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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking: The Conservative Party

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  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    My take is as follows:

    Whips think 20 or so rebels won’t get legislation over the line.

    Threat of deselection is for the remaining 80 or so who don’t want to leave without
    a deal but won’t sacrifice their careers to prevent it.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    Come on HYUFD this is not war and you demean yourself by suggesting it

    Fight your corner but retain perspective
    "Retain"
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,788
    In the event of no deal, much of EU law will continue to apply, including freedom of movement:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/01/government-to-scrap-plans-for-henry-viii-power-to-end-free-movement

    I pointed out the other day the number of bills (which had been slow-timed by May) that proroguing Parliament caused to fall completely.
  • Options
    Entertaining though it is to see Boris, Raab, Rees-Mogg etc coming round to the view that three-line whips should be obeyed by Conservative MPs, in the larger scheme of things this is an irrelevance. It's very simple. Either parliament takes back control or it doesn't. If it does, Boris will be shown up as impotent, which will crush him. If it doesn't, he will achieve a very short-lived 'victory' of crashing us out in chaos, which quite apart from the damage it will to do to the country, will crush the Conservative Party for a generation.

    This is government by panic.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.

    Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
    If they in fact do prorogue beyond October 31 I think we will see civil unrest.
    Would even the Queen allow a 2nd rapid fire proroguing?

    The courts may even rule it illegal.
    Not that I think it will happen, nor want it to happen, but illegal under what law? It's a prerogative power.
  • Options
    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
  • Options
    There is some very thin gruel sustaining some metaphorically starving remainers on here tonight.


  • Options

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    It is a psephological fact, whether you like it or not.
  • Options

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    It's not an argument. It's a fact.

    Are you still a member by the way?

    If so...why?
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    JRM asks MPs to support the Govt in its negotiations. I did. I voted for the conclusions of the negotiations brought to Parliament in the WA. JRM, his friends and current Cabinet members did not. Why am I, having loyally supported, now being threatened and not them? https://t.co/vCHLTeufrf

    — Alistair Burt (@AlistairBurtUK) September 1, 2019
    A good question.

    The answer is simple - Mr Burt is not "pure" enough. The true believers want total isolation from Europe, not a deal. Anything less is treachery.

    Douglas Adams was right "... anyone capable of getting elected should, on no account, be allowed to do the job"
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,085
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.

    Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
    If they in fact do prorogue beyond October 31 I think we will see civil unrest.
    Would even the Queen allow a 2nd rapid fire proroguing?

    The courts may even rule it illegal.
    Not that I think it will happen, nor want it to happen, but illegal under what law? It's a prerogative power.
    We’ll find out this week.
  • Options

    There is some very thin gruel sustaining some metaphorically starving remainers on here tonight.

    Au contraire.
    HYUFD’s “Falling Down” moment is the best form of weathervane.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    “War”.

    Get a grip.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    Drutt said:

    So it begins. The great battle of our time.

    If the backbench legislation says 'pm must seek extension' then Boris can go and ask for something so short it's immaterial. A day, or five minutes. Hardly worth firing 20 MPs over that.

    If it says 'must also accept any extension offered' or 'must revoke in the absence of agreed extension', it won't pass anyway. So no point firing here either.

    So what will that draft legislation say?

    Parliament k=legislating for an extension is playing right into Cumming's hands, they are let off the hook but can blame parliament for the extension. Parliament would be very unwise to fall into that trap
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    There is some very thin gruel sustaining some metaphorically starving remainers on here tonight.

    Is it November already?
  • Options
    Streeter said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    It's not an argument. It's a fact.

    Are you still a member by the way?

    If so...why?
    It is unpleasant and shows a lack of respect. It also hurts those of us who have lost friends and relatives recently

    My membership is retained unless we leave with no deal.
  • Options
    OllyT said:

    Drutt said:

    So it begins. The great battle of our time.

    If the backbench legislation says 'pm must seek extension' then Boris can go and ask for something so short it's immaterial. A day, or five minutes. Hardly worth firing 20 MPs over that.

    If it says 'must also accept any extension offered' or 'must revoke in the absence of agreed extension', it won't pass anyway. So no point firing here either.

    So what will that draft legislation say?

    Parliament k=legislating for an extension is playing right into Cumming's hands, they are let off the hook but can blame parliament for the extension. Parliament would be very unwise to fall into that trap
    Who gives a shit?
    I’d rather just avoid a No Deal, thanks.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127

    There is some very thin gruel sustaining some metaphorically starving remainers on here tonight.

    Au contraire.
    HYUFD’s “Falling Down” moment is the best form of weathervane.
    A once mild-mannered wannabe Tory councillor is at large in Epping Forest.

    And its not the roe deer he has in his sights...
  • Options
    JonathanD said:

    lol, the EU are not going to blink.

    They are limbering up to take on the US and China, they can't show weakness anytime some mid-size nation tries to take them on.

    LOL the EU taking on the US and China. Now that is hilarious!
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Cyclefree said:

    JRM asks MPs to support the Govt in its negotiations. I did. I voted for the conclusions of the negotiations brought to Parliament in the WA. JRM, his friends and current Cabinet members did not. Why am I, having loyally supported, now being threatened and not them? https://t.co/vCHLTeufrf

    — Alistair Burt (@AlistairBurtUK) September 1, 2019

    A good question.
    Because May was a coward and Boris isn't.

    Major wasn't a coward either. Boris is doing the same as Major.

    Well that’s a happy precedent for Boris! You might want to look up what happened to the Major government and the Tory party after it ended.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,788
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.

    Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
    If they in fact do prorogue beyond October 31 I think we will see civil unrest.
    Would even the Queen allow a 2nd rapid fire proroguing?

    The courts may even rule it illegal.
    Not that I think it will happen, nor want it to happen, but illegal under what law? It's a prerogative power.
    The advice given to the monarch by the executive to prorogue is subject to judicial revue - as we are currently seeing.
    The actual prerogative power itself is effectively a rubber stamp, so beside the question.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    edited September 2019
    JonathanD said:


    "lol, the EU are not going to blink.

    They are limbering up to take on the US and China, they can't show weakness anytime some mid-size nation tries to take them on.

    "

    Leavers have been telling us that the EU is about to blink for over 3 years now
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The very oldest voters are more pro-European than many other age groups.
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Entertaining though it is to see Boris, Raab, Rees-Mogg etc coming round to the view that three-line whips should be obeyed by Conservative MPs, in the larger scheme of things this is an irrelevance. It's very simple. Either parliament takes back control or it doesn't. If it does, Boris will be shown up as impotent, which will crush him. If it doesn't, he will achieve a very short-lived 'victory' of crashing us out in chaos, which quite apart from the damage it will to do to the country, will crush the Conservative Party for a generation.

    This is government by panic.

    Do parliament want to take control?

    Surely better to let Johnson fail to renegotiate a Deal and then have him in a position where he has to ask for an extension or leave with no Deal.
  • Options

    Streeter said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    It's not an argument. It's a fact.

    Are you still a member by the way?

    If so...why?
    It is unpleasant and shows a lack of respect. It also hurts those of us who have lost friends and relatives recently

    My membership is retained unless we leave with no deal.
    Some facts, rather like many Tory policies, are unpleasant.

    I hope you remain a member for many years to come.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,085
    AndyJS said:

    The very oldest voters are more pro-European than many other age groups.

    Yeah. The children of the boomers who like to pretend they fought the war.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,788
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    JRM asks MPs to support the Govt in its negotiations. I did. I voted for the conclusions of the negotiations brought to Parliament in the WA. JRM, his friends and current Cabinet members did not. Why am I, having loyally supported, now being threatened and not them? https://t.co/vCHLTeufrf

    — Alistair Burt (@AlistairBurtUK) September 1, 2019

    A good question.
    Because May was a coward and Boris isn't.

    Major wasn't a coward either. Boris is doing the same as Major.
    Well that’s a happy precedent for Boris! You might want to look up what happened to the Major government and the Tory party after it ended.
    Philip doesn’t care about any of that.
    Unlike HYUFD, who is a slavish party loyalist, he is interested only in getting a hard Brexit over the line,
  • Options
    JonathanD said:

    Entertaining though it is to see Boris, Raab, Rees-Mogg etc coming round to the view that three-line whips should be obeyed by Conservative MPs, in the larger scheme of things this is an irrelevance. It's very simple. Either parliament takes back control or it doesn't. If it does, Boris will be shown up as impotent, which will crush him. If it doesn't, he will achieve a very short-lived 'victory' of crashing us out in chaos, which quite apart from the damage it will to do to the country, will crush the Conservative Party for a generation.

    This is government by panic.

    Do parliament want to take control?

    Surely better to let Johnson fail to renegotiate a Deal and then have him in a position where he has to ask for an extension or leave with no Deal.
    That's a good question. Labour under Corbyn may still be playing party-political games, rather than acting in the interests of the country. I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    The very oldest voters are more pro-European than many other age groups.

    Yeah. The children of the boomers who like to pretend they fought the war.
    IIRC those born before 1945 are more pro-EU than the next youngest group, although not as pro-EU as the youngest age groups.
  • Options

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    I do not disagree but trying to score political points over the deaths of people is bad taste. I would ask would the same point be made if the deaths were predominantly remainers
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    There are a number of Tory MPs who are standing down at the next election and therefore couldn’t care less about deselection: Harrington, Clarke, Bebb, Letwin.

    Any I’ve missed?
  • Options

    JonathanD said:

    Entertaining though it is to see Boris, Raab, Rees-Mogg etc coming round to the view that three-line whips should be obeyed by Conservative MPs, in the larger scheme of things this is an irrelevance. It's very simple. Either parliament takes back control or it doesn't. If it does, Boris will be shown up as impotent, which will crush him. If it doesn't, he will achieve a very short-lived 'victory' of crashing us out in chaos, which quite apart from the damage it will to do to the country, will crush the Conservative Party for a generation.

    This is government by panic.

    Do parliament want to take control?

    Surely better to let Johnson fail to renegotiate a Deal and then have him in a position where he has to ask for an extension or leave with no Deal.
    That's a good question. Labour under Corbyn may still be playing party-political games, rather than acting in the interests of the country. I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days.

    A smart Labour leader would seize the chance to act in the national interest. So you know exactly what will happen.

  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,136
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.

    Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
    If they in fact do prorogue beyond October 31 I think we will see civil unrest.
    Would even the Queen allow a 2nd rapid fire proroguing?

    The courts may even rule it illegal.
    Not that I think it will happen, nor want it to happen, but illegal under what law? It's a prerogative power.
    The advice given to the monarch by the executive to prorogue is subject to judicial revue ...
    Thank you for the image of a line of red-robed judges performing a Tiller Girls routine. :-)
  • Options
    gordonBrookergordonBrooker Posts: 44
    edited September 2019
    'Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost'

    Can I just repeat that cracker again. 'No matter what the cost'
    This is what we are dealing with here.

    Luckily it is such an insane worldview, this vision that Johnson and his merry band of loons are channelling, that they are doing a fantastic job of uniting former foes across a wide swathe of the political spectrum, from moderate Tories and Lib Dems to Blairites and Greens and Corbynistas, who have given up squabbling and are gawping as one in sheer horror at this completely un-British spectacle being visited upon us. If this was Cummings' magical gameplan, then, well done him.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    There is a serious problem in the polling industry that they are struggling to find enough leavers to reflect the 2016 vote Mr Meeks was offering a header on this last night that could be interesting. But you can’t escape the fact that enough of those who voted leave have passed on to the great brexit future in the sky to make it somewhat closer now
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,843
    edited September 2019
    IANAL, but aren't there requirements about A50 having to be conducted in accordance with the constitutional arrangements of the exiting state?

    In which case would any anti No Deal legislation, even if simple ignored by HMG (a government possibly being held in suspended animation by the FTPA) be relevant to the legality of the Exit and be challengeable up to and Including the ECJ?

    Depends, I suppose, on the extent to which A50 demands constitutionality, and the extent to which any anti No Deal laws affect constitutionality rather than just legality.

    A No Deal Brexit suspended by the ECJ after a few weeks of creeping chaos, that suspension possibly met with a substantial majority hallelujah, would be a fun backdrop against which Boris could fight the eventual GE. One can but dream :)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,788

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    The manner of the comment was a bit distasteful, but there is a serious point behind it. One might also note that all those teenagers who were outraged not to have a vote on their future, back in 2106, would now get a say if there were a second referendum.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited September 2019
    On the settled status website it says you don't need to apply if you are Irish.

    Edit: And the tweet has been deleted.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

    I’m not just being a pedant - the difference is real. MPs standing down will have wound down their public appearances, their association chairmen will be looking for replacements, there will be locals who have been supporting various applicants etc.

    It’s a whole lot more difficult to turn that into an independent candidacy.
  • Options

    JonathanD said:

    Entertaining though it is to see Boris, Raab, Rees-Mogg etc coming round to the view that three-line whips should be obeyed by Conservative MPs, in the larger scheme of things this is an irrelevance. It's very simple. Either parliament takes back control or it doesn't. If it does, Boris will be shown up as impotent, which will crush him. If it doesn't, he will achieve a very short-lived 'victory' of crashing us out in chaos, which quite apart from the damage it will to do to the country, will crush the Conservative Party for a generation.

    This is government by panic.

    Do parliament want to take control?

    Surely better to let Johnson fail to renegotiate a Deal and then have him in a position where he has to ask for an extension or leave with no Deal.
    That's a good question. Labour under Corbyn may still be playing party-political games, rather than acting in the interests of the country. I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days.

    A smart Labour leader would seize the chance to act in the national interest. So you know exactly what will happen.

    True. What's more, even in the narrowest of party-political terms, making Boris look impotent and irrelevant is in Labour's interest, so this is one of those rare occasions where party-political calculation and the national interest are quite well aligned.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    The very oldest voters are more pro-European than many other age groups.

    Yeah. The children of the boomers who like to pretend they fought the war.
    IIRC those born before 1945 are more pro-EU than the next youngest group, although not as pro-EU as the youngest age groups.
    Correct they knew what they were fighting for
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    nichomar said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    There is a serious problem in the polling industry that they are struggling to find enough leavers to reflect the 2016 vote Mr Meeks was offering a header on this last night that could be interesting. But you can’t escape the fact that enough of those who voted leave have passed on to the great brexit future in the sky to make it somewhat closer now
    Indeed, I wonder how many shy Remainers or Leavers are skewing the opinion polls.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,788
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.

    Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
    If they in fact do prorogue beyond October 31 I think we will see civil unrest.
    Would even the Queen allow a 2nd rapid fire proroguing?

    The courts may even rule it illegal.
    Not that I think it will happen, nor want it to happen, but illegal under what law? It's a prerogative power.
    The advice given to the monarch by the executive to prorogue is subject to judicial revue ...
    Thank you for the image of a line of red-robed judges performing a Tiller Girls routine. :-)
    :smile:
    I’ve always been something of a constitutional innovator.
  • Options
    John Redwood appears to live in an alternative universe, one of those parallel worlds Cummings likes to wank on about.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1168118093698228224?s=21
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    JonathanD said:

    Entertaining though it is to see Boris, Raab, Rees-Mogg etc coming round to the view that three-line whips should be obeyed by Conservative MPs, in the larger scheme of things this is an irrelevance. It's very simple. Either parliament takes back control or it doesn't. If it does, Boris will be shown up as impotent, which will crush him. If it doesn't, he will achieve a very short-lived 'victory' of crashing us out in chaos, which quite apart from the damage it will to do to the country, will crush the Conservative Party for a generation.

    This is government by panic.

    Do parliament want to take control?

    Surely better to let Johnson fail to renegotiate a Deal and then have him in a position where he has to ask for an extension or leave with no Deal.
    That's a good question. Labour under Corbyn may still be playing party-political games, rather than acting in the interests of the country. I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days.

    A smart Labour leader would seize the chance to act in the national interest. So you know exactly what will happen.

    True. What's more, even in the narrowest of party-political terms, making Boris look impotent and irrelevant is in Labour's interest, so this is one of those rare occasions where party-political calculation and the national interest are quite well aligned.

    Yep, I suspect John McDonnell and Keir Starmer get this. Presumably they have spent a lot of time this weekend talking very slowly, using short words and drawing lots of pictures to try to get Corbyn to understand it, too.

  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    I do not disagree but trying to score political points over the deaths of people is bad taste. I would ask would the same point be made if the deaths were predominantly remainers
    I score no political points except the ludicrous idea of thinking that we should be bound by a vote supposedly representing the "will of the people" over 3 years ago (as if it's Holy Writ) when many of them are no longer here - so don't care, and very many of them were never asked and very much do care.
  • Options
    What are the actual mechanics of calling a vote on an election? Is it amendable?
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,782
    edited September 2019

    John Redwood appears to live in an alternative universe, one of those parallel worlds Cummings likes to wank on about.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1168118093698228224?s=21

    That's Sir John Redwood to you... :D
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,085
    I’m still incredibly interested in what the proposed ‘no deal blocker’ legislation will be. There’s been no leaks but they must be working on it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    What are the actual mechanics of calling a vote on an election? Is it amendable?

    The wording of the motion is outlined in the act. I don't think it can be amended as the act says a motion of that wording is the only way to have an early election.
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    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

    I’m not just being a pedant - the difference is real. MPs standing down will have wound down their public appearances, their association chairmen will be looking for replacements, there will be locals who have been supporting various applicants etc.

    It’s a whole lot more difficult to turn that into an independent candidacy.

    My guess is that a former cabinet minister standing against his own party would attract a great deal of attention.

  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    I do not disagree but trying to score political points over the deaths of people is bad taste. I would ask would the same point be made if the deaths were predominantly remainers
    I would not take it personally. I agree it is not a very attractive way to fight an argument. I think it is just as important to reflect the fact that 1 million young voters will be on the electoral register as the number of those who are no longer with us
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127
    RobD said:

    On the settled status website it says you don't need to apply if you are Irish.

    Edit: And the tweet has been deleted.
    Do you ever look back and think? Um, should we real
    Nigelb said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    The manner of the comment was a bit distasteful, but there is a serious point behind it. One might also note that all those teenagers who were outraged not to have a vote on their future, back in *2106*, would now get a say if there were a second referendum.

    This miserable saga has been dragging on even longer than I thought!
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    “War”.

    Get a grip.
    Have you seen some of the hysterical posts from remainers on here last couple of days?

    Plenty of hyperbole from both sides.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019
    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    At least this week will provide us wih the definitive list of those Conservative MPs who have a higher opinion of themselves than the voters.

    They will soon, rightly, no longer be Conservative MPs.
  • Options
    Both sides of the Brexit argument should be relieved we are finally arriving at a conclusion.

    My hope is after we have left the country can come together and move forward leaving the angst of the last 3 years behind us.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    What are the actual mechanics of calling a vote on an election? Is it amendable?

    The FTPA route is a motion, the alternative is repealing the FTPA. Doesn’t the second part of your question depend upon the standing orders?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,934
    Cyclefree said:

    There are a number of Tory MPs who are standing down at the next election and therefore couldn’t care less about deselection: Harrington, Clarke, Bebb, Letwin.

    Any I’ve missed?

    Kate Hoey

    (sorry, couldn't resist it... :) )
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    There are a number of Tory MPs who are standing down at the next election and therefore couldn’t care less about deselection: Harrington, Clarke, Bebb, Letwin.

    Any I’ve missed?


    Hope this helps

    Conservative

    David Tredinnick Bosworth
    Glyn Davies Montgomeryshire
    Guto Bebb Aberconwy
    Jeremy LeFroy Stafford
    Ken Clarke Rushcliffe
    Oliver Letwin West Dorset
    Richard Harrington Watford

    Labour

    Albert Owen Ynys Mon
    Geoffrey Robinson Coventry NW
    Gloria De Piero Ashfield
    Jim Fitzpatrick Popular and Limehouse
    Kate Hoey Vauxhall
    Keven Barron Rother Valley
    Roberta Blackman-Woods City of Durham
    Ronnie Campbell Blyth Valley
    Stephen Pound Ealing N
    Stephen Twigg Liverpool West Derby
    Theresa Pearce Erith and Thamesmead

    Lib Dems

    Norman Lamb North Nortfolk
    Vince Cable Twickenham

    Independent

    Nick Boles Grantham
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Both sides of the Brexit argument should be relieved we are finally arriving at a conclusion.

    My hope is after we have left the country can come together and move forward leaving the angst of the last 3 years behind us.

    Bad news: it's only just begun.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    Ooh excellent. War. Have you signed up? As a diehard remainer you will be a great asset to the effort.

    When do you foresee the first skirmish?
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Both sides of the Brexit argument should be relieved we are finally arriving at a conclusion.

    My hope is after we have left the country can come together and move forward leaving the angst of the last 3 years behind us.

    What’s going to change? Leave with a deal years of arguing about the FTA leave without a deal decades of arguing about an FTA if you think 31/1019 ends anything you are going to be seriously disappointed.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127
    nichomar said:

    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
    Why wouldn't you just sell it on the open market?
  • Options

    Both sides of the Brexit argument should be relieved we are finally arriving at a conclusion.

    My hope is after we have left the country can come together and move forward leaving the angst of the last 3 years behind us.

    It's going to drag on for years, if not for basically ever.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
    Why wouldn't you just sell it on the open market?
    Can't get rid of the tenants by the sounds of it :p
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

    I’m not just being a pedant - the difference is real. MPs standing down will have wound down their public appearances, their association chairmen will be looking for replacements, there will be locals who have been supporting various applicants etc.

    It’s a whole lot more difficult to turn that into an independent candidacy.

    My guess is that a former cabinet minister standing against his own party would attract a great deal of attention.

    Johnson must be tearing Cumming's remaining hair out wondering what more he has to do to get the support of the 12 to 16% of electors who hitherto have declined to switch from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives? Might that get their attention?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

    I’m not just being a pedant - the difference is real. MPs standing down will have wound down their public appearances, their association chairmen will be looking for replacements, there will be locals who have been supporting various applicants etc.

    It’s a whole lot more difficult to turn that into an independent candidacy.

    My guess is that a former cabinet minister standing against his own party would attract a great deal of attention.

    +1
    Boris is employing Trump style politics from a two party system into a multi-party UK system. I dont think BJ is factoring the 65% plus against him and tactical voting. I can see Remain Tories being elected on a Remain Tory platform in Remain seats. I cannot see how BJ, the Tory party or Leave benefit from a masochist strategy!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.

    Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
    As we're on a war footing how do you see the best way of stopping this? You are after all vehemently against such idiocy. What's the plan?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    “War”.

    Get a grip.
    Have you seen some of the hysterical posts from remainers on here last couple of days?

    Plenty of hyperbole from both sides.
    I have been away for the weekend. If you can point to any Remainers describing the Brexit debate as a war I will happily give them the same advice.
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    At least this week will provide us wih the definitive list of those Conservative MPs who have a higher opinion of themselves than the voters.

    They will soon, rightly, no longer be Conservative MPs.

    I hadn’t heard the ERG were being expelled?!
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    Is Boris eligible to be Trumps VP in 2020? Might be his next jolly jape now he has given up on being PM......
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917

    Both sides of the Brexit argument should be relieved we are finally arriving at a conclusion.

    My hope is after we have left the country can come together and move forward leaving the angst of the last 3 years behind us.

    The way in which we are proceeding to a conclusion pretty much guarantees that this is very far from over.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401
    edited September 2019

    Both sides of the Brexit argument should be relieved we are finally arriving at a conclusion.

    My hope is after we have left the country can come together and move forward leaving the angst of the last 3 years behind us.

    You do realise that with a no deal this will drag on for the next 10 years and beyond at a conservative estimate. I mean we'll still have to trade with the EU or did you plan to make up the shortfall with Tonga?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Cyclefree said:

    There are a number of Tory MPs who are standing down at the next election and therefore couldn’t care less about deselection: Harrington, Clarke, Bebb, Letwin.

    Any I’ve missed?


    Hope this helps

    Conservative

    David Tredinnick Bosworth
    Glyn Davies Montgomeryshire
    Guto Bebb Aberconwy
    Jeremy LeFroy Stafford
    Ken Clarke Rushcliffe
    Oliver Letwin West Dorset
    Richard Harrington Watford

    Labour

    Albert Owen Ynys Mon
    Geoffrey Robinson Coventry NW
    Gloria De Piero Ashfield
    Jim Fitzpatrick Popular and Limehouse
    Kate Hoey Vauxhall
    Keven Barron Rother Valley
    Roberta Blackman-Woods City of Durham
    Ronnie Campbell Blyth Valley
    Stephen Pound Ealing N
    Stephen Twigg Liverpool West Derby
    Theresa Pearce Erith and Thamesmead

    Lib Dems

    Norman Lamb North Nortfolk
    Vince Cable Twickenham

    Independent

    Nick Boles Grantham
    Thank you.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
    Why wouldn't you just sell it on the open market?
    Can't get rid of the tenants by the sounds of it :p
    No they are good tenants and I would rather be free of the hassle of owning a property that I neither want or need. Given the cost and hassle I’d settle for 80% and hope the family renting it at present can make a good future knowing they aren’t going to be kicked out
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Is Boris eligible to be Trumps VP in 2020? Might be his next jolly jape now he has given up on being PM......

    That's up to Sergey Lavrov.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    edited September 2019

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

    I’m not just being a pedant - the difference is real. MPs standing down will have wound down their public appearances, their association chairmen will be looking for replacements, there will be locals who have been supporting various applicants etc.

    It’s a whole lot more difficult to turn that into an independent candidacy.

    My guess is that a former cabinet minister standing against his own party would attract a great deal of attention.

    Johnson must be tearing Cumming's remaining hair out wondering what more he has to do to get the support of the 12 to 16% of electors who hitherto have declined to switch from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives? Might that get their attention?
    A tranche of BXP voters are ex-Labour and unlikely to switch to the Tories whatever happens.
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    Is Boris eligible to be Trumps VP in 2020? Might be his next jolly jape now he has given up on being PM......

    Sadly I think he gave up his US citizenship
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,085
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
    Why wouldn't you just sell it on the open market?
    Can't get rid of the tenants by the sounds of it :p
    No they are good tenants and I would rather be free of the hassle of owning a property that I neither want or need. Given the cost and hassle I’d settle for 80% and hope the family renting it at present can make a good future knowing they aren’t going to be kicked out
    Have you asked them if they want to buy it off you?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
    Why wouldn't you just sell it on the open market?
    Can't get rid of the tenants by the sounds of it :p
    No they are good tenants and I would rather be free of the hassle of owning a property that I neither want or need. Given the cost and hassle I’d settle for 80% and hope the family renting it at present can make a good future knowing they aren’t going to be kicked out
    Have you asked them if they want it? You don't have to wait for the government to tell you what to sell it for.
  • Options
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    I do not disagree but trying to score political points over the deaths of people is bad taste. I would ask would the same point be made if the deaths were predominantly remainers
    I score no political points except the ludicrous idea of thinking that we should be bound by a vote supposedly representing the "will of the people" over 3 years ago (as if it's Holy Writ) when many of them are no longer here - so don't care, and very many of them were never asked and very much do care.
    I accept there has been a demographic change and a referendum today could reverse the decision. However, what if it is the same margin reversed

    For me any further referendum must have more than a simple majority to take effect

    I do not support no deal and hope Boris to gets one
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited September 2019
    Floater said:
    Just when you think things couldn't get worse, old Marxism McDonnell comes along to remind us that he thinks property is theft.

    I wonder what Corbyn Jnr will think about his little nest egg going down in value?

    And this stuff is just for starters.
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    It's a shame the 'rump remainers' as they will be post leaving the EU will still not accept the result.

    The Tories will be delighted of course, it will be manna from heaven at every future GE painting Labour/LD's as 5th Columnists working against their own country.

    It's one thing battling against leaving the EU but quite another to be supporting the other side against your own country once you've left.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,962

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    If high profile figures like Grieve, Hammond, Gayle, Clarke and Letwin did stand as independent Conservatives in their constituencies, I wonder how many votes they’d get.

    Letwin is standing down.

    Things change.

    I’m not just being a pedant - the difference is real. MPs standing down will have wound down their public appearances, their association chairmen will be looking for replacements, there will be locals who have been supporting various applicants etc.

    It’s a whole lot more difficult to turn that into an independent candidacy.

    My guess is that a former cabinet minister standing against his own party would attract a great deal of attention.

    +1
    Boris is employing Trump style politics from a two party system into a multi-party UK system. I dont think BJ is factoring the 65% plus against him and tactical voting. I can see Remain Tories being elected on a Remain Tory platform in Remain seats. I cannot see how BJ, the Tory party or Leave benefit from a masochist strategy!
    The alternative to that is that he unites 100% (or close enough, give or take a few BXP stragglers) of leavers behind him while splitting the remain vote in half. Metropolitan elites to the Lib Dems, while Labour piles up useless votes in safe seat territories (where they may face a greater challenge from BXP than Con target seatS).
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:
    Actually depending on the discount I’d be quite happy to sell the house I let to the tenants if it was 20% off market value I’d bite their hands off
    Why wouldn't you just sell it on the open market?
    Can't get rid of the tenants by the sounds of it :p
    No they are good tenants and I would rather be free of the hassle of owning a property that I neither want or need. Given the cost and hassle I’d settle for 80% and hope the family renting it at present can make a good future knowing they aren’t going to be kicked out
    Have you asked them if they want it? You don't have to wait for the government to tell you what to sell it for.
    Quite right, may even do that
  • Options

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs.

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    I do not disagree but trying to score political points over the deaths of people is bad taste. I would ask would the same point be made if the deaths were predominantly remainers
    I would not take it personally. I agree it is not a very attractive way to fight an argument. I think it is just as important to reflect the fact that 1 million young voters will be on the electoral register as the number of those who are no longer with us
    It is a fair point. However, we all need to respect life - it is so precious
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401

    It's a shame the 'rump remainers' as they will be post leaving the EU will still not accept the result.

    The Tories will be delighted of course, it will be manna from heaven at every future GE painting Labour/LD's as 5th Columnists working against their own country.

    It's one thing battling against leaving the EU but quite another to be supporting the other side against your own country once you've left.

    I think you're over dramatising it.

    There will be nothing wrong with wanting a closer relationship with the EU after we have left.
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    Floater said:
    Just when you think things couldn't get worse, old Marxism McDonnell comes along to remind us that he thinks property is theft.

    I wonder what Corbyn Jnr will think about his little nest egg going down in value?

    And this stuff is just for starters.
    This is what the takeover of the conservative party by Bluekip will lead to for the country. Tory and Labour MPs should be ashamed of themselves for what they have done to their parties.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,085

    It's a shame the 'rump remainers' as they will be post leaving the EU will still not accept the result.

    The Tories will be delighted of course, it will be manna from heaven at every future GE painting Labour/LD's as 5th Columnists working against their own country.

    It's one thing battling against leaving the EU but quite another to be supporting the other side against your own country once you've left.

    What you on about? I’ve been an EU citizen for all but 2 years of my life.
  • Options

    At least this week will provide us wih the definitive list of those Conservative MPs who have a higher opinion of themselves than the voters.

    They will soon, rightly, no longer be Conservative MPs.

    I hadn’t heard the ERG were being expelled?!
    And there lies the hypocrisy
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    It's weird that the tory party is breaking and could still win an election. We get what we deserve I suppose.
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    RattersRatters Posts: 798

    Cummings whole strategy depends on Corbyn agreeing to an election basically?

    I think there are three main sides to this latest manoeuvre:

    1) The stated one: try and get the rebels to back down, even though that's unlikely to work

    2) Avoid the same rebels sitting in the next parliament, as then he would need a bigger majority to implement no deal

    3) Give him an excuse to call for a general election once his majority is lost on the promise of it taking place before 31 October

    If I was Corbyn I would refuse to be bounced into an election if Johnson calls for one before an extension is agreed. Johnson would be weaker if the election is after 31 October with an extension than if it is before. Forcing him to abandon his "do or die" pledge will help the Brexit party over the Conservatives.
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    What you on about? I’ve been an EU citizen for all but 2 years of my life.

    Well, i'd enjoy it while you still can.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    The Tory Party has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over, in 1 of those polls Corbyn Labour was just 1% ahead of the LDs and in another just 3% ahead of the LDs.

    If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit

    Except he won’t have delivered Brexit and won’t be able to govern.

    Boris will have committed to deliver Brexit and if necessary will prorogue Parliament past October 31st to ensure it is delivered.
    I really think you need some kind of help.
    The people who need help are diehard Remainers defying the will of the people, this is war now
    getting on for 1 million Leavers dead already and going at about 6,000 per week
    Of all the arguments that is one that is more than unpleasant and demonstates political ambition is greater than peoples individual iives. It is just unnecessary
    Demographics! I know people who voted Remain who are no longer with us as well. Sad to see anyone go but death is part of life and those left behind are more important than who have departed.
    I do not disagree but trying to score political points over the deaths of people is bad taste. I would ask would the same point be made if the deaths were predominantly remainers
    I score no political points except the ludicrous idea of thinking that we should be bound by a vote supposedly representing the "will of the people" over 3 years ago (as if it's Holy Writ) when many of them are no longer here - so don't care, and very many of them were never asked and very much do care.
    I accept there has been a demographic change and a referendum today could reverse the decision. However, what if it is the same margin reversed

    For me any further referendum must have more than a simple majority to take effect

    I do not support no deal and hope Boris to gets one
    I dont think introducing different restrictions on a second referendum is quite fair.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited September 2019
    Ratters said:

    Cummings whole strategy depends on Corbyn agreeing to an election basically?

    I think there are three main sides to this latest manoeuvre:

    1) The stated one: try and get the rebels to back down, even though that's unlikely to work

    2) Avoid the same rebels sitting in the next parliament, as then he would need a bigger majority to implement no deal

    3) Give him an excuse to call for a general election once his majority is lost on the promise of it taking place before 31 October

    If I was Corbyn I would refuse to be bounced into an election if Johnson calls for one before an extension is agreed. Johnson would be weaker if the election is after 31 October with an extension than if it is before. Forcing him to abandon his "do or die" pledge will help the Brexit party over the Conservatives.
    I still think the best tactic for Remainers is to do nothing. Wait for the clock to 31st October to run down. BoZo does not actually want No Adela and by mid-Oct the impending chaos will force him to extend
This discussion has been closed.