The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
You'd do nothing of the sort.
I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
Im really sure you cant!!
He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.
But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.
Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
If you wanted to leave, your fellow travellers in parliament had their chance to do it.
They chose not to.
No you’re wrong. Many Remain MPs were elected in a pledge to leave with a deal, and have voted against a deal three times.
They pledged to leave with a different deal.
The question was "leave" or "remain". The rest is sophistry or excuses...
We’re not talking about the referendum. We’re talking about GE2017.
Several posters (including Smithson) labour the point about 'no deal' not being on the ballot.
That is sophistry.
Something that's both literally and metaphorically true, and highly relevant, is not "sophistry". No Deal was not on the ballot paper, and didn't form a mainstream part of the Leave offering. In fact, they went to some trouble to assure us that a deal would be forthcoming, beneficial, risk-free, and fast. That turned out not to be true, which is why some *Leave* voters are saying this is not what we signed up for.
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
You'd do nothing of the sort.
I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
Im really sure you cant!!
He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.
But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.
Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
The army will be fine and loyal and I'm looking forward to seeing you in the big cardboard boat in Oxford Circus.
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
Loving that final sentence, as toothless a threat as ever was uttered.
And what is all this shit about belief in democracy, when we are talking about the demagogic nonsense which a referendum actually is? If you like direct democracy there may be countries you could emigrate to where they have it, though i don't know of any. This one is a sort of oligarchic monarchy with a democratic trim to it, and the referendum is an unwanted intrusion introduced into public life by those chancers Wilson and Cameron to further their own ends. So enough of the Did Magna Carta die in vain bollocks.
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
You'd do nothing of the sort.
I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
Im really sure you cant!!
He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.
But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.
Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
The army will be fine and loyal and I'm looking forward to seeing you in the big cardboard boat in Oxford Circus.
There was almost a military coup against Harold Wilson let alone Corbyn
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
Quite a surprise given the Tories and BP combined is just 43% .
The wording on the question is so vague you cannot gauge peoples responses from the answer. I dont think anyone actually wants a 3 month extension, everyone wants their preferred solution implemented asap.
Some people are answering no because they think Brexit shouldnt be happening. Others are answering no because they want a soft Brexit implemented now. Some will be answering no because they think the EU should give way. Many will approve of the PMs stance. Aggregating all these together in an unknown mix is completely pointless and poor polling.
The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...
There's no evidence of that from the headline numbers in the opinion polls. The Conservative + Brexit Party aggregate is steady in the range 44-49% so if the Tories have lost some moderate Remain support it has been balanced by Leavers leaving Labour in the other direction.
I wish it were otherwise, but I don't see it.
How many seats for the BXP do you think (assuming the latest random number generator / poll is right)
Well there's no reason particularly to use the latest polls. At the 2015GE UKIP received about half a million fewer votes than at 2014EU. It's probably a better guess (than the polls) that the Brexit Party will receive half a million fewer votes at 2020GE than at 2019EU - which would give them 4.75m votes.
Using the 2015GE UKIP vote as a guide my best guess would be that this could give them 3-6 MPs.
In percentage terms I think 4.75m votes would be roughly 15%, which would leave the Tories on something like 32%. Then it's a matter of whether the Remain vote is less split locally than nationally. Who can say?
Bizarre, and how does he think he can get non Tories to vote for him, given he has trapped himself into a corner where the opposition parties have both zero trust in him and can guarantee he fails on his signature pledge!
I think Johnson does want a deal. Problem is, he wants other things that are incompatible with a deal: no extension, no customs union of any kind, early FTA with Trump.. Above all to win an election with Brexit Party votes.
He has to make a choice but is not forthcoming about what his choice is. He gives the impression both of resentment that other parties don't give him what he wants so he doesn't have to make a choice and of going for No Deal at the end of the day.
Also. Conservatives are indistinguishable in polling from Brexit Party supporters these days.
Bizarre, and how does he think he can get non Tories to vote for him, given he has trapped himself into a corner where the opposition parties have both zero trust in him and can guarantee he fails on his signature pledge!
He does seem to be on an accelerated May-esque journey.
Quite a surprise given the Tories and BP combined is just 43% .
I suspect the reply to that question will be very sensitive to the way in which it's asked: (1) Do you want this whole weary Brexit business to drag on for another three months? (2) If there is a risk to food and medical supplies should more time be allowed for negotiation?
Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
If you wanted to leave, your fellow travellers in parliament had their chance to do it.
They chose not to.
No you’re wrong. Many Remain MPs were elected in a pledge to leave with a deal, and have voted against a deal three times.
They pledged to leave with a different deal.
The question was "leave" or "remain". The rest is sophistry or excuses...
We’re not talking about the referendum. We’re talking about GE2017.
Several posters (including Smithson) labour the point about 'no deal' not being on the ballot.
That is sophistry.
Something that's both literally and metaphorically true, and highly relevant, is not "sophistry". No Deal was not on the ballot paper, and didn't form a mainstream part of the Leave offering. In fact, they went to some trouble to assure us that a deal would be forthcoming, beneficial, risk-free, and fast. That turned out not to be true, which is why some *Leave* voters are saying this is not what we signed up for.
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government ots to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
You'd do nothing of the sort.
I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
Im really sure you cant!!
He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anythiing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.
But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.
Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
The army will be fine and loyal and I'm looking forward to seeing you in the big cardboard boat in Oxford Circus.
There was almost a military coup against Harold Wilson let alone Corbyn
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
And how does it compare with eve of poll in 2017 when they lost that majority?
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
You'd do nothing of the sort.
I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
Im really sure you cant!!
He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.
But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.
Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.
East Coast town voting for Brexit-supporting party shocker
Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem
Key is neither touching Jezza with a barge pole.
Sure, absolutely, but it's a bad habit of the BBC, Guardian et al. When they want to get an insight into the mindset of "real voters", they invariably go to the greatest extremes. If anywhere is going to go Labour->Conservative because of Brexit, yes, it'll be Grimsby.
That doesn't tell us a whole lot. There aren't many Grimsbys. The really interesting ones are the Watfords and High Peaks - to take the two examples quoted earlier today - because there are hundreds of seats like that. Those are where the election will be won. Not Grimsby.
What none of the polls since MPs hatched and then passed the anti-No Deal legislation seem to have shown is a Tory surge. Even the two big leads from YouGov and Opinium were more about a divided opposition than growing support for Johnson.
Unfortunately the graph on the Wikipedia opinion polls page hasn't been updated since mid-August, so it's hard to tell, but a glance at the numbers since then does seem to show a strengthening of the Tory share over that period.
As to the last week. The two YouGovs show an increase in the Tory share. Hanbury Strategy doesn't have a recent enough previous poll to make an easy comparison. The Opinium poll shows an increase in the Tory share. One ComRes had a stable Tory share, the second a decrease. Survation has a fall in the Tory share. Panelbase is like Hanbury. The Deltapoll shows a fall in the Tory share.
If you look closely, squint, mutter the right incantations and pray to almighty Bayes, you might be able to convince yourself that the more recent poll as more likely to show a fall, suggesting a temporary boost to Johnson at first, followed by a weakening as his failure sunk in, but that could simply be noise.
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
And how does it compare with eve of poll in 2017 when they lost that majority?
Survation which was more accurate in 2017 than Comres now has a bigger Tory lead than Comres
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Hyperbolic nonsense. Give your head a shake.
If public opinion has not changed then you have nothing to fear.
RT is right, gallowgate. The very act of holding another vote is an affront not only to the leave voters who won, but to the millions of remain voters who voted thinking the result would stand.
Why did you vote, gallowgate? Not 'why did you vote the way you did?'; that argument has been had ad nauseam and, well, you lost. But why did you vote? Why didn't you just tweet and PB post and tell people in the pub? You already know the answer, even if you won't admit it to yourself. Here it is. There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count. If we abandon that, however tempted we may be to do so and whatever the gains we stand to make by so doing, then all is lost. People better than either of us have suffered and died to win and protect this freedom.
If Corbyn wins the next election, it will cost most of us more than we'd lose from the very harshest of exits from the EU. Not business moved to Amsterdam or loss of 2030 turnover, actual straight-out never-get-it-back wealth destruction. But our situation will not be aided by seeking to overthrow the result of that putative election.
Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were bemoaning both the profound democratic deficit of the structures of the EU and the outright refusal of the British establishment to countenance their views on it. Do you really think it's a coincidence that this is the first vote the establishment is looking to overturn? And do you really think the grievances I outline will disappear if it is overturned?
Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it.
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
And Marie Le Pen is French President..
Laugh all you want but it is a factual statement
It’s a factual statement that Marie Le Pen is President of France?
These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.
I changed my mind on it in July 2018. Prior to that I had favoured a hard brexit, and making preparations for customs etc in Dover. Then I thought that the destruction of British interests was too high of price for the destruction of the Brexiteers.
I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.
I changed my mind on it in July 2018. Prior to that I had favoured a hard brexit, and making preparations for customs etc in Dover. Then I thought that the destruction of British interests was too high of price for the destruction of the Brexiteers.
I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
Are you in favour of Jo's new position of revocation without referendum?
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Hyperbolic nonsense. Give your head a shake.
If public opinion has not changed then you have nothing to fear.
RT is right, gallowgate. The very act of holding another vote is an affront not only to the leave voters who won, but to the millions of remain voters who voted thinking the result would stand.
Why did you vote, gallowgate? Not 'why did you vote the way you did?'; that argument has been had ad nauseam and, well, you lost. But why did you vote? Why didn't you just tweet and PB post and tell people in the pub? You already know the answer, even if you won't admit it to yourself. Here it is. There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count. If we abandon that, however tempted we may be to do so and whatever the gains we stand to make by so doing, then all is lost. People better than either of us have suffered and died to win and protect this freedom.
If Corbyn wins the next election, it will cost most of us more than we'd lose from the very harshest of exits from the EU. Not business moved to Amsterdam or loss of 2030 turnover, actual straight-out never-get-it-back wealth destruction. But our situation will not be aided by seeking to overthrow the result of that putative election.
Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were bemoaning both the profound democratic deficit of the structures of the EU and the outright refusal of the British establishment to countenance their views on it. Do you really think it's a coincidence that this is the first vote the establishment is looking to overturn? And do you really think the grievances I outline will disappear if it is overturned?
Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it.
You lost all credibility as soon as you mentioned ‘the establishment’. The cabinet has 4 people from Eton in it and most of the print media behind it. The ‘establishment’ is just as split as the rest of the country.
Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.
The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.
That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
And Marie Le Pen is French President..
Laugh all you want but it is a factual statement
It’s a factual statement that Marie Le Pen is President of France?
It is factual statement Comres had a final poll with a Tory lead of 1% in 2015 and the Tories ended up with a 7% lead
These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.
I changed my mind on it in July 2018. Prior to that I had favoured a hard brexit, and making preparations for customs etc in Dover. Then I thought that the destruction of British interests was too high of price for the destruction of the Brexiteers.
I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
Are you in favour of Jo's new position of revocation without referendum?
I haven't really looked at the detail. It is dependent on the rather unlikely event of an LD majority government. If the country had swung to the LDs to that degree, then it would have a strong democratic mandate and a referendum would be superflous.
There are other circumstances where it is reasonable, in particular if PM Swinson needs to stop the clock at the last minute.
Generally though, I think it best via a #Peoplesvote, and that is far more likely, the six million signatures on the Revoke position notwithstanding.
Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
Incidentally, can I highly recommend the 7 part series on BBC4 tonight on the secret history of the Troubles, and the programme afterwards on British Squaddies in NI. Both compelling viewing. I am old enough to remember it on the news every night, but was too young at the time to understand.
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
If there's an election Labour will get flattened with this position IMO.
People want an end to this Saga and will vote decicively to make that happen - either for the Lib-Dems (Revoke) or Con (Leave)
Labours wishy washy we'll negotiate a deal but campaign against it in a refernedum will see both sides deserting them - I also doubt many people want to face another European referendum for the rest of their lives.
All of which is why Labour won't agree to an election in November, December, January, March, June etc
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
Labour's Deal is the same WA but a much closer PD, so only the latter needs altering. The PD (and most significantly, who negotiates the next stage of FTA/CU/SM etc) is why the same WA is acceptable, provided Corbyn and Starmer negotiate the next phase.
Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
Swinson as she has made clear thinks Corbyn is just as bad as Boris and would refuse to vote for either, only someone like Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman. All the polling shows most LD voters think Corbyn is as bad as Boris too.
So if Swinson refuses to vote for Corbyn that means if the Tories win most seats even without a Tory majority or enough seats with the DUP Boris likely continues as PM until an alternative PM both the LDs and Labour can support is found
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
Agreed. Pointless too since most would campaign against it. Just pick May's deal, which is unpopular anyway, and get to it.
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
It's the opposite to what you think. May's Deal is just the prerequisite to a series of negotiations potentially lasting a decade or more. Adding CU+SM+VAT area shortcuts a lot of that negotiation. Least change is least negotiation. Simply agreeing May's Deal without a plan for the final state means no closure at all.
The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Is it because they might lose?
Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day
By asking for another election? That’s what always happens. That is normal.
There is a load of rubbish being spouted here. No one is saying you should never have another vote. What people are saying is that you implement the result of the election/referendum before you ask again. The Conservatives did not win in 1970, to be told by the Queen, "Hang on, I really don't like you Mr. Heath. Let's give it six months, have another vote just to check. In the meantime, Mr. Wilson is staying as Prime Minister."
I do not recall EEC referendum in 1978, 1981, 1984 and so on, just to check. Hell, if we're going down this route, can I please have my AV referendums for 2014 and 2017 ran please? (Calm down TSE) We need to check. We can't be sure. I demand another go at AV. In fact, I demand two goes. Of course, once I win, I'll wait 41 years before asking again. Only fair.
Asking for a free run in 80+ seats is ridiculous, 5-10 no hope seats at most.
It's an opening gambit, but he holds the upper hand - he doesnt likely care if he wins any seats, he cares about power over the tories, and he gets that if they agree or not, it's just better if they agree. And he doesnt care if no pact leads to no Brexit since that sustains his politics.
There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count
What then is the point of advisory referendums?
Salmond tried to put some sort of sensible precaution on the referendum by giving each nation in the UK a veto and was told condescendingly by Liddington "Don't worry it's only advisory"
Cameron may well have been thoroughly outsmarted by the ERG when he set up the ref but why should the country put itself through hell because he was stupid?
Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
Quite a few people, for and against the LDs, get pretty adamant Swinson would not back Corbyn. Holding the balance of power is probably a nightmare for her in that regard.
Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
Quite a few people, for and against the LDs, get pretty adamant Swinson would not back Corbyn. Holding the balance of power is probably a nightmare for her in that regard.
She would have to choose. Past performance is no guide, etc, etc,...
The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
If there's an election Labour will get flattened with this position IMO.
People want an end to this Saga and will vote decicively to make that happen - either for the Lib-Dems (Revoke) or Con (Leave)
Labours wishy washy we'll negotiate a deal but campaign against it in a refernedum will see both sides deserting them - I also doubt many people want to face another European referendum for the rest of their lives.
All of which is why Labour won't agree to an election in November, December, January, March, June etc
As I say, Labour's position is for people who want Brexit over with. I'm not sure people actually do, or at least they haven't thought this through. A Con-style Leave commits the UK to being bogged down in Brexit issues indefinitely.
You may be right that people will vote for the Conservatives/Brexit Party thinking they are getting a clean break, but are actually voting to sink further into the Brexit mire.
Comments
Not much point gaining 11% from Brexit, if you lose 9% of your own vote to the opposition.
And what is all this shit about belief in democracy, when we are talking about the demagogic nonsense which a referendum actually is? If you like direct democracy there may be countries you could emigrate to where they have it, though i don't know of any. This one is a sort of oligarchic monarchy with a democratic trim to it, and the referendum is an unwanted intrusion introduced into public life by those chancers Wilson and Cameron to further their own ends. So enough of the Did Magna Carta die in vain bollocks.
Some people are answering no because they think Brexit shouldnt be happening.
Others are answering no because they want a soft Brexit implemented now. Some will be answering no because they think the EU should give way. Many will approve of the PMs stance. Aggregating all these together in an unknown mix is completely pointless and poor polling.
Using the 2015GE UKIP vote as a guide my best guess would be that this could give them 3-6 MPs.
In percentage terms I think 4.75m votes would be roughly 15%, which would leave the Tories on something like 32%. Then it's a matter of whether the Remain vote is less split locally than nationally. Who can say?
He has to make a choice but is not forthcoming about what his choice is. He gives the impression both of resentment that other parties don't give him what he wants so he doesn't have to make a choice and of going for No Deal at the end of the day.
Also. Conservatives are indistinguishable in polling from Brexit Party supporters these days. He does seem to be on an accelerated May-esque journey.
(1) Do you want this whole weary Brexit business to drag on for another three months?
(2) If there is a risk to food and medical supplies should more time be allowed for negotiation?
Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem
That doesn't tell us a whole lot. There aren't many Grimsbys. The really interesting ones are the Watfords and High Peaks - to take the two examples quoted earlier today - because there are hundreds of seats like that. Those are where the election will be won. Not Grimsby.
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1171531068224106496?s=20
As to the last week.
The two YouGovs show an increase in the Tory share.
Hanbury Strategy doesn't have a recent enough previous poll to make an easy comparison.
The Opinium poll shows an increase in the Tory share.
One ComRes had a stable Tory share, the second a decrease.
Survation has a fall in the Tory share.
Panelbase is like Hanbury.
The Deltapoll shows a fall in the Tory share.
If you look closely, squint, mutter the right incantations and pray to almighty Bayes, you might be able to convince yourself that the more recent poll as more likely to show a fall, suggesting a temporary boost to Johnson at first, followed by a weakening as his failure sunk in, but that could simply be noise.
And Marie Le Pen is French President..
Why did you vote, gallowgate? Not 'why did you vote the way you did?'; that argument has been had ad nauseam and, well, you lost. But why did you vote? Why didn't you just tweet and PB post and tell people in the pub? You already know the answer, even if you won't admit it to yourself. Here it is. There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count. If we abandon that, however tempted we may be to do so and whatever the gains we stand to make by so doing, then all is lost. People better than either of us have suffered and died to win and protect this freedom.
If Corbyn wins the next election, it will cost most of us more than we'd lose from the very harshest of exits from the EU. Not business moved to Amsterdam or loss of 2030 turnover, actual straight-out never-get-it-back wealth destruction. But our situation will not be aided by seeking to overthrow the result of that putative election.
Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were bemoaning both the profound democratic deficit of the structures of the EU and the outright refusal of the British establishment to countenance their views on it. Do you really think it's a coincidence that this is the first vote the establishment is looking to overturn? And do you really think the grievances I outline will disappear if it is overturned?
Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it.
What position is that now?
I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
HM Treasury wasting taxpayers’ money promoting cheap plonk from Calais post Brexit.
Del Boy for Chancellor!
Wouldn't want to decide a referendum that way though.
There are other circumstances where it is reasonable, in particular if PM Swinson needs to stop the clock at the last minute.
Generally though, I think it best via a #Peoplesvote, and that is far more likely, the six million signatures on the Revoke position notwithstanding.
Jezza will go on holiday during the referendum again.
Nuke the EU if they don't cancel the Backstop.
Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.
This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
People want an end to this Saga and will vote decicively to make that happen - either for the Lib-Dems (Revoke) or Con (Leave)
Labours wishy washy we'll negotiate a deal but campaign against it in a refernedum will see both sides deserting them - I also doubt many people want to face another European referendum for the rest of their lives.
All of which is why Labour won't agree to an election in November, December, January, March, June etc
Nothing wrong with discounted wine. Lots wrong the government using public money to promote it.
So if Swinson refuses to vote for Corbyn that means if the Tories win most seats even without a Tory majority or enough seats with the DUP Boris likely continues as PM until an alternative PM both the LDs and Labour can support is found
No one is saying you should never have another vote. What people are saying is that you implement the result of the election/referendum before you ask again.
The Conservatives did not win in 1970, to be told by the Queen, "Hang on, I really don't like you Mr. Heath. Let's give it six months, have another vote just to check. In the meantime, Mr. Wilson is staying as Prime Minister."
I do not recall EEC referendum in 1978, 1981, 1984 and so on, just to check.
Hell, if we're going down this route, can I please have my AV referendums for 2014 and 2017 ran please? (Calm down TSE)
We need to check. We can't be sure. I demand another go at AV. In fact, I demand two goes.
Of course, once I win, I'll wait 41 years before asking again. Only fair.
Didn’t work.
Perfectly reasonable position, probably the right position.
The TG-HY-GIN bot will chitter and chunter no doubt.
Salmond tried to put some sort of sensible precaution on the referendum by giving each nation in the UK a veto and was told condescendingly by Liddington "Don't worry it's only advisory"
Cameron may well have been thoroughly outsmarted by the ERG when he set up the ref but why should the country put itself through hell because he was stupid?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIQ9DnADcB0
You may be right that people will vote for the Conservatives/Brexit Party thinking they are getting a clean break, but are actually voting to sink further into the Brexit mire.