Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The stark reality of the challenge facing Boris Johnson if he

24

Comments

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    These people want a Scottish court to sign a surrender letter to the EU on behalf of the UK Parliament.
    ...
    nothing will get through your distorted thought process.

    Hahaha, Nigel was right. Total dipstickery.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Scott_P said:

    If the Scottish court (=the Hero Judges?) does that, then Kwasi might have underestimated what a lot of people will be saying.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1172166032125038592
    Sadly there are still 26% of morons. Most of them support no-deal Brexit no doubt!
    I believe they are indeed prejudiced and biased but also fair and impartial! Not sure what that makes me.

    Prejudice and bias are fundamental human characteristics, they do not disappear because someone is a judge. Within that framework they are trying to be fair and impartial.
    Good point . I think British judges are the best in the world as they’re not politicized like in the USA where the Supreme Court is a sham .

    I will accept the SC decision even if clears Bozo of wrong doing . Having seen just how much thought goes into the judges questions during the GM case my respect for both judges and QCs has risen .

    I’m not embarrassed to say this but the daily transcripts of that case were brilliant reading!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awesome - so unelected Scottish judges are now running the country - can’t get any more integrated in the EU than that .

    Sounds a real vote winner for remain parties.
    Should the Supreme Court find for the government next week I think you'll find those judges are not elected either.

    Yours is a woeful argument more suited to the United States.
    Judges shouldn’t be anywhere near sending letters to the EU.

    A large % of voters will find this idea repellent . Very repellent .

    But do carry on remainers...
  • Scott_P said:
    So let me get this straight. These people want a Scottish court to sign a surrender letter to the EU on behalf of the UK Parliament.

    Is this correct?

    What a bunch.

    No dipstick, they want the UK government to be law abiding. The Conservative Party that I was once a locally prominent member (if you excuse the expression), used to be the party of law and order before the entryists took over

    Scott_P said:
    So let me get this straight. These people want a Scottish court to sign a surrender letter to the EU on behalf of the UK Parliament.

    Is this correct?

    What a bunch.

    No dipstick, they want the UK government to be law abiding. The Conservative Party that I was once a locally prominent member (if you excuse the expression), used to be the party of law and order before the entryists took over
    I shall leave aside your insult which I guarantee you would not say to my face.

    I don’t care a hoot whether you are or are not a Conservative party member. Why on earth would I? And locally prominent? Whoo hoo for you.

    The fact of the matter is that they are causing a loss of faith in our legal and parliamentary system by searching out loopholes to embarrass our nation. Parliamentarians are elected to run the nation. Not them. They are merely egotists who are using this to forward their own political agenda with no consequent loss to themselves.

    I don’t even know why I am bothering answering you as you are obviously such an unpleasant and embittered being that nothing will get through your distorted thought process.

    Keep your hair on. I called you a dipstick as I thought it a fairly mild indicator of someone who is being rather silly. I am sure I would say it to your face, or is that a typically Neanderthal macho threat from the type that has taken over my ex-party?

    The rule of law is one of the most fundamental principles of a free society. The far right that has taken over the Conservative Party cares not a jot for it. the fact that we have a PM who encourages people to think he shares such an outrageous position is dangerous indeed. The fact that anyone who can write their name thinks it is OK for a PM to break the law in such a way I a sad indictment of our education system.
  • Carnyx said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awesome - so unelected Scottish judges are now running the country - can’t get any more integrated in the EU than that .

    Sounds a real vote winner for remain parties.
    Something wrong with them being Scottish? Would ENglish be better?
    As an Ersatz Englishman, Harry thinks anything being English is better.
    There is an obvious and largely unspoken (in England at least) tension when the nations of England and Scotland are of such unequal size. Often that is England's favour, and most English people will not notice. In this scenario it gives greater weight to the legal rights of Scottish people than English people. Hence it is bound to be of some controversy, it doesnt mean those complaining thing English courts better than Scottish courts.

    I can't think of any particular clean solutions within the UK framework, obviously Scottish independence is an alternative.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awesome - so unelected Scottish judges are now running the country - can’t get any more integrated in the EU than that .

    Sounds a real vote winner for remain parties.
    Should the Supreme Court find for the government next week I think you'll find those judges are not elected either.

    Yours is a woeful argument more suited to the United States.
    Judges shouldn’t be anywhere near sending letters to the EU.

    A large % of voters will find this idea repellent . Very repellent .

    But do carry on remainers...
    Do carry on Bozo! The judge will be doing what a law of the land has said, what exactly does the PM have to do for you to say not acceptable .
  • Hmm. Twitter's indicating Trump's banning vaping.

    It seems weird given the US is relaxing laws around weed, doesn't it?
  • Scott_P said:

    If the Scottish court (=the Hero Judges?) does that, then Kwasi might have underestimated what a lot of people will be saying.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1172166032125038592
    Sadly there are still 26% of morons. Most of them support no-deal Brexit no doubt!
    I believe they are indeed prejudiced and biased but also fair and impartial! Not sure what that makes me.

    Prejudice and bias are fundamental human characteristics, they do not disappear because someone is a judge. Within that framework they are trying to be fair and impartial.
    Well you might be right, though splitting hairs somewhat. I think the inference is whether their judgements are fair and impartial, which as they are based on legal principles they mostly will be. The three judges in Scotland would not want professional opprobrium pored on them by colleagues if they did anything less.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    TGOHF said:


    No - the policy is to get Brexit done - and reap the upside in a GE.

    After the GE , discipline has to return - hence why moaning remainer MPs have been ditched - they are irrelevant in current Parliament as they aren’t in the tent anyway - TINOs ...

    That was a good strategy. Theresa May tried hard to implement it, starting from a much stronger position.
    Indeed. And while 'Boris is a better campaigner' may be true, it's an awful lot to bet on that assertion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    Kinnock and the rest of Labour MPs in Leave seats need to understand that Labour Leavers are less ardent about Leave than their Tory counterparts .

    I don't think it's all about electoral calculation given Lucy Powell (Manchester Central) is in the group. Like Nick Boles they think the result simply must be implemented.
    Yeah right. They didnt think it before for what reason then?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
  • TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awesome - so unelected Scottish judges are now running the country - can’t get any more integrated in the EU than that .

    Sounds a real vote winner for remain parties.
    Should the Supreme Court find for the government next week I think you'll find those judges are not elected either.

    Yours is a woeful argument more suited to the United States.
    Judges shouldn’t be anywhere near sending letters to the EU.

    A large % of voters will find this idea repellent . Very repellent .

    But do carry on remainers...
    A tiny vociferous percentage might, or even the less than 30% that want self-harm no-deal. But no, the large percentage won't give a toss.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2019

    Nnumbers. If the labour polling does not improve and they achieve 25% they will lose a lot of seats.

    The key is lead - rather than vote share. The polls are far from clear at present , but on the basis of Comres - Lab 29% Con 30% - Labour will gain seats from the Tories.Yougov has Labour at 23% - precisely matching the level recorded when the 2017 election was announced.
  • Good job England bat deep.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    AndyJS said:

    "A dire warning for our old political system
    Established parties are being rendered irrelevant by social change
    Tim Bale"

    https://unherd.com/2019/09/a-dire-warning-for-our-old-political-system/

    So we've heard, yet they seem to have held up pretty well so far. No guarantee of course, but their demise seems constantly predicted and never occurs
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If that passes it sounds like Boris is off the hook then?

    The court can sign the letter (allowing Boris to honour his pledge that he would never do it) and presumably as soon as the extension is granted by the EU the Opposition will allow Boris his general election as they've pledged?

    Everyone's a winner Rodders. Everyone's a winner. :D
    This time next year we will be millionairrrrrrrresss....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited September 2019
    The Scottish Court has issued its full opinion .

    The lack of a sworn affidavit, in terms of a witness statement to the reasons for suspending Parliament was crucial.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Hmm. Twitter's indicating Trump's banning vaping.

    It seems weird given the US is relaxing laws around weed, doesn't it?

    I can understand people being against tobacco smoking, and other people being in favour of cannabis smoking, but I don't understand why so many people passionately hold both opinions at the same time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    Lindsay would make a good Speaker - so given this Parliaments penchant for ALWAYS choosing the very worst possible option - I guess that rules him out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    He might not, purely because many Labour MPs know the Conservatives like him.
    Pretty bad luck for him then. People know how useful it is to get the right speaker now. I don't know which would be best, but partisan gain will lead in the voting
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited September 2019

    Hmm. Twitter's indicating Trump's banning vaping.

    It seems weird given the US is relaxing laws around weed, doesn't it?

    I think they're going to get the FDA to ban flavoured vaping solutions. ICBW but aren't those already banned in the UK/EU?

    There's been a spate of sudden deaths in the US of seemingly healthy young people caused by lung failure. These have all been linked with recent vape use, but it would seem they were all users of illegal THC/CBD vape mixtures.

    America, of course, will leave no stone unturned to protect its people. From other Americans wielding guns of from lack of affordable healthcare excepted of course.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Labour supporters probably make the best dates on that evidence.
  • Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:


    No - the policy is to get Brexit done - and reap the upside in a GE.

    After the GE , discipline has to return - hence why moaning remainer MPs have been ditched - they are irrelevant in current Parliament as they aren’t in the tent anyway - TINOs ...

    That was a good strategy. Theresa May tried hard to implement it, starting from a much stronger position.
    It was a strong position till Nick Timothy got hold of the manifesto.
    He's like that paperclip in Microsoft Word who used to offer to 'help' you write a letter in Windows 98.
    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    nico67 said:

    Kinnock and the rest of Labour MPs in Leave seats need to understand that Labour Leavers are less ardent about Leave than their Tory counterparts .

    I think they do. Not all are under threat anyway. But it covers them with those voters without annoying the core too much, since push comes to shove if theres no deal getting through they'll make the 'right' choice. By and large its posturing - nothing has changed since MV3 that should have convinced someone who was not on board st that time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,462
    edited September 2019
    rpjs said:

    Hmm. Twitter's indicating Trump's banning vaping.

    It seems weird given the US is relaxing laws around weed, doesn't it?

    I think they're going to get the FDA to ban flavoured vaping solutions. ICBW but aren't those already banned in the UK/EU?

    There's been a spate of sudden deaths in the US of seemingly healthy young people caused by lung failure. These have all been linked with recent vape use, but it would seem they were all users of illegal THC/CBD vape mixtures.

    America, of course, will leave no stone unturned to protect its people. From other Americans wielding guns of from lack of affordable healthcare excepted of course.
    My understanding is that the market leader, Juul, has an absolutely nutso level of nicotine. Way way more than traditional ciggies. Add in the sweet flavours and apparently it is a huge problem in high schools with kids absolutely jonesing on nicotine withdrawal.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Linsay would make a good Speaker - so given this Parliaments penchant for ALWAYS choosing the very worst possible option - I guess that rules him out.
    He seems a pretty sensible bloke., other than the Heathrow/Diana idea which was a bit cheesey
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    The LibDems' Catch 22 is that the seeds of their destruction are inevitably sown by their electoral success. If they ever do well enough to get into Government - which means some form of coalition - a big chunk of their coalition automatically abandons it in protest.

    Any arrangement with Corbyn will mean goodbye to all the remainy Tory types and their newly won seats in the SW. A real conundrum. And, by the way, the AV referendum did for any change in the voting system for "a generation", so that escape route is closed.
    Ideally they want to do well, but not so well they have to choose a side and break their coalition. Unfortunately the margins are so tight I dont know they can do that unless labour win a majority, which looks unlikely.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    AndyJS said:

    Hmm. Twitter's indicating Trump's banning vaping.

    It seems weird given the US is relaxing laws around weed, doesn't it?

    I can understand people being against tobacco smoking, and other people being in favour of cannabis smoking, but I don't understand why so many people passionately hold both opinions at the same time.
    Perhaps they think there is something uniquely bad about tobacco smoke which makes it dangerous to inhale, when it is much much much more likely that inhaling smoke from any burning vegetable matter is about equally bad for you (it is not, after all, what our lungs are designed for) and it is just that tobacco is what we have the most data for.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:

    If the Scottish court (=the Hero Judges?) does that, then Kwasi might have underestimated what a lot of people will be saying.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1172166032125038592
    Sadly there are still 26% of morons. Most of them support no-deal Brexit no doubt!
    I believe they are indeed prejudiced and biased but also fair and impartial! Not sure what that makes me.

    Prejudice and bias are fundamental human characteristics, they do not disappear because someone is a judge. Within that framework they are trying to be fair and impartial.
    Well you might be right, though splitting hairs somewhat. I think the inference is whether their judgements are fair and impartial, which as they are based on legal principles they mostly will be. The three judges in Scotland would not want professional opprobrium pored on them by colleagues if they did anything less.
    The issue is that without much case law, the impact of prejudices and biases is inevitably bigger in this scenario than for cases where there is a more established framework.

    Not sure their colleagues are in a position to say if they are right or wrong, like umpires call in cricket these type of judgements get backed up by the legal establishment whichever way they go.

    Whilst noting there may be some prejudice and bias, it will tend to favour the establishment (i.e. govt in this case) simply due to senior judges living quite similar lives to senior politicians.

    Also there is no better system available, certainly not PMs deciding for themselves what is lawful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU would love to stick their necks out and say no more extensions, sure.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    Corbyn has taken a very strong line against Blue Brexit (ie. one negotiated by the Tories) and I'm sceptical that he will allow his troops to vote for any update of the WA that Boris cobbles together.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Well here's a turn up. A decent article* by Bastaani on Novara.

    https://novaramedia.com/2019/09/12/fuck-business-fuck-the-law-fuck-parliament-the-descent-of-british-conservatism/

    * Until the last few paragraphs, which are cringeworthy and can be safely ignored.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    With respect to TSE, I think he's wrong on this for one simple reason: Labour is polling about 25%.

    The Tories do not necessarily need to win over Labour leavers in any great number (though it's worth noting that Johnson's net rating with Lab leavers (2017GE/2016EURef) is about 30 points higher than Corbyn's is.

    What Johnson does need is:
    - to keep Con losses to the Brexit Party to a minimum: certainly under 10%, ideally under 7%; and
    - to keep Labour from recovering above the mid-20s.

    As long as Labour are down by 15%+ from 2017, it doesn't much matter if those voters have gone Green, Lib Dem, abstain or Con (though obviously Con is best for him): the losses will be so great that simple maths does the rest.

    It all has worrying echoes of Miliband's 35% strategy in GE2015 to me, but in reverse.
    Good point, good example. It's a very narrow margin, trying to game FPP like that. As Ed discovered!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    kle4 said:

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU would love to stick their necks out and say no more extensions, sure.
    The EU would love to get Brexit put away and end the risk of recession. No more extensions and some flexibility on the back-stop gets Brexit done. What's not to love?

    The French are already on board with no more extensions. And Macron can look the hard man of EU politics that forced a Brexit solution.

    The signs are there for those who aren't too blinded to see.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280
    Boris is certainly winning more Labour voters, 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting are now voting Tory with Yougov this week while only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    The Tories will also be helped by the fact far more Labour voters are now voting LD than was the case in 2017, 18% with Yougov this week while it is not only the Tories losing votes to the Brexit Party, 8% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party with Yougov too.

  • tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    The LibDems' Catch 22 is that the seeds of their destruction are inevitably sown by their electoral success. If they ever do well enough to get into Government - which means some form of coalition - a big chunk of their coalition automatically abandons it in protest.

    Any arrangement with Corbyn will mean goodbye to all the remainy Tory types and their newly won seats in the SW. A real conundrum. And, by the way, the AV referendum did for any change in the voting system for "a generation", so that escape route is closed.
    It is certainly a barrier to their electoral success.

    They can still achieve by forcing Labour and Tories onto their agenda over time to attract the median voter. Looked at this way they were pretty successful from 1990-2015, much of their agenda was delivered by Blair and Cameron, (yes obviously not all and significant differences can be found).

    If they want to be electorally successful over a period of time they need to be a broad church party that accepts different traditions within it. The other parties have moved away from that approach, creating a big gap in that market, but it does seem social media and the 24hr news cycle makes broad church politics much harder than it used to be.
  • I hope Lindsay gets elected - he is just what we need at the moment
    Adonis described Harman as the “continuity Bercow” candidate. Approvingly....
    Sadly, such a label probably helps her.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    edited September 2019
    I think this is right. Even with, say, a 29% to 24% Tory lead, I would reckon that the Tories' net losses would be bigger than Labour's - gaining seats from Labour in the North and Midlands but losing to Labour and the Lib Dems in the South and to the SNP in Scotland. My guess is you'd get the Tories below 290, Labour below 250, SNP around 50 and Lib Dems 40+.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    edited September 2019
    Dadge said:

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    Corbyn has taken a very strong line against Blue Brexit (ie. one negotiated by the Tories) and I'm sceptical that he will allow his troops to vote for any update of the WA that Boris cobbles together.
    Corbyn will be hung out to dry by MPs who have said they cannot countenance No Deal Brexit. The more they have schemed and connived to kill No Deal, the more they have ensured that Boris will get his winning endgame.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Interesting point .

    When Bozo said he didn’t lie to the Queen , in his other comments re the different court cases he lied !

    The English Court didn’t rule on whether he misled the Queen . Bozo is a pathological liar .

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Unbelievable. Just when I'm giving the Juul a go - after years of procrastinating - it turns out that kills you too.

    Still, at least it's cheaper. And it looks quite cool - if you think that looking like you are suckling on a computer memory stick is cool. Which I do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280

    Interesting thread header by TSE.

    I think the levels of support for Tories vs. TBP will be directly affected by the Brexit supporting media: Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and Daily Express. The Brexit supporting media cannot give overwelming support to the PM and Tories at the same time as they do to Farage and TBP. If they dilute their support by trying to back both they may strangle Brexit as Labour, LD or SNP come through the middle.

    On Labour seats being targeted. I cannot see why traditionally Labour inclined voters would support the Tories, when Tories think the rich dont have enough money and should be given more money at the expense of the poor Labour voters! :wink:

    The Tories that took the lowest earners out of tax, increased the minimum wage and are increasing spending on the NHS you mean?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    kle4 said:

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU would love to stick their necks out and say no more extensions, sure.
    The EU would love to get Brexit put away and end the risk of recession. No more extensions and some flexibility on the back-stop gets Brexit done. What's not to love?

    The French are already on board with no more extensions. And Macron can look the hard man of EU politics that forced a Brexit solution.

    The signs are there for those who aren't too blinded to see.

    kle4 said:

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU would love to stick their necks out and say no more extensions, sure.
    The EU would love to get Brexit put away and end the risk of recession. No more extensions and some flexibility on the back-stop gets Brexit done. What's not to love?

    The French are already on board with no more extensions. And Macron can look the hard man of EU politics that forced a Brexit solution.

    The signs are there for those who aren't too blinded to see.
    How do the French persuade Jezza to vote for a deal then ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    I'm glad that someone else has noticed that the current conservative election strategy is sub-optimal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280

    tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    Anecdote alert - I spoke to a wealthy, liberal Remain voting Tory who lives in a marginal London seat that Labourt won last time. While he feels the Conservative party has deserted him, he would choose Brexit over Corbyn and so will vote Conservative to get the Labour MP out
    Anedote alert: I am a liberal, remain voting ex Tory activist, that lives in a not very marginal seat. I will be voting LD until the Conservative Party returns to being a broad church party of business and strong economics. Until then it offers not much advantage over Corbyn.
    So you are basically a liberal not a conservative and indeed probably would have voted for the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Palmerston and the Peelites over the Tory Party of Derby, Disraeli and Salisbury had you been alive in the 19th century.

    You only really became a conservative to keep Labour out
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Good job England bat deep.....

    About six feet under, as far as their hopes of winning anything are concerned.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    The really interesting polling is that there has been essentially no movement of voters between Labour and the Conservatives since 2017. In most elections one of those parties gains voters off the other and wins the election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280

    Second like Lib Dems... in the popular vote. But not in seats.

    It could happen.

    It would take a big Tory collapse for the LDs to finish second behind Labour. I guess 20% Tory, 20% Brexit would do the trick.
    The LDs could overtake Labour they could not push the the Tories into 3rd, only the Brexit Party could do that
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    Anecdote alert - I spoke to a wealthy, liberal Remain voting Tory who lives in a marginal London seat that Labourt won last time. While he feels the Conservative party has deserted him, he would choose Brexit over Corbyn and so will vote Conservative to get the Labour MP out
    Anedote alert: I am a liberal, remain voting ex Tory activist, that lives in a not very marginal seat. I will be voting LD until the Conservative Party returns to being a broad church party of business and strong economics. Until then it offers not much advantage over Corbyn.
    So you are basically a liberal not a conservative and indeed probably would have voted for the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Palmerston and the Peelites over the Tory Party of Derby, Disraeli and Salisbury had you been alive in the 19th century.

    You only really became a conservative to keep Labour out
    Well you only want Brexit to keep Corbyn out so pot, meet kettle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,280

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    Anecdote alert - I spoke to a wealthy, liberal Remain voting Tory who lives in a marginal London seat that Labourt won last time. While he feels the Conservative party has deserted him, he would choose Brexit over Corbyn and so will vote Conservative to get the Labour MP out
    Anedote alert: I am a liberal, remain voting ex Tory activist, that lives in a not very marginal seat. I will be voting LD until the Conservative Party returns to being a broad church party of business and strong economics. Until then it offers not much advantage over Corbyn.
    So you are basically a liberal not a conservative and indeed probably would have voted for the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Palmerston and the Peelites over the Tory Party of Derby, Disraeli and Salisbury had you been alive in the 19th century.

    You only really became a conservative to keep Labour out
    Well you only want Brexit to keep Corbyn out so pot, meet kettle.
    I also back respecting democracy and the Leave vote anyway
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Nothing political about that - no sireeeeee.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    Anecdote alert - I spoke to a wealthy, liberal Remain voting Tory who lives in a marginal London seat that Labourt won last time. While he feels the Conservative party has deserted him, he would choose Brexit over Corbyn and so will vote Conservative to get the Labour MP out
    Anedote alert: I am a liberal, remain voting ex Tory activist, that lives in a not very marginal seat. I will be voting LD until the Conservative Party returns to being a broad church party of business and strong economics. Until then it offers not much advantage over Corbyn.
    So you are basically a liberal not a conservative and indeed probably would have voted for the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Palmerston and the Peelites over the Tory Party of Derby, Disraeli and Salisbury had you been alive in the 19th century.

    You only really became a conservative to keep Labour out
    Well you only want Brexit to keep Corbyn out so pot, meet kettle.
    I also back respecting democracy and the Leave vote anyway
    Yes. This meme again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting thread header by TSE.

    I think the levels of support for Tories vs. TBP will be directly affected by the Brexit supporting media: Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and Daily Express. The Brexit supporting media cannot give overwelming support to the PM and Tories at the same time as they do to Farage and TBP. If they dilute their support by trying to back both they may strangle Brexit as Labour, LD or SNP come through the middle.

    On Labour seats being targeted. I cannot see why traditionally Labour inclined voters would support the Tories, when Tories think the rich dont have enough money and should be given more money at the expense of the poor Labour voters! :wink:

    The Tories that took the lowest earners out of tax, increased the minimum wage and are increasing spending on the NHS you mean?
    No - the Tories who have:
    - gutted public services;
    - created a hostile environment for people with on benefits, especially those with disabilities(see @dyedwoolie earlier);
    - allowed real wages to stagnate for 10 years
    https://fullfact.org/economy/employment-since-2010-wages/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If BoZo puts May's deal to referendum, and it wins, will the headbangers still vote against it?

    Who are the traitors in that scenario?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Boris is certainly winning more Labour voters, 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting are now voting Tory with Yougov this week while only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    The Tories will also be helped by the fact far more Labour voters are now voting LD than was the case in 2017, 18% with Yougov this week while it is not only the Tories losing votes to the Brexit Party, 8% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party with Yougov too.

    Indeed. And the data on which the argument in the thread rests is hopelessly outdated. It dates back to the fag end of May's premiership in March 2019, when there was a different closet Remainer Conservative PM flogging an agreement unpopular in the country amongst both Remainers and Leavers.

    Recent data leads to the opposite conclusion to the thread and one which supports yours. It prompted Opinium to comment with their most recent poll that:
    ".... the Conservatives currently have a sizeable lead because for the first time since the 2017 general election we are recording a direct shift in votes between the two major parties. Just over a fifth (22%) of Labour Leave voters are now intending to vote Conservative, prioritising Brexit over traditional party loyalties."

    That is in fact understating the scale of the shift, because in that poll 41% of Labour Leavers switched to either the Conservatives or Brexit Party, almost as many as the 45% who still intend to vote for Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Hmm. To my non legal mind that concession that 2 years would be reviewable does seem critical. Though it still seems to me that the motives are political so not really relevant, if awful. We shall see.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The problem for Bozo is that government lawyers conceded that a two year suspension might be justiciable but were defending the current one because it was only 5 weeks .

    The HC let them get away with that but it’s doubtful the SC would .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Good point, good example. It's a very narrow margin, trying to game FPP like that. As Ed discovered!

    Cummings though. Could he be the difference?

    If there were such a thing as a national pulse that a single person could have their finger on, would that person right now be Dominic Cummings and would that finger therefore belong to him?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Prorogation court cases: the hypocrisy of the Brexiters needs to be emphasised. They weren't complaining when the London court didn't rule against Boris. Now they're complaining when the Scottish court does rule against.

    Also the disingenuousness of the Brexiters. They are simply lying when they say the courts should stay out of politics. What if PM Corbyn or PM Swinson prorogued parliament for 6 months? They'd be happy with that?

    The courts have a very important role in our constitution, in keeping our democracy ticking over.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    If BoZo puts May's deal to referendum, and it wins, will the headbangers still vote against it?

    Who are the traitors in that scenario?

    I've said all along, May should have put her deal to a referendum when she couldn't get it past the HoC in January.

    With a bit of wit and imagination, she could have agreed a 3 option STV (or is it AV?) referendum.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    The Boris-Cummings 'strategy' is frankly completely bonkers. The strategy seems to be to start by alienating a large chunk of faithful Tory voters, some of whom like me had been voting Conservative for decades, on of the off-chance that they can be replaced by Leavers who have never voted Tory in their lives, who will want the most extreme from of Brexit, and who are attracted by silencing parliament and sacking of distinguished Cabinet ministers, all against a brain-dead self-imposed arbitrary deadline which is unrealistically soon and will be missed.

    Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.

    It reminds me of the Lib Dem talk in coalition about losing the oppositional lefty voters, and replacing them with middle ground centrists looking for good governance who would vote LD in their grateful droves.

    8%

    8 seats.
    Anecdote alert - I spoke to a wealthy, liberal Remain voting Tory who lives in a marginal London seat that Labourt won last time. While he feels the Conservative party has deserted him, he would choose Brexit over Corbyn and so will vote Conservative to get the Labour MP out
    Anedote alert: I am a liberal, remain voting ex Tory activist, that lives in a not very marginal seat. I will be voting LD until the Conservative Party returns to being a broad church party of business and strong economics. Until then it offers not much advantage over Corbyn.
    So you are basically a liberal not a conservative and indeed probably would have voted for the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Palmerston and the Peelites over the Tory Party of Derby, Disraeli and Salisbury had you been alive in the 19th century.

    You only really became a conservative to keep Labour out
    Well you only want Brexit to keep Corbyn out so pot, meet kettle.
    I also back respecting democracy and the Leave vote anyway
    Yes. This meme again.
    Democracy is a meme ?

    No wonder the EU want to do away with it...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU isn't really the issue here. If course they are happy with their own deal. My question is what has changed in parliament to make May's Deal acceptable, beyond Johnson no longer thinking it's a turd because his name is now attached to it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    kinabalu said:

    Good point, good example. It's a very narrow margin, trying to game FPP like that. As Ed discovered!

    Cummings though. Could he be the difference?

    If there were such a thing as a national pulse that a single person could have their finger on, would that person right now be Dominic Cummings and would that finger therefore belong to him?
    No, no, and no.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Dadge said:


    Also the disingenuousness of the Brexiters. They are simply lying when they say the courts should stay out of politics. What if PM Corbyn or PM Swinson prorogued parliament for 6 months? They'd be happy with that?

    Or if, for the next EU referendum, Parliament legislated for everyone under 40 to get two votes, before the courts intervened to say it violated human rights law to give some adults more votes than others.
  • kinabalu said:

    Good point, good example. It's a very narrow margin, trying to game FPP like that. As Ed discovered!

    Cummings though. Could he be the difference?

    If there were such a thing as a national pulse that a single person could have their finger on, would that person right now be Dominic Cummings and would that finger therefore belong to him?
    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.
  • TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awesome - so unelected Scottish judges are now running the country - can’t get any more integrated in the EU than that .

    Sounds a real vote winner for remain parties.
    If you don’t want us we’re happy to piss off.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting thread header by TSE.

    I think the levels of support for Tories vs. TBP will be directly affected by the Brexit supporting media: Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and Daily Express. The Brexit supporting media cannot give overwelming support to the PM and Tories at the same time as they do to Farage and TBP. If they dilute their support by trying to back both they may strangle Brexit as Labour, LD or SNP come through the middle.

    On Labour seats being targeted. I cannot see why traditionally Labour inclined voters would support the Tories, when Tories think the rich dont have enough money and should be given more money at the expense of the poor Labour voters! :wink:

    The Tories that took the lowest earners out of tax, increased the minimum wage and are increasing spending on the NHS you mean?
    Actually, the raising of the starting threshold for paying income tax was an LD policy that they insisted on as part of the coalition. Increasing the minimum wage can be done by any idiot. Funny how food bank use by the working poor under the Tories has rocketed. Yes, NHS spending has increased but how much was wasted on the Lansley changes the Tories insisted upon? Demographic change has actually meant NHS spending has not been enough for demand and so shortcuts have led to a deterioration in quality and service levels. I use NHS services regularly and can testify it is getting worse not better...
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,122
    I think this comment thread shows one good reason why the courts should set the bar of justiciability of prerogative power very high indeed. Every time the court steps into matters of high policy it will find itself with critics upset at the political effects of the judgment. Yes, it will get acolytes praising the decision for its political ramifications, but that's little if any better.

    Either results in people - people subject to that court's jurisdiction - having their confidence in the judiciary wholly wrongly affected by their view of the politics of the judgment, not the quality of the judgment. That's not the way it should be. The UK courts are not SCOTUS or the CJEU. They are not supposed to have a political bias, or function, or even a view.

    I know some of you will be much more willing to see greater judicial oversight in such matters. Lord Reed would be amongst them, and he's the next president of the supreme court. But the extension of justiciability isn't a panacea. Far from it. We wouldn't ask the court to say which football team to support, which client to take on, or whether one's paramour is a wrongun. Each is a judgement call, not a judgment.

    So it must be for prerogative power. Giving the judiciary control over the executive would land you with the same sort of crisis that the FTPA has caused by giving the legislature the sign over HMG. We separate the powers of executive, legislature and judiciary for good reasons. This is one of them.
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting thread header by TSE.

    I think the levels of support for Tories vs. TBP will be directly affected by the Brexit supporting media: Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and Daily Express. The Brexit supporting media cannot give overwelming support to the PM and Tories at the same time as they do to Farage and TBP. If they dilute their support by trying to back both they may strangle Brexit as Labour, LD or SNP come through the middle.

    On Labour seats being targeted. I cannot see why traditionally Labour inclined voters would support the Tories, when Tories think the rich dont have enough money and should be given more money at the expense of the poor Labour voters! :wink:

    The Tories that took the lowest earners out of tax, increased the minimum wage and are increasing spending on the NHS you mean?
    No - the Tories who have:
    - gutted public services;
    - created a hostile environment for people with on benefits, especially those with disabilities(see @dyedwoolie earlier);
    - allowed real wages to stagnate for 10 years
    https://fullfact.org/economy/employment-since-2010-wages/
    TBF that was the Lib Dems as well as the Tories, albeit that only the Tories have been carrying on the work since 2015.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    No, no, and no.

    Well I fervently hope you are right. But I'm not feeling optimistic atm. It's not easy for me in my Hampstead bubble to pick up the sounds and smells of an impending softhead populist triumph at the polls but nevertheless I am. I've got a bad feeling about this.
  • Or, Patrick, this could all be a symptom of 28 commissioners each being chosen by their own sovereign government without an over-arching supranational body enforcing diversity quotas on who’s chosen. (Though I’d concede that still doesn’t make it a great look)

    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1172186572361535498?s=20
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kinabalu said:

    Good point, good example. It's a very narrow margin, trying to game FPP like that. As Ed discovered!

    Cummings though. Could he be the difference?

    If there were such a thing as a national pulse that a single person could have their finger on, would that person right now be Dominic Cummings and would that finger therefore belong to him?
    I don't think the strategy is a stupid one but I don't see much sign of Cummings' strategic brilliance either. Frankly, if you don't think you will win against the most unpopular political leader, ever, you shouldn't be in the game.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    Hmm. Twitter's indicating Trump's banning vaping.

    It seems weird given the US is relaxing laws around weed, doesn't it?

    I can understand people being against tobacco smoking, and other people being in favour of cannabis smoking, but I don't understand why so many people passionately hold both opinions at the same time.
    You can't vape but you can shoot !
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris is certainly winning more Labour voters, 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting are now voting Tory with Yougov this week while only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    The Tories will also be helped by the fact far more Labour voters are now voting LD than was the case in 2017, 18% with Yougov this week while it is not only the Tories losing votes to the Brexit Party, 8% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party with Yougov too.

    Indeed. And the data on which the argument in the thread rests is hopelessly outdated. It dates back to the fag end of May's premiership in March 2019, when there was a different closet Remainer Conservative PM flogging an agreement unpopular in the country amongst both Remainers and Leavers.

    Recent data leads to the opposite conclusion to the thread and one which supports yours. It prompted Opinium to comment with their most recent poll that:
    ".... the Conservatives currently have a sizeable lead because for the first time since the 2017 general election we are recording a direct shift in votes between the two major parties. Just over a fifth (22%) of Labour Leave voters are now intending to vote Conservative, prioritising Brexit over traditional party loyalties."

    That is in fact understating the scale of the shift, because in that poll 41% of Labour Leavers switched to either the Conservatives or Brexit Party, almost as many as the 45% who still intend to vote for Corbyn.
    You don't understand how the BES polling waves work do you?

    As has been pointed out regardless of the size of the Tory lead or when there's no Tory lead the Labour voter metrics are largely the same in previous waves.

    Plus as noted the Tories were picking up even more Labour switchers in early 2017 in the standard opinion polls than they are now but they never turned actually did switch to the Tories on election day.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_P said:
    When I was a trainee in a family law seat I was involved in getting a High Court judge in London to sign the papers selling the marital home when our client’s ex point blank refused. Different sort of divorce though I suppose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    LOL Buttler - 'enough of this test batting shit...!'
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    kinabalu said:

    No, no, and no.

    Well I fervently hope you are right. But I'm not feeling optimistic atm. It's not easy for me in my Hampstead bubble to pick up the sounds and smells of an impending softhead populist triumph at the polls but nevertheless I am. I've got a bad feeling about this.
    Everything depends on the circumstances at the time of a GE. That GE might not be until next spring. A lot could happen in the meantime.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    edited September 2019
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU would love to stick their necks out and say no more extensions, sure.
    The EU would love to get Brexit put away and end the risk of recession. No more extensions and some flexibility on the back-stop gets Brexit done. What's not to love?

    The French are already on board with no more extensions. And Macron can look the hard man of EU politics that forced a Brexit solution.

    The signs are there for those who aren't too blinded to see.

    kle4 said:

    The ONLY way out that makes sense is for the EU to agree a deal with Boris that has some tweaks to the backstop he can sell as moving on from May's Shit Deal, backed up by no further extensions from the EU.

    So then our Parliament has to decide - Deal or No Deal.

    Of course they will go for the Deal.
    The EU would love to stick their necks out and say no more extensions, sure.
    The EU would love to get Brexit put away and end the risk of recession. No more extensions and some flexibility on the back-stop gets Brexit done. What's not to love?

    The French are already on board with no more extensions. And Macron can look the hard man of EU politics that forced a Brexit solution.

    The signs are there for those who aren't too blinded to see.
    How do the French persuade Jezza to vote for a deal then ?
    They leave the only other option as No Deal by granting no further extensions.

    Of course, given his ability to walk away from his previous positions, he might come out and say "No Deal - no biggie,....."
  • kinabalu said:

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
    Nah, we need David Herdson to go canvassing.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    Mark Pack has announced his candidacy for President of the Liberal Democrats to succeed Sal Brinton. Over the years the post has been used by MPs to raise their profile ( Kennedy, Farron) or to reward prominent party stalwarts ( Brinton, Dholakia). We await further nominations.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Doesn't the lead miss the point that the Tories win these seats when Labour remainers switch to the LDs?
  • OMG (from another PB)

    Back in 2007, a 17-year-old Aussie signed for a village cricket team in Cheshire: Grappenhall CC.

    He arrived on a Tuesday but by the Friday, before a training session had even been held, he was already on his way home. The teenage cricketer had been so appalled by the boorish, drunken antics of his would-be teammates in their local, the Mulberry Tree, that he left.

    It's a shame because, as the son of a UK passport holder, if things had worked out there he could have gone on to play for England.

    As it was, Steve Smith opted for Australia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    kinabalu said:

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
    Nah, we need David Herdson to go canvassing.
    On behalf of which party ? :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    IanB2 said:

    Doesn't the lead miss the point that the Tories win these seats when Labour remainers switch to the LDs?

    Labour will do enough to keep the majority of their Remainer vote imo.

    LDs will pick up Tory Remainers who have nowhere else to go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    IanB2 said:

    Doesn't the lead miss the point that the Tories win these seats when Labour remainers switch to the LDs?

    Labour will do enough to keep the majority of their Remainer vote imo.

    LDs will pick up Tory Remainers who have nowhere else to go.
    That's my thinking as well. When motivated by a desire to remain i think even with no official pact there will be significant tactical consideration and people will stick with Labour rather than let a no dealer through.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,122
    Danny565 said:

    Dadge said:


    Also the disingenuousness of the Brexiters. They are simply lying when they say the courts should stay out of politics. What if PM Corbyn or PM Swinson prorogued parliament for 6 months? They'd be happy with that?

    Or if, for the next EU referendum, Parliament legislated for everyone under 40 to get two votes, before the courts intervened to say it violated human rights law to give some adults more votes than others.
    The two votes for under-40s example isn't an exercise of political judgement, it's an act of Parliament.

    And a prorogued Parliament can pass no laws. HMG would be toothless, not to mention penniless. Were a government so to prorogue, the remedy would rightly lie in a VoNC on Parliment's return.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited September 2019
    kinabalu said:

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
    I spoke to someone who voted Leave and then Tory in 2017, within the last 7 days. The person now thinks Brexit is undeliverable and should be axed. The person also said in the past they liked Farage and they would vote for BJ if he became Tory leader. The person I have known a longtime has abandoned Brexit and now the Tories. The person lives in a Tory held Leave marginal. Qualitive information can be very useful when deciding how politics is being recieved.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    kinabalu said:

    No, no, and no.

    Well I fervently hope you are right. But I'm not feeling optimistic atm. It's not easy for me in my Hampstead bubble to pick up the sounds and smells of an impending softhead populist triumph at the polls but nevertheless I am. I've got a bad feeling about this.
    Me too. Boris winning a majority on c 35% of the vote. Taking us out of the EU. Then, an almighty battle as the low tax pro business and immigrants wing takes on the anti foreigner tax and spenders. Within the context of an already less than popular administration.
    Happy days.
  • Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
    Nah, we need David Herdson to go canvassing.
    On behalf of which party ? :smile:
    I hope for a One Nation Conservative Party that used to exit up until 2016.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    OMG (from another PB)

    Back in 2007, a 17-year-old Aussie signed for a village cricket team in Cheshire: Grappenhall CC.

    He arrived on a Tuesday but by the Friday, before a training session had even been held, he was already on his way home. The teenage cricketer had been so appalled by the boorish, drunken antics of his would-be teammates in their local, the Mulberry Tree, that he left.

    It's a shame because, as the son of a UK passport holder, if things had worked out there he could have gone on to play for England.

    As it was, Steve Smith opted for Australia.

    Misbehaving in the Warrington area? Well, I never!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
    Nah, we need David Herdson to go canvassing.
    On behalf of which party ? :smile:
    I hope for a One Nation Conservative Party that used to exit up until 2016.
    You'll need to wait a few elections.
  • kinabalu said:

    You are looking for Brenda from Bristol.

    Yep. We need to know how she is voting and also Mrs Duffy.

    That gives us the result of the election - perhaps even the seat totals.

    You can stick your yougovs up your arse.
    I spoke to someone who voted Leave and then Tory, within the last 7 days. The person now thinks Brexit is undeliverable and should be axed. The person also said in the past they liked Farage and they would vote for BJ if he became Tory leader. The person I have known a longtime has abandoned Brexit and now the Tories. The person lives in a Tory held Leave marginal. Qualitive information can be very useful when deciding how politics is being recieved.
    Are they planning to vote LD or Lab if there is a GE soon?
This discussion has been closed.