A general election before Brexit seems like a huge strategic mistake by Boris.
Absolutely anything could happen once people turn their attention to it (the opinion polls now mean very little).
Did he have much choice? He must have looked at the numbers and thought: I’m going to lose a VONC
I thought his plan was to stall Parliament for the next 10-12 days until prorogation.
Size of,Tory rebellion frightened him?
Anyway the BBC is reporting that tomorrow’s vote is being seen as a VONC by HMG. If Boris loses, it’s a GE
That makes no sense. There are fixed routes for calling an election and that isn’t one.
From the groaniad
“Tomorrow's vote will be treated as confidence matter, says No 10
This is from a Number 10 source,
The PM is hosting all Tory MPs at Number 10 this evening. He is taking the opportunity to see cabinet as well - the cabinet calling notice should have gone out - and they will discuss the government’s response to MPs seeking to take control of the legislative agenda away from the government and handing it to the opposition and Corbyn without the consent of the people. The view is that tomorrow’s possible vote is an expression of confidence in the government’s negotiating position to secure a deal and will be treated as such.”
I’d include a link but I’m by a swimming pool and I’ve had two mamos beers
Under Article 50 the U.K. and the EU had 2 years to agree a new set of arrangements
They failed
So we leave without a new set of arrangements
(And please don’t attack me personally. Playing the man not the ball is never pleasant)
I have a lot of sympathy for this view. We voted to leave we haven't left. That surely can't be right. There was no "how to" on the ballot paper, as we all know and bemoan so leaving with no deal is perfectly legitimate.
However, the 2017 GE changed more than the electoral maths. As we saw in 2015, promises made in a manifesto become null when there is not the mandate, via overall majority, to implement them. Everything is up in the air. Hence the Cons can perfectly well say we are now going to leave with no deal and that would indeed be fulfilling their obligation to govern without an OE (of course they have plenty of those also).
But this whole XX% of MPs voted to leave by supporting their 2017 manifesto is by the same token not true. Those manifestos are now chip paper, rendered irrelevant by events, and each MP is legitimately allowed to decide what they believe in individually or as a group and if that is EUref2, revoke, GE, that is perfectly legitimate.
Manifestos have a different status - we know they are a programme for government and not binding
The difference with the referendum is the people were asked. And gave an instruction.
Our politicians have really, truly, colossally, fucked everything up.
But this needs resolution. And the voters instruction was clear. I only hope that the voters are fierce in their judgement on any MPs who stand again
I agree with you but the blame is with leavers and remainers alike.
A general election before Brexit seems like a huge strategic mistake by Boris.
Absolutely anything could happen once people turn their attention to it (the opinion polls now mean very little).
With the opposition vote split 50:50 between the LDs and Lab, the back drop is similar to 1983.
If I were a Tory leader, with a sensible Brexit policy, I might find that hard to resist.
I actually think the opposite.
I think the Tories could be caught in a pincer movement. Over a 4-6 week period I could see a big (massive) Lib Dem surge in the south/south east as voters desperately try and inhibit a No Deal Brexit. I could see the Greens doing well in some places, like Bristol, Norwich and Brighton, and most Labour voters sticking with Corbyn but him failing to meaningfully advance anywhere. Meanwhile, the votes from the BXP fail to come off, and the SNP do well in Scotland again.
We could see something like the LDs on 40-50 seats. The SNP back on 50. Labour around 250. And the Tories down to 270-280 with the DUP having suffered too.
Just noticed Corbyn saying ‘last chance’ in a vaguely northern accent... is this how he usually speaks? Southerners pronounce it ‘larst charnce’ rather than shortened vowels
I heard him and thought exactly the same thing. My next thought was where is he giving the speech..
A general election before Brexit seems like a huge strategic mistake by Boris.
Absolutely anything could happen once people turn their attention to it (the opinion polls now mean very little).
With the opposition vote split 50:50 between the LDs and Lab, the back drop is similar to 1983.
If I were a Tory leader, with a sensible Brexit policy, I might find that hard to resist.
PS. It's worth bearing in mind that 1983 took place in the context of *national* voter splits and swings, whereas nowadays electorates are far more culturally atomised.
Just noticed Corbyn saying ‘last chance’ in a vaguely northern accent... is this how he usually speaks? Southerners pronounce it ‘larst charnce’ rather than shortened vowels
If Parliament could be dissolved by this Thursday, surely GE could be on Oct 10th.
But not sure if possible to dissolve by Thursday - ie on Tues put motion on Order Paper for Wed, have vote on Wed, but even then certain procedures still have to be followed - eg proclamation by The Queen which may happen on a separate day?
Manifestos have a different status - we know they are a programme for government and not binding
The difference with the referendum is the people were asked. And gave an instruction.
Our politicians have really, truly, colossally, fucked everything up.
But this needs resolution. And the voters instruction was clear. I only hope that the voters are fierce in their judgement on any MPs who stand again
The instruction was not clear, because to Leave you need to have a destination. Being left open ended has undermined and devalued the whole thing. We are left trying to infer specific mandates from soundbites in the campaign.
The instruction was anything but clear. That is the problem.
But you are right, our politicians (David Cameron we are looking at you) fucked everything up.
A general election before Brexit seems like a huge strategic mistake by Boris.
Absolutely anything could happen once people turn their attention to it (the opinion polls now mean very little).
With the opposition vote split 50:50 between the LDs and Lab, the back drop is similar to 1983.
If I were a Tory leader, with a sensible Brexit policy, I might find that hard to resist.
I actually think the opposite.
I think the Tories could be caught in a pincer movement. Over a 4-6 week period I could see a big (massive) Lib Dem surge in the south/south east as voters desperately try and inhibit a No Deal Brexit. I could see the Greens doing well in some places, like Bristol, Norwich and Brighton, and most Labour voters sticking with Corbyn but him failing to meaningfully advance anywhere. Meanwhile, the votes from the BXP fail to come off, and the SNP do well in Scotland again.
We could see something like the LDs on 40-50 seats. The SNP back on 50. Labour around 250. And the Tories down to 270-280 with the DUP having suffered too.
Brexit would be stopped. For good.
Yes. That’s possible. If that happens I’d expect a Labour minority government dependent on very temporary Lib Dem support. That would mean another referendum - probably producing a remain vote. After that we’d likely have another GE
At least it would be democratic. After a fashion.
But I still think Boris’ gamble, if he takes it, will pay off.
Under Article 50 the U.K. and the EU had 2 years to agree a new set of arrangements
They failed
So we leave without a new set of arrangements
(And please don’t attack me personally. Playing the man not the ball is never pleasant)
I have a lot of sympathy for this view. We voted to leave we haven't left. That surely can't be right. There was no "how to" on the ballot paper, as we all know and bemoan so leaving with no deal is perfectly legitimate.
However, the 2017 GE changed more than the electoral maths. As we saw in 2015, promises made in a manifesto become null when there is not the mandate, via overall majority, to implement them. Everything is up in the air. Hence the Cons can perfectly well say we are now going to leave with no deal and that would indeed be fulfilling their obligation to govern without an OE (of course they have plenty of those also).
But this whole XX% of MPs voted to leave by supporting their 2017 manifesto is by the same token not true. Those manifestos are now chip paper, rendered irrelevant by events, and each MP is legitimately allowed to decide what they believe in individually or as a group and if that is EUref2, revoke, GE, that is perfectly legitimate.
Manifestos have a different status - we know they are a programme for government and not binding
The difference with the referendum is the people were asked. And gave an instruction.
Our politicians have really, truly, colossally, fucked everything up.
But this needs resolution. And the voters instruction was clear. I only hope that the voters are fierce in their judgement on any MPs who stand again
I agree with you but the blame is with leavers and remainers alike.
Yes - (some) Remainers for never reconciling with the result and (some) Leavers for trashing a reasonable compromise BREXIT before they’d even read it.
Under Article 50 the U.K. and the EU had 2 years to agree a new set of arrangements
They failed
So we leave without a new set of arrangements
(And please don’t attack me personally. Playing the man not the ball is never pleasant)
I have a lot of sympathy for this view. We voted to leave we haven't left. That surely can't be right. There was no "how to" on the ballot paper, as we all know and bemoan so leaving with no deal is perfectly legitimate.
However, the 2017 GE changed more than the electoral maths. As we saw in 2015, promises made in a manifesto become null when there is not the mandate, via overall majority, to implement them. Everything is up in the air. Hence the Cons can perfectly well say we are now going to leave with no deal and that would indeed be fulfilling their obligation to govern without an OE (of course they have plenty of those also).
But this whole XX% of MPs voted to leave by supporting their 2017 manifesto is by the same token not true. Those manifestos are now chip paper, rendered irrelevant by events, and each MP is legitimately allowed to decide what they believe in individually or as a group and if that is EUref2, revoke, GE, that is perfectly legitimate.
Manifestos have a different status - we know they are a programme for government and not binding
The difference with the referendum is the people were asked. And gave an instruction.
Our politicians have really, truly, colossally, fucked everything up.
But this needs resolution. And the voters instruction was clear. I only hope that the voters are fierce in their judgement on any MPs who stand again
It is the same people voting in the GE as it was in the EURef ie the British voting public. They are modifying their views and by the same token politicians are allowed to do the same as a result. The public have endorsed no one's vision of a future Britain so it is legitimate for the politicians to try new ideas.
Oh but they voted to leave in a referendum. And indeed they did, but now we have reverted to the party political system and everyone must work within that.
Another bit of our engineering capacity shuttered:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49551613 "What is particularly tragic is that this the only UK plant with the potential to produce electric steels for motors and with investment, vision and government backing this could be the key part of the supply chain for electric vehicles."...
Doesn't this speculation rather blow out of the water the theory Cummings is running rings round the opposition? Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front. Tuesday prorogues. Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE. It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
Under Article 50 the U.K. and the EU had 2 years to agree a new set of arrangements
They failed
So we leave without a new set of arrangements
(And please don’t attack me personally. Playing the man not the ball is never pleasant)
I have a lot of sympathy for this view. We voted to leave we haven't left. That surely can't be right. There was no "how to" on the ballot paper, as we all know and bemoan so leaving with no deal is perfectly legitimate.
However, the 2017 GE changed more than the electoral maths. As we saw in 2015, promises made in a manifesto become null when there is not the mandate, via overall majority, to implement them. Everything is up in the air. Hence the Cons can perfectly well say we are now going to leave with no deal and that would indeed be fulfilling their obligation to govern without an OE (of course they have plenty of those also).
But this whole XX% of MPs voted to leave by supporting their 2017 manifesto is by the same token not true. Those manifestos are now chip paper, rendered irrelevant by events, and each MP is legitimately allowed to decide what they believe in individually or as a group and if that is EUref2, revoke, GE, that is perfectly legitimate.
Manifestos have a different status - we know they are a programme for government and not binding
The difference with the referendum is the people were asked. And gave an instruction.
Our politicians have really, truly, colossally, fucked everything up.
But this needs resolution. And the voters instruction was clear. I only hope that the voters are fierce in their judgement on any MPs who stand again
It is the same people voting in the GE as it was in the EURef ie the British voting public. They are modifying their views and by the same token politicians are allowed to do the same as a result. The public have endorsed no one's vision of a future Britain so it is legitimate for the politicians to try new ideas.
Oh but they voted to leave in a referendum. And indeed they did, but now we have reverted to the party political system and everyone must work within that.
I agree with that. If our tribunes, elevated by a new election, decide to ask for a 2nd referendum, then that is entirely democratic. Labour and the libs will put it in their manifestos. We will know exactly what we are voting for.
I think a lot is going to develop this week. There are a lot of "known unknowns" and maybe a couple of "unknown unknowns" which will reveal themselves before next Monday. While lots of posters here (including me) like to hypothecate over the different scenarios, I can see that many posts are going to look very outdated very quickly.
I agree and in Scotland it is even more complex. I cannot see the Scottish courts allowing Boris to run roughshod over the Scottish parliament. This will create a scenario where there is almost no way to implement no deal in Scotland. The country is almost fully united in not agreeing with the English Tory plan. Even the Scottish tories.
Some Scottish and N Irish backstop is my initial thought as where we are heading but who knows
It will be implemented by matter of treaty (Scotland will not be a member of the EU)
If the SP wishes to not pass any necessary laws that is a dereliction of their duty
Time the Treaty of Union was revoked, then we do not need to worry about Dictators laws from Westminster
This is the issue dereliction of what duty? The Scots have not voted for Brexit and made it clear they are opposed to no deal. The English Tories are prepared to ignore Parliament but expect the Scots to respect their rules. I rarely agree with Malcolm but in this case is he is right. The Scots can just say and will say no.
Sure, they can put their fingers in their ears
But when they turn up to the ports to export stuff and they don’t have the right paperwork...
No the Scots as Malcom would point out can always just declare independence.
Not without a referendum - so a minimum of (day) 3 months
Doesn't this speculation rather blow out of the water the theory Cummings is running rings round the opposition? Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front. Tuesday prorogues. Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE. It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
Yes, I'm really confused. I thought Cummings had sewn things up by ensuring that a general election couldn't happen before the Brexit date. It was in The Telegraph!
Doesn't this speculation rather blow out of the water the theory Cummings is running rings round the opposition? Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front. Tuesday prorogues. Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE. It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
Is Boris gonna be that unhappy about being ‘forced’ into an election when he is 10-15 points ahead, and facing Jeremy Corbyn?
Yes, it’s highly risky. But so is every course of action, from here.
Doesn't this speculation rather blow out of the water the theory Cummings is running rings round the opposition? Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front. Tuesday prorogues. Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE. It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
I think it is playing into Boris nee Cummings hand
It will be perfectly simple for Boris to campaign people v parliament and the elite
Now I do not think he will get a majority but I would expect labour to be squeezed
A general election before Brexit seems like a huge strategic mistake by Boris.
Absolutely anything could happen once people turn their attention to it (the opinion polls now mean very little).
With the opposition vote split 50:50 between the LDs and Lab, the back drop is similar to 1983.
If I were a Tory leader, with a sensible Brexit policy, I might find that hard to resist.
I actually think the opposite.
I think the Tories could be caught in a pincer movement. Over a 4-6 week period I could see a big (massive) Lib Dem surge in the south/south east as voters desperately try and inhibit a No Deal Brexit. I could see the Greens doing well in some places, like Bristol, Norwich and Brighton, and most Labour voters sticking with Corbyn but him failing to meaningfully advance anywhere. Meanwhile, the votes from the BXP fail to come off, and the SNP do well in Scotland again.
We could see something like the LDs on 40-50 seats. The SNP back on 50. Labour around 250. And the Tories down to 270-280 with the DUP having suffered too.
Brexit would be stopped. For good.
Yes. That’s possible. If that happens I’d expect a Labour minority government dependent on very temporary Lib Dem support. That would mean another referendum - probably producing a remain vote. After that we’d likely have another GE
At least it would be democratic. After a fashion.
But I still think Boris’ gamble, if he takes it, will pay off.
I don't think it will. People want a resolution one way or another. If the resolution offered is via a GE or a referendum I think most will pull the plug.
Rather than giving ground in the face of Boris's Churchill tribute-act, Leo Varadkar seems to hardening his position. It used to be 'no hard border', now he's saying:
"The backstop is a means to an end. It is there to ensure that we continue to have frictionless trade north and south, that there is no physical infrastructure, no checks, no controls, no tariffs. We want that to continue to be the case. ... The difficulty is that anything we have seen so far when it comes to alternative arrangements do something very different.
They just manage a border, they facilitate tariffs, they facilitate checks, they facilitate controls but try to do it in a way that is invisible and unobtrusive, and that is better than nothing but it is not the outcome that we want to achieve."
The great news is that whatever crap No Deal Brexit throws at millions of UK citizens at home and abroad, Johnson, Rees Mogg, Raab, Williamson, Patel, Javid and co - and their families - will be absolutely fine. Their wealth, privilege and connections will see them through. Phew!
Doesn't this speculation rather blow out of the water the theory Cummings is running rings round the opposition? Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front. Tuesday prorogues. Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE. It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
There's probably a box on the flowchart for this eventuality tbf.
I'd love to see what the box after the 'we lose the election' option says.
Rather than giving ground in the face of Boris's Churchill tribute-act, Leo Varadkar seems to hardening his position. It used to be 'no hard border', now he's saying:
"The backstop is a means to an end. It is there to ensure that we continue to have frictionless trade north and south, that there is no physical infrastructure, no checks, no controls, no tariffs. We want that to continue to be the case. ... The difficulty is that anything we have seen so far when it comes to alternative arrangements do something very different.
They just manage a border, they facilitate tariffs, they facilitate checks, they facilitate controls but try to do it in a way that is invisible and unobtrusive, and that is better than nothing but it is not the outcome that we want to achieve."
(From the Guardian live blog, 13:20)
Yet he has no plans for a wall. Nor a budget set aside.
Under Article 50 the U.K. and the EU had 2 years to agree a new set of arrangements
They failed
So we leave without a new set of arrangements
(And please don’t attack me personally. Playing the man not the ball is never pleasant)
I have a lot of sympathy for this view. We voted to leave we haven't left. That surely can't be right. There was no "how to" on the ballot paper, as we all know and bemoan so leaving with no deal is perfectly legitimate.
However, the 2017 GE changed more than the electoral maths. As we saw in 2015, promises made in a manifesto become null when there is not the mandate, via overall majority, to implement them. Everything is up in the air. Hence the Cons can perfectly well say we are now going to leave with no deal and that would indeed be fulfilling their obligation to govern without an OE (of course they have plenty of those also).
But this whole XX% of MPs voted to leave by supporting their 2017 manifesto is by the same token not true. Those manifestos are now chip paper, rendered irrelevant by events, and each MP is legitimately allowed to decide what they believe in individually or as a group and if that is EUref2, revoke, GE, that is perfectly legitimate.
Manifestos have a different status - we know they are a programme for government and not binding
The difference with the referendum is the people were asked. And gave an instruction.
Our politicians have really, truly, colossally, fucked everything up.
But this needs resolution. And the voters instruction was clear. I only hope that the voters are fierce in their judgement on any MPs who stand again
It is the same people voting in the GE as it was in the EURef ie the British voting public. They are modifying their views and by the same token politicians are allowed to do the same as a result. The public have endorsed no one's vision of a future Britain so it is legitimate for the politicians to try new ideas.
Oh but they voted to leave in a referendum. And indeed they did, but now we have reverted to the party political system and everyone must work within that.
I agree with that. If our tribunes, elevated by a new election, decide to ask for a 2nd referendum, then that is entirely democratic. Labour and the libs will put it in their manifestos. We will know exactly what we are voting for.
They could even form a majority govt on the basis of “Revoke and Remain” - it might not be wise and could store trouble down the road, but it would be legitimate.
"In his superb biography of him, my colleague Andrew Gimson outlines the practice that has allowed Mr Johnson to get so far in life: he has used his charm, to which only a few more seasoned hands are immune, to enlist at every stage what Mr Gimson calls "stooges" to help him advance.
There were stooges when Mr Johnson was en route to be president of the Oxford Union. He has had stooges all through journalism, who did significant parts of his various jobs for him, usually with little thanks or reward. And now there are stooges in politics."
The great news is that whatever crap No Deal Brexit throws at millions of UK citizens at home and abroad, Johnson, Rees Mogg, Raab, Williamson, Patel, Javid and co - and their families - will be absolutely fine. Their wealth, privilege and connections will see them through. Phew!
Says (probably) the richest man on the site
👍😂
Has JackW permanently departed to... The Other Site?
Doesn't this speculation rather blow out of the water the theory Cummings is running rings round the opposition? Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front. Tuesday prorogues. Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE. It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
Is Boris gonna be that unhappy about being ‘forced’ into an election when he is 10-15 points ahead, and facing Jeremy Corbyn?
Yes, it’s highly risky. But so is every course of action, from here.
Yes, but. My point was, there is a huge PR difference between being forced into one by VONC, and simply calling one for partisan advantage. The latter has a very poor record of success.
A general election before Brexit seems like a huge strategic mistake by Boris.
Absolutely anything could happen once people turn their attention to it (the opinion polls now mean very little).
With the opposition vote split 50:50 between the LDs and Lab, the back drop is similar to 1983.
If I were a Tory leader, with a sensible Brexit policy, I might find that hard to resist.
I actually think the opposite.
I think the Tories could be caught in a pincer movement. Over a 4-6 week period I could see a big (massive) Lib Dem surge in the south/south east as voters desperately try and inhibit a No Deal Brexit. I could see the Greens doing well in some places, like Bristol, Norwich and Brighton, and most Labour voters sticking with Corbyn but him failing to meaningfully advance anywhere. Meanwhile, the votes from the BXP fail to come off, and the SNP do well in Scotland again.
We could see something like the LDs on 40-50 seats. The SNP back on 50. Labour around 250. And the Tories down to 270-280 with the DUP having suffered too.
Brexit would be stopped. For good.
Yes. That’s possible. If that happens I’d expect a Labour minority government dependent on very temporary Lib Dem support. That would mean another referendum - probably producing a remain vote. After that we’d likely have another GE
At least it would be democratic. After a fashion.
But I still think Boris’ gamble, if he takes it, will pay off.
I could see the lib dems getting up to 100 seats..wonder what the market is?
There is no way any LOTO could refuse a GE if offered by an incumbent. His wiggle room is the timing of it but I have no idea how possible that would be because if Boris offers one, Jezza has to say yes.
If Ed Milliband had won we would be sharing pictures of our free owls now. LoO Osborne would be having fun at the EdStones expenses. Boris Johnson would be about to debut on Strictly. Farage would be a witness in the trial of once presidential hopeful Trump.
2. Unlike almost all other EU migrants, they have a large number of troubling social problems that come with them: extremely low literacy levels, low education, etc.
It’s quite likely these problems stem, at least in part, from the grievous discrimination Roma face, back home, in Bulgaria and Romania etc. But denying they exist, and denying they cause dismay in their new communities, is a futile exercise. As one might expect from a crazed Remainer.
We might also point out that the Tory and Tory lite governments of recent decades haven't been particularly adept at dealing with groups of 10,000 under-educated under-privileged British people in Northern towns either.
Strangely, when I was walking along The Mall a couple of Sundays back, I saw the statue of Frederick, Duke of York. It's not one of the better-known monuments and the paradox is while he is best known (and mocked) in a nursery rhyme, he did in fact play a huge role in the reform of the Army which would make it a successful fighting force in both Iberia and eventually at Waterloo.
Things are not always what they seem.
I'm also reminded of another historical paradox, Sir Winston Churchill. Eulogised for his record (and rightly so) as leader of a wartime coalition (that bit is often overlooked), his record as a peacetime politician is decidedly mixed but again nobody thinks about that.
Churchill did of course argue MPs were representatives and not delegates - those who argue the 2016 referendum result "must be respected" seem to suggest there is a mandate at work but our system doesn't work that way. WSC also argued it was an MP's primary duty to use their "fair and impartial judgement" to decide what was best for the "honour and safety" of the UK.
When we elect an MP, we trust their judgement to represent us but representation isn't about following the will of the majority or indeed the will of anyone. An MP has their conscience and their judgement to work with and while they can and should listen to a diversity and plurality of opinion, in the end we have in effect entrusted them to act as they see fit not as we would like.
In theory, the opportunity exists to remove that MP at the next election though unfortunately, the key contest for too many MPs isn't the ballot box at the GE but the selection process in their own seats.
If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
Those who would like a second referendum should probably accept that it's very unlikely to happen, and that a general election is the closest thing they're going to get. (It's up to them to arrange candidates in constituencies so their vote isn't split).
Sadly that does seem to be where we are heading. If anything, a General Election isn't big enough to deal with Brexit now we are talking shutting down parliament, formally going for No Deal and seeing millions shouting betrayal. But it looks like a GE will have to try to do the job of sorting this out one way or another.
Boris is in a bind in a pre brexit election, because if he says the ploy is to get a deal but be ready for no deal, then Farage has just been handed his campaign slogan "Boris sellout, vote BXP to ensure a true brexit isn't forgotten about". If Boris comes out explicitly for no deal then he will face endless questioning about it really means, and he will scare off many mainstream tory voters.
Also a date question - the obvious date is October 17th. This is the date of the EU Council! So no-one to speak for the country, so how would Boris claim to do any negotiation after winning the GE? So I think he'd simply have to run on a formal No Deal manifesto - and that would be suicidal wouldn't it?
If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
I think the Electoral Commission woujd cry foul on that rapidly followed by the courts.
Rather than giving ground in the face of Boris's Churchill tribute-act, Leo Varadkar seems to hardening his position. It used to be 'no hard border', now he's saying:
"The backstop is a means to an end. It is there to ensure that we continue to have frictionless trade north and south, that there is no physical infrastructure, no checks, no controls, no tariffs. We want that to continue to be the case. ... The difficulty is that anything we have seen so far when it comes to alternative arrangements do something very different.
They just manage a border, they facilitate tariffs, they facilitate checks, they facilitate controls but try to do it in a way that is invisible and unobtrusive, and that is better than nothing but it is not the outcome that we want to achieve."
(From the Guardian live blog, 13:20)
Really?
Sounds like laying the groundwork to back down. Not what he wanted but better than nothing is exactly what we want him to sign up to.
He's there. You need to click on it to see the full list.
That list looks to be missing some names. Huw Merriman for starters.
I'd have thought that some of the Scottish MPs should also be on it.
(I'm not absolutely sure about Huw. He's very loyal and quite cautious, and his constituency is very Leavey, which I think will influence him a lot. I know him reasonably well although I haven't spoken to him recently.)
Surely this GE threat is just another attempt by Team Boris to bring the Tory rebels into line?
If the rebels vote to block No Deal they will not be Tory candidates at a GE that follows straight away.
Will it stop the rebels? - I doubt it.
It's not a threat.
He is going to call an election.
He has little choice , it is No deal or call election now. His only hope is to go early and hope for the best , if he crashes out with No Deal the Tories will get slaughtered.
Strangely, when I was walking along The Mall a couple of Sundays back, I saw the statue of Frederick, Duke of York. It's not one of the better-known monuments and the paradox is while he is best known (and mocked) in a nursery rhyme, he did in fact play a huge role in the reform of the Army which would make it a successful fighting force in both Iberia and eventually at Waterloo.
Things are not always what they seem.
I'm also reminded of another historical paradox, Sir Winston Churchill. Eulogised for his record (and rightly so) as leader of a wartime coalition (that bit is often overlooked), his record as a peacetime politician is decidedly mixed but again nobody thinks about that.
Churchill did of course argue MPs were representatives and not delegates - those who argue the 2016 referendum result "must be respected" seem to suggest there is a mandate at work but our system doesn't work that way. WSC also argued it was an MP's primary duty to use their "fair and impartial judgement" to decide what was best for the "honour and safety" of the UK.
When we elect an MP, we trust their judgement to represent us but representation isn't about following the will of the majority or indeed the will of anyone. An MP has their conscience and their judgement to work with and while they can and should listen to a diversity and plurality of opinion, in the end we have in effect entrusted them to act as they see fit not as we would like.
In theory, the opportunity exists to remove that MP at the next election though unfortunately, the key contest for too many MPs isn't the ballot box at the GE but the selection process in their own seats.
WRT to Churchill, I tend to remember a quote which goes something like this: "He was the right man in the right place at the right time. For the rest of the time, he was the wrong person."
Which, whilst the reality is more complex, seems a rather good summation of a very complex man.
However much he wants to be, I don't think Boris is anything like Churchill. But I hope I'm wrong.
Comments
“Tomorrow's vote will be treated as confidence matter, says No 10
This is from a Number 10 source,
The PM is hosting all Tory MPs at Number 10 this evening. He is taking the opportunity to see cabinet as well - the cabinet calling notice should have gone out - and they will discuss the government’s response to MPs seeking to take control of the legislative agenda away from the government and handing it to the opposition and Corbyn without the consent of the people. The view is that tomorrow’s possible vote is an expression of confidence in the government’s negotiating position to secure a deal and will be treated as such.”
I’d include a link but I’m by a swimming pool and I’ve had two mamos beers
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
I think the Tories could be caught in a pincer movement. Over a 4-6 week period I could see a big (massive) Lib Dem surge in the south/south east as voters desperately try and inhibit a No Deal Brexit. I could see the Greens doing well in some places, like Bristol, Norwich and Brighton, and most Labour voters sticking with Corbyn but him failing to meaningfully advance anywhere. Meanwhile, the votes from the BXP fail to come off, and the SNP do well in Scotland again.
We could see something like the LDs on 40-50 seats. The SNP back on 50. Labour around 250. And the Tories down to 270-280 with the DUP having suffered too.
Brexit would be stopped. For good.
That makes pincer movements more likely.
But not sure if possible to dissolve by Thursday - ie on Tues put motion on Order Paper for Wed, have vote on Wed, but even then certain procedures still have to be followed - eg proclamation by The Queen which may happen on a separate day?
The instruction was anything but clear. That is the problem.
But you are right, our politicians (David Cameron we are looking at you) fucked everything up.
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1168498292252139520
At least it would be democratic. After a fashion.
But I still think Boris’ gamble, if he takes it, will pay off.
History will be kind to neither.
Oh but they voted to leave in a referendum. And indeed they did, but now we have reverted to the party political system and everyone must work within that.
This week is full of surprises
Depends on how many MPs they get - I’d guess somewhere between “zero” and “not a lot”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49551613
"What is particularly tragic is that this the only UK plant with the potential to produce electric steels for motors and with investment, vision and government backing this could be the key part of the supply chain for electric vehicles."...
Last Monday, opposition comes up with United front.
Tuesday prorogues.
Weekend, threatens to remove whip. Opposition unifies against threat. Today looks like GE.
It looks reactive rather than proactive. Especially as consensus was that what was wanted was to be forced into a GE by VONC.
Plus I'm getting to know DUP types as the wedding I'm next March in Belfast will have a lot of DUP people there.
Our correspondent tests the mood on the streets of Uxbridge
Paul Embery"
https://unherd.com/2019/08/could-boris-lose-his-seat/
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1168497804035198976
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1168500702915846147
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1168500709676990464
Yes, it’s highly risky. But so is every course of action, from here.
Which just launched.
It will be perfectly simple for Boris to campaign people v parliament and the elite
Now I do not think he will get a majority but I would expect labour to be squeezed
Cracking poll for Alliance. Looks like they are picking up votes from both unionists and republicans.
Who are the Agreed Unionists? Hard to keep up with NI splinter groups.
"The backstop is a means to an end. It is there to ensure that we continue to have frictionless trade north and south, that there is no physical infrastructure, no checks, no controls, no tariffs. We want that to continue to be the case.
...
The difficulty is that anything we have seen so far when it comes to alternative arrangements do something very different.
They just manage a border, they facilitate tariffs, they facilitate checks, they facilitate controls but try to do it in a way that is invisible and unobtrusive, and that is better than nothing but it is not the outcome that we want to achieve."
(From the Guardian live blog, 13:20)
👍😂
I'd love to see what the box after the 'we lose the election' option says.
All mouth, no trousers.
"In his superb biography of him, my colleague Andrew Gimson outlines the practice that has allowed Mr Johnson to get so far in life: he has used his charm, to which only a few more seasoned hands are immune, to enlist at every stage what Mr Gimson calls "stooges" to help him advance.
There were stooges when Mr Johnson was en route to be president of the Oxford Union. He has had stooges all through journalism, who did significant parts of his various jobs for him, usually with little thanks or reward. And now there are stooges in politics."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/3557784/Why-treat-the-London-election-as-a-joke.html
😱
The latter has a very poor record of success.
NEW THREAD
There is no way any LOTO could refuse a GE if offered by an incumbent. His wiggle room is the timing of it but I have no idea how possible that would be because if Boris offers one, Jezza has to say yes.
If the rebels vote to block No Deal they will not be Tory candidates at a GE that follows straight away.
Will it stop the rebels? - I doubt it.
Strangely, when I was walking along The Mall a couple of Sundays back, I saw the statue of Frederick, Duke of York. It's not one of the better-known monuments and the paradox is while he is best known (and mocked) in a nursery rhyme, he did in fact play a huge role in the reform of the Army which would make it a successful fighting force in both Iberia and eventually at Waterloo.
Things are not always what they seem.
I'm also reminded of another historical paradox, Sir Winston Churchill. Eulogised for his record (and rightly so) as leader of a wartime coalition (that bit is often overlooked), his record as a peacetime politician is decidedly mixed but again nobody thinks about that.
Churchill did of course argue MPs were representatives and not delegates - those who argue the 2016 referendum result "must be respected" seem to suggest there is a mandate at work but our system doesn't work that way. WSC also argued it was an MP's primary duty to use their "fair and impartial judgement" to decide what was best for the "honour and safety" of the UK.
When we elect an MP, we trust their judgement to represent us but representation isn't about following the will of the majority or indeed the will of anyone. An MP has their conscience and their judgement to work with and while they can and should listen to a diversity and plurality of opinion, in the end we have in effect entrusted them to act as they see fit not as we would like.
In theory, the opportunity exists to remove that MP at the next election though unfortunately, the key contest for too many MPs isn't the ballot box at the GE but the selection process in their own seats.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
Sadly that does seem to be where we are heading. If anything, a General Election isn't big enough to deal with Brexit now we are talking shutting down parliament, formally going for No Deal and seeing millions shouting betrayal. But it looks like a GE will have to try to do the job of sorting this out one way or another.
Sounds like laying the groundwork to back down. Not what he wanted but better than nothing is exactly what we want him to sign up to.
He is going to call an election.
Then that is what Boris should do.
Let's own the Brexit Blockers.
Which, whilst the reality is more complex, seems a rather good summation of a very complex man.
However much he wants to be, I don't think Boris is anything like Churchill. But I hope I'm wrong.