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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new administration has so far moved with speed and determination. That’s one reason why so many commentators seem taken in by its impression of tough-minded resolve and tactical acumen. But we shouldn’t be fooled. There are huge risks in the approach that Johnson and his right-hand man Dominic Cummings are taking, and they have made a series of mistakes that might give their opponents the last laugh.
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Along with others on here I suggested some months ago that an autumn GE was odds-on but events since muddied the waters. It now looks pretty inevitable. Perhaps Corbyn could have strung out the Conservatives for a while and seen Johnson's star fall further but he now looks likely to throw his weight behind an election vote. This may have been the Cummings strategy all along. Cummings is fired by his narcissistic self-belief because of the Leave win. This reminds me very much of Cameron's self-belief that following Scottish IndyRef he would perform a similar feat with the EU Vote. Hubris.
It's a high risk strategy for both Johnson and Corbyn. But perhaps for the country's sake there's no alternative.
How ironic if the winner is Jo Swinson.
If you think there is anything in that then shop around, as prices on Labour figures like Starmer and RLB vary by 100 per cent or more between different bookmakers.
Have Johnson/Cummings chosen the least worst option if their objective is to deliver BREXIT?
If they genuinely believe Remainers within and without Parliament are effectively blocking renegotiation by the EU, what else should they do?
Their renegotiation aim of WA minus Back Stop is the only thing the House has voted in favour of.
What will more delay lead to other than further uncertainty?
One thing I am sure of - this House is no longer fit for purpose and the sooner it - and its Speaker - are replaced, the better. As for which government that leads to - who the heck knows?
Labour won't want it to be, and Boris and Cummings are furiously shaking the magic money tree to shoot Labour's foxes on the NHS, schools, crime and so on. More importantly, Number 10 wants an election just after Brexit has happened but before project fear is seen to have had a point after all.
The fringe parties like BXP and the LibDems might be caught out here, if even single-issue voters see Brexit as a fait accompli.
The House, and Speaker, are doing all they can to prevent this.
That is exactly their purpose.
Not that one!
Not that one neither!
No!
Something Else!
It is a model of sense, but I do not expect it to be uncontentious.
A few questions for the PB brains trust:
1) is a pre-Oct 31 election locked on now? Oct 17?
2) what is the Tories' Brexit policy in this election? No deal?
3) would a Tory no deal platform be necessary or sufficient to get BXP to stand aside?
4) do the Tories allow 20 MPs to get deselected just before the election? Would the incumbents run as independent Conservatives?
5) how can the Tories possibly think they will win this election given (a) Scotland, (b) deselections and (c) either they run on no deal (unpopular with electorate) or risk activating BXP?
I know that Cummings has spent the summer gaming every scenario like the Very Clever Person he is while us mere mortals were on the beach, but I can't figure out what he thinks he's doing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49547040
1) Yes - any attempt to hold it after Oct 31 would be a “constitutional outrage” unlike the current row which JRM described as “gamesmanship”.
2) WA minus back stop - only thing HoC has voted in favour of. If the EU won’t accept that don’t blame us.
3) BXP will go for it whatever - down to Farage’s ego.
4) It’s a right old mess - likely to benefit the opposition if they do run as “Independent Conservatives”. But at least what remains of the party will be “united” - unlike Labour....
5) However big a mess the Tories are in Labour are in a potentially worse mess - not sure their Brexit equivocation can survive a GE campaign with Leading ShadCab advocating Remain. And then there’s Corbyn.
And 6) LibDems should run on a “Remain” platform - put Labour on the spot.
1. Corbyn as their offering for PM
2. No credible Brexit policy
3. No credible action on anti-semitism
The timing is not exactly propitious. But the only thing that has kept them together has been the end point of a general election. They can hardly flinch from it now.
Oh and teachers were probably not the best use of that money but hey it’s just a bribe.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/irish-border-after-brexit-all-ideas-beset-by-issues
The Brexiteres are undemocratic scum. Shame on them, and shame on the once-great Conservative Party for putting such scum in power.
I've added his blog to my reading list.
i) the Labour party is in chaos, the tories are a shoe in or
ii) the Conservative party is in chaos, Labour are a shoe in.
Which opinion you hold will depend of which of the two parties you would rather see win.
Good article. Being high-handed if you've got two-thirds on your side can work. In a very tightly contested matter, you may well just drive away potential and actual supporters.
And much as many people here might not like him, in Boris they have a leader who is appearing to listen, to act, to be upbeat, to try to do the right thing - and get Brexit over the line. And from what I am hearing, people have warmed to that.
A resut like 38 C, 23 Lab, 17 LD would give Boris a very healthy majority to get on and do stuff.
The Conservatives under Boris have the most seats but even with the DUP reach 310 MPs (and assuming the "Boris Conservatives" win all the challenges against newly independent Conservatives)
The Labour party are a comfortable second and
Lab+SNP+LD have over 325 MPs.
This would be a really difficult situation for the HoC to cope with, and I could easily see that Swinson says the LDs will support Labour but not with Corbyn as PM.
*Plausible does not mean my prediction, but it is a scenario that must be taken seriously.
In which case, we could be looking at a GE as early as somewhere between Oct 10th and Oct 15th?
* Current WA subject to binding referendum vs Remain, if he whips for it then it'll pass parliament
* Put the WA in the manifesto and call a GE
* Put the NI-only backstop in the manifesto and call a GE asking for a mandate that doesn't depend on the DUP
* All-party committee to decide a softer brexit of the kind that nearly passed as an indicative vote, and would have passed with government support, and ask the EU to reopen negotiations without TMay's red lines. (Probably won't work but you never know.)
* Just extend and wait for something to change of its own accord
* Fuck everything, MV4
That's not a great selling-point.
And there is always the Lib Dems for the conscientious, moral voter.
If the Conservatives do hold an election promising either "WA without backstop (impossible)" or no-deal then a lot of 2017 conservative voters in the central wing will not vote tory this time.
Did he miss the EU elections ?
Worrying about the long term when the party could be finished within 3 months is for the birds.
Oh, I see - a working majority YOU LIKE....
They can pass a motion telling him to, he can ignore it as it has no legal force.
They could maybe pass a law, insisting he asks, but it requires the consent of all EU27 countries, and if he doesn't want one he can ask for one in a fashion that will be refused.
Or he could just ignore the law regardless, what is parliament going to do? Tell his mum ?
If the commons wants an extension, there is only 1 route to it, VONC Boris and appoint another executive to do their bidding.
It may be hard to come up with an alternative *that will be good for the Conservative Party's polling in the next few weeks* but that's a different question.
1. Will the Tories be able to make the breakthrough in northern leave seats currently held by Labour that they threatened to do in GE2017?
2. Will the Lib Dem resurgence see Tory losses in the South?
3. Will the Lib Dem resurgence see Labour and Tory losses in London?
4. Will Boris actually keep his seat?! (assuming he’s not parachuted into some vacating MPs fiefdom, that is).
5. Will the Tories return to panda status in Scotland or can some of them cling on?
6. How will the DUP fare in Northern Ireland?
It might be complete and utter chaos but for politics nerds it’s better than Christmas.
https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1168407258012749824?s=21
Some Scottish and N Irish backstop is my initial thought as where we are heading but who knows
The only way to completely nullify the Brexit Party in a general election is to have a manifesto of no deal .
That will drive away more moderate Tories especially those who voted Remain or want to leave with a deal .
For Labour what do they do ? A full on Remain position sheds Leavers , a fudge of agreeing a new deal means that’s still a Brexit position for Remainers .
A new deal and then a second vote Remain. or deal opens up lots of questions as to how many Labour MPs will trash their own parties deal and campaign for Remain.
The Lib Dems have the easiest message . As do the other total Remain parties . Equally the Brexit Party is also clear .
The election looks very difficult to call and even more so until the manifestos have been published .
The government deselecting MPs for rebelling on an issue that they themselves rebelled against just a few months ago is the act of scum. And undemocratic scum at that, given the 2017 manifesto and the polling.
Can politicians do that? Genuine question.
Cui bono?
Farage, probably.
If they are after a short extension that points to it being the lowest common denominator behind the disparate anti-no deal MP groups.
Or, they could revoke, but I'm not sure the votes are there for it at present.
Who knows where the numbers will fall if we get to 30th Oct, without a dissolution and no deal?
All academic I think; I expect a dissolution within 96 hours.
I cant see anything other than an anti Tory rainbow coalition though goodness knows who would lead it given the antipathy to Corbyn outside Labour. And indeed within!
If the country seems fooked under the current House I cant see the outcome of a GE putting us on a better footing.
The nightmare worsens it seems. What a depressing read the last couple of threads have been....
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
If that's really the plan, then Boris has already won
In any case, I think most teachers at the moment would rather see more teachers than higher pay. Higher salaries might attract more recruits - but there seems a fair risk it will also force more cuts in school budgets elsewhere to pay for them.
Edit - incidentally, as of this morning employer contributions to teacher pensions have increased by 40%.
A HYUFD-style large Conservative majority is just about possible - and there are at least ways towards that, however unlikely they may be.
So is a 2017-style surprise with a Labour majority (albeit realistically a small one). Given the current political chaos, it's amazing to think that Labour aren't dead certs - and that is a result of their massive weaknesses.
The Lib Dems could sweep up as well, perhaps as a Lib Dem/SNP coalition (and what fun that would be). However much more likely is a high percentage and a few dozen seats.
The winners are hard to discern through the smog of political uncertainty. The losers are east to discern - the great British public and democracy itself.
There was a time when lunatics were barred from the political process. I can't help but feel they were much happier times!
Really, that just strengthens Boris - as he looks to camera and says "See what I'm up against folks?"
We need an election. We need a significantly new Parliament.
After that we have plenty of time to re-think and re-invoke with a new negotiating position.
Meanwhile Cummings wants to purge the Mensheviks.
It's pointless trying to figure what he 'thinks' because that assumes he actually thinks something.
To quote Agatha Christie, a fluent, compulsive and habitual liar.
But do you seriously believe any of these shiny announcements will actually be enacted unmodified, even in the event of the Tories having a majority sufficient to present something of more substance than the Potemkin Queen’s Speech currently scheduled ?
Wouldn't the smart thing be to let a minority government twist in the wind for a bit, especially if it forces them to reveal a bit more of their Brexit hand?
They can take the high ground of not wanting instability in the crucial month of October.
She wouldn't have won a majority, but she would probably still have been in government and Boris, Mogg, Baker, Francois, Patel and Raab would have been finished.
But to my mind this is starting to have a tinge of "I will do such things—What they are yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth" about it.
When I first saw polling data cited, for a fleeting moment I thought that HYUFD might be the author, but then I realised that the article was making a coherent argument so knew it couldn't be.
But how do you then get Labour to dump a leader who's just "led" the party to something close to victory? It'd take weeks going on months for a leadership contest - and the current Labour membership would probably vote Corbyn back.
Is it even possible for Labour to keep Corbyn as leader, but have (say) Starmer as PM? Because - Sturgeon not being an MP - the only acceptable alternative would be Swinson as PM of a coalition in which the LDs were the minority party.
Which, to put it politely, would be a turnup for the books
We will know more by midnight tomorrow probably when we see just how far Bercow is prepared to go to frustrate Boris.
No deal Brexit has all sorts of implications on the Scottish government doing its job. Health care for example is run by it. The courts politically cannot be seen to ignore this as they risk losing their jobs. They will probably set the UK government a set of actions to take which it is unlikely they can comply with.
In Scotland the power of Boris is quickly evaporating and no one here will put their heads over tte parapets to support him. I assume David L is not based in Scotland.
To give you a more serious answer I expect that we will end up with a much closer relationship with the EU than many ERG types now think, that we will find what we have more valuable than what we might get and work to keep as much of it as possible, that the closeness of our relationship with the EU will vary depending upon the flavour of our governments but that there will be a wariness about getting caught up in the machinations of EU institutions again.
But how do you then get Labour to dump a leader who's just "led" the party to something close to victory? It'd take weeks going on months for a leadership contest - and the current Labour membership would probably vote Corbyn back.
Is it even possible for Labour to keep Corbyn as leader, but have (say) Starmer as PM? Because - Sturgeon not being an MP - the only acceptable alternative would be Swinson as PM of a coalition in which the LDs were the minority party.
Which, to put it politely, would be a turnup for the books
"Swinson? Turnip for the books more like..."
I mean, the idea that Bone or JRM are more fit to be Conservative MP's than (say) Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart is laughable. Worse, one Brexit is over, the moderate voices will be gone, to be replaced with people with only one mindset. And given this act, they will all be yes-men and yes-women (if women are allowed in, that is).
The Conservative Party will become a right-wing cesspit. The warning signs are already there, with good honourable members leaving (including some on here). The odds are the voters will follow.
You might want to consider that 'discipline' is a rather loaded word.
While the outcome of hypothetical Oct GE seems uncertain, I think it boils down to the issues. If BJ manages to make focus brexit, he wins (See polls). If like GE17 Corbyn gains traction on other issues I can see a Lab minority govt.
Then, who is the better campaigner? Methinks Boris by a nose.
Things at least look different with Boris.