris is going to lead the campaign for Corbyn’s deal?
If it is a farcical Corbyn Deal v Remain vote, Boris and Farage will agree a pact to boycott the poll and tell their supporters to save their anger for the next general election
By putting Corbyn into Number 10, Boris will already have conceded that the referendum will be Corbyn’s Deal v Remain.
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
If my vote counts for nothing, perhaps my punch in your fat, smug, pig-ugly face will persuade you? If not a punch, perhaps a bomb?
You stupid, stupid people.
2016: Let’s fund our NHS instead 2019: perhaps a bomb
Time for you to leave this forum permanently, I think. You've crossed a line to advocating terrorism. There's no excuse for that.
Interesting that as soon as the thieves and crooks in Parliament are shut out we start making some progress on a possible new deal with the DUP starting to move their red lines...
You mean to the EU proposal of March 2018, that May said no UK Prime Minister could agree to? So negotiated a whole UK backstop?
Her jackets are OK I think, but it's her earrings that misfire sometimes!
Streets ahead of that sack of spuds of a PM though. Jezza is now quite a snappy dresser.
I wouldn’t go that far.
Politicians are rarely well dressed, but Jezza does a nice line in suits now. Perhaps he has a personal shopper, but at least he listens to advice. His suits are well cut and fit well. It helps being slim.
He is definitely under the sartorial thumb of an aide. And, whoever she is (I assume it’s a she, it might not be!) she has done a transformative job.
I get the impression he's just one of those males who never gave it a moments thought. When DC told him to smarten up, he was genuinely confused. Am I scruffy? Then he got someone in. And when he saw the results, he thought yes! Having some of that.
Sartorial extremes are common on the left, McDonnell has always dressed well for example.
To most people it doesn't matter much, but to the few who care it matters a good deal. It is more difficult for women, because of the range of choices and expectation. A well fitted navy blue suit, white shirt and red tie, a beard trim and the jobs a good un.
Indeed. See also Derek Hatton. Sits in the Popular Stand at Goodison not far from me. Immaculately turned out always.
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
80% of this "wave" will be Wetherspoons drunkards with sky-high cholesterol. Probably even sweep a floor without running out of puff.
I will personally lead the 20%. I’ll winnow out the fatsos. We will come for you first. Nimble and lethal.
If Parliament force through EUref2 after forcing through the extension better for Boris to take the Tories into opposition to lead the Leave campaign.
Then it is win win for the Tories, if Leave win the referendum anyway Boris and Cummings triumph again, if Remain narrowly win Boris can present himself as an English Alex Salmond and lead the Leaver backlash at the next general election
So Boris is going to lead the campaign for Corbyn’s deal?
If it is a farcical Corbyn Deal v Remain vote, Boris and Farage will agree a pact to boycott the poll and tell their supporters to save their anger for the next general election
By putting Corbyn into Number 10, Boris will already have conceded that the referendum will be Corbyn’s Deal v Remain.
Boris won't put Corbyn into Number 10, diehard Remainers will
People opposing a deal might have overplayed their hand, big time.
For all the never-ending sound and fury this could be the most important development since 29th March.
I won't count any chickens until they're hatched but if this deal is agreed it would be a rational compromise.
My issue with the backstop has always been principled about democracy. If there is (ongoing not one off) NI consent to the backstop then that is acceptable.
If Parliament force through EUref2 after forcing through the extension better for Boris to take the Tories into opposition to lead the Leave campaign.
Then it is win win for the Tories, if Leave win the referendum anyway Boris and Cummings triumph again, if Remain narrowly win Boris can present himself as an English Alex Salmond and lead the Leaver backlash at the next general election
So Boris is going to lead the campaign for Corbyn’s deal?
If it is a farcical Corbyn Deal v Remain vote, Boris and Farage will agree a pact to boycott the poll and tell their supporters to save their anger for the next general election
By putting Corbyn into Number 10, Boris will already have conceded that the referendum will be Corbyn’s Deal v Remain.
Boris won't put Corbyn into Number 10, diehard Remainers will
You said “better for Boris to take the Tories into opposition”, so in your scenario he vacated Downing Street willingly.
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
If my vote counts for nothing, perhaps my punch in your fat, smug, pig-ugly face will persuade you? If not a punch, perhaps a bomb?
You stupid, stupid people.
2016: Let’s fund our NHS instead 2019: perhaps a bomb
Time for you to leave this forum permanently, I think. You've crossed a line to advocating terrorism. There's no excuse for that.
To be fair I don't think Sean was advocating terrorism just pointing out what could happen if the anger gets out of control.
I think violence is unlikely (at least initially) but I could easily see The Brexit Party sweeping away the Tories and a lot of Labour seats in any subsequent election after Brexit is cancelled.
The most concerning issue is probably what comes after the Brexit Party because with the Tories gone forever and the Brexit Party's/Farage's only function to deliver Brexit I could see it morphing into a nasty, far right English nationalist Party eventually - but it would also be a party of government...
That's how you might then get to violence. But thats probably 20+ years in the future.
If Parliament force through EUref2 after forcing through the extension better for Boris to take the Tories into opposition to lead the Leave campaign.
Then it is win win for the Tories, if Leave win the referendum anyway Boris and Cummings triumph again, if Remain narrowly win Boris can present himself as an English Alex Salmond and lead the Leaver backlash at the next general election
So Boris is going to lead the campaign for Corbyn’s deal?
If it is a farcical Corbyn Deal v Remain vote, Boris and Farage will agree a pact to boycott the poll and tell their supporters to save their anger for the next general election
By putting Corbyn into Number 10, Boris will already have conceded that the referendum will be Corbyn’s Deal v Remain.
Boris won't put Corbyn into Number 10, diehard Remainers will
You said “better for Boris to take the Tories into opposition”, so in your scenario he vacated Downing Street willingly.
He would vacate it so as not to be forced to extend and betray Brexit
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
If my vote counts for nothing, perhaps my punch in your fat, smug, pig-ugly face will persuade you? If not a punch, perhaps a bomb?
You stupid, stupid people.
2016: Let’s fund our NHS instead 2019: perhaps a bomb
Time for you to leave this forum permanently, I think. You've crossed a line to advocating terrorism. There's no excuse for that.
To be fair I don't think Sean was advocating terrorism just pointing out what could happen if the anger gets out of control.
I think violence is unlikely (at least initially) but I could easily see The Brexit Party sweeping away the Tories and a lot of Labour seats in any subsequent election after Brexit is cancelled.
The most concerning issue is probably what comes after the Brexit Party because with the Tories and the Brexit Party's only function to deliver Brexit I could see it morphing into a nasty, right English nationalist Party eventually.
That's how you might then get to violence. But thats probably 20+ years in the future.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Interesting that as soon as the thieves and crooks in Parliament are shut out we start making some progress on a possible new deal with the DUP starting to move their red lines...
You mean to the EU proposal of March 2018, that May said no UK Prime Minister could agree to? So negotiated a whole UK backstop?
May said she couldn't agree to a lot of things before promptly agreeing to them. Also when suggested previously there was no right for NI consent.
If there is a right for NI consent then it's a better deal than May's Deal.
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I voted Remain last time, I would vote Leave next time as long as it not for a Corbyn Deal in which case I would boycott it
But you don't know yet whether the Corbyn deal would be ok! If it is a repackaged WA, which you are ok with, why would you boycott that?
People opposing a deal might have overplayed their hand, big time.
For all the never-ending sound and fury this could be the most important development since 29th March.
I won't count any chickens until they're hatched but if this deal is agreed it would be a rational compromise.
My issue with the backstop has always been principled about democracy. If there is (ongoing not one off) NI consent to the backstop then that is acceptable.
Good grief! Common sense breaking out. Or maybe not...
People opposing a deal might have overplayed their hand, big time.
For all the never-ending sound and fury this could be the most important development since 29th March.
I won't count any chickens until they're hatched but if this deal is agreed it would be a rational compromise.
My issue with the backstop has always been principled about democracy. If there is (ongoing not one off) NI consent to the backstop then that is acceptable.
Lets hope, even at this late hour, the madness can stop and everyone can step back from the brink.
Given the way things have gone over the past three years I'm not confident.
To be fair I don't think Sean was advocating terrorism just pointing out what could happen if the anger gets out of control.
He followed it up with "We will come for you first." I'm fairly sure this has now stepped into the arena of criminal conduct.
I am an ex-male model, busily transitioning in Richmond. I live near the green. Tell me the police station where I must hand myself in, for stating the truth. Ta.
People opposing a deal might have overplayed their hand, big time.
For all the never-ending sound and fury this could be the most important development since 29th March.
I won't count any chickens until they're hatched but if this deal is agreed it would be a rational compromise.
My issue with the backstop has always been principled about democracy. If there is (ongoing not one off) NI consent to the backstop then that is acceptable.
Good grief! Common sense breaking out. Or maybe not...
I've always wanted a deal despite regularly getting called a no dealer here (and I would have been a Spartan with May's Deal).
People opposing a deal might have overplayed their hand, big time.
For all the never-ending sound and fury this could be the most important development since 29th March.
I won't count any chickens until they're hatched but if this deal is agreed it would be a rational compromise.
My issue with the backstop has always been principled about democracy. If there is (ongoing not one off) NI consent to the backstop then that is acceptable.
Good grief! Common sense breaking out. Or maybe not...
I've always wanted a deal despite regularly getting called a no dealer here (and I would have been a Spartan with May's Deal).
A deal would suit me fine too. Although I see no reason why leaving the EU would solve any of the long term problems revealed by the Brexit vote.
Until a Tory majority, albeit up to 50 Labour MPs rumoured to be ready to vote for a Boris Deal now according to Caroline Flint, more than cancelling out the DUP rejecting it
To be fair I don't think Sean was advocating terrorism just pointing out what could happen if the anger gets out of control.
He followed it up with "We will come for you first." I'm fairly sure this has now stepped into the arena of criminal conduct.
I am an ex-male model, busily transitioning in Richmond. I live near the green. Tell me the police station where I must hand myself in, for stating the truth. Ta.
To be fair I don't think Sean was advocating terrorism just pointing out what could happen if the anger gets out of control.
He followed it up with "We will come for you first." I'm fairly sure this has now stepped into the arena of criminal conduct.
I am an ex-male model, busily transitioning in Richmond. I live near the green. Tell me the police station where I must hand myself in, for stating the truth. Ta.
"Good morning, welcome to Paddington Green. Can I help you?" "I need to report the truth! THE TRUTH, I TELL YOU! Now bring me some opium and Malmsey wine, that I may quench my ennui!" "Um, certainly. And may I have your name please?" "I go by many names: how else may I capture my cyclonic essence? No mere syllables may compass my whole!" "Oooo-kayyy. And what would you like to state?" "Remainers are traitors! How dare they sully the air of freeborn English yeomen!" "Riight...okay, sign here. No, on the paper! Oh god, that's urine isn't it? Look, go home, sleep it off." "Bleeurgh!" [voms ballistically]
Until a Tory majority, albeit up to 50 Labour MPs rumoured to be ready to vote for a Boris Deal now according to Caroline Flint, more than cancelling out the DUP rejecting it
I click the link and find your summary is ludicrous. What's the point in reading the piece and posting the link, but then writing a bogus summary?
What you're calling "a Boris deal" isn't a deal that Boris has shown any sign of negotiating, it's an old abandoned discussion with TMay involving recreating environmental and labour rights and free votes on a customs union and a second referendum. Boris's people reject it right there in the article... Obviously if you do this you don't just lose the DUP, you also lose a bunch of Tories from the other end...
To be fair I don't think Sean was advocating terrorism just pointing out what could happen if the anger gets out of control.
He followed it up with "We will come for you first." I'm fairly sure this has now stepped into the arena of criminal conduct.
I am an ex-male model, busily transitioning in Richmond. I live near the green. Tell me the police station where I must hand myself in, for stating the truth. Ta.
Trust a primadonna to come back as another primadonna.
Do the likes of Letwin not realise the consequences of holding a pre-election pre-Brexit second referendum, with rules presumably heavily loaded towards Remain?
It’s trivial to imagine how 10-12 million voters would for the rest of their lives vote for The Brexit Party as a point of principle. It almost guarantees that politics in the UK moves towards total bifurcation, with more extreme agendas being pushed well beyond the esoteric issue of EU membership.
Do the likes of Letwin not realise the consequences of holding a pre-election pre-Brexit second referendum, with rules presumably heavily loaded towards Remain?
It’s trivial to imagine how 10-12 million voters would for the rest of their lives vote for The Brexit Party as a point of principle. It almost guarantees that politics in the UK moves towards total bifurcation, with more extreme agendas being pushed well beyond the esoteric issue of EU membership.
""We don't see family now," says one woman in her 50s, who lives in Norfolk. "We didn't see them that often and now I have no desire to see them ever again."
The woman, a Remain supporter who is French but married to a Briton, wants to remain anonymous. She tells how she has felt "unable to talk" to some friends and family members, after hearing their views on Brexit.
She hasn't spoken to some friends - despite having known them for decades. "I know if I speak to them I would go into such an argument. It makes me very, very sad.""
Do the likes of Letwin not realise the consequences of holding a pre-election pre-Brexit second referendum, with rules presumably heavily loaded towards Remain?
It’s trivial to imagine how 10-12 million voters would for the rest of their lives vote for The Brexit Party as a point of principle. It almost guarantees that politics in the UK moves towards total bifurcation, with more extreme agendas being pushed well beyond the esoteric issue of EU membership.
The rest of their lives....
Is there some very clever and smug undertone I am missing here?
""We don't see family now," says one woman in her 50s, who lives in Norfolk. "We didn't see them that often and now I have no desire to see them ever again."
The woman, a Remain supporter who is French but married to a Briton, wants to remain anonymous. She tells how she has felt "unable to talk" to some friends and family members, after hearing their views on Brexit.
She hasn't spoken to some friends - despite having known them for decades. "I know if I speak to them I would go into such an argument. It makes me very, very sad.""
On topic, I think there are the numbers for a rejigged PD passed subject to a referendum. But Boris can't do it, firstly because the opposition will tank it to avoid giving him a victory, and secondly because nobody trusts him. And nobody except the PM can do it, because the rest of the EU can't negotiate with a general consensus of parliamentary opinion.
So unless the Conservative Party get rid of Boris, MPs will need an alternative government to rejig the PD and give them something to vote on. It doesn't really matter who leads it.
""We don't see family now," says one woman in her 50s, who lives in Norfolk. "We didn't see them that often and now I have no desire to see them ever again."
The woman, a Remain supporter who is French but married to a Briton, wants to remain anonymous. She tells how she has felt "unable to talk" to some friends and family members, after hearing their views on Brexit.
She hasn't spoken to some friends - despite having known them for decades. "I know if I speak to them I would go into such an argument. It makes me very, very sad.""
I think there’s also research which says Remain supporters are less likely to encounter Leave supporters than vice versa - though it would appear some of them are self selecting.
Prediction: if there is a second vote, “Oliver”, it will either be boycotted by Leavers, or it will be lost to Leavers, and we will exit the E.U. in a wave of nationalist anger so wild it will sweep all before it. Remainers have no idea. They are delusional.
I'm not worried. The ones without walking sticks couldn't afford the bus fare from Hull.
You know nothing. We have VAST fleets of mobility scooters under our command.
You will never walk safely on the streets again.....
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
""We don't see family now," says one woman in her 50s, who lives in Norfolk. "We didn't see them that often and now I have no desire to see them ever again."
The woman, a Remain supporter who is French but married to a Briton, wants to remain anonymous. She tells how she has felt "unable to talk" to some friends and family members, after hearing their views on Brexit.
She hasn't spoken to some friends - despite having known them for decades. "I know if I speak to them I would go into such an argument. It makes me very, very sad.""
There will be violence. It will not consist of anything glamorous like storming the London equivalent of the Bastille (the Tower?) but of a serious increase in small scale racist assaults against EU immigrants (and probably against non EU immigrants too, racists not being terribly discriminating about who they discriminate against).
America's Democrat debate overnight has barely troubled Oddschecker. Blue in spots for Warren and Biden, and amongst the no-hopers for Amy Klobuchar and one-time wunderkind Beta O'Rourke. Other than that, it looks like nothing much happened. The first primary is still five months off.
There's a lot of it about, as doctors say, although the only senior politician who seems much exercised by London's murders is Donald Trump. The criminal justice system is badly broken (as well as underfunded after a decade of Tory cuts which are now to be reversed by Tory investment under Boris). The NHS (sorry, it is now called "our" NHS) is doing its bit to bring down the murder rate by saving more stab victims: death rates in the most critical patients have halved in 10 years according to this sombre portrait of life as a trauma surgeon: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48365415
America's Democrat debate overnight has barely troubled Oddschecker. Blue in spots for Warren and Biden, and amongst the no-hopers for Amy Klobuchar and one-time wunderkind Beta O'Rourke. Other than that, it looks like nothing much happened. The first primary is still five months off.
Sounded sliggtly negative for Biden but tbh you price that in with him
As for being on topic, parliament does finally seem to be getting close to agreement, albeit they are not there yet. Playing for time until opinion changed has very much worked, but some of the people clamouring for a GE seem to have woken up to the fact that the Tories might actually win it even if offering no deal, or that a remain majority might split the vote inefficiently. Therefore, a referndum is less risky since the worst case scenario is a deal, if they even enact that result, and of course are confident of remain winning in any case.
Which I think it would - enough people hate a deal of any kind, or have changed their mind, or would stay home in disgust, to see remain win.
Any second referendum will be won on the backs of democratic Remainers, not Leavers.
How the new Leave campaign conducts itself will be crucial. If it's "tell them again" or "honour the vote" they could win fairly clearly.
If Farage, Banks, Francois and others all shout betrayal from the rooftops, say staying would be better than this, and argue for abstention or more direct action, it will be over before it starts.
'Honour the vote' does not work, since if remain do win they can honour that vote. 'Tell them again' gets the angry juices flowing to inspire people to turn out, although anecdotally I know some who just won't bother - they told them once and it did not work, so what would be the point?
Leave won in 2016 because thousands of people who hadn't voted in years (or sometimes ever) saw their one chance to be listened to and change a system that doesn't work for them. They were ignored and lied to, why on earth would they bother voting again? A remainer parliament didn't accept the first leave vote, so why would you expect them to respect a second one? Taking part would merely legitimise the cancellation of the 2016 vote which is what holding another referendum without implementing the result of the first does.
Denying a second referendum legitimacy and ensuring a remain total significantly below the 17.4m for leave is probably the only way of keeping the Brexit cause alive.
The clear democratic instruction from the last general election was for compromise. No one party won a majority. This confirmed the narrow vote of the referendum. An extreme form of Brexit such as leaving with no deal is just as much of an affront to democracy as remaining.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Drawing back from the lurid ("murder MPs"), this is interesting - we already have lawbreaking / criminality in our current politics, senior politicians defending it, and judges soft-pedalling the perpetrators.
1 - It is fundamental to eg Extinction Rebellion that their personal opinions are so important that they are above the law to commit eg aggravated trespass. I can see an argument for that, but the ER types are as ignorant as the occupidiots were before them.
This weekend there are plans to disrupt flights for 10s of thousands of people.
And that is leaving aside previous tactics by eg HACAN.
2 - The same point applies to intimidatory invasions of farms, which have been quite numerous afaik.
3 - It is no secret that senior Labour figure McDonnell is quite happy with street violence, celebrated the wrecking of the building containing the Charity Commission and Tory HQ, and has explicitly refused to withdraw his "lynch the bitch" rhetoric about a fellow MP.
5 - "Leverage" tactics by Unite the Union sending demonstrators to managers' homes. See also I guess the JRM demonstrations.
6 - Quite recently we have seen a lauding of the violent tactics of suffragettes - eg burning down people's houses and community buildings, window smashing and attempted violence against politicians - throwing axes at MPs and burning down theatres during performances. There are those today who defend that.
And I have not even mentioned into fracking or anti-GM etc.
These 'civil disobedience' types are mainly ardent remainers. I cannot see how they could climb on a High Horse.
We are in 'undermining democracy' territory, and certainly I would personally happily participate in a demonstration outside his constituency home to let a shit like Bercow know how he is viewed. Whether I would go beyond that, I have not considered.
I just laid Hillary Clinton at 24 for the Democrat nomination. Remarkable.
The fact that you are able to do that throws a massive question mark over the concept that the betting markets have any link or insight to the probability of political outcomes.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
Oliver Letwin leading the charge to block an election and force another referendum.
It’s trivial to imagine how 10-12 million voters would for the rest of their lives vote for The Brexit Party as a point of principle.?
But that's around a quarter of the UK's 47 million registered voters. And, since Peterborough, TBP's not managed over 10% in any election it's stood in - and its core voters are dying every hour of every day. On paper, the entire majority Leave won 3.25 years ago is now dead.
We may have 10 million miserable Leavers sulking over our eventual Brexit compromise for the decade or so they're still on this earth. And they probably won't vote Tory.
But does anyone really care? The Tory party's entirely the cause of its own misfortunes. It could solve them at a few strokes: expel the Johnsonites (as well as Osborne and the other plutophiles) prioritise voters' views rather than the donors' and Kippers' who've taken over local associations, and make its candidates physically canvass.
Anyway: why should we worry about 10 million grumbling - but dying - Leavers when the Leave cabal are perfectly relaxed about destroying the economy for us other 55 million? And that 55 million is growing daily.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
You are assuming Labour will never accept any deal that might be in the National interest as it might benefit Boris ?
Reading the previous thread, I am somewhat disturbed to discover that I have spent the last 25 years living in a Lib Dem sexual fantasy. Does this mean that I am Winning Here?
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Drawing back from the lurid ("murder MPs"), this is interesting - we already have lawbreaking / criminality in our current politics, senior politicians defending it, and judges soft-pedalling the perpetrators.
1 - It is fundamental to eg Extinction Rebellion that their personal opinions are so important that they are above the law to commit eg aggravated trespass. I can see an argument for that, but the ER types are as ignorant as the occupidiots were before them.
This weekend there are plans to disrupt flights for 10s of thousands of people.
And that is leaving aside previous tactics by eg HACAN.
2 - The same point applies to intimidatory invasions of farms, which have been quite numerous afaik.
3 - It is no secret that senior Labour figure McDonnell is quite happy with street violence, celebrated the wrecking of the building containing the Charity Commission and Tory HQ, and has explicitly refused to withdraw his "lynch the bitch" rhetoric about a fellow MP.
5 - "Leverage" tactics by Unite the Union sending demonstrators to managers' homes. See also I guess the JRM demonstrations.
6 - Quite recently we have seen a lauding of the violent tactics of suffragettes - eg burning down people's houses and community buildings, window smashing and attempted violence against politicians - throwing axes at MPs and burning down theatres during performances. There are those today who defend that.
And I have not even mentioned into fracking or anti-GM etc.
These 'civil disobedience' types are mainly ardent remainers. I cannot see how they could climb on a High Horse.
We are in 'undermining democracy' territory, and certainly I would personally happily participate in a demonstration outside his constituency home to let a shit like Bercow know how he is viewed. Whether I would go beyond that, I have not considered.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
That seems to be what's left in the Leavers ambitions, no more 'sunlit uplands' no more 'easiest deal ever', no more 'no downside', not even 'project fear' since Yellowhammer. They are determined to leave because it would spite Remainers.
The type of young urban folk who supported Corbyn will find the Greens very attractive in a new GE, particularly since they’ll very much believe this is an “emergency”. Just look at how quickly the Greens have prospered in Germany.
I’d be looking less at % vote shares the Greens got in GE2017 and more the types of seats where the demographics suggest they’d really appeal. Seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Hove, and Norwich South etc and possibly others, so watch the seat betting odds for value, carefully.
Northern Ireland backstop moves are a glass one quarter full / three quarters empty thing. The EU wants to encourage the new UK government, who for the first time recognise Northern Ireland is a Brexit issue. We're nowhere near a solution.
Which brings me to another point. The Conservatives have no workable Brexit policy. Brexit is a process, not a single transformative state that you can do or die on. The starting point is something close to May's Deal. To move forward, Johnson will have to face down the ERG and the Brexit Party. Politically he's binding himself in.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
That seems to be what's left in the Leavers ambitions, no more 'sunlit uplands' no more 'easiest deal ever', no more 'no downside', not even 'project fear' since Yellowhammer. They are determined to leave because it would spite Remainers.
I feel that was at least part of Trump's appeal in America.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
That seems to be what's left in the Leavers ambitions, no more 'sunlit uplands' no more 'easiest deal ever', no more 'no downside', not even 'project fear' since Yellowhammer. They are determined to leave because it would spite Remainers.
What you have to understand is that for affluent reactionaries this has always been about indulging their prejudices. There is no damage they would not be prepared for others to suffer so long as they can wallow in their spite and hate.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
If it’s true that just merely leaving the EU (for real) would satisfy most Leavers then there’s an easy option to make it happen: vote for the Deal on the table.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop has a majority in the Commons though as the Brady amendment showed, the DUP would vote for it and probably enough Labour and Independent MPs like Flint and Snell and Field and Lloyd and Austin to cancel out ERG diehards like Redwood, Francois and Baker who never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and will never vote for it regardless of form
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop has a majority in the Commons though as the Brady amendment showed, the DUP would vote for it and probably enough Labour and Independent MPs like Flint and Snell and Field and Lloyd and Austin to cancel out ERG diehards like Redwood, Francois and Baker who never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and will never vote for it regardless of form
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop doesn’t exist mate. How many times?
@MattW said "- It is fundamental to eg Extinction Rebellion that their personal opinions are so important that they are above the law to commit eg aggravated trespass."
I think you do not understand the concept of civil disobedience. The activists do not think they are above the law, but they do consider breaking the law a legitimate form of protest, including arrest and trials.
Indeed in the spring XR protest part of the plan was to get arrested and thereby overwhelm the system. They were fairly effective at that, and will be more skilled in the October protests.
I have had some civil disobedience training in conjunction with anti-militarist protests, it is very helpful to know when to move, when not to, and what your rights are if arrested.
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop has a majority in the Commons though as the Brady amendment showed, the DUP would vote for it and probably enough Labour and Independent MPs like Flint and Snell and Field and Lloyd and Austin to cancel out ERG diehards like Redwood, Francois and Baker who never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and will never vote for it regardless of form
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop doesn’t exist mate. How many times?
I am not Sean. I AM predicting violence. Something wicked this way comes.
Unfortunately there's no possible outcome to this that doesn't involve a minority of leave enthusiasts feeling betrayed and trying to murder MPs again. Nationalism is a disease.
Oh, I don't know. No Deal would mean it was Remainers murdering MPs this time.....
This is the thing though, No Deal won't satisfy the leave enthusiasts, because at some point someone will make some kind of deal with the rest of the EU, and *that* deal will be a betrayal.
But before that, you would have a deal that meant we have officially left the European Union. And THAT deal will be a betrayal of all the hope that Remainers have built up after three years of piling up the barricades.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
I would suggest you’re wrong, given the ERG voted May’s deal down 3 times and are already saying removing the backstop isn’t enough.
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop has a majority in the Commons though as the Brady amendment showed, the DUP would vote for it and probably enough Labour and Independent MPs like Flint and Snell and Field and Lloyd and Austin to cancel out ERG diehards like Redwood, Francois and Baker who never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and will never vote for it regardless of form
The Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop doesn’t exist mate. How many times?
That's always been EU position - find an alternative and we can drop the backstop. One is effectively NI only backstop, which EU favoured but expanded to all UK at our request and the above proposals look like a very slightly tweaked version of that.
If...Leave win the referendum anyway Boris and Cummings triumph again, if Remain narrowly win Boris can present himself as an English Alex Salmond and lead the Leaver backlash at the next general election
Johnson lead a backlash?
If there's one thing we've learned from the past 50 days of chaos, it's that Johnson was away somewhere shagging when God was handing out leadership skills. The only politician in my lifetime worse than Mrs May at leadership.
Something in whatever they serve at Tory association meetings?
"My own view is that another referendum before we’ve left will not resolve things, whatever the result, but that won’t stop Parliament ensuring the Vote Leave commitment to Leave with a deal is honoured or we Remain."
No course of action at this point will resolve things. I fear we will be arguing about our relationship with the EU for the rest of our lives. At least a referendum will move us on to agree the WA or revoke.
Also remember the WA leads on to another 2 year ticking clock to another No deal cliff edge. Ground Hog Day.
Comments
2019: perhaps a bomb
Time for you to leave this forum permanently, I think. You've crossed a line to advocating terrorism. There's no excuse for that.
So much for the vast progressive liberal Scottish consensus opposing those horrible backwards English!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/41-of-scots-want-to-bring-back-death-penalty-tfs7ws7qr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0W1YcoKz-iwbLIFfMcATCeu8qYeq4RX87xU1OAANd5IM4a-aq6S7319mc#Echobox=1568273134
My issue with the backstop has always been principled about democracy. If there is (ongoing not one off) NI consent to the backstop then that is acceptable.
I think violence is unlikely (at least initially) but I could easily see The Brexit Party sweeping away the Tories and a lot of Labour seats in any subsequent election after Brexit is cancelled.
The most concerning issue is probably what comes after the Brexit Party because with the Tories gone forever and the Brexit Party's/Farage's only function to deliver Brexit I could see it morphing into a nasty, far right English nationalist Party eventually - but it would also be a party of government...
That's how you might then get to violence. But thats probably 20+ years in the future.
If there is a right for NI consent then it's a better deal than May's Deal.
I'm fairly sure this has now stepped into the arena of criminal conduct.
Given the way things have gone over the past three years I'm not confident.
https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1172279119968657413?s=21
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-no-deal-labour-boris-johnson-caroline-flint-eu-a9099156.html
"I need to report the truth! THE TRUTH, I TELL YOU! Now bring me some opium and Malmsey wine, that I may quench my ennui!"
"Um, certainly. And may I have your name please?"
"I go by many names: how else may I capture my cyclonic essence? No mere syllables may compass my whole!"
"Oooo-kayyy. And what would you like to state?"
"Remainers are traitors! How dare they sully the air of freeborn English yeomen!"
"Riight...okay, sign here. No, on the paper! Oh god, that's urine isn't it? Look, go home, sleep it off."
"Bleeurgh!" [voms ballistically]
Pause
"Same again next week?"
"OK..."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0006y2p/episodes/guide
I click the link and find your summary is ludicrous. What's the point in reading the piece and posting the link, but then writing a bogus summary?
What you're calling "a Boris deal" isn't a deal that Boris has shown any sign of negotiating, it's an old abandoned discussion with TMay involving recreating environmental and labour rights and free votes on a customs union and a second referendum. Boris's people reject it right there in the article... Obviously if you do this you don't just lose the DUP, you also lose a bunch of Tories from the other end...
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1172262586013880342?s=20
It’s trivial to imagine how 10-12 million voters would for the rest of their lives vote for The Brexit Party as a point of principle. It almost guarantees that politics in the UK moves towards total bifurcation, with more extreme agendas being pushed well beyond the esoteric issue of EU membership.
The woman, a Remain supporter who is French but married to a Briton, wants to remain anonymous. She tells how she has felt "unable to talk" to some friends and family members, after hearing their views on Brexit.
She hasn't spoken to some friends - despite having known them for decades. "I know if I speak to them I would go into such an argument. It makes me very, very sad.""
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49648119
What a loser.
So unless the Conservative Party get rid of Boris, MPs will need an alternative government to rejig the PD and give them something to vote on. It doesn't really matter who leads it.
You will never walk safely on the streets again.....
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/camden-stabbing-male-knifed-to-death-and-another-injured-in-double-stabbing-on-busy-high-street-a4235616.html
https://twitter.com/oliver_wright/status/1086231607860740096?s=21
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48365415
They all change after they read the confidential reports. First May and now Johnson.
1 - It is fundamental to eg Extinction Rebellion that their personal opinions are so important that they are above the law to commit eg aggravated trespass. I can see an argument for that, but the ER types are as ignorant as the occupidiots were before them.
They are supported by eg Caroline Lucas
https://twitter.com/carolinelucas/status/1117812127966932994
This weekend there are plans to disrupt flights for 10s of thousands of people.
And that is leaving aside previous tactics by eg HACAN.
2 - The same point applies to intimidatory invasions of farms, which have been quite numerous afaik.
3 - It is no secret that senior Labour figure McDonnell is quite happy with street violence, celebrated the wrecking of the building containing the Charity Commission and Tory HQ, and has explicitly refused to withdraw his "lynch the bitch" rhetoric about a fellow MP.
4 - The Judiciary have been cotton-batting - conditional discharges etc.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/extinction-rebellion-court-m32-protest-3309888
5 - "Leverage" tactics by Unite the Union sending demonstrators to managers' homes. See also I guess the JRM demonstrations.
6 - Quite recently we have seen a lauding of the violent tactics of suffragettes - eg burning down people's houses and community buildings, window smashing and attempted violence against politicians - throwing axes at MPs and burning down theatres during performances. There are those today who defend that.
And I have not even mentioned into fracking or anti-GM etc.
These 'civil disobedience' types are mainly ardent remainers. I cannot see how they could climb on a High Horse.
We are in 'undermining democracy' territory, and certainly I would personally happily participate in a demonstration outside his constituency home to let a shit like Bercow know how he is viewed. Whether I would go beyond that, I have not considered.
I would suggest swimming lengths in an ocean of Remainer tears will be enough to satisfy most Leavers.
Was this the day that Remain died ?
You are probably correct.
They are determined to leave because it would spite Remainers.
The type of young urban folk who supported Corbyn will find the Greens very attractive in a new GE, particularly since they’ll very much believe this is an “emergency”. Just look at how quickly the Greens have prospered in Germany.
I’d be looking less at % vote shares the Greens got in GE2017 and more the types of seats where the demographics suggest they’d really appeal. Seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Hove, and Norwich South etc and possibly others, so watch the seat betting odds for value, carefully.
Which brings me to another point. The Conservatives have no workable Brexit policy. Brexit is a process, not a single transformative state that you can do or die on. The starting point is something close to May's Deal. To move forward, Johnson will have to face down the ERG and the Brexit Party. Politically he's binding himself in.
The rest was just window-dressing.
You can lay Andrew Yang at 18 too.
Alas, I’m out of disposable cash to lock up.
NEW THREAD
I think you do not understand the concept of civil disobedience. The activists do not think they are above the law, but they do consider breaking the law a legitimate form of protest, including arrest and trials.
Indeed in the spring XR protest part of the plan was to get arrested and thereby overwhelm the system. They were fairly effective at that, and will be more skilled in the October protests.
I have had some civil disobedience training in conjunction with anti-militarist protests, it is very helpful to know when to move, when not to, and what your rights are if arrested.
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1172135624163438594?s=20
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1172135626071781376?s=20
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1172135627648917504?s=20
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1172135629175394306?s=20
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1172135630765273089?s=20
What the EU wouldn't do is believe in unicorns.
No course of action at this point will resolve things. I fear we will be arguing about our relationship with the EU for the rest of our lives. At least a referendum will move us on to agree the WA or revoke.
Also remember the WA leads on to another 2 year ticking clock to another No deal cliff edge. Ground Hog Day.