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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If BJohnson is planning an election the numbers continue to lo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If BJohnson is planning an election the numbers continue to look good
August is generally a month when we see fewer Westminster voting polls and it’s probably because of the possibility of an early election that this year we’ve seen as many surveys as we have.
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Its because 99% of the public don't keep up with the political horseplay. Lib Dems are seen as the bollocks to brexit party and Jezza is at best a fence sitter.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8rjix1cm2t/TheTimes_190821_VI_w.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/23/greggs-to-develop-vegan-versions-of-all-its-bestselling-foods
Look at your own numbers, not anyone else's.
It would be a bold decision by Bozo.
Geordie street food. Go rave about that, Rick Stein.
Basically, two buckets of voters that never mix.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1164892397492461568
They realise this, and hence the backing away from what Bozo said off the cuff in Berlin.
https://twitter.com/spikedonline/status/1164870059698937857?s=20
Same with @The_Taxman. Plenty of Boris-kickers plus those who will revert to red.
@DavidL great post btw on the border thread about your father/family. It is much much more difficult for others to understand the reality, absurd as it was, without such first hand experience.
I agree in 2017 in general. In St Albans however the Labour vote stayed flat.
In 2019 it is the middle class vote which has left Labour.
I think that Boris would probably quite like an election with Corbyn still in charge of Labour, with Brexit to squeeze TBP, with the remain vote splitting quite so evenly between Labour and the Lib Dems. But it really has to be forced upon him, not sought out.
Con 349
Lab 203
LD 41
Brexit 0
Green 1
SNP 35
PC 3
NI 18
https://order-order.com/2019/08/23/southend-labour-choose-coarse-candidate/
The two companies which between them were spot on in predicting the Labour vote share in the 2019 Euro elections - YouGov and Ipsos - currently have Labour at 22% and 24%. All the other companies overstated the Labour share by miles.
I take it that you are aware of the studies that show that some people are unwilling to tell pollsters in 2019 that they voted Labour in 2017, contrary to their responses in 2017, and that weighting schemes are therefore susceptible to overweighting those who claim to be 2017 Labour voters in their polling schemes and thus exaggerating the Labour vote share. YouGov, Ipsos and Kantar, unlike the other companies, are not vulnerable to this problem as they do not have to rely verbatim on 2019 recall of 2017 voting in their weighting models.
Once again we see the poll as a piece of political propaganda with its "facts" and "evidence" to be used and abused.
A GE campaign with four major parties is going to be something different. Farage and Swinson aren't going to be sidelined and we will have all sorts of ructions over televised debates and their format.
Corbyn and Johnson will no doubt stick to pretty pictures at events stuffed with loyalists - I'm still to be convinced Johnson can handle the really tough questioning without retreating into blustering but we'll see.
We can probably say "Bollocks to Baxter" though that would be unnecessarily brusque to Martin as would saying the slightly kinder "UNS is USEless" but it may well be and regional and even constituency polling will be more valuable.
This will be an election unlike any other and unlike most contests the Conservatives face a battle on three fronts because the BP will snapping at them in their core northern heartlands while the LDs will be attacking in the south and south west.
The vote numbers suggest the Conservatives will benefit from a divided opposition but it doesn't always work that way and sometimes it can be the leading party which finds himself picked off from all sides. 32% may win a majority now, 31% won 165 seats in 1997 so the margins are much thinner.
As others have said, now may be the time, indeed now may be the only time,
To be fair all political parties get people who say or do things that most people would not. I think social media has debased human interaction and it is not something I utilise. But I will never stand for election as I cannot be bothered with the hassle!
The other huge advantages Johnson enjoys are a) Jeremy Corbyn and b) the fact the opposition aren't united. There are two distinct factions at work whose only communality is stopping a No Deal. One group wants to stop the Brexit process completely via revocation of A50 while the other wants to honour the 23/6/16 result but with an agreed and much better deal than currently exists.
Within that, there are those who would like a second vote with the public offered the chance to approve May's WA and those who would not. This is the problem - we could seek an extension for two years (let's say) but contingent on the existing A50 agreement being torn up and a new one negotiated.
The problem is everyone is tired and wants it "over with" - extending it until 2021 or beyond would be unendurably frustrating.
They are just toxic playing with the planet, our children and animals
It needs total rejection by all sane people
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/aug/23/lancashire-to-release-haseeb-hameed-at-end-of-county-season-cricket
Might another county rehabilitate him ?
He had, and just possibly still has, huge potential.
they have no real intention of doing much work rather theyll bluster and debate, and line themselves up for a blame game,
The Mirror can also reveal Mr O'Mara has submitted paperwork for his resignation as an MP, dated for when Parliament returns in September.
I had my doubts about that. And I would assume such paperwork is not yet irreversible.
I’ve nothing against Lancashire (other than ancient prejudice), but I do wonder if a change of scene might not make the difference.
i) Headingley is swinging more than it has ever done before (Cricviz analysis proves this)
ii) The bowling attacks of both sides are very very high quality, much better than the batting lineups.
iii) A hellacious amount of technical flaws on both sides batting.
iv) Players aren't used to pushing through the tough stuff in order to get in so much with the far easier for batting white ball stuff they play plenty of.
During its investigation, the BBC uncovered staff running the MP's office without the proper security clearance required by Parliamentary authorities.
Perhaps it was impossible to come up with a Deal which would have passed the Commons with the arithmetic of the 2017 GE called by May which was supposed to provide her with a majority with which she could have forced through the WA.
Yes, it's her fault - possibly against her better judgement, she went for a GE gamble and it failed. She should have walked on the Friday morning and allowed Boris or whoever to get whatever Deal he could but she didn't. Her overactive sense of duty gland kicked in and the result has been two years of paralysis by division and self-indulgence.
And yet apparently it's all the Opposition's fault. Now, I'm no fan of Corbyn by any stretch but I don't blame him for being opportunistic - had he acquiesced, I believe the WA would have passed, May would have quit and the new leader (Boris?) would have gone for a GE taking credit for the Conservatives for getting us out of the EU. I think he would have won big so I can understand why Corbyn didn`t want to play ball.
Yet it is all his fault - the Conservatives of course had the numbers to get the WA over the line had they been a disciplined united party instead of a self-seeking rabble but the truth is this entire exercise has been about the Conservative Party trying to resolve its long-lasting tedious fixation with Europe.
With hindsight, once they got back into office in 2010 some sort of showdown was inevitable - Cameron hoped a GE victory might buy him some loyalty and unity but it did not. It would have been so much easier if the Party had split in Opposition in the 2000s.
My own opinion is that Boris will achieve some change to the backstop and it will be sufficient to present it to the HOC on a free vote with rejection resulting in no deal
Now, many on here may take task with me and of course I could be wrong but it is not entirely fanciful.