Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fewer than half of Leave voters would consider a No Deal Brexi

13

Comments

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    HYUFD said:

    I assume if the Labour Party won a GE with ‘Remain’ in their manifesto you’d all accept the result when they revoked Article 50?

    No, of course not, not unless they got 18 million votes.

    Otherwise only if they implemented the result of the first referendum first
    Says it all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    You'd do nothing of the sort.
    I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
    I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
    Im really sure you cant!!
    He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.

    But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
    Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
    Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.

    Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
    Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    40 BXP MPs - which seats ?
  • HYUFD said:

    I assume if the Labour Party won a GE with ‘Remain’ in their manifesto you’d all accept the result when they revoked Article 50?

    No, of course not, not unless they got 18 million votes.

    Otherwise only if they implemented the result of the first referendum first
    Remind us how many million voted for parties with 'Leave with a Deal' in their manifesto at the 2017 GE.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    I thought the Conservative Party rules meant they had to stand everywhere? Is that not the case?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
    All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
    If you wanted to leave, your fellow travellers in parliament had their chance to do it.

    They chose not to.
    No you’re wrong. Many Remain MPs were elected in a pledge to leave with a deal, and have voted against a deal three times.
    They pledged to leave with a different deal.
    The question was "leave" or "remain". The rest is sophistry or excuses...
    We’re not talking about the referendum. We’re talking about GE2017.
    Several posters (including Smithson) labour the point about 'no deal' not being on the ballot.

    That is sophistry.
    Something that's both literally and metaphorically true, and highly relevant, is not "sophistry". No Deal was not on the ballot paper, and didn't form a mainstream part of the Leave offering. In fact, they went to some trouble to assure us that a deal would be forthcoming, beneficial, risk-free, and fast. That turned out not to be true, which is why some *Leave* voters are saying this is not what we signed up for.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    40 BXP MPs - which seats ?

    The ones BoZo would need for a majority
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    You'd do nothing of the sort.
    I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
    I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
    Im really sure you cant!!
    He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.

    But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
    Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
    Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.

    Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
    Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
    The army will be fine and loyal and I'm looking forward to seeing you in the big cardboard boat in Oxford Circus.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Scott_P said:
    So the obvious question is what the 31% of Conservatives who don't think that's a good idea, would do.

    Not much point gaining 11% from Brexit, if you lose 9% of your own vote to the opposition.
  • Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF said:
    Quite a surprise given the Tories and BP combined is just 43% .

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    Loving that final sentence, as toothless a threat as ever was uttered.

    And what is all this shit about belief in democracy, when we are talking about the demagogic nonsense which a referendum actually is? If you like direct democracy there may be countries you could emigrate to where they have it, though i don't know of any. This one is a sort of oligarchic monarchy with a democratic trim to it, and the referendum is an unwanted intrusion introduced into public life by those chancers Wilson and Cameron to further their own ends. So enough of the Did Magna Carta die in vain bollocks.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Scott_P said:
    :D F*ck me this soap opera just goes on and on. What exactly is the plan here? I thought Dom had everything wargamed?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    You'd do nothing of the sort.
    I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
    I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
    Im really sure you cant!!
    He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.

    But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
    Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
    Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.

    Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
    Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
    The army will be fine and loyal and I'm looking forward to seeing you in the big cardboard boat in Oxford Circus.
    There was almost a military coup against Harold Wilson let alone Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    Grimsby looks to be going Tory on Newsnight
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Scott_P said:
    And if those 80-90 include - say - 40 that the Tories would hope to win, and if the Brexit Party doesn't win them ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    edited September 2019

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
  • nico67 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Quite a surprise given the Tories and BP combined is just 43% .

    The wording on the question is so vague you cannot gauge peoples responses from the answer. I dont think anyone actually wants a 3 month extension, everyone wants their preferred solution implemented asap.

    Some people are answering no because they think Brexit shouldnt be happening.
    Others are answering no because they want a soft Brexit implemented now. Some will be answering no because they think the EU should give way. Many will approve of the PMs stance. Aggregating all these together in an unknown mix is completely pointless and poor polling.
  • The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...

    There's no evidence of that from the headline numbers in the opinion polls. The Conservative + Brexit Party aggregate is steady in the range 44-49% so if the Tories have lost some moderate Remain support it has been balanced by Leavers leaving Labour in the other direction.

    I wish it were otherwise, but I don't see it.
    How many seats for the BXP do you think (assuming the latest random number generator / poll is right)
    Well there's no reason particularly to use the latest polls. At the 2015GE UKIP received about half a million fewer votes than at 2014EU. It's probably a better guess (than the polls) that the Brexit Party will receive half a million fewer votes at 2020GE than at 2019EU - which would give them 4.75m votes.

    Using the 2015GE UKIP vote as a guide my best guess would be that this could give them 3-6 MPs.

    In percentage terms I think 4.75m votes would be roughly 15%, which would leave the Tories on something like 32%. Then it's a matter of whether the Remain vote is less split locally than nationally. Who can say?
  • Scott_P said:
    Bizarre, and how does he think he can get non Tories to vote for him, given he has trapped himself into a corner where the opposition parties have both zero trust in him and can guarantee he fails on his signature pledge!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264

    Scott_P said:
    :D F*ck me this soap opera just goes on and on. What exactly is the plan here? I thought Dom had everything wargamed?
    Just more NI only backstop talk denied by Number 10
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited September 2019
    I think Johnson does want a deal. Problem is, he wants other things that are incompatible with a deal: no extension, no customs union of any kind, early FTA with Trump.. Above all to win an election with Brexit Party votes.

    He has to make a choice but is not forthcoming about what his choice is. He gives the impression both of resentment that other parties don't give him what he wants so he doesn't have to make a choice and of going for No Deal at the end of the day.

    Also. Conservatives are indistinguishable in polling from Brexit Party supporters these days.

    Scott_P said:
    Bizarre, and how does he think he can get non Tories to vote for him, given he has trapped himself into a corner where the opposition parties have both zero trust in him and can guarantee he fails on his signature pledge!
    He does seem to be on an accelerated May-esque journey.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    nico67 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Quite a surprise given the Tories and BP combined is just 43% .

    I suspect the reply to that question will be very sensitive to the way in which it's asked:
    (1) Do you want this whole weary Brexit business to drag on for another three months?
    (2) If there is a risk to food and medical supplies should more time be allowed for negotiation?
  • Noo said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
    All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
    If you wanted to leave, your fellow travellers in parliament had their chance to do it.

    They chose not to.
    No you’re wrong. Many Remain MPs were elected in a pledge to leave with a deal, and have voted against a deal three times.
    They pledged to leave with a different deal.
    The question was "leave" or "remain". The rest is sophistry or excuses...
    We’re not talking about the referendum. We’re talking about GE2017.
    Several posters (including Smithson) labour the point about 'no deal' not being on the ballot.

    That is sophistry.
    Something that's both literally and metaphorically true, and highly relevant, is not "sophistry". No Deal was not on the ballot paper, and didn't form a mainstream part of the Leave offering. In fact, they went to some trouble to assure us that a deal would be forthcoming, beneficial, risk-free, and fast. That turned out not to be true, which is why some *Leave* voters are saying this is not what we signed up for.
    We were deceived by a lie. We all were.
  • TGOHF said:

    Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.

    East Coast town voting for Brexit-supporting party shocker

    Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government ots to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    You'd do nothing of the sort.
    I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
    I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
    Im really sure you cant!!
    He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anythiing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.

    But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
    Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
    Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.

    Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
    Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
    The army will be fine and loyal and I'm looking forward to seeing you in the big cardboard boat in Oxford Circus.
    There was almost a military coup against Harold Wilson let alone Corbyn
    No there wasn't.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    And how does it compare with eve of poll in 2017 when they lost that majority?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    Do what?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.

    East Coast town voting for Brexit-supporting party shocker

    Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem

    TGOHF said:

    Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.

    East Coast town voting for Brexit-supporting party shocker

    Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem
    Key is neither touching Jezza with a barge pole.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government of this country even if it won enough seats to form a government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day as would most of the right I suspect. It would be as close to all out war as we get in peacetime
    You'd do nothing of the sort.
    I cant speak for HYUFD but im not sure either that you can speak for what others who voted leave might or might not do...
    I'm sure I can speak for him. He'd do nothing of the sort.
    Im really sure you cant!!
    He's not going to begin hard headed resistance to anything any more than continuing to leaflet locally as per usual albeit perhaps for the Brexit party instead of the Conservatives.

    But wait. Let him tell us what this hard headed resistance comprises.
    Taking to the streets en masse for starters, refusing to comply with any laws passed by a Corbyn government etc
    Refusing to comply with any law Corbyn passed? LOL. You would comply with every law passed.

    Knock yourself out and march to Trafalgar Square though if you want.
    Not necessarily if refusal is done en masse and of course I doubt the army will be too enamoured of Corbyn either
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ-9R6NCZ0A
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.

    East Coast town voting for Brexit-supporting party shocker

    Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem

    TGOHF said:

    Newsnight in Grimsby - interviewing LOTS of ex Labour voters voting Tory.

    East Coast town voting for Brexit-supporting party shocker

    Next week, we reveal that some people in Oxford and Cambridge might consider voting Lib Dem
    Key is neither touching Jezza with a barge pole.
    Sure, absolutely, but it's a bad habit of the BBC, Guardian et al. When they want to get an insight into the mindset of "real voters", they invariably go to the greatest extremes. If anywhere is going to go Labour->Conservative because of Brexit, yes, it'll be Grimsby.

    That doesn't tell us a whole lot. There aren't many Grimsbys. The really interesting ones are the Watfords and High Peaks - to take the two examples quoted earlier today - because there are hundreds of seats like that. Those are where the election will be won. Not Grimsby.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?
  • ‪What none of the polls since MPs hatched and then passed the anti-No Deal legislation seem to have shown is a Tory surge. Even the two big leads from YouGov and Opinium were more about a divided opposition than growing support for Johnson.‬

    Unfortunately the graph on the Wikipedia opinion polls page hasn't been updated since mid-August, so it's hard to tell, but a glance at the numbers since then does seem to show a strengthening of the Tory share over that period.

    As to the last week.
    The two YouGovs show an increase in the Tory share.
    Hanbury Strategy doesn't have a recent enough previous poll to make an easy comparison.
    The Opinium poll shows an increase in the Tory share.
    One ComRes had a stable Tory share, the second a decrease.
    Survation has a fall in the Tory share.
    Panelbase is like Hanbury.
    The Deltapoll shows a fall in the Tory share.

    If you look closely, squint, mutter the right incantations and pray to almighty Bayes, you might be able to convince yourself that the more recent poll as more likely to show a fall, suggesting a temporary boost to Johnson at first, followed by a weakening as his failure sunk in, but that could simply be noise.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha


    And Marie Le Pen is French President..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha


    And Marie Le Pen is French President..
    Laugh all you want but it is a factual statement
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha


    And Marie Le Pen is French President..
    Laugh all you want but it is a factual statement
    From you, that's something at least.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    And how does it compare with eve of poll in 2017 when they lost that majority?
    Survation which was more accurate in 2017 than Comres now has a bigger Tory lead than Comres
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?
    But it was ok for remain pre referendum?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Hyperbolic nonsense. Give your head a shake.

    If public opinion has not changed then you have nothing to fear.
    RT is right, gallowgate. The very act of holding another vote is an affront not only to the leave voters who won, but to the millions of remain voters who voted thinking the result would stand.

    Why did you vote, gallowgate? Not 'why did you vote the way you did?'; that argument has been had ad nauseam and, well, you lost. But why did you vote? Why didn't you just tweet and PB post and tell people in the pub? You already know the answer, even if you won't admit it to yourself. Here it is. There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count. If we abandon that, however tempted we may be to do so and whatever the gains we stand to make by so doing, then all is lost. People better than either of us have suffered and died to win and protect this freedom.

    If Corbyn wins the next election, it will cost most of us more than we'd lose from the very harshest of exits from the EU. Not business moved to Amsterdam or loss of 2030 turnover, actual straight-out never-get-it-back wealth destruction. But our situation will not be aided by seeking to overthrow the result of that putative election.

    Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were bemoaning both the profound democratic deficit of the structures of the EU and the outright refusal of the British establishment to countenance their views on it. Do you really think it's a coincidence that this is the first vote the establishment is looking to overturn? And do you really think the grievances I outline will disappear if it is overturned?

    Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha


    And Marie Le Pen is French President..
    Laugh all you want but it is a factual statement
    It’s a factual statement that Marie Le Pen is President of France?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    CatMan said:

    These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.

    I changed my mind on it in July 2018. Prior to that I had favoured a hard brexit, and making preparations for customs etc in Dover. Then I thought that the destruction of British interests was too high of price for the destruction of the Brexiteers.

    I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?

    HM Treasury wasting taxpayers’ money promoting cheap plonk from Calais post Brexit.

    Del Boy for Chancellor!
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?
    If you want purdah, we'll need an election...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Foxy said:

    CatMan said:

    These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.

    I changed my mind on it in July 2018. Prior to that I had favoured a hard brexit, and making preparations for customs etc in Dover. Then I thought that the destruction of British interests was too high of price for the destruction of the Brexiteers.

    I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
    Are you in favour of Jo's new position of revocation without referendum?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?

    HM Treasury wasting taxpayers’ money promoting cheap plonk from Calais post Brexit.

    Del Boy for Chancellor!
    How dare the proles have cheap wine !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    A free vote is a very reasonable position. It is what happened in Wilson's 1975 referendum, and in Cameron's 2016 one for the Tory party.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Drutt said:

    nico67 said:
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Hyperbolic nonsense. Give your head a shake.

    If public opinion has not changed then you have nothing to fear.
    RT is right, gallowgate. The very act of holding another vote is an affront not only to the leave voters who won, but to the millions of remain voters who voted thinking the result would stand.

    Why did you vote, gallowgate? Not 'why did you vote the way you did?'; that argument has been had ad nauseam and, well, you lost. But why did you vote? Why didn't you just tweet and PB post and tell people in the pub? You already know the answer, even if you won't admit it to yourself. Here it is. There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count. If we abandon that, however tempted we may be to do so and whatever the gains we stand to make by so doing, then all is lost. People better than either of us have suffered and died to win and protect this freedom.

    If Corbyn wins the next election, it will cost most of us more than we'd lose from the very harshest of exits from the EU. Not business moved to Amsterdam or loss of 2030 turnover, actual straight-out never-get-it-back wealth destruction. But our situation will not be aided by seeking to overthrow the result of that putative election.

    Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were bemoaning both the profound democratic deficit of the structures of the EU and the outright refusal of the British establishment to countenance their views on it. Do you really think it's a coincidence that this is the first vote the establishment is looking to overturn? And do you really think the grievances I outline will disappear if it is overturned?

    Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it.
    You lost all credibility as soon as you mentioned ‘the establishment’. The cabinet has 4 people from Eton in it and most of the print media behind it. The ‘establishment’ is just as split as the rest of the country.
  • Drutt said:

    There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count.

    You're evidently lucky enough to live in a FPTP swing seat, then. Many of us aren't.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    What seat do Brexit Party win?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    What seat do Brexit Party win?
    Great Yarmouth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1171529365848379393

    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...

    As ever, best to look at the No Deal/anti-No Deal party split, rather than the individual party scores IMO. This poll is at the top end for the anti-No Dealers, but within the regular range.

    The Tory+Brexit and Lab+LD+Green totals are virtually unchanged since the last poll, but there has been a movement to Labour.

    That’s pretty much my point. On the big picture nothing much has changed - all pollsters show this. What seems unknowable right now is how that will play out in a GE. Which of the two blocs will have a more motivated, more geographically efficient vote? The Tory path to a majority still looks the easiest, but there has clearly been no surge to them in the last week or so, contrary to many expectations.
    The Tory lead with Comres tonight is exactly the same 1% margin they had with Comres on eve of poll in 2015 before they won a majority
    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha


    And Marie Le Pen is French President..
    Laugh all you want but it is a factual statement
    It’s a factual statement that Marie Le Pen is President of France?
    It is factual statement Comres had a final poll with a Tory lead of 1% in 2015 and the Tories ended up with a 7% lead
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
  • Drutt said:

    There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count.

    You're evidently lucky enough to live in a FPTP swing seat, then. Many of us aren't.
    Using FPTP every vote is counted, but very few votes count. Using the Single Stochastic Vote, very few votes are counted, but every vote counts.

    Wouldn't want to decide a referendum that way though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Danny565 said:

    Foxy said:

    CatMan said:

    These "Should there be a 2nd referendum" arguments really are pointless. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly change their mind about it on here.

    I changed my mind on it in July 2018. Prior to that I had favoured a hard brexit, and making preparations for customs etc in Dover. Then I thought that the destruction of British interests was too high of price for the destruction of the Brexiteers.

    I note a number of others here have come round to the idea also. Minds do change on other issues too, including my own on gay marriage.
    Are you in favour of Jo's new position of revocation without referendum?
    I haven't really looked at the detail. It is dependent on the rather unlikely event of an LD majority government. If the country had swung to the LDs to that degree, then it would have a strong democratic mandate and a referendum would be superflous.

    There are other circumstances where it is reasonable, in particular if PM Swinson needs to stop the clock at the last minute.

    Generally though, I think it best via a #Peoplesvote, and that is far more likely, the six million signatures on the Revoke position notwithstanding.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    What seat do Brexit Party win?
    Thurrock. That's based on the (admittedly uncertain) assumption of applying UNS to UKIP's 2017 figures to Brexit Party's current polling.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Floater said:


    What position is that now?

    Negotiate a deal, referendum, cabinet members then free to campaign for both sides.

    Jezza will go on holiday during the referendum again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    TGOHF said:
    He will never agree to an election so there will never be an election in which to campaign for Remain in. :D
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Johnson should appoint John Boulton.

    Nuke the EU if they don't cancel the Backstop.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Andrew said:

    Floater said:


    What position is that now?

    Negotiate a deal, referendum, cabinet members then free to campaign for both sides.

    Jezza will go on holiday during the referendum again.
    Swinson wins it for Leave
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
    You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Drutt said:

    There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count.

    You're evidently lucky enough to live in a FPTP swing seat, then. Many of us aren't.
    Using FPTP every vote is counted, but very few votes count. Using the Single Stochastic Vote, very few votes are counted, but every vote counts.

    Wouldn't want to decide a referendum that way though.
    Although No Deal/Revoke by coin toss would be a blessed relief to many. Maybe Ant and Dec could do a Saturday night 2 hour special.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Incidentally, can I highly recommend the 7 part series on BBC4 tonight on the secret history of the Troubles, and the programme afterwards on British Squaddies in NI. Both compelling viewing. I am old enough to remember it on the news every night, but was too young at the time to understand.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FF43 said:

    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
    IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    FF43 said:

    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
    If there's an election Labour will get flattened with this position IMO.

    People want an end to this Saga and will vote decicively to make that happen - either for the Lib-Dems (Revoke) or Con (Leave)

    Labours wishy washy we'll negotiate a deal but campaign against it in a refernedum will see both sides deserting them - I also doubt many people want to face another European referendum for the rest of their lives.

    All of which is why Labour won't agree to an election in November, December, January, March, June etc :D
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?

    HM Treasury wasting taxpayers’ money promoting cheap plonk from Calais post Brexit.

    Del Boy for Chancellor!
    How dare the proles have cheap wine !
    Proles? Dear me.

    Nothing wrong with discounted wine. Lots wrong the government using public money to promote it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Scott_P said:
    That was predictable a year ago. Labour as a whole will overwhelmingly campaign on one side and corbyn can softball it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Danny565 said:

    FF43 said:

    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
    IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
    Labour's Deal is the same WA but a much closer PD, so only the latter needs altering. The PD (and most significantly, who negotiates the next stage of FTA/CU/SM etc) is why the same WA is acceptable, provided Corbyn and Starmer negotiate the next phase.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    edited September 2019
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
    You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
    Swinson as she has made clear thinks Corbyn is just as bad as Boris and would refuse to vote for either, only someone like Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman. All the polling shows most LD voters think Corbyn is as bad as Boris too.

    So if Swinson refuses to vote for Corbyn that means if the Tories win most seats even without a Tory majority or enough seats with the DUP Boris likely continues as PM until an alternative PM both the LDs and Labour can support is found
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Danny565 said:

    FF43 said:

    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
    IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
    Agreed. Pointless too since most would campaign against it. Just pick May's deal, which is unpopular anyway, and get to it.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121

    Drutt said:

    There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count.

    You're evidently lucky enough to live in a FPTP swing seat, then. Many of us aren't.
    I'm posting from a seat with a 37000+ majority. It swung LD to LAB in 2015. FPTP makes for safe seats and inefficient vote shares, until it doesn't.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Danny565 said:

    FF43 said:

    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
    IMO, Labour should just offer May's deal as the Leave option in a referendum (to be held within a year of Labour being elected). The idea of this dragging on for years more, as Labour do a full-blown renegotiation, is not going to be an easy sell.
    It's the opposite to what you think. May's Deal is just the prerequisite to a series of negotiations potentially lasting a decade or more. Adding CU+SM+VAT area shortcuts a lot of that negotiation. Least change is least negotiation. Simply agreeing May's Deal without a plan for the final state means no closure at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?
    Government promotes government policy is a story?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:
    Blatant use of government funds to promote a contentious political policy? How in the name of God is that allowed?

    HM Treasury wasting taxpayers’ money promoting cheap plonk from Calais post Brexit.

    Del Boy for Chancellor!
    How dare the proles have cheap wine !
    Proles? Dear me.

    Nothing wrong with discounted wine. Lots wrong the government using public money to promote it.
    The govt promoting retail at LHR is a bad thing ?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Why should you accept a democratic vote again? I for one would refuse to accept a Corbyn government as the legitimate Government and would begin hard headed resistance the very next day
    By asking for another election? That’s what always happens. That is normal.
    There is a load of rubbish being spouted here.
    No one is saying you should never have another vote. What people are saying is that you implement the result of the election/referendum before you ask again.
    The Conservatives did not win in 1970, to be told by the Queen, "Hang on, I really don't like you Mr. Heath. Let's give it six months, have another vote just to check. In the meantime, Mr. Wilson is staying as Prime Minister."

    I do not recall EEC referendum in 1978, 1981, 1984 and so on, just to check.
    Hell, if we're going down this route, can I please have my AV referendums for 2014 and 2017 ran please? (Calm down TSE)
    We need to check. We can't be sure. I demand another go at AV. In fact, I demand two goes.
    Of course, once I win, I'll wait 41 years before asking again. Only fair.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count.

    You're evidently lucky enough to live in a FPTP swing seat, then. Many of us aren't.
    Using FPTP every vote is counted, but very few votes count. Using the Single Stochastic Vote, very few votes are counted, but every vote counts.

    Wouldn't want to decide a referendum that way though.
    No Deal/Revoke by coin toss would be a blessed relief to many.
    We tried that in 2016.

    Didn’t work.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Asking for a free run in 80+ seats is ridiculous, 5-10 no hope seats at most.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Artist said:

    Asking for a free run in 80+ seats is ridiculous, 5-10 no hope seats at most.

    It's an opening gambit, but he holds the upper hand - he doesnt likely care if he wins any seats, he cares about power over the tories, and he gets that if they agree or not, it's just better if they agree. And he doesnt care if no pact leads to no Brexit since that sustains his politics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That was predictable a year ago. Labour as a whole will overwhelmingly campaign on one side and corbyn can softball it.

    Perfectly reasonable position, probably the right position.

    The TG-HY-GIN bot will chitter and chunter no doubt.
  • timpletimple Posts: 123
    There are two parts to democracy; we always count the votes, and the votes always count
    What then is the point of advisory referendums?

    Salmond tried to put some sort of sensible precaution on the referendum by giving each nation in the UK a veto and was told condescendingly by Liddington "Don't worry it's only advisory"

    Cameron may well have been thoroughly outsmarted by the ERG when he set up the ref but why should the country put itself through hell because he was stupid?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
    You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
    Quite a few people, for and against the LDs, get pretty adamant Swinson would not back Corbyn. Holding the balance of power is probably a nightmare for her in that regard.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1

    Jezza is PM on those numbers IMO
    Swinson would hold the balance of power and veto him
    You keep saying that. What evidence is there for that statement? Would she support Boris? Because, if she doesn't, and she would have to carry her party, remember, not just MPs, then she wouldn't be vetoing anything.
    Quite a few people, for and against the LDs, get pretty adamant Swinson would not back Corbyn. Holding the balance of power is probably a nightmare for her in that regard.
    She would have to choose. Past performance is no guide, etc, etc,...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    5 years ago Nick Clegg described Dominic Cummings as "loopy".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIQ9DnADcB0
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    GIN1138 said:

    FF43 said:

    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:
    LMAO - oh priceless

    What position is that now?
    The Labour Brexit policy could work, whereas Johnson's, to the extent we know what it is, definitely won't.

    Recognising Brexit is bogged down at the same 50/50 as the referendum result, the new Labour government offers the Remain option along with the best Leave option to the public for final decision. The Labour government will happily implement whichever the public decides. "Best" Leave option is the one that causes the least disruption, is rapidly implementable, and meets obligations to Northern Ireland.

    This policy is for the situation where the public wants to get Brexit over with and move onto other things.
    If there's an election Labour will get flattened with this position IMO.

    People want an end to this Saga and will vote decicively to make that happen - either for the Lib-Dems (Revoke) or Con (Leave)

    Labours wishy washy we'll negotiate a deal but campaign against it in a refernedum will see both sides deserting them - I also doubt many people want to face another European referendum for the rest of their lives.

    All of which is why Labour won't agree to an election in November, December, January, March, June etc :D
    As I say, Labour's position is for people who want Brexit over with. I'm not sure people actually do, or at least they haven't thought this through. A Con-style Leave commits the UK to being bogged down in Brexit issues indefinitely.

    You may be right that people will vote for the Conservatives/Brexit Party thinking they are getting a clean break, but are actually voting to sink further into the Brexit mire.
This discussion has been closed.