How are those HS2 costs looking now, Lord Adonis? The total proect cost then is looking like the latest potential overspend.
(And I am not anti-HS2. But I am anti costings for large projects that invariably bear no recognition to the stated costs on day one. We always see it. We are supposed to just accept that the people who did the initial costings were just muppets. I come from an industry where we build small cities in the harshest weather conditions in the world, expected to withstand the 100-year wave and with enough onboard generating capacity to power Edinburgh (or push a column of oil hundreds of miles uphill to shore). Even a 10% cost overrun on such projects would risk the joint venture changing operator. Now, if they can get the costsings on such an astonishing piece of construction pretty much spot on from day one, why should the public have to accept costings so wide of the mark? Well, we know why - they would never have allowed politicians to spend £80 billion on a slighlty better train set if the true number was known, is why. It's all part of the dishonesty in our political set up.)
"Lord Adonis said the project would create 10,000 jobs and yield £2 in benefits for every £1 spent.
He said the first 120 miles between London and the West Midlands would cost between £15.8bn and £17.4bn.
The cost per mile beyond Birmingham is then estimated to halve, taking the overall cost of the 335 mile Y-shaped network to about £30bn."
Apples and oranges I think. Building stuff in the middle of nowhere is much less complex than building it where there is stuff already, where people live and can object.
But then, the people involved should know in advance they have oranges, not apples. And stop making cider - and make bloody marmalade. There is no excusing getting the costing of large engineering projects wrong by 100-200%. Other than X can get approval, X x 2 or X x 3 can't. It's just dishonesty on a massive scale.
(On, and when "the middle of nowhere" is the mddle of the North Sea, there's a somewhat greater risk of unknowns than laying a bit of track through Oxfordshire.....)
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
I was similarly confused. I was/am sure I have missed something. The plan was always to replace the backstop when we had something to replace it with. Boris doesn't want the backstop so Merkel says ok come up with something to replace it.
Surely nothing has changed. I feel like I am missing something. Am I?
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
When even Tim Montgomerie understands this, you do have to wonder about the quality of some of the journalists:
Yes, that sounds about right. After all, the whole point of the backstop is that it’s a temporary arrangement until something better can be devised. So if Boris can devise that better something the backstop will be short lived and happy we shall be.
So, spend money improving rail links in the north. It's not rocket science.
They are spending money improving rail links in the north - and are planning to spend more. And why the north? Why not the southwest? Scotland?
One of the funny things about yesterdays announcement was the way so many antis wanted the money spending in *their* area. What amuses me is that they honestly seem to believe that if HS2 is cancelled, that money will go to them instead of other politically less fraught areas. Cancelling HS2 will burn politicians' fingers enough for the to avoid such grand projects in the future. IMO that's bad for the country.
(For an idea on rail investment, Network Rail are spending £10 billion (minimum) on enhancements in CP6 (2019-24).
If HS2 is cancelled the money will go back to the Treasury and be used instead to make additional spending commitments on things like the NHS, social care, and education.
Very little of it will find its way into transport infrastructure.
Put like that and its cancellation seems inevitable. Boris needs to find the money he is splashing around somehow and it wont all be borrowing.
Proponents of the scheme are clearly very convinced it is necessary and I lack the knowledge to counter that but it is so expensive and who doesnt think costs will continue to rise? MarqueeMark has a point and they never are wrong on the underside.
That may not be reason enough to cancel it but politically it makes it a tougher sell.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
As an HS2 sceptic (I've argued here with Josias about it) I tried to use it in the 2015 election, when some homes were already being compulsorily purchased and Anna Soubry was a zealous supporter. I predicted that the ultimate cost would double, as indeed it has.
I found that opinion was fairly evenly divided but almost nobody except councillors and those directly affected actually cared - for most, it was a big project that might happen in the future, shrug. I don't think it will shift many votes either way - threatening to cancel it mildly damages the "we care about the North" rhetoric (but many northerners don't believe that anyway) and mildly helps against the "mad spender" jibe. Northern councillors will be very annoyed, but how many divisions do they have?
Off topic, Marquee Mark's job sounds fascinating. What a diverse bunch we are!
Nick, I worked for Chevron for a while. When they built the Ninian Central Platform for the North Sea, it weighed in at 600,000 tonnes - and was the world's largest man-made movable object. It had a central storage dome that would have comfortably held St Paul's Cathedral.....
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
The shibboleth that the EU/Germany will blink will be the last to be prised from Brexitloons' cold, dead hands. In fact David Davis is gleefully bloviating on that very theme on R4 right now.
As Alasdair Darling was pointing out yesterday, you don't invest in tbe North by making it slightly easier to get to London. You do it by improving transport links in the North. HS2 sounds like a vanity project because that is exactly what it is. There are far better ways to spend £90 billion which will be far more fruitful for the North of England. A view that is not just limited to Tory activists.
HS2 is not a vanity project. There is a specific need to fix a looming capacity issue on the WCML. Since you and I first talked about this (I guess eight or nine years ago), passenger numbers on the railways have continued to increase, albeit with shifting patterns of usage and one year of decrease.
If you want a vanity project - and one that will cost the country a heck of a lot more than £90 billion - just look at your beloved Brexit.
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
When even Tim Montgomerie understands this, you do have to wonder about the quality of some of the journalists:
Yes, that sounds about right. After all, the whole point of the backstop is that it’s a temporary arrangement until something better can be devised. So if Boris can devise that better something the backstop will be short lived and happy we shall be.
Feels like we've been twisting into knots trying to work around this point for a year- if there is such an arrangement possible in short notice I am sceptical the EU cares to hear it .
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
The shibboleth that the EU/Germany will blink will be the last to be prised from Brexiteers' cold, dead hands. In fact David Davis is gleefully bloviating on that very theme on R4 right now.
Now that Boris is PM I believe bloviating is mandatory, as soon will be harrumphing.
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
When even Tim Montgomerie understands this, you do have to wonder about the quality of some of the journalists:
Yes, that sounds about right. After all, the whole point of the backstop is that it’s a temporary arrangement until something better can be devised. So if Boris can devise that better something the backstop will be short lived and happy we shall be.
Feels like we've been twisting into knots trying to work around this point for a year- if there is such an arrangement possible in short notice I am sceptical the EU cares to hear it .
As the EU wasn’t keen on the UK’s proposal for a backstop why do you imagine they wouldn’t want to see a workable alternative?
You know much more than me about this. For me, the priority has to be to create new growth and the type of critical mass that allows London to thrive. The money pouring into London in tech (there was an article yesterday saying that the first 7 months of this year exceeded FDI for the whole of last year) goes there because of that critical mass of skills, opportunities, outstanding academic institutions and, of course, transport infrastructure which create opportunities for growth. That's great but we need to try to replicate it elsewhere.
Whilst transport is *a* key, I'd also argue that education is much more key for that. Cambridge's vibrant and world-beating tech sector grew up not because of proximity to London, but because of a university that created such opportunities by being forward-thinking.
Interestingly (and I don't say this snidely), Oxford hasn't had anywhere near the same success. It's not quite managed to grow the same sort of companies.
Improved transport links will help. But making universities growth incubators in their area might end up being much more rewarding, if chaotic.
Another issue is that London is voracious. It creates jobs, wealth and opportunities, but needs feeding in order to do so (e.g. Crossraial). Stop feeding it, and the whole country is negatively affected. It needs feeding *whilst* the above is done to help the north.
Cambridge always leaned toward science and Oxford toward the arts.
That's interesting, because although as far as I can judge Oxford's science courses are still very good, its humanities and languages courses are now if not mediocre at least underwhelming. Their history degree struggles to match the one on offer at Brookes, for example.
Cambridge, by contrast, is by any measure an outstanding university for History.
Many years ago it was pointed out that most of our professors of philosophy came from Oxford, despite the main advances in the field having been made at Cambridge.
Angels fear to tread here, but I suggest 'advances' in philosophy are pretty rare. I wonder if the last ones were Kant 1781 and Frege 1879. (Neither were at Cambridge!)
How are those HS2 costs looking now, Lord Adonis? The total proect cost then is looking like the latest potential overspend.
(And I am not anti-HS2. But I am anti costings for large projects that invariably bear no recognition to the stated costs on day one. We always see it. We are supposed to just accept that the people who did the initial costings were just muppets. I come from an industry where we build small cities in the harshest weather conditions in the world, expected to withstand the 100-year wave and with enough onboard generating capacity to power Edinburgh (or push a column of oil hundreds of miles uphill to shore). Even a 10% cost overrun on such projects would risk the joint venture changing operator. Now, if they can get the costsings on such an astonishing piece of construction pretty much spot on from day one, why should the public have to accept costings so wide of the mark? Well, we know why - they would never have allowed politicians to spend £80 billion on a slighlty better train set if the true number was known, is why. It's all part of the dishonesty in our political set up.)
"Lord Adonis said the project would create 10,000 jobs and yield £2 in benefits for every £1 spent.
He said the first 120 miles between London and the West Midlands would cost between £15.8bn and £17.4bn.
The cost per mile beyond Birmingham is then estimated to halve, taking the overall cost of the 335 mile Y-shaped network to about £30bn."
Apples and oranges I think. Building stuff in the middle of nowhere is much less complex than building it where there is stuff already, where people live and can object.
But then, the people involved should know in advance they have oranges, not apples. And stop making cider - and make bloody marmalade. There is no excusing getting the costing of large engineering projects wrong by 100-200%. Other than X can get approval, X x 2 or X x 3 can't. It's just dishonesty on a massive scale.
(On, and when "the middle of nowhere" is the mddle of the North Sea, there's a somewhat greater risk of unknowns than laying a bit of track through Oxfordshire.....)
At least you don't have to deal with NIMBYs.
Up to a point. Fish spawning grounds a big factor though.
And when we were exploring in very deep water offshore Tanzania, we had to take account of coelacanth spawning grounds. Given only a handful have ever been seen, and zero is known about their life cycle......
(oh and I love this fact: They have tiny brains. A coelacanth's brain occupies only 1.5 percent of its cranial cavity. The rest of the braincase is filled with fat. Cue cheap gag about politicians......)
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
I was similarly confused. I was/am sure I have missed something. The plan was always to replace the backstop when we had something to replace it with. Boris doesn't want the backstop so Merkel says ok come up with something to replace it.
Surely nothing has changed. I feel like I am missing something. Am I?
No , Bozo just bumping his gums, Merkel politely saying "come up with a plan fatso" and UK media printing absolute mince. We are exactly where we were yesterday other than Bozo being closer to being proved a buffoon.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
I was similarly confused. I was/am sure I have missed something. The plan was always to replace the backstop when we had something to replace it with. Boris doesn't want the backstop so Merkel says ok come up with something to replace it.
Surely nothing has changed. I feel like I am missing something. Am I?
No , Bozo just bumping his gums, Merkel politely saying "come up with a plan fatso" and UK media printing absolute mince. We are exactly where we were yesterday other than Bozo being closer to being proved a buffoon.
I travel on trains a lot and I’m unconvinced by HS2. The chief merit of the idea to me seems to be that Birmingham would effectively become a major new suburb of London, which would boost London’s capacity to drive the economy.
I don’t see any merit to the Manchester limb. Better WiFi would make a bigger difference to business commuters.
The north has bigger problems than just infrastructure. Large parts of it need to urgently rethink what they offer in the modern world. Whizzy trains aren’t going to answer that.
I think the business case is that there is need for additional capacity, which sensibly should be high speed. Whether or not the numbers add up for HS2 the argument makes sense as presumably the capacity won't be added if HS2 is cancelled.
The additional capacity argument presumably weakens the further north you go.
You also need to consider the consequences of not doing it. If that capacity constraint is not dealt with in the next couple of decades, what are the effects? If you address it in ways other than HS2, what are those costs?
My uninformed guess is that HS2 will be built to Birmingham. It won't be continued north of there. People will accept HS2 as necessary within 5 years of operation. This is typical of these kinds of projects.
Trouble is that that is exactly the opposite of what should happen. If they are going to build any of it then they should build the Northern city connection parts first and forget about the London link.
It's an expensive business but the intra-north links would appear more important, building a mega city over, Liverpool / Manchester / Leeds that can counter balance London
With the best will in the world, it will take a couple of decades minimum for that mega city to build to a scale that will counterbalance London. And in the meantime, London needs investment to create the wealth that will be used to create the megacity. But that means London grows ...
I cannot see how strangling London helps anyone. We need the wealth it creates.
But it is voracious.
Best time to do it was 30 years ago, next best time is now.
I accept the problem, but it'll never be cheaper or easier than today it's only going to get harder
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
Yes, after yesterday’s excitement about Angela’s remarks I’ve come to realise that it was just semantics: she was talking about removing the backstop from the objective universe (once an alternative has been found) NOT removing ‘the backstop’ as a condition of the WA. Back to work chaps!
No , Bozo just bumping his gums, Merkel politely saying "come up with a plan fatso" and UK media printing absolute mince. We are exactly where we were yesterday other than Bozo being closer to being proved a buffoon.
Can't believe some of the brain-dead reporting and punditry on this.
Mutti just repeated the same message - the backstop can go if there is a credible alternative - but in a positive way so as not to play along with the "blame the EU for no deal" shtick.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
I was similarly confused. I was/am sure I have missed something. The plan was always to replace the backstop when we had something to replace it with. Boris doesn't want the backstop so Merkel says ok come up with something to replace it.
Surely nothing has changed. I feel like I am missing something. Am I?
Not a thing she just said we won’t renegotiate the WA but if you can come up with something in the next thirty days that makes the backstop unnecessary then we will look at it. All the usual suspects are spinning this a great victory by their great man whereas it wasn’t.
Th problem I have with the HS2 project is the insane cost projections... The TGV line from Paris to Lyons is 409km and the total construction cost, including land purchase was €4.16 billion. plus a later upgrade of €300 million.
Even including phase 2, HS2 is only 530Km (330M) and the land aquisition costs are only around £2 billion, so how can the projected total cost get to £60 billion ?
The Channel Tunnel, a far more difficult piece of engineering, only cost £12 billion (€13.2 billion) in today's money.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Yes, after yesterday’s excitement about Angela’s remarks I’ve come to realise that it was just semantics: she was talking about removing the backstop from the objective universe (once an alternative has been found) NOT removing ‘the backstop’ as a condition of the WA. Back to work chaps!
Well, quite obviously alternative arrangements cannot be in place in 30 days (except perhaps permanent CU plus SM alignment), therefore the Backstop is needed as part of the WA. In the immortal words of Theresa May "Nothing Has Changed" .
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
They are practising their Dunkirk marketing skills in readiness for selling whatever calamity befalls us in October.
As Alasdair Darling was pointing out yesterday, you don't invest in tbe North by making it slightly easier to get to London. You do it by improving transport links in the North. HS2 sounds like a vanity project because that is exactly what it is. There are far better ways to spend £90 billion which will be far more fruitful for the North of England. A view that is not just limited to Tory activists.
HS2 is not a vanity project. There is a specific need to fix a looming capacity issue on the WCML. Since you and I first talked about this (I guess eight or nine years ago), passenger numbers on the railways have continued to increase, albeit with shifting patterns of usage and one year of decrease.
If you want a vanity project - and one that will cost the country a heck of a lot more than £90 billion - just look at your beloved Brexit.
That us a wildly stupid comment.
At least he did not make an obvious typing error in a six word comment.
There is different rationale for the stages of HS2.
Phase 1 to Birmingham is mainly about adding capacity to the WCML. This will allow more standard trains to stop at Watford Junction and Milton Keynes and also increase freight paths. Lord Berkeley as the ex chairman of the Rail Freight Group is interested in this latter point.
There is limited additional capacity for new trains north of London. Commuter trains are mainly 12 cars (240 metres) in length already. HS2 will enable the existing intercity train paths to be taken up by commuter trains helping commuters in the Northern Home Counties. This point has not been highlighted enough.
Phase 2A to Crewe should have been part of Phase 1 as Crewe is better railway junction to end HS2. In addition the end of Phase 1 in the Trent Valley causes a big bottle neck south of Stafford and potentially reduced freight paths in that area.
The Eastern leg of Phase 2B to Leeds has a big problem on routing, particularly given the geology around Sheffield. This leg is mainly about time reductions particularly between Birmingham and Leeds. Remember Phase 2B provides better connections between Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. It will help increase capacity on the MML mainly in Northamptonshire where a lot of housing growth is expected. It does not help Leicester, although a southern connection to the HS2 line at Toton is being proposed to provide a faster service between Leicester and Leeds.
The Western leg of Phase 2B is important to interlink with Northern Powerhouse Rail particularly between Liverpool and Manchester. The main problem with the current proposals is that Manchester HS2 Station is a terminus.
IMO Boris is doing better than May, but is playing a dangerous game with odds against him. If his reality distortion field doesn’t work, we will all suffer. Why does he get to gamble with our future like this?
A quarter of staff members working on the HS2 project are paid over £100 in their yearly salary, startling new data has found.
Salaries and perks over £100,000 were paid to 318 HS2 Ltd officials last year, which is more than double the number of staff members paid the salary in 2015-16.
A Freedom of Information request by The Times found that 112 workers received more than a £150,000 salary, with 15 receiving over £251,000 a year.
Given that they have started preparatory work around Euston, I think they should build to Birmingham. And if Boris is serious about Manchester to Leeds, they might as well do Birmingham to Manchester too. Ideally the station in Manchester would be a through station without the need for trains to reverse. But I would not bother with Birmingham to Leeds via Toton. What they should do is electrify the MML properly, but bi-modes seem to be in vogue these days so I won't hold my breath.
No , Bozo just bumping his gums, Merkel politely saying "come up with a plan fatso" and UK media printing absolute mince. We are exactly where we were yesterday other than Bozo being closer to being proved a buffoon.
Can't believe some of the brain-dead reporting and punditry on this.
Mutti just repeated the same message - the backstop can go if there is a credible alternative - but in a positive way so as not to play along with the "blame the EU for no deal" shtick.
C'mon.
Merkel is the good cop. Today Macron will be the bad cop. It’s all part of the pageant and suits the domestic agendas of both very well. Their voting publics like ridiculous British leaders to be played in different ways.
Th problem I have with the HS2 project is the insane cost projections... The TGV line from Paris to Lyons is 409km and the total construction cost, including land purchase was €4.16 billion. plus a later upgrade of €300 million.
Even including phase 2, HS2 is only 530Km (330M) and the land aquisition costs are only around £2 billion, so how can the projected total cost get to £60 billion ?
The Channel Tunnel, a far more difficult piece of engineering, only cost £12 billion (€13.2 billion) in today's money.
In France - they will happily dig a trench and run the trains through that trench.
In Britain every one of those trenches is a tunnel.
I'm not a total sceptic about the Merkel/Johnson outcome - the EU position does seem to have shifted slightly from "the backstop in the WA cannot change" to a polite enquiry: "what is this alternative of which you speak?" That gives Johnson the option to come up with some sort of smoke and mirrors that does the same as the backstop but can be portrayed as new, if he wants to.
I think it depends whether he thinks there are more votes in heroically pressing ahead with No Deal, do or die, or in heroically finding a magic solution, I shouldn't think he actually cares much about Northern Ireland (frankly most of us don't want a renewed conflict and anything else is details), and although the DUP will see through any smoke and mirrors, he probably has enough credibility in the Tories to minimise a revolt.
It's never the right time to spend lots of money on long term infrastructure. The arguments against are always, on any one day, compelling.
But if you keep on not doing it, day after day, week after week, year after year, then the march of time and the progress of others does its thing and one day you realize you are stuffed.
It's akin to upgrading your personal technology - laptop, phone etc. Exactly the same applies there.
IMO Boris is doing better than May, but is playing a dangerous game with odds against him. If his reality distortion field doesn’t work, we will all suffer. Why does he get to gamble with our future like this?
(Goes back to retirement/lurking)
As far as I can see he is setting himself up to fail twice: 1. On finding a viable alternative to the backstop in 30 days. 2. In delivering a no problem No Deal Brexit. I guess this is the consequence of his very short-term perspective. However, in agreeing an alternative to the back stop is required, Johnson has conceded that there is a logic to the backstop. And in saying No Deal will be fine he’s accepting any issues that do arise will be the result of his government getting the planning wrong. Longer term, both will bite.
O/T: interesting piece by a possibly oppressed woman Iranian academic who doesn't actually want to work on on the subject of oppressed Iranian women, and finding herself steroetyped by sympathisers who can't believe she's interested in anything else:
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
Funny how after a year of "nothing has changed, nothing can change, nothing will change, the WDA is not open for renegotiation" an agreement to look at renegotiating the WDA is viewed as "embarrassing" for Boris.
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I count my blessings every day that we have London, what would I do with all the money if if it was not being siphoned off to London.
Merkel is the good cop. Today Macron will be the bad cop. It’s all part of the pageant and suits the domestic agendas of both very well. Their voting publics like ridiculous British leaders to be played in different ways.
Macron does like to 'front up' to a British PM. I have noticed that.
Any trade deal won't be possible for years anyway, it will take time to negotiate it and it will need to get through the Senate, something easier to achieve if the Irish are on board with the backstop replacement that is now inevitably required as even Merkel can see.
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I count my blessings every day that we have London, what would I do with all the money if if it was not being siphoned off to London.
+1 As an example:-
Transport spending in London is £3,636 per person, compared with £519 in the North-East and £511 in Yorkshire, over the next 15 years.
Now equally I could annoy Malcolm and talk about how little the North gets compared to Scotland per capita but attacking London is very easy.
A quarter of staff members working on the HS2 project are paid over £100 in their yearly salary, startling new data has found.
Salaries and perks over £100,000 were paid to 318 HS2 Ltd officials last year, which is more than double the number of staff members paid the salary in 2015-16.
A Freedom of Information request by The Times found that 112 workers received more than a £150,000 salary, with 15 receiving over £251,000 a year.
Given that they have started preparatory work around Euston, I think they should build to Birmingham. And if Boris is serious about Manchester to Leeds, they might as well do Birmingham to Manchester too. Ideally the station in Manchester would be a through station without the need for trains to reverse. But I would not bother with Birmingham to Leeds via Toton. What they should do is electrify the MML properly, but bi-modes seem to be in vogue these days so I won't hold my breath.
It is the usual London jobs for the boys scam with the rest of the UK paying for it out of their pittances..
I can't work out whether Boris is being dumb af in blurting out a timetable after which everyone will be able to see that the emperor has no clothes or incredibly cunning in stalling wavering Tory MPs and preventing parliament from doing anything until they've gone away for the conferences.
I travel on trains a lot and I’m unconvinced by HS2. The chief merit of the idea to me seems to be that Birmingham would effectively become a major new suburb of London, which would boost London’s capacity to drive the economy.
I don’t see any merit to the Manchester limb. Better WiFi would make a bigger difference to business commuters.
The north has bigger problems than just infrastructure. Large parts of it need to urgently rethink what they offer in the modern world. Whizzy trains aren’t going to answer that.
That’s a difficult question, spending money on shiny things is easy. Questions like, what is the point of all this places beginning with B and H? Mills and other Stakhanovite labouring employment opportunities are gone, won’t be returning and one is left with a low skill population with a low propensity to move in search of employment. Is there a point when stopping decline is no more than a finger in the dam exercise?
I work in a decentralised company where we use video calling as a primary means of communication. Yet that remains uncommon.
Merkel is the good cop. Today Macron will be the bad cop. It’s all part of the pageant and suits the domestic agendas of both very well. Their voting publics like ridiculous British leaders to be played in different ways.
Macron does like to 'front up' to a British PM. I have noticed that.
Macron just likes to posture, anyone who stands up to him will see him back off.
I'm not a total sceptic about the Merkel/Johnson outcome - the EU position does seem to have shifted slightly from "the backstop in the WA cannot change" to a polite enquiry: "what is this alternative of which you speak?" That gives Johnson the option to come up with some sort of smoke and mirrors that does the same as the backstop but can be portrayed as new, if he wants to.
I think it depends whether he thinks there are more votes in heroically pressing ahead with No Deal, do or die, or in heroically finding a magic solution, I shouldn't think he actually cares much about Northern Ireland (frankly most of us don't want a renewed conflict and anything else is details), and although the DUP will see through any smoke and mirrors, he probably has enough credibility in the Tories to minimise a revolt.
You actually think he will come up with a "workable" solution, I think not. He was just given a pat on the head and sent home, have you ever seen Merkel smirking so much , she is usually deadpan but yesterday was grinning like a chesire cat, laughing her socks off at the stupidity of the UK and its Bozo.
Funny how after a year of "nothing has changed, nothing can change, nothing will change, the WDA is not open for renegotiation" an agreement to look at renegotiating the WDA is viewed as "embarrassing" for Boris.
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
Grain of truth.
A deal IS the Johnson plan - but 31 Oct is not feasible.
The drama and the tension will build, culminating in a last gasp agreement to extend art 50 for "fresh talks with no pre-conditions".
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
Funny how after a year of "nothing has changed, nothing can change, nothing will change, the WDA is not open for renegotiation" an agreement to look at renegotiating the WDA is viewed as "embarrassing" for Boris.
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
There are no discussions, Philip. Nothing has been reopened. The UK has always been free to suggest viable alternatives to the backstop. As Merkel observed, the transition period was designed to allow two years for that. Johnson has agreed to do it in 30 days. He has 29 now.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
Funny how after a year of "nothing has changed, nothing can change, nothing will change, the WDA is not open for renegotiation" an agreement to look at renegotiating the WDA is viewed as "embarrassing" for Boris.
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
So everyone’s now open to striking the need for ‘the backstop’ out of the Withdrawal Agreement? Are you sure about that? You’ve still got the chance to row back.
I can't work out whether Boris is being dumb af in blurting out a timetable after which everyone will be able to see that the emperor has no clothes or incredibly cunning in stalling wavering Tory MPs and preventing parliament from doing anything until they've gone away for the conferences.
Or something will be agreed in that time. If the EU wishes to avoid a No Deal Brexit, if Ireland wishes to avoid it - and knowing the backstop won't get through Parliament either way - then replacing the backstop is entirely logical.
There is no logic whatsoever in continuing to demand the backstop now that Parliament is never going to pass it. It is pointless. And this new timetable confirms that, if talks fail then Boris will be able to say he tried his best but we're now in October we are leaving this month - and the EU won't get its backstop anyway. Or if the talks succeed then an open border remains possible and legal.
Logic dictates the talks will succeed. But Remainers can continue to live in denial until they do.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
Funny how after a year of "nothing has changed, nothing can change, nothing will change, the WDA is not open for renegotiation" an agreement to look at renegotiating the WDA is viewed as "embarrassing" for Boris.
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
So everyone’s now open to striking the need for ‘the backstop’ out of the Withdrawal Agreement? Are you sure about that? You’ve still got the chance to row back.
Why would I row back? Its what I've said would happen for the past 12 months if May was replaced.
This is all proceeding exactly as I said would happen a year ago. When this happens in 30 days time you can all bow down before me and say "I'm sorry, you were right all along".
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I count my blessings every day that we have London, what would I do with all the money if if it was not being siphoned off to London.
+1 As an example:-
Transport spending in London is £3,636 per person, compared with £519 in the North-East and £511 in Yorkshire, over the next 15 years.
Now equally I could annoy Malcolm and talk about how little the North gets compared to Scotland per capita but attacking London is very easy.
Eek, all part of the same game, at least the North can influence the spending , no matter who we vote for Scotland cannot change it. However your point is valid and the North should feel as aggrieved as Scotland.
I travel on trains a lot and I’m unconvinced by HS2. The chief merit of the idea to me seems to be that Birmingham would effectively become a major new suburb of London, which would boost London’s capacity to drive the economy.
I don’t see any merit to the Manchester limb. Better WiFi would make a bigger difference to business commuters.
The north has bigger problems than just infrastructure. Large parts of it need to urgently rethink what they offer in the modern world. Whizzy trains aren’t going to answer that.
That’s a difficult question, spending money on shiny things is easy. Questions like, what is the point of all this places beginning with B and H? Mills and other Stakhanovite labouring employment opportunities are gone, won’t be returning and one is left with a low skill population with a low propensity to move in search of employment. Is there a point when stopping decline is no more than a finger in the dam exercise?
I work in a decentralised company where we use video calling as a primary means of communication. Yet that remains uncommon.
It is odd how so many places west of the Pennines begin with a B - Barrow, Birkenhead, Blackpool, Burnley, Blackburn, Bolton, Bury - and how many to the east begin with an H - Hull, Halifax, Huddersfield, Harrogate, Hartlepool.
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I count my blessings every day that we have London, what would I do with all the money if if it was not being siphoned off to London.
+1 As an example:-
Transport spending in London is £3,636 per person, compared with £519 in the North-East and £511 in Yorkshire, over the next 15 years.
Now equally I could annoy Malcolm and talk about how little the North gets compared to Scotland per capita but attacking London is very easy.
Eek, all part of the same game, at least the North can influence the spending , no matter who we vote for Scotland cannot change it. However your point is valid and the North should feel as aggrieved as Scotland.
In order to have money siphoned off to London, one would need to pay more than one received back. The siphoning takes place from, not to, London.
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
All Boris's Christmases come at once if Macron blocks any changes, leading to No Deal.....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies. Macron will sign up at the Council when everything is agreed, no sooner. Just as Macron was going to veto an extension in HYUFD's imagination because that was what was being reported, until he didn't. Macron isn't the key player here, Merkel and Varadkar are.
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
I have to say I simply don’t understand how one railway line can cost £50 billion or whatever.
Nor do I understand why the papers today are presenting Boris’s visit yesterday as some great victory. All Merkel did was to say “Come up with an alternative that works.” If Boris had one he’d surely have told us. He doesn’t. He won’t. So on to no deal we go. Have I missed anything?
The Brexit press are desperate to put a positive spin on anything Brexit-related right now, hence the reaction to Merkel. I also think the Johnson/Cummings plan is to come up with some sort of half baked solution that might work in about 10 years from now and then blame the EU for rejecting it.
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
That is to totally misunderstand the capaciy issues. This is not just about a fast service but provding the much needed extra capacity on the line for local, stopping and other serivces.
It comes to something when the French President is more concerned about peace in Northern Ireland than the British Prime Minister.
If you believe that then given the backstop will cause no deal Merkels desire to get a replacement within 30 days is surely the right one. Only that can get through Parliament and maintain peace.
Boris is winning.
Winning what? Merkel played a credulous Johnson while doing the crossword and feeding the cat. It was all a bit easy for her and embarrassing for him. Though not as embarrassing as the subsequent exultant claims of victory coming from certain Brexit-backing quarters.
Funny how after a year of "nothing has changed, nothing can change, nothing will change, the WDA is not open for renegotiation" an agreement to look at renegotiating the WDA is viewed as "embarrassing" for Boris.
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
So everyone’s now open to striking the need for ‘the backstop’ out of the Withdrawal Agreement? Are you sure about that? You’ve still got the chance to row back.
Why would I row back? Its what I've said would happen for the past 12 months if May was replaced.
This is all proceeding exactly as I said would happen a year ago. When this happens in 30 days time you can all bow down before me and say "I'm sorry, you were right all along".
So the backstop clause of the WA will be struck out before we leave on 31 October? That’s your prediction?
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I count my blessings every day that we have London, what would I do with all the money if if it was not being siphoned off to London.
+1 As an example:-
Transport spending in London is £3,636 per person, compared with £519 in the North-East and £511 in Yorkshire, over the next 15 years.
Now equally I could annoy Malcolm and talk about how little the North gets compared to Scotland per capita but attacking London is very easy.
Eek, all part of the same game, at least the North can influence the spending , no matter who we vote for Scotland cannot change it. However your point is valid and the North should feel as aggrieved as Scotland.
In order to have money siphoned off to London, one would need to pay more than one received back. The siphoning takes place from, not to, London.
Only in the faked up numbers put out by London. If they can say HS2 and Crossrail and hundreds of such like London projects we pay for are beneficial for us , faking the numbers is very simple.
All Boris's Christmases come at once if Macron blocks any changes, leading to No Deal.....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies. Macron will sign up at the Council when everything is agreed, no sooner. Just as Macron was going to veto an extension in HYUFD's imagination because that was what was being reported, until he didn't. Macron isn't the key player here, Merkel and Varadkar are.
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
The Irish press is becoming increasingly worried about No Deal and their governments refusal to say what they are going to do about it.
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
That is to totally misunderstand the capaciy issues. This is not just about a fast service but provding the much needed extra capacity on the line for local, stopping and other serivces.
That will help make it High speed having lots of slow local trains chugging up and down it. Bit like buying a Ferrari to go shopping at Tesco.
In the 1960s the UK, under the aegis of Richard Beeching, drastically disinvested from Rail, and although there had been clear over capacity, the surviving network still had the equivalent of cobbled streets in signalling, junctions and of course the lack of electrification. Despite selective investment since then the UK is still woefully behind in electrification and pitiful in high speed line construction compared to any of our major European neighbours,
The problem now is that the UK, since the 1980s, has also failed to upgrade its motorway network. For example, In the north of Scotland we have Victorian rail signalling and slow and twisty single track roads. The Aberdeen "by pass" only opened 6 months ago after a 60 year wait, and the A90 need serious safety upgrades, so it still takes over three hours to cover the c.130 miles to Edinburgh.
Apart from LHR Terminals (but not runways) and the Swanwick ATC centre aside, neither has there been major investment in our air infrastructure. So dingy airports: Aberdeen and Manchester are especially horrible, and make-do capacity upgrades on M42, M25 and now M4.
The contrast to the integrated and much lower cost transport systems in France and indeed Germany, Italy, Spain and increasingly now Poland is now quite painful.
Unless the UK gets a grip of its infrastructure then the fundamentals of the UK economy will grow steadily weaker and to be honest the increasing squalor of our public spaces should be a matter of great concern to all of us.
So, OK, here is the inevitable Brexit comment: Brexit is not the root of the problem, it is just another symptom of a system that is breaking down across the board. We are ruled by public school journalist bullshitters, not engineers. These people do not understand anything about administration, they only "get" PR and presentation. This is why they have been so successful at lying to us.
However, as the character Legasov says in Chernobyl "Every lie lie we tell, incurs a debt to the truth, sooner or late that debt has to be paid". The fact is that whatever the "optic", the years of under-investment, cutting corners and kicking problems down the line is finally beginning to catch up with the UK. The narrow and self serving elite has slowly stripped legitimacy from the government system and now, one by one the chickens are coming home to roost. Its not just infrastructure. Our schools, pensions, social care, health care, local government and indeed our very survival as a *United* Kingdom all now face deep and intractable crises.
Brexit, in the hands of the patently unfit cabinet currently holding office, will of course be a disaster- years and years of Suez style humiliation, but it will not be the only disaster.
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
That depends on what the business is.
Business which involves lots of international travel will benefit from a good airport while business which involves lots of material movement will benefit from good road links.
Both will slowly gravitate to areas which provide the transport links which most suit them.
So the backstop clause of the WA will be struck out before we leave on 31 October? That’s your prediction?
It will have legally bind changes before we leave yes. Maybe by 31 October maybe after a technical extension if we are close. I've already agreed multiple bets on this site to that effect most recently with Topping yesterday.
That is to totally misunderstand the capaciy issues. This is not just about a fast service but provding the much needed extra capacity on the line for local, stopping and other serivces.
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
That is to totally misunderstand the capaciy issues. This is not just about a fast service but provding the much needed extra capacity on the line for local, stopping and other serivces.
I haven't mentioned speed in my reply ? My main question is whats the 7 billion thus far gone on. I know where some of it has gone but I can't say it out loud on a public forum ;p
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
That is to totally misunderstand the capaciy issues. This is not just about a fast service but provding the much needed extra capacity on the line for local, stopping and other serivces.
That will help make it High speed having lots of slow local trains chugging up and down it. Bit like buying a Ferrari to go shopping at Tesco.
The High Speed Trains will be on the High Speed Line
The Local/Commuting Trains will be on the current line.
It will have legally bind changes before we leave yes. Maybe by 31 October maybe after a technical extension if we are close. I've already agreed multiple bets on this site to that effect most recently with Topping yesterday.
You know much more than me about this. For me, the priority has to be to create new growth and the type of critical mass that allows London to thrive. The money pouring into London in tech (there was an article yesterday saying that the first 7 months of this year exceeded FDI for the whole of last year) goes there because of that critical mass of skills, opportunities, outstanding academic institutions and, of course, transport infrastructure which create opportunities for growth. That's great but we need to try to replicate it elsewhere.
Whilst transport is *a* key, I'd also argue that education is much more key for that. Cambridge's vibrant and world-beating tech sector grew up not because of proximity to London, but because of a university that created such opportunities by being forward-thinking.
Interestingly (and I don't say this snidely), Oxford hasn't had anywhere near the same success. It's not quite managed to grow the same sort of companies.
Improved transport links will help. But making universities growth incubators in their area might end up being much more rewarding, if chaotic.
Another issue is that London is voracious. It creates jobs, wealth and opportunities, but needs feeding in order to do so (e.g. Crossraial). Stop feeding it, and the whole country is negatively affected. It needs feeding *whilst* the above is done to help the north.
Cambridge always leaned toward science and Oxford toward the arts.
That's interesting, because although as far as I can judge Oxford's science courses are still very good, its humanities and languages courses are now if not mediocre at least underwhelming. Their history degree struggles to match the one on offer at Brookes, for example.
Cambridge, by contrast, is by any measure an outstanding university for History.
Many years ago it was pointed out that most of our professors of philosophy came from Oxford, despite the main advances in the field having been made at Cambridge.
Angels fear to tread here, but I suggest 'advances' in philosophy are pretty rare. I wonder if the last ones were Kant 1781 and Frege 1879. (Neither were at Cambridge!)
I would suggest that Bertram Russel (in showing the flaw in Frege's constuction of number, and as a result advancing the axiomatic definition of set theory, ie why 1+1=2) and Karl Popper (in formulating empirical science in terms of falsification) are good examples of advances in philosophy in the 20th century.
What is it with the UK and major infrastructure projects? We need HS2, HS3 and two new runways at Heathrow, all open by *yesterday*. Rail and Aviation infrastructure are both already over capacity, and unscheduled delays are already costing the economy billions every year.
If the issue is cost overruns (or more likely initial underestimates for political reasons) then fire the management, Japan and France don't seem to have the same problems with their HS lines.
It took Brunel three years from getting Parliamentary approval to having trains running between London and Bristol. HS2 has already has three years and they've not laid a mile of track, LHR haven't started bulldozing for the new runway either. How did we ever build a motorway network only half a century ago?
All Boris's Christmases come at once if Macron blocks any changes, leading to No Deal.....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies. Macron will sign up at the Council when everything is agreed, no sooner. Just as Macron was going to veto an extension in HYUFD's imagination because that was what was being reported, until he didn't. Macron isn't the key player here, Merkel and Varadkar are.
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
The Irish press is becoming increasingly worried about No Deal and their governments refusal to say what they are going to do about it.
Indeed and Merkel has just started a face saving manoeuvre to permit Varadkar to back down.
He was always bluffing it was obvious he was always bluffing but it didn't matter when he faced in May and Robbins opponents who were going to fold. Now Boris is calling his bluff he needs a way out. The writing it on the wall.
He can either be the fool who caused a no deal Brexit by insisting on a backstop designed to prevent it ... or he can be the statesman who found the last minute compromise and be a hero who avoided no deal. It's obvious which way he will go as much as people here flap about in denial.
Not only is it obvious but I suspect Merkel wouldn't have done this yesterday had Varadkar not already agreed it with her.
All Boris's Christmases come at once if Macron blocks any changes, leading to No Deal.....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies. Macron will sign up at the Council when everything is agreed, no sooner. Just as Macron was going to veto an extension in HYUFD's imagination because that was what was being reported, until he didn't. Macron isn't the key player here, Merkel and Varadkar are.
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
The Irish press is becoming increasingly worried about No Deal and their governments refusal to say what they are going to do about it.
Indeed and Merkel has just started a face saving manoeuvre to permit Varadkar to back down.
He was always bluffing it was obvious he was always bluffing but it didn't matter when he faced in May and Robbins opponents who were going to fold. Now Boris is calling his bluff he needs a way out. The writing it on the wall.
He can either be the fool who caused a no deal Brexit by insisting on a backstop designed to prevent it ... or he can be the statesman who found the last minute compromise and be a hero who avoided no deal. It's obvious which way he will go as much as people here flap about in denial.
Not only is it obvious but I suspect Merkel wouldn't have done this yesterday had Varadkar not already agreed it with her.
If No Deal is no problem, why would Varadkar destroy his political career by backing down?
All Boris's Christmases come at once if Macron blocks any changes, leading to No Deal.....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies. Macron will sign up at the Council when everything is agreed, no sooner. Just as Macron was going to veto an extension in HYUFD's imagination because that was what was being reported, until he didn't. Macron isn't the key player here, Merkel and Varadkar are.
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
The Irish press is becoming increasingly worried about No Deal and their governments refusal to say what they are going to do about it.
Indeed and Merkel has just started a face saving manoeuvre to permit Varadkar to back down.
He was always bluffing it was obvious he was always bluffing but it didn't matter when he faced in May and Robbins opponents who were going to fold. Now Boris is calling his bluff he needs a way out. The writing it on the wall.
He can either be the fool who caused a no deal Brexit by insisting on a backstop designed to prevent it ... or he can be the statesman who found the last minute compromise and be a hero who avoided no deal. It's obvious which way he will go as much as people here flap about in denial.
Not only is it obvious but I suspect Merkel wouldn't have done this yesterday had Varadkar not already agreed it with her.
All Boris's Christmases come at once if Macron blocks any changes, leading to No Deal.....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies. Macnd Varadkar are.
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
The Irish pown.
He was always bluffing it was obvious he was always bluffing but it didn't matter when he faced in May and Robbins opponents who were going to fold. Now Boris is calling his bluff he needs a way out. The writing it on the wall.
He can either be the fool who caused a no deal Brexit by insisting on a backstop designed to prevent it ... or he can be the statesman who found the last minute compromise and be a hero who avoided no deal. It's obvious which way he will go as much as people here flap about in denial.
Not only is it obvious but I suspect Merkel wouldn't have done this yesterday had Varadkar not already agreed it with her.
If he goes forward with No Deal it will be a brave call. Ireland will simply be sacrificing itself for the greater good of Brussels. While promises of support have been made, time moves on and the people change. I rether suspect Ireland will go back to being a small wet island nobody cares about but much poorer in the process.
Either build HS2 or don't. @MalcolmG take on "Jobs for the boys" sounds wildly accurate. £7Bn spent already ? Who has this 7£Bn - as it is our, (taxpayers) money shouldn't we be able to see a breakdown... and what these companies have actually done for their wonga.
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
As a small example not far from you take a look at this place:
London is a positive thing. We’re lucky to have it. People need to accept that. There is a lot of them and us nonsense.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
I count my blessings every day that we have London, what would I do with all the money if if it was not being siphoned off to London.
+1 As an example:-
Transport spending in London is £3,636 per person, compared with £519 in the North-East and £511 in Yorkshire, over the next 15 years.
Now equally I could annoy Malcolm and talk about how little the North gets compared to Scotland per capita but attacking London is very easy.
Eek, all part of the same game, at least the North can influence the spending , no matter who we vote for Scotland cannot change it. However your point is valid and the North should feel as aggrieved as Scotland.
In order to have money siphoned off to London, one would need to pay more than one received back. The siphoning takes place from, not to, London.
Comments
Surely nothing has changed. I feel like I am missing something. Am I?
Boris is winning.
Proponents of the scheme are clearly very convinced it is necessary and I lack the knowledge to counter that but it is so expensive and who doesnt think costs will continue to rise? MarqueeMark has a point and they never are wrong on the underside.
That may not be reason enough to cancel it but politically it makes it a tougher sell.
NB “workable”, for the hard of reading.
And when we were exploring in very deep water offshore Tanzania, we had to take account of coelacanth spawning grounds. Given only a handful have ever been seen, and zero is known about their life cycle......
(oh and I love this fact: They have tiny brains. A coelacanth's brain occupies only 1.5 percent of its cranial cavity. The rest of the braincase is filled with fat. Cue cheap gag about politicians......)
I accept the problem, but it'll never be cheaper or easier than today it's only going to get harder
Mutti just repeated the same message - the backstop can go if there is a credible alternative - but in a positive way so as not to play along with the "blame the EU for no deal" shtick.
C'mon.
In my experience, planes and the location of airports have more impact on business decisions than trains. You need to be located within one hour direct of a decent international airport to thrive.
Even including phase 2, HS2 is only 530Km (330M) and the land aquisition costs are only around £2 billion, so how can the projected total cost get to £60 billion ?
The Channel Tunnel, a far more difficult piece of engineering, only cost £12 billion (€13.2 billion) in today's money.
.
Phase 1 to Birmingham is mainly about adding capacity to the WCML. This will allow more standard trains to stop at Watford Junction and Milton Keynes and also increase freight paths. Lord Berkeley as the ex chairman of the Rail Freight Group is interested in this latter point.
There is limited additional capacity for new trains north of London. Commuter trains are mainly 12 cars (240 metres) in length already. HS2 will enable the existing intercity train paths to be taken up by commuter trains helping commuters in the Northern Home Counties. This point has not been highlighted enough.
Phase 2A to Crewe should have been part of Phase 1 as Crewe is better railway junction to end HS2. In addition the end of Phase 1 in the Trent Valley causes a big bottle neck south of Stafford and potentially reduced freight paths in that area.
The Eastern leg of Phase 2B to Leeds has a big problem on routing, particularly given the geology around Sheffield. This leg is mainly about time reductions particularly between Birmingham and Leeds. Remember Phase 2B provides better connections between Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. It will help increase capacity on the MML mainly in Northamptonshire where a lot of housing growth is expected. It does not help Leicester, although a southern connection to the HS2 line at Toton is being proposed to provide a faster service between Leicester and Leeds.
The Western leg of Phase 2B is important to interlink with Northern Powerhouse Rail particularly between Liverpool and Manchester. The main problem with the current proposals is that Manchester HS2 Station is a terminus.
Our PM.
(Goes back to retirement/lurking)
https://tinyurl.com/yyn75qu9
A quarter of staff members working on the HS2 project are paid over £100 in their yearly salary, startling new data has found.
Salaries and perks over £100,000 were paid to 318 HS2 Ltd officials last year, which is more than double the number of staff members paid the salary in 2015-16.
A Freedom of Information request by The Times found that 112 workers received more than a £150,000 salary, with 15 receiving over £251,000 a year.
Given that they have started preparatory work around Euston, I think they should build to Birmingham. And if Boris is serious about Manchester to Leeds, they might as well do Birmingham to Manchester too. Ideally the station in Manchester would be a through station without the need for trains to reverse. But I would not bother with Birmingham to Leeds via Toton. What they should do is electrify the MML properly, but bi-modes seem to be in vogue these days so I won't hold my breath.
In Britain every one of those trenches is a tunnel.
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1164173498278928385?s=21
I think it depends whether he thinks there are more votes in heroically pressing ahead with No Deal, do or die, or in heroically finding a magic solution, I shouldn't think he actually cares much about Northern Ireland (frankly most of us don't want a renewed conflict and anything else is details), and although the DUP will see through any smoke and mirrors, he probably has enough credibility in the Tories to minimise a revolt.
It's never the right time to spend lots of money on long term infrastructure. The arguments against are always, on any one day, compelling.
But if you keep on not doing it, day after day, week after week, year after year, then the march of time and the progress of others does its thing and one day you realize you are stuffed.
It's akin to upgrading your personal technology - laptop, phone etc. Exactly the same applies there.
1. On finding a viable alternative to the backstop in 30 days.
2. In delivering a no problem No Deal Brexit.
I guess this is the consequence of his very short-term perspective. However, in agreeing an alternative to the back stop is required, Johnson has conceded that there is a logic to the backstop. And in saying No Deal will be fine he’s accepting any issues that do arise will be the result of his government getting the planning wrong. Longer term, both will bite.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/aug/22/as-an-iranian-academic-im-fed-up-of-being-asked-to-focus-on-poverty-and-oppression
Now presumably discussions can start between Boris and his team and Barnier or whoever is responsible today to find the replacement.
Not only that but you all seem to have missed a major political difference. It looked like the idea of renegotiations were going to be dismissed out of hand but then Boris has won his first victory. No Deal is now officially not the policy, renegotiations are not just suggested but underway. When Parliament resumes Boris will be able to report on progress for his negotiations and a VONC at that stage will be premature. It was hard enough it seemed for a VONC to be won when No Deal was the presumed policy, to get a Corbyn-led VONC through Parliament while negotiations are ongoing will be impossible.
30 days from yesterday takes us to Friday 27 September. No doubt then over the weekend this will all be resolved one way or another. Parliament then will sit Monday 30 September and if a VONC is tabled then it will be voted on Tuesday 1 October.
A pre-Hallowe'en General Election is now not just unlikely it is practically impossible.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1164446280246054912
Transport spending in London is £3,636 per person, compared with £519 in the North-East and £511 in Yorkshire, over the next 15 years.
Now equally I could annoy Malcolm and talk about how little the North gets compared to Scotland per capita but attacking London is very easy.
I work in a decentralised company where we use video calling as a primary means of communication. Yet that remains uncommon.
A deal IS the Johnson plan - but 31 Oct is not feasible.
The drama and the tension will build, culminating in a last gasp agreement to extend art 50 for "fresh talks with no pre-conditions".
Will be sold by Johnson as a Win.
There is no logic whatsoever in continuing to demand the backstop now that Parliament is never going to pass it. It is pointless. And this new timetable confirms that, if talks fail then Boris will be able to say he tried his best but we're now in October we are leaving this month - and the EU won't get its backstop anyway. Or if the talks succeed then an open border remains possible and legal.
Logic dictates the talks will succeed. But Remainers can continue to live in denial until they do.
This is all proceeding exactly as I said would happen a year ago. When this happens in 30 days time you can all bow down before me and say "I'm sorry, you were right all along".
I've become ambivalent about HS2, I don't think the business case is there for it (Unlike LHR3 which needs to go ahead) and would rather the north was connected up with proper train links.
Also I'm not sure who lives in Birmingham with the intention of commuting to London, let alone further north :E !
Boris needs to look into the whites of Varadkar's eyes, have him convinced that the backstop is dead, then offer a fig leaf for the EU to back down on so they can save face.
https://tinyurl.com/y6pftyxp
The problem now is that the UK, since the 1980s, has also failed to upgrade its motorway network. For example, In the north of Scotland we have Victorian rail signalling and slow and twisty single track roads. The Aberdeen "by pass" only opened 6 months ago after a 60 year wait, and the A90 need serious safety upgrades, so it still takes over three hours to cover the c.130 miles to Edinburgh.
Apart from LHR Terminals (but not runways) and the Swanwick ATC centre aside, neither has there been major investment in our air infrastructure. So dingy airports: Aberdeen and Manchester are especially horrible, and make-do capacity upgrades on M42, M25 and now M4.
The contrast to the integrated and much lower cost transport systems in France and indeed Germany, Italy, Spain and increasingly now Poland is now quite painful.
Unless the UK gets a grip of its infrastructure then the fundamentals of the UK economy will grow steadily weaker and to be honest the increasing squalor of our public spaces should be a matter of great concern to all of us.
So, OK, here is the inevitable Brexit comment: Brexit is not the root of the problem, it is just another symptom of a system that is breaking down across the board. We are ruled by public school journalist bullshitters, not engineers. These people do not understand anything about administration, they only "get" PR and presentation. This is why they have been so successful at lying to us.
However, as the character Legasov says in Chernobyl "Every lie lie we tell, incurs a debt to the truth, sooner or late that debt has to be paid". The fact is that whatever the "optic", the years of under-investment, cutting corners and kicking problems down the line is finally beginning to catch up with the UK. The narrow and self serving elite has slowly stripped legitimacy from the government system and now, one by one the chickens are coming home to roost. Its not just infrastructure. Our schools, pensions, social care, health care, local government and indeed our very survival as a *United* Kingdom all now face deep and intractable crises.
Brexit, in the hands of the patently unfit cabinet currently holding office, will of course be a disaster- years and years of Suez style humiliation, but it will not be the only disaster.
Business which involves lots of international travel will benefit from a good airport while business which involves lots of material movement will benefit from good road links.
Both will slowly gravitate to areas which provide the transport links which most suit them.
Get it built.
And Heathrow expansion.
And the rest.
Place needs a major upgrade.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/21/home-office-to-assign-border-force-jobs-to-agency-workers
The Local/Commuting Trains will be on the current line.
No wonder GERS confuses you.
Brexit and a GE in 1st half of 2020.
If the issue is cost overruns (or more likely initial underestimates for political reasons) then fire the management, Japan and France don't seem to have the same problems with their HS lines.
It took Brunel three years from getting Parliamentary approval to having trains running between London and Bristol. HS2 has already has three years and they've not laid a mile of track, LHR haven't started bulldozing for the new runway either. How did we ever build a motorway network only half a century ago?
Grr. Rant over, back to lurking...
He was always bluffing it was obvious he was always bluffing but it didn't matter when he faced in May and Robbins opponents who were going to fold. Now Boris is calling his bluff he needs a way out. The writing it on the wall.
He can either be the fool who caused a no deal Brexit by insisting on a backstop designed to prevent it ... or he can be the statesman who found the last minute compromise and be a hero who avoided no deal. It's obvious which way he will go as much as people here flap about in denial.
Not only is it obvious but I suspect Merkel wouldn't have done this yesterday had Varadkar not already agreed it with her.
https://www.nchsr.ac.uk/locations/doncaster-campus/
Despite Doncaster abounding with cheap land they built the campus on one of the most desirable sites in the town.
Its a very nice building but it doesn't seem to have many students.
https://www.ft.com/content/6c3c3828-c7bd-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9
https://twitter.com/JohnFerry18/status/1164155320060600320?s=20