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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening

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  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Yet as the same article points out only 46% actually back Yes including Don't Knows and Westminster will block any indyref2 before 2021 where the SNP will need a majority for one.
    Can Sturgeon call snap elections for Holyrood? Just wondering if we might see a snap election called after a no-deal brexit to get that majority early and capitalise on the cobble-throwing sentiment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    OnboardG1 said:

    DavidL said:

    OK, I've not been giving this 100% of my attention, but this is the first time I've seen the name Andrew Yang.

    My son told me about him. He advocates a guaranteed income for every adult. Claims it would boost growth, increase consumption, reduce inequality and give everyone a better sex life (I may have got that last bit wrong, something to do with reducing mental ill health and stress).

    My son has run the numbers in some detail in the UK for an essay competition. It is a nice idea but they don't come close to adding up.
    Didn't they try it in Finland?

    A better approach surely is to set the minimum wage at a level that ensures people can afford to live without recourse to Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Council Tax support etc. etc.
    The general idea is that it enables people the option to not work and still survive. Not necessarily prosper but survive. That gives them leverage over employers who pay starvation wages and use the threat of dismissal to justify awful working conditions. I'm not convinced it neccessarily adds up either but it probably isn't totally unfeasible if you replace pensions with it as well and ditch the personal tax allowance.
    At £9K it would cost £474bn. Even adding all of the State pensions, current spending on welfare (other than kids and disabled), a bit for the alleged extra growth and a bit more VAT there is a gaping hole that just can't be filled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    There is no way to stop it; the union is done.
    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    On Scotland (and NI, and Wales), independence is inevitable unless those leading the Union actually make it stand for something, a national aspiration or project which people can believe in.

    Brexit is not it. Brexit divides. Brexit destroys.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019
    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs and trying to find ways we can tackle this new industrial revolution. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    On topic: I believe Iowa will be allowing virtual vote casting for caucuses for first time this season.

    Could change things? Younger voters?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Off topic, North Carolina’s elusive emu is still on the run and still unclaimed after more than a month...

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/01/us/emu-north-carolina-trnd/index.html
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Climate change is the number 1 issue.

    Automation and AI is number 2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    On Scotland (and NI, and Wales), independence is inevitable unless those leading the Union actually make it stand for something, a national aspiration or project which people can believe in.

    Brexit is not it. Brexit divides. Brexit destroys.

    It is not inevitable except in the eyes of leftwingers who have never much cared for it anyway despite the fact that the biggest beneficiaries of ending the Union in England would be the Tories
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited August 2019
    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Yet as the same article points out only 46% actually back Yes including Don't Knows and Westminster will block any indyref2 before 2021 where the SNP will need a majority for one.
    Can Sturgeon call snap elections for Holyrood? Just wondering if we might see a snap election called after a no-deal brexit to get that majority early and capitalise on the cobble-throwing sentiment.
    I think a two thirds majority in the Scottish Parliament is needed for it to dissolve itself and bring about an “extraordinary” general election.

    Edit - yes, s.3 of the Scotland Act 1999
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Yet as the same article points out only 46% actually back Yes including Don't Knows and Westminster will block any indyref2 before 2021 where the SNP will need a majority for one.
    Can Sturgeon call snap elections for Holyrood? Just wondering if we might see a snap election called after a no-deal brexit to get that majority early and capitalise on the cobble-throwing sentiment.
    No, Holyrood is fixed term unless 2/3 of MSPs decide otherwise and Sturgeon is well short of that majority
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs and trying to find ways we can tackle this new industrial revolution. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Yes, that was the context my son was looking at. It doesn't work now but if automation and AI reduce the demand for labour by 50% it starts to make a kind of sense. Our current welfare system would not be fit for purpose.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Yet one PM promoted him to Brexit Secretary. Probably the key post in government at the time. He walked. Good riddance one would have thought, given his lack of performance there.
    But no. He is back. As Foreign Secretary. He surely MUST have talents he reveals only when away from the public gaze?
    Surely?
    He was once considered a liberty-loving great white hope; worked with Liberty and I think Amnesty International; wrote a half decent book on liberty too.

    He’s not stupid, however he seems to be mad.
    He is less than he seems. He left Linklaters as soon as he qualified which means he did not make the cut. He had a secondment while training at Liberty (Shami's outfit). Not sure that is much of a recommendation, frankly.

    There are lots of lawyers around with good academic qualifications who are devoid of any sense and whom you would not trust to feed your cat. With quite a few you wonder how they manage to get out of the house and into work by themselves.

    He worked a the FO for a while though it is hard to get a sense of what he actually achieved there. He then worked for David Davis for a long while. Possibly that was where, despite not being stupid, at least academically, he lost all common-sense and judgment.

    I think his main talents are to believe in Brexit, be under 65 and look like someone who models jumpers for knitting patterns.

    I doubt there is much else. Sometimes someone who says stupid things and does stupid things is stupid. Not hiding some great intelligence.



  • The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Climate change is the number 1 issue.

    Automation and AI is number 2.
    Personally i think it is the oither way around, partly because automation / AI / ML will assist with it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1158802889143476224

    We did have one of PB Brexit-backers saying on here the other day that the backstop would make the UK less free than Ireland ever was under British rule.

    The backstop is worse than the potato famines or the Croke Park massacre?

    Well it is a view.

    I don't think the Brexiters have ever really managed to get their heads around Ireland. It does not properly compute.

    A century ago Ireland took back control from a foreign power that set their laws etc would be something Brexiteers would like and know about.
    One does not vote in the elections of a foreign power. Ergo the EU is not a foreign power.
    I thought Ireland sent MPs to Westminster.
    Indeed, for the entire time that the UK existed it always did. No exceptions.
    You could consider the situation 1702-1707 (when Ireland, England and Scotland shared a monarch) and 1707-1801 (when Great Britain and Ireland shared a monarch).

    If you go back far enough in history you have to stop considering countries and start considering monarchs instead. Slapping a Westphalian state structure on, say, the twelvth century, is a classification error.
    Do you mean 1603-1707?
    I didn't, but a quick Google tells me that perhaps I should have. I went with Queen Anne because she liked gambling and I'm vaguely familiar with her reign (tho I haven't seen the film)
    Emma Stone’s character was an ancestor...
    On any other site that might seem strange... :)
    Watch it - a very enjoyable and somewhat salacious movie. Historically completely inaccurate

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abigail_Masham,_Baroness_Masham


    Wikipedia credits Abigail’s success on her “gentle and genial nature”. The film gives a very different perspective (it’s actually based on a novel not history and, for some reason, Hollywood likes to cast my ancestors as villains in most films...)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Yet as the same article points out only 46% actually back Yes including Don't Knows and Westminster will block any indyref2 before 2021 where the SNP will need a majority for one.
    Can Sturgeon call snap elections for Holyrood? Just wondering if we might see a snap election called after a no-deal brexit to get that majority early and capitalise on the cobble-throwing sentiment.
    No, Holyrood is fixed term
    She can if she can cobble together 2/3 of the Parliament to support her.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Climate change is the number 1 issue.

    Automation and AI is number 2.
    Surely not where you live. Hasn't it been raining there since 2016?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    There is no way to stop it; the union is done.
    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all
    Which is, of course, the most important thing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    And remember this is after he got training on his presentation skills. By some rather dodgy individual part of a pro-Putin group (the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society) which hangs out at the Cavalry & Guards Club.

    God knows what he would be like without such training.
    I hope he wasn't paying for it. Blimey.
    Hmm - do we want our FS to be in debt to someone with links to Putin?

    Let me get back to you on that one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    OK, I've not been giving this 100% of my attention, but this is the first time I've seen the name Andrew Yang.

    My son told me about him. He advocates a guaranteed income for every adult. Claims it would boost growth, increase consumption, reduce inequality and give everyone a better sex life (I may have got that last bit wrong, something to do with reducing mental ill health and stress).

    My son has run the numbers in some detail in the UK for an essay competition. It is a nice idea but they don't come close to adding up.
    Didn't they try it in Finland?

    A better approach surely is to set the minimum wage at a level that ensures people can afford to live without recourse to Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Council Tax support etc. etc.
    Its actually quite complicated because even although a guaranteed income removes a large chunk of the benefit system you have to retain a bit for those who need extra such as those with young kids, disabilities etc. I also have serious reservations about whether increasing consumption (which it undoubtedly would do) is really what either the US or the UK require right now. We need to boost savings and reduce our trade deficit.
    Finland tried a small experiment of 2,000 people. The trial has ended.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47169549
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    On Scotland (and NI, and Wales), independence is inevitable unless those leading the Union actually make it stand for something, a national aspiration or project which people can believe in.

    Brexit is not it. Brexit divides. Brexit destroys.

    It is not inevitable except in the eyes of leftwingers who have never much cared for it anyway despite the fact that the biggest beneficiaries of ending the Union in England would be the Tories
    Do you really think, given the state of the country right now, that you deserve to govern it any more?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs and trying to find ways we can tackle this new industrial revolution. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Yes. You may criticise him for many things, but not being policy light. 100 policies. Most primary candidates content themselves with looking good in a suit.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1158802889143476224

    We did have one of PB Brexit-backers saying on here the other day that the backstop would make the UK less free than Ireland ever was under British rule.

    That would have been @Philip_Thompson of this parish
    Yep, though I said under UK rule [ie not Cromwell's time]. Ireland under UK rule got MPs, the UK under EU Backstop rule won't get MEPs. QED.
    Is the EU going to export food from us while our people starve to death or terrorise our population with terroristic paramilitary hit squads, Philip? Will we have to surrender our armed forces?
    No, but because a small fraction of a fraction of our legislation (solely that which pertains to Single Market issues, focusing primarily on common standards, measurement, and sampling; nothing to do with criminal law or common law or constitutional law or the franchise or pretty much anything we think of when we discuss legislation being made) will be possibly temporarily imposed on a small area of the country in order to assist the fuzziness of the border until we can come up with an alternative, it's WORSE THAN THAT!

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    DavidL said:

    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Climate change is the number 1 issue.
    Automation and AI is number 2.
    Surely not where you live. Hasn't it been raining there since 2016?
    No. But you and your ilk will piss on our legs and tell us it’s raining.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1158802889143476224

    We did have one of PB Brexit-backers saying on here the other day that the backstop would make the UK less free than Ireland ever was under British rule.

    The backstop is worse than the potato famines or the Croke Park massacre?

    Well it is a view.

    I don't think the Brexiters have ever really managed to get their heads around Ireland. It does not properly compute.

    A century ago Ireland took back control from a foreign power that set their laws etc would be something Brexiteers would like and know about.
    One does not vote in the elections of a foreign power. Ergo the EU is not a foreign power.
    I thought Ireland sent MPs to Westminster.
    Indeed, for the entire time that the UK existed it always did. No exceptions.
    You could consider the situation 1702-1707 (when Ireland, England and Scotland shared a monarch) and 1707-1801 (when Great Britain and Ireland shared a monarch).

    If you go back far enough in history you have to stop considering countries and start considering monarchs instead. Slapping a Westphalian state structure on, say, the twelvth century, is a classification error.
    Do you mean 1603-1707?
    I didn't, but a quick Google tells me that perhaps I should have. I went with Queen Anne because she liked gambling and I'm vaguely familiar with her reign (tho I haven't seen the film)
    Emma Stone’s character was an ancestor...
    On any other site that might seem strange... :)
    Watch it - a very enjoyable and somewhat salacious movie. Historically completely inaccurate

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abigail_Masham,_Baroness_Masham


    Wikipedia credits Abigail’s success on her “gentle and genial nature”. The film gives a very different perspective (it’s actually based on a novel not history and, for some reason, Hollywood likes to cast my ancestors as villains in most films...)
    Must be tough for you :wink:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
    Shoot me now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Scotland (and NI, and Wales), independence is inevitable unless those leading the Union actually make it stand for something, a national aspiration or project which people can believe in.

    Brexit is not it. Brexit divides. Brexit destroys.

    It is not inevitable except in the eyes of leftwingers who have never much cared for it anyway despite the fact that the biggest beneficiaries of ending the Union in England would be the Tories
    Do you really think, given the state of the country right now, that you deserve to govern it any more?
    Well end the Union and Tory rule is pretty much guaranteed for another decade at least without the SNP to prop up Corbyn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019
    Yang has actually got some far more sensible policies than the leading candidates eg bernie wants to just cancel all student debt and warren 90% of it. It is unfair and crazy expensive.

    Far more sensible is yangs proposal to set the interest rate at a level where the government isnt profiting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Yet as the same article points out only 46% actually back Yes including Don't Knows and Westminster will block any indyref2 before 2021 where the SNP will need a majority for one.
    Can Sturgeon call snap elections for Holyrood? Just wondering if we might see a snap election called after a no-deal brexit to get that majority early and capitalise on the cobble-throwing sentiment.
    No, Holyrood is fixed term
    She can if she can cobble together 2/3 of the Parliament to support her.
    Which she can't
  • dixiedean said:

    The think i like about yang is that even if UBI doesnt add up, he is actually talking about the problem of the automation of ever more jobs and trying to find ways we can tackle this new industrial revolution. It is the #1 issue coming down the track.

    Yes. You may criticise him for many things, but not being policy light. 100 policies. Most primary candidates content themselves with looking good in a suit.
    Cough cough beto....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    DavidL said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    DavidL said:

    OK, I've not been giving this 100% of my attention, but this is the first time I've seen the name Andrew Yang.

    My son told me about him. He advocates a guaranteed income for every adult. Claims it would boost growth, increase consumption, reduce inequality and give everyone a better sex life (I may have got that last bit wrong, something to do with reducing mental ill health and stress).

    My son has run the numbers in some detail in the UK for an essay competition. It is a nice idea but they don't come close to adding up.
    Didn't they try it in Finland?

    A better approach surely is to set the minimum wage at a level that ensures people can afford to live without recourse to Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Council Tax support etc. etc.
    The general idea is that it enables people the option to not work and still survive. Not necessarily prosper but survive. That gives them leverage over employers who pay starvation wages and use the threat of dismissal to justify awful working conditions. I'm not convinced it neccessarily adds up either but it probably isn't totally unfeasible if you replace pensions with it as well and ditch the personal tax allowance.
    At £9K it would cost £474bn. Even adding all of the State pensions, current spending on welfare (other than kids and disabled), a bit for the alleged extra growth and a bit more VAT there is a gaping hole that just can't be filled.
    If you're genuinely interested, there was a very good study on it at Bath University, available here: https://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/assessing-the-case-for-a-universal-basic-income-in-the-uk/attachments/ipr-assessing-the-case-for-a-universal-basic-income-in-the-uk.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
    He does not have the MPs unlike Javid and Raab even if he might get the members
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
    Shoot me now.
    Steve Baker as leader of a totally discredited and irrelevant party the Tories are likely to become wouldn't be so bad :smile:
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Yang has actually got some far more sensible policies than the leading candidates eg bernie wants to just cancel all student debt and warren 90% of it. It is unfair and crazy expensive.

    Far more sensible is yangs proposal to set the interest rate at a level where the government isnt profiting.

    Yep, we need to go back to that ourselves. The interest rate on student debt should be fixed by reference to gilts, not what is needed to make the book sellable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
    Steve Baker v John McDonnell election 2024?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Scotland (and NI, and Wales), independence is inevitable unless those leading the Union actually make it stand for something, a national aspiration or project which people can believe in.

    Brexit is not it. Brexit divides. Brexit destroys.

    It is not inevitable except in the eyes of leftwingers who have never much cared for it anyway despite the fact that the biggest beneficiaries of ending the Union in England would be the Tories
    Do you really think, given the state of the country right now, that you deserve to govern it any more?
    Well end the Union and Tory rule is pretty much guaranteed for another decade at least without the SNP to prop up Corbyn
    Ah!...that explains a number of recent occurrences.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    DavidL said:

    OK, I've not been giving this 100% of my attention, but this is the first time I've seen the name Andrew Yang.

    My son told me about him. He advocates a guaranteed income for every adult. Claims it would boost growth, increase consumption, reduce inequality and give everyone a better sex life (I may have got that last bit wrong, something to do with reducing mental ill health and stress).

    My son has run the numbers in some detail in the UK for an essay competition. It is a nice idea but they don't come close to adding up.
    Didn't they try it in Finland?

    A better approach surely is to set the minimum wage at a level that ensures people can afford to live without recourse to Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Council Tax support etc. etc.
    The general idea is that it enables people the option to not work and still survive. Not necessarily prosper but survive. That gives them leverage over employers who pay starvation wages and use the threat of dismissal to justify awful working conditions. I'm not convinced it neccessarily adds up either but it probably isn't totally unfeasible if you replace pensions with it as well and ditch the personal tax allowance.
    At £9K it would cost £474bn. Even adding all of the State pensions, current spending on welfare (other than kids and disabled), a bit for the alleged extra growth and a bit more VAT there is a gaping hole that just can't be filled.
    If you're genuinely interested, there was a very good study on it at Bath University, available here: https://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/assessing-the-case-for-a-universal-basic-income-in-the-uk/attachments/ipr-assessing-the-case-for-a-universal-basic-income-in-the-uk.pdf
    Thanks, I'll pass the link on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited August 2019
    DavidL said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    DavidL said:

    OK, I've not been giving this 100% of my attention, but this is the first time I've seen the name Andrew Yang.

    My son told me about him. He advocates a guaranteed income for every adult. Claims it would boost growth, increase consumption, reduce inequality and give everyone a better sex life (I may have got that last bit wrong, something to do with reducing mental ill health and stress).

    My son has run the numbers in some detail in the UK for an essay competition. It is a nice idea but they don't come close to adding up.
    Didn't they try it in Finland?

    A better approach surely is to set the minimum wage at a level that ensures people can afford to live without recourse to Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Council Tax support etc. etc.
    The general idea is that it enables people the option to not work and still survive. Not necessarily prosper but survive. That gives them leverage over employers who pay starvation wages and use the threat of dismissal to justify awful working conditions. I'm not convinced it neccessarily adds up either but it probably isn't totally unfeasible if you replace pensions with it as well and ditch the personal tax allowance.
    At £9K it would cost £474bn. Even adding all of the State pensions, current spending on welfare (other than kids and disabled), a bit for the alleged extra growth and a bit more VAT there is a gaping hole that just can't be filled.
    Yes but you haven't factored in the removal of personal tax allowances, which would raise in excess of £400bn IIRC

    EDIT: sorry poor maths - it would only be 20% of that so £80bn

    Not saying it's a good idea but it's worth considering.
  • Totally off topic....after trumps outburst about Baltimore, i i decided to start rewatching the wire....shhhhhhhhiiitttttt, even after 15 years still relevant, still the best show ever.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Spare a thought for we Remainers who'll be stranded on DM Island :disappointed:
    If one’s wife’s ancestors came to Derby with the ‘45ers and stayed to marry, do you think one could claim Scottish and therefore EU citizenship? Asking for a friend.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
    Steve Baker v John McDonnell election 2024?
    I'd say I'd leave the country but, realistically, it probably won't be possible.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490

    Charles said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1158802889143476224

    Arguably Britain was not separate to Ireland (they were both part of the United Kingdom) so it was more like self-harm than one entity oppressing another.

    If you go back to the Treaty of Windsor it was the Duke of Normandy and the Earl of Pembroke being beastly to the Irish (and screwing the Flemish in passing)

    The only period of risk would be Cromwell. That’s absolutely not my period - I find puritans so dull - but I think it would have been England oppressing Ireland not Britain doing so (although I have a vague memory that many of the worst offenders were Scots(. In any event they were still separate kingdoms at that point.

    Edit: of course I know that’s not what Lilco meant. Slow hand clap.
    The Scots have often been very enthusiastic butchers. Including in Ireland. The campaigns of Edward Bruce for example. They do have great PR though.
    I've got so many favourite Unionist memes, but 'We were shits but so were you!' is always a good one.
    It's one of my favourite Unionist truths too.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    England will have a PR system. The break up of the Union will be a Tabula Rasa event.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited August 2019

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/158802889143476224

    I don't think the Brexiters have ever really managed to get their heads around Ireland. It does not properly compute.

    A century ago Ireland took back control from a foreign power that set their laws etc would be something Brexiteers would like and know about.
    One does not vote in the elections of a foreign power. Ergo the EU is not a foreign power.
    I thought Ireland sent MPs to Westminster.
    Indeed, for the entire time that the UK existed it always did. No exceptions.
    You could consider the situation 1702-1707 (when Ireland, England and Scotland shared a monarch) and 1707-1801 (when Great Britain and Ireland shared a monarch).

    If you go back far enough in history you have to stop considering countries and start considering monarchs instead. Slapping a Westphalian state structure on, say, the twelvth century, is a classification error.
    Do you mean 1603-1707?
    I didn't, but a quick Google tells me that perhaps I should have. I went with Queen Anne because she liked gambling and I'm vaguely familiar with her reign (tho I haven't seen the film)
    Emma Stone’s character was an ancestor...
    On any other site that might seem strange... :)
    Watch it - a very enjoyable and somewhat salacious movie. Historically completely inaccurate

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abigail_Masham,_Baroness_Masham


    Wikipedia credits Abigail’s success on her “gentle and genial nature”. The film gives a very different perspective (it’s actually based on a novel not history and, for some reason, Hollywood likes to cast my ancestors as villains in most films...)
    Must be tough for you :wink:
    Not as tough as it was for my friend Christopher Tarleton Fagan - Mel Gibson made his ancestor out to be a war criminal!

    We were just the baddies in Rob Roy, Braveheart, assorted movies about Ireland, the Favourite... I suppose the cameo in Master and Commander wasn’t too negative...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    England will have a PR system. The break up of the Union will be a Tabula Rasa event.
    England was 69% for FPTP in 2011, even higher than the 67% across the UK as a whole.

    Even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 but if leftwingers want to sign their own death warrant by pushing to break up the Union (losing SNP MPs and potentially even Welsh Labour MPs from Westminster too) that is up to them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gosh. Dominic Raab is unimpressive. He can't even read a prepared statement, or even smile, like a human being.

    The idea that he was a candidate for PM is still quite startling. What on earth were people seeing and why is he hiding it so successfully?
    Raab along with Javid is probably joint favourite to be next Tory leader now when Boris goes
    I'm happy enough with my tenner on Steve Baker at the moment.
    Steve Baker v John McDonnell election 2024?
    I'd say I'd leave the country but, realistically, it probably won't be possible.
    You better hope the LDs are up by then
  • HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Tic toc, tic toc.

    First any referendum would cause damage due to uncertainty, then we were waiting for the referendum result, the invocation of Article 50. Now it's actual exit.

    Once we have exited and the sky doesn't fall what will it be then?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    DavidL said:

    Yang has actually got some far more sensible policies than the leading candidates eg bernie wants to just cancel all student debt and warren 90% of it. It is unfair and crazy expensive.

    Far more sensible is yangs proposal to set the interest rate at a level where the government isnt profiting.

    Yep, we need to go back to that ourselves. The interest rate on student debt should be fixed by reference to gilts, not what is needed to make the book sellable.
    Interesting if slightly counter-intuitive article from Martin Lewis on this topic.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/students/repay-post-2012-student-loan/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Totally off topic....after trumps outburst about Baltimore, i i decided to start rewatching the wire....shhhhhhhhiiitttttt, even after 15 years still relevant, still the best show ever.

    Yep. :+1:

    I may have to rewatch for fourth or fifth time now you have mentioned it!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    Quite.
  • Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/158802889143476224



    I didn't, but a quick Google tells me that perhaps I should have. I went with Queen Anne because she liked gambling and I'm vaguely familiar with her reign (tho I haven't seen the film)
    Emma Stone’s character was an ancestor...
    On any other site that might seem strange... :)
    Watch it - a very enjoyable and somewhat salacious movie. Historically completely inaccurate

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abigail_Masham,_Baroness_Masham


    Wikipedia credits Abigail’s success on her “gentle and genial nature”. The film gives a very different perspective (it’s actually based on a novel not history and, for some reason, Hollywood likes to cast my ancestors as villains in most films...)
    Must be tough for you :wink:
    Not as tough as it was for my friend Christopher Tarleton Fagan - Mel Gibson made his ancestor out to be a war criminal!

    We were just the baddies in Rob Roy, Braveheart, assorted movies about Ireland, the Favourite... I suppose the cameo in Master and Commander wasn’t too negative...
    pfft ..... that's nothing.

    My ancestor was Napoleon. In these days a big bad Euro baddie.

    And another was Rachel Felix - Jewish, an actress and with the morals of an alley cat. Mind you she was mentioned in Bronte's Villette, which is something, I suppose.

    And on the Irish side, my great grandfather was an early member of the Irish Republican brotherhood and involved in an attack on the Kilmallock police barracks in 1867.

    Incidentally, I found The Favourite to be unwatchable. Perhaps I was in the wrong mood at the time. It seemed irritating rather than charming.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Tic toc, tic toc.

    First any referendum would cause damage due to uncertainty, then we were waiting for the referendum result, the invocation of Article 50. Now it's actual exit.

    Once we have exited and the sky doesn't fall what will it be then?

    You're looking forward to a No Deal exit are you?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    DougSeal said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's depressing that it's come to this but yeah, I'm all aboard the IndyRef2 train. Choo Choo, departing Daily Mail island, destination: anywhere but fucking here.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/scotland-moving-towards-independence-and-unionists-don-t-know-how-stop-it

    Yet as the same article points out only 46% actually back Yes including Don't Knows and Westminster will block any indyref2 before 2021 where the SNP will need a majority for one.
    Can Sturgeon call snap elections for Holyrood? Just wondering if we might see a snap election called after a no-deal brexit to get that majority early and capitalise on the cobble-throwing sentiment.
    I think a two thirds majority in the Scottish Parliament is needed for it to dissolve itself and bring about an “extraordinary” general election.

    Edit - yes, s.3 of the Scotland Act 1999
    So unlikely to pass, fair enough.
  • HYUFD said:

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    England will have a PR system. The break up of the Union will be a Tabula Rasa event.
    England was 69% for FPTP in 2011, even higher than the 67% across the UK as a whole.

    68% for the UK
  • Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Blair did catastrophically badly, losing one whole seat to the Tories :lol:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Totally off topic....after trumps outburst about Baltimore, i i decided to start rewatching the wire....shhhhhhhhiiitttttt, even after 15 years still relevant, still the best show ever.

    I tried watching it recently and just couldn't get into it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Tic toc, tic toc.

    First any referendum would cause damage due to uncertainty, then we were waiting for the referendum result, the invocation of Article 50. Now it's actual exit.

    Once we have exited and the sky doesn't fall what will it be then?

    You're looking forward to a No Deal exit are you?
    Well yeah, he's not going to be affected by any of the disruption. He can sit in his garden with the gramaphone on and pretend everything is fine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Much better than he would have done if he hadn't had Gordon Brown effectively reverse the cause of the issue in the November 200 budget.

    I don't think Boris will find it so easy to reverse a No Deal Brexit once the protests start.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Tic toc, tic toc.

    First any referendum would cause damage due to uncertainty, then we were waiting for the referendum result, the invocation of Article 50. Now it's actual exit.

    Once we have exited and the sky doesn't fall what will it be then?

    You're looking forward to a No Deal exit are you?
    Well yeah, he's not going to be affected by any of the disruption. He can sit in his garden with the gramaphone on and pretend everything is fine.
    Fair point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Huntsman resigns from Moscow. I am old enough to remember him running for POTUS:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7328439/Jon-Huntsman-quits-ambassador-Russia-return-Utah.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Much better than he would have done if he hadn't had Gordon Brown effectively reverse the cause of the issue in the November 200 budget.

    I don't think Boris will find it so easy to reverse a No Deal Brexit once the protests start.
    Most of the fuel protesters will be fully behind No Deal Brexit
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.

    If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    The disruption was temporary because the protestors stopped protesting. Are you arguing we will be back in the EU by mid-November?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    This deserves an airing on this thread as well.

    Brexiteers are something *special*

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/158802889143476224



    I didn't, but a quick Google tells me that perhaps I should have. I went with Queen Anne because she liked gambling and I'm vaguely familiar with her reign (tho I haven't seen the film)
    Emma Stone’s character was an ancestor...
    On any other site that might seem strange... :)
    Watch it - a very enjoyable and somewhat salacious movie. Historically completely inaccurate

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abigail_Masham,_Baroness_Masham


    Wikipedia credits Abigail’s success on her “gentle and genial nature”. The film gives a very different perspective (it’s actually based on a novel not history and, for some reason, Hollywood likes to cast my ancestors as villains in most films...)
    Must be tough for you :wink:
    Not as tough as it was for my friend Christopher Tarleton Fagan - Mel Gibson made his ancestor out to be a war criminal!

    We were just the baddies in Rob Roy, Braveheart, assorted movies about Ireland, the Favourite... I suppose the cameo in Master and Commander wasn’t too negative...
    pfft ..... that's nothing.

    My ancestor was Napoleon. In these days a big bad Euro baddie.

    And another was Rachel Felix - Jewish, an actress and with the morals of an alley cat. Mind you she was mentioned in Bronte's Villette, which is something, I suppose.

    And on the Irish side, my great grandfather was an early member of the Irish Republican brotherhood and involved in an attack on the Kilmallock police barracks in 1867.

    Incidentally, I found The Favourite to be unwatchable. Perhaps I was in the wrong mood at the time. It seemed irritating rather than charming.
    Well then my ancestor, William Poppleton, resigned rather than fulfil orders to spy on your ancestor 😃
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Much better than he would have done if he hadn't had Gordon Brown effectively reverse the cause of the issue in the November 200 budget.

    I don't think Boris will find it so easy to reverse a No Deal Brexit once the protests start.
    Fuel strike was minor compared to the sh*tstorm about to hit.

    But honestly what is the point? At least a third of England wants No Deal come what may and there is no talking them out of this Jones Town madness.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Huntsman resigns from Moscow. I am old enough to remember him running for POTUS:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7328439/Jon-Huntsman-quits-ambassador-Russia-return-Utah.html

    I remember him being one of the last sane GOP members standing. Is that still the case of did he go off the cliff with the rest of his party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Charles said:



    Well then my ancestor, William Poppleton, resigned rather than fulfil orders to spy on your ancestor 😃

    This is the weirdest namedropping competition ever.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Much better than he would have done if he hadn't had Gordon Brown effectively reverse the cause of the issue in the November 200 budget.

    I don't think Boris will find it so easy to reverse a No Deal Brexit once the protests start.
    Most of the fuel protesters will be fully behind No Deal Brexit
    Well that's ok then (?!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    Totally off topic....after trumps outburst about Baltimore, i i decided to start rewatching the wire....shhhhhhhhiiitttttt, even after 15 years still relevant, still the best show ever.

    I tried watching it recently and just couldn't get into it.
    Carver: Man, you can't even call this shit a war.
    Herc: Why not?
    Carver: Wars end.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    You keep telling yourself that.
  • Jofra Archer: Ashes hopeful takes 6-27 and hits century for Sussex second XI

    I have a feeling he might be playing in the 2nd test...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after tge first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    Just plain old :lol:

    Still we will see soon enough.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    OnboardG1 said:

    Charles said:



    Well then my ancestor, William Poppleton, resigned rather than fulfil orders to spy on your ancestor 😃

    This is the weirdest namedropping competition ever.
    The truth is none of them know with any certainty... too much cuckoldry goes on to be certain about your ancestors.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after tge first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    Have we signed new ferry contracts yet? What practical preparation has been made?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    OnboardG1 said:

    Huntsman resigns from Moscow. I am old enough to remember him running for POTUS:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7328439/Jon-Huntsman-quits-ambassador-Russia-return-Utah.html

    I remember him being one of the last sane GOP members standing. Is that still the case of did he go off the cliff with the rest of his party?
    Well, he's resigning, so may be there is a clue.

    Is he planning a 2024 run?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Blair did catastrophically badly, losing one whole seat to the Tories :lol:
    Precisely. That's BoZo's majority gone.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after tge first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    Have we signed new ferry contracts yet? What practical preparation has been made?
    There are some billboards and lots of inflated people shouting "IT IS FINE IT IS FINE ITS 12 O CLOCK AND ALL IS WELL". So we should have a good stockpile of platitudes and misplaced optimism.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.

    If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
    Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.

    Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    In case anyone missed Seamus laying down the law on the Labour plan for a Tory No Deal disaster come what may (after which they pick up the pieces):

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1158807116397912064
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Still, ever appearance on TV by any Labour spokesperson other than Starmer is another ton of Remain votes for Swinson.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    We were told not to believe the break-up of the UK would happen. Project fear they called it! Looks like an independent Scotland is one step closer....

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited August 2019

    Fuel strike 2000 is an interesting example. It is comparable to what No Deal will be like, temporary disruption.

    If there is a temporary disruption people get over it. How did Blair do in the 2001 election?

    Well, it was very temporary and very little disruption.

    If disruption from no deal is, say, a couple of orders of magnitude more extensive and lasts a couple of magnitudes longer, then the consequent political impact might be expected to be similarly greater.
    Seems to me it is obviously going to be way way bigger.

    Farage and his useful idiots don't get it: tens of thousands of people are going to lose their jobs.

    A significant portion of no-dealers (the classic rentier retiree) just don't care because they're typically on fixed incomes, own their home and are insulated from the financial shock. They can afford to delude themselves that everything will be fine, the sunlit uplands will come and we can all afford a little pain. Not them obviously but everyone else. There are quite a few retirees on the Costa del Sol who are shitting it, along with anyone living on a pension supplied by an investment portfolio but the Sussex gin brigade don't give a damn.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Perhaps SLab should break away and form their own party also.

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1158806070493532160?s=20
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    Sorry to hear the news about Toni Morrison. I've never read any of her books I have to admit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    So, if there is food on the shelves (there will be), but unemployment spikes by 200,000, then people will say "well, it's nowhere near as bad as the black plague"?

    The real risk to the UK economy from No Deal is that a confidence shock means consumers become more cautious, means that the savings rate increases, and we enter a negative feedback loop.

    With interest rates currently at 0.75%, there is very little the government can do in the way of monetary stimulus to reverse a cycle like that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after the first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    I think you have lost the plot! So bad consequences now dont matter if the impact is not noticed for a few months...
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    OnboardG1 said:

    Huntsman resigns from Moscow. I am old enough to remember him running for POTUS:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7328439/Jon-Huntsman-quits-ambassador-Russia-return-Utah.html

    I remember him being one of the last sane GOP members standing. Is that still the case of did he go off the cliff with the rest of his party?
    Well, he's resigning, so may be there is a clue.

    Is he planning a 2024 run?
    Sane. But far too boring.

    Sane isn’t enough. Take Jeb Bush for example. Would you want a Jeb Bush transfusion?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:


    Bad news for Labour then, the Tories won a majority of 60 in England at the last general election but no majority in the UK at all

    Did they win 50%? Serious question. Because if they didn't, then in a PR system England would probably have a Lab/Lib coalition.
    Except England does not have a PR system, FPTP won the 2011 referendum comfortably and even if it did on current England only polling a Tory and Brexit Party coalition would be just as likely as Labour and LD
    Let's see how well that stacks up after a catastrophic No Deal exit shall we?
    Fine thank you

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
    Honestly, interesting as this kind of polling is, it is irrelevant to what will really happen at end of October.

    If there are empty shelves, fuel problems, panic buying, meds issues etc etc then all these people now declaring they will back Boris and his No Deal is for the birds.

    Fuel strike. Tony Blair. Early 2000s.
    There won't be, the Government is now fully preparing for No Deal Brexit so any significant effects won't be felt for months. Plus given the apocalyptic warnings about No Deal if people have not died of starvation after tge first week they will be wondering what the fuss was about.

    Leavers are now fully behind getting Brexit done and No Deal and with the Remain vote split between Labour and LD Boris wins
    Have we signed new ferry contracts yet? What practical preparation has been made?
    That's an excellent question. I am a Director of a couple of UK companies. I was the CFO of a multinational based in the UK.

    And the government has told us...

    Bugger all.

    Our accountants told us a great deal about the problems we'd face regarding taxes. But there has been bugger all communication from the government.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019
    AndyJS said:

    I can't see an alternative government being available before a general election. The LDs have said they wouldn't support a Corbyn-led government, and there are enough Labour MPs who've said they wouldn't support a government of national unity.

    Every side is brilliant at saying what they wont do. The government, the EU, labour, etc etc etc
This discussion has been closed.