Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nothing up my sleeve

1246

Comments

  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Sandpit said:

    It's inconceivable that the Queen wouldn't call the Father of the House, Ken Clarke, to be PM if it was clear he commanded the confidence of the house for a temporary Gov't of National Unity.

    I'm liking this idea. I'm liking my bet.

    You’re talking yourself into it. Where do 326 non-Tory and non-Labour MPs come from?
    Most Labour MPs want to stop No Deal. They also know that the Jeremy - or at least the stalinists - really want it to happen and they consider his feet dragging to be a significant part of how we got here.

    We saw the bulk of Labour MPs defy Corbyn to back Grieve. I can see more defiance. There's your majority.
    Where did you find odds quoted on KC for next PM? There are none here
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    edited August 2019

    Sandpit said:


    For that to work, the government would need to propose the election, or another government to appear immediately with a clear majority to propose it. Johnson won’t resign until it’s clear that someone else has a majority. I don’t see how there’s a majority to install Corbyn and, much as some people wish it to be true, there aren’t several hundred Lab and Con MPs willing to be expelled from their parties to form some other government against the wishes of Johnson and Corbyn.

    I think you're right that it only works with Corbyn, but I also think that a sufficient number of non-Labour MPs would live with that so long as the terms were suspension of withdrawal and an immediate GE (which the EU would IMO agree to). In general, Corbyn isn't personally hated by most MPs, they just don't want a far-left government. They would expect him to deliver what was promised (and would be able to VONC him if he didn't), and the non-Labour people would think there was a fair chance of defeating Corbyn-led Labour in the ensuing election, threreby avoiding both the Scylla of No Deal and (as they see it) the Charybdis of far-left government.

    It's fairly easy for tthe LibDems and SNP, who have nothing to fear from an election. It would need half a dozen Tories of the Clarke type, eyeing retirement or putting the national interest first. I think theree would be enough.
    Wouldn’t Corbyn withdraw the whip from any MP who votes for someone else in a vote of confidence? Johnson certainly would.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,905
    edited August 2019

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    Johnson wants a winnable election. He won't have a temp FTA in place because he is putting zero effort into getting one and in any case the necessary compromises get in the way of co-opting Brexit Party voters to the Conservative Party.

    I don't think he actually wants No Deal. He's not stupid where his own interest is concerned. But he's stuck.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    eek said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    But it requires 440 MPs to vote for it and pre-conditions may be required for some parties to vote for it.

    If he asked in July he could have probably got away with it, if he asks for an election in September I could imagine Labour asking for an extension as a pre-condition just for the entertainment value...
    I can't see how Corbyn can ask for an extension if it is a September or early October election after he has been clamouring for an election himself. May gor her election in 2017 the same way.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    edited August 2019

    eek said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    But it requires 440 MPs to vote for it and pre-conditions may be required for some parties to vote for it.

    If he asked in July he could have probably got away with it, if he asks for an election in September I could imagine Labour asking for an extension as a pre-condition just for the entertainment value...
    I can't see how Corbyn can ask for an extension if it is a September or early October election after he has been clamouring for an election himself. May gor her election in 2017 the same way.
    I can - it's no different from asking for something in any other negotiation.

    After all who looks bad from the following exchange

    Johnson - we want an election
    Corbyn - happy to have one but October 31st is pretty close. Extend to the end of the year and not a problem.
    Johnson - No...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    For that to work, the government would need to propose the election, or another government to appear immediately with a clear majority to propose it. Johnson won’t resign until it’s clear that someone else has a majority. I don’t see how there’s a majority to install Corbyn and, much as some people wish it to be true, there aren’t several hundred Lab and Con MPs willing to be expelled from their parties to form some other government against the wishes of Johnson and Corbyn.

    I think you're right that it only works with Corbyn, but I also think that a sufficient number of non-Labour MPs would live with that so long as the terms were suspension of withdrawal and an immediate GE (which the EU would IMO agree to). In general, Corbyn isn't personally hated by most MPs, they just don't want a far-left government. They would expect him to deliver what was promised (and would be able to VONC him if he didn't), and the non-Labour people would think there was a fair chance of defeating Corbyn-led Labour in the ensuing election, threreby avoiding both the Scylla of No Deal and (as they see it) the Charybdis of far-left government.

    It's fairly easy for tthe LibDems and SNP, who have nothing to fear from an election. It would need half a dozen Tories of the Clarke type, eyeing retirement or putting the national interest first. I think theree would be enough.
    Wouldn’t Corbyn withdraw the whip from any MP who votes for someone else in a vote of confidence? Johnson certainly would.
    For MPs retiring, from any party, it will be their "sacrifice" for the nation !
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    It seems like we're going to leave with No Deal. Contrary to media speculation and stories about missing ferries, my understanding is that we were quite well prepared last time. We shall clearly be far better prepared this time. That is really all there is to it.

    We are worse prepared than last time. All the companies I know that built up stockpiles for the last deadline have been running them down. Cancelling a deadline has a profound psychological effect. Every time somebody says 'we are leaving on the 31st October' I hear 'I don't believe we are leaving on the 31st of October and I am trying to convince myself'.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    Johnson wants a winnable election. He won't have a temp FTA in place because he is putting zero effort into getting one and in any case the necessary compromises get in the way of co-opting Brexit Party voters to the Conservative Party.

    I don't think he actually wants No Deal. He's not stupid where his own interest is concerned. But he's stuck.
    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,452
    edited August 2019


    How does Ken Clarke get a declared majority without Jeremy Corbyn being PM for a few days in between? (Not to mention that Boris would prefer to face Corbyn at an election, to having to resign the party leadership if Clarke takes over.)

    Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the second largest party, and of HM's loyal Opposition, so it is hard to see how the Palace can overlook his claims in favour of a superannuated Tory backbencher even if Clarke could somehow unite the ERG with Labour backbenchers in his favour.

    Well, it's probably true that if Boris gets VONCed and immediately goes off to the palace and says, "I resign, I recommend that you send for Jeremy Corbyn", you probably get Jeremy Corbyn PM. Once he's in you can't replace him with Clarke unless Tories or vast numbers of Lab rebels defect, because the Con and Lab front benches control a blocking majority between them. So if Corbyn then also lost a VONC, he'd likely remain PM until the election. And you're right that Boris might prefer that, and therefore do that.

    But the discussion upthread was about what happens if Boris doesn't want to recommend anyone else and just hangs on as PM. Then you need a clear sign that you do have a majority to force him to let go. The obvious way would be to have an indicative vote in parliament, but you may just be able to do it in the media or on Twitter, in that if all the necessary leaders say they'll back X, and so do the required number or Tory rebels, and and nobody says they'll defy the whip to vote against, then blind Johnny can see that X has a majority.

    If Corbyn thinks the PM should be Corbyn, I think you basically have to do it with votes in parliament, ie first you vote on Corbyn and he loses, then you bring up the Ken Clarke or whoever and Corbyn has to either back them or publicly cause everything to burn. It's of course possible that he would choose "burn", or work out some procedural strategy to try to win a game of chicken...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Tice in Telegraph: "The Tories must form an electoral pact with the Brexit Party – or else they risk being annihilated"

    Has he cleared this with Farage?

    Did Oakeshott write the article ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,282
    I hope it's of more value (ie any) than the one he did before the indy ref.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1157924579215597569?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493

    It seems like we're going to leave with No Deal. Contrary to media speculation and stories about missing ferries, my understanding is that we were quite well prepared last time. We shall clearly be far better prepared this time. That is really all there is to it.

    We are worse prepared than last time. All the companies I know that built up stockpiles for the last deadline have been running them down. Cancelling a deadline has a profound psychological effect. Every time somebody says 'we are leaving on the 31st October' I hear 'I don't believe we are leaving on the 31st of October and I am trying to convince myself'.
    Well, that will leave you in a position of unpreparedness, but since you're aware of your own tendency, you have the ability to counteract it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Some overthinking going on here. From the evidence of what people have said and done in the past, rather than attempting to divine what we want to think they meant, we know the following...
    Cummings wants No Deal. He is a Leninist who wants to destroy in order to create. Many of the Cabinet are in this group. Same with Milne and the team around Labour.
    Boris and Corbyn want this too, but with a crucial difference...they want it, for now, but not as a matter of ideology, but of pure short term advantage. They think it is the best route to retaining/obtaining power.
    The vast majority of ordinary MPs think this is nuts. Therefore, they have the power of numbers, should they choose to use it.
    When the idea germinates in the heads of Party leaders that it might not be the best route will be when it gets interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,933
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic, again, I really don't see any significant group of MPs foregoing their jobs in order to make a stand. Sounds great on paper but actually doing it? Two or three (although that is all it might take).

    It is increasingly looking like it has been Francois and Baker the master strategists.

    The only no no deal hope is that Boris sees sense and realises the enormity of his current trajectory.

    Can I just stroke my ego and point out that I suggested this back in March? http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/13/has-the-erg-won/
    Stroke away. Given the huge complexities of the alternative routes Occam's Razor says we are heading for for no deal. And to be fair to the rest of us it has been obvious for some time that the do nothing strategy had and still has a very good chance of success.

    Plus of all the people to entrust our future to we picked Boris.

    What times.
    Well, we did not pick Boris. 92,000 elderly Conservatives did.

    Rotten boroughs in the 18th century had nothing on us.
    Remind me - who picked Callaghan to succeed Wilson as PM? And who the hell picked Brown to succeed Blair?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    Five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - so no September election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    edited August 2019

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    For that to work, the government would need to propose the election, or another government to appear immediately with a clear majority to propose it. Johnson won’t resign until it’s clear that someone else has a majority. I don’t see how there’s a majority to install Corbyn and, much as some people wish it to be true, there aren’t several hundred Lab and Con MPs willing to be expelled from their parties to form some other government against the wishes of Johnson and Corbyn.

    I think you're right that it only works with Corbyn, but I also think that a sufficient number of non-Labour MPs would live with that so long as the terms were suspension of withdrawal and an immediate GE (which the EU would IMO agree to). In general, Corbyn isn't personally hated by most MPs, they just don't want a far-left government. They would expect him to deliver what was promised (and would be able to VONC him if he didn't), and the non-Labour people would think there was a fair chance of defeating Corbyn-led Labour in the ensuing election, threreby avoiding both the Scylla of No Deal and (as they see it) the Charybdis of far-left government.

    It's fairly easy for tthe LibDems and SNP, who have nothing to fear from an election. It would need half a dozen Tories of the Clarke type, eyeing retirement or putting the national interest first. I think theree would be enough.
    Wouldn’t Corbyn withdraw the whip from any MP who votes for someone else in a vote of confidence? Johnson certainly would.
    For MPs retiring, from any party, it will be their "sacrifice" for the nation !
    Oh indeed, I can see a dozen or so doing it, but from where do we get 326 non-Tory and Non-Labour MPs, when there’s currently only 100?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    That's not true. An FTA is outside the scope of Article 50. Only a transition period would be possible, which depends on a withdrawal agreement.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    F1: Ricciardo has a new power unit, and starts last.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    That's not true. An FTA is outside the scope of Article 50. Only a transition period would be possible, which depends on a withdrawal agreement.
    And you have your answer the temp FTA is called a withdrawl agreement. Moot point anyway because it will not be happening, I only mention it because BoJo has proposed it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,958

    The whole point of the 14 days is to give SOMEONE (not, necessarily someone ELSE) the opportunity to gain the confidence of the house. First in line, the incumbent.

    The whole premise of this situation is that incumbent just had their claim to the confidence of the house tested and failed the test.
    But if Boris loses a VONC and then says "ok, it's definitely not going to be no deal I guarantee it", some of the waverers could come back and provide him with enough confidence to continue.

    Not saying that would happen, but losing a VONC once doesn't mean he theoretically can't get it back again within the 14 days.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    justin124 said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    Five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - so no September election.
    September could only happen if Parliament is recalled early. Not impossible but unlikely.

    In more important news, a wave of undocumented North African migrants has arrived in my garden!

    https://twitter.com/UofGlasgow/status/1157311982934077440?s=19
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    That's not true. An FTA is outside the scope of Article 50. Only a transition period would be possible, which depends on a withdrawal agreement.
    And you have your answer the temp FTA is called a withdrawl agreement. Moot point anyway because it will not be happening, I only mention it because BoJo has proposed it.
    And a withdrawal agreement cannot be done in 1 hour. It needs to be ratified by the European and UK parliaments.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742

    It seems like we're going to leave with No Deal. Contrary to media speculation and stories about missing ferries, my understanding is that we were quite well prepared last time. We shall clearly be far better prepared this time. That is really all there is to it.

    We are worse prepared than last time. All the companies I know that built up stockpiles for the last deadline have been running them down. Cancelling a deadline has a profound psychological effect. Every time somebody says 'we are leaving on the 31st October' I hear 'I don't believe we are leaving on the 31st of October and I am trying to convince myself'.
    And in any case preparation for disruption is not the same as no disruption.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,452
    While we're doing weird procedural hypotheticals maybe you can get No Deal like this:
    * VONC
    * Boris: Your majesty, I've lost the confidence of the house, I recommend you send for Michael Gove
    * VONC
    * Gove: Your majesty, I've lost the confidence of the house, I recommend you send for Priti Patel
    * VONC
    * Patel:
    [Repeat until exit day]
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    FF43 said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    Johnson wants a winnable election. He won't have a temp FTA in place because he is putting zero effort into getting one and in any case the necessary compromises get in the way of co-opting Brexit Party voters to the Conservative Party.

    I don't think he actually wants No Deal. He's not stupid where his own interest is concerned. But he's stuck.
    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.
    The HMRC wrote to all importers well before the 29th March deadline that no trucks coming in from the EU will be stopped. They also said they will accept delayed VAT payments [ this will be the only difference between now and then. Now there is no VAT to be paid on EU imports ]. It is actually not a big deal as Importers have to declare their imports via INTRASTAT now. We just have to pay 20% VAT and reclaim it through the VAT Return. [ It will have an initial cashflow problem but that's another matter ].

    The problem will be on the other side. As a WTO country, the EU will impose tariffs, and because of regulatory divergence, particularly in Food, they can stop any shipment from the UK. I am sure thay will ensure with Eurorail and the Ferry companies that the queue will be in Kent and not in Calais or in Ostend.
    That will not be in Johnson's hand. That is why Kent will become a Lorry Park.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    F1: Ricciardo has a new power unit, and starts last.

    Given that he was starting something like 18th a completely new power unit doesn't exactly cost him anything.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    edited August 2019

    F1: Ricciardo has a new power unit, and starts last.

    That’s both Renaults and RB Hondas already on their last engine for the season. Lots more penalties to come for them later on.

    F2 sprint race was won by a Ferrari junior driver, some 20 year old called Mick Schumacher. Watch out for him in a Sauber when Kimi decides to finally hang up his helmet.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    While we're doing weird procedural hypotheticals maybe you can get No Deal like this:
    * VONC
    * Boris: Your majesty, I've lost the confidence of the house, I recommend you send for Michael Gove
    * VONC
    * Gove: Your majesty, I've lost the confidence of the house, I recommend you send for Priti Patel
    * VONC
    * Patel:
    [Repeat until exit day]

    James Callaghan could have done the same thing. I bet the Palace will not want to enter into any controversy and HM's PPS will ask Corbyn to meet the Queen.
    Otherwise, the Queen will be sucked into this. The Firm does very well by being above all these. Withlam's dismissal by Kerr was controversial enough. But that was in Australia.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. Sandpit, *Alfa. I keep wanting to call them Saubers too. Renault need some better results. They've got two strong drivers but now (I think) they're behind Toro Rosso.

    Mr. Eek, aye. Not great, though, on a track where passing's so hard.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    Did you know that under the FTPA a General Election doesn't have to be held on a Thursday?

    Bet you all did, but it's news to me.

    I didn't know they had to be on a Thursday now, just that that is the convention and so assumed to always be the day.
    I am not aware that Polling Day has to be a Thursday - certainly before 1931 GEs were held on various weekdays
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,933

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    It doesn't rule out "crashing out" if that is the do-nothing default setting.

    As it is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,646

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
    Its France, its not the law its more guidelines
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited August 2019

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
    But is still comes back to my basic point if Dover Calais has a reduced capacity after Oct 31st because of new rules, then if the Govt regulates the flow to the new capacity then there will be minimal disruption in the terms of queues of lorries in Kent.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
    Not to mention that hauliers use Dover/Calais because that is where the ships are, and yes I know Chris Grayling arranged for spare ships but ...

    ETA massive disruption does not need massive disruption. Massive disruption will eventually result from even small increases in journey times whether due to customs checks or simply to alternative routes taking longer distances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    edited August 2019

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
    But is still comes back to my basic point if Dover Calais has a reduced capacity after Oct 31st because of new rules, then if the Govt regulates the flow to the new capacity then there will be minimal disruption in the terms of queues of lorries in Kent.
    Start by restricting the flow of foreign lorries bound for Dover, from places like Holyhead. ;)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
    But is still comes back to my basic point if Dover Calais has a reduced capacity after Oct 31st because of new rules, then if the Govt regulates the flow to the new capacity then there will be minimal disruption in the terms of queues of lorries in Kent.
    Start by restricting the flow of foreign lorries bound for Dover, from places like Holyhead. ;)
    Fx: Dominic Raab scrabbling to find Holyhead on google maps.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    I assume, although one can not rely on this, but won't the EU simply stop the clock if 31/10 falls in a period of a GE or faffing over VONC debacle. After all it may, just may get resolved one way or another when the shenanigans are over.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Did you know that under the FTPA a General Election doesn't have to be held on a Thursday?

    Bet you all did, but it's news to me.

    I didn't know they had to be on a Thursday now, just that that is the convention and so assumed to always be the day.
    I am not aware that Polling Day has to be a Thursday - certainly before 1931 GEs were held on various weekdays
    Apparently, the rationale was that it was the day before pay day. Therefore, fewer people likely to be shopping, in the pub. Doesn't really apply today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    As I understand, the authorities at Calais have made an arrangement with the ferry companies so that lorries heading to FR without the correct paperwork will not be allowed to board. They will be diverted to Manston airfield.
  • Sandpit said:


    Oh indeed, I can see a dozen or so doing it, but from where do we get 326 non-Tory and Non-Labour MPs, when there’s currently only 100?

    From both parties - the MPs who (a) hate their leader and (b) see stopping No Deal as far more important than any other issue
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    More important than Brexit. Smith is on 63 and the Aussies are slowly building a lead. I think more than 200, and Lyon will be in the game.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    LOL, they cannot agree jackshit in 3 years and you think an FTA will take less than 1 hour , super optimist.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    As I understand, the authorities at Calais have made an arrangement with the ferry companies so that lorries heading to FR without the correct paperwork will not be allowed to board. They will be diverted to Manston airfield.
    They will go back to base because they can not get the paperwork at Manston.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,913

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20

    It is quite clear this Parliament has no interested voting for the Withdrawal Agreement it rejected 3 times and further extension would be as pointless as the last, so No Deal it must now be
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,933

    Sandpit said:


    Oh indeed, I can see a dozen or so doing it, but from where do we get 326 non-Tory and Non-Labour MPs, when there’s currently only 100?

    From both parties - the MPs who (a) hate their leader and (b) see stopping No Deal as far more important than any other issue
    If stopping No Deal was that important, why in the name of everything sane didn't they vote for May's Deal? Yeah, I'm looking at you, those legions of hand-wringing Labour MPs....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    malcolmg said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    LOL, they cannot agree jackshit in 3 years and you think an FTA will take less than 1 hour , super optimist.
    No I do not think an an FTA will take less than 1 hour, I was responding to the point stated that an FTA takes 5 years. There is no law that states an FTA must take a set amount of time.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20

    It is quite clear this Parliament has no interested voting for the Withdrawal Agreement it rejected 3 times and further extension would be as pointless as the last, so No Deal it must now be
    The BXP overtaking the Tories is not a constitutional problem. Probably no problem at all for 60% of the population.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Not much cricket chat this am. The pitch seems to be getting even slower. Draw now 7/2 and shortening. If these two get to Lunch, I reckon it will be much shorter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,063
    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...
  • I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    As I understand, the authorities at Calais have made an arrangement with the ferry companies so that lorries heading to FR without the correct paperwork will not be allowed to board. They will be diverted to Manston airfield.
    They will go back to base because they can not get the paperwork at Manston.
    And that only happens once or twice. After that vehicle loads aren't even dispatched because the paperwork cannot be obtained...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    I agree he will not get a temp FTA. I disagree that no deal is bad for Johnsons electoral chances if the election is soon after 31st Oct. the main effects will be delayed, all the Govt has to do short term is make sure traffic is flowing through Calais smoothly. BoJo will be on the tele "Gloomsters and doomsters said we could not do customs, my no deal preps have worked, vote for me."

    Brexit Party neutered.

    How will the UK government control the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Apols meant Dover.
    Is the flow of traffic in Dover not dependent on the flow of traffic in Calais?
    Yes and even if in the press it has all been tailbacks and chaos the Governments own report had three scenarios, 1) all works as normal 2) there is some minimal disruption which lasts a short time 3) there is serious disruption that last for a while. No 3 was completely dependent on the French playing silly billys.

    So the Government needs to regulate the amount of traffic, by routing traffic via alternative routes, so that Dover Calais is not congested. They will be helped in this by stockpiling. You can see businesses and hauliers not using Dover Calais for a period because of the risk to disruption to their businesses.
    Where "playing silly billys" = applying the law? The same law that all the other ports on the other side of the Channel will be applying...
    Its France, its not the law its more guidelines
    It is the law. All WTO countries will have to be treated the same. It is the UK which will be breaking WTO regulations by waiving the trucks through.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    A 3 to 6 month extension beyond October 31st is only a problem because Boris has made it one..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    Five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - so no September election.
    September could only happen if Parliament is recalled early. Not impossible but unlikely.

    In more important news, a wave of undocumented North African migrants has arrived in my garden!

    https://twitter.com/UofGlasgow/status/1157311982934077440?s=19
    Amazing , we have loads of them , some journey from Africa.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    James Callaghan lost by 1 vote ! What would your reaction have been if he hung on ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    Five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - so no September election.
    September could only happen if Parliament is recalled early. Not impossible but unlikely.

    In more important news, a wave of undocumented North African migrants has arrived in my garden!

    https://twitter.com/UofGlasgow/status/1157311982934077440?s=19
    Amazing , we have loads of them , some journey from Africa.
    Thank God, they are not passing through Italy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404

    malcolmg said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    LOL, they cannot agree jackshit in 3 years and you think an FTA will take less than 1 hour , super optimist.
    No I do not think an an FTA will take less than 1 hour, I was responding to the point stated that an FTA takes 5 years. There is no law that states an FTA must take a set amount of time.
    I know you were not, was just highlighting that it will be the 5 years end rather than the other side of the scale for certain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742
    edited August 2019
    Another politician’s staffer takes over their twitter account to resign:

    (Or maybe it’s yet another parody account?)

    https://www.twitter.com/JMcCawberMEP/status/1157679811705430017
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404
    dixiedean said:

    Not much cricket chat this am. The pitch seems to be getting even slower. Draw now 7/2 and shortening. If these two get to Lunch, I reckon it will be much shorter.

    Bored themselves to silence Dixie
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    While we're doing weird procedural hypotheticals maybe you can get No Deal like this:
    * VONC
    * Boris: Your majesty, I've lost the confidence of the house, I recommend you send for Michael Gove
    * VONC
    * Gove: Your majesty, I've lost the confidence of the house, I recommend you send for Priti Patel
    * VONC
    * Patel:
    [Repeat until exit day]

    Worth it for pure entertainment value alone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404

    Sandpit said:


    Oh indeed, I can see a dozen or so doing it, but from where do we get 326 non-Tory and Non-Labour MPs, when there’s currently only 100?

    From both parties - the MPs who (a) hate their leader and (b) see stopping No Deal as far more important than any other issue
    If stopping No Deal was that important, why in the name of everything sane didn't they vote for May's Deal? Yeah, I'm looking at you, those legions of hand-wringing Labour MPs....
    More pertinent why did they not vote for the SNP motion , good old Labour especially.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    malcolmg said:

    No one has discussed, as far as I know, another possibility:

    What if Johnson wants an election ? I doubt it personally though.
    An election has one advantage for him. He could frame it as a No Deal Brexit but if he couldn't get it, he would try an get as favourable an exit, as he sees it, as possible.
    So, what's the difference compared to now ? If he wins he can get a deal and make the ERG redundant.
    There is one solution to the "Backstop" that I think will pass both with the EU and in the HoC. What if it was time-limited to, wait for it, until an FTA was agreed between the UK and the EU.
    The whole idea of the backstop from the EU's point of view is to have an insurance policy in case, there is no FTA. This meets it. It also meets the DUP red line. Enough MPs will vote for it.

    He could ask for an election in September. No VoNC needed.

    I think Johnson wants an election. I just think he wants it after the 31st of Oct when he either has a temp FTA in place or a no deal.
    He cannot have a temporary FTA. An FTA will take 5 years. It needs just one objection, e.g. Wallonia. A temporary extension is an extension of Article 50.
    An FTA can take 1 hour to agree. If agreed before the 31st Oct it does not have to go to the regions, it is decided by the heads of state.
    LOL, they cannot agree jackshit in 3 years and you think an FTA will take less than 1 hour , super optimist.
    No I do not think an an FTA will take less than 1 hour, I was responding to the point stated that an FTA takes 5 years. There is no law that states an FTA must take a set amount of time.
    Article 50 allowed 2 years to get the WA. And only then talks for an FTA could begin. Look where we are now...….

    They should have taken your advice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,905
    edited August 2019
    We know enough to make a reasonable guess at what No Deal will be like at the onset. The UK will try to keep imports flowing by not imposing checks. The EU for its part will severely throttle UK exports. The consequences will be rapid bankruptcies in UK exporting firms, job losses and relocation of EU supply out of the UK into the EU. Provision of tomatoes will probably be OK. The normal run on the pound will exacerbate, debt rating downgrades and so on.

    I don't see that as a stable outcome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,913

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.

    https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20

    It is quite clear this Parliament has no interested voting for the Withdrawal Agreement it rejected 3 times and further extension would be as pointless as the last, so No Deal it must now be
    The BXP overtaking the Tories is not a constitutional problem. Probably no problem at all for 60% of the population.
    In the short term maybe, with that poll putting the Brexit Party second behind Labour if further extension if that ultimately leads to PM Farage in a few years time pursuing a populist right agenda that makes Boris look like a wet liberal they might think differently
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    edited August 2019

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 working days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs! The precident is Brown in 2010.
  • Well we all know how the cricket goes dont we. Ozzies bat rest of the day and england collapse by mid afternoon tomorrow.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    Sandpit said:

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs!
    25 working days later..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,913
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    Complete and utter rubbish.


    Corbyn is Foot's Labour, Farage is a Thatcherite. The SDP were a threat to Foot's Labour NOT the Tories in the 1980s. Indeed the SDP and Labour split in the 1980s on the left helped Thatcher win 2 landslides in 1983 and 1987 with an identical voteshare to what May got in 2017.


    According to the latest YouGov 18% of 2017 Tories are still voting Brexit Party but only 9% LD, 21% of 2017 Labour voters are voting LD though but only 7% Brexit Party.


    The real threat to the Tories comes from the Brexit Party, the real threat to Labour comes from the LDs


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/twa1h7mn6m/TimesResults_190730_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,905
    IanB2 said:

    Another politician’s staffer takes over their twitter account to resign:

    (Or maybe it’s yet another parody account?)

    https://www.twitter.com/JMcCawberMEP/status/1157679811705430017

    Parody is the new post truth. With the Brexit Party, it's impossible to tell what's policy and what's parody.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,063
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs!
    25 working days later..
    At least 25 days later - it can be more, at the discretion of the PM. The HoC usually has some time for “wash up” (getting uncontentious stuff through).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs!
    25 working days later..
    Indeed. Edited to make that clear.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs!
    No, there is no mechanism for anyone to demonstrate their hypothetical government can survive a hypothetical confidence vote.

    Boris has three choices on losing a VONC.

    1) Try again and lose again, leading to 2 or 3:
    2) Recommend Jeremy Corbyn
    3) Recommend a different Conservative

    So it must be Corbyn. Boris can then win a general election called by JC and be back in Downing Street in time for Christmas, whereas if he recommends another Conservative, Boris will have to stand down as party leader.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,063

    Sandpit said:

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs!
    No, there is no mechanism for anyone to demonstrate their hypothetical government can survive a hypothetical confidence vote.

    Boris has three choices on losing a VONC.

    1) Try again and lose again, leading to 2 or 3:
    2) Recommend Jeremy Corbyn
    3) Recommend a different Conservative

    So it must be Corbyn. Boris can then win a general election called by JC and be back in Downing Street in time for Christmas, whereas if he recommends another Conservative, Boris will have to stand down as party leader.
    Why would Boris do 2 over 3?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,836

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    James Callaghan lost by 1 vote ! What would your reaction have been if he hung on ?
    In the old days after losing a VONC the PM "hung on" in the sense of remaining PM (because the Queen's government must be carried on) but parliament was dissolved and an election took place.

    Now the PM still has to "hang on" following a VONC, because the Queen's government still has to be carried on. But if someone else is likely to be able to form a government then he should stop hanging on and step aside for that other person. In fact he should advise the Queen to invite that person to form a government.

    But with regard to how likely is "likely" and what happens if the outgoing PM tries to hang on unreasonably, we move into grey areas and uncharted waters.

    Extreme Brexiteers don't really mind that, because their insane self-destructive urge compels them to seek collective suicide at any cost. They'll throw the independence of the judiciary on to the funeral pyre. The same goes for the sovereignty of parliament. No doubt the same goes for the principle that the monarchy should be above politics. Their principle is:
    "Let Brexit be done, though the heavens fall."

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    I have a theory that the Lib Dems could win any seat south of the Thames outside of London if they focused on it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Agree complete laughing stock , Europeans cannot believe what is happening and think UK has gone mad.
    God forbid any european nations ever have political crises, its amazing they've all collectively avoided such an event in all their histories, and certainly recent histories. No government collapses or multiple elections a year or over successive years or separatist regions or extremist parties getting huge votes or having head of state candidates, or economic chaos or...

    How lucky they all have been
    The point, borne out by discussions on visits to many European countries over the past couple of months, is that the other European countries always had their crises. And we never did; we were the island of sanity in Europe. No longer.

    For them it's dog bites man; for us it's man bites dog.
    But, we've frequently had political crises. 1966 to 1984 was one long crisis. The period 1984 to 2010 was unusually stable. But the financial crash brought that stability to an end.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    England could lose this one. The odds must be changing fast.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    I have a theory that the Lib Dems could win any seat south of the Thames outside of London if they focused on it.
    Sounds more like a fantasy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    edited August 2019

    England could lose this one. The odds must be changing fast.

    Cricviz has each possible outcome at 33%. Another hour of this and it is definitely Australia favourites.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,913
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    I have a theory that the Lib Dems could win any seat south of the Thames outside of London if they focused on it.
    Sounds more like a fantasy
    They certainly won't win Thanet or Hastings
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    Sandpit said:

    If Boris loses a VONC by a couple of votes he has every right to try to persuade the house again to support his government. If he loses by many dozens that will be a more challenging scenario.

    The idea the HMQEII is sitting on a hair trigger waiting to send for Corbyn, irrespective of the advice of her PM is another unicorn...

    There’s two conventions at play:

    1. There is always a government.
    2. The outgoing PM gives HM the name of his successor, to avoid drawing the Queen into politics.

    Johnson won’t resign as PM until someone else clearly has a majority, if no-one can form that majority within 14 days and he can’t assemble one himself, then Parliament is dissolved for an election 25 days later - which may or may not be after Brexit occurs!
    No, there is no mechanism for anyone to demonstrate their hypothetical government can survive a hypothetical confidence vote.

    Boris has three choices on losing a VONC.

    1) Try again and lose again, leading to 2 or 3:
    2) Recommend Jeremy Corbyn
    3) Recommend a different Conservative

    So it must be Corbyn. Boris can then win a general election called by JC and be back in Downing Street in time for Christmas, whereas if he recommends another Conservative, Boris will have to stand down as party leader.
    He can’t resign until it’s clear someone has a majority to replace him. See Gordon Brown after the 2010 election for an example. How this would work in practice is that parties representing more than half the MPs in Parliament make an announcement that they wish to form a government. If Corbyn can do that then he’ll be PM. Another Conservative would need to come out of a quick process of election by Conservative MPs, which would first require Johnson to resign as leader. He won’t do this, he’ll run out the 14 day clock until an election is called by default.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    I have a theory that the Lib Dems could win any seat south of the Thames outside of London if they focused on it.
    I will be surprised if the LDs end up with more than 25 seats.
  • Missed stumping.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    I have a theory that the Lib Dems could win any seat south of the Thames outside of London if they focused on it.
    I think the New Forest constituencies, Portsmouth North, Southampton Itchen, almost anything in Kent, Hastings & Rye, Spelthorne, almost anything in Dorset, Gosport, Fareham, the Bognors, Crawley, would be unwinnable for the Lib Dems.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    I have a theory that the Lib Dems could win any seat south of the Thames outside of London if they focused on it.
    Sounds more like a fantasy
    They certainly won't win Thanet or Hastings
    They'll have a job prising Caroline Lucas out, too.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Agree complete laughing stock , Europeans cannot believe what is happening and think UK has gone mad.
    God forbid any european nations ever have political crises, its amazing they've all collectively avoided such an event in all their histories, and certainly recent histories. No government collapses or multiple elections a year or over successive years or separatist regions or extremist parties getting huge votes or having head of state candidates, or economic chaos or...

    How lucky they all have been
    The point, borne out by discussions on visits to many European countries over the past couple of months, is that the other European countries always had their crises. And we never did; we were the island of sanity in Europe. No longer.

    For them it's dog bites man; for us it's man bites dog.
    And yet, when they have their crises, you get war, Fascism, riots, murder in the streets, Hitler, Franco, les soixante huitards, communism, Mussolini, and the Holocaust. In Britain we get.... Jacob Rees Mogg and son, walking around Brecon in identical tweet suits.

    Despite this bout of chaotic constitutional navel-gazing, we are still the island of sanity.

    The insanity might come if Brexit is soon to be scuppered by the Establishment.
  • Its them jews, i mean zionists, again...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,913
    edited August 2019
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    Indeed, YouGov now has the Tories on 32% with both ABC1s and C2DEs, so the Boris led Tories do equally as well with the middle classes and the working classes.


    The LDs though are on 23% with ABC1s but only 13% with C2DEs, while Labour are on 25% with C2DEs and 21% with ABC1s and the Brexit Party are on 18% with C2DEs but only 10% with ABC1s.


    So the LDs, not the Tories, are the new party of the middle class, Labour and the Brexit Party are battling to be the party of the working class and the Tories under Boris are classless


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/twa1h7mn6m/TimesResults_190730_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,249
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    Complete and utter rubbish.


    Corbyn is Foot's Labour, Farage is a Thatcherite. The SDP were a threat to Foot's Labour NOT the Tories in the 1980s. Indeed the SDP and Labour split in the 1980s on the left helped Thatcher win 2 landslides in 1983 and 1987 with an identical voteshare to what May got in 2017.


    According to the latest YouGov 18% of 2017 Tories are still voting Brexit Party but only 9% LD, 21% of 2017 Labour voters are voting LD though but only 7% Brexit Party.


    The real threat to the Tories comes from the Brexit Party, the real threat to Labour comes from the LDs


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/twa1h7mn6m/TimesResults_190730_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
    Existentially, I don't think that is true. The Tory electoral success over the last century is based on their wide coalition spanning from the far rightr all the way to the center left. The left only wins during those periods when it coalesces around Labour.

    The Tories could survive sloughing off the far right. But they will be destroyed if they permanently lose the center right and center, which is a far larger proportion of the electorate.

    We haven't seen an election that has tested that yet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    wrt FTPA 14-days cooling-off period after VNOC.

    If this is a de facto purdah period, so HMG can do nothing "big", does that rule out revocation, extension and crashing out?

    Yes, but I don't think extension can be considered big as it simply continues the status quo. Why should a 3 or 6 month extension be controversial except to some Loonies.
    As further extension would mean the Brexit Party overtaking the Tories again, probably this time for good, with the Tories falling behind both Labour and Farage's Party. Boris has to deliver Brexit on October 31st or the Tory Party may not only lost power but cease to be the main party of the right in UK politics too.
    If we went back to the political alignment of the early 80s before the SDP breakaway, the Brexit Party would be Foot's Labour, not Maggie's Conservatives. Your reading of them as a potential replacement for the Tories is very wide of the mark. The real threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems.
    The likelihood is that both the Conservatives and TBP attract support from some of the groups that would have voted Labour in 1983, because support for right wing parties comes more from the working classes, and less from the middle classes, than in 1983.

    The Lib Dems are a real threat to the Conservatives along the M3 and M4 corridors, but not along the M1, M2, M5, or M6, IMHO.
    The M1, M6 working class Tory vote is much more of an anti-Labour vote than in M3, M4 Tory areas. There the threat to the Tories comes from a neutered Labour party removing their own raison d'etre.

    The M2 corridor is probably where there's the most direct overlap between the Tories and the Brexit Party, but even there Farage couldn't get elected.
This discussion has been closed.