Rubbish. No deal ( which I do not favour) perfectly squares your circle. We would’ve left very meaningfully (!) and kept the U.K. under the same regulatory regime.
Sure WTO terms, and Varadkar is left with a problem telling his masters in Brussels what he’s doing about policing the single market, but that doesn’t make leaving impossible for us.
What I mean is it is very difficult to achieve both of the following -
UK leaves SM/CU. No border in Ireland.
No Deal does the 1st but not the 2nd. It messes that up.
Rubbish. No deal ( which I do not favour) perfectly squares your circle. We would’ve left very meaningfully (!) and kept the U.K. under the same regulatory regime.
Sure WTO terms, and Varadkar is left with a problem telling his masters in Brussels what he’s doing about policing the single market, but that doesn’t make leaving impossible for us.
What I mean is it is very difficult to achieve both of the following -
UK leaves SM/CU. No border in Ireland.
No Deal does the 1st but not the 2nd. It messes that up.
EU membership doesn't do the second. The border already exists.
It's worth repeating the key facts. Ireland can't afford a hard border, whether conceded through a lack of a backstop or through No Deal. Northern Ireland can afford it ten times less. Ireland won't willingly align itself with the UK outside of the Single Market, nor will the other Member states require it to. Which means the backstop will be the number one requirement for any deal of any kind with any of the countries that we share a continent with.
It's time to face those facts.
Please explain why, once we have left, the backstop makes logical sense
For the reasons I set out in my comment of 8.33. Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, can't afford a hard border, which will happen absent some version of the backstop being agreed. Ireland will refuse to leave the Single Market and the EU won't want to force it to do so. Ireland and the EU will insist on a backstop before agreeing a deal about pretty much anything.
Additionally the US won't agree a trade deal, which seems to be some kind of fetish amongst Brexiteers.
In short, Brexit is too much hard work without a backstop.
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Antrim and Down hsve been part of the UK for hundreds of years and ate the counties closest to GB, if they wish to stay part of the UK they must do so.
Being a monarchist member of the LDs makes you a woke Meghan Markle fan nothing more
You're a bit early to say "hundreds". Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for 198 years, less than 2 centuries. If NI decides to leave the UK it must follow as surely as Scotland and Remain parts of England must leave the EU - unless you are a total hypocrite of course.
Nice line by the way. Keep it up and you may develop a sense of humour.
The Act of Union with Ireland was in 1810 and Antrim and Down were part of the British crown before that too.
Nationalists in Remain voting Northern Ireland and Scotland are trying to secede from the Leave voting UK to stay in the EU so of course Unionists in Unionist voting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland could vote to secede from an enlarged Republic of Ireland and an independent Scotland and rejoin the UK if those votes went that way
Your ignorance is astounding. The Act of Union passed in 1800 and came into force on 1 January 1801
Until the first half of the 17th century that area of Ireland led the resistance to the Crown before the Plantation removed its native population - and even them most of the settlers were Scots. It is hardly bound to the UK as fastly as you suggest.
Antrim and Down have not existed as local government units since 1972 anyway.
So as I said Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for over 200 years, being part of the Crown for even longer before that.
Every Westminster seat in Antrim is held by the DUP and every local authority area in Antrim voted Leave in the EU referendum
I remain relatively sanguine about the Irish situation. Largely because neither side wants to go back to where we were. And because the RoI is not the priest ridden economic backwater of the 60's. And neither is Northern Ireland the quasi apartheid State it was. Least I hope so.
The Gordian knot cutting solution of course is a border poll with a pro unity outcome. And it is obligatory under GFA to hold one if it looks likely that would be the result. So there's a context in which opinion polls actually matter.
Oh dear. But I’m starting to think things are looking up. Clearly Boris and Cummings have backed off from the No Deal nonsense (if that was ever anything other than a ruse to seize the leadership). I suspect the last few days have been orchestrated with our EU friends - to soften up the Tories and the eurosceptic press into accepting the backstop.
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
Potentially yes, I certainly think there would be a case for keeping the Scottish borders in the UK if they voted No and Scotland as a whole voted Yes to independence
On that basis I assume you are fine with Scotland and London remaining in the EU? Or are you just talking out of your hole?
There is no clear evidence yet Scotland prefers to Leave the UK to join the EU than stay in the UK and Leave the EU.
London does not have an independence party unlike Scotland
Does Dumfries and Galloway have an independence from Scotland party? Look at what partition has done to Ireland, then think twice before casually discussing partitioning my homeland from whatever grim corner of the home counties you are holed up in. English people really need to get some self awareness before taking this kind of crap about carving up other people’s countries.
It likely would do very soon if it voted strongly No to leaving the UK and Scotland voted Yes.
As far as I am concerned my country is the UK and you want to carve up my country so don't complain if I even discuss carving up what you think of as yours
I am a European so you have already carved that up. The UK isn't a country, it is a state. I’m not a Scot Nat but taking Scotland out of the EU against its will is an unforgivable insult to Scotland and has sadly convinced me that the UK is an abusive relationship as far as Scotland is concerned. Hearing you discuss giving off bits of Scotland only amplifies that message.
If you only supported the Union as long as Scotland was in the EU, you were never really much of a Unionist anyway
It's worth repeating the key facts. Ireland can't afford a hard border, whether conceded through a lack of a backstop or through No Deal. Northern Ireland can afford it ten times less. Ireland won't willingly align itself with the UK outside of the Single Market, nor will the other Member states require it to. Which means the backstop will be the number one requirement for any deal of any kind with any of the countries that we share a continent with.
It's time to face those facts.
Please explain why, once we have left, the backstop makes logical sense
For the reasons I set out in my comment of 8.33. Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, can't afford a hard border, which will happen absent some version of the backstop being agreed. Ireland will refuse to leave the Single Market and the EU won't want to force it to do so. Ireland and the EU will insist on a backstop before agreeing a deal about pretty much anything.
Additionally the US won't agree a trade deal, which seems to be some kind of fetish amongst Brexiteers.
In short, Brexit is too much hard work without a backstop.
You are wrong.
If the UK can survive fine without a backstop then a deal becomes optional, nice to have, not necessary. The barrier on the backstop is that it is undemocratic and against principles of freedom, that trumps something that is nice to have. I can live without a US trade deal, we already don't have one.
OTOH as you said Ireland can't afford a hard border. The way to make a hard border go away is to agree a deal. A deal resolves the border issue, resolves the WTO MFN issue [doesn't apply if there's a deal] and resolves the integrity of the Single Market issue. If the barrier to all that is the backstop, then the backstop must go.
Only reason to cling to the backstop given is that the UK will fold. If the UK doesn't the backstop is worse than pointless, it is self-defeating.
Rubbish. No deal ( which I do not favour) perfectly squares your circle. We would’ve left very meaningfully (!) and kept the U.K. under the same regulatory regime.
Sure WTO terms, and Varadkar is left with a problem telling his masters in Brussels what he’s doing about policing the single market, but that doesn’t make leaving impossible for us.
What I mean is it is very difficult to achieve both of the following -
UK leaves SM/CU. No border in Ireland.
No Deal does the 1st but not the 2nd. It messes that up.
Well the Irish/EU would have to get creative ( as they will) to avoid border infrastructure. checks away from the border: trusted trader, intelligence, discreet checks on the Rosslare to Roscoff ferry. Schrodingers border.
Just like there’s no passport control between NI and GB but you have to have ID to get on a ferry or a plane, and though there’s no passport control as you land ( heaven forfend!) there’s always coincidentally those burley special branch looking blokes just standing around “looking” as you go through.
It’s s border stuck out in the NW Atlantic on an island. It’s not like it’s Strasbourg/Kehl. It’s really not hard if the Irish just got off their high absolutist horse just a bit.
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
The Gordian knot cutting solution of course is a border poll with a pro unity outcome. And it is obligatory under GFA to hold one if it looks likely that would be the result. So there's a context in which opinion polls actually matter.
Given most Westminster seats in Northern Ireland are held by the DUP even after Brexit and the largest number of MLA seats pre suspension were also held by the DUP there is no requirement for a border poll, especially as Boris will ensure an open border in Ireland regardless of the Brexit outcome anyway
The Gordian knot cutting solution of course is a border poll with a pro unity outcome. And it is obligatory under GFA to hold one if it looks likely that would be the result. So there's a context in which opinion polls actually matter.
Well, yes. Ironically, the Unionists could wield king making powers in every Irish election for the foreseeable future. Equally ironically it would be a little too liberal a society for them.
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
It's worth repeating the key facts. Ireland can't afford a hard border, whether conceded through a lack of a backstop or through No Deal. Northern Ireland can afford it ten times less. Ireland won't willingly align itself with the UK outside of the Single Market, nor will the other Member states require it to. Which means the backstop will be the number one requirement for any deal of any kind with any of the countries that we share a continent with.
It's time to face those facts.
Please explain why, once we have left, the backstop makes logical sense
For the reasons I set out in my comment of 8.33. Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, can't afford a hard border, which will happen absent some version of the backstop being agreed. Ireland will refuse to leave the Single Market and the EU won't want to force it to do so. Ireland and the EU will insist on a backstop before agreeing a deal about pretty much anything.
Additionally the US won't agree a trade deal, which seems to be some kind of fetish amongst Brexiteers.
In short, Brexit is too much hard work without a backstop.
You are wrong.
If the UK can survive fine without a backstop then a deal becomes optional, nice to have, not necessary. The barrier on the backstop is that it is undemocratic and against principles of freedom, that trumps something that is nice to have. I can live without a US trade deal, we already don't have one.
OTOH as you said Ireland can't afford a hard border. The way to make a hard border go away is to agree a deal. A deal resolves the border issue, resolves the WTO MFN issue [doesn't apply if there's a deal] and resolves the integrity of the Single Market issue. If the barrier to all that is the backstop, then the backstop must go.
Only reason to cling to the backstop given is that the UK will fold. If the UK doesn't the backstop is worse than pointless, it is self-defeating.
I didn't say the UK can't survive (except possibly losing a chunk or two of its territory - which is one form of the Backstop incidentally). Ireland can survive too. Northern Ireland maybe not so much.
There comes a time though when a Johnson type figure will say, Brexit is worth a backstop, or less likely Brexit is cancelled.
Antrim and Down hsve been part of the UK for hundreds of years and ate the counties closest to GB, if they wish to stay part of the UK they must do so.
Being a monarchist member of the LDs makes you a woke Meghan Markle fan nothing more
You're a bit early to say "hundreds". Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for 198 years, less than 2 centuries. If NI decides to leave the UK it must follow as surely as Scotland and Remain parts of England must leave the EU - unless you are a total hypocrite of course.
Nice line by the way. Keep it up and you may develop a sense of humour.
The Act of Union with Ireland was in 1810 and Antrim and Down were part of the British crown before that too.
Nationalists in Remain voting Northern Ireland and Scotland are trying to secede from the Leave voting UK to stay in the EU so of course Unionists in Unionist voting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland could vote to secede from an enlarged Republic of Ireland and an independent Scotland and rejoin the UK if those votes went that way
Your ignorance is astounding. The Act of Union passed in 1800 and came into force on 1 January 1801
Until the first half of the 17th century that area of Ireland led the resistance to the Crown before the Plantation removed its native population - and even them most of the settlers were Scots. It is hardly bound to the UK as fastly as you suggest.
Antrim and Down have not existed as local government units since 1972 anyway.
So as I said Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for over 200 years, being part of the Crown for even longer before that.
Every Westminster seat in Antrim is held by the DUP and every local authority area in Antrim voted Leave in the EU referendum
Have you ever been to NI? It is such a complex situation on the ground that your ill-informed judgements would amount to a massive sellout of people more patrotic than you...
ake. If you think No Deal is no problem then good luck to you.
I'm struggling to understand what the Irish are going to do to us if we stick up a border that consists of a myopic octagenarian and a very long bit of string. Invade? Put up a border of their own?
Call. Their. Bluff.
Put up a border of their own, in due course as our regulations start to deviate from the EU. If they don't, they'll find that their own free movement of goods to the continent is endangered (because goods considered dodgy by the Eu - hormone beef etc. - will come in via the UK).
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Russians...
Vlad of course might take the view that geopolitically he’d be better off courting us than screwing us around. Second fronts and all that.
Now we should tell him to bugger off of course. Unless the EU were overly unfriendly.....
I have no idea why remainers seem to think Ireland is their trump card.
"You can't leave the EU, the Irish won't let us" is bound to return a stonking majority for No Deal if that is the reason why an election is called.
People voted to leave because we are sick of being told by foreign countries what we can and cannot do with our own borders.
If our border checks with Ireland consist of two huts and an arthritic eighty year old night watchman with myopia, job done.
That runs two ways. The Irish see the backstop as necessary because they have a far greater history than us of being told what to do by an overseas power. They are not going to abandon it so we have a choice to make. If you think No Deal is no problem then good luck to you.
I'm struggling to understand what the Irish are going to do to us if we stick up a border that consists of a myopic octagenarian and a very long bit of string. Invade? Put up a border of their own?
Call. Their. Bluff.
The issue is not, and has never been, the Irish.
The issue is that by deliberately choosing not to impose tariffs (or other checks) on one country with whom we do not have an FTA, we would be in breach of our treaty obligations under the GATT and WTO treaties of 1947 and 1986.
Now, there are some people who (correctly) say the WTO moves slowly (it does). The process would be that a country like Brazil brings a case to the WTO saying that Britain treated its beef exports differently to Ireland's. Brazil would win said case (in about 18 months time) and the WTO would fine us. (Which we could choose not to pay, should we so desire.) Ultimately, the WTO, like the EU, has no real way to enforce its decisions.
It is, however, worth remembering that mid-sized countries like... errrr... us benefit most from a rules based trading system like the WTO. If we flagrantly ignore the WTO and chose not to pay its fines, we would be hastening its demise. This does not end well for us.
Antrim and Down hsve been part of the UK for hundreds of years and ate the counties closest to GB, if they wish to stay part of the UK they must do so.
Being a monarchist member of the LDs makes you a woke Meghan Markle fan nothing more
You're a bit early to say "hundreds". Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for 198 years, less than 2 centuries. If NI decides to leave the UK it must follow as surely as Scotland and Remain parts of England must leave the EU - unless you are a total hypocrite of course.
Nice line by the way. Keep it up and you may develop a sense of humour.
The Act of Union with Ireland was in 1810 and Antrim and Down were part of the British crown before that too.
Nationalists in Remain voting Northern Ireland and Scotland are trying to secede from the Leave voting UK to stay in the EU so of course Unionists in Unionist voting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland could vote to secede from an enlarged Republic of Ireland and an independent Scotland and rejoin the UK if those votes went that way
Your ignorance is astounding. The Act of Union passed in 1800 and came into force on 1 January 1801
Until the first half of the 17th century that area of Ireland led the resistance to the Crown before the Plantation removed its native population - and even them most of the settlers were Scots. It is hardly bound to the UK as fastly as you suggest.
Antrim and Down have not existed as local government units since 1972 anyway.
So as I said Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for over 200 years, being part of the Crown for even longer before that.
Every Westminster seat in Antrim is held by the DUP and every local authority area in Antrim voted Leave in the EU referendum
Have you ever been to NI? It is such a complex situation on the ground that your ill-informed judgements would amount to a massive sellout of people more patrotic than you...
I have been to the Republic of Ireland and am going to Northern Ireland in October, I also know full well that Northern Ireland is divided between Nationalist and Unionist communities and peace only came through powersharing between them not through one side disrespecting the wishes of the other
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
I have no idea why remainers seem to think Ireland is their trump card.
"You can't leave the EU, the Irish won't let us" is bound to return a stonking majority for No Deal if that is the reason why an election is called.
People voted to leave because we are sick of being told by foreign countries what we can and cannot do with our own borders.
If our border checks with Ireland consist of two huts and an arthritic eighty year old night watchman with myopia, job done.
That runs two ways. The Irish see the backstop as necessary because they have a far greater history than us of being told what to do by an overseas power. They are not going to abandon it so we have a choice to make. If you think No Deal is no problem then good luck to you.
I'm struggling to understand what the Irish are going to do to us if we stick up a border that consists of a myopic octagenarian and a very long bit of string. Invade? Put up a border of their own?
Call. Their. Bluff.
The issue is not, and has never been, the Irish.
The issue is that by deliberately choosing not to impose tariffs (or other checks) on one country with whom we do not have an FTA, we would be in breach of our treaty obligations under the GATT and WTO treaties of 1947 and 1986.
Now, there are some people who (correctly) say the WTO moves slowly (it does). The process would be that a country like Brazil brings a case to the WTO saying that Britain treated its beef exports differently to Ireland's. Brazil would win said case (in about 18 months time) and the WTO would fine us. (Which we could choose not to pay, should we so desire.) Ultimately, the WTO, like the EU, has no real way to enforce its decisions.
It is, however, worth remembering that mid-sized countries like... errrr... us benefit most from a rules based trading system like the WTO. If we flagrantly ignore the WTO and chose not to pay its fines, we would be hastening its demise. This does not end well for us.
If we flagrantly violate the WTO on an issue of national importance to safeguard peace, in the same way we flagrantly violate the ECHR in refusing to enforce Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2) would that be unprecedented for the WTO?
Or is there already precedent for medium and large countries to on occasion violate WTO instructions?
And this is without taking into account that the WTO might agree to our method of enforcing the Irish border, especially given the GFA is a Treaty we are committed to under international law.
I remain relatively sanguine about the Irish situation. Largely because neither side wants to go back to where we were. And because the RoI is not the priest ridden economic backwater of the 60's. And neither is Northern Ireland the quasi apartheid State it was. Least I hope so.
I get the impression that the ultras on both sides are a smaller part of the general population but are more hardened in their attitudes, and have been energised by the culture wars. I'm still not entirely clear why their proxies in the West of Scotland have respectively adopted Trumpism & the Israel flag and on the other side the Palestine flag.
In any case I'm pretty sure that there's a significant number of them who'd welcome a bit of armed struggle.
I'm struggling to understand what the Irish are going to do to us if we stick up a border that consists of a myopic octagenarian and a very long bit of string. Invade? Put up a border of their own?
Call. Their. Bluff.
Put up a border of their own, in due course as our regulations start to deviate from the EU. If they don't, they'll find that their own free movement of goods to the continent is endangered (because goods considered dodgy by the Eu - hormone beef etc. - will come in via the UK).
Yes I can see how that would be a problem - for them.
Perhaps they should negotiate a solution we can agree to so that doesn't happen then?
EU membership doesn't do the second. The border already exists.
But essentially unpoliced because of the single market and the common travel area.
No, essentially unpoliced because we choose not to police it. We can continue to make that choice even out of the market if we so choose, just as some member of the single market can and do police their border. Just as the border was policed many years after the Single Market came into existance.
Yes, Boris is by far the better salesman. For this reason I think they plan to give the WA and backstop another go. No one understands the backstop anyway, so it should be a piece of cake for someone with Boris’s gift of the gab. The EU will just keep mum and smile serenely.
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist. .
No, that's the Workers' Party (former Official Sinn Fein).
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Russians...
Vlad of course might take the view that geopolitically he’d be better off courting us than screwing us around. Second fronts and all that.
Now we should tell him to bugger off of course. Unless the EU were overly unfriendly.....
We have interests not friends.
If the troubles return to NI, the UK will have to use resources in NI rather than confronting Russian malevolence. £20 million from Russia to the IRA for instance could mean the UK commits billions to containing terrorism instead of spending money on something that threatens Russian aggression. Putin wants to cause Nato problems or keep NATO destracted whilst the Russians assimilate neighbouring countries by using unconventional strategies.
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
Boostering Johnson's "success" in getting the EU to drop the Backstop is presumably part of Johnson's spin operation. Which means he is setting himself up to fail. I don't think the triumphalism is meant to be a decoy. He wants people to think he's a great statesman
The Gordian knot cutting solution of course is a border poll with a pro unity outcome. And it is obligatory under GFA to hold one if it looks likely that would be the result. So there's a context in which opinion polls actually matter.
Given most Westminster seats in Northern Ireland are held by the DUP even after Brexit and the largest number of MLA seats pre suspension were also held by the DUP there is no requirement for a border poll, especially as Boris will ensure an open border in Ireland regardless of the Brexit outcome anyway
The GFA says this
The Northern Ireland Act 1998, a statute of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, provides that Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people of Northern Ireland vote to form part of a united Ireland. It specifies that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland "shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Such referenda may not take place within seven years of each other.[
What has that got to do with Westminster seats? "those voting" = the electorate, not MPs. Also, border poll has a different meaning than the one you attribute to it.
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Russians...
Vlad of course might take the view that geopolitically he’d be better off courting us than screwing us around. Second fronts and all that.
Now we should tell him to bugger off of course. Unless the EU were overly unfriendly.....
We have interests not friends.
If the troubles return to NI, the UK will have to use resources in NI rather than confronting Russian malevolence. £20 million from Russia to the IRA for instance could mean the UK commits billions to containing terrorism instead of spending money on something that threatens Russian aggression. Putin wants to cause Nato problems or keep NATO destracted whilst the Russians assimilate neighbouring countries by using unconventional strategies.
Quite. So why wouldn’t he cultivate us as a thorn in the EU’s side?
Potentially yes, I certainly think there would be a case for keeping the Scottish borders in the UK if they voted No and Scotland as a whole voted Yes to independence
On that basis I assume you are fine with Scotland and London remaining in the EU? Or are you just talking out of your hole?
There is no clear evidence yet Scotland prefers to Leave the UK to join the EU than stay in the UK and Leave the EU.
London does not have an independence party unlike Scotland
Does Dumfries and Galloway have an independence from Scotland party? Look at what partition has done to Ireland, then think twice before casually discussing partitioning my homeland from whatever grim corner of the home counties you are holed up in. English people really need to get some self awareness before taking this kind of crap about carving up other people’s countries.
It likely would do very soon if it voted strongly No to leaving the UK and Scotland voted Yes.
As far as I am concerned my country is the UK and you want to carve up my country so don't complain if I even discuss carving up what you think of as yours
I am a European so you have already carved that up. The UK isn't a country, it is a state. I’m not a Scot Nat but taking Scotland out of the EU against its will is an unforgivable insult to Scotland and has sadly convinced me that the UK is an abusive relationship as far as Scotland is concerned. Hearing you discuss giving off bits of Scotland only amplifies that message.
If you only supported the Union as long as Scotland was in the EU, you were never really much of a Unionist anyway
He never said he was a Unionist, so how much of a one he might be is an irrelevance. I note that most members of the party for whom you slavishly pimp don't seem particularly Unionist either.
The Gordian knot cutting solution of course is a border poll with a pro unity outcome. And it is obligatory under GFA to hold one if it looks likely that would be the result. So there's a context in which opinion polls actually matter.
Given most Westminster seats in Northern Ireland are held by the DUP even after Brexit and the largest number of MLA seats pre suspension were also held by the DUP there is no requirement for a border poll, especially as Boris will ensure an open border in Ireland regardless of the Brexit outcome anyway
The GFA says this
The Northern Ireland Act 1998, a statute of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, provides that Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people of Northern Ireland vote to form part of a united Ireland. It specifies that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland "shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Such referenda may not take place within seven years of each other.[
What has that got to do with Westminster seats? "those voting" = the electorate, not MPs. Also, border poll has a different meaning than the one you attribute to it.
Secretary of State just has to say they don't believe it is likely a majority would express such a wish. It doesn't set a test as to how to define likely.
I think a majority backing a border poll at a Holyrood or Westminster election [as occured prior to SindyRef] would be a good way of measuring it.
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
Boostering Johnson's "success" in getting the EU to drop the Backstop is presumably part of Johnson's spin operation. Which means he is setting himself up to fail. I don't think the triumphalism is meant to be a decoy. He wants people to think he's a great statesman
You haven't explained your assumption that he will fail.
He is setting up his succeeding as a fait accompli.
That can then resolve itself in one of two ways. Either he succeeds - mission accomplished. Or he fails - unreasonable Europeans blocked his reasonable demands, now we have no choice but to leave without a deal.
It's worth repeating the key facts. Ireland can't afford a hard border, whether conceded through a lack of a backstop or through No Deal. Northern Ireland can afford it ten times less. Ireland won't willingly align itself with the UK outside of the Single Market, nor will the other Member states require it to. Which means the backstop will be the number one requirement for any deal of any kind with any of the countries that we share a continent with.
It's time to face those facts.
Please explain why, once we have left, the backstop makes logical sense
For the reasons I set out in my comment of 8.33. Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, can't afford a hard border, which will happen absent some version of the backstop being agreed. Ireland will refuse to leave the Single Market and the EU won't want to force it to do so. Ireland and the EU will insist on a backstop before agreeing a deal about pretty much anything.
Additionally the US won't agree a trade deal, which seems to be some kind of fetish amongst Brexiteers.
In short, Brexit is too much hard work without a backstop.
You are wrong.
If the UK can survive fine without a backstop then a deal becomes optional, nice to have, not necessary. The barrier on the backstop is that it is undemocratic and against principles of freedom, that trumps something that is nice to have. I can live without a US trade deal, we already don't have one.
OTOH as you said Ireland can't afford a hard border. The way to make a hard border go away is to agree a deal. A deal resolves the border issue, resolves the WTO MFN issue [doesn't apply if there's a deal] and resolves the integrity of the Single Market issue. If the barrier to all that is the backstop, then the backstop must go.
Only reason to cling to the backstop given is that the UK will fold. If the UK doesn't the backstop is worse than pointless, it is self-defeating.
Only 11% of Irelands exports go the UK, so while they would certainly lose out in the event of a No Deal Brexit, it wouldn't be catastrophic for them.
I remain relatively sanguine about the Irish situation. Largely because neither side wants to go back to where we were. And because the RoI is not the priest ridden economic backwater of the 60's. And neither is Northern Ireland the quasi apartheid State it was. Least I hope so.
I get the impression that the ultras on both sides are a smaller part of the general population but are more hardened in their attitudes, and have been energised by the culture wars. I'm still not entirely clear why their proxies in the West of Scotland have respectively adopted Trumpism & the Israel flag and on the other side the Palestine flag.
In any case I'm pretty sure that there's a significant number of them who'd welcome a bit of armed struggle.
A guerrilla is a fish who swims in the sea of the people.
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
Dear God, you don’t get it do you?
I dont believe the stuff in the media. You probably dont realise you have been manipulated by the media for years. If you want to get something from A to B quickly, it only stands to reason if you put barriers imbetween A to B it slows movement. Well that is what Brexit does, it puts barriers up unilaterally whilst our European competitors do not have these barriers. We as a country lose an advantage we once had.
The Gordian knot cutting solution of course is a border poll with a pro unity outcome. And it is obligatory under GFA to hold one if it looks likely that would be the result. So there's a context in which opinion polls actually matter.
Given most Westminster seats in Northern Ireland are held by the DUP even after Brexit and the largest number of MLA seats pre suspension were also held by the DUP there is no requirement for a border poll, especially as Boris will ensure an open border in Ireland regardless of the Brexit outcome anyway
The GFA says this
The Northern Ireland Act 1998, a statute of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, provides that Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people of Northern Ireland vote to form part of a united Ireland. It specifies that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland "shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Such referenda may not take place within seven years of each other.[
What has that got to do with Westminster seats? "those voting" = the electorate, not MPs. Also, border poll has a different meaning than the one you attribute to it.
As if Unionist parties win a majority of seats in Northern Ireland the Secretary of State, certainly under Boris will correctly interpret that as showing no majority in Northern Ireland for it to Leave the UK and therefore no need for a border poll and that would remain the case unless and until Nationalist parties won a majority of seats in Northern Ireland
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Russians...
Vlad of course might take the view that geopolitically he’d be better off courting us than screwing us around. Second fronts and all that.
Now we should tell him to bugger off of course. Unless the EU were overly unfriendly.....
We have interests not friends.
If the troubles return to NI, the UK will have to use resources in NI rather than confronting Russian malevolence. £20 million from Russia to the IRA for instance could mean the UK commits billions to containing terrorism instead of spending money on something that threatens Russian aggression. Putin wants to cause Nato problems or keep NATO destracted whilst the Russians assimilate neighbouring countries by using unconventional strategies.
Quite. So why wouldn’t he cultivate us as a thorn in the EU’s side?
Vlad, already did given the inances of vote Leave...
Potentially yes, I certainly think there would be a case for keeping the Scottish borders in the UK if they voted No and Scotland as a whole voted Yes to independence
On that basis I assume you are fine with Scotland and London remaining in the EU? Or are you just talking out of your hole?
There is no clear evidence yet Scotland prefers to Leave the UK to join the EU than stay in the UK and Leave the EU.
London does not have an independence party unlike Scotland
Does Dumfries and Galloway have an independence from Scotland party? Look at what partition has done to Ireland, then think twice before casually discussing partitioning my homeland from whatever grim corner of the home counties you are holed up in. English people really need to get some self awareness before taking this kind of crap about carving up other people’s countries.
It likely would do very soon if it voted strongly No to leaving the UK and Scotland voted Yes.
As far as I am concerned my country is the UK and you want to carve up my country so don't complain if I even discuss carving up what you think of as yours
I am a European so you have already carved that up. The UK isn't a country, it is a state. I’m not a Scot Nat but taking Scotland out of the EU against its will is an unforgivable insult to Scotland and has sadly convinced me that the UK is an abusive relationship as far as Scotland is concerned. Hearing you discuss giving off bits of Scotland only amplifies that message.
If you only supported the Union as long as Scotland was in the EU, you were never really much of a Unionist anyway
I never gave a shit about these constitutional questions until the English nationalists upset the apple cart by voting for Brexit. I was quite happy being Scottish, British and European, but if I can't be British and European then I will be Scottish and European. It's so simple even you should be able to understand.
If the UK can survive fine without a backstop then a deal becomes optional, nice to have, not necessary. The barrier on the backstop is that it is undemocratic and against principles of freedom, that trumps something that is nice to have. I can live without a US trade deal, we already don't have one.
OTOH as you said Ireland can't afford a hard border. The way to make a hard border go away is to agree a deal. A deal resolves the border issue, resolves the WTO MFN issue [doesn't apply if there's a deal] and resolves the integrity of the Single Market issue. If the barrier to all that is the backstop, then the backstop must go.
Only reason to cling to the backstop given is that the UK will fold. If the UK doesn't the backstop is worse than pointless, it is self-defeating.
Only 11% of Irelands exports go the UK, so while they would certainly lose out in the event of a No Deal Brexit, it wouldn't be catastrophic for them.
I don't think it will be "catastrophic" for anyone.
However the balance of interests shift in different scenarios. At present the Irish are assuming we're desperate for a deal, if we show we're not that changes things.
If the UK is not desperate for a deal, we are not going to sign up to the backstop, that would be too high a price to pay.
So the question becomes do the Irish prefer a deal without a backstop than everlasting no deal without one? A relatively easy question to answer surely? They will have nothing to gain by persisting to insistence upon it, while we would have everything to lose by agreeing to it.
Plus the longer no deal lasts, the more insecure Ireland is within the Single Market because of our open border with them. The French and others won't be happy with Ireland having an open border with us without a deal as much as they're backing them now. A deal secures that better than no deal does.
Has Boris submitted his homework on solving the Irish border problem yet? Seriously though, these diplomat jollies are all very well, but quickly get forgotten when the bunting has been cleared away. The thirty days will fly by. I’m worried that we’ll soon be back to the looming No Deal horror show with the old line of ‘if we survived the blitz...’ back in play.
No this won’t be easily forgotten. Boris has been a car crash on these diplomatic missions.
Boris has looked awkward and gauche, not statesmanlike at all. Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears. Meanwhile the Borisgraph and other media go loopy about what a triumph this business has been, giving it a real go, proper negotiation already achieving real rewards. The Express even told readers Merkel laughed along at the belittlement of her - yes, they really do have to spin that far from reality to find a sweet spot! However Whilst The lizard from the mail was on Sky last night spinning the triumphalist line, seemed to me, though spinning the spin, not telling it with his eyes or his demeanour…
The Borisgraph and Express likely happy to die like spartans over Brexit, but I wonder if The Mail and The Sun will regret their backing of No Deal when it really starts to bite their readers.
The brexit supporting media is certainly throwing the kitchen sink behind backing Johnson but I wonder if people reading the material just ignore it all? It does not take me in as Boris has achieved zero so far. Surely after 3 years of Brexiteer bull shit readers are going to see through the false propoganda presented on a daily basis...
Boostering Johnson's "success" in getting the EU to drop the Backstop is presumably part of Johnson's spin operation. Which means he is setting himself up to fail. I don't think the triumphalism is meant to be a decoy. He wants people to think he's a great statesman
I think Johnson is getting a media honeymoon most PMs get. An editor once remarked to me that they judge a PM who has just attained office on what they do as PM rather than their behaviour before becoming PM. I dont support Boris and I see the media narrotive for what it is a load of propoganda aimed at leading readers toward the newspapers agenda...
Potentially yes, I certainly think there would be a case for keeping the Scottish borders in the UK if they voted No and Scotland as a whole voted Yes to independence
On that basis I assume you are fine with Scotland and London remaining in the EU? Or are you just talking out of your hole?
There is no clear evidence yet Scotland prefers to Leave the UK to join the EU than stay in the UK and Leave the EU.
London does not have an independence party unlike Scotland
Does Dumfries and Galloway have an independence from Scotland party? Look at what partition has done to Ireland, then think twice before casually discussing partitioning my homeland from whatever grim corner of the home counties you are holed up in. English people really need to get some self awareness before taking this kind of crap about carving up other people’s countries.
It likely would do very soon if it voted strongly No to leaving the UK and Scotland voted Yes.
As far as I am concerned my country is the UK and you want to carve up my country so don't complain if I even discuss carving up what you think of as yours
I am a European so you have already carved that up. The UK isn't a country, it is a state. I’m not a Scot Nat but taking Scotland out of the EU against its will is an unforgivable insult to Scotland and has sadly convinced me that the UK is an abusive relationship as far as Scotland is concerned. Hearing you discuss giving off bits of Scotland only amplifies that message.
If you only supported the Union as long as Scotland was in the EU, you were never really much of a Unionist anyway
I never gave a shit about these constitutional questions until the English nationalists upset the apple cart by voting for Brexit. I was quite happy being Scottish, British and European, but if I can't be British and European then I will be Scottish and European. It's so simple even you should be able to understand.
So it was OK for Scottish nationalists to upset the apple cart but unreasonable for English [and Welsh] ones to do so?
It is worth remembering that the IRA was funded - in large part - by the Soviet Union. (Thus making them one of the few terrorist groups to be backed by them and the Americans.) Hence why they were (and maybe still are) notionally Communist.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Russians...
Vlad of course might take the view that geopolitically he’d be better off courting us than screwing us around. Second fronts and all that.
Now we should tell him to bugger off of course. Unless the EU were overly unfriendly.....
We have interests not friends.
If the troubles return to NI, the UK will have to use resources in NI rather than confronting Russian malevolence. £20 million from Russia to the IRA for instance could mean the UK commits billions to containing terrorism instead of spending money on something that threatens Russian aggression. Putin wants to cause Nato problems or keep NATO destracted whilst the Russians assimilate neighbouring countries by using unconventional strategies.
Quite. So why wouldn’t he cultivate us as a thorn in the EU’s side?
It is unusual for Leavers to so freely admit that they are Putins useful idiots. I salute your honesty.
If we flagrantly violate the WTO on an issue of national importance to safeguard peace, in the same way we flagrantly violate the ECHR in refusing to enforce Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2) would that be unprecedented for the WTO?
Or is there already precedent for medium and large countries to on occasion violate WTO instructions?
And this is without taking into account that the WTO might agree to our method of enforcing the Irish border, especially given the GFA is a Treaty we are committed to under international law.
We all know what the technical solution to the Northern Ireland border is. Ireland knows it. The EU knows it. We know it. The EU has even published a paper on it.
The solution is spot customs checks away from the border. A simple way of allowing traders to preregister shipments. A trusted trader programme. Cameras at the border to check that trucks who cross the border had actually registered their cargos. This would be perfectly in accordance with our WTO obligations.
This is not rocket science. And there is broad agreement that this what we want to achieve. But with the best will in the world, the system is not going to be ready on 31 December 2020.
This leads us to one of three options:
1. At the end of the transition period we could just pretend the border doesn't exist on the (probably correct) assumption that by the time the WTO ruled, we would have got it implemented.
But this is not a panacea. From an adminstrative perspective (or for filling out Rules of Origin documentation for exports to the US), it would pose difficulties for companies. So, would VAT be chargable on goods sold cross border (as happens with the EU, but not RoW)? Would tariffs be notionally payable and would people be obliged to pay them, but it worked solely on a self reporting basis?
Nevertheless, this idea is not without merit.
2. We could extend the transition period by 12 or 18 months. This would have the merit of creating a deadline for implementation. But it would leave us bound in many ways to the EU for the period.
If we flagrantly violate the WTO on an issue of national importance to safeguard peace, in the same way we flagrantly violate the ECHR in refusing to enforce Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2) would that be unprecedented for the WTO?
Or is there already precedent for medium and large countries to on occasion violate WTO instructions?
And this is without taking into account that the WTO might agree to our method of enforcing the Irish border, especially given the GFA is a Treaty we are committed to under international law.
We all know what the technical solution to the Northern Ireland border is. Ireland knows it. The EU knows it. We know it. The EU has even published a paper on it.
The solution is spot customs checks away from the border. A simple way of allowing traders to preregister shipments. A trusted trader programme. Cameras at the border to check that trucks who cross the border had actually registered their cargos. This would be perfectly in accordance with our WTO obligations.
This is not rocket science. And there is broad agreement that this what we want to achieve. But with the best will in the world, the system is not going to be ready on 31 December 2020.
This leads us to one of three options:
1. At the end of the transition period we could just pretend the border doesn't exist on the (probably correct) assumption that by the time the WTO ruled, we would have got it implemented.
But this is not a panacea. From an adminstrative perspective (or for filling out Rules of Origin documentation for exports to the US), it would pose difficulties for companies. So, would VAT be chargable on goods sold cross border (as happens with the EU, but not RoW)? Would tariffs be notionally payable and would people be obliged to pay them, but it worked solely on a self reporting basis?
Nevertheless, this idea is not without merit.
2. We could extend the transition period by 12 or 18 months. This would have the merit of creating a deadline for implementation. But it would leave us bound in many ways to the EU for the period.
3. The backstop.
Your preferred option is 1. Mine is 2.
My preferred option is also 2, so long as there is no 3. It is the EU's insistence upon 3 that is the problem.
I don't think that's a particularly shocking number for Brandenburg. The East German Laander tend to give much higher shares to Linke and AfD than the West German ones
Antrim and Down hsve been part of the UK for hundreds of years and ate the counties closest
Being a monarchist member of the LDs makes you a woke Meghan Markle fan nothing more
You're a bit early to say "hundreds". Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for 198 years, less than 2 centuries. If NI decides to leave the UK it must follow as surely as Scotland and Remain parts of England must leave the EU - unless you are a total hypocrite of course.
Nice line by the way. Keep it up and you may develop a sense of humour.
The Act of Union with Ireland was in 1810 and Antrim and Down were part of the British crown before that too.
Nationalists in Remain voting Northern Ireland and Scotland are trying to secede from the Leave voting UK to stay in the EU so of course Unionists in Unionist voting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland could vote to secede from an enlarged Republic of Ireland and an independent Scotland and rejoin the UK if those votes went that way
Your ignorance is astounding. The Act of Union passed in 1800 and came into force on 1 January 1801
Until the first half of the 17th century that area of Ireland led the resistance to the Crown before the Plantation removed its native population - and even them most of the settlers were Scots. It is hardly bound to the UK as fastly as you suggest.
Antrim and Down have not existed as local government units since 1972 anyway.
So as I said Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for over 200 years, being part of the Crown for even longer before that.
Every Westminster seat in Antrim is held by the DUP and every local authority area in Antrim voted Leave in the EU referendum
Have you ever been to NI? It is such a complex situation on the ground that your ill-informed judgements would amount to a massive sellout of people more patrotic than you...
I have been to the Republic of Ireland and am going to Northern Ireland in October, I also know full well that Northern Ireland is divided between Nationalist and Unionist communities and peace only came through powersharing between them not through one side disrespecting the wishes of the other
Enjoy your trip! it is much more mixed than homogenous communities where it is 100% are derived from one side of the political argument to the other. That is why further partition will not work. British citizens would be expelled from the UK against their will. Would you be willing to become an Essex citizen instead of a GB one if the UK disintergrated?
So it was OK for Scottish nationalists to upset the apple cart but unreasonable for English [and Welsh] ones to do so?
Oh boo hoo go cry me a river.
Personally I would not have voted for independence in 2014, although I think it was legitimate to have the referendum. I also think it was legitimate to have the EU referendum two years later (although the standard of debate in the latter was several orders of magnitude worse than in the former). But one of the consequences of the English voting for Brexit, and trying to force the Scots out of the EU against their will, is that many of us who previously supported the Union are rethinking that.
It's sad that so many of the ardent Brexiteers on this site seem unable to think through the consequences of their actions. If you want to have a cry I won't stop you or blame you.
I don't think that's a particularly shocking number for Brandenburg. The East German Laander tend to give much higher shares to Linke and AfD than the West German ones
Yes. The surprise seems to be that the SPD is not totally collapsing as in the rest of Germany, despite being in government.
Until the first half of the 17th century that area of Ireland led the resistance to the Crown before the Plantation removed its native population - and even them most of the settlers were Scots. It is hardly bound to the UK as fastly as you suggest.
Antrim and Down have not existed as local government units since 1972 anyway.
So as I said Antrim and Down have been part of the UK for over 200 years, being part of the Crown for even longer before that.
Every Westminster seat in Antrim is held by the DUP and every local authority area in Antrim voted Leave in the EU referendum
Have you ever been to NI? It is such a complex situation on the ground that your ill-informed judgements would amount to a massive sellout of people more patrotic than you...
I have been to the Republic of Ireland and am going to Northern Ireland in October, I also know full well that Northern Ireland is divided between Nationalist and Unionist communities and peace only came through powersharing between them not through one side disrespecting the wishes of the other
Enjoy your trip! it is much more mixed than homogenous communities where it is 100% are derived from one side of the political argument to the other. That is why further partition will not work. British citizens would be expelled from the UK against their will. Would you be willing to become an Essex citizen instead of a GB one if the UK disintergrated?
Thankyou, though off to Portugal for a wedding tomorrow first.
By like comparison I suppose I could be an Essex citizen within the Leave voting parts of England and Wales joined by a Leave voting Antrim if the UK disintegrated post Brexit with the Remain parts staying in the EU
So it was OK for Scottish nationalists to upset the apple cart but unreasonable for English [and Welsh] ones to do so?
Oh boo hoo go cry me a river.
Personally I would not have voted for independence in 2014, although I think it was legitimate to have the referendum. I also think it was legitimate to have the EU referendum two years later (although the standard of debate in the latter was several orders of magnitude worse than in the former). But one of the consequences of the English voting for Brexit, and trying to force the Scots out of the EU against their will, is that many of us who previously supported the Union are rethinking that.
It's sad that so many of the ardent Brexiteers on this site seem unable to think through the consequences of their actions. If you want to have a cry I won't stop you or blame you.
51% of Scottish Remain voters now back independence according to Curtice but 64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose independence, so while Brexit has probably shifted a majority of Scottish Remainers to Yes the fact that almost 2/3 of Scottish Leavers still back No means the Union is not dead yet.
So it was OK for Scottish nationalists to upset the apple cart but unreasonable for English [and Welsh] ones to do so?
Oh boo hoo go cry me a river.
Personally I would not have voted for independence in 2014, although I think it was legitimate to have the referendum. I also think it was legitimate to have the EU referendum two years later (although the standard of debate in the latter was several orders of magnitude worse than in the former). But one of the consequences of the English voting for Brexit, and trying to force the Scots out of the EU against their will, is that many of us who previously supported the Union are rethinking that.
It's sad that so many of the ardent Brexiteers on this site seem unable to think through the consequences of their actions. If you want to have a cry I won't stop you or blame you.
51% of Scottish Remain voters now back independence according to Curtice but 64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose independence, so while Brexit has probably shifted a majority of Scottish Remainers to Yes the fact that almost 2/3 of Scottish Leavers still back No means the Union is not dead yet.
So it was OK for Scottish nationalists to upset the apple cart but unreasonable for English [and Welsh] ones to do so?
Oh boo hoo go cry me a river.
Personally I would not have voted for independence in 2014, although I think it was legitimate to have the referendum. I also think it was legitimate to have the EU referendum two years later (although the standard of debate in the latter was several orders of magnitude worse than in the former). But one of the consequences of the English voting for Brexit, and trying to force the Scots out of the EU against their will, is that many of us who previously supported the Union are rethinking that.
It's sad that so many of the ardent Brexiteers on this site seem unable to think through the consequences of their actions. If you want to have a cry I won't stop you or blame you.
I don't want a cry. If you bugger off that will be two birds with one stone, great.
Don't see it coming though. Nothings changed my mind that the Scots are too frit to get independent.
It would be a true irony if the currency traders set to make a killing from a no-deal Brexit will have the parliamentary Remainers who cannot get their act together to thank for their bonuses this year.
It would be a true irony if the currency traders set to make a killing from a no-deal Brexit will have the parliamentary Remainers who cannot get their act together to thank for their bonuses this year.
It's all very much as a number of people posted on here a few weeks ago.
The only thing that matters is that Boris declares victory. The details of what is agreed don't matter in the slightest - nobody cares, 99% of the public haven't the faintest idea what the backstop even is. Almost as many won't know anything about the Customs Union, Single Market etc.
The public just wants to hear that Britain has won. That's all that matters.
I have been to the Republic of Ireland and am going to Northern Ireland in October, I also know full well that Northern Ireland is divided between Nationalist and Unionist communities and peace only came through powersharing between them not through one side disrespecting the wishes of the other
Enjoy your trip! it is much more mixed than homogenous communities where it is 100% are derived from one side of the political argument to the other. That is why further partition will not work. British citizens would be expelled from the UK against their will. Would you be willing to become an Essex citizen instead of a GB one if the UK disintergrated?
Diehard Remainers like HYUFD would be the first up against the wall in the People's Republic of Essex
"Goods moving between Ireland and Northern Ireland will face different procedures compared to other UK-EU trade."
"Moving goods between Ireland, Northern Ireland and Great Britain There will be no new requirements or checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
If you move goods from Ireland to Great Britain and the goods go through Northern Ireland, you do not have to pay Customs Duty if the goods move for commercial reasons.
If you move goods through Ireland and Northern Ireland with the main purpose of avoiding Customs Duty, you will have to pay the UK’s tariff, whether the goods are from Ireland or outside Ireland.
The only exceptions will be for goods liable to Excise Duty (alcohol, tobacco and certain oils)."
There was a slightly confused Q&A on the news last night, although it's possible I was sleepy and just missed something.
The PSNI Chief Constable was asked by about the idea of an electronic border. He dismissed that, but his explanation went on to say how many entry points there were and how difficult it would be to set up checkpoints.
But the reasoning behind an electronic border is that checking things physically doesn't happen that much (beyond suspicious activity or tip-offs, which happens already).
Comments
UK leaves SM/CU.
No border in Ireland.
No Deal does the 1st but not the 2nd. It messes that up.
Additionally the US won't agree a trade deal, which seems to be some kind of fetish amongst Brexiteers.
In short, Brexit is too much hard work without a backstop.
The Soviet Union funded terrorist organisations around the world. They funded the Red Brigades in Italy, the Bader Meinhof Gang, and many others.
Now, I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they will find it so easy to find foreign backers if the Troubes flare up again.
Every Westminster seat in Antrim is held by the DUP and every local authority area in Antrim voted Leave in the EU referendum
Least I hope so.
Wonder why it wasn't tried before?
If the UK can survive fine without a backstop then a deal becomes optional, nice to have, not necessary. The barrier on the backstop is that it is undemocratic and against principles of freedom, that trumps something that is nice to have. I can live without a US trade deal, we already don't have one.
OTOH as you said Ireland can't afford a hard border. The way to make a hard border go away is to agree a deal. A deal resolves the border issue, resolves the WTO MFN issue [doesn't apply if there's a deal] and resolves the integrity of the Single Market issue. If the barrier to all that is the backstop, then the backstop must go.
Only reason to cling to the backstop given is that the UK will fold. If the UK doesn't the backstop is worse than pointless, it is self-defeating.
Just like there’s no passport control between NI and GB but you have to have ID to get on a ferry or a plane, and though there’s no passport control as you land ( heaven forfend!) there’s always coincidentally those burley special branch looking blokes just standing around “looking” as you go through.
It’s s border stuck out in the NW Atlantic on an island. It’s not like it’s Strasbourg/Kehl. It’s really not hard if the Irish just got off their high absolutist horse just a bit.
There comes a time though when a Johnson type figure will say, Brexit is worth a backstop, or less likely Brexit is cancelled.
Call. Their. Bluff.
Put up a border of their own, in due course as our regulations start to deviate from the EU. If they don't, they'll find that their own free movement of goods to the continent is endangered (because goods considered dodgy by the Eu - hormone beef etc. - will come in via the UK).
Now we should tell him to bugger off of course. Unless the EU were overly unfriendly.....
We have interests not friends.
The issue is that by deliberately choosing not to impose tariffs (or other checks) on one country with whom we do not have an FTA, we would be in breach of our treaty obligations under the GATT and WTO treaties of 1947 and 1986.
Now, there are some people who (correctly) say the WTO moves slowly (it does). The process would be that a country like Brazil brings a case to the WTO saying that Britain treated its beef exports differently to Ireland's. Brazil would win said case (in about 18 months time) and the WTO would fine us. (Which we could choose not to pay, should we so desire.) Ultimately, the WTO, like the EU, has no real way to enforce its decisions.
It is, however, worth remembering that mid-sized countries like... errrr... us benefit most from a rules based trading system like the WTO. If we flagrantly ignore the WTO and chose not to pay its fines, we would be hastening its demise. This does not end well for us.
Or is there already precedent for medium and large countries to on occasion violate WTO instructions?
And this is without taking into account that the WTO might agree to our method of enforcing the Irish border, especially given the GFA is a Treaty we are committed to under international law.
In any case I'm pretty sure that there's a significant number of them who'd welcome a bit of armed struggle.
Perhaps they should negotiate a solution we can agree to so that doesn't happen then?
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1164589830770180096
The Northern Ireland Act 1998, a statute of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, provides that Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people of Northern Ireland vote to form part of a united Ireland. It specifies that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland "shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Such referenda may not take place within seven years of each other.[
What has that got to do with Westminster seats? "those voting" = the electorate, not MPs. Also, border poll has a different meaning than the one you attribute to it.
I think a majority backing a border poll at a Holyrood or Westminster election [as occured prior to SindyRef] would be a good way of measuring it.
He is setting up his succeeding as a fait accompli.
That can then resolve itself in one of two ways. Either he succeeds - mission accomplished. Or he fails - unreasonable Europeans blocked his reasonable demands, now we have no choice but to leave without a deal.
Either way we leave.
However the balance of interests shift in different scenarios. At present the Irish are assuming we're desperate for a deal, if we show we're not that changes things.
If the UK is not desperate for a deal, we are not going to sign up to the backstop, that would be too high a price to pay.
So the question becomes do the Irish prefer a deal without a backstop than everlasting no deal without one? A relatively easy question to answer surely? They will have nothing to gain by persisting to insistence upon it, while we would have everything to lose by agreeing to it.
Plus the longer no deal lasts, the more insecure Ireland is within the Single Market because of our open border with them. The French and others won't be happy with Ireland having an open border with us without a deal as much as they're backing them now. A deal secures that better than no deal does.
Oh boo hoo go cry me a river.
The solution is spot customs checks away from the border. A simple way of allowing traders to preregister shipments. A trusted trader programme. Cameras at the border to check that trucks who cross the border had actually registered their cargos. This would be perfectly in accordance with our WTO obligations.
This is not rocket science. And there is broad agreement that this what we want to achieve. But with the best will in the world, the system is not going to be ready on 31 December 2020.
This leads us to one of three options:
1. At the end of the transition period we could just pretend the border doesn't exist on the (probably correct) assumption that by the time the WTO ruled, we would have got it implemented.
But this is not a panacea. From an adminstrative perspective (or for filling out Rules of Origin documentation for exports to the US), it would pose difficulties for companies. So, would VAT be chargable on goods sold cross border (as happens with the EU, but not RoW)? Would tariffs be notionally payable and would people be obliged to pay them, but it worked solely on a self reporting basis?
Nevertheless, this idea is not without merit.
2. We could extend the transition period by 12 or 18 months. This would have the merit of creating a deadline for implementation. But it would leave us bound in many ways to the EU for the period.
3. The backstop.
Your preferred option is 1. Mine is 2.
"Obituary
Robert Fletcher
Influential and multilingual optometrist who taught more than 10,000 students in 40 countries"
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/robert-fletcher-obituary-bk650r7w2
This was an event to celebrate his 90th birthday in 2015.
http://www.colour.org.uk/meetingJune22-15.php
It's sad that so many of the ardent Brexiteers on this site seem unable to think through the consequences of their actions. If you want to have a cry I won't stop you or blame you.
LDem dip probably explained by the fact the previous Lib Dem councilor was only elected in May.
By like comparison I suppose I could be an Essex citizen within the Leave voting parts of England and Wales joined by a Leave voting Antrim if the UK disintegrated post Brexit with the Remain parts staying in the EU
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state
Very good result for the Tories
Don't see it coming though. Nothings changed my mind that the Scots are too frit to get independent.
So all this "smoke & mirrors" in Berlin & Paris is working.....
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1164648911254052873?s=20
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1164639154510204928?s=20
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1164638908862423045?s=20
These ones, not so much:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1164638659007717379?s=20
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1164645206442106883?s=20
https://theconversation.com/no-deal-brexit-how-some-traders-will-be-gearing-up-to-short-the-pound-122162
The only thing that matters is that Boris declares victory. The details of what is agreed don't matter in the slightest - nobody cares, 99% of the public haven't the faintest idea what the backstop even is. Almost as many won't know anything about the Customs Union, Single Market etc.
The public just wants to hear that Britain has won. That's all that matters.
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1164733301233524736?s=21
"Goods moving between Ireland and Northern Ireland will face different procedures compared to other UK-EU trade."
"Moving goods between Ireland, Northern Ireland and Great Britain
There will be no new requirements or checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
If you move goods from Ireland to Great Britain and the goods go through Northern Ireland, you do not have to pay Customs Duty if the goods move for commercial reasons.
If you move goods through Ireland and Northern Ireland with the main purpose of avoiding Customs Duty, you will have to pay the UK’s tariff, whether the goods are from Ireland or outside Ireland.
The only exceptions will be for goods liable to Excise Duty (alcohol, tobacco and certain oils)."
There was a slightly confused Q&A on the news last night, although it's possible I was sleepy and just missed something.
The PSNI Chief Constable was asked by about the idea of an electronic border. He dismissed that, but his explanation went on to say how many entry points there were and how difficult it would be to set up checkpoints.
But the reasoning behind an electronic border is that checking things physically doesn't happen that much (beyond suspicious activity or tip-offs, which happens already).