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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the economy and the morning’s polling news
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the economy and the morning’s polling news
On a bare uniform national swing this is not enough for UKIP to win a single seat but it can damage other parties, particularly the Tories. This latest poll shows that 19% of 2010 CON voters are now saying purple – one of the reasons why the blues are down at 31%.
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FPT Scrapheap_as_was said:
» Genuine Q - as a benchmark, how many can name their MP?
I've seen a poll on this - IIRC it was something like 35%. I'd guess it's a lot higher in marginal seats - I find that nearly everyone 'knows' both me and my successor as we've been bombarding them with stuff forever. A friend who lives in a safe seat says she never gets political material from anyone and she had no clue who her MP was until I told her (she then said she'd vaguely heard of him).
PCCs have a much larger catchment area and no budget for communications with them, so like Euro-MPs they're a bit stumped what to do. The Notts PCC does lots of visits to CAT meetings etc. which at least reach some of the people most interested in local crime and he tries to accept any invitation to talk to local groups - I'm not sure what we can realistically expect beyond that and a good website.
White collar workers will become the new poor as their jobs are replaced by computers, the Government’s advisor on social mobility has warned.
Employees such as legal clerks and local government administrators will see their wages collapse as new technology makes their skills less valuable, just like manual workers have, Alan Milburn said.
Across the United States and Europe jobs working life has polarised into “lovely jobs” and “lousy jobs”, with the wages at the bottom end of the jobs market falling behind growth in the rest of the economy thanks to advances in technology, Mr Milburn said.
That fate will soon be shared by office workers as their jobs are outsourced to emerging economies and replaced by computers, he warns, “hollowing out the middle of the labour market”.
“It is likely that as the cost of computing power continues to fall technology will replace many more middle-class jobs that rely on repetitive and routine tasks – or at least make them less valuable in the labour market,” he told the Resolution Foundation. “In other words, the earnings squeeze already felt by people at the bottom could increasingly spread to those in the middle.”
The assumption that a rising economy will “lift all boats” and result in better wages is no longer true, he said........
Real wages did not grow for blue-collar workers from 2003 until 2008, he said, and were “propped up” by tax credits at a cost of £20bn a year. The state can “no longer afford” to support such measures, he said.
Mr Milburn said he did not believe immigration from eastern Europe after 2004 had brought down wages for unskilled workers and had boosted growth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10448086/White-collar-workers-to-become-new-poor-as-computers-take-over.html
Is it not typical for a HMG advisor to wake up to a fact that has been apparent for the last thirty years - that IT has reduced and is still reducing the number of office and clerical jobs. Why do we pay such people who were asleep when they were in government - or were they so detached from everyday life that living in their Westminster bubble (and not in their NE constituency) that they did not know what was happening in the real world.
"All Pres. Ed's Men"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Just on high streets: they've got to emphasise doing what the internet can't, because there's no chance of competing on price or range of stock. Mixing shopping with other activities (coffee shops, cinemas that sort of thing) could be a good idea.
Edited extra bit: and book-signings. Waterstones in Leeds does quite a lot of them.
On-topic: this is unsurprising. How many can name their MP? Or knew what the setup was before commissioners? Or understand we have an enormous deficit?
Trials at three large office buildings found that signs advertising how many calories could be burnt by climbing a particular set of stairs increased the number of people using them by up to 29 per cent.
The scheme, based on behavioural economics or "nudge theory", is aimed at subtly influencing people's habits to help strengthen their hearts through short bursts of exercise.
Stair climbing is classed by health experts as "vigorous" exercise, burning more calories than jogging, and studies have suggested that climbing stairs for seven minutes each say could halve the risk of suffering a heart attack over the next decade.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10447405/Calorie-labels-fitted-to-staircases.html
Are people that thick or stupid as a result of the education system or just accustomed to being lazy?
NP has posted interesting info on this and last thread which provides context to the sneering.
A senior official has revealed that the White Paper, the Scottish Government's blueprint for the new state, will acknowledge that Alex Salmond's key economic policy would depend on negotiations with the UK Government.
Throughout the referendum debate Mr Salmond has stated an independent Scotland will keep sterling in a currency union with the UK, arguing the arrangement would be in the UK's best interests.
But Mr McKay said different levels of conditionality would apply to the various plans and aspirations for an independent Scotland set out in the document. It would include some cast-iron plans, he said, and other proposals which the Scottish Government was committed to achieving in negotiations.
Giving the example of the proposed currency union - a plan to share the pound and the Bank of England - he said: "We cannot assert as an a priori fact we can achieve a currency union with the UK, but we can set out why we think it is the best option." He said other White Paper proposals would take the form of political promises.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/no-pledge-on-currency-in-upcoming-referendum-white-paper.22699484
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/13/falkirk-labour-gregor-poynton-paid-recruits
Then at Easter I buggered up my ankle again, and was on crutches for six months. And the lift stopped working. For months.
That was less fun. Especially when the uni said they could not rehouse me on a lower floor. ;-(
We will automatically be have to negotiate membership of the EU
We will automatically be have to negotiate membership of NATO
Is the smear team now in action too ?
So the plan for financial independence is,.....er....., not to be independent at all.
The Bank of England will control the currency, interest rates, bank regulation, etc. And they would do this to suit England's needs. If we see England booming and Scotland not - well you'll get higher interest rates anyway. Suck it up.
FFS! What does 'Independence' actyuallu mean? Independent from whom to make what decisions?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24904143
Unfortunately, I have no idea whether to take them seriously on this. The IPCC got its medium term forecasts of global temperature wrong in 2007, and this year, on the back of being wrong, increased the chance of them being right from 90% to 95%.
No explanation is offered for the plateau in temperatures. Like the EU reality and the political position seem to have little resemblance to one another.
It's also worth recalling that the then chief scientific officer said a few years ago that by 2100 the only habitable landmass in the world would be Antarctica (due to global warming).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2506917/Best-place-live-UK-Er-Solihull.html
That's the "Union Dividend" (sic) for you.
It will take time for the high street to be resolved. I always envy some of the continental towns with their square which serves as a centre for communal activity along with their cafes, restaurants and specialist shops. At present I buy most of my IT requirements online but all clothes and food locally as I wish to assess the quality of both.
As a matter of interest, my elder son has acquired a McLaren 12C Spider and we are due to take it for a track day this weekend - should I wear a racing helmet or flying helmet as I gather it does 0-60 in 3.1seconds.
Minor note: some reckon that McLaren lost its F1 edge when it started making road cars. Since Hakkinen left they've had just a single title win, I believe. They should've won both when they had Alonso and Hamilton, but there we are.
When I heard this broadcast this morning, I thought about the increased amount of melt water coming form both the Poles (according to the same scientists) which would normally reduce the pH of the oceans, and whether that would be enough to stabilise the pH.
There has been instances of bleaching of coral, but am not sure whether that was due to the coral growth bringing it nearer the surface and so being affected by sunlight and increased water temperature or change in acidity.
Also do we know how many samples were taken and where they are taken and over what time?
Off topic - there is a very important contribution from Alan Milburn on the future of employment and the UK economy, and the challenge posed by globalisation and technology, in today's Telegraph. Very clear and good analysis, with some uncomfortable truths for all political parties, including his own.
twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/400904263687090178/photo/1
Darien is in Panama.
What can go wrong ?
YouGov/Times poll In the South, excluding London, 30 per cent of voters said they would never vote for Labour. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3921768.ece?CMP=SOC-appshare-iphonetto-tw-ios-1.6 …
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 17m
YouGov/Times poll: In the North, 39 per cent said they would never vote Tory http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3921768.ece?CMP=SOC-appshare-iphonetto-tw-ios-1.6 …
A divided country...
"At the end of the 1950s, three boys from ordinary homes went up to Cambridge. Their names were Derek, Trevor and Ian. Derek was an East End boy. His mother worked in a draper’s shop, while his father ran a tobacconist in Chingford. Trevor came from Ipswich. His dad was a cabinet maker. Ian’s family was a bit better off. His civil engineer father sent him to the private Bolton school.
Step forward, Sir Derek Jacobi, Sir Trevor Nunn and Sir Ian McKellen. Along with Sir Peter Hall (son of a railway signalman, degree at Cambridge), these theatrical knights have done as much as anyone to keep culture alive......
Sir Derek told Radio Times this week that his working-class origins have helped him to “play the man inside the king” when mastering roles such as Lear..... How did all that teeming language get inside his head? Simples. He went to a grammar school.
At Leyton County High, Derek had first-class teachers, became a keen member of the drama club and starred in a Hamlet which received rave reviews at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe. How many sons of Leytonstone do you reckon are winning scholarships to read history at Cambridge today, or taking plays to Edinburgh? How many white working-class boys, at the age of 18, know the soliloquies of Shakespeare’s philosopher prince?
My mother’s “home readers’’ list – not her set texts, but what she was expected to read in her own time – issued by her South Wales grammar school in 1950, featured Sir Walter Scott and the Brontës as a warm-up. It would terrify her granddaughter, who studied The Go-Between and other emaciated volumes for AS level.
Only politicians and the obdurate would suggest that a young person educated in a comprehensive today gets a fraction of the depth of knowledge that a previous generation acquired in a grammar school, let alone what their lucky peers are still receiving in the private system.
Why else did the Daughter’s comp-educated friends all drop language A levels after it became painfully clear that their A* in GCSE French hadn’t taught them any French?. Meanwhile, the Daughter’s mates from private school, who were taught grammar and who know that the imperfect and the past historic don’t necessarily mean drugs and a nude selfie, forge ahead."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/10446858/You-can-take-the-boy-out-of-the-grammar-school....html
You are very right and equally that applies to the S. Wales valleys and similar places that have lost their major industry. But they do not want to move and expect the jobs to come to them - yet we have thousands of migrants from Eastern Europe who are very willing to move to improve both themselves and their families back home.
Two things mitigate against more jobs coming to the UK's jobless places: infrastructure - both physical and electronic and there are signs that the electronic infrastructure will be slow in coming to those places; and lack of skill sets and good education. Both are solvable but whilst we are waiting, the rest of the world will pass us by, leaving the UK with a growing number of unemployable and dependent on the state for their income.
"Most famous cultural figure: Richard III is not the only cultural icon [of Leicester]..."
Bloody corpse-thieves and King-stealers.
Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious summer by this sun of York!
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bookie-refuses-pay-out-11k-2785642
"A BOOKIE refused to pay out £11,000 to a punter after a seven-race bet came in – because there was a line printed on the betting slip.
Ryan Clark placed a £1 accumulator bet on seven horses at races in Wolverhampton, Plumpton and Kempton Park. They all won, netting him a bumper return of £11,261.
But when he went to collect his winnings at Coral in Kilmarnock, the bookies refused to pay up – and offered him just £116."
This time obsessing about Falkirk in the New Statesman
Meanwhile, the truth about what happened in Falkirk is lost in ongoing factional warfare. Senior party figures want investigations reopened; Mr Miliband’s office does not. Separately, Unite has become embroiled in controversy over allegations that its officers encouraged the intimidation of management in an industrial dispute at the nearby Grangemouth refinery. Again, Mr Miliband felt obliged to distance himself from the institution that furnishes up to a quarter of his party’s annual funding. That the relationship is dysfunctional can no longer be disputed.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/why-trade-unions-have-be-more-voices-reaction
I see 'farmers' ranks higher up your news agenda today than 'currency'.....
BTW very few people bet to lose - but unfortunately most do - or else the bookmakers could not exist. It is only clever people like OGH who carefully views the odds so that he most often comes out on the right side and that is why he often finds it difficult to place the bet. All bookmakers and casinos etc do not like consistent winners - just the odd large one that will tempt in the rest of the flock who will lose.
However, if you can afford to play (bet) as a matter of entertainment then fine but be prepared to lose.
'SCOTTISH Secretary Alistair Carmichael has revealed he is being targeted by so-called Twitter Trolls who he says have been encouraged by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon.'
http://tinyurl.com/lvbens4
At least according to Roger's infantile take on Mitchell yesterday. Or does that only apply to Conservatives?
As you know, I offered my resignation on Tuesday and you asked me to reconsider. I've thought about it and still feel it is better for you and the future unity of the party that I go now.
And goes on to add:
Yet it's not the unattributed shadow cabinet briefings around the mess in Falkirk that has convinced me that the arrangement has run its course (though they don't help). I believe that the report should be published – in full – and the whole truth told as soon as possible so that the record can be made clear. I've still not seen the report but believe there are an awful lot of spurious suppositions being written.
Source: PB Tory Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jul/04/tom-watson-resignation-letter-ed-miliband-full-text
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/punter-picks-up-11261-winnings-2789151
Mind you I can recall the TV programme 'That's life' making a tit of itself when they whinged that because the Argies had beaten Holland in the 1978 World cup final 3/1 after extra time they should pay out on 3-1 as the correct score
Scots Labour MPs slammed after almost a quarter fail to vote against bedroom tax policy in motion put forward by their own party
IN total, 46 Labour MPs failed to show up for vote on spare room policy - including influential members such as Gordon Brown and Anas Sarwar.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-labour-mps-slammed-after-2789769
For instance, the primary example he cites is "How many white working-class boys, at the age of 18, know the soliloquies of Shakespeare’s philosopher prince?"
There are two questions there. One is whether it's important that they should. We can't all be great actors. I've never read or heard any of these soliloquies even though I'm familiar with the Lear plot, and I've done OK, though I may have missed out culturally on that bit. Conversely I read William Faulkner and a bit of translated Camus at school, but so what?
The second is whether the national curriculum should include Lear and exclude The Go-Between, which perhaps one could argue is more relevant to modern life (I wouldn't really know). We can debate it inconclusively but it doesn't really prove anything about the structure of schools either way. Education is about a mixture of career planning and preparing to enjoy life, and those should be separate issues from whether grammar schools should be separate institutions.
Coral will be bang to rights here.
Henner Wapenhans said the new technology could allow the manufacturer to produce parts more quickly, slashing lead times, the Financial Times reported.
“3D printing opens up new possibilities, new design space,” Dr Wapenhans said. “Through the 3D printing process, you’re not constrained [by] having to get a tool in to create a shape. You can create any shape you like.
“There are studies that show one can create better lightweight structures, because you just take the analogy of what nature does and how bones are built up – they’re not solid material.
“And so things that are simple things like brackets can be made a lot lighter.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/10448147/Rolls-Royce-looks-to-make-jet-engine-parts-with-3D-printers.html
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9078451/the-speaker-could-soon-be-silenced/
"The situation is not irreparable. If he cut out the jibes from the chair and concentrated on being studiously impartial, the anger towards him would abate. His opponents know that they don’t have the numbers to remove him in a direct contest and so things would return relatively quickly to the status-quo ante. But if he carries on like this, he is heading for a full-blown confrontation which could — and probably would — end disastrously for him."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9078451/the-speaker-could-soon-be-silenced/
If only he could drop his two clever by three quarters digs & stick to what he does well - helping parliament hold the executive to account....
http://www.guns.com/2013/11/07/solid-concepts-unveils-first-3d-printed-metal-gun-full-size-45-acp-1911-video/
( I have no idea how many components might have been scrapped due to porosity, but the technology is fascinating)
European GDP expanded at 0.1% in the third quarter, in-line with expectations, and down from 0.3% growth in 2Q. (Or, to put it another way, the economy is growing at around a 0.8-0.9% annual clip.) The weak countries were the Netherlands, France, and Italy. In the Netherlands and Italy, the trends are at least improving. In France, they are deteriorating.
The thing about France is that the hole it is in is entirely of its own making, and it is that the government spends 56% of GDP.
56%.
Or, to put it another way, $1 of private sector activity has to carry $1.27 of government activity. That's unsustainable. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard might complain about Berlin preaching austerity, but in France they're not seeing austerity, they're seeing government spending as a percentage of GDP at all-time high levels.
What's interesting is that government spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen in most countries (the UK peaked at 47% in 2009 and will be 44.5% or so this year, even Italy has gone from 52% to around 50%, poor old Greece has seen it drop from 55% to 49.5%, Spain has dropped the most, to just 42% this year).
If the Eurozone fails, it will be because of France.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress 13m
40% of northerners - many right wing on eg immigration/welfare - won't EVER consider voting Tory. New right-of-centre brand required!
It was a little disappointing, but probably because I'd fallen for some of the hype, not least from Roger of this parish. It's a good film though, and certainly Clooney is very watchable. The question is though will he get the credit for the improvement in the economy, or will voters reward George Osborne and the Government instead.
My money's on Clooney, but you never know.
Cant see how their argument could possibly hold. The fact is they took it as an accumulator as the receipt shows, so even if the line meant anything, which I don't think it does, they would still have to honour it.
UK retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.6% in October, against expectations for a 0.1% drop, and clearly a reversal of the 0.7% rise seen in September.
Cyprus GDP numbers are out, and they are much better than I think any of us would have expected, falling just 0.8% in 3Q after a 1.8% drop in 2Q. I would have expected Cyprus to have been much, much worse affected by the resolution of its banking crisis.
And if he was removed it would never be a "disaster" for parliament. Most people wouldn't give a toss.
He does come across as an absolute tw*t and it is quite funny that Labour MPs voted for him just to wind the Tories up. The antics of his wife, his pompous 19th century way of speaking, his obvious dislike of the Tories and his nasty little temper have diminished the standing of speaker anyway.
But I doubt the public expect any less of our political class. I wish Eric Joyce was still about to stick the head on him. That would get my vote.
Bowling is filth but the pitch looks spicy.
Have had a sentimental tickle..
On the face of it, he would appear to have a strong case to take to IBAS, but as we both know, it's a tribunal that is set up by the industry and tends to reflect the views of its paymasters. IBAS can only interpret the rules as laid down by the bookmakers, and these tend to state, in the appropriate legalese, that the bookmaker is always right.
In practice the bad publicity may do the trick. That's how I won my little case a few years back. But it is no foregone conclusion.
General Electric USA is planning to make nozzles using 3D printers which use metal powders.
An example: a firm I know designs hardware and software that can be incorporated into third-party products. To aid this, we make reference designs that show the best practice - how the hardware fits together to get best performance. Originally these were uncased; just bare boards that were sent out for the customer to assemble.
Basically, they did not look very good, and the casing itself can effect performance. So a colleague started designing reference cases, which were then made at very large cost, even using the cheapest system available, producing cases of not high enough quality for end consumers and not matching their individual requirements. For instance, they had to have the maximum amount of buttons and knobs, even if the customer did not need them, leaving either useless buttons or blanking plates.
Now, he designs cases for each individual large customer, matching what we believe are their requirements, and sends out reference designs in such a case. It is much cheaper (especially as the design is done in-house), and apparently the customers very much like it.
It will effect all industrial production. It is simply a case of:
1) Making sure 3d printed materials have a long life (some do not).
2) Reducing the cost.
3) Increasing the range of materials that can be printed. The current titanium systems are cool.
There are so many potential uses. To bring this back to betting, some people are considering 3D printing horseshoes for racehorses.
http://mashable.com/2013/10/19/horse-horseshoes-3d-printing/
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8t9lek56it/YG-Archive-131112-NorthVSouth.pdf
What O'Flynn doesn't mention is that 40% would NEVER vote for UKIP either (the Tory figure is actually 39%) and only 7% would definitely consider voting for UKIP - for the other parties the numbers in the north are: Con: 12, Lab: 26 LibD: 3.
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2013/11/homes-are-not-being-demolished-due-to-spare-room-subsidy-cut.html
The spacewalking scenes are very good though even without 3D, and Clooney gives a typically assured performance. It's pleasantly entertaining rather than great.
Rewatched 2001 Space Odyssey recently. Still sets the bar very high for that kind of film, despite the cheap monkey suits and some very clunky acting.
Really? Married to that?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24928082
A Uniform National Swing estimate would be based on 2010 levels of support, the party is clearly doing far better than then, but is probably barely any stronger in Scotland, London and many larger metropolitan areas. The growth in support will not be evening distributed geographically, using the UNS to estimate the result in Eastleigh or Boston and Skegness for example would be foolish, things have moved on.
You could plausibly do targeted polling of areas were UKIP picks up a lot of seats in 2013/2014 local elections and gauge their potential from that. Frankly though, unless support totally collapses in the run up to 2015 we will probably have to wait till after the election to see what the landscape truly looks like now.