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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-el
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections
Many people have said the reason why Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader, and Prime Minister, was to stop one thing and one thing alone from happening, and that one was Conservative voters flooding to the Brexit Party and following his consistent statements of “We are leaving on October 31st 2019” local by-elections since his election do seem to indicate that is precisely what has happened.
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Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
There's still a small but credible chance the Lib Dems will do very well indeed at the next election. They should certainly make significant gains, but there's the opportunity for enormous gains if things fall their way and they play their cards right.
Given their main adversaries are led by Johnson and Corbyn, that's rather helpful for them.
"We'll give you an innings for buttons - and still win.
Cheats."
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;event=1;filter=advanced;innings_number=1;innings_number=2;orderby=team_score;orderbyad=reverse;result=1;runsmax1=99;runsval1=runs;size=200;template=results;type=team;view=innings
"The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.
Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.
“We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html
Well they can feck right off and live in their Islamic paradise
"I’ve seen some remarkable cricket moments in my life but that is the best I’ve seen in over 50 years"...
Apart from providing a home for anti semitic nut jobs I mean
Hard to understand why Labour would want or allow an election under current polling.
A bit like a coin theoretically landing perfectly on its edge when tossed.
How many times can one man knock one out to Labours demise without realising he has prematurely ejaculated again!
Seems fair to me.
Chance to vote against a racist and their little helper from a previous coalition, will be Labour's riposte.
200 Majority for Tories
Just like in 2017
While Boris has won back most Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party, Corbyn has not won back most Remainers who have defected to the LDs
It keeps reverting to a score from about 20 overs ago, which is very annoying.
But today it's gone disastrously wrong and it's showing England won by one wicket. So it's become pretty much unusable.
Anyone know how I can fix it?
Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.
It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.
Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.
35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes those who would just revoke). 26% back leaving without a Deal at all. 7% back Theresa May's Deal while 17% back an alternative deal which keeps the UK in the SM and CU so that might be the vote for BINO. 15% are Don't Knows and I can't say I blame them.
There will be those who will claim with 50% there is a clear mandate for LEAVE - er, no, there isn't. A third of those backing leave want to do so on a basis which the current Conservative Government could not accept - continued membership of the SM and CU has been explicitly ruled out as it would leave us unable to do any trade deals an would effectively leave us as a "vassal state".
Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.
The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.
For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.
Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.
In other words they didn't roll over like poodles to the US demands. No wonder The Donald is so much happier about doing a trade deal with us now that we're about to Brexit.
What and this is supposed to be a victory for Boris?
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/23/why-we-dont-trust-the-news-anymore/
"Why we don’t trust the news anymore
Journalists think it is their job to ‘correct’ the opinions of voters.
Fraser Myers"
Boris is not crap.
Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends
I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this?
And enjoying the sunshine.
The cricket proved a nice backdrop.
The LDs were also polling nowhere near as high then as they are now. When the 2017 general election was called for example Yougov had the LDs on just 12% compared to 20% now and those extra LD votes are mainly coming from Labour
They also seem to get by far the least media coverage. Behind Abe, Trudeau, and even the EU rep.
Does anyone care what they have to say?
If you say Corbyn or Swinson.
You could do the same.
Boris works fine for me thanks
For a start, it addresses a speech given by a single journalist, and expands that gp ‘journalists’.
And if you’d actually listened to Byrne’s speech, she was talking about situations where politicians tell blatant untruths, not where they express opinions she might not share.
Her point that testable facts are not a matter of public opinion seems a fair one to me, FWIW.
Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.
So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.
But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.
*It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.
Talking of large organs...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/458720-joe-walsh-announces-republican-challenge-to-trump
This is why I'm a member of the Lancashire CCC and Yorkshire CCC.
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1165650554225405955
Not saying it could not and does not happen, it does, but I think there's a bit of wishful thinking that noble journos calling out the sketchy politicians will be as problem free as pretended.
The last two tests are during my next stint as editor of PB, I'll be able to put my feet up at the tests and not worry about what's going on in the world of politics right?
@jeremycorbyn
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1h
What an innings by Ben Stokes to keep the #Ashes alive for England.
And that must go down as the best 1* ever from Jack Leach.
Yet another reason that Test cricket should be free to watch on TV.
What’s not to love?
Jeremy Corbyn
@jeremycorbyn
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1h
What an innings by Ben Stokes to keep the #Ashes alive for England.
And that must go down as the best 1* ever from Jack Leach.
Yet another reason that Test cricket should be free to watch on TV.
It's the 17% I don't understand. Even if every Conservative MP were to be replaced by a Labour-voting doppelganger overnight (England won the cricket, stranger things have happened) the new Corbyn Government would face the same EU negotiators.
The EU have agreed a WA - it can't be renegotiated. Setting an extension achieves nothing - Corbyn would have to revoke and then re-start A50 to get a new WA. If he had a 100 seat majority he could probably do that - if he led a minority administration dependent on the support of other parties, perhaps not.
As an aside, given we know some of the ERG such as Redwood will never vote for the WA and given some other Conservatives such as Hammond are adamantly opposed to a No Deal, Johnson needs more than just to win a majority - he's going to need a minimum 70 seat gap to provide headroom to see off rebels.
Should Hammond be de-selected following his letter to the Prime Minister? If Runnymede & Weybridge Conservatives re-adopt him, should the constituency association be suspended and a pro-Johnson candidate be imposed by CCHQ?