Anyone hear the spokesman from Zanu describe Mugabe's death as 'untimely'?
I once attended a funeral service where there was lots of really unsettlingly weird behaviour - vestal virgins, guitars, acrobats, God knows what. Forced to make a positive comment for the press I described the occasion as "memorable".
“Jesus Christ, the son of a carpenter, died at a tragically young age”
In those times 34/36 was a good age - top end of average life expectancy!
Slightly misleading due to higher infant mortality surely?
Anyone hear the spokesman from Zanu describe Mugabe's death as 'untimely'?
I once attended a funeral service where there was lots of really unsettlingly weird behaviour - vestal virgins, guitars, acrobats, God knows what. Forced to make a positive comment for the press I described the occasion as "memorable".
“Jesus Christ, the son of a carpenter, died at a tragically young age”
In those times 34/36 was a good age - top end of average life expectancy!
Slightly misleading due to higher infant mortality surely?
By any contemporary measure 36 was not “tragically young”. Some of his contemporaries would have been grandparents.
Didnt think he was tragically young, just that mid 30s not quite at the top end if youd expect them to reach mid 50s once past childhood.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
Is there not a potential flip side on a post nov election, though(assuming extension is enacted)? Which is that anti-no deal Tories may be more inclined to vote Tory in this scenario?
How? Boris is going to have to go for No Deal just to avoid Farage kicking him daily.
Boris will refuse to extend, as Peston reported yesterday he will either stay in post and challenge the Commons to impeach him rather than ask Brussels for an extension or resign and let Corbyn do the extension and thus destroy Labour in Labour Leave seats for betraying the Brexit vote as Swinson immediately VONCs Corbyn straight after extension to force a general election
You expect Swinson to be LotO?
Without Swinson Corbyn cannot become PM and she can stop him staying PM too post extension, Swinson not Corbyn holds the real power in the opposition now a long with Blackford and Hammond on the Government side
Only the LotO can VONC. Swinson will not be the LotO - Johnson’s successor will.
Why would Johnson have a successor?
Johnson would be LotO.
If the Conservatives are in opposition you think he’ll still be leader?
If they haven't lost an election yet and are still preparing for one, yes absolutely!
Corbyn didn't resign when he lost an election, why would Boris resign before getting his election?
This is the Speakers ruling, still valid, in relation to the "Queen's Consent" from the recent Cooper Benn bill :
"As the House will recall, no Queen’s Consent was required for the contents of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill, which was introduced in January 2017 after the UK Supreme Court decision in the Miller case. My ruling is that as no prerogative consent was required for the Bill in 2017 giving parliamentary authority to the Prime Minister to take action under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, there is no requirement for new and separate prerogative consent to be sought for legislation in 2019 on what further action the Prime Minister should take under the same Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union."
The Speaker's ruling IMHO is not valid for the new bill because there is a major distinction between the prior bills and this bill.
The original notification bill gave authority to notify to the PM but left the decision whether to notify or not to the PM in her role using royal prerogative. The bill did not instruct the PM that she had to notify.
Similarly the prior extension request left the decision on whether to accept an extension in the hands of the PM, she was not compelled to accept.
This bill unlike any prior precedent in this chain compels the PM to accept the extension and gives all choice to Parliament like the bill Blair vetoed under royal consent regarding the Iraq War.
The government has not disputed the Speakers ruling. End of.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
Winning may not be the point. It might be to stop the tories winning, although in many of those seats that would still be a difficult thing to achieve.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
Cummings may be a tool but this was priced in after he ran amok at Education. Where were the politicians? Why did Boris or the Cabinet or anyone apply any political judgement?
Remember the omnishambles budget, which Damian McBride (whose position as most reviled wonk ever has been usurped by Cummings) revealed was chock-full of measures the Treasury put up every year but were knocked back as being politically toxic. It is the same thing.
As grandpa Churchill said of scientists, advisors should be on tap, not on top.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
I think they Cummings [and Boris and Grieve etc] all knew exactly what they were doing.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die. Even had there been an election now and the Tories won a small majority, they could have still caused problems.
The rotten apples have been removed now and if there's an election and Boris wins a majority he can implement his policy. There will be no Grieve sitting on the government benches after the election if Boris wins.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
No chance, some decent news for Boris. It's important for the country to see that Boris's actions are legit and Gina Miller etc are the ones who are trying to pick away at democracy.
Winning may not be the point. It might be to stop the tories winning, although in many of those seats that would still be a difficult thing to achieve.
Most people absolubtely do not know or care which MP they're electing. I remember ( @rcs1000 niece? I think it was) voting Labour in err... Vauxhall to "stop Brexit".
I'm not saying there aren't good or bad MPs, there clearly are but the rosette is ~95-99% of whether they'll get elected or not.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
If the opposition stand aside then perhaps but from a small c conservative perspective it guarantees a fiscal conservative in parliament who will almost certainly back Tory policy Brexit aside
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
I can't see Clarke standing again.
I think he had already said this would be his last term.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Looks like No Deal is off the table. Probably forever. Because a new, majority Boris govt would avoid No Deal, and use the extra power and time to do something different, and a minority Boris govt would be hemmed in by parliament.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I'd be surprised if any did, tbh. But while Patrick O'Flynn and other Leavers are banking on them splitting the Remain vote and taking Lab/LibDem votes, I think they're just as likely to split the Tory vote. By definition, their personal vote will all come from the Con column last time round. And most Labs/LDs would see the opportunity of giving the Tories a kicking rather than switching.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
I can't see Clarke standing again.
I think he had already said this would be his last term.
He said that before the previous election and changed his mind.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
No chance, some decent news for Boris. It's important for the country to see that Boris's actions are legit and Gina Miller etc are the ones who are trying to pick away at democracy.
And to establish that Conservatives will have no objection to a Labour government proroguing parliament for five years while Jeremy Corbyn nationalises jam factories from his prime ministerial dacha in Venezuela.
Brexit is one of those issues where you just can’t afford nuance, let alone fudge. It’s polarising. It’s like being in favour of committing suicide, or against it. “Well we might ask the nation to kill itself, we’re not sure. Depends whether we have a noose.”
This works both ways. Remainers think Brexit is economic suicide. Leavers think No Brexit is cultural/political suicide.
Labour have about a week to sort this out, or they could be facing electoral suicide.
Disagree. At the moment they just need to be more reasonable than the other side. Which they are.
Under May, there was a clear Brexit policy. Vote for the WA, that is Brexit. That was sensible, and the labour position was muddled.
Now the labour position still has large issues, but its somewhat workable, but the tories isn't.
So Labour are in a better position.
What is Labour’s official position on Brexit then? I don’t know. Genuinely. And I’m a politics geek. And if I don’t know I suggest 98% of Brits don’t know, including Jeremy Corbyn Esq of London N1, which is a terrible place to be when you’re going into an election which will be consumed with Brexit
I’m assuming the Labour conference will throw up some bantz in this regard.
TBH the people unhappy with Labour 2nd referendum position in the party are generally leavers given it was remainers (mostly) who pushed for the position.
Although the reason Labour moved is because the latter is bigger and more powerful than the former. So I don't think there will be that much fuss.
It is not really a policy designed to appeal to people like SeanT...
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
that is far too sensible to appeal to the headbangers at either end of the debate. I would prefer that the whole sorry charade had never happened, but it has. I would be very happy with what you have described, it is the common sense solution.
Which would tend to suggest they think Johnson has stretched prorogation to its absolute limits, and they need to establish those limits in law PDQ ?
Yes. If he can prorogue for 5 weeks, he can do it for 5 months or 5 years.
There is no political route to prevent that. There ought to be a legal one.
So the perfectly normal system of prorogation that normally happens every year and has been legally applied here needs supreme court intervention because people think Boris Johnson might be Loki in disguise?
It's just possible that people might think it's being abused as a way of closing down Parliamentary debate.
Possibly due to the fact that prorogations of Parliament outside of dissolutions for an election tend to last between 3 and 5 calendar days, with a median of 4 calendar days and have sometimes lasted for 0 calendar days. Only twice since 1930 have they ever gone into double figures in days (12 and 20) and the 20 day one was over Easter. One lasting for 31 calendar days is, outside of a General Election dissolution, unheard of in living memory.
And, in addition, the abuse of a uniquely extended prorogation was being discussed repeatedly during the Conservative Leadership election campaign as a tactic to shut down Parliamentary scrutiny - but fortunately Boris and others agreed that it would be unacceptable and wouldn't us it.
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
In many ways it would have been better if she had lost the big one a couple of years go. We would have been out on time and under the WA if she had. We would now be in transition (all peaceful and stable) and our top top team of negotiators would be cracking on with nailing down that all important future relationship.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
I can't see Clarke standing again.
I think he had already said this would be his last term.
He said that before the previous election and changed his mind.
Sure, but he had a party machine to do a lot of the campaigning work and the rosette vote. Not now.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
And it is what parliament would vote for if the leaderships of the two main parties gave MPs a free vote.
Can anyone really think either the Tory & Labour parties have done well from this stand off? If the party leaderships just stand aside they can go back to being a two party state with far less damage to the country than we are seeing now.
Which would tend to suggest they think Johnson has stretched prorogation to its absolute limits, and they need to establish those limits in law PDQ ?
Yes. If he can prorogue for 5 weeks, he can do it for 5 months or 5 years.
There is no political route to prevent that. There ought to be a legal one.
And if there isn't? There perhaps ought to be laws on many things.
Parliament has to meet at least once in the year, and a Bill has to be enacted - Triennial Act and Septennial Act so prorogation cannot be for more than about 10 months.
AFAIK, the FTPA repealed the Septennial Act in its entirety. (The Triennial Act was repealed well before.)
Parliament has to pass at least one Finance Act every year to set a budget and reauthorize some taxes. There’s also the Armed Forces Act that renews the legal basis of the services only lasts five years with the next being due in 2021.
Looks like No Deal is off the table. Probably forever. Because a new, majority Boris govt would avoid No Deal, and use the extra power and time to do something different, and a minority Boris govt would be hemmed in by parliament.
For those wanting to avoid No Deal this game playing could go horribly wrong if the Brexit Party really take off during an election campaign and finish up holding the balance of power in a Hung Parliament.
Westminster is playing Russian Roulette with the electorate again... It could very easily blow up in their faces.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
No chance, some decent news for Boris. It's important for the country to see that Boris's actions are legit and Gina Miller etc are the ones who are trying to pick away at democracy.
She is trying to defend something that defends our freedoms more than democracy itself. It is called the rule of law. It is the one thing we should cherish more than anything else.
There are some voters who will never vote Tory. Anyone who wants Brexit and is prepared to accept the Tories will vote Tory. BXP will attract voters who want Brexit but hate the Tories. Better they vote BXP than Labour.
Interesting to consider that all of this was caused by greedy bankers in 2008 who were annoyed that the person sitting next to them in the office might be getting a bigger bonus than they were. People like this:
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
Generally I agree. The only issue would be with the Customs Union. We cannot stay in 'The' Customs Union as that requires EU membership. But being in 'A' customs union like Turkey would be an utter disaster as it would leave us exposed to one sided tariff free trade. Any country with an FTA with the EU would be able to export to the UK tariff free but we would not have reciprocal rights.
Which would tend to suggest they think Johnson has stretched prorogation to its absolute limits, and they need to establish those limits in law PDQ ?
Yes. If he can prorogue for 5 weeks, he can do it for 5 months or 5 years.
There is no political route to prevent that. There ought to be a legal one.
And if there isn't? There perhaps ought to be laws on many things.
Parliament has to meet at least once in the year, and a Bill has to be enacted - Triennial Act and Septennial Act so prorogation cannot be for more than about 10 months.
AFAIK, the FTPA repealed the Septennial Act in its entirety. (The Triennial Act was repealed well before.)
Parliament has to pass at least one Finance Act every year to set a budget and reauthorize some taxes. There’s also the Armed Forces Act that renews the legal basis of the services only lasts five years with the next being due in 2021.
So until otherwise ruled, nothing to prevent shuttering the place for most of the year ?
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
In many ways it would have been better if she had lost the big one a couple of years go. We would have been out on time and under the WA if she had. We would now be in transition (all peaceful and stable) and our top top team of negotiators would be cracking on with nailing down that all important future relationship.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Mmm. How many votes in parliament has Boris The Crap won so far?
Interesting to consider that all of this was caused by greedy bankers in 2008 who were annoyed that the person sitting next to them in the office might be getting a bigger bonus than they were.
No all this was caused by Blair and Brown deciding 2006/2007 to renege on having a referendum on Lisbon because they'd lose it.
The voters were never going to let that stand forever.
That isn't, however, Labour's current Brexit policy. Labour's current Brexit policy is: "we'll negotiate a good deal. And then we'll campaign against it."
It is actually very simple to resolve, amazed it hasnt been suggested.
They appoint Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell, Caroline Flint to negotiate with the EU rather than Thornberry and Starmer and to work independently of the Labour leadership and cabinet.
Solved, next problem please?
Not a bad suggestion to have them on the team actually.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
that is far too sensible to appeal to the headbangers at either end of the debate. I would prefer that the whole sorry charade had never happened, but it has. I would be very happy with what you have described, it is the common sense solution.
It’s a bit of a wish list (eg we’d still have to send money to Brussels ) but I’d be content with that. Not happy, but content. And certainly pleased it was all over. I imagine 70% of the country would feel similar, and in 10 years we could revisit the issue and decide if we want to move further away (or further in again)
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
No chance, some decent news for Boris. It's important for the country to see that Boris's actions are legit and Gina Miller etc are the ones who are trying to pick away at democracy.
And to establish that Conservatives will have no objection to a Labour government proroguing parliament for five years while Jeremy Corbyn nationalises jam factories from his prime ministerial dacha in Venezuela.
Prorogation is a royal prerogative, HMQ would not approve a very lengthy one. And without parliament theres nothing can get on the statue book, and without a budget no way to pay for anything. So, hilarity aside, prorogation as a tool of dictatorship is a non starter. You use the army/police and rip up the constitution and chuck Liz in the tower
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
I think they Cummings [and Boris and Grieve etc] all knew exactly what they were doing.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die. Even had there been an election now and the Tories won a small majority, they could have still caused problems.
The rotten apples have been removed now and if there's an election and Boris wins a majority he can implement his policy. There will be no Grieve sitting on the government benches after the election if Boris wins.
So you are finally coming round to realising the PM didnt want to do no deal, and that events have largely played out as they expected, probably bar losing control of the GE date.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Mmm. How many votes in parliament has Boris The Crap won so far?
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
And it is what parliament would vote for if the leaderships of the two main parties gave MPs a free vote.
Can anyone really think either the Tory & Labour parties have done well from this stand off? If the party leaderships just stand aside they can go back to being a two party state with far less damage to the country than we are seeing now.
A great many mps have rebelled on this issue. If others are not willing to stand up without being given a free vote on this issue they are cowards, end of.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
I think they Cummings [and Boris and Grieve etc] all knew exactly what they were doing.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die. Even had there been an election now and the Tories won a small majority, they could have still caused problems.
The rotten apples have been removed now and if there's an election and Boris wins a majority he can implement his policy. There will be no Grieve sitting on the government benches after the election if Boris wins.
So you are finally coming round to realising the PM didnt want to do no deal, and that events have largely played out as they expected, probably bar losing control of the GE date.
I have always said the PM wants a deal [as the PM says] and the only way of getting a good deal is to be prepared to have no deal [as the PM says].
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
that is far too sensible to appeal to the headbangers at either end of the debate. I would prefer that the whole sorry charade had never happened, but it has. I would be very happy with what you have described, it is the common sense solution.
It’s a bit of a wish list (eg we’d still have to send money to Brussels ) but I’d be content with that. Not happy, but content. And certainly pleased it was all over. I imagine 70% of the country would feel similar, and in 10 years we could revisit the issue and decide if we want to move further away (or further in again)
Question is, how do you get there, politically?
'Tis a good question. I think a single transferable vote 3 option referendum might get us there, but I can't see it happening. I would put it as my first preference above remain.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
No chance, some decent news for Boris. It's important for the country to see that Boris's actions are legit and Gina Miller etc are the ones who are trying to pick away at democracy.
How is proroguing Parliament 'democratic'?
Some 'democrats' on here seem as committed to democracy as the one-time German National Socialist Party was to socialism.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die.
The 2017 manifesto they were elected on was not “Brexit do or die” least of all to a deadline set by the President of France!
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
And it is what parliament would vote for if the leaderships of the two main parties gave MPs a free vote.
Can anyone really think either the Tory & Labour parties have done well from this stand off? If the party leaderships just stand aside they can go back to being a two party state with far less damage to the country than we are seeing now.
A great many mps have rebelled on this issue. If others are not willing to stand up without being given a free vote on this issue they are cowards, end of.
May gave her MPs [except the cabinet] a free vote during the Indicative Votes. Parliament still rejected every option.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
I think they Cummings [and Boris and Grieve etc] all knew exactly what they were doing.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die. Even had there been an election now and the Tories won a small majority, they could have still caused problems.
The rotten apples have been removed now and if there's an election and Boris wins a majority he can implement his policy. There will be no Grieve sitting on the government benches after the election if Boris wins.
I suspect the whip removal was initially just a threat that Boris had no intention of carrying out - recall Leadsom's comments on the night of the vote. But when the rebellion materialized Cummings (possibly pissed) was enraged and ordered Boris to go through with it. (Boris, left to his own devices, wouldn't endanger many long-term friendships in the Tory party simply over some parliamentary fun and games.)
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die.
The 2017 manifesto they were elected on was not “Brexit do or die” least of all to a deadline set by the President of France!
The 2017 manifesto didn't win a majority and the PM was elected by the party after that and is preparing his own manifesto.
He needs MPs who will back his own manifesto, not May's.
Funnily enough, that's what Dom said to Boris this morning as well.
I think the quote should be "I am the only person you have come across who has produced more bullshit and carnage than you could ever manage, even in a teashop"
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool.
I think they Cummings [and Boris and Grieve etc] all knew exactly what they were doing.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die. Even had there been an election now and the Tories won a small majority, they could have still caused problems.
The rotten apples have been removed now and if there's an election and Boris wins a majority he can implement his policy. There will be no Grieve sitting on the government benches after the election if Boris wins.
So you are finally coming round to realising the PM didnt want to do no deal, and that events have largely played out as they expected, probably bar losing control of the GE date.
I have always said the PM wants a deal [as the PM says] and the only way of getting a good deal is to be prepared to have no deal [as the PM says].
His half hearted prorogation made no deal extremely unlikely with close to zero benefits for actually delivering no deal as parliament had time either side of it.
If they knew exactly what they were doing, and I think they broadly did and your post says you agree, then by definition they were trying to minimise the chance of no deal and gain an extension.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Mmm. How many votes in parliament has Boris The Crap won so far?
Regarding the thread, it should reflect on why the polls in 2016 generally found that Remain would win the referendum by about the same margin as they lost it. It doesn't.
The polls then had a systematic bias that tended to overstate in the sample the sort of people who voted Remain (or miss those who tended to vote Leave). If there is a correlation between votes for Remain then and support for Remain now (there is indeed!) and the factors causing sampling bias in 2016 are still in play, then you would expect the pattern described.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
And now the Tories can't back down resulting in 12 seats probably being needlessly lost.
Can't see many of those indies winning, grieve for example has a very tough ask to win Beaconsfield
I think Grieve and Clarke could win their seats as independents if the LDs don't stand.
I can't see Clarke standing again.
I think he had already said this would be his last term.
Becoming a widower may have changed his mind. I sense mischief in the old dog yet.....
I suspect the whip removal was initially just a threat that Boris had no intention of carrying out - recall Leadsom's comments on the night of the vote. But when the rebellion materialized Cummings (possibly pissed) was enraged and ordered Boris to go through with it. (Boris, left to his own devices, wouldn't endanger many long-term friendships in the Tory party simply over some parliamentary fun and games.)
I think Leadsom's comments were a mistake or misunderstanding.
You can not threaten something then fail to follow through. If you do that you have zero authority ever again, that would be terminal stupidity. Never ever threaten something you are not prepared to follow through on.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
This (subject to confirmatory referendum) is the 'incoherent' Labour policy.
So irritating when your opponents don't do what you want them to, isn't it ?
Are you suggesting that the Lib Dems think that Streatham is a slam dunk gain even without Chuka and that they can use him to increase their chances in London and Westminster?
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Mmm. How many votes in parliament has Boris The Crap won so far?
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
that is far too sensible to appeal to the headbangers at either end of the debate. I would prefer that the whole sorry charade had never happened, but it has. I would be very happy with what you have described, it is the common sense solution.
It’s a bit of a wish list (eg we’d still have to send money to Brussels ) but I’d be content with that. Not happy, but content. And certainly pleased it was all over. I imagine 70% of the country would feel similar, and in 10 years we could revisit the issue and decide if we want to move further away (or further in again)
Question is, how do you get there, politically?
In 2016 a free vote would have been fine. Now the idea of compromise has been so tarnished that will look like a stitch up. A citizens assembly is the best option, and Rory Stewart would have made an excellent PM.
Proroguing doesn’t look too smart now - just allows Jezza to sit back and count the days until a post-No Deal general election. Tic toc.
I think you mean a post-extension general election? After Johnson's "do or die" pledge to leave by 31 October has been binned.
Depends whether Boris can kill off the Rebel Bill by not allowing HM to give assent etc. His best option now is Leave 31 October with No Deal and election later. Nothing else seems possible or good.
I think the govt has already agreed the bill will receive the RA by Monday.
In that case Cummings must have another trick up his sleeve to prevent an extension. Quite what remains to be seen and be amazed at.
I do wish people would stop elevating this politically autistic advisor. He was good on one single issue campaign that didn't involve dealing with MPs or, indeed, anyone who had a voice in or around his team.
Cummings is politically inept and has created a total disaster.
We had all this nonsense hero worship with Nick Timothy.
Cummings is a tool. Framing the opposition as blocking Brexit is broadly a winning approach I think but its execution has been abject. What really did for him was the size of the rebellion. I guess he thought they might be suspending the whip from a handful, not 21, but that was down to how things were done. The sequencing was all askew.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die.
The 2017 manifesto they were elected on was not “Brexit do or die” least of all to a deadline set by the President of France!
The 2017 manifesto didn't win a majority and the PM was elected by the party after that and is preparing his own manifesto.
He needs MPs who will back his own manifesto, not May's.
He needs a mandate for his own manifesto - in the meantime MPs were elected on the 2017 one.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
This (subject to confirmatory referendum) is the 'incoherent' Labour policy.
Is it though? I've never heard Corbyn say that they would stay in the Single Market.
His half hearted prorogation made no deal extremely unlikely with close to zero benefits for actually delivering no deal as parliament had time either side of it.
If they knew exactly what they were doing, and I think they broadly did and your post says you agree, then by definition they were trying to minimise the chance of no deal and gain an extension.
His half-hearted prorogation was as far as he could constitutionally push it.
To completely prorogue Parliament would have been undemocratic and probably ruled illegal by the courts.
By acting as he did he flushed out the rats and got rid of them.
- The final polls for the referendum itself has remain in the lead for most pollsters so it is not perhaps surprising if remain is in the lead now - I agree that leavers are probably harder to find. Many older voters were leave and don't use the internet - It is worth thinking about the difference between a general election turnout and the referendum turnout. It is my view that many of the extra voters voted leave and were often in safe Labour seats
As you say it is hard to know exactly what the weightings should be.
If we have an election soon and it becomes a proxy referendum on Brexit then we could see a much higher turnout than usual, which could certainly lead to another polling disaster.
By any contemporary measure 36 was not “tragically young”. Some of his contemporaries would have been grandparents.
A friend of a friend of mine was a grandmother at 33.
Snap. Or pretty close. The lady was a great-gran around the time she was 50, too.
That is unlikely to happen to the woman I knew. Life was not kind to her kids. They are still alive and kicking but both have suffered medical issues - one congenital, the other by a road traffic accident.
Surely it would have been far better for Boris if she had won? He could have Parliament sitting again and get up to all sorts of mischief. At the moment he is hoisted by his own petard...
I just think it's funny that finally Mrs Gina "I've got my legal team on standby" Millar has actually lost one of her litigations.
Mmm. How many votes in parliament has Boris The Crap won so far?
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
This (subject to confirmatory referendum) is the 'incoherent' Labour policy.
No it definitely isnt. Kamski put "It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave". Labour policy is heavily tilted toward 2nd ref and revoke.
Lots of people want to get Brexit over with. There's only one way to get Brexit over with. It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU It's not May's WA - ditto It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU The disruption is minimal The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU The UK will be out of the CAP The UK will be out of the CFP The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
that is far too sensible to appeal to the headbangers at either end of the debate. I would prefer that the whole sorry charade had never happened, but it has. I would be very happy with what you have described, it is the common sense solution.
It’s a bit of a wish list (eg we’d still have to send money to Brussels ) but I’d be content with that. Not happy, but content. And certainly pleased it was all over. I imagine 70% of the country would feel similar, and in 10 years we could revisit the issue and decide if we want to move further away (or further in again)
Question is, how do you get there, politically?
First, the Boris approach needs to fail, and be seen to fail. The next key moment is when he has to open his box labelled "Brilliant plan that the EU will agree to" and we all discover that it's empty.
Next, we need an inconclusive election.
Then, the whole thing gets chucked over to the Rory Steward / Archbishop of Canterbury Citizens Jury thing, who will converge on a very soft Brexit because it's the only thing that makes any sense at all.
Comments
Corbyn didn't resign when he lost an election, why would Boris resign before getting his election?
Remember the omnishambles budget, which Damian McBride (whose position as most reviled wonk ever has been usurped by Cummings) revealed was chock-full of measures the Treasury put up every year but were knocked back as being politically toxic. It is the same thing.
As grandpa Churchill said of scientists, advisors should be on tap, not on top.
Grieve and the others were preventing the Tories from implementing their policy to Brexit, do or die. Even had there been an election now and the Tories won a small majority, they could have still caused problems.
The rotten apples have been removed now and if there's an election and Boris wins a majority he can implement his policy. There will be no Grieve sitting on the government benches after the election if Boris wins.
I'm not saying there aren't good or bad MPs, there clearly are but the rosette is ~95-99% of whether they'll get elected or not.
This isn't just chaos. This is M&S* chaos.....
(*Marxist and Socialist....)
https://www.ft.com/content/30ee9c44-d07b-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6?desktop=true
Looks like No Deal is off the table. Probably forever. Because a new, majority Boris govt would avoid No Deal, and use the extra power and time to do something different, and a minority Boris govt would be hemmed in by parliament.
There's only one way to get Brexit over with.
It's not No Deal - that will be followed by years of negotiating with the EU
It's not May's WA - ditto
It's not revoke - leavers will carry on campaigning to leave
It's to leave and stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union.
Not only is this the option that by far the most people can live with, it has lots of advantages:
The UK carries out the result of 2016 referendum to leave the EU
The disruption is minimal
The UK will stop sending "350 million a week" to the EU
The UK will be out of the CAP
The UK will be out of the CFP
The UK will be out of "ever-closer union" or the European superstate
Maybe the main problem is the UK will still have Freedom of Movement. But a few tweaks should be possible, I think a couple of restrictions could be introduced, an "emergency break" could be allowed. Maybe the UK could get an opt out from Freedom of Movement for any new member states, so that if, for example, Turkey ever joins the EU (of course it won't but that was a Leave campaign claim) Turkish citizens wouldn't get FoM to the UK, (nor British citizens to Turkey). Or some other fudges might be possible.
There's a few disadvantages as well of course, but it looks like the only reasonable way forward from here
Although the reason Labour moved is because the latter is bigger and more powerful than the former. So I don't think there will be that much fuss.
It is not really a policy designed to appeal to people like SeanT...
Possibly due to the fact that prorogations of Parliament outside of dissolutions for an election tend to last between 3 and 5 calendar days, with a median of 4 calendar days and have sometimes lasted for 0 calendar days. Only twice since 1930 have they ever gone into double figures in days (12 and 20) and the 20 day one was over Easter.
One lasting for 31 calendar days is, outside of a General Election dissolution, unheard of in living memory.
And, in addition, the abuse of a uniquely extended prorogation was being discussed repeatedly during the Conservative Leadership election campaign as a tactic to shut down Parliamentary scrutiny - but fortunately Boris and others agreed that it would be unacceptable and wouldn't us it.
You know. That.
Paradise Lost.
Can anyone really think either the Tory & Labour parties have done well from this stand off? If the party leaderships just stand aside they can go back to being a two party state with far less damage to the country than we are seeing now.
Westminster is playing Russian Roulette with the electorate again... It could very easily blow up in their faces.
There are some voters who will never vote Tory. Anyone who wants Brexit and is prepared to accept the Tories will vote Tory. BXP will attract voters who want Brexit but hate the Tories. Better they vote BXP than Labour.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iceland-crisis/executives-at-collapsed-iceland-bank-jailed-for-fraud-idUKBRE8BR0EW20121228
Are there a lot of young grandmothers in Harlow?
The voters were never going to let that stand forever.
Question is, how do you get there, politically?
And without parliament theres nothing can get on the statue book, and without a budget no way to pay for anything. So, hilarity aside, prorogation as a tool of dictatorship is a non starter.
You use the army/police and rip up the constitution and chuck Liz in the tower
Lets have the inevitable election and then speak.
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1169916694086787072
And the LDs had a guy already selected. Strange.
Some 'democrats' on here seem as committed to democracy as the one-time German National Socialist Party was to socialism.
He needs MPs who will back his own manifesto, not May's.
If they knew exactly what they were doing, and I think they broadly did and your post says you agree, then by definition they were trying to minimise the chance of no deal and gain an extension.
The polls then had a systematic bias that tended to overstate in the sample the sort of people who voted Remain (or miss those who tended to vote Leave). If there is a correlation between votes for Remain then and support for Remain now (there is indeed!) and the factors causing sampling bias in 2016 are still in play, then you would expect the pattern described.
You can not threaten something then fail to follow through. If you do that you have zero authority ever again, that would be terminal stupidity. Never ever threaten something you are not prepared to follow through on.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/09/house-republicans-texas-are-retiring-2020/597406/
(FWIW, I think they should try to raise the cash to do so.)
To completely prorogue Parliament would have been undemocratic and probably ruled illegal by the courts.
By acting as he did he flushed out the rats and got rid of them.
A few other points to consider:
- The final polls for the referendum itself has remain in the lead for most pollsters so it is not perhaps surprising if remain is in the lead now
- I agree that leavers are probably harder to find. Many older voters were leave and don't use the internet
- It is worth thinking about the difference between a general election turnout and the referendum turnout. It is my view that many of the extra voters voted leave and were often in safe Labour seats
As you say it is hard to know exactly what the weightings should be.
If we have an election soon and it becomes a proxy referendum on Brexit then we could see a much higher turnout than usual, which could certainly lead to another polling disaster.
Next, we need an inconclusive election.
Then, the whole thing gets chucked over to the Rory Steward / Archbishop of Canterbury Citizens Jury thing, who will converge on a very soft Brexit because it's the only thing that makes any sense at all.