Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
Ian Murray is in an SNP/Lab marginal and can't afford to lose any votes, so he's quite content to run that line, even though it's actually well within Labour's tactical interest to try to court the SNP for a potential coalition government in six months time.
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
We may No Deal by default.
Which would be classically English ruling classes.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
Every side is brilliant at saying what they wont do. The government, the EU, labour, etc etc etc
Yes. Actually I wasn't quite accurate in that previous post. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led Labour government, but I suppose that isn't necessarily the same thing as a Corbyn-led National Unity government. Maybe they'd consider supporting that.
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McDonnell's comments make no difference to the Union at all, however they may bring the end of Scottish Labour much closer given Ian Murray's comments tonight open the way to SLab civil war tonight and as Davidson and Swinson and Sturgeon feed off the carcass
"BBC Newsnight has learned that just 741 companies have applied for the grants...An estimated 240,000 UK businesses currently trade with the EU. Many of these would be expected to need training if the customs system changed."
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.
Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.
A significant portion of no-dealers (the classic rentier retiree) just don't care because they're typically on fixed incomes, own their home and are insulated from the financial shock. They can afford to delude themselves that everything will be fine, the sunlit uplands will come and we can all afford a little pain. Not them obviously but everyone else. There are quite a few retirees on the Costa del Sol who are shitting it, along with anyone living on a pension supplied by an investment portfolio but the Sussex gin brigade don't give a damn.
I think they are complacent if that is the case. Even the gin brigade need a functioning local hospital.
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
We may No Deal by default.
Which would be classically English ruling classes.
Perhaps the EU might extend the deadline so that if the result of the general election is a pro-EU government it could decide to remain after all? But they'd only announce it after the date of the general election had been confirmed.
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McD is presumably getting his pitch in early for a GNU led by Scottish Indie supporting Corbyn.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.
Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.
A significant portion of no-dealers (the classic rentier retiree) just don't care because they're typically on fixed incomes, own their home and are insulated from the financial shock. They can afford to delude themselves that everything will be fine, the sunlit uplands will come and we can all afford a little pain. Not them obviously but everyone else. There are quite a few retirees on the Costa del Sol who are shitting it, along with anyone living on a pension supplied by an investment portfolio but the Sussex gin brigade don't give a damn.
I think they are complacent if that is the case. Even the gin brigade need a functioning local hospital.
I imagine rather a lot of them have private healthcare. But yes, you're right, I've had discussions about this with leave-supporting elderly relatives in this position and their position could roughly be summed up as "I'm 90, I don't care". Thanks.
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
The take out from the comparison is people hurt and disadvantaged unnecessarily, due to stockpiling, greedily rushing out and over buying. Silly consumer behaviour could easily undo good contingency planning, and pain and ugliness be the result of that.
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
Which Lab MPs have said they won't support a GoNU / GoNAfaE?
(Not at all saying you're wrong, just interested in the detail)
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
It's kind of sad because I know quite a few Tories who are warm, caring people who I disagree with deeply but are always horrified by poverty and want to end it as best they can. The current Tory administration seems to be exclusively staffed with callous idiots who don't give the slightest about anyone of lower station than they are.
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after tge first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
Have we signed new ferry contracts yet? What practical preparation has been made?
That's an excellent question. I am a Director of a couple of UK companies. I was the CFO of a multinational based in the UK.
And the government has told us...
Bugger all.
Our accountants told us a great deal about the problems we'd face regarding taxes. But there has been bugger all communication from the government.
Right. So it sounds like most of the preparation the government has made has been in preparing to blame the EU for no deal. Well that will be really reassuring to all the poor buggers who lose their jobs I'm sure.
Jofra Archer: Ashes hopeful takes 6-27 and hits century for Sussex second XI
I have a feeling he might be playing in the 2nd test...
Along with bringing in Archer, I'd drop Ali for Leach, and probably give Buttler the gloves too. Dominic Sibley looks an interesting prospect, bring him in for the woefully out of form (In test format) Bairstow. Roy opening is an interesting proposition, if it works in a match we can get a long way ahead of the game. I'd give him more chances.
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
These are all on worst case scenarios and Leave won putting regaining sovereignty and controlling immigration ahead of economics anyway given the Remain campaign was nothing but economic gloom
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.
Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.
A significant portion of no-dealers (the classic rentier retiree) just don't care because they're typically on fixed incomes, own their home and are insulated from the financial shock. They can afford to delude themselves that everything will be fine, the sunlit uplands will come and we can all afford a little pain. Not them obviously but everyone else. There are quite a few retirees on the Costa del Sol who are shitting it, along with anyone living on a pension supplied by an investment portfolio but the Sussex gin brigade don't give a damn.
I think they are complacent if that is the case. Even the gin brigade need a functioning local hospital.
I imagine rather a lot of them have private healthcare. But yes, you're right, I've had discussions about this with leave-supporting elderly relatives in this position and their position could roughly be summed up as "I'm 90, I don't care". Thanks.
Miserable rancid racist pensioners as my mate's 20-something daughter raged the day after the result.
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
Ian Murray is in an SNP/Lab marginal and can't afford to lose any votes, so he's quite content to run that line, even though it's actually well within Labour's tactical interest to try to court the SNP for a potential coalition government in six months time.
Yes, the SNP is in 2nd place, but with a majority of 15,514, and the SNP needing a 16.3 point swing, I don’t think Edinburgh South fulfils most peoples definition of a marginal seat.
It is the only SLab- held seat that is not ultra-marginal.
But Murray is more vulnerable than he looks. This is the seat where I was brought up (during Malcolm Rifkind’s time), and I can assure you that he is only hanging on by mass Lib Dem and Con tactical voting.
Similar situation to Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.
Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.
A significant portion of no-dealers (the classic rentier retiree) just don't care because they're typically on fixed incomes, own their home and are insulated from the financial shock. They can afford to delude themselves that everything will be fine, the sunlit uplands will come and we can all afford a little pain. Not them obviously but everyone else. There are quite a few retirees on the Costa del Sol who are shitting it, along with anyone living on a pension supplied by an investment portfolio but the Sussex gin brigade don't give a damn.
I think they are complacent if that is the case. Even the gin brigade need a functioning local hospital.
I imagine rather a lot of them have private healthcare. But yes, you're right, I've had discussions about this with leave-supporting elderly relatives in this position and their position could roughly be summed up as "I'm 90, I don't care". Thanks.
Miserable rancid racist pensioners as my mate's 20-something daughter raged the day after the result.
No offence to your own relatives
I might privately agree. My mother banned my grandmother and I from discussing Brexit because of the argument over Christmas turkey in 2016.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
The Scottish nationalists always said it would be the English who broke the union not the Scots. I listen to the radio and no longer understand the English and their wish to throw away everything they have including the support of the Scottish.
Jofra Archer: Ashes hopeful takes 6-27 and hits century for Sussex second XI
I have a feeling he might be playing in the 2nd test...
Along with bringing in Archer, I'd drop Ali for Leach, and probably give Buttler the gloves too. Dominic Sibley looks an interesting prospect, bring him in for the woefully out of form (In test format) Bairstow. Roy opening is an interesting proposition, if it works in a match we can get a long way ahead of the game. I'd give him more chances.
Joe denly has to go. Not good enough nor one for the future. As an ozzie friend said to me the other day, what is it with you poms picking these bits and pieces players.
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
It's kind of sad because I know quite a few Tories who are warm, caring people who I disagree with deeply but are always horrified by poverty and want to end it as best they can. The current Tory administration seems to be exclusively staffed with callous idiots who don't give the slightest about anyone of lower station than they are.
It was mainly voters of 'lower station' who voted for Leave and are most likely to back No Deal
Is there nothing important enough to drag Corbyn away from his allotment?
Yes. Of Course. There is a small protest in Islington on behalf of the feelings of Iranian Revolutionary guards who have been upset by recent coverage of the Strait.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
The Scottish nationalists always said it would be the English who broke the union not the Scots. I listen to the radio and no longer understand the English and their wish to throw away everything they have including the support of the Scottish.
Not all English. Some of us have not lost our minds to the Brexit virus.
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McD is presumably getting his pitch in early for a GNU led by Scottish Indie supporting Corbyn.
Indeed, the disintergration of the UK seems to be of no importance to those in power or want to govern us. The Brexit supporting media are inciting hatred of MPs through their obsession with implementing Brexit no matter what the consequences.No wonder politicians are recieving unprecedented threats/abuse/hate mail...
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
It's kind of sad because I know quite a few Tories who are warm, caring people who I disagree with deeply but are always horrified by poverty and want to end it as best they can. The current Tory administration seems to be exclusively staffed with callous idiots who don't give the slightest about anyone of lower station than they are.
I think that’s unfair. They are equally as affected on an individual level.
I think the problem is that they look at the aggregate statistics and get caught up in the intellectual problem but forget the human tragedy that lies beneath.
On one level they are right - policy must be made objectively and dispassionately but without empathy it’s really not a good look
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.
Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.
A significant portion of no-dealers (the classic rentier retiree) just don't care because they're typically on fixed incomes, own their home and are insulated from the financial shock. They can afford to delude themselves that everything will be fine, the sunlit uplands will come and we can all afford a little pain. Not them obviously but everyone else. There are quite a few retirees on the Costa del Sol who are shitting it, along with anyone living on a pension supplied by an investment portfolio but the Sussex gin brigade don't give a damn.
I think they are complacent if that is the case. Even the gin brigade need a functioning local hospital.
I imagine rather a lot of them have private healthcare. But yes, you're right, I've had discussions about this with leave-supporting elderly relatives in this position and their position could roughly be summed up as "I'm 90, I don't care". Thanks.
Miserable rancid racist pensioners as my mate's 20-something daughter raged the day after the result.
No offence to your own relatives
I might privately agree. My mother banned my grandmother and I from discussing Brexit because of the argument over Christmas turkey in 2016.
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
The Scottish nationalists always said it would be the English who broke the union not the Scots. I listen to the radio and no longer understand the English and their wish to throw away everything they have including the support of the Scottish.
Only 46% of Scots back independence even on the Ashcroft poll once Don't Knows are included, that is only 1% more than the 45% Yes got in 2014. Brexit has not made that much difference to the Union other than making a few more Unionists shift to undecided
Ian Murray is in an SNP/Lab marginal and can't afford to lose any votes, so he's quite content to run that line, even though it's actually well within Labour's tactical interest to try to court the SNP for a potential coalition government in six months time.
Actually Murray has the safest seat by majority in Scotland. Fwiw his loathing of the Corbynite wing is I think genuine.
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
I would never ever say that 200,000 unemployed is “a price worth paying” or anything close
Ian Murray is in an SNP/Lab marginal and can't afford to lose any votes, so he's quite content to run that line, even though it's actually well within Labour's tactical interest to try to court the SNP for a potential coalition government in six months time.
Yes, the SNP is in 2nd place, but with a majority of 15,514, and the SNP needing a 16.3 point swing, I don’t think Edinburgh South fulfils most peoples definition of a marginal seat.
It is the only SLab- held seat that is not ultra-marginal.
But Murray is more vulnerable than he looks. This is the seat where I was brought up (during Malcolm Rifkind’s time), and I can assure you that he is only hanging on by mass Lib Dem and Con tactical voting.
Similar situation to Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire.
The SNP need a 16.3% swing to gain Edinburgh South but only a 5% swing to win East Dunbartonshire
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
The take out from the comparison is people hurt and disadvantaged unnecessarily, due to stockpiling, greedily rushing out and over buying. Silly consumer behaviour could easily undo good contingency planning, and pain and ugliness be the result of that.
You can anticipate public panic in such a scenario. Therefore so can the contingency planners. Perhaps they should plan for it?
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
Always was thus.
Asquith, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, May, Johnson et al: all have done far, far more to destroy the Union than the SNP ever managed.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
The Scottish nationalists always said it would be the English who broke the union not the Scots. I listen to the radio and no longer understand the English and their wish to throw away everything they have including the support of the Scottish.
Only 46% of Scots back independence even on the Ashcroft poll once Don't Knows are included, that is only 1% more than the 45% Yes got in 2014. Brexit has not made that much difference to the Union other than making a few more Unionists shift to undecided
Hardly anything more entertaining than an English Tory explaining Scotland to a Scottish Unionist.
Ian Murray is in an SNP/Lab marginal and can't afford to lose any votes, so he's quite content to run that line, even though it's actually well within Labour's tactical interest to try to court the SNP for a potential coalition government in six months time.
Actually Murray has the safest seat by majority in Scotland. Fwiw his loathing of the Corbynite wing is I think genuine.
I could be glib and say "for now" but yes, you're right. 2015 was a bit of a trauma for Scottish Labour supporters so I tend to remember things quite negatively.
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
Which Lab MPs have said they won't support a GoNU / GoNAfaE?
(Not at all saying you're wrong, just interested in the detail)
Rebecca Long-Bailey is one on tonight's Channel 4 News. I've read about others although I wouldn't be able to name them all.
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
These are all on worst case scenarios and Leave won putting regaining sovereignty and controlling immigration ahead of economics anyway given the Remain campaign was nothing but economic gloom
They are not worse case at all. I should think 200k job losses is at the optimistic end of things. Brexiteers seem to think all market rules are suspended when it comes to Brexit. The world does not owe the UK a living and it is illogical to pretend otherwise...
Indeed, the disintergration of the UK seems to be of no importance to those in power or want to govern us. The Brexit supporting media are inciting hatred of MPs through their obsession with implementing Brexit no matter what the consequences.No wonder politicians are recieving unprecedented threats/abuse/hate mail...
Yes, I'm amazed anyone would want to be an MP these days given the shit they have to go through (on all sides).
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after tge first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
Have we signed new ferry contracts yet? What practical preparation has been made?
That's an excellent question. I am a Director of a couple of UK companies. I was the CFO of a multinational based in the UK.
And the government has told us...
Bugger all.
Our accountants told us a great deal about the problems we'd face regarding taxes. But there has been bugger all communication from the government.
Unfair! You have been repeatedly and loudly told to be optimistic and seize the opportunities. Not their fault if you won't.
Is there nothing important enough to drag Corbyn away from his allotment?
The strategy is correct. Boris is currently free to get all the political benefits of telling leavers not only that he'll go No Deal, but also that it will be fine. If he isn't sure whether parliament will defuse the bomb he's waving, that reduces his freedom of movement: He needs to either march his guys back doen the hill or at least start preparing the voters for everything not to go swimmingly.
Remainers will again be miffed at Lab and drift to LD, but Lab can always u-turn at the last minute if they're worried about that and they'll mostly be forgiven. No need to give Boris a blank cheque at this point.
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate inculus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment ories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
I would never ever say that 200,000 unemployed is “a price worth paying” or anything close
That was the type of thing the Remain camp was warning about in the campaign, you ignored the advice and voted Leave anyway, fair enough if regaining sovereignty, ending free movement etc came first but don't pretend you did not know the risks (though I think much of this is still diehard Remainer scaremongering)
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
Which Lab MPs have said they won't support a GoNU / GoNAfaE?
(Not at all saying you're wrong, just interested in the detail)
Rebecca Long-Bailey is one on tonight's Channel 4 News. I've read about others although I wouldn't be able to name them all.
She was speaking on behalf of LOTO I think.
Meanwhile John McD was pursuing a completely different strategy.
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McDonnell's comments make no difference to the Union at all, however they may bring the end of Scottish Labour much closer given Ian Murray's comments tonight open the way to SLab civil war tonight and as Davidson and Swinson and Sturgeon feed off the carcass
Sturgeon, Rennie and Harvie will all benefit if SLab goes into full civil war mode, but hardly Davidson. She’s a dead duck.
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the s stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
These are all on worst case scenarios and Leave won putting regaining sovereignty and controlling immigration ahead of economics anyway given the Remain campaign was nothing but economic gloom
They are not worse case at all. I should think 200k job losses is at the optimistic end of things. Brexiteers seem to think all market rules are suspended when it comes to Brexit. The world does not owe the UK a living and it is illogical to pretend otherwise...
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
These are all on worst case scenarios and Leave won putting regaining sovereignty and controlling immigration ahead of economics anyway given the Remain campaign was nothing but economic gloom
They are not worse case at all. I should think 200k job losses is at the optimistic end of things. Brexiteers seem to think all market rules are suspended when it comes to Brexit. The world does not owe the UK a living and it is illogical to pretend otherwise...
Given that the UK has had a continuous trade deficit since 1998 it seems that most British people do think the world owes them a living.
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
The take out from the comparison is people hurt and disadvantaged unnecessarily, due to stockpiling, greedily rushing out and over buying. Silly consumer behaviour could easily undo good contingency planning, and pain and ugliness be the result of that.
You can anticipate public panic in such a scenario. Therefore so can the contingency planners. Perhaps they should plan for it?
No deal has gone down and it’s kicking off. There’s one watermelon left in the store and five people clinging to it, these are an old, old crippled grandfather, a mentally handicapped person in a wheelchair, an overweight woman on welfare with a sniffling, whimpering baby, a young, white doctor with blue eyes and perfect teeth and Taylor Swift. What does the contingency plan say?
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
It's kind of sad because I know quite a few Tories who are warm, caring people who I disagree with deeply but are always horrified by poverty and want to end it as best they can. The current Tory administration seems to be exclusively staffed with callous idiots who don't give the slightest about anyone of lower station than they are.
I think that’s unfair. They are equally as affected on an individual level.
I think the problem is that they look at the aggregate statistics and get caught up in the intellectual problem but forget the human tragedy that lies beneath.
On one level they are right - policy must be made objectively and dispassionately but without empathy it’s really not a good look
I think it's fair to say that people of significant personal means who dismiss the effect of policy on those with little with handwaving at least has the appearance of callous idiocy. And that given the intellectual vaccum that is about 50% of the cabinet, they probably are callous idiots.
Ken Clarke was always someone I respected for having that genuine empathy. He once said at a seminar in answer to a question I posed that he deeply regretted failing to spread the gains of the 80s across the whole population, not just a lucky few. There are a few other Conservative politicians who have that empathy but they seem to have been ejected from the ruling faction.
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savio reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
HYUFD = Diehard Remainer!
No. I believe the Leave victory has to be respected based on the campaign it fought ie to regain sovereignty and end free movement, Remain fought the campaign on the potential negative economic consequences of Brexit, most voters voted Leave regardless so the winning Leave platform must be delivered
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the s stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
These are all on worst case scenarios and Leave won putting regaining sovereignty and controlling immigration ahead of economics anyway given the Remain campaign was nothing but economic gloom
They are not worse case at all. I should think 200k job losses is at the optimistic end of things. Brexiteers seem to think all market rules are suspended when it comes to Brexit. The world does not owe the UK a living and it is illogical to pretend otherwise...
56% of UK exports now go outside the EU
Did you add EFTA countries? And countries like Canada where we drop out of EU FTAs?
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McDonnell's comments make no difference to the Union at all, however they may bring the end of Scottish Labour much closer given Ian Murray's comments tonight open the way to SLab civil war tonight and as Davidson and Swinson and Sturgeon feed off the carcass
Sturgeon, Rennie and Harvie will all benefit if SLab goes into full civil war mode, but hardly Davidson. She’s a dead duck.
Far from it, Davidson has a higher approval rating than Rennie and Leonard in the Ashcroft poll amongst Scots
Jofra Archer: Ashes hopeful takes 6-27 and hits century for Sussex second XI
I have a feeling he might be playing in the 2nd test...
Along with bringing in Archer, I'd drop Ali for Leach, and probably give Buttler the gloves too. Dominic Sibley looks an interesting prospect, bring him in for the woefully out of form (In test format) Bairstow. Roy opening is an interesting proposition, if it works in a match we can get a long way ahead of the game. I'd give him more chances.
Joe denly has to go. Not good enough nor one for the future. As an ozzie friend said to me the other day, what is it with you poms picking these bits and pieces players.
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
The take out from the comparison is people hurt and disadvantaged unnecessarily, due to stockpiling, greedily rushing out and over buying. Silly consumer behaviour could easily undo good contingency planning, and pain and ugliness be the result of that.
You can anticipate public panic in such a scenario. Therefore so can the contingency planners. Perhaps they should plan for it?
No deal has gone down and it’s kicking off. There’s one watermelon left in the store and five people clinging to it, these are an old, old crippled grandfather, a mentally handicapped person in a wheelchair, an overweight woman on welfare with a sniffling, whimpering baby, a young, white doctor with blue eyes and perfect teeth and Taylor Swift. What does the contingency plan say?
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Well Archer just scored a century...(OK it was a 2nd XI game)
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
It's kind of sad because I know quite a few Tories who are warm, caring people who I disagree with deeply but are always horrified by poverty and want to end it as best they can. The current Tory administration seems to be exclusively staffed with callous idiots who don't give the slightest about anyone of lower station than they are.
I think that’s unfair. They are equally as affected on an individual level.
I think the problem is that they look at the aggregate statistics and get caught up in the intellectual problem but forget the human tragedy that lies beneath.
On one level they are right - policy must be made objectively and dispassionately but without empathy it’s really not a good look
I think it's fair to say that people of significant personal means who dismiss the effect of policy on those with little with handwaving at least has the appearance of callous idiocy. And that given the intellectual vaccum that is about 50% of the cabinet, they probably are callous idiots.
Ken Clarke was always someone I respected for having that genuine empathy. He once said at a seminar in answer to a question I posed that he deeply regretted failing to spread the gains of the 80s across the whole population, not just a lucky few. There are a few other Conservative politicians who have that empathy but they seem to have been ejected from the ruling faction.
Maybe partly because he comes from an entirely different background to the monied elite running the country now.
Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.
If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.
If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
The take out from the comparison is people hurt and disadvantaged unnecessarily, due to stockpiling, greedily rushing out and over buying. Silly consumer behaviour could easily undo good contingency planning, and pain and ugliness be the result of that.
You can anticipate public panic in such a scenario. Therefore so can the contingency planners. Perhaps they should plan for it?
No deal has gone down and it’s kicking off. There’s one watermelon left in the store and five people clinging to it, these are an old, old crippled grandfather, a mentally handicapped person in a wheelchair, an overweight woman on welfare with a sniffling, whimpering baby, a young, white doctor with blue eyes and perfect teeth and Taylor Swift. What does the contingency plan say?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it'sat.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
What about the families the new 200,000 people with no job support? You clearly have never suffered hardship the way you casually suggest it does not matter...
These are all on worst case was nothing but economic gloom
They are not worse case at all. I should think 200k job losses is at the optimistic end of things. Brexiteers seem to think all market rules are suspended when it comes to Brexit. The world does not owe the UK a living and it is illogical to pretend otherwise...
56% of UK exports now go outside the EU
Did you add EFTA countries? And countries like Canada where we drop out of EU FTAs?
Again, you voted for Leave not me.
It is quite pathetic it is left to Remainers who respect democracy like me to deliver the platform you voted for because you and Charles cannot face the consequences of your Leave vote
Jofra Archer: Ashes hopeful takes 6-27 and hits century for Sussex second XI
I have a feeling he might be playing in the 2nd test...
Along with bringing in Archer, I'd drop Ali for Leach, and probably give Buttler the gloves too. Dominic Sibley looks an interesting prospect, bring him in for the woefully out of form (In test format) Bairstow. Roy opening is an interesting proposition, if it works in a match we can get a long way ahead of the game. I'd give him more chances.
Joe denly has to go. Not good enough nor one for the future. As an ozzie friend said to me the other day, what is it with you poms picking these bits and pieces players.
It isn't entirely clear that Archer is 100% fit for a five day Test Match and after the Anderson fiasco the Selectors may be reluctant to take any more chances. I'm not sure Woakes is fully fit either, so the same considerations apply to him. As it happens there are plenty of decent quick bowlers around at the moment so the Selectors do have options if there are any fitness doubts about the obvious choices. As Lords is a 'result' wicket and tends to help classic Englisg swing bowling they do not have to go for a maximum pace attack and can probably afford to rest Archer and/or Woakes if they wish to be cautious. As ever though, their thinking is likely to remain opaque before, during and after the match.
I wouldn't have picked Denley for the first Test, nor moved Root to three, but you have to give the experiment another go now. You can't just drop it after one losing game, especially as it was far from the biggest problem.
The Roy experiment is worth another shot if only because of the lack of decent alternatives.
Ali and Bairstow both have to go because of loss of form. Why not bring back Foakes? He's a much better wicketkeeper and a strong batsmen who has shown he has the technique and temperament for Test Cricket..
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
Always was thus.
Asquith, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, May, Johnson et al: all have done far, far more to destroy the Union than the SNP ever managed.
Given that the Union still exists doesn't that make the SNP completely crap ?
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Well Archer just scored a century...(OK it was a 2nd XI game)
Perhaps take Bairstow out and replace him with Mark Wood, running a 5 seamer, 1 spinner attack. OK It looks weird but if the batsmen aren't going to get runs might as well bowl through the Ozzies and just let the bowlers get all the runs !
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Well Archer just scored a century...(OK it was a 2nd XI game)
Perhaps take Bairstow out and replace him with Mark Wood, running a 5 seamer, 1 spinner attack. OK It looks weird but if the batsmen aren't going to get runs might as well bowl through the Ozzies and just let the bowlers get all the runs !
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Well Archer just scored a century...(OK it was a 2nd XI game)
Perhaps take Bairstow out and replace him with Mark Wood, running a 5 seamer, 1 spinner attack. OK It looks weird but if the batsmen aren't going to get runs might as well bowl through the Ozzies and just let the bowlers get all the runs !
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
The Scottish nationalists always said it would be the English who broke the union not the Scots. I listen to the radio and no longer understand the English and their wish to throw away everything they have including the support of the Scottish.
Only 46% of Scots back independence even on the Ashcroft poll once Don't Knows are included, that is only 1% more than the 45% Yes got in 2014. Brexit has not made that much difference to the Union other than making a few more Unionists shift to undecided
We haven’t had brexit yet though just talk. An Indy ref post brexit, timed at the very worst of the chaos, passing due to a perfect storm, but still the Conservative party responsible. For ever.
Any one else thinking beyond McD’s comments to something so easily out the other side his mouth? ‘Of course to be fair, if the Scots are having one the Irish should too.’
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
Always was thus.
Asquith, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, May, Johnson et al: all have done far, far more to destroy the Union than the SNP ever managed.
Given that the Union still exists doesn't that make the SNP completely crap ?
Well, as our current PM found out, crap and patient sometimes works out when your opponents are idiots.
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Well Archer just scored a century...(OK it was a 2nd XI game)
Perhaps take Bairstow out and replace him with Mark Wood, running a 5 seamer, 1 spinner attack. OK It looks weird but if the batsmen aren't going to get runs might as well bowl through the Ozzies and just let the bowlers get all the runs !
Who do we replace him with ? Our batting cupboard is looking threadbare right now - Woakes and Stokes are probably as likely to make runs as any of the top lot save Root and Burns !
Well Archer just scored a century...(OK it was a 2nd XI game)
Perhaps take Bairstow out and replace him with Mark Wood, running a 5 seamer, 1 spinner attack. OK It looks weird but if the batsmen aren't going to get runs might as well bowl through the Ozzies and just let the bowlers get all the runs !
Jofra Archer: Ashes hopeful takes 6-27 and hits century for Sussex second XI
I have a feeling he might be playing in the 2nd test...
Along with bringing in Archer, I'd drop Ali for Leach, and probably give Buttler the gloves too. Dominic Sibley looks an interesting prospect, bring him in for the woefully out of form (In test format) Bairstow. Roy opening is an interesting proposition, if it works in a match we can get a long way ahead of the game. I'd give him more chances.
Joe denly has to go. Not good enough nor one for the future. As an ozzie friend said to me the other day, what is it with you poms picking these bits and pieces players.
It isn't entirely clear that Archer is 100% fit for a five day Test Match and after the Anderson fiasco the Selectors may be reluctant to take any more chances. I'm not sure Woakes is fully fit either, so the same considerations apply to him. As it happens there are plenty of decent quick bowlers around at the moment so the Selectors do have options if there are any fitness doubts about the obvious choices. As Lords is a 'result' wicket and tends to help classic Englisg swing bowling they do not have to go for a maximum pace attack and can probably afford to rest Archer and/or Woakes if they wish to be cautious. As ever though, their thinking is likely to remain opaque before, during and after the match.
I wouldn't have picked Denley for the first Test, nor moved Root to three, but you have to give the experiment another go now. You can't just drop it after one losing game, especially as it was far from the biggest problem.
The Roy experiment is worth another shot if only because of the lack of decent alternatives.
Ali and Bairstow both have to go because of loss of form. Why not bring back Foakes? He's a much better wicketkeeper and a strong batsmen who has shown he has the technique and temperament for Test Cricket..
Jos Buttler averages 33 in first class cricket, in which he has scored one century in the last five years.
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McDonnell's comments make no difference to the Union at all, however they may bring the end of Scottish Labour much closer given Ian Murray's comments tonight open the way to SLab civil war tonight and as Davidson and Swinson and Sturgeon feed off the carcass
Sturgeon, Rennie and Harvie will all benefit if SLab goes into full civil war mode, but hardly Davidson. She’s a dead duck.
Far from it, Davidson has a higher approval rating than Rennie and Leonard in the Ashcroft poll amongst Scots
How’s that going to help her pick up SLab supporters? Generally speaking SLabbers despise the Tories. All the more right now. Even Tories despise Tories.
I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
We may No Deal by default.
Which would be classically English ruling classes.
“Many historians, with an ‘if only’ approach to the British defeat, have focused so much on different aspects of No Deal Brexit which went wrong that they have tended to overlook the central element. It was quite simply a very bad plan right from the start and right from the top. Every other problem stemmed from that.” ― Antony Beevor, "A Brexit too far: 2019"
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Theren vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
I would never ever say that 200,000 unemployed is “a price worth paying” or anything close
What's your number then Charles?
What's the cut off point for worth it/not worth it?
Is there nothing important enough to drag Corbyn away from his allotment?
The strategy is correct. Boris is currently free to get all the political benefits of telling leavers not only that he'll go No Deal, but also that it will be fine. If he isn't sure whether parliament will defuse the bomb he's waving, that reduces his freedom of movement: He needs to either march his guys back doen the hill or at least start preparing the voters for everything not to go swimmingly.
Remainers will again be miffed at Lab and drift to LD, but Lab can always u-turn at the last minute if they're worried about that and they'll mostly be forgiven. No need to give Boris a blank cheque at this point.
I'm not sure what her strategy is? The most important thing is making sure that as close to Haloween as possible Gove and Johnson are as far away from government as possible never to be heard from again. I didn't hear anything from Long Bailey that suggested her boss had a plan that might achieve that.
Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.
If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.
Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
Theren vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?
The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.
With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
Even if unemployment spiked by 200 000 that would be barely a fifth of the 1.2 million it rose by in 2008, a rise in savings may also be no bad thing.
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
And this is why political opponents find it easy to portray Tories as callous
You voted for Leave not me, you won it putting sovereignty ahead of economics, you own it
I would never ever say that 200,000 unemployed is “a price worth paying” or anything close
What's your number then Charles?
What's the cut off point for worth it/not worth it?
Blue passports have got to be worth 100,000 plus the car industry.
Rebecca Long-Bailey is one on tonight's Channel 4 News. I've read about others although I wouldn't be able to name them all.
OK, I just listened to that clip and I don't think she rules out the GoNAfaE. She rules out a GoNU that *delivers Brexit* then lets Boris back in, and she says she wants a general election. When she's pressed on the temporary GoNAfaE she talks about how other people might stop it.
What you need to watch isn't the leadership, they'll leave their options open, it's grumpy Labour Leave backbenchers. Plausibly you can't do it with Corbyn because you lose Tory rebels and/or LibDems, and you can't do it with a grandee figure because you lose too many Labour backbenchers.
It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.
The irony that the Conservative and Unionist Party have destroyed the Union more effectively than any effort of the Scottish National Party.
Always was thus.
Asquith, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, May, Johnson et al: all have done far, far more to destroy the Union than the SNP ever managed.
Given that the Union still exists doesn't that make the SNP completely crap ?
Well, as our current PM found out, crap and patient sometimes works out when your opponents are idiots.
Indeed. The SNP has many weaknesses, but patience and stamina are not among them. We watch agog as time after time the Unionists goof up.
Rebecca Long-Bailey is one on tonight's Channel 4 News. I've read about others although I wouldn't be able to name them all.
OK, I just listened to that clip and I don't think she rules out the GoNAfaE. She rules out a GoNU that *delivers Brexit* then lets Boris back in, and she says she wants a general election. When she's pressed on the temporary GoNAfaE she talks about how other people might stop it.
What you need to watch isn't the leadership, they'll leave their options open, it's grumpy Labour Leave backbenchers. Plausibly you can't do it with Corbyn because you lose Tory rebels and/or LibDems, and you can't do it with a grandee figure because you lose too many Labour backbenchers.
Sam Northeast 2019 avg 62 Career avg 39 Dominic Sibley 2019 avg 62 Career avg 39 Ravi Bopara 2019 avg 58 Career avg 40 Gary Ballance 2019 avg 56 Career avg 48
We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....
McDonnell's comments make no difference to the Union at all, however they may bring the end of Scottish Labour much closer given Ian Murray's comments tonight open the way to SLab civil war tonight and as Davidson and Swinson and Sturgeon feed off the carcass
Sturgeon, Rennie and Harvie will all benefit if SLab goes into full civil war mode, but hardly Davidson. She’s a dead duck.
Far from it, Davidson has a higher approval rating than Rennie and Leonard in the Ashcroft poll amongst Scots
How’s that going to help her pick up SLab supporters? Generally speaking SLabbers despise the Tories. All the more right now. Even Tories despise Tories.
More may go LD but most SLab voters are still Unionists (60% with Ashcroft) and some of them would vote Tory over SNP
Comments
So all the scare stories not producing Armageddon will only benefit the Tories and Leavers even more
Having debated GONU extensively on here today, ruling it out is the logical and sensible conclusion to come to?
Which would be classically English ruling classes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49255061
"BBC Newsnight has learned that just 741 companies have applied for the grants...An estimated 240,000 UK businesses currently trade with the EU. Many of these would be expected to need training if the customs system changed."
(Not at all saying you're wrong, just interested in the detail)
Is there nothing important enough to drag Corbyn away from his allotment?
Roy opening is an interesting proposition, if it works in a match we can get a long way ahead of the game. I'd give him more chances.
No offence to your own relatives
It is the only SLab- held seat that is not ultra-marginal.
But Murray is more vulnerable than he looks. This is the seat where I was brought up (during Malcolm Rifkind’s time), and I can assure you that he is only hanging on by mass Lib Dem and Con tactical voting.
Similar situation to Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire.
Every cloud etc.
I think the problem is that they look at the aggregate statistics and get caught up in the intellectual problem but forget the human tragedy that lies beneath.
On one level they are right - policy must be made objectively and dispassionately but without empathy it’s really not a good look
Fwiw his loathing of the Corbynite wing is I think genuine.
Asquith, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, May, Johnson et al: all have done far, far more to destroy the Union than the SNP ever managed.
Presumably nobody bothered to brief RLB about this as she waffled her way thru a CH4 interview saying there would be no GNU.
"MPs describe threats, abuse and safety fears"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49247808
Remainers will again be miffed at Lab and drift to LD, but Lab can always u-turn at the last minute if they're worried about that and they'll mostly be forgiven. No need to give Boris a blank cheque at this point.
Meanwhile John McD was pursuing a completely different strategy.
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What does the contingency plan say?
Ken Clarke was always someone I respected for having that genuine empathy. He once said at a seminar in answer to a question I posed that he deeply regretted failing to spread the gains of the 80s across the whole population, not just a lucky few. There are a few other Conservative politicians who have that empathy but they seem to have been ejected from the ruling faction.
Cue debate about grammar schools.
It is quite pathetic it is left to Remainers who respect democracy like me to deliver the platform you voted for because you and Charles cannot face the consequences of your Leave vote
I wouldn't have picked Denley for the first Test, nor moved Root to three, but you have to give the experiment another go now. You can't just drop it after one losing game, especially as it was far from the biggest problem.
The Roy experiment is worth another shot if only because of the lack of decent alternatives.
Ali and Bairstow both have to go because of loss of form. Why not bring back Foakes? He's a much better wicketkeeper and a strong batsmen who has shown he has the technique and temperament for Test Cricket..
Any one else thinking beyond McD’s comments to something so easily out the other side his mouth? ‘Of course to be fair, if the Scots are having one the Irish should too.’
― Antony Beevor, "A Brexit too far: 2019"
What's the cut off point for worth it/not worth it?
What you need to watch isn't the leadership, they'll leave their options open, it's grumpy Labour Leave backbenchers. Plausibly you can't do it with Corbyn because you lose Tory rebels and/or LibDems, and you can't do it with a grandee figure because you lose too many Labour backbenchers.
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1158688963407859712?s=20
Sam Northeast 2019 avg 62 Career avg 39
Dominic Sibley 2019 avg 62 Career avg 39
Ravi Bopara 2019 avg 58 Career avg 40
Gary Ballance 2019 avg 56 Career avg 48