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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The stark reality of the challenge facing Boris Johnson if he wants to win Labour held seats that backed Leave
This should scare the sh*t out of Number 10 https://t.co/1buBaBDotI
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It could happen.
The Conservative voter analysis that mirrors the Labour one (above) that should worry number 10. Tribalism is alive and well:
https://medium.com/@psurridge/volatility-and-vote-switching-part-ii-conservative-2017-voters-f70d735e70cb
Given the concentration of the 2017 vote among strong leave identifiers a more potent threat to the Conservative vote is likely to come in the shape of the Brexit Party. In total over half of the ‘very strong leave’ group give their likelihood of voting for the Brexit Party as 6/10 or higher. Given this also represents almost half of the total 2017 Conservative vote it leaves open the possibility of up to a quarter of 2017 Conservative voters moving to the Brexit Party (polling immediately after the EU Parliament election detected this). Initial polling suggested the change of leadership in the Conservative party could be enough to stem this flow but the danger remains present should the government (be seen as) failing to deliver on its Brexit commitment.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1172153941855014912?s=20
This goes, I think, for both Brexit before GE and after.
The LDs are the ones to gain whatever happens by being first to the post with a strong remainer strategy.
Firstly, they stay at home. I see this as unlikely as Labour in these traditional areas has a good GOTV game and the Tory turnout will also be somewhat depressed (didn't they vote Tory in 2017 to get this sorted by now?)
Secondly, they go for the Brexit Party. The trouble is, it is far from clear they draw more from Labour than the Tories, although they may be less associated with the right than were UKIP as a brand.
Finally, they could go Lib Dem. This is more plausible, but the Lib Dems won't be campaigning hard in the relevant seats and it's not really in the Tories' hands - they are very reliant on Labour running a poor squeeze and the Lib Dems being resilient - they are spectators in a way.
SI suggests 20 or so. Much more than that seems improbable. Labour's core vote is famously resilient.
I just don't see where the Conservatives find enough wins to offset their probable losses in Scotland and to the LDS, plus enough to give them a majority. They will need a very fair wind to achieve that.
Put the blues in a fix. Do they promise to re-trigger Article 50 or have Referendum 3: Refer With A Vengeance? Or do they not?
If they don't, it's spring time for Farage and BP. If they do, it'll piss off a lot of moderate/floating voters who want the matter settled regardless of how, and won't be enthused about voting to prolong/return to the dispute.
Amazing they started it off at 0.5/1.5 really, unless you're expecting the trifecta of Farage returning there, a complete Tory collapse/ Brexit collapse and a change in the voting system to something more favourable really no way you can buy - not even the true tail risk that selling BXP begets.
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1172154579196272643?s=20
There's a lot of merit in that approach - but I think the temptation to go for a GE straight after Boris has betrayed his "do or die by Oct 31st" pledge - the dumbest any politician has made since Nick Clegg on tuition fees - will prove irresistible.
Behold the octopus camouflage talents of Morris Dancer!
Thou shalt never know the true me!
Trouble is, intuitively, those seats look LEAST likely to be receptive to the newfound Lib Dem mojo. They are most likely to bear a grudge over "Tory enablers of the bedroom tax etc", least likely to be put off by the Corbyn antisemitism issue, and least likely to find Revoke and Remain appealing.
That's part of the reason why I don't think UNS will be a good guide, and will tend to work against the blues.
The Tories do not necessarily need to win over Labour leavers in any great number (though it's worth noting that Johnson's net rating with Lab leavers (2017GE/2016EURef) is about 30 points higher than Corbyn's is.
What Johnson does need is:
- to keep Con losses to the Brexit Party to a minimum: certainly under 10%, ideally under 7%; and
- to keep Labour from recovering above the mid-20s.
As long as Labour are down by 15%+ from 2017, it doesn't much matter if those voters have gone Green, Lib Dem, abstain or Con (though obviously Con is best for him): the losses will be so great that simple maths does the rest.
It's only preventing a No deal Brexit the majority of the House agrees on.
So the question is whether that's sufficiently uniform to make up for maybe 20-30 losses to the SNP and Lib Dems and more to achieve a majority to pursue a Brexit policy.
The risk for the Tories is that Labour are down by MORE in some of the shires where they briefly replaced the Lib Dems as the main opposition in 2015 and 2017. Will Labour lose that much sleep going from 25% to 5% in some of these places? It might even help nudge up Tory losses to the Lib Dems. Ditto, will they worry about going from 80% to 60% in real fortresses? Perhaps not. The issue is the fairly marginal but traditionally Labour northern towns - here I suspect the Lib Dems won't be stripping as many votes off Labour as in the shires, and this will help Labour hold up okay.
The article was bollocks.
Honestly if you cannot describe properly what a hedge fund does then do not even talk about it.
But the original tweet went viral
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1172145121820839936
"No Deal" was widely thought (including among PBers) to be the only alternative to a Deal at the first two meaningful votes, and that didn't work so well. Only on MV3, when a long extension was on the cards, did the deal get even remotely close to passing.
Maybe 2021 if we have to have a 3rd referendum if remain lose next summer.
Even in its own terms, this could only have (partially) worked before October 31st; after that Boris will either have missed his do-or-die deadline and therefore lose all the extreme Leavers for whom that is a religious requirement, or somehow managed to defy the law and failed to deliver the required Article 50 letter. How many more MPs and supporters will give up on him if he defies the law in that way? And even if he does defy the law, it is unlikely that parliament and the courts will simply let us crash out.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2486789/#Comment_2486789
A study by Yale and NYU Stern economists suggested that during that six-year period, the average annual return for offshore hedge funds was 13.6%, whereas the average annual gain for the S&P 500 was 16.5%
I'd have thought the fees were a bit steeper than the average tracker too...
After the GE , discipline has to return - hence why moaning remainer MPs have been ditched - they are irrelevant in current Parliament as they aren’t in the tent anyway - TINOs ...
Sounds a real vote winner for remain parties.
The court can sign the letter (allowing Boris to honour his pledge that he would never do it) and presumably as soon as the extension is granted by the EU the Opposition will allow Boris his general election as they've pledged?
Everyone's a winner Rodders. Everyone's a winner.
8%
8 seats.
I think it is hard to call the DUP an opposition party.
Remember, Theresa also argued that she hadn't wanted to delay Brexit and had been forced into it by Parliament.
Is this correct?
What a bunch.
It's the same statistical fallacy that had the US Department of Defence spend years investigating ESP.
Yours is a woeful argument more suited to the United States.
"A legal challenge to Brexit that argued the Government's strategy will damage the Northern Ireland peace process has been dismissed as "inherently and unmistakably political"."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/12/belfast-court-dismisses-third-legal-challenge-brexit-unmistakably/
Any arrangement with Corbyn will mean goodbye to all the remainy Tory types and their newly won seats in the SW. A real conundrum. And, by the way, the AV referendum did for any change in the voting system for "a generation", so that escape route is closed.
I think the levels of support for Tories vs. TBP will be directly affected by the Brexit supporting media: Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and Daily Express. The Brexit supporting media cannot give overwelming support to the PM and Tories at the same time as they do to Farage and TBP. If they dilute their support by trying to back both they may strangle Brexit as Labour, LD or SNP come through the middle.
On Labour seats being targeted. I cannot see why traditionally Labour inclined voters would support the Tories, when Tories think the rich dont have enough money and should be given more money at the expense of the poor Labour voters!
Prejudice and bias are fundamental human characteristics, they do not disappear because someone is a judge. Within that framework they are trying to be fair and impartial.
I don’t care a hoot whether you are or are not a Conservative party member. Why on earth would I? And locally prominent? Whoo hoo for you.
The fact of the matter is that they are causing a loss of faith in our legal and parliamentary system by searching out loopholes to embarrass our nation. Parliamentarians are elected to run the nation. Not them. They are merely egotists who are using this to forward their own political agenda with no consequent loss to themselves.
I don’t even know why I am bothering answering you as you are obviously such an unpleasant and embittered being that nothing will get through your distorted thought process.
Established parties are being rendered irrelevant by social change
Tim Bale"
https://unherd.com/2019/09/a-dire-warning-for-our-old-political-system/
https://twitter.com/SophieWarnes/status/1172119790208659456
Right. Everyone does it.
"Everyone does it" doesn't mean the site analytics data doesn't also provide useful political insight as well as usability research. Spoiler: it does.
"Everyone does it" doesn't mean the site analytics data can't be combined with other datasets to provide really, really useful political insight. Datasets that you might have to hand if, say, you're someone with a track record of Facebook-powered research.
It is, I guess, possible that Cummings and Johnson asked for GDS to turbocharge their analytics capability simply because they want to improve usability on gov.uk (wouldn't be hard), but personally I'm sceptical.
https://twitter.com/SophieWarnes/status/1172118687177990145
Right. Cadwalladr is clearly an "innocent abroad" in tech reporting. She has no idea what she's writing about. Someone clued-up could wipe the floor with her, if they were writing consistently about all this. Which. They. Aren't.