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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Remainers of the Day. Why are pollsters consistently findi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Remainers of the Day. Why are pollsters consistently finding more Remainers than you would expect?
I don’t take opinion polls very seriously and nor should you. For all that, they tell us something and some of the time we have no better clue as to what is going on than what they tell us. Right now, they seem to be telling us something rather interesting.
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Which is the more significant, I have no idea.
Is that the same, significant or bull****?
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/02/proponents-of-the-new-bill-to-stop-no-deal-face-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/
The short of it is that the author states that the Benn-Burt bill is subject to "Queen's Consent" as it impacts the royal prerogative. It is different from Royal Assent and does not impact every bill. Crucially (a) the Government has to give consent (b) it is up to the Government and does not drag the Crown into play and (c) court rulings lend support to the Benn-Burt bill falling under the Queen's Consent remit.
I'm not a lawyer but, if the author is right, it might explain why the Govt dropped the Lords filibuster and I wonder if the Government's tactics are as follows,
1. Let the Bill come back to the Commons for its third reading, in which it is approved;
2. Govt introduces its early election proposal on Monday and states to Corbyn we have given you what you want, now give us an October election;
3. Corbyn backs away from her previous commitment, knowing an October election is sub-optimal;
4. Johnson then states that, because Corbyn has reneged on his commitment, the Government will not give Queen's Consent to Burt-Benn as it impacts the prerogative. Bill fails and Parliament is prorogued.
He fails to hit even the very low target (epater les bourgeois toffdom) at which he aims. He opened champagne to celebrate the defeat of the WA. Proper tory toffs drink champagne because it is there, not to bloody celebrate stuff. Churchill drank 42000 bottles of pol roger, not because he won the football pools 42000 times. What is JRM doing on brexit day? Stretch limo and hookers and those squeaky things you blow into?
And I can't picture Churchill sitting like that in the House, either.
I think the wealthier outer London seats will go Tory -> Lib Dem and the inner London seats will stay Labour.
Although I am not from London so I could be very wrong.
Deliver? No
Unite? ROFL
Defeat? Himself. Every time so far
Energise? The opposition
And once prorogued, Boris says do your worst. I ain't budging from Number 10 until after 31st October, even if you VONC me. But I will go and meet EU leaders, to talk about a deal.
Through Cummins master strategising we now have Corbyn the leader of the largest party of a sizeable anti-govt block (and so majority) in the House of Commons. It would be madness of Corbyn to throw away this position in an immediate election- go for a VONC and install an anti-no deal coalition Govt now. It can stay in power for nearly 3 years if required in the national interest.
Corbyn does not have to lead it....merely by acting sensibly in a coalition he can detoxify himself from the worst excesses of Tory scaremongering.....
It is a set of circumstances that he cannot afford to waste...go Jezza
Some people who said they voted Remain have forgotten that they voted Leave
Some people who voted Leave are harder for pollsters to find
The electorate has changed since 2016
The first two would tend to cancel each other out, I think.
The last is an undeniable fact - do pollsters make no effort to incorporate it in their models, or is it simply too difficult ?
Bit harsh.
Millions of people might experience a repeat of the Cleggasm. Voters across the country might think, hold on, we don’t have to vote for the nasty, anti-Semitic old commie, nor do we have to vote for this bumbling Tory shit. There’s a middle path! And she’s economically sensible, and a unionist.
In that case all bets are off. The Lib Dems could do spectacularly well in London. At the expense of Labour as much as the Tories.
This coming election is hugely risky for both big parties.
After every vote we get analyses of why the polls were wrong *this time*. I am told that anaesthetists spent decades agonising over why almost all anaesthetees awoke with a headache no matter how you tweaked the drugs, and eventually realised that almost everyone is addicted to caffeine, that being operated on creates a 24 hour cold turkey experience, and caffeine withdrawal gives you headaches. It's not just by letter count that psephology and phrenology resemble each other.
And if you are capable of tactically voting why would you not also tactically answer polls? So which answer furthers the Leave cause better - to say I voted leave last time and haven't changed my mind, or I was a remainer until I saw the light and converted to Leaverdom? Yet we assume tactical votes are a thing but not that tactical responses are.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/06/banks-project-fear-brexit-forecasts-commercially-driven-propaganda/
Now the way around it would be to ask the courts but they've already stated the fact Parliament is the primary decision maker on Brexit through the Miller case.
oooh look at the thick leavers who watch Jeremy Kyle.
https://order-order.com/2019/09/06/thornberry-ill-negotiate-new-deal-campaign/
Through Cummins master strategising we now have Corbyn the leader of the largest party of a sizeable anti-govt block (and so majority) in the House of Commons. It would be madness of Corbyn to throw away this position in an immediate election- go for a VONC and install an anti-no deal coalition Govt now. It can stay in power for nearly 3 years if required in the national interest.
Corbyn does not have to lead it....merely by acting sensibly in a coalition he can detoxify himself from the worst excesses of Tory scaremongering.....
It is a set of circumstances that he cannot afford to waste...go Jezza
I could quite see Johnson saying “this government will not sign a deal with the backstop. We request an extension until X to finalise Agreement on alternative arrangements. This is conditional on the backstop being dropped”
I know there are restrictions on the length of the extension but anything else?
Labour need a better, clearer Brexit position, very fast. It will be hideously exposed in a campaign. Again this is a way the Libs might come through.
Mps already declaring they wont even consider the new deal, even those negotiating it, that makes clear it's a cynical and silly policy, and there is a risk. But it could still work.
Which I suspect will be a big boost to the Alliance party and may cost the DUP a seat or 4.
Interesting paper:
https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/working-papers/2019/no.-364-biased-forecasts-to-affect-voting-decisions-the-brexit-case.pdf
WTF he was doing sitting like that I don’t know. Ignoring the politics of it, it’s simply discourteous to the colleague who was speaking
But I suspect it will have as much impact as Cameron riding a horse with that lady from the Sun
Edit: and, no offence intended @Ishmael_X , but you post on here way to often to be “normal” in the sense I meant
It would have the added benefit of detoxifying him.....
Maybe HYUFD should take your advice
The last two days has exposed Boris and I have no sympathy for him after he treated the 21 good conservative mps.
However, overnight we witnessed dreadful local election results for labour and Thornberry's car crash on QuestionTime. Indeed labour's brexit policy is so incoherrent it is going to be dreadfully exposed in a GE
The media, this forum, and elsewhere have sustained a 24/7 attack on Boris, including myself, but are we all misjudging the public mood who just see Parliament frustrating brexit and who have no other settled view on how to resolve it
HYUFD has certainly become extreme and sycophantic but if you strip out his more ridiculous language have we even considered that threre is an element of truth in what he says and that in the electorate Boris could be quite popular.
I do believe labour are running scared of an election and could be misjudging the political benefit of delaying a GE until after the 31st October. Around the 19th October and post the EU council meeting Boris will have to report on the meeting to the HOC and if he then declares he will not seek an extension, the explosive row will blow the lid of Westminster and I fear the result will see labour lose a GE by a wide margin
I would just caveat this by IMHO
Asking election losers if they're happy with the election winner doing what the election winner said he would do during the election - and the losers say no because they oppose it as the opposed it during the election they lost - is rather pointless.
If they want to remain then how could anyone have confidence that they would be negotiating in good faith for a deal to do precisely the opposite of what they want.
Their best bet is to wait until post-Oct 31st, vote for the Kinnock amendment (ie the WA) and let TBP and the Cons out-traitor each other in the ensuing election. The WA sure is leaving but as the window has shifted it can be painted as close to remaining plus they can say they will negotiate a very remain-y future trade agreement.
That is their best play.
Sampling is a perennial battle, however, that becomes acute when the paradigm changes. Sampling methods depend on comparing now with before. If now isn't the slightest like before, there's a problem.
These are the things I think the polls are telling us with some confidence:
1. There has been essentially no shift since 2017 of voters between Labour and Conservative. This is different from elections prior to 2017 which were won on voters moving between Con and Labour.
2. The SNP will clean up in Scotland meaning the loss of about 10 Conservative seats.
3. Lib Dems are having enough of a resurgence that they will gain seats, which will be at the expense of the Conservatives.
4. Labour vote share is down very significantly since 2017 with voters switching to the Lib Dems. The same is true to a lesser extent with Conservative votes switching to the Brexit Party.
Putting all this together, it means that the battleground will be Labour marginals. Will the Conservatives win enough of them through Labour to Lib Dem switchers to more than make up their losses elsewhere?
The Queen might not be overly enamoured that her PM has overtly and most publicly committed a criminal offence and broken a law she has just signed into law. It would then be for the Queen to determine whether to use her personal prerogative under reserve powers to dismiss the Prime Minister - last used by William IV in 1834.
This works both ways. Remainers think Brexit is economic suicide. Leavers think No Brexit is cultural/political suicide.
Labour have about a week to sort this out, or they could be facing electoral suicide.
If you keep finding too many Remainers in samples and this continues between pollsters then you have a real issue .
Demographic changes are likely anyway to have removed the 2016 mandate if you remove other variables .
Putting that aside it’s impossible to ignore that Remain has led every single poll for over 18 months .
And because that’s been the case across all pollsters then it can’t be attributed to house effects .
The country is now majority for Remain according to the polls. Of course that doesn’t mean it wins another vote .
Here in W&L if you went around Kendal town centre or Windermere Town you would not find many Leavers. BUT if you go anywhere outside Kendal you will be hard pushed to find any Remainers at all. Hence a survey conducted on Oxenholme Station is unlikely to get a balanced response. Yes, you might get me going over to Besak because I often do, but most commuters are not me. ( Also, Leavers are probably more likely to use thier cars. )
It is a gross over-simplification but the split is something like - answer the question "Does the amount of money that goes into your bank account this weekend depend upon how much work you do or have done in the past ?" Yes > Leave; No > Remain.
And before the howls of outrage from public sector workers I am NOT saying they work less hard, actually sometimes the contrary. Their rules of employment as often so pernicious that they have to work all the harder often on pointless tasks.
I've ranted often enough about why phone pollsters' last digit randomisation does not work, so let's take that as read.
Polls are hard work for the respondent because instead of just asking who you will vote for, they ask hundreds of other questions, often with nebulous axioms and about abstruse subjects: if Boris were a carrot and Corbyn a banana, should the Shetlands join the Channel Islands? Most normal people would have given up halfway through.
This is made worse by tacking the political stuff onto the end of a long inquisition on the best flavour for crisps.
The Leave campaign in particular but also Labour voters last time attracted a lot of previous non-voters who were off the grid in wonk-speak but also suffered by having pollsters routinely ignore non-voters.
But besides polling being rubbish, a better reason for a large pinch of salt is we do not know whether the election will be before or after Brexit, which will hugely change the background. There's a reason Boris and Cummings are desperate to have the election before Brexit and it is not because they expect to be rewarded for Brexit having improved the electorate's lives.
The 100,000, are they youthful remainers or the never voters who registered to vote leave reregistering for one more push? That's the question.
"....Last used by William IV in 1834. "
Do tell us more, Jack. I assume you were there?
It’s either revoke or put Corbyn in as PM for a temporary period .
Under May, there was a clear Brexit policy. Vote for the WA, that is Brexit. That was sensible, and the labour position was muddled.
Now the labour position still has large issues, but its somewhat workable, but the tories isn't.
So Labour are in a better position.
I wondered as I'm sure those poor souls who have shared pub space with him in the last three years must have whether the BBC counted him ias a Leaver or a Remainer?
There is a sizeable majority for remain (or BINO) in the country and in the HoC sitting on the opposition benches- Johnson's hamfisted tactics have aligned the two
They still might not vote for him, but they understand what he represents and have sympathy for being frustrated at every turn. After all, he inherited a mighty steaming pile of poo from the previous occupant of Number 10. And a minority government (it was always clear Lee was going to choose his moment to defect for maximum yah-boo-sucks).
https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/1169889616700178436
Look what happened in Scotland after indyref. The SNP consolidated their hold on Yes votes and also benefited from a sympathetic, patriotic backlash.
More interestingly, the No vote then polarized around the major party with the most coherent unionist case: the Tories, NOT mumbling Scots Labour. Thus the election of 2017.
If that pattern repeats in our UK election (and the parallels are close, but not perfect) the Tories should see a modest uptick. But it’s the Lib Dems, with their crystal clear Remain position, who can expect to make big, surprising gains.
Canterbury and uh...