Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is there life after Brexit?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is there life after Brexit?
I don’t, unlike Dominic Cummings, think that No Deal is unstoppable. Parliament can stop it if it wants to. But let’s suppose that Mr Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the EU on October 31. Let’s further assume that he calls an election soon afterwards.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
And got his article rejected by Labourlist!
If we Leave, especially with No Deal, it would likely switch to rejoin the single market first as a platform to rejoin the full EU if public opinion shifts in that direction. Labour would be similar but focused on rejoining the Customs Union first.
The Tories will still aim for a Canada style FTA and technical solution for the Irish border
LD manifesto: legalise Weed
Con manifesto: tax cuts for the wealthy.
I might vote LD
Why do you have to? Why not say that this is a fresh election, and if you choose Labour, you are choosing not to inflict harm on Britain by leaving (or staying out)?
"we won’t do a trade deal with the USA"
Is that at all realistic? They are a major trading partner so WTO terms effectively mean Trump can screw us as hard as he likes on tariffs and all we can do is reciprocate against a far more economically powerful trading bloc.
Labour's position on this is nuts, frankly. An acceptance that Brexit is a nightmare (which infuriates Leavers), plus an unwillingness to do anything about it (which infuriates Remainers).
On the economy
Labour tax rises and spend.
Tories tax cuts and spend.
LD tax the same and spend. At a guess.
Well, Nick, I'd like to believe that the UK may not have a total monopoly on lunacy.
Has there ever been an Ashcroft poll that bore any resemblance to reality? Serious question,
I would imagine all the other parties will silently breathe a huge sigh of relief not to win in those circumstances. If ever thee was the right election for them to lose this would be it.
Hmm - Broxtowe meets Brexit?
The Americans will give the right people nice deals and the rest do not matter.
If the breadth of the ISDS jurisdiction the counterparty seeks is unacceptable to HMG then it won't sign the deal. It can, after all, be quietly confident that the ISDS court will not grant itself a series of further competencies.
On topic, here are some manifesto stocking filler policies for life outside the EU. Take your pick, PBers;
1. Zero-rating or exemption for VAT on sanitary goods
2. No tariffs on Chinese solar panels
3. No tariffs on Chinese electric bikes
4. No tariffs on bananas.
4a. Massive tariffs on bananas. F*ck bananas.
5. Points based immigration
6. Open-door immigration
7. No immigration.
8. Proportionality requirement for calling strikes
9. A toughened proportionality requirement for calling strikes.
10. No proportionality requirement for calling strikes.
11. Replicate EU state aid rules
12. More prohibitive state aid rules.
13. Looser state aid rules.
14. Everyone has to carry a plastic bag.
I could not vote for Johnson and know other former Tories who will do likewise. I cannot see Labour voters supporting Johnson even if they voted Leave. I dont think Brexit will improve the economy rather it will deteriorate. Creating barriers and buruacratic millstones for business with the EU is an impediment to trade and hence growth. Trade deals with non EU countries are pipe dreams that will take years to achieve if they are obtainable...
Very bad deal.
So if we have brexited and Labour won a majority they could enact any workers rights they wanted, whereas if there was a deal with the EU that said workers rights were the sole responsiblity of the EU the Labour Govt could not.
I am sure Corbyn likes the former.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1158475452631007234
UK 1.2 homicides per 100,000 people
Our politicians would have a lot more scope for policy proposals and while I wouldn't expect a bonfire of regulations at that early juncture, a policy to scrap VAT on domestic fuel might go down well as well as on feminine hygiene products so that the silly compensatory measures on the "tampon tax" can also be shelved.
Time to use our new found freedom on VAT.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1158476882142212096
Do our politicians do thinking and planning ?
Wouldn't it be a distraction from their plotting and posturing ?
Actually the £9 billion savings is a more unprovable figure because it's hypothetical. You assume the UK won't be making payments to the EU and member states. It's likely that at some point the UK will want to do deals with the EU and member states which involve payments. Money is one the few compelling cards in an otherwise weak hand. It's likely the UK will want to play it. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK pays just as much in net cash outside the EU as in it - notwithstanding the loss of revenue already referred to.
You’ve agreed that Brexit weakens the Union.
You should agree it creates an economic hit as well, at least in the short term.
"Wisconsin Depends on World Markets"
https://ustr.gov/map/state-benefits/wi
But it rather suggests that Labour has given up already. Or is it that they just don’t mind No Deal all that much ?
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1158473425888804864
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/el-paso-shooting-gun-control-nra-patrick-crusius-solution-john-cornyn-walmart-latest-a9039191.html
...Cornyn, whose website boasts of his “perfect A+ rating” from the National Rifle Association because of his defence of the right to bear arms, last year opposed moves to restrict access to the sort of semi-automatic weapons used in the weekend’s shootings, although he did support a move to improve background checks after a mass shooting at a church at Sutherland Springs in 2017 killed 26 people.
Asked why there was no ban on semi-automatic weapons, he said: ‘In congress we been trying to find the answer. Each one of these incidents has their own unique characteristics. I don’t think it’s fair to say there is one cause or one solution.”...
I'm sorry, but this is utter bollx.
There may be an economic hit from leaving but it will be no where near as bad as claimed and in the long run I believe there will be an economic benefit.
Outside the EU, the Government can cut them as much they like. It's a freedom, but a freedom to destroy basic security.
Because the only thing more predictable than being called a metropolitan elitist by an Old Etonian funded by Mayfair-based disaster capitalists is Leavers telling you to respect democracy by not voting. Fuck em.
If Johnson loses a VoNC he can stay as PM for up to 14 days. But only if no one else can command majority. If no other individual has persuaded the Queen through the usual channels, or has won a formal confidence vote, then Johnson does get to decide the date of GE.
The way the papers are writing this is that he will be No Confidenced and then still stay in Downing Street for ever and a day, ignoring parliament and trashing the constitution.
Ridiculous spin. No doubt guided by Steve Hilton Mini Me.
The answer is obvious. The sane MPs bring down Johnson and then make sure they have someone within the 14 days who commands the majority.
In that case, Cummings and Johnson would be on their way to the Tower if they refused to hand over the Seals of Office.
Sorry Nick this damns with faint praise and is pretty selective, calling into question your objectivity. Why not list those many undesirables whom he has sucked up to, and in many cases still does. Most if not all of these constitute a far greater risk to our nation than Trump ever would.
I can quite see how your constituents preferred Soubry to you, which speaks volumes.
Once we have left there is absolutely no democratic argument I can see against a campaign to rejoin.
Although the EU is now working on the hypothesis that Britain plans to leave without a deal, Downing Street appeared to open the door to bringing the Withdrawal Agreement back to parliament by insisting that removing the Irish backstop would represent “significant progress”.
The move is likely to anger the so-called ‘Spartans’ in the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Tories who want the Brexit deal to be torn up in favour of an interim free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/05/30-labour-mps-prepared-vote-brexit-deal-boris-johnson-secures/
Wealth consuming oldies who have lots of foreign holidays might not be doing so well though.
1) Do not press the trigger unless you have the votes for an alternative PM e.g. Clarke ( who can be in place within the 14 days).
2) Do it on 3 or 4 the September - any later means probable that Johnson can No Deal during a GE (even those days are tight).
The Sane MPs must press the trigger the day they walk back in September.
They must ignore Jezza's weaselly vacillating dither and get the job done.
But this clearly stated as staying in power even if there was a viable alternative government put forward. It is utter lunacy either by a copy writer who does not understand the law or, more worryingly, by someone in Government who is equally ignorant.
Now they find that that hardline stance is reciprocated by a government that is clearly preparing to leave come what may and may possibly be able to take the UK out on 31st October despite the opposition of MPs.
For the first time since the 2016 vote, the EU is under some real pressure after seeing an unravelling of the assumptions upon which it based its negotiating strategy.
Or, a coup d'etat is being proposed.
Like the most of Cummings’ utterances, it is the purest ordure.
So I think the LibDems would obviously run on Brejoin. I imagine Labour would make a succession of confused attempts to triangulate, because that's how they roll.
I grant that not having to have access to drinking water and basic sanitation (etc) isn't, but I assume even the Tories wouldn't ever seek to overturn those.
One of those lovely Brexit dividends Tyndall et al promised us.