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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the

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    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So you do not believe that all those who make the law should be elected. Neither you nor I have any say whatsoever in, for example, the selection of the members of the Enlarged Board of Appeal of the European Patent Office (a non-EU body) who can decide on what can and cannot be patented in the UK, whatever the UK government might think.

    The European Parliament ratifies and rejects proposed laws. It cannot make them.

    No I do believe that all those who make the law should be elected.

    The EP is a legislature. It ratifies, rejects and I believe amends proposed laws. It absolutely should be elected.

    Quangos should be kept to a minimum but don't make the law they operate within the confines of the laws the legislature has passed and can be overriden or even abolished by a change of the law if the electorate so demand. If the UK government chooses to leave the Enlarged Board of Appeal of the European Patent Office then it should have the right to do so.

    The judiciary implements and interprets the laws the legislature has passed but if a subsequent Parliament passes a law overriding the judiciaries decision then judiciary should and must let the subsequent law take precedence.

    In the same way with, say, EFTA membership if the UK no longer wishes to be part of the single market and customs union it could withdraw. It could also pull out of the backstop if it so wished - or it could agree with the EU that the people of Northern Ireland would have the right to pull out of the backstop if it were NI only.


    "If"

    If the EU agreed that the backstop could be unilaterally removed then that would be fine with me I've said that. They haven't and are vehemently against that, so no.
    What about a free trade zone. What if NI was made one of those? Would that be ok?
    So long as their voters were happy with that, could change that and got to vote on laws that apply to them then yes of course.
    They wouldn't be able to vote on it, it would be Westminster.
    Wouldn't they be electing MPs to Westminster?
    10 of them.
    So they're voting on it then.
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    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.
    Also in teaming up with Corbyn. Same mistake as Clegg made.

    Now it is Boris v Corbyn and whatshername will not get a look in.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930

    isam said:

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    There is no such thing as an unedited digital image.

    Not strictly true, though I doubt an uncropped raw has ever made it straight to a front page unedited in the age of digital imagery.

    e to lighten/darken everything, but could be wrong.
    It can [I think] be done but it isn't easy and simply wouldn't be done.

    believable.
    Think cricket in poor light on TV. Plenty of scope for whole image enhancement.
    Indeed but OKC was [I think] asking about enchancing an individual not the whole image. It can be done, indeed you could change a video where an individual morphs into Christopher Walken if you so desired, but I don't think it would be done for TV news.
    here.

    See my later post.
    The camera never lies is a statement that belongs to a period that is well in the past, if it was ever true.

    For example, didn't Sir A Conan Doyle have pictures of fairies?
    This is pretty scary on the latest camera ‘lies’...

    “The criminal running the Grandparent Scam calls or emails the victim, pretending to represent a grandchild who is now in trouble with the law or who needs money for a hospital bill for an injury that can’t be discussed, say, with parents, because of the moral trouble that might ensue. They generally call late at night—say at four in the morning—because that adds to the confusion. The preferred mechanism of money movement is wire transfer—and that’s a warning: don’t transfer money by wire without knowing for certain who is receiving it, because once it’s gone, it’s not coming back.

    Now what if it was possible to conduct such a scam using the actual voice of the hypothetical victim? Worse, what if was possible to do so with voice and video image, indistinguishable from the real thing? If we’re not at that point now (and we probably are) we will be within months.”


    https://www.jordanbpeterson.com/blog-posts/i-didnt-say-that/
    Wtf is Peterson talking about? These are cold calls, made en masse, designed to get a lot of money from a very small proportion of callers. They're not spending time researching their victims and developing a whole spoof identity around the supposed relative
    He’s talking about the ability to show someone saying stuff in their exact voice they they didn’t say and how it could be used for bad
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Here's a thing. It's Remainers who want a general election and Leavers who don't:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1167437878793789441
  • Options

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
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    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930

    isam said:

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    There is no such thing as an unedited digital image.

    Not strictly true, though I doubt an uncropped raw has ever made it straight to a front page unedited in the age of digital imagery.

    e to lighten/darken everything, but could be wrong.
    It can [I think] be done but it isn't easy and simply wouldn't be done.

    believable.
    Think cricket in poor light on TV. Plenty of scope for whole image enhancement.
    Indeed but OKC was [I think] asking about enchancing an individual not the whole image. It can be done, indeed you could change a video where an individual morphs into Christopher Walken if you so desired, but I don't think it would be done for TV news.
    here.

    See my later post.
    The camera never lies is a statement that belongs to a period that is well in the past, if it was ever true.

    For example, didn't Sir A Conan Doyle have pictures of fairies?
    This is pretty scary on the latest camera ‘lies’...

    “The criminal running the Grandparent Scam calls or emails the victim, pretending to represent a grandchild who is now in trouble with the law or who needs money for a hospital bill for an injury that can’t be discussed, say, with parents, because of the moral trouble that might ensue. They generally call late at night—say at four in the morning—because that adds to the confusion. The preferred mechanism of money movement is wire transfer—and that’s a warning: don’t transfer money by wire without knowing for certain who is receiving it, because once it’s gone, it’s not coming back.

    Now what if it was possible to conduct such a scam using the actual voice of the hypothetical victim? Worse, what if was possible to do so with voice and video image, indistinguishable from the real thing? If we’re not at that point now (and we probably are) we will be within months.”


    https://www.jordanbpeterson.com/blog-posts/i-didnt-say-that/
    I am regularly getting calls at work from withheld numbers that immediately hang up. I've come to the conclusion that they are trying to get a recording of my voice.

    I do not give my name when answering such calls.

    Could be. Scary
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    Where's the MORI voting intention?
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,305

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    Quite right. Will Javid even be involved in writing the next Budget, or will Cummings just hand him what he has to read out five minutes before?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    He'd be a fool to resign over this, especially since evidence might emerge showing the person was guilty.

    I can understand him being angry at lack of consultation, but you don't throw away the pinnacle of your professional career a few weeks in for this.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2019

    Here's a thing. It's Remainers who want a general election and Leavers who don't:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1167437878793789441

    lol, should be the other way round according to Curtice.

    Remain needs another referendum, leave is better off with a General Election.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
  • Options

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    Actually I think the Chancellor was warned, as were the SPADs. Everyone was warned what the consequences would be of Gross Misconduct.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    😁😂
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    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908



    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    Ludicrously optimistic since a) they may have wrong person b) Gavin Williamson is in cabinet.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Imaginary friends are a sign of a lively, creative mind. But they are leaving us
    Daisy Buchanan

    Research suggests that fewer children have invisible playmates. We must help them rediscover the art of being bored"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/30/imaginary-friends-creative-mind-children
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,783
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Has anyone picked up that in Shetland last night BOTH Labour and the Tories lost their deposits? Indeed they got such a hammering that they wouldn't have saved one adding their votes together.

    That must be pretty rare.

    But it does feel that the people of Shetland may be speaking for the country on how they view the Westminster performance of the 'big two'

    SNP still below the 37% they got in Orkney and Shetland in 2015
    It's a tedious game, but how did the SCon candidate's performance in Shetland last night compare to O&S in 2015, or indeed 2017?
    More than the SCons got in Shetland in 2011
    With progress like that, they should be able to save their deposit in the 2099 election....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
  • Options

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    Quite right. Will Javid even be involved in writing the next Budget, or will Cummings just hand him what he has to read out five minutes before?

    It’s clear Cummings will be signing it off and will redline anything he doesn’t like. I wonder if Johnson will bother looking it over.

  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    edited August 2019
    Scott_P said:
    What magnificent pompous nonsense. Great stuff. Good theatre. Absolute substitution activity for people who can organise for what they don't want but can't organise for what they do. Keeps the wolf from the door and their children from starving for some constitutional lawyers and their penurious instructing solicitors.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    felix said:

    felix said:

    @HYUFD constantly tells us that Boris is representing the ‘silent majority’ and then just ignores any evidence to the contrary. If Boris was delivering the Brexit the majority wanted then that would clearly show in the polls

    Was it Mao or Stalin that said "Repeat a lie often enough and it will become the truth"?

    Maybe that explains the Brexiteer strategy?

    @HYUFD is certainly apt in repeating lies and misleading statements ad nauseam.
    I did a bit of Googling and found this quote by Goebbels (1941)

    "The essential English leadership secret does not depend on particular intelligence. Rather, it depends on a remarkably stupid thick-headedness. The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it. They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous"

    It is almost like he could peer 78 years into the future and see Boris :open_mouth:
    Dear Diary, today the Remainers were happily quoting the insight of Goebbels.....
    Yup - and they really did crush the saboteurs. The hypocricy on display is epic.
    I will just remind you that "Crush the Saboteurs" came from a Brexit supporting newspaper with a picture of a PM negotiating our exit from the EU.

    Nothing to do with Remainers.
    OMG You miss the point spectacularly. It was rightly condemned at the time for the tone by lots of remainers. and let's not forget yesterday's suggestion by Philip Pullman that he'd like Boris to be strung up.
    For which he apologised almost straight away, acknowledging such suggestions are indefensible. As they are.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    Other polls are not so good for them.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
    None.

    The EU Parliament is democratic - the backstop is not. Hence why I have no qualms with Remaining and was a Remainer for almost all my life. Hence why I've said though its not my preference even Remaining would be better than leaving into the backstop.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    TOPPING said:

    The trick to me was always giving NI something it could tout as a "special economic status" which would help bring in much-needed commercial activity.

    The DUP should be able sell that to their supporters. Especially if Boris throws in a feasability study for a tunnel/bridge combo to Scotland and so on to England --> Europe.

    Agree. Everyone needs to find a way to climb down with honour. If Boris can point to Teeside and other regions and say - as with them, so with NI, then absolutely. SEZ sounds positively positive.

    Will such practicality come to pass? Not sure. Would Francois, et al be equally persuaded? Hope so.
    Not a chance
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    He will not give up the dosh and the fancy cars for something as small as emasculation and humiliation. Best paid clerks in the country.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    And yet again, YouGov have had to heavily downweight Remainers in their sample.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
    Main policy or only policy?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
    None.

    The EU Parliament is democratic - the backstop is not. Hence why I have no qualms with Remaining and was a Remainer for almost all my life. Hence why I've said though its not my preference even Remaining would be better than leaving into the backstop.
    We could leave the backstop any time we wanted to. Just like the EU.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930

    And yet again, YouGov have had to heavily downweight Remainers in their sample.

    Because political opinion poll panels over represent the politically engaged?
  • Options

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.

    Obviously, it’s just one poll, but we’re still in August - and No Deal is still very abstract.

  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,121

    Here's a thing. It's Remainers who want a general election and Leavers who don't:

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1167437878793789441

    I have long thought that the enthusiasm gap could really hurt the Tories at the next election, especially if coupled with significant tactical voting by Remainers. I think this poll provides evidence for that - Labour voters and Remainers are hungry for a chance to vote and stop the country's descent into disaster (as they see it).
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    Who knows ?

    Cummins is a jumped up little shit, from the sound of it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-was-not-told-in-advance-of-advisers-sacking-by-cummings
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    Other polls are not so good for them.

    What are hypothetical opinion polls for if not to give people of all political persuasions ammo for endless nit picking and point scoring?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
    And run by the unelected appointee of a man without a mandate, other than the votes of a handful of party members.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,761

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
    Its main policy is not to exit the EU but to get someone other than the govt to arrange a further extension.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Has anyone picked up that in Shetland last night BOTH Labour and the Tories lost their deposits? Indeed they got such a hammering that they wouldn't have saved one adding their votes together.

    That must be pretty rare.

    But it does feel that the people of Shetland may be speaking for the country on how they view the Westminster performance of the 'big two'

    SNP still below the 37% they got in Orkney and Shetland in 2015
    It's a tedious game, but how did the SCon candidate's performance in Shetland last night compare to O&S in 2015, or indeed 2017?
    More than the SCons got in Shetland in 2011
    And more than double what the SCons got in Shetland in 2019.

    We could describe last night as the final point of the downward trajectory of the arc of the Ruth Davidson years, or the BJ effect...
    There was a further swing from SLab to SCon last night with the SNP still below its 2015 voteshare
    It’s like trying to debate religion with a member of Islamic State.
    He truly is bonkers. The SCons got absolutely whipped yesterday in Shetland and HY is droning on about how well they did. He is just beyond reason.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
    Its main policy is not to exit the EU but to get someone other than the govt to arrange a further extension.
    That's the dream.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    Nigelb said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    Who knows ?

    Cummins is a jumped up little shit, from the sound of it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-was-not-told-in-advance-of-advisers-sacking-by-cummings
    Well we didn't really need to judge Johnson by the company he keeps because we know what he is like. For those more gullible folk who feel they like Mr Charlatan, maybe they should take a closer look at the repulsive individual that BoZo has allowed to be his puppet master
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Topping, the point of the backstop is that we can't leave whenever we like...
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462
    TOPPING said:


    I have certainly agreed that it won't be armageddon although frankly I have no idea what the effects of no deal will be.

    I am not entirely convinced that our trump card is the £30bn. An "emergency" contribution from members would yield that in an instant should it be required. It really is a pinprick compared with each member state's budget (although not the EU's budget).

    Having exhausted the German carmakers and the Italian prosecco makers as our potential saviours, I really don't see the budget contribution as being the game changer and of frightening the EU into capitulation.

    What is it that we've exhausted exactly? So far the countries wherein lie the prosecco and car makers have (thanks to our politicians following the Topping school of negotiation) had a choice between giving us a deal we can accept, and giving us a deal we cannot accept, but cannot refuse, meaning we stay in. I don't blame them for giving us a shit deal - it's purely down to their good nature we haven't been asked to give them the Crown jewels, the Isle of Wight, and breakfast in bed three times a week.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    edited August 2019
    Oh my God.

    Someone break it to Neil Kinnock, his Sheffield Rally is no longer the most cringeworthy embarrassing shouting in British political history 😳🙈🤣

    Bet Boris is shitting himself, the F word makes it so scary!!

    https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1166796565429870592?s=21
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    New market

    Next GE - Thurrock (Con Maj 345, Jackie Doyle-Price MP)

    Con 2/5
    Bxp 4/1
    Lab 4/1
    LD 100/1
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    isam said:

    Oh my God.

    Someone break it to Neil Kinnock, his Sheffield Rally is no longer the most cringeworthy embarrassing shouting in British political history 😳🙈🤣

    Bet Boris is shitting himself, the F word makes it so scary!!

    https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1166796565429870592?s=21

    Pathetic
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
    None.

    The EU Parliament is democratic - the backstop is not. Hence why I have no qualms with Remaining and was a Remainer for almost all my life. Hence why I've said though its not my preference even Remaining would be better than leaving into the backstop.
    We could leave the backstop any time we wanted to. Just like the EU.
    Fine, then lets leave it instantly via not entering it.

    Oh wait no, that defeats the point of a backstop doesn't it?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
    Its main policy is not to exit the EU but to get someone other than the govt to arrange a further extension.
    Yepp.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462

    Scott_P said:
    A pause for one whole day!?

    OMG this changes everything! How could we have been so blind as to lead to a one day pause in production! I'm sorry everyone, oh so sorry. I was wrong, very wrong, I never realised we would lose an ENTIRE DAY of production. What can we do to prevent this!?
    Don't say the word 'pause' so loud please, we've just got through one round of street protests.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    And yet again, YouGov have had to heavily downweight Remainers in their sample.

    Because political opinion poll panels over represent the politically engaged?
    We don't know why. But a lot of pollsters seem to have a problem reaching enough Leavers. The possibilities include:

    1) false recall
    2) Leave respondents lying or shy
    3) some Leavers are hard to reach
    4) the turnover in the electorate has changed the appropriate sample
    5) political opinion poll panels are not sufficiently representative of the public

    YouGov have shown that 1 and 2 are in the mix, because the same respondents are giving different answers to this question from what they gave a couple of years ago.

    As to what it all means, that's unclear.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Isam, it is indeed rather Monty Python.

    One hopes an enterprising coconut salesman made a mint off the crowd of individuals.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited August 2019
    deleted
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    F1: second practice over. Bottas a tiny bit faster than Hamilton in both so far.

    Hard to judge the comically large advantage Ferrari appear to have.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mrs C, didn't Mr. Thompson vote remain? [Apologies if I've misremembered].
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
    Prosecute. Under the Official Secrets Act.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    edited August 2019

    TOPPING said:


    I have certainly agreed that it won't be armageddon although frankly I have no idea what the effects of no deal will be.

    I am not entirely convinced that our trump card is the £30bn. An "emergency" contribution from members would yield that in an instant should it be required. It really is a pinprick compared with each member state's budget (although not the EU's budget).

    Having exhausted the German carmakers and the Italian prosecco makers as our potential saviours, I really don't see the budget contribution as being the game changer and of frightening the EU into capitulation.

    What is it that we've exhausted exactly? So far the countries wherein lie the prosecco and car makers have (thanks to our politicians following the Topping school of negotiation) had a choice between giving us a deal we can accept, and giving us a deal we cannot accept, but cannot refuse, meaning we stay in. I don't blame them for giving us a shit deal - it's purely down to their good nature we haven't been asked to give them the Crown jewels, the Isle of Wight, and breakfast in bed three times a week.
    We haven't negotiated any deal brainbox, the WA was drawn up so that we could then negotiate a deal.

    Plus you are hinging everything on a piddly £30bn. And that is supposed to be a good negotiating tactic? LOL
  • Options

    F1: second practice over. Bottas a tiny bit faster than Hamilton in both so far.

    Hard to judge the comically large advantage Ferrari appear to have.

    Here's one way of judging-

    Belgium Grand Prix Winner (BFE)
    Hamilton 3.15
    Vettel 3.9
    Le Clerc 3.9
    (slow coach) Bottas 9.4
    Verstappen 11.5

    I'm thinking Le Clerc at the price ?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Mrs C, didn't Mr. Thompson vote remain? [Apologies if I've misremembered].

    I am sure he will inform us - in any case, someone else had more or less duplicated the post downthread so I deleted it
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
    None.

    The EU Parliament is democratic - the backstop is not. Hence why I have no qualms with Remaining and was a Remainer for almost all my life. Hence why I've said though its not my preference even Remaining would be better than leaving into the backstop.
    We could leave the backstop any time we wanted to. Just like the EU.
    Fine, then lets leave it instantly via not entering it.

    Oh wait no, that defeats the point of a backstop doesn't it?
    We could leave it whenever we wanted. But we are a law-abiding nation which enters into agreements for mutually beneficial outcomes. The backstop is one of those agreements wherein we have to give up a degree of absolute autonomy in return for a benefit for us and so does the EU.

    Short of a colouring book I'm not sure how else to keep explaining this to you.
  • Options
    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    I think you'll find she has been speaking to the media and that's why she was fired.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    edited August 2019

    Nigelb said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has ben and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    Who knows ?

    Cummins is a jumped up little shit, from the sound of it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-was-not-told-in-advance-of-advisers-sacking-by-cummings
    Well we didn't really need to judge Johnson by the company he keeps because we know what he is like. For those more gullible folk who feel they like Mr Charlatan, maybe they should take a closer look at the repulsive individual that BoZo has allowed to be his puppet master
    we didn't really need to judge Johnson by the company he keeps

    can we judge him by his recent critics ?

    Hugh Grant - lots of children by different women and that unfortuate incident in LA

    John Major - Edwina - nuff said

    Corbyn - more wives than BoJo and those exotic trips to East Germany

    Its hard to take the moral high ground when theyre all in the swamp.

  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:
    A pause for one whole day!?

    OMG this changes everything! How could we have been so blind as to lead to a one day pause in production! I'm sorry everyone, oh so sorry. I was wrong, very wrong, I never realised we would lose an ENTIRE DAY of production. What can we do to prevent this!?
    Don't say the word 'pause' so loud please, we've just got through one round of street protests.
    Trying to be funny is a very, very high risk strategy for Leavers atm. They are in danger of looking like that US tv comic with his go on Donald, I double dare you to run for president shtick - i.e., like complete dorks.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited August 2019

    New market:

    Next GE - Watford (Con Maj 2,092, Richard Harrington MP)

    Con 1/3
    LD 7/2
    Lab 6/1

    (Shadsy)

    Rather surprising given the 2017 result


    Conservative Richard Harrington 26,731 45.6 +2.2
    Labour Chris Ostrowski 24,639 42.0 +16.0
    Liberal Democrat Ian Stotesbury 5,335 9.1 -9.0
    UKIP Ian Green 1,184 2.0 -7.7
    Green Alex Murray 721 1.2 -1.1

    Majority
    2,092 3.6 -13.8


    It is an area where the LDs do much better at Local Elections.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Those net Brexit-handling satisfaction numbers:

    Boris -15%

    Corbyn -55%

    Swinson - 29%

    Farage - 27%

    Boris playing a blinder......
    Said this before but the LibDems made a big mistake voting in a lightweight leader. Ed Davey would be much more credible. They made exactly the same mistake with choosing Farron over Lamb.

    What the numbers show is that compared to the other three Swinson is not as well known.

    Yes - but a big danger for her and the LDs is to get too close to Corbyn. She knows it but is being outplayed at the moment. Any hint of Corbyn getting his reins on power could see switchers return to the blues.

    YouGov shows a four point rise for the LDs. I’m not sure that indicates they are being outplayed.

    For the first time, YouGov also has an absolute majority saying the decision to leave was wrong.
    53:31 say that the prorogation was wrong.

    Most interestingly, 72% think the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU badly (52% very badly). This is not a government with any real support for its main policy.
    And run by the unelected appointee of a man without a mandate, other than the votes of a handful of party members.
    If your "handful" has 138,000 fingers, you must be from Norfolk.....
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
    Prosecute. Under the Official Secrets Act.
    Being fired is an offence? If she was disclosing stuff about her work then yes, the OSA would apply, but to disclose what is effectively a personnel matter concerning her own employment?
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
    None.

    The EU Parliament is democratic - the backstop is not. Hence why I have no qualms with Remaining and was a Remainer for almost all my life. Hence why I've said though its not my preference even Remaining would be better than leaving into the backstop.
    We could leave the backstop any time we wanted to. Just like the EU.
    Fine, then lets leave it instantly via not entering it.

    Oh wait no, that defeats the point of a backstop doesn't it?
    We could leave it whenever we wanted. But we are a law-abiding nation which enters into agreements for mutually beneficial outcomes. The backstop is one of those agreements wherein we have to give up a degree of absolute autonomy in return for a benefit for us and so does the EU.

    Short of a colouring book I'm not sure how else to keep explaining this to you.
    No we don't have to give it up. You want us to, that's different to having to do so.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    Nigelb said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has ben and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    Who knows ?

    Cummins is a jumped up little shit, from the sound of it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-was-not-told-in-advance-of-advisers-sacking-by-cummings
    Well we didn't really need to judge Johnson by the company he keeps because we know what he is like. For those more gullible folk who feel they like Mr Charlatan, maybe they should take a closer look at the repulsive individual that BoZo has allowed to be his puppet master
    we didn't really need to judge Johnson by the company he keeps

    can we judge him by his recent critics ?

    Hugh Grant - lots of children by different women and that unfortuate incident in LA

    John Major - Edwina - nuff said

    Corbyn - more wives than BoJo and those exotic trips to East Germany

    Its hard to take the moral high ground when theyre all in the swamp.

    You forgot Tom Watson for whom the word odious is inadequate.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    I think you'll find she has been speaking to the media and that's why she was fired.
    You know this for certain, do you?

    There's been a proper disciplinary process and legal advice obtained to make sure that the dismissal was fair, both substantively and procedurally, has there?

    There's no question, is there, that she might be acting as a whistleblower, in which case, firing her would land the government in deep - and expensive - trouble?

    Or are you just making up shit because you're assuming what you would like to be true?

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    I have certainly agreed that it won't be armageddon although frankly I have no idea what the effects of no deal will be.

    I am not entirely convinced that our trump card is the £30bn. An "emergency" contribution from members would yield that in an instant should it be required. It really is a pinprick compared with each member state's budget (although not the EU's budget).

    Having exhausted the German carmakers and the Italian prosecco makers as our potential saviours, I really don't see the budget contribution as being the game changer and of frightening the EU into capitulation.

    What is it that we've exhausted exactly? So far the countries wherein lie the prosecco and car makers have (thanks to our politicians following the Topping school of negotiation) had a choice between giving us a deal we can accept, and giving us a deal we cannot accept, but cannot refuse, meaning we stay in. I don't blame them for giving us a shit deal - it's purely down to their good nature we haven't been asked to give them the Crown jewels, the Isle of Wight, and breakfast in bed three times a week.
    We haven't negotiated any deal brainbox, the WA was drawn up so that we could then negotiate a deal.

    Plus you are hinging everything on a piddly £30bn. And that is supposed to be a good negotiating tactic? LOL
    The judgment of May's deal as "shit" is largely a rhetorical one, as most people never bothered to work out exactly what it entailed, beyond getting highly excited about a NI arrangement which had and has the support of the majority of NI's electorate.

    To be fair that was more May's responsibility than anyone else's, as she went out of her way not to sell it to anyone, and left the field open for two years of condemnation from both hard Brexiteers and hard Remainers.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Briskin, hard to tell between Vettel and Leclerc at the moment, I think.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Cyclefree said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    I think you'll find she has been speaking to the media and that's why she was fired.
    You know this for certain, do you?

    There's been a proper disciplinary process and legal advice obtained to make sure that the dismissal was fair, both substantively and procedurally, has there?

    There's no question, is there, that she might be acting as a whistleblower, in which case, firing her would land the government in deep - and expensive - trouble?

    Or are you just making up shit because you're assuming what you would like to be true?

    I think you'll find that latter supposition is correct. :smile:
  • Options

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
    Prosecute. Under the Official Secrets Act.
    Being fired is an offence? If she was disclosing stuff about her work then yes, the OSA would apply, but to disclose what is effectively a personnel matter concerning her own employment?
    She was leaking official secrets which was a Gross Misconduct offence for which she was sacked but not yet prosecuted. Just because the case hasn't been handed to the Police yet doesn't mean it can't be.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
    Prosecute. Under the Official Secrets Act.
    Being fired is an offence? If she was disclosing stuff about her work then yes, the OSA would apply, but to disclose what is effectively a personnel matter concerning her own employment?
    She may have been given the choice: go quietly, signing this NDA with gagging clauses- or not and be prosecuted.

    We don't know.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    edited August 2019



    She was leaking official secrets which was a Gross Misconduct offence for which she was sacked but not yet prosecuted. Just because the case hasn't been handed to the Police yet doesn't mean it can't be.

    Do you have a scintilla of evidence to justify that libellous allegation ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-was-not-told-in-advance-of-advisers-sacking-by-cummings
    Downing Street made clear that Khan was not being blamed for the leak of the Yellowhammer documents on no-deal planning. A senior government source said: “Sonia Khan was not responsible for the Yellowhammer leak.”

    Whitehall sources confirmed that the reason Khan was dismissed on the spot was because she had been in contact with people from a group of Conservative politicians working against Johnson by trying to work out ways to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and that she had lied about her contact with them.

    Three other women in senior advisory, policy and organisational roles in the Conservative party have also left since Johnson became prime minister.

    Sources close to the government have described an emerging pattern in the way they have been dismissed, which they have described as “opaque and shocking” and not always involving a clear explanation of what they have done wrong.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyclefree said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    I think you'll find she has been speaking to the media and that's why she was fired.
    You know this for certain, do you?

    There's been a proper disciplinary process and legal advice obtained to make sure that the dismissal was fair, both substantively and procedurally, has there?

    There's no question, is there, that she might be acting as a whistleblower, in which case, firing her would land the government in deep - and expensive - trouble?

    Or are you just making up shit because you're assuming what you would like to be true?

    Errm, he just said fired - not lawfully fired, or justifiably fired - so I don't see that any of that is really on point.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,658
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    It all sounds too precipitate for that. Apparently she was a staunch Leave supporter too.

    Boris isn't going to have many friends with Cummings as his axeman.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So they're voting on it then.

    You mean you would be happy if a group had limited but absolutely democratic input via the votes of elected representatives into the decisions of a larger body politic in which sometimes they would get their way and sometimes they wouldn't? And which they were happy to take part because overall they see plenty of benefit to such an arrangement?

    You would be happy with such a system? Is that what you are saying?
    I'm saying that would be a fine system yes, it would be democratic.

    I've never said otherwise. Ask @SouthamObserver we've had this discussion repeatedly.
    Excellent. And the difference between the arrangement I've outlined above and the UK's membership of the EU is what?
    None.

    The EU Parliament is democratic - the backstop is not. Hence why I have no qualms with Remaining and was a Remainer for almost all my life. Hence why I've said though its not my preference even Remaining would be better than leaving into the backstop.
    We could leave the backstop any time we wanted to. Just like the EU.
    Fine, then lets leave it instantly via not entering it.

    Oh wait no, that defeats the point of a backstop doesn't it?
    We could leave it whenever we wanted. But we are a law-abiding nation which enters into agreements for mutually beneficial outcomes. The backstop is one of those agreements wherein we have to give up a degree of absolute autonomy in return for a benefit for us and so does the EU.

    Short of a colouring book I'm not sure how else to keep explaining this to you.
    No we don't have to give it up. You want us to, that's different to having to do so.
    How do you view negotiations? You get everything you want? The other side does? This is precisely the problem. If you put your old Remainer hat on you will see that the WA including the backstop is a very sensible best arrangement possible for what is a hugely sensitive issue. Issues, if you include the EU citizens, which as we are seeing is turning into a car crash.

    But no - you have got HYUFD disease. Everything is in absolutes. But it needn't be and is not the egregious surrender you think it is. It simply isn't but, as they say there is nothing worse than a reformed smoker/drinker/remainer and I don't expect you to reclaim any of the balance you once had.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    I think you'll find she has been speaking to the media and that's why she was fired.
    You know this for certain, do you?

    There's been a proper disciplinary process and legal advice obtained to make sure that the dismissal was fair, both substantively and procedurally, has there?

    There's no question, is there, that she might be acting as a whistleblower, in which case, firing her would land the government in deep - and expensive - trouble?

    Or are you just making up shit because you're assuming what you would like to be true?

    Errm, he just said fired - not lawfully fired, or justifiably fired - so I don't see that any of that is really on point.
    He also accused the lady of leaking official secrets and suggested she be prosecuted.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462
    edited August 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    I have certainly agreed that it won't be armageddon although frankly I have no idea what the effects of no deal will be.

    I am not entirely convinced that our trump card is the £30bn. An "emergency" contribution from members would yield that in an instant should it be required. It really is a pinprick compared with each member state's budget (although not the EU's budget).

    Having exhausted the German carmakers and the Italian prosecco makers as our potential saviours, I really don't see the budget contribution as being the game changer and of frightening the EU into capitulation.

    What is it that we've exhausted exactly? So far the countries wherein lie the prosecco and car makers have (thanks to our politicians following the Topping school of negotiation) had a choice between giving us a deal we can accept, and giving us a deal we cannot accept, but cannot refuse, meaning we stay in. I don't blame them for giving us a shit deal - it's purely down to their good nature we haven't been asked to give them the Crown jewels, the Isle of Wight, and breakfast in bed three times a week.
    We haven't negotiated any deal brainbox, the WA was drawn up so that we could then negotiate a deal.

    Plus you are hinging everything on a piddly £30bn. And that is supposed to be a good negotiating tactic? LOL
    Arguing on semantics is as good as losing. You'll be critiquing my sentence structure next.

    Nor am I hinging 'everything' on a 'piddling' 30bn, I merely made the clearly somewhat radical suggestion that the EU would like the sum in its bank account rather than ours.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    It all sounds too precipitate for that...
    Again, who knows.
    I wouldn't be surprised if he has a form letter NDA for these occasions...
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
    Prosecute. Under the Official Secrets Act.
    Being fired is an offence? If she was disclosing stuff about her work then yes, the OSA would apply, but to disclose what is effectively a personnel matter concerning her own employment?
    She was leaking official secrets which was a Gross Misconduct offence for which she was sacked but not yet prosecuted. Just because the case hasn't been handed to the Police yet doesn't mean it can't be.
    Wow! You actually KNOW? The rest of us were just speculating because.... we weren't there.

    Unlike you it would seem ...
  • Options
    Sky Ticker - Bozo: "I'm afraid that the more our friends and partners think at the back of their minds that Brexit might be stopped in the uk by parliament the less likely they are to give us the deal we need."

    Spot on Bozo, No-Deal Brexit nailed on because of sulky remainers.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    Probably sacked with a compromise agreement and nda
    It all sounds too precipitate for that. Apparently she was a staunch Leave supporter too.

    Boris isn't going to have many friends with Cummings as his axeman.
    Good
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    @Philip_Thompson is once again ranting on about something with certainty on which he knows nothing about.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    AndyJS said:

    "Imaginary friends are a sign of a lively, creative mind. But they are leaving us
    Daisy Buchanan

    Research suggests that fewer children have invisible playmates. We must help them rediscover the art of being bored"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/30/imaginary-friends-creative-mind-children

    Daisy Buchanan!? Who's the editor: Bruce Wayne??
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    What can they do? Sack her twice?
    Prosecute. Under the Official Secrets Act.
    Being fired is an offence? If she was disclosing stuff about her work then yes, the OSA would apply, but to disclose what is effectively a personnel matter concerning her own employment?
    She may have been given the choice: go quietly, signing this NDA with gagging clauses- or not and be prosecuted.

    We don't know.
    Exactly. We don’t know.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Viewcode, lots of politicians these days seem to have voter-repelling Batspray.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    I have certainly agreed that it won't be armageddon although frankly I have no idea what the effects of no deal will be.

    I am not entirely convinced that our trump card is the £30bn. An "emergency" contribution from members would yield that in an instant should it be required. It really is a pinprick compared with each member state's budget (although not the EU's budget).

    Having exhausted the German carmakers and the Italian prosecco makers as our potential saviours, I really don't see the budget contribution as being the game changer and of frightening the EU into capitulation.

    What is it that we've exhausted exactly? So far the countries wherein lie the prosecco and car makers have (thanks to our politicians following the Topping school of negotiation) had a choice between giving us a deal we can accept, and giving us a deal we cannot accept, but cannot refuse, meaning we stay in. I don't blame them for giving us a shit deal - it's purely down to their good nature we haven't been asked to give them the Crown jewels, the Isle of Wight, and breakfast in bed three times a week.
    We haven't negotiated any deal brainbox, the WA was drawn up so that we could then negotiate a deal.

    Plus you are hinging everything on a piddly £30bn. And that is supposed to be a good negotiating tactic? LOL
    Arguing on semantics is as good as losing. You'll be critiquing my sentence structure next.

    Nor am I hinging 'everything' on a 'piddling' 30bn, I merely made the clearly somewhat radical suggestion that the EU would like the sum in its bank account rather than ours.
    Semantics? The WA was a preliminary agreement so that we could negotiate a trade deal, the famous future trading relationship. That's substance not semantics.

    And as for the £30bn we established that that's all you are basing your negotiating position on.

    Either the threat of no deal is calamitous and will force the EU to the negotiating table, or it is nothing to worry about so the EU will ignore it in much the same way that you are. It has to be one and you haven't told me which it is.
  • Options
    ab195ab195 Posts: 477

    isam said:

    And yet again, YouGov have had to heavily downweight Remainers in their sample.

    Because political opinion poll panels over represent the politically engaged?
    We don't know why. But a lot of pollsters seem to have a problem reaching enough Leavers. The possibilities include:

    1) false recall
    2) Leave respondents lying or shy
    3) some Leavers are hard to reach
    4) the turnover in the electorate has changed the appropriate sample
    5) political opinion poll panels are not sufficiently representative of the public

    YouGov have shown that 1 and 2 are in the mix, because the same respondents are giving different answers to this question from what they gave a couple of years ago.

    As to what it all means, that's unclear.
    It’s an interesting statistical question. At what point are you correcting your sample by so much that you should conclude your “correction” methodology is wrong?

    I’d like to leave the EU, but I can tell the difference between what I’d like to be popular and what is. It’s hard to look at any cross section of polls and conclude the public wouldn’t vote to remain if the vote was tomorrow.

    Now I’d argue a chunk of them would be doing so through fear and could be persuaded in a campaign and/or would lose their pro-EU views if we left and it was ok; but I have no evidence for that and you probably think something else. Either way - that’s for the future and as a snapshot, the british people certainly don’t want a No Deal as I do, and they may very well just wish to Remain.

    There’s been enough of a shift, somehow, to tinker with past vote weighting assumptions and that makes me nervous of what we can learn from straight up voting intentions.

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    justin124 said:

    Javid has been emasculated and humiliated. I genuinely cannot believe he has not resigned.

    LOL!

    The PM has always had the right to fire all SPADs. Firing a SPAD who committed Gross Misconduct after being warned what the consequences would be if they continued to commit Gross Misconduct is anything but emasculation and humiliation.

    The leaking culture needs to end and this may do it.

    A key member of the Chancellor’s team has been fired without the Chancellor being consulted or even warned. Cummings has shown total contempt for Javid. He has shown the world that he is entirely irrelevant and that his input is of absolutely no importance. That is the very essence of emasculation and humiliation.

    I am surprise the lady has not yet spoken to the media. Perhaps she is agreeing a deal with a Sunday newspaper!
    I think you'll find she has been speaking to the media and that's why she was fired.
    You know this for certain, do you?

    There's been a proper disciplinary process and legal advice obtained to make sure that the dismissal was fair, both substantively and procedurally, has there?

    There's no question, is there, that she might be acting as a whistleblower, in which case, firing her would land the government in deep - and expensive - trouble?

    Or are you just making up shit because you're assuming what you would like to be true?

    Errm, he just said fired - not lawfully fired, or justifiably fired - so I don't see that any of that is really on point.
    He does not know she was speaking to the media. He knows nothing about the circumstances of the case at all. He is making assumptions.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,997
    edited August 2019
    Just had a 'nuisance' call from an 01296 number; someone purporting to represent a firm called "Call Guardian'. Guy ..... heavy South Asian accent ...... knew my name. I think he was trying to sign me up to some protection racket.
    His number's on my 'Call Protect' now. 01296 is Aylesbury.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    To cheer us up...

    ‘Huge drugs bust’ at Gatwick turns out to be vegan cake mix
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/30/drugs-bust-gatwick-airport-vegan-cake-mix
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    I have certainly agreed that it won't be armageddon although frankly I have no idea what the effects of no deal will be.

    I am not entirely convinced that our trump card is the £30bn. An "emergency" contribution from members would yield that in an instant should it be required. It really is a pinprick compared with each member state's budget (although not the EU's budget).

    Having exhausted the German carmakers and the Italian prosecco makers as our potential saviours, I really don't see the budget contribution as being the game changer and of frightening the EU into capitulation.

    What is it that we've exhausted exactly? So far the countries wherein lie the prosecco and car makers have (thanks to our politicians following the Topping school of negotiation) had a choice between giving us a deal we can accept, and giving us a deal we cannot accept, but cannot refuse, meaning we stay in. I don't blame them for giving us a shit deal - it's purely down to their good nature we haven't been asked to give them the Crown jewels, the Isle of Wight, and breakfast in bed three times a week.
    We haven't negotiated any deal brainbox, the WA was drawn up so that we could then negotiate a deal.

    Plus you are hinging everything on a piddly £30bn. And that is supposed to be a good negotiating tactic? LOL
    Arguing on semantics is as good as losing. You'll be critiquing my sentence structure next.

    Nor am I hinging 'everything' on a 'piddling' 30bn, I merely made the clearly somewhat radical suggestion that the EU would like the sum in its bank account rather than ours.
    Semantics? The WA was a preliminary agreement so that we could negotiate a trade deal, the famous future trading relationship. That's substance not semantics.

    And as for the £30bn we established that that's all you are basing your negotiating position on.

    Either the threat of no deal is calamitous and will force the EU to the negotiating table, or it is nothing to worry about so the EU will ignore it in much the same way that you are. It has to be one and you haven't told me which it is.
    It's a Schroedinger's No Deal.

    Terrifies the EU, but nothing for us to bother out little heads about.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,128

    Sky Ticker - Bozo: "I'm afraid that the more our friends and partners think at the back of their minds that Brexit might be stopped in the uk by parliament the less likely they are to give us the deal we need."

    Spot on Bozo, No-Deal Brexit nailed on because of sulky remainers.

    Spot on.

    Behave in a calamitously stupid and dishonest way, then try to blame everyone else in sight.

    Spot on for Boris Johnson, anyhow.
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