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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes and the Telegraph come under fierce fire from other pol

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes and the Telegraph come under fierce fire from other pollsters over the latest poll

I can't recall a national opinion poll for a leading newspaper being so criticized as tonight's one from ComRes for the Daily Telegraph.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    edited August 2019
    First.

    This is something it has been doing for years and for which I’ve criticised in the past.

    So this isn't anything new with ComRes. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Second!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It appears that @HYUFD was repeatedly polled:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1161175304615993344
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited August 2019
    'Leavers' still making up facts to suit their prejudices. That the Telegraph does it should surprise no one but how the hell did they get Com Res to collude?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Coincidence, I'm sure.....

    https://twitter.com/ComRes/status/1156877440934920193?s=20
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    edited August 2019
    I'm actually rather relieved. If these findings were correct, then the majority of my fellow countrymen would favour direct rule by a Tory placeman over the authority of their own democratically elected representatives. Better to see the death of ComRes's reputation than the death of a nation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    They aren’t known as Comedy Results without cause.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1161018469451784192?s=21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Does Comres methodology help or hinder Labour with the apparent low recall (ceteris paribus) ?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FF43 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Labour. There is a lot of inductive reasoning going on here.
    Starting position. I don't want a Labour Party. Therefore I will argue from my conclusion backwards to reach a Tory anti-EU v LD pro-EU nexus.
    The fact is, even under a leader as spectacularly unimpressive as Corbyn, there is still a hardcore of c 25% who want a social democratic/socialist government, even as Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of debate.
    Me? I don't much care about Brexit. NoDeal is bonkers. So would be Schengen. I would be happy with in or out, provided it had support.
    But I want Corbyn gone, as a means to a Labour government. There are a lot of us about. We aren't going away soon.

    Interesting, I think Schengen is great, and would sign up in a heartbeat. The EU? Not so much.
    Nah. Schengen is dumb. Free movement is great but Schengen itself is a massive security hole that aids crime and terrorism. That is why so many countries end up suspending it when it goes wrong.
    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach. The EU is at its pragmatic best as a trading bloc. At its worst when it goes all idealistic.
    [...]

    I would say removal of borders and free movement is at least as important part of what the EU is, as is free trade. There is neither total freedom of movement nor free trade, but both are real and much more developed than anywhere else in the world.

    I agree and I would go further. The idea of the EU as just a trading bloc has little currency outside the UK.

    Schengen transforms how people think of borders within the EU. This affects people at the individual level: how they work, how they travel, how they live. It enables regions of adjoining countries to work together, to make broken regions into a coherent unitary area.

    Ironically, three years of arguing about the Northern Irish border still hasn’t persuaded the British of the merits of minimal borders.
    It's always been first and foremost an attempt at an eternal peace treaty between France and Germany.
    Peace in Europe *is* a major motivation for the EEC/EU, and I would hope everyone would agree a desirable one but o say the EEC/EU is that "first and foremost" is certainly an over exaggeration. The EU encompases so much more than that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    fpt
    HYUFD said:

    I voted for staying in the EU with all the opt outs just, however a majority of voters voted to Leave the EU to restore sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration through eg the points system Boris wants even with some economic risk. I respect their decision and the Leave vote must be delivered to respect democracy

    Of course. But you don't believe in it. If Jeremy Corbyn was voted in tomorrow we would all respect the decision of the electorate, etc, etc but we wouldn't join the Labour Party in order to help him push through his Tesco nationalisation programme.

    You want to stay in the EU. You want to retain single market membership and free movement. The Conservative Party doesn't. It's not your party any more, sadly for you I'm sure.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    edited August 2019
    I remember the days when saying such things about pollsters would have brought down the ban hammer.

    It must be Brexit.

    (Of course, if the pollsters are so outraged by ComRes, they will doubtless be putting out their own polling on the issue, gratis....)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    MarqueeMark said:

    I remember the days when saying such things about pollsters would have brught down the ban hammer.

    It must be Brexit.

    (Of course, if the pollsters are so outraged by ComRes, they will doubtless be putting out their own polling on the issue, gratis....)

    They already have.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1161018469451784192?s=21

    I believe they will be polling on this again soon.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's tempting to blame Cummings for this deceit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Mike. You’ve missed the most important tweet about this poll.

    It appears ComRes have broken MRS/BPC rules with this poll.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike. You’ve missed the most important tweet about this poll.

    It appears ComRes have broken MRS/BPC rules with this poll.

    Rules are so 2010.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    And I see ComRis did that thing of referring to 'Mr Johnson'/'The prime minister'/'Al' as the chummier 'Boris'. Okay, I do it, but it's hardly maintaining scientific neutrality.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mysticrose said:

    It's tempting to blame Cummings for this deceit.

    Is this another bus?

    IT ISN'T 54% IT'S ONLY 44%

    "Only" 44% - so still quite a lot then.......?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1161194391828094977

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1161196704231755777
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CarlottaVance said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's tempting to blame Cummings for this deceit.

    Is this another bus?

    IT ISN'T 54% IT'S ONLY 44%

    "Only" 44% - so still quite a lot then.......?
    If the questions were asked in the order given above by Mike, it looks like a classic of Yes Prime Minister polling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Yes, you can legitimately leave out don't knows from a VI poll on the basis that when it comes to voting there is indeed an option not to take part at all, by abstaining or spoiling the ballot.

    But if you are polling whether people support, oppose, or are unsure about a proposal, they really should be reporting all three categories, since you're trying to discover the balance of opinion across a whole population, and not a subset who may or may not be likely to take any particular action as a consequence.

    This is quite obvious if you imagine a highly obscure and arcane issue where almost everyone doesn't know and only a tiny minority have a view.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited August 2019
    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
    Read what Richard Tyndall put. Impossible to disagree with him.

    In this day and age the laudable aim of frictionless borders between nations is baloney. Many European countries now recognise this and far more checks have come in. Places have turned their backs on Schengen.

    Schengen belongs to 1980's Metropolitan elitism. Lovely idea for lovely people in a lovely cuddly era. This is the age of terrorism and trafficking.

    It reminds me very much of this wonderful 30 second sketch featuring Rowan Atkinson:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4VUQTLznwU&list=PLE2BF3F639231952C

    :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Gallowgate said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike. You’ve missed the most important tweet about this poll.

    It appears ComRes have broken MRS/BPC rules with this poll.

    Rules are so 2010.
    Still it will be fun for a pollster to be expelled from the MRS/BPC
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Finally, perhaps we have a way out of this mess.

    All we have to do is convince the Irish that it was the French who started all this trouble between us, and for all those centuries they thought we were ruling over them it was actually Normans and Angevins.

    Then they'll be on our side against the furriners, and everything wll be OK.

    I get the feeble joke, but as a matter of historic fact, England did not invade Ireland until England was ruled by French-speaking Normans, an elite who did this - very much - under the flag of a Norman/Angevin/French speaking empire. And the Normans were copying their Viking ancestors.

    After that, yes, the English took up the habit of invading Ireland with absolute gusto, and committed hideous atrocities in doing it, but saying England or the English were the only villains in this post-Viking drama is absurd, and, factually, very wrong.
    You do realise that King John lost Normandy 815 years ago?
    And I'm still mad about it
    Not as mad as the Queen, she still calls herself the Duke of Normandy.

    PS - Why is she the Duke of Normandy and not the Duchess of Normandy? She wouldn’t be the first Queen with gender identity issues.
    I believe it's because the 'lawful sovereign' was declared in 1399 to be at the same time 'the Duke of Normandy and Duke of Lancaster.' So due to an oversight they made those titles gender-neutral.

    But it may be as simple as because the title descends with the monarch and you cannot inherit Dukedoms through a duchess.
    I always assumed that the main title is duke and duchess is the wife of a Duke, so Queen Elizabeth II could be called the Duchess of Edinburgh, but she is the Duke of Lancster.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Comres methodology help or hinder Labour with the apparent low recall (ceteris paribus) ?

    According to YouGov, it helps Labour. However I think their reasoning is flawed, because it assumes that everyone was telling the truth about who they voted for when asked in 2017. Given Grenfell and the general polling just after the election, it's very possible some people lied. I don't see any other explanation for why Labour voters suffer this false recall so much more than Tories given that both parties have so many disillusioned voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Stark_Dawning said:

    And I see ComRis did that thing of referring to 'Mr Johnson'/'The prime minister'/'Al' as the chummier 'Boris'. Okay, I do it, but it's hardly maintaining scientific neutrality.

    This is a good point, he should be referred to as either the Prime minister, Boris Johnson or Johnson by anyone purporting to be official news media or a pollster.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Mysticrose said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
    Read what Richard Tyndall put. Impossible to disagree with him.

    In this day and age the laudable aim of frictionless borders between nations is baloney. Many European countries now recognise this and far more checks have come in. Places have turned their backs on Schengen.

    Schengen belongs to 1980's Metropolitan elitism. Lovely idea for lovely people in a lovely cuddly era. This is the age of terrorism and trafficking.

    It reminds me very much of this wonderful 30 second sketch featuring Rowan Atkinson:
    Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    AlastairMeeks said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's tempting to blame Cummings for this deceit.

    Is this another bus?

    IT ISN'T 54% IT'S ONLY 44%

    "Only" 44% - so still quite a lot then.......?
    If the questions were asked in the order given above by Mike, it looks like a classic of Yes Prime Minister polling.
    A good point.

    Although even taken individually the questions are worded to encourage a yes answer.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 499
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1094352517306159106
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike. You’ve missed the most important tweet about this poll.

    It appears ComRes have broken MRS/BPC rules with this poll.

    One expects the Telegraph to publish baseless propaganda - it has long ceased to have any pretensions to the objective news coverage for which it was once well known.

    But it is surprising that Comres allowed itself to be used in this way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Mysticrose said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
    Read what Richard Tyndall put. Impossible to disagree with him.

    In this day and age the laudable aim of frictionless borders between nations is baloney. Many European countries now recognise this and far more checks have come in. Places have turned their backs on Schengen.

    Schengen belongs to 1980's Metropolitan elitism. Lovely idea for lovely people in a lovely cuddly era. This is the age of terrorism and trafficking.
    Yep, definitely no terrorism in the 70s and 80s. What an innocent time it was...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    CarlottaVance said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's tempting to blame Cummings for this deceit.

    Is this another bus?

    IT ISN'T 54% IT'S ONLY 44%

    "Only" 44% - so still quite a lot then.......?
    Or a minority of people, as the old-fashioned of us would have it.

    I find it worrying that as many as 44% want to suspend democracy for the purpose of enacting a particular interpretation of a democratic vote.

    On the upside that's a lot of people to be taxed to pay for the costs of it all. So there is that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    With the protests in Hong Kong, its worth remembering what happened in Tiananmen:

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Surprisingly, ComRes seems to be on first name terms with the prime minister, as well - "Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means ..."

    Surely that's an innovation?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Oddly I don't recall people getting upset when don't knows were ignored from previous polls.

    :wink:

    Haven't we previously been told that people attack polls because they don't like the results ?

    :wink:

    Whatever the situation people will spin the numbers that suits them best.

    As an example take the employment / unemployment numbers.

    Last month unemployment fell by 51k over the quarter but employment only rose by 28k - guess which aspect leavers focused on and which remainers chose.

    This month unemployment has increased by 31k over the quarter but employment has increased by 114k.

    Now which aspect will leavers focus on and which will remainers focus on ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited August 2019
    Chelyabinsk said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1094352517306159106

    That poll had a majority for delay even if you included DKs.

    I wasn’t creating a majority where none existed, unlike ComRes/The Telegraph.

    Next.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited August 2019
    Chris said:

    Surprisingly, ComRes seems to be on first name terms with the prime minister, as well - "Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means ..."

    Surely that's an innovation?

    Lords Cooper and Ashcroft were on first name terms with David Cameron (pbuh).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    CarlottaVance said:

    With the protests in Hong Kong, its worth remembering what happened in Tiananmen:

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre

    Also worth remembering that the Chinese authorities have not ruled out using force to recover Taiwan. They may use HK as a test case.

    If they use lethal force in HK I expect a lot of huffing and puffing in the rest of the world but no action.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chelyabinsk said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1094352517306159106

    That poll had a majority for delay even if you included DKs.

    I wasn’t creating a majority where none existed, unlike ComRes/The Telegraph.

    Next.
    So this way of presenting polling is only misleading if it straddles 50%? How does that work?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Cyclefree said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    With the protests in Hong Kong, its worth remembering what happened in Tiananmen:

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre

    Also worth remembering that the Chinese authorities have not ruled out using force to recover Taiwan. They may use HK as a test case.

    If they use lethal force in HK I expect a lot of huffing and puffing in the rest of the world but no action.
    Why did we accept a leasehold? We should have demanded a freehold on Hong Kong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited August 2019
    Stereotomy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chelyabinsk said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1094352517306159106

    That poll had a majority for delay even if you included DKs.

    I wasn’t creating a majority where none existed, unlike ComRes/The Telegraph.

    Next.
    So this way of presenting polling is only misleading if it straddles 50%? How does that work?
    A lot of flaws with this polling but a general rule isn’t that you shouldn’t confuse a plurality with a majority, especially if you ignore DKs.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    I gather ComRes have acknowledged that their polling format can be improved.

    Here's a sneak preview of their next poll:

    1. I love Boris.
    Agree/Don't Know

    2. Ignorance is Strength.
    Agree/Don't Know

    3. We have always been at war with Eastasia.
    Agree/Don't Know

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited August 2019
    Stark_Dawning said:

    And I see ComRis did that thing of referring to 'Mr Johnson'/'The prime minister'/'Al' as the chummier 'Boris'. Okay, I do it, but it's hardly maintaining scientific neutrality.

    That is jarring.

    Next poll for the Telegraph - Who do you feel would make the better PM?

    (i) Corbyn/Swinson etc

    (ii) BORIS
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    With the protests in Hong Kong, its worth remembering what happened in Tiananmen:

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre

    Also worth remembering that the Chinese authorities have not ruled out using force to recover Taiwan. They may use HK as a test case.

    If they use lethal force in HK I expect a lot of huffing and puffing in the rest of the world but no action.
    Why did we accept a leasehold? We should have demanded a freehold on Hong Kong.
    We had a freehold on Hong Kong Island and Kowloon. It was only the new territories that were leased for 99 years.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    With the protests in Hong Kong, its worth remembering what happened in Tiananmen:

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre

    Also worth remembering that the Chinese authorities have not ruled out using force to recover Taiwan. They may use HK as a test case.

    If they use lethal force in HK I expect a lot of huffing and puffing in the rest of the world but no action.
    Why did we accept a leasehold? We should have demanded a freehold on Hong Kong.
    It was the only way to make the island of Hong Kong sustainable and I doubt those that did the deal could see into the future.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    kinabalu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    And I see ComRis did that thing of referring to 'Mr Johnson'/'The prime minister'/'Al' as the chummier 'Boris'. Okay, I do it, but it's hardly maintaining scientific neutrality.

    That is jarring.

    Next poll for the Telegraph - Who do you feel would make the better PM?

    (i) Corbyn/Swinson etc

    (ii) BORIS
    I think the plan is to have a smiley face next to the word BORIS.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    AlastairMeeks said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's tempting to blame Cummings for this deceit.

    Is this another bus?

    IT ISN'T 54% IT'S ONLY 44%

    "Only" 44% - so still quite a lot then.......?
    If the questions were asked in the order given above by Mike, it looks like a classic of Yes Prime Minister polling.
    Looks like it!
    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/The-Telegraph_August-2019-Tables.pdf
    After voting intention questions the questions seem to go:

    - Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
    Parliament is more in tune than Boris with the British public

    - Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
    Parliament is out of touch with the British public

    - Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
    On Brexit, most MPs seem to ignore the wishes of voters and push their own agendas

    - Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
    The Queen should remain above politics and refuse to get involved in Brexit

    - Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
    Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs from stopping it

    Then questions on N. Ire, and more on Boris. So classic priming to get people to agree with "including suspending parliament if necessary".

    The Yougov survey quoted above which has Support proroguing parliament at 24% oppose 47% seems to be asked in a more neutral way:
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f3umz13qvw/InternalResults_190610_Brexit_W.pdf

    but it is from June.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    williamglenn said:

    Mysticrose said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
    Read what Richard Tyndall put. Impossible to disagree with him.

    In this day and age the laudable aim of frictionless borders between nations is baloney. Many European countries now recognise this and far more checks have come in. Places have turned their backs on Schengen.

    Schengen belongs to 1980's Metropolitan elitism. Lovely idea for lovely people in a lovely cuddly era. This is the age of terrorism and trafficking.
    Yep, definitely no terrorism in the 70s and 80s. What an innocent time it was...
    That's a non sequitur. Of course there was terrorism still in the 1980's but it was also a time of considerable optimism in western economies, which spilled over into fresh political ideas. One of which was Schengen. It began in June 1985.

    I don't think anyone sensible would seriously deny that the international movement of people and global terrorist threat have been at an unprecedented levels since c. 2000

    Schengen belongs to a different era. Fortunately, the ever-pragmatic EU have realised that and are casually making alterations or, in some cases, outright ignoring it. I think this is something British people regularly get wrong about the EU. It's not static or monolithic. It's always amending or, when it suits a country's interests, by-passing certain rules and regs. If something is 'dumb' to use Richard Tyndall's apt description, those who wish to ignore it may do so.

    Britain can happily remain a member of the EU without subscribing to Schengen.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I think this criticism is about right.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1161202296748945408
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    edited August 2019
    - "With the past vote filter down, I can't even see! How am I supposed to fight?!"
    - "Your opinion polls can deceive you - don't trust them!"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The ComRes questions:

    Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (Agree / Disagree / DK)

    - Parliament is more in tune than Boris with the British public (25 / 40 / 35)

    - Parliament is out of touch with the British public (77 / 11 / 12)

    - On Brexit, most MPs seem to ignore the wishes of voters and push their own agendas (78 / 9 / 12)

    - The Queen should remain above politics and refuse to get involved in Brexit (62 / 19 / 19)

    - Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs from stopping it (44 / 34 / 19)

    - Brexit should be halted if problems over the Northern Ireland border threaten to split the Union (36 / 37 / 25)

    - Boris Johnson has been a better Prime Minister so far than I expected he would be (38 / 33 / 29)

    - Boris Johnson cannot unify the country as Prime Minister of the UK (45 / 26 / 29)

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/The-Telegraph_August-2019-Tables.pdf
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
    Read what Richard Tyndall put. Impossible to disagree with him.

    In this day and age the laudable aim of frictionless borders between nations is baloney. Many European countries now recognise this and far more checks have come in. Places have turned their backs on Schengen.

    Schengen belongs to 1980's Metropolitan elitism. Lovely idea for lovely people in a lovely cuddly era. This is the age of terrorism and trafficking.

    It reminds me very much of this wonderful 30 second sketch featuring Rowan Atkinson:
    Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    Ach, it’s only the Micks.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    The furore over one opinion poll suggests a level of panic and denial about public opinion which is quite sad but entirely in line with the current state of British politics. No wonder the public take a dim view of all of it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chris said:

    Surprisingly, ComRes seems to be on first name terms with the prime minister, as well - "Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means ..."

    Surely that's an innovation?

    Lords Cooper and Ashcroft were on first name terms with David Cameron (pbuh).
    Tissue_Price said:

    I think this criticism is about right.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1161202296748945408

    It's one of those irregular verbs again.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1161203544948695040
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    I'm being picky and I totally knew what you meant but to be nerdily pedantic, a push poll is a poll that isn't really a poll at all, and the idea is to push the person being called. For example, "How would you vote if you heard that X was widely thought to be a pedophile?"

    I don't think there's a snappy name for this kind of poll, but it's a poll with slanted questions.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited August 2019
    Oh sorry, on the Ireland 'point' we have the Good Friday Agreement.

    The history of the troubles is so viscerally present that Ireland has to be treated with enormous sensitivity. The Good Friday Agreement is a critical part of the special situation in place. It's deeply disturbing that some on the far right appear ready to throw Ireland, and are even relishing the prospect, to the dogs. Appalling.

    But that's what I mean about the EU. It can handle pragmatic solutions. Given the stupidity of Britain's decision to Brexit, it came up with the backstop, something that protects Ireland.

    As has recently been pointed out, the recalcitrance is largely from the Brexiteers.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017
    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    Have you seen the Telegraph in the last 33 years?

    Good on you if you haven't. ;-)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    The centre is not holding, it’s true.

    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Mango said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    Have you seen the Telegraph in the last 33 years?

    Good on you if you haven't. ;-)
    I have fond memories of the Telegraph when it used to be a newspaper.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Gardenwalker said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    The centre is not holding, it’s true.

    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?
    Love that poem
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edmundintokyo said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    I'm being picky and I totally knew what you meant but to be nerdily pedantic, a push poll is a poll that isn't really a poll at all, and the idea is to push the person being called. For example, "How would you vote if you heard that X was widely thought to be a pedophile?"

    I don't think there's a snappy name for this kind of poll, but it's a poll with slanted questions.
    Yes you are right.
    It’s slanted. It’s a “crooked poll”.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Gardenwalker said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    The centre is not holding, it’s true.

    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?
    Boris, obviously.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The media seems to be becoming incapable of impartial reporting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    More fruit from Bozo's orchard of magic money trees:

    "Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said an additional £2.5 million will help pay for the installation of more than 1,000 new [EV] charging points on streets around the country"
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 499
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chelyabinsk said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1094352517306159106

    That poll had a majority for delay even if you included DKs.

    I wasn’t creating a majority where none existed, unlike ComRes/The Telegraph.

    Next.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/956980337791455232
    another_richard said:

    Oddly I don't recall people getting upset when don't knows were ignored from previous polls.

    :wink:

    Haven't we previously been told that people attack polls because they don't like the results ?

    :wink:

    Googling 'site:politicalbetting.com "don't knows" exclude' is eye-opening.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    AndyJS said:

    The media seems to be becoming incapable of impartial reporting.

    Pretty much.

    Social media has destroyed the economics and the structures of news-making and news-taking.

    Turns out that this was an vital pillar of democracy.

    Trump, Brexit, and this general turn to an authoritarian populism etc are impossible to conceive of without Facebook et al.

    I don’t know what the solution is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited August 2019
    Chelyabinsk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chelyabinsk said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1094352517306159106

    That poll had a majority for delay even if you included DKs.

    I wasn’t creating a majority where none existed, unlike ComRes/The Telegraph.

    Next.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/956980337791455232
    another_richard said:

    Oddly I don't recall people getting upset when don't knows were ignored from previous polls.

    :wink:

    Haven't we previously been told that people attack polls because they don't like the results ?

    :wink:

    Googling 'site:politicalbetting.com "don't knows" exclude' is eye-opening.

    You don’t understand polling or context do you.

    There’s a reason why the MRS/BPC are strict on pollsters reporting DKs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    As an aside, someone mentioned insidious YouTube algorithms last night.

    Despite the fact that I mainly use YouTube to watch old Dylan and Aretha clips etc, my recommendations constantly feature Jordan Peterson, Alex Jones and even darker stuff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mysticrose said:

    Oh sorry, on the Ireland 'point' we have the Good Friday Agreement.

    The history of the troubles is so viscerally present that Ireland has to be treated with enormous sensitivity. The Good Friday Agreement is a critical part of the special situation in place. It's deeply disturbing that some on the far right appear ready to throw Ireland, and are even relishing the prospect, to the dogs. Appalling.

    But that's what I mean about the EU. It can handle pragmatic solutions. Given the stupidity of Britain's decision to Brexit, it came up with the backstop, something that protects Ireland.

    As has recently been pointed out, the recalcitrance is largely from the Brexiteers.

    Of course we are recalcitrant. We want to cut cords with the EU so why would we want to remain bound to it?
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    This polling shenanigans wouldn't happen if we had an all female cabinet...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mysticrose said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    The centre is not holding, it’s true.

    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?
    Love that poem
    This one may be more apt for Brexit:

    https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/51294/waiting-for-the-barbarians
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    PeterMannion said:

    This polling shenanigans wouldn't happen if we had an all female cabinet...

    That all-female cabinet idea was frankly damaging to the Remainer cause.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Gardenwalker said:

    PeterMannion said:

    This polling shenanigans wouldn't happen if we had an all female cabinet...

    That all-female cabinet idea was frankly damaging to the Remainer cause.
    I know. Shamefully transphobic as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chris said:

    Surprisingly, ComRes seems to be on first name terms with the prime minister, as well - "Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means ..."

    Surely that's an innovation?

    Lords Cooper and Ashcroft were on first name terms with David Cameron (pbuh).
    (pigs - be utterly horrified)?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    Gardenwalker said:

    AndyJS said:

    The media seems to be becoming incapable of impartial reporting.

    Pretty much.

    Social media has destroyed the economics and the structures of news-making and news-taking.

    Turns out that this was an vital pillar of democracy.

    Trump, Brexit, and this general turn to an authoritarian populism etc are impossible to conceive of without Facebook et al.

    I don’t know what the solution is.
    I've said it before, and I'm only half-joking, that social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Hong Kong protests: All flights at airport cancelled for second consecutive day
    Numbers of protesters at the airport are building again, raising the prospect of another day of chaos."

    https://news.sky.com/story/hong-kong-protests-could-push-it-into-the-abyss-says-carrie-lam-11784210
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chris said:

    Surprisingly, ComRes seems to be on first name terms with the prime minister, as well - "Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means ..."

    Surely that's an innovation?

    Lords Cooper and Ashcroft were on first name terms with David Cameron (pbuh).
    (pigs - be utterly horrified)?
    Peace be upon him.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_be_upon_him
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Gardenwalker said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    The centre is not holding, it’s true.

    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?
    More rough beasts than you can shake a stick at.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    With the protests in Hong Kong, its worth remembering what happened in Tiananmen:

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre

    Also worth remembering that the Chinese authorities have not ruled out using force to recover Taiwan. They may use HK as a test case.

    If they use lethal force in HK I expect a lot of huffing and puffing in the rest of the world but no action.
    Why did we accept a leasehold? We should have demanded a freehold on Hong Kong.
    We were offered it at the time, but it was an extra £1,000 and we wanted a new sofa from DFS. Our conveyancer told us not to worry, 99 years is a long way away.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    AndyJS said:

    "Hong Kong protests: All flights at airport cancelled for second consecutive day
    Numbers of protesters at the airport are building again, raising the prospect of another day of chaos."

    https://news.sky.com/story/hong-kong-protests-could-push-it-into-the-abyss-says-carrie-lam-11784210

    The Hong Kongers are seemingly the last group of people left willing to stand up - potentially at great cost - for democracy.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Gardenwalker said:

    PeterMannion said:

    This polling shenanigans wouldn't happen if we had an all female cabinet...

    That all-female cabinet idea was frankly damaging to the Remainer cause.
    All went a bit tits up over the lack of ethnic quotas...to coin a phrase.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    Mysticrose said:

    williamglenn said:

    Mysticrose said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mysticrose said:


    I completely agree with you. Despite being a Remainer, Schengen is as you say 'dumb' and for the reasons you state. It's one of the EU's weakest links and a good example of political overreach.

    The UK and Ireland has had an arrangement which is Schengen in all but name. Do you find that the UK/Ireland border is also "dumb"?

    For the millions of people who live close to a Schengen land border the Agreement is the complete opposite of "dumb".
    Read what Richard Tyndall put. Impossible to disagree with him.

    In this day and age the laudable aim of frictionless borders between nations is baloney. Many European countries now recognise this and far more checks have come in. Places have turned their backs on Schengen.

    Schengen belongs to 1980's Metropolitan elitism. Lovely idea for lovely people in a lovely cuddly era. This is the age of terrorism and trafficking.
    Yep, definitely no terrorism in the 70s and 80s. What an innocent time it was...
    That's a non sequitur. Of course there was terrorism still in the 1980's but it was also a time of considerable optimism in western economies, which spilled over into fresh political ideas. One of which was Schengen. It began in June 1985.

    I don't think anyone sensible would seriously deny that the international movement of people and global terrorist threat have been at an unprecedented levels since c. 2000

    Schengen belongs to a different era. Fortunately, the ever-pragmatic EU have realised that and are casually making alterations or, in some cases, outright ignoring it. I think this is something British people regularly get wrong about the EU. It's not static or monolithic. It's always amending or, when it suits a country's interests, by-passing certain rules and regs. If something is 'dumb' to use Richard Tyndall's apt description, those who wish to ignore it may do so.

    Britain can happily remain a member of the EU without subscribing to Schengen.
    If you think Britain (wot, no NI?) can happily remain a member of the EU, you clearly haven't been paying attention.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Britain should offer citizenship to any Hong Konger born before 1997.

    That would be quite a profound declaration against repression and toward a “global Britain”.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Trouble with all this is even if you include the 'don't knows' a clear majority (44% vs 37%) are still in favour.

    I also don't recall this stream of invective about dodgy 'Peoples Vote' polls.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Gardenwalker said:

    As an aside, someone mentioned insidious YouTube algorithms last night.

    Despite the fact that I mainly use YouTube to watch old Dylan and Aretha clips etc, my recommendations constantly feature Jordan Peterson, Alex Jones and even darker stuff.

    YouTube constantly pushes 4G63 rebuild videos at me despite the fact that I don't own any cars with a 4G63 in them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    felix said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    PeterMannion said:

    This polling shenanigans wouldn't happen if we had an all female cabinet...

    That all-female cabinet idea was frankly damaging to the Remainer cause.
    All went a bit tits up over the lack of ethnic quotas...to coin a phrase.
    No the idea was demented at inception.

    Protecting the country from a No Deal Brexit is not an opportunity to make a symbolic stand for gender equality. Moreover, it just turns off (at least) 50% of the population.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gardenwalker said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Hong Kong protests: All flights at airport cancelled for second consecutive day
    Numbers of protesters at the airport are building again, raising the prospect of another day of chaos."

    https://news.sky.com/story/hong-kong-protests-could-push-it-into-the-abyss-says-carrie-lam-11784210

    The Hong Kongers are seemingly the last group of people left willing to stand up - potentially at great cost - for democracy.
    Them and leavers in this country ;)
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    More alarmist nonsense from an hysterical remain campaign. Just because Remain lost a vote does not mean "the West is lost".

    Do you have any idea what a grim view the general public takes about this sort of nonsense?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Oh sorry, on the Ireland 'point' we have the Good Friday Agreement.

    The history of the troubles is so viscerally present that Ireland has to be treated with enormous sensitivity. The Good Friday Agreement is a critical part of the special situation in place. It's deeply disturbing that some on the far right appear ready to throw Ireland, and are even relishing the prospect, to the dogs. Appalling.

    But that's what I mean about the EU. It can handle pragmatic solutions. Given the stupidity of Britain's decision to Brexit, it came up with the backstop, something that protects Ireland.

    As has recently been pointed out, the recalcitrance is largely from the Brexiteers.

    Of course we are recalcitrant. We want to cut cords with the EU so why would we want to remain bound to it?
    I think you need to find some better metaphors. Your current one is leading you astray.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    We had to suffer all this rubbish yesterday with Cyclefree's implication that "no deal" = Yugoslavia break up.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Hong Kong protests: All flights at airport cancelled for second consecutive day
    Numbers of protesters at the airport are building again, raising the prospect of another day of chaos."

    https://news.sky.com/story/hong-kong-protests-could-push-it-into-the-abyss-says-carrie-lam-11784210

    The Hong Kongers are seemingly the last group of people left willing to stand up - potentially at great cost - for democracy.
    Them and leavers in this country ;)
    Leavers are now, by and large, the proroguers.
    Leaverdom is (and in fact always has been) a populist project with a strong tendency toward authoritarianism.

    Civil liberty Brexiters, one which you claim to be, don’t realise (or perhaps don’t care) that you have harnessed yourself to one of Yeats’s “rough beasts”.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Gardenwalker said:

    Britain should offer citizenship to any Hong Konger born before 1997.

    That would be quite a profound declaration against repression and toward a “global Britain”.

    Why limit it in that way?

    I'd offer citizenship to anyone from HK (unless they have a serious criminal conviction or are otherwise undesirable). They seem a hard-working and enterprising people. Whether they would want to come to an island governed by people who think that suspending democracy is a good idea is another matter, of course.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    basicbridge said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    This look like a push poll.

    What’s alarming is that ComRes and the Telegraph are willing to distort and frame a story in the aid of an anti-democratic/authoritarian agenda.

    This is the new politics. The West is lost.
    More alarmist nonsense from an hysterical remain campaign. Just because Remain lost a vote does not mean "the West is lost".

    Do you have any idea what a grim view the general public takes about this sort of nonsense?
    Do you mean with or without Don't Knows?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1161214714174738432
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    basicbridge said:

    We had to suffer all this rubbish yesterday with Cyclefree's implication that "no deal" = Yugoslavia break up.

    What we had to suffer yesterday was you inventing what I wrote. Or perhaps a failure of comprehension on your part. Both rubbish and tiresome.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Gardenwalker said:

    Britain should offer citizenship to any Hong Konger born before 1997.

    That would be quite a profound declaration against repression and toward a “global Britain”.

    From Wikipedia: The Census and Statistics Department estimated Hong Kong's population at 7,482,500 in mid-2019. About half the population have some form of British nationality, a legacy of colonial rule; 3.4 million residents have British National (Overseas) status...

    British National (Overseas), abbreviated BN(O), is a class of British nationality that was granted by voluntary registration to British Dependent Territories citizens who were Hong Kong residents before the transfer of sovereignty to China on 1 July 1997. Nationals of this class are subject to immigration controls when entering the United Kingdom and do not have the automatic right of abode there or in Hong Kong.

    Despite petitions from Governors David Wilson and Chris Patten asking for full citizenship to be conferred on the colony's residents, Parliament ultimately refused to grant all Hongkongers right of abode in the United Kingdom, citing difficulty in absorbing a large number of new citizens and that doing so would contradict the Joint Declaration.Instead, it offered citizenship to only 50,000 qualified residents and their dependents".

    Strikes me as a bit early to be tearing up the Joint Declaration but ask me again in a few weeks.
This discussion has been closed.