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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742
    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    I'm just imagining Cummings reading the tweets in response to his Telegraph article and going, "WTF, Fixed Terms Parliament Act", never heard of it before, why did nobody tell me about this? Shit, shit, that's the whole strategy buggered"

    It's more likely he's figured out that there's no actual possible candidate who could win a confidence vote inside 14 days.
    Just further to the fracas about this last night -

    It is quite amazing that the Brexiteer faithful are so insistent that it would be impossible for the Queen to appoint a prime minister who would go on to lose a confidence vote. Given that in the circumstances we are talking about, that would have just happened!

    People surely remember the speculation that Johnson would never become PM in the first place because the Queen could not be advised that he would have the support of the House. Still, he did become PM, and that certainly wasn't because his position in the House of Commons strengthened. If parliament hadn't risen almost immediately, he might have been VONCed by now. He may well be VONCed immediately after parliament returns.

    Of course the circumstances were different. He was elected leader of the largest party in the Commons. But the principle is identical. And that party doesn't have a majority, and a number of its MPs are strongly opposed to No Deal.

    And the other point is that - as the briefing posted by Nick Palmer last night shows - unless there is a clear-cut declaration by a group of parties commanding a majority - the procedure by which the Queen would be advised becomes very informal and very uncertain. How many times over the last few months have the results of votes on Brexit been reliably predictable? And even if there were a clear-cut declaration by a group of parties nominally commanding a majority, could anyone be sure that nominal command would translate into an actual majority when the motion was put? Between the Queen appointing Corbyn prime minister and the motion being put, necessarily a government would have to be formed, and the scope for MPs in an exceptionally fragmented hung parliament to change their minds after that process is clear - not just over Brexit, but over any number of other issues.

    I'm afraid that as usual, we have the Brexiteer faithful trumpeting as a fact what they would _like_ to be true, and losing contact with reality in the process.

    But in any case, what is crystal clear is that _if_ the Queen _did_ ask Corbyn to form a government, then he would be prime minister, not Johnson. And even if that government subsequently failed to win a confidence vote, he would remain prime minister throughout the subsequent election campaign, not Johnson.
    There is nothing to stop someone else having a go next
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,393
    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Your continued slurring of the elderly and people from northern towns and cities is a most unpleasant feature of the site. You should take a long hard look in the mirror at yourself perhaps. You make me ashamed to have voted Remain - except that I know most people do not share your prejidice and bigotry.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    Post No Deal Brexit, all the best dinner party chat will be "Korean cars - amazing! Who knew?" and "I've disovered this fantastic Chilean fizz...."

    But, as I said, leaving it late is the EU standard operating procedure.
    On that note, yesterday I ordered my Kia E-Niro. Currently tarrif free via EU trade deal, but remaining so even with no deal.

    12 monthe delivery time though as they cannot ramp up production fast enough.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    alex. said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Are they? All I hear from extreme Brexiteers is how we aren’t going to impose any new tariffs on incoming goods...

    Which as we've commented before really isn't a good negotiation tactic..
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I do not accept that at all and politicians across the EU especially in Ireland, Germany and France are going to become the subject of fury as so many of their citizens lose their jobs and the EU goes into recession.

    In many ways your views are part of the problem.

    Hero worship the EU - attack the UK

    Just as ERG etc are

    Hero worship UK - attack the EU
  • So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    Just interested how you see the pathway to this and the time scale starting from the first week in September
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Your continued slurring of the elderly and people from northern towns and cities is a most unpleasant feature of the site. You should take a long hard look in the mirror at yourself perhaps. You make me ashamed to have voted Remain - except that I know most people do not share your prejidice and bigotry.
    Felix. If it wasn't that you live in Spain I'd tell you to take a holiday!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2019

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    I think it could end up as

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    GE sometime in 2020

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    Then weaknesses of the FTPA are on display. Parliament has no majority for anything including its own dissolution. The question to which you do not have an answer is this because it hasn't happened before.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I do not accept that at all and politicians across the EU especially in Ireland, Germany and France are going to become the subject of fury as so many of their citizens lose their jobs and the EU goes into recession.

    In many ways your views are part of the problem.

    Hero worship the EU - attack the UK

    Just as ERG etc are

    Hero worship UK - attack the EU
    No hero worship, just recognition that we have Bozo the clown as PM and a cabinet of numpties (Liz Truss interview the other day!). We have a government of mendacious bullshitters, and an opposition front bench as bad.

    EU workers are not going to blame their own side, they will blame the Brits. Indeed it will make any post No Deal discussions very difficult.
  • AJKAJK Posts: 20
    In 1931 Ramsay MacDonald tendered his resignation when Labour couldn't agree public expenditure cuts- July/August 1931 I think. The King then asked him to form a national government, which as we all know he did, and the subsequent GE wasn't until November. I think, if Ken Clarke, or some other respected person could find another 320 supporting MPs, there is no reason why they couldn't revoke article 50, and then carry on until April 2020. The budget would be a problem though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    I think it could end up as

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    GE sometime in 2020

    Technically after a VONC the others would be failed VOCs
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,811

    Bellingcat's early (and interesting) take on the El Paso shooting:

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2019/08/04/the-el-paso-shooting-and-the-gamification-of-terror/


    Gamification of terror was alarmingly portrayed exactly like this in Jon Evans' eccellent novel (amazingly on offer at 50p hardback, though £18 paperback):

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Trail-Dead-Evans-5-Jul-2004-Paperback/dp/B013RP9CSA

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I do not accept that at all and politicians across the EU especially in Ireland, Germany and France are going to become the subject of fury as so many of their citizens lose their jobs and the EU goes into recession.

    In many ways your views are part of the problem.

    Hero worship the EU - attack the UK

    Just as ERG etc are

    Hero worship UK - attack the EU
    No hero worship, just recognition that we have Bozo the clown as PM and a cabinet of numpties (Liz Truss interview the other day!). We have a government of mendacious bullshitters, and an opposition front bench as bad.

    EU workers are not going to blame their own side, they will blame the Brits. Indeed it will make any post No Deal discussions very difficult.
    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,905
    In this case we're overthinking Dominic Cummings' article saying it's too late to stop No Deal, I believe.

    His purpose is to head off a Tory rebellion against government policy. More or less what he says.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    IanB2 said:

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    I think it could end up as

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    VONC

    GE sometime in 2020

    Technically after a VONC the others would be failed VOCs
    Well it could see saw .. that's the point.. no one wants a GE just now, the outcome is too clouded
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,393
    Roger said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Your continued slurring of the elderly and people from northern towns and cities is a most unpleasant feature of the site. You should take a long hard look in the mirror at yourself perhaps. You make me ashamed to have voted Remain - except that I know most people do not share your prejidice and bigotry.
    Felix. If it wasn't that you live in Spain I'd tell you to take a holiday!
    You are a big reason why the 2016 vote went the way it did. A sneering, self-impotant, entitled moron who thinks you are somehow better than other people because you live in Europe. which you see through totally rose tinted lenses based on the rahter rich environment in which you live. You know as little about the real France as anywhere in northern England about which you pontificate so much.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,559

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    VONC

    GE

    Jezza

    Socialism
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    Just interested how you see the pathway to this and the time scale starting from the first week in September
    OK, I think it will take until early October before it is 100% clear that Bozo is going for No Deal. Then we have the VONC. Jezza spends a week failing to get the backing of parliament, but behind the scenes the grown ups have worked out a plan for a GONU with only one purpose. Bozo then has to advise the Queen to appoint Ken C, Hilary B or whoever as PM. A vote of confidence passes in the House after the new PM says they will Revoke. The next day we Revoke.

    PM then asks MPs to vote to dissolve parliament, which they do. GE before Christmas.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:


    It is quite amazing that the Brexiteer faithful are so insistent that it would be impossible for the Queen to appoint a prime minister who would go on to lose a confidence vote. Given that in the circumstances we are talking about, that would have just happened!

    People surely remember the speculation that Johnson would never become PM in the first place because the Queen could not be advised that he would have the support of the House. Still, he did become PM, and that certainly wasn't because his position in the House of Commons strengthened. If parliament hadn't risen almost immediately, he might have been VONCed by now. He may well be VONCed immediately after parliament returns.

    Of course the circumstances were different. He was elected leader of the largest party in the Commons. But the principle is identical. And that party doesn't have a majority, and a number of its MPs are strongly opposed to No Deal.

    And the other point is that - as the briefing posted by Nick Palmer last night shows - unless there is a clear-cut declaration by a group of parties commanding a majority - the procedure by which the Queen would be advised becomes very informal and very uncertain. How many times over the last few months have the results of votes on Brexit been reliably predictable? And even if there were a clear-cut declaration by a group of parties nominally commanding a majority, could anyone be sure that nominal command would translate into an actual majority when the motion was put? Between the Queen appointing Corbyn prime minister and the motion being put, necessarily a government would have to be formed, and the scope for MPs in an exceptionally fragmented hung parliament to change their minds after that process is clear - not just over Brexit, but over any number of other issues.

    I'm afraid that as usual, we have the Brexiteer faithful trumpeting as a fact what they would _like_ to be true, and losing contact with reality in the process.

    But in any case, what is crystal clear is that _if_ the Queen _did_ ask Corbyn to form a government, then he would be prime minister, not Johnson. And even if that government subsequently failed to win a confidence vote, he would remain prime minister throughout the subsequent election campaign, not Johnson.

    There is nothing to stop someone else having a go next
    Well, there's time: the FTPA clock is still running down. And pragmatism: if not the leader of the largest party or the leader of the second-largest party then who is next? And what would their programme be besides asking for an extension which Jeremy Corbyn, as prime minister, is already doing as slowly as possible since he too has a functioning calendar?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    VONC

    GE

    Jezza

    Socialism
    LOL
  • So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    Just interested how you see the pathway to this and the time scale starting from the first week in September
    OK, I think it will take until early October before it is 100% clear that Bozo is going for No Deal. Then we have the VONC. Jezza spends a week failing to get the backing of parliament, but behind the scenes the grown ups have worked out a plan for a GONU with only one purpose. Bozo then has to advise the Queen to appoint Ken C, Hilary B or whoever as PM. A vote of confidence passes in the House after the new PM says they will Revoke. The next day we Revoke.

    PM then asks MPs to vote to dissolve parliament, which they do. GE before Christmas.
    Thank you
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    VONC

    GE

    Jezza

    Socialism
    What about Brexit?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    Just interested how you see the pathway to this and the time scale starting from the first week in September
    OK, I think it will take until early October before it is 100% clear that Bozo is going for No Deal. Then we have the VONC. Jezza spends a week failing to get the backing of parliament, but behind the scenes the grown ups have worked out a plan for a GONU with only one purpose. Bozo then has to advise the Queen to appoint Ken C, Hilary B or whoever as PM. A vote of confidence passes in the House after the new PM says they will Revoke. The next day we Revoke.

    PM then asks MPs to vote to dissolve parliament, which they do. GE before Christmas.
    Why would they revoke? That creates an election which could legitimately be Tories + Brexit against everyone else.

    And you need to keep Nigel away from Boris otherwise Boris is likely to win..

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,811
    In my doubtful role as Commons procedural specialist, I'll offer an answer to Alastair's final paragraph. In that situation, Johnson and his Ministers, specifically the Leader of the House, continue in office until an alternative commanding majority support is found, or 2 weeks expires, whichever happens first, although he is not allowed to introduce anything controversial in that time. As such, he continues to control the agenda, unless Parliament takes control of it through emergency legislation of the Boles-Grieve-Cooper kind.

    The ability to do that depends on a suitable instrument coming along for the insurgency to use. The goodwill of the Speaker probably guarantees this - he will regardless of personal preference (which will be sympathetic anyway) wish to give the House the opportunity to express its opinion. I therefore do not think that Johnson can rely on being able to bluff his way through 14 days if there is a majority consensus to do something else.

    If.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I do not accept that at all and politicians across the EU especially in Ireland, Germany and France are going to become the subject of fury as so many of their citizens lose their jobs and the EU goes into recession.

    In many ways your views are part of the problem.

    Hero worship the EU - attack the UK

    Just as ERG etc are

    Hero worship UK - attack the EU
    No hero worship, just recognition that we have Bozo the clown as PM and a cabinet of numpties (Liz Truss interview the other day!). We have a government of mendacious bullshitters, and an opposition front bench as bad.

    EU workers are not going to blame their own side, they will blame the Brits. Indeed it will make any post No Deal discussions very difficult.
    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes
    No, EU voters support their governments position, there is no significant dissent, even in the mosr affected country, Ireland.

    They will blame the foreigners (in this case us) for their troubles, same as we do.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,559

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    VONC

    GE

    Jezza

    Socialism
    What about Brexit?
    Who cares Brexit is boring now but Jezza elected on 2nd Ref I expect.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    edited August 2019



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. NorthWales, aye. There's an alarming prospect of the far right rising (with the far left already squatting on Labour's front bench).
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    edited August 2019

    In my doubtful role as Commons procedural specialist, I'll offer an answer to Alastair's final paragraph. In that situation, Johnson and his Ministers, specifically the Leader of the House, continue in office until an alternative commanding majority support is found, or 2 weeks expires, whichever happens first, although he is not allowed to introduce anything controversial in that time. As such, he continues to control the agenda, unless Parliament takes control of it through emergency legislation of the Boles-Grieve-Cooper kind.

    The ability to do that depends on a suitable instrument coming along for the insurgency to use. The goodwill of the Speaker probably guarantees this - he will regardless of personal preference (which will be sympathetic anyway) wish to give the House the opportunity to express its opinion. I therefore do not think that Johnson can rely on being able to bluff his way through 14 days if there is a majority consensus to do something else.

    If.

    So I am correct in saying that business will continue during the 14 days - it's not just a no confidence debate as they try to find a Government...

    PM question time when the PM hasn't got the confidence of the Parliament will be fun to watch..
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019

    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



    Just interested how you see the pathway to this and the time scale starting from the first week in September
    OK, I think it will take until early October before it is 100% clear that Bozo is going for No Deal. Then we have the VONC. Jezza spends a week failing to get the backing of parliament, but behind the scenes the grown ups have worked out a plan for a GONU with only one purpose. Bozo then has to advise the Queen to appoint Ken C, Hilary B or whoever as PM. A vote of confidence passes in the House after the new PM says they will Revoke. The next day we Revoke.

    PM then asks MPs to vote to dissolve parliament, which they do. GE before Christmas.
    Boris is not prime minister in this scenario. Jeremy Corbyn is. You would need Boris to recommend KC or any other prospective GONU PM before he recommends Corbyn, and it is hard to see that happening as it would end Boris's career whereas a short-lived JC premiership would not (eta: and is constitutionally outrageous). More likely is JC slowly asks for an extension and passes a confidence vote on that basis.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited August 2019
    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    I am retired but I accept EU citizens are angry with us. However, reports from Ireland show increasing anger at Varadkar and it is too simplistic to think that EU countries will not come under pressure as tens of thousands lose their jobs and markets
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,416

    Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Of course, economics are not the priority of the EU project. How could anybody think that?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. eek, if we leave with no deal the EU will blame the UK.

    Most of those in the UK will blame the EU. Those who like the EU will blame Boris/the Conservatives/evil xenophobic hateful bastard Leave voters who didn't love the EU enough.

    There's a certain strand of particularly leftist thinking that does love bashing Britain.

    That doesn't, of course, diminish the incompetence of May and Boris. Or MPs generally, who are mostly pro-EU yet who are also shocked and appalled to discover that voting to leave the EU, and against a deal (thrice), means we're on course to leave the EU with no deal. Whoever could've predicted this turn of events?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,559
    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Spot on.

    BigG is the Welsh equivalent of the Little Englander mindset whatever that's called.

    We are a complete irrelevance to the EU in the grand scheme of things compared to the EU project.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    In my doubtful role as Commons procedural specialist, I'll offer an answer to Alastair's final paragraph. In that situation, Johnson and his Ministers, specifically the Leader of the House, continue in office until an alternative commanding majority support is found, or 2 weeks expires, whichever happens first, although he is not allowed to introduce anything controversial in that time. As such, he continues to control the agenda, unless Parliament takes control of it through emergency legislation of the Boles-Grieve-Cooper kind.

    The ability to do that depends on a suitable instrument coming along for the insurgency to use. The goodwill of the Speaker probably guarantees this - he will regardless of personal preference (which will be sympathetic anyway) wish to give the House the opportunity to express its opinion. I therefore do not think that Johnson can rely on being able to bluff his way through 14 days if there is a majority consensus to do something else.

    If.

    That sounds reasonable, as there’s always a PM and always a government, until one PM resigns and HMQ asks someone else to form a government.

    I guess the question is if it’s possible for Parliament to debate anything else, in the time following a vote of no confidence in the government, except whether or not there is confidence in the government? If the answer to that question is somehow yes, then what is the mechanism by which binding legislation can be forced through against the wishes of the government?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    Alastair's excellent piece shows up yet another deficiency of the truly wretched FTPA. Section 2(4) of that Act requires a motion to be passed: "“That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.” There are then 14 days in which Parliament can pass a motion in terms of subsection (5) “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government” and thus prevent an early election.

    The Act is silent on what happens in the interim. I think that the drafters anticipated that HMG would be the same government on both events but that is not a requirement. My assumption is that the government would remain in office over that period seeking to achieve the second motion. I don't see how anyone else gets to take over at that point. Of course if a new grouping clearly has the majority in the House it may ask that it be nominated as the "government" for the purposes of the second motion. Once again it is not clear how this would happen. The Speaker may permit a motion to come before the House asking that the new grouping be nominated the government for the purposes of the motion but we would be making it up as we go along.

    Parliament can also pass a motion for an early election but that requires a 2/3 majority. Since this House can't get a positive majority for pretty much anything that seems an unlikely outcome unless both the major parties conspire to achieve it.

    In 1979 Parliament did some tidying up after the VoNC and Callaghan, IIRC, remained PM for the campaign. I expect Boris would do likewise unless a new grouping manages to seize control.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Mr. eek, if we leave with no deal the EU will blame the UK.

    Most of those in the UK will blame the EU. Those who like the EU will blame Boris/the Conservatives/evil xenophobic hateful bastard Leave voters who didn't love the EU enough.

    There's a certain strand of particularly leftist thinking that does love bashing Britain.

    That doesn't, of course, diminish the incompetence of May and Boris. Or MPs generally, who are mostly pro-EU yet who are also shocked and appalled to discover that voting to leave the EU, and against a deal (thrice), means we're on course to leave the EU with no deal. Whoever could've predicted this turn of events?

    Real patriots, whether of the left or right perennially complain that the country is going to the dogs and the wrong people are in charge. Being anti-government is very patriotic.
  • eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Spot on.

    BigG is the Welsh equivalent of the Little Englander mindset whatever that's called.

    We are a complete irrelevance to the EU in the grand scheme of things compared to the EU project.
    No such thing BJO. I am a democrat who supports TM deal which would have seen us leave and have an excellent relationship with the EU

    I reject no deal, dislike Little Englander's with contempt, am firmly pro the Union, and above everything passionate in my dislike of Corbyn and everything he represents
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    Betting Post

    F1: backed a couple of things, including Hamilton and Bottas to lead lap 1 (6 and 5, respectively). Verstappen's had ropey starts recently.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hungary-pre-race-2019.html

    Good call on the Mercs to lead the first lap. I’m also expecting the second running Mercedes to switch to a two-stop strategy with a very early pit stop, playing the team game against the lone Red Bull of Verstappen.

    Only one safety car in the support races so far, due to the track being covered in oil by a blown F2 engine. No SC is the more likely option for the F1 race.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,933
    Dura_Ace said:

    Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Of course, economics are not the priority of the EU project. How could anybody think that?
    People who joined the European Economic Community?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    TGOHF said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    If you'd worked in education you wouldn't need convincing.

    AIUI, his reputation largely rests on his work for the Leave campaign plus, as Dr Y, indicates some highly questionable work at Education.
    Those upset in education were in the supply side.

    Not sure that's entirely the case. The new "big fat" maths courses at GCSE and A Level were a DC obsession, and they're really not popular. They don't really work as exams, either; there are so many questions designed to be hard for grade 7/8/9 candidates, that the mark for a grade 4 pass is absurdly low.
    Gove and Cummings also continued selling off school playing fields, and left behind them a shortage of school places. Remember too that David Cameron was forced to move Gove from Education because he had become so unpopular with parents.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    edited August 2019
    Mr. Owls, the British mindset?

    Mr. Sandpit, brave trying a two stop strategy. Passing's a bugger. The Mercedes might have sufficient advantage against most teams to try it, but the Ferraris and Gasly could be tricky.

    Also, No Safety Car is a good bet, I think. 2.37 on Ladbrokes.

    Edited extra bit: that was one I seriously considered and decided against just because there was too much for me to back everything.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited August 2019
    Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    This is the key. While a lot of leaver plans rely on the EU doing what they want when politically they have no reason to do so (whether it is actually in the EU's interest to do so is disputed but irrelevant to the politics now), a lot of remainer plans are as well, or on the assumption that the opponents of remain will not be as difficult in parliament as the opponents of leave. Granted, remain have an advantage in that they have Bercow on side, but a messy parliamentary situation is not one conducive to easy resolution with the EU.

    It's one reason so many leavers have gone over to no deal, a path that is entirely within the power of the UK, and it's why remainers may need to contemplate their own option which is entirely within the power of the UK, Revoke. Clearly that's not the preferred method, but if they want to guarantee we dont leave they may have little choice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    Sandpit said:

    In my doubtful role as Commons procedural specialist, I'll offer an answer to Alastair's final paragraph. In that situation, Johnson and his Ministers, specifically the Leader of the House, continue in office until an alternative commanding majority support is found, or 2 weeks expires, whichever happens first, although he is not allowed to introduce anything controversial in that time. As such, he continues to control the agenda, unless Parliament takes control of it through emergency legislation of the Boles-Grieve-Cooper kind.

    The ability to do that depends on a suitable instrument coming along for the insurgency to use. The goodwill of the Speaker probably guarantees this - he will regardless of personal preference (which will be sympathetic anyway) wish to give the House the opportunity to express its opinion. I therefore do not think that Johnson can rely on being able to bluff his way through 14 days if there is a majority consensus to do something else.

    If.

    That sounds reasonable, as there’s always a PM and always a government, until one PM resigns and HMQ asks someone else to form a government.

    I guess the question is if it’s possible for Parliament to debate anything else, in the time following a vote of no confidence in the government, except whether or not there is confidence in the government? If the answer to that question is somehow yes, then what is the mechanism by which binding legislation can be forced through against the wishes of the government?
    I seriously doubt that as a practical matter it could. Given the timescale involved, and the inevitable fragility and conflicting interests of any possible alternative majority in the Commons, the only effective actions would be simple executive ones - either a request for an extension (for referendum or GE), or simple revocation of A50.

    There are problems with those options, but they do not begin to approach the difficulty of cobbling together unprecedented procedural mechanisms in order for Parliament to pass undefined legislation of uncertain outcome, without control of the executive.

    Much of the arguments around this are, I think, just displacement activity.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.

    Isn't that the problem at the moment - no one knows how things will play out they only know what they want the end position to be.

    An extension and second referendum is a better bet than revoke though - revoke will annoy people a second referendum with a single defined leaving the EU end state is a far better plan..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I agree with you they dont seem to want to blink, but surely we can agree that a policy designed to avoid a hard border being the main sticking point and causing no deal and a hard border is pretty stupid?

    More odiocy on our side perhaps but i struggle to see how even with it being our fault something causing what its supposed to prevent is a sign of competence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Dura_Ace said:

    Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Of course, economics are not the priority of the EU project. How could anybody think that?
    People who joined the European Economic Community?
    No country has ever joined the EEC alone because the political institutions merged before it expanded.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merger_Treaty
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,905
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....

    edit? afterthought: Maybe it's also the only way to sell a subsequent soft Brexit (assuming a favourable GE) that Bozo probably wants; after nearly losing Brexit altogether MPs might be more amendable to compromise (or he gets a large enough majority)
    I think his policy is to co-opt Brexit Party supporters so the Conservatives get more votes than an enervated Labour party. He does this by matching the Brexit Party step for step, so supporters of that party have no reason not to switch.

    And that's the extent of his policy.

    Problem is, he can't actually be the same as the BP because he has to deliver something and they don't. Farage will hang around until a compromise like the extension you refer to happens and then will pounce.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    This is the key. While a lot of leaver plans rely on the EU doing what they want when politically they have no reason to do so (whether it is actually in the EU's interest to do so is disputed but irrelevant to the politics now), a lot of remainer plans are as well, or on the assumption that the opponents of remain will not be as difficult in parliament as the opponents of leave. Granted, remain have an advantage in that they have Bercow on side, but a messy parliamentary situation is not one conducive to easy resolution with the EU.

    It's one reason so many leavers have gone over to no deal, a path that is entirely within the power of the UK, and it's why remainers may need to contemplate their own option which is entirely within the power of the UK, Revoke. Clearly that's not the preferred method, but if they want to guarantee we dont leave they may have little choice.
    Which again argues for a temporary PM, whose only mandate is to ask for an extension, and failing that, revoke.
    Wether there is a majority in the Commons for either of those things (particularly revoke), is questionable. A majority opposing no deal is a given; a majority for any practical means to prevent it far less so.
  • Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    No - 6 - 7 weeks to organise is needed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238
    What's the solution?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    eek said:

    Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.

    An extension and second referendum is a better bet than revoke though - revoke will annoy people a second referendum with a single defined leaving the EU end state is a far better plan..
    I agree. I think Revoke is the least-likely of all the main scenarios at the moment. However much I might like it, it would infuriate too many people both outwith and within Parliament. I guess we could be simplistic and suggest that the main options, in no particular order and not mutually exclusive, are:

    1. No Deal

    2. VONC

    3. Extension

    4. People's Vote

    5. General Election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    edited August 2019
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I agree with you they dont seem to want to blink, but surely we can agree that a policy designed to avoid a hard border being the main sticking point and causing no deal and a hard border is pretty stupid?

    More odiocy on our side perhaps but i struggle to see how even with it being our fault something causing what its supposed to prevent is a sign of competence.
    A fair point, but it is an intransigence no one, except for us Brits, will blame them for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....

    edit? afterthought: Maybe it's also the only way to sell a subsequent soft Brexit (assuming a favourable GE) that Bozo probably wants; after nearly losing Brexit altogether MPs might be more amendable to compromise (or he gets a large enough majority)
    I think his policy is to co-opt Brexit Party supporters to be bigger than Labour individually. He does this by matching the Brexit Party step for step, so supporters of that party have no reason not to switch.

    And that's the extent of his policy.

    Problem is, he can't actually be the same as the BP because he has to deliver something and they don't. Farage will hang around until a compromise like the extension you refer to happens and then will pounce.
    According to the Tim Shipman piece they are banking on uniting the Brexit vote and hoping the Remain vote is split between Labour and the Lib Dems. They’re making the familiar mistake of thinking that all UKIP/Brexit Party voters can be added to the Tory column just by being pure on Brexit (which is now impossible for the Tories anyway).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    No - 6 - 7 weeks to organise is needed
    Who says?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    There are by law (FTPA again, Nick Clegg has a lot to answer for with this one!) a minimum of 25 working days between dissolution and election. Combined with the 14 day window and a day between a VoC being called and the debate happening, we’re already a day short of time for a 24th October election - so it requires Parliament to be recalled over the summer to get an election before Brexit day.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    I doubt that would meet the ECJ's requirement that it is in line with the respective country's constitutional requirements (Parliament would normally instruct the executive to do something not do it directly itself). Also the "silly buggers" condition they included in the judgement.

    But I'm sure they could be leant on to give the desired outcome
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Did you know that under the FTPA a General Election doesn't have to be held on a Thursday?

    Bet you all did, but it's news to me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404
    Rubbish , usual SNP hating rubbish from you. It is down to the fact that they are crap.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    edited August 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Betting Post

    F1: backed a couple of things, including Hamilton and Bottas to lead lap 1 (6 and 5, respectively). Verstappen's had ropey starts recently.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hungary-pre-race-2019.html

    Good call on the Mercs to lead the first lap. I’m also expecting the second running Mercedes to switch to a two-stop strategy with a very early pit stop, playing the team game against the lone Red Bull of Verstappen.

    Only one safety car in the support races so far, due to the track being covered in oil by a blown F2 engine. No SC is the more likely option for the F1 race.
    No, I think they’ll just go for a plain undercut/overcut strategy.
    If both Mercedes have the race pace, it’s a winning one. If Bottas is in front of Hamilton, but slower, then it won’t be.
    That is assuming one of them doesn’t get ahead on lap1.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    I doubt that would meet the ECJ's requirement that it is in line with the respective country's constitutional requirements (Parliament would normally instruct the executive to do something not do it directly itself). Also the "silly buggers" condition they included in the judgement.

    But I'm sure they could be leant on to give the desired outcome
    The “silly buggers” condition was in the AG’s opinion, not the final judgment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,973

    Mr. Owls, the British mindset?

    Mr. Sandpit, brave trying a two stop strategy. Passing's a bugger. The Mercedes might have sufficient advantage against most teams to try it, but the Ferraris and Gasly could be tricky.

    Also, No Safety Car is a good bet, I think. 2.37 on Ladbrokes.

    Edited extra bit: that was one I seriously considered and decided against just because there was too much for me to back everything.

    And for those of us wanting to watch *real* racing, the BTCC is on ITV4 all afternoon, from Snettrton circuit. ;)
  • Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    No - 6 - 7 weeks to organise is needed
    Who says?
    If was discussed on the media a while ago

    If you can find a definitive voice giving a minimum time please do so
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited August 2019

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    It must be ghastly for you to have your Sunday morning ruined by having to listen to opposing viewpoints.

    Perhaps turn on the BBC for some respite ?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404

    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Their pension funds have rocketed up, because weak Sterling appreciates the value of the foreign earnings that make up 75% of the FTSE. It should in theory drive domestic inflation due to more expensive imports, but for whatever reason that doesn't seem to be happening yet.
    Quite right, my pension fund has gone up 6% in the last month alone.
    Probably went down more previously in other months.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    This is the key. While a lot of leaver plans rely on the EU doing what they want when politically they have no reason to do so (whether it is actually in the EU's interest to do so is disputed but irrelevant to the politics now), a lot of remainer plans are as well, or on the assumption that the opponents of remain will not be as difficult in parliament as the opponents of leave. Granted, remain have an advantage in that they have Bercow on side, but a messy parliamentary situation is not one conducive to easy resolution with the EU.

    It's one reason so many leavers have gone over to no deal, a path that is entirely within the power of the UK, and it's why remainers may need to contemplate their own option which is entirely within the power of the UK, Revoke. Clearly that's not the preferred method, but if they want to guarantee we dont leave they may have little choice.
    Which again argues for a temporary PM, whose only mandate is to ask for an extension, and failing that, revoke.
    Wether there is a majority in the Commons for either of those things (particularly revoke), is questionable. A majority opposing no deal is a given; a majority for any practical means to prevent it far less so.
    Although don’t be surprised if the EU refuse an extension as there would still be no clear resolution in sight. Forcing the no deal/revoke issue to a head.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    eek said:

    Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.

    Isn't that the problem at the moment - no one knows how things will play out they only know what they want the end position to be.

    An extension and second referendum is a better bet than revoke though - revoke will annoy people a second referendum with a single defined leaving the EU end state is a far better plan..
    A second referendum is almost impossible to pass, it’s a very complex piece of legislation that requires extensive consultation, it would take months of Parliamentary time even if there were a majority for it and the Lords were obliging.
  • A great header Alastair which provides comfort for us politically homeless types.

    Its a bit like the realisation the WOPR computer reaches at the end of War Games - "The only way to win is not to play". There are very few routes through this for Johnson's government.

    I absolutely can see a scenario where an early election motion is passed early September leading to a pre-Brexit election which will deliver God know what as a result. However, with a strong likelihood of such a motion failing to pass or not appearing or whatever, what happens when that window closes at the end of the 1st full week of September will be fascinating to observe.

    I genuinely think we will see MPs panic. Past the point of no return, but with the need to do *something* that is when the previously impossible becomes possible. And the impossible is that the parliamentary majority against No Deal asserts itself and takes control.

    I can still see the scenario where the Jezbollah death cult sits alongside the ERG and the Shagites in opposition to an emergency national government voting with them. At which point the cult will scream abuse at the "Tories" in Labour ranks voting with the Tories in government whist the Jeremy votes with Baker and Mogg...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    I'm starting to think it may not matter. Thinking through the steps from my post earlier:-

    1) Parliament must get control of the agenda (that's logical because previously Parliament was prorogued which isn't the case anymore)
    2) Parliament equally must be able to create bills that impact the budget as there won't be a Government which means while they can't force an extension through when there is a Government (as its a budget issue) they should be able to do it then.

    Which means we may not actually need a GoNU, it's possible that Boris could be legally forced into asking to extend or revoke within the 14 day period. and that solves a lot of problems for a lot of people as Boris is forced to ask for an extension but can blame others for it.
    Surely the existing government would remain in place on the non-controversial decision basis?

    I don't think Parliament can take direct control of budget issues.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238

    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Spot on.

    BigG is the Welsh equivalent of the Little Englander mindset whatever that's called.

    We are a complete irrelevance to the EU in the grand scheme of things compared to the EU project.
    Then it would be in their interest to bend on something to get a deal through, otherwise we may well remain and as a bitter and reluctant and embarrassed member cause all manner of grief.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sandpit said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    There are by law (FTPA again, Nick Clegg has a lot to answer for with this one!) a minimum of 25 working days between dissolution and election. Combined with the 14 day window and a day between a VoC being called and the debate happening, we’re already a day short of time for a 24th October election - so it requires Parliament to be recalled over the summer to get an election before Brexit day.
    Ah ok.

    But, forgive me for pressing this, if after a VONC there is then a 2/3rds vote for a GE the 14 day window ceases to apply? In other words, can't Parliament circumvent the 14 day FTPA by going straight to the country? If they had this all in place they could dissolve on 4th September and hold a General Election as early as:

    Sunday 6th October or if they really want a Thursday then the 10th.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited August 2019
    Just heard a paper reviewer on Sky refer to a BMG poll that states 46% of the public will support no deal exit if the EU fail to negotiate

    Does anyone have a link to this poll as it seems very high
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238
    Charles said:



    eek said:


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    I'm starting to think it may not matter. Thinking through the steps from my post earlier:-

    1) Parliament must get control of the agenda (that's logical because previously Parliament was prorogued which isn't the case anymore)
    2) Parliament equally must be able to create bills that impact the budget as there won't be a Government which means while they can't force an extension through when there is a Government (as its a budget issue) they should be able to do it then.

    Which means we may not actually need a GoNU, it's possible that Boris could be legally forced into asking to extend or revoke within the 14 day period. and that solves a lot of problems for a lot of people as Boris is forced to ask for an extension but can blame others for it.
    Surely the existing government would remain in place on the non-controversial decision basis?

    I don't think Parliament can take direct control of budget issues.
    Bercow would allow it.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    440 people need to vote for an election - abstaining is the equivalent of voting against and given the lack of agenda for the 1st week in September making yourself busy somewhere close to London is probably the most sensible plan for MPs in early September.

    It's actually better to work backwards so assuming October 31st is all important.

    Firstly elections occur on a Thursday so the dates are October 31st, 24th, 17th, 10th...

    A new parliament takes just under 2 weeks or so between the election and a Queens speech and ideally you want that to occur before October 31st so you need an election on October 17th latest and ideally the 10th.

    Now the FTPA insists on 25 working days between the vote and the election date so (thankfully there are no bank holidays in September)..

    October 17th -> Wednesday 18th September
    October 10th -> Wednesday 11th September
    October 3rd -> Wednesday 4th September

    And I'm not 100% sure that's correct it may need to be the Tuesday not the Wednesday if other legalise is required beyond just the vote.

    A VoNC adds 2 weeks to the timetable. So for a VoNC

    Wednesday 4th -> October 17th
    Wednesday 11th -> October 24th
    Wednesday 18th -> October 31st
    Wednesday 25th -> November 17th.
  • Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.

    The FTPA is an excellent piece of legislation. We are in the mess in we are in now because May dishonoured it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Just heard a paper reviewer on Sky refer to a BMG poll that states 46% of the public will support no deal exit if the EU fail to negotiate

    Does anyone have a link to this poll as it seems very high

    its a poll.. trust it at your peril
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.

    Isn't that the problem at the moment - no one knows how things will play out they only know what they want the end position to be.

    An extension and second referendum is a better bet than revoke though - revoke will annoy people a second referendum with a single defined leaving the EU end state is a far better plan..
    A second referendum is almost impossible to pass, it’s a very complex piece of legislation that requires extensive consultation, it would take months of Parliamentary time even if there were a majority for it and the Lords were obliging.
    No risk that Grieve and co would just reintroduce the last referendum act with the dates changed? Its a different circumstance and blockage would be attempted but as a justification to ram it through quickly with help of the speaker?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited August 2019

    Just heard a paper reviewer on Sky refer to a BMG poll that states 46% of the public will support no deal exit if the EU fail to negotiate

    Does anyone have a link to this poll as it seems very high

    its a poll.. trust it at your peril
    I agree but it does seem high. I have not seen the context of the question either
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TGOHF said:



    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    It must be ghastly for you to have your Sunday morning ruined by having to listen to opposing viewpoints.

    Perhaps turn on the BBC for some respite ?

    I like 'opposing' viewpoints. I just don't like the repetitive ranting of the two who bang a gong and add little thought to the normally high standard of discussion on here.

    That point below about the People's Vote: my point was that Parliament could pass a law to 'have' a People's Vote and then take time, say until Christmas, to decide the mechanics and timescale in conjunction with the Electoral Commission.
  • Sandpit said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    There are by law (FTPA again, Nick Clegg has a lot to answer for with this one!) a minimum of 25 working days between dissolution and election. Combined with the 14 day window and a day between a VoC being called and the debate happening, we’re already a day short of time for a 24th October election - so it requires Parliament to be recalled over the summer to get an election before Brexit day.
    Ah ok.

    But, forgive me for pressing this, if after a VONC there is then a 2/3rds vote for a GE the 14 day window ceases to apply? In other words, can't Parliament circumvent the 14 day FTPA by going straight to the country? If they had this all in place they could dissolve on 4th September and hold a General Election as early as:

    Sunday 6th October or if they really want a Thursday then the 10th.
    No
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    nichomar said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    This is the key. While a lot of leaver plans rely on the EU doing what they want when politically they have no reason to do so (whether it is actually in the EU's interest to do so is disputed but irrelevant to the politics now), a lot of remainer plans are as well, or on the assumption that the opponents of remain will not be as difficult in parliament as the opponents of leave. Granted, remain have an advantage in that they have Bercow on side, but a messy parliamentary situation is not one conducive to easy resolution with the EU.

    It's one reason so many leavers have gone over to no deal, a path that is entirely within the power of the UK, and it's why remainers may need to contemplate their own option which is entirely within the power of the UK, Revoke. Clearly that's not the preferred method, but if they want to guarantee we dont leave they may have little choice.
    Which again argues for a temporary PM, whose only mandate is to ask for an extension, and failing that, revoke.
    Wether there is a majority in the Commons for either of those things (particularly revoke), is questionable. A majority opposing no deal is a given; a majority for any practical means to prevent it far less so.
    Although don’t be surprised if the EU refuse an extension as there would still be no clear resolution in sight. Forcing the no deal/revoke issue to a head.
    I can't see the EU willingly forcing the decision towards No Deal..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238

    Did you know that under the FTPA a General Election doesn't have to be held on a Thursday?

    Bet you all did, but it's news to me.

    I didn't know they had to be on a Thursday now, just that that is the convention and so assumed to always be the day.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. Jessop, after Hockenheim that is a scallywaggish comment!
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    Just heard a paper reviewer on Sky refer to a BMG poll that states 46% of the public will support no deal exit if the EU fail to negotiate

    Does anyone have a link to this poll as it seems very high

    its a poll.. trust it at your peril
    It's a poll - it depends on the actual question that was asked (and the questions leading up to that question which they not be so willing to reveal)...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404
    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Agree complete laughing stock , Europeans cannot believe what is happening and think UK has gone mad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    edited August 2019

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    There are by law (FTPA again, Nick Clegg has a lot to answer for with this one!) a minimum of 25 working days between dissolution and election. Combined with the 14 day window and a day between a VoC being called and the debate happening, we’re already a day short of time for a 24th October election - so it requires Parliament to be recalled over the summer to get an election before Brexit day.
    Ah ok.

    But, forgive me for pressing this, if after a VONC there is then a 2/3rds vote for a GE the 14 day window ceases to apply? In other words, can't Parliament circumvent the 14 day FTPA by going straight to the country? If they had this all in place they could dissolve on 4th September and hold a General Election as early as:

    Sunday 6th October or if they really want a Thursday then the 10th.
    For that to work, the government would need to propose the election, or another government to appear immediately with a clear majority to propose it. Johnson won’t resign until it’s clear that someone else has a majority. I don’t see how there’s a majority to install Corbyn and, much as some people wish it to be true, there aren’t several hundred Lab and Con MPs willing to be expelled from their parties to form some other government against the wishes of Johnson and Corbyn.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    nichomar said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    This is the key. While a lot of leaver plans rely on the EU doing what they want when politically they have no reason to do so (whether it is actually in the EU's interest to do so is disputed but irrelevant to the politics now), a lot of remainer plans are as well, or on the assumption that the opponents of remain will not be as difficult in parliament as the opponents of leave. Granted, remain have an advantage in that they have Bercow on side, but a messy parliamentary situation is not one conducive to easy resolution with the EU.

    It's one reason so many leavers have gone over to no deal, a path that is entirely within the power of the UK, and it's why remainers may need to contemplate their own option which is entirely within the power of the UK, Revoke. Clearly that's not the preferred method, but if they want to guarantee we dont leave they may have little choice.
    Which again argues for a temporary PM, whose only mandate is to ask for an extension, and failing that, revoke.
    Wether there is a majority in the Commons for either of those things (particularly revoke), is questionable. A majority opposing no deal is a given; a majority for any practical means to prevent it far less so.
    Although don’t be surprised if the EU refuse an extension as there would still be no clear resolution in sight. Forcing the no deal/revoke issue to a head.
    Of course.
    Though I think it possible the EU might grant an extension for a second referendum (they must recognise as we do how much of a lottery a GE would be), any temporary administration would have to agree in advance whether to have revoke as a nuclear option.
    Revoke would have to be decided on beforehand. It would, naturally, be extremely divisive, and I doubt there’s a majority in the Commons prepared publicly to back it, even if there is one which wishes for it.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2019

    Just heard a paper reviewer on Sky refer to a BMG poll that states 46% of the public will support no deal exit if the EU fail to negotiate

    Does anyone have a link to this poll as it seems very high

    its a poll.. trust it at your peril
    I agree but it does seem high. I have not seen the context of the question either
    Indeed, it depends on how the question was framed..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,096
    The (excellent) header could be right - Johnson is angling to be brought down so he can fight a snap election against the assorted unpatriotic Quislings and stir up the Ignorami sufficiently to storm it. I see the logic. It's close to compelling.

    But I sense not. It is slightly too 'conspiracy theory' for me.

    I think (albeit with less than unshakable confidence) that he will be agreeing an extension into 2020 and trying to pass a Deal.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    kle4 said:

    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Spot on.

    BigG is the Welsh equivalent of the Little Englander mindset whatever that's called.

    We are a complete irrelevance to the EU in the grand scheme of things compared to the EU project.
    Then it would be in their interest to bend on something to get a deal through, otherwise we may well remain and as a bitter and reluctant and embarrassed member cause all manner of grief.
    The EU have a lot of those already (Hungary, Bulgaria...) one more really won't make much difference..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:



    EU workers will hold the EU and their governments to blame no matter that you could not have any critism of the wonderful EU in your eyes

    I take it you don't work in Europe and therefore aren't seeing it from the European viewpoint (I do weekly and spend a lot of time chatting to people in airport and hotel lounges)..

    We are literally a laughing stock at the moment and most people cannot understand how Boris has become the new PM even when you explain it to them.

    When we leave without a deal everyone will know who to blame and trust me it won't be the EU nor local governments...
    Agree complete laughing stock , Europeans cannot believe what is happening and think UK has gone mad.
    They are not wrong.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    eek said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    440 people need to vote for an election - abstaining is the equivalent of voting against and given the lack of agenda for the 1st week in September making yourself busy somewhere close to London is probably the most sensible plan for MPs in early September.

    It's actually better to work backwards so assuming October 31st is all important.

    Firstly elections occur on a Thursday so the dates are October 31st, 24th, 17th, 10th...

    A new parliament takes just under 2 weeks or so between the election and a Queens speech and ideally you want that to occur before October 31st so you need an election on October 17th latest and ideally the 10th.

    Now the FTPA insists on 25 working days between the vote and the election date so (thankfully there are no bank holidays in September)..

    October 17th -> Wednesday 18th September
    October 10th -> Wednesday 11th September
    October 3rd -> Wednesday 4th September

    And I'm not 100% sure that's correct it may need to be the Tuesday not the Wednesday if other legalise is required beyond just the vote.

    A VoNC adds 2 weeks to the timetable. So for a VoNC

    Wednesday 4th -> October 17th
    Wednesday 11th -> October 24th
    Wednesday 18th -> October 31st
    Wednesday 25th -> November 17th.
    Yes my point though is that if Parliament by-passes the FTPA after a VONC by voting for a General Election on a 2/3rds majority then the 14 days is defunct. I have no doubt that they would vote for a GE, especially under those circs with a hung parliament.

    The FTPA states that General Elections no longer need to occur on Thursdays.

    Thirdly, under the circs of getting an extension there's no need for a new PM to await a Queen's Speech. Soon as they're conferred PM by the Queen they can straight to Brussels and just do it.

    So I don't see the timescale impediments that Dominic Cummings and JRM are wishing
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....
    Yes, that's very interesting. The point made below earlier that we should remember for Boris it's all about power first, Brexit itself second, is pertinent here.

    If he goes for a General Election he really does risk losing. So you may well be right. They stoke it all up over the next 4 weeks to the point where Parliament is clearly going to VONC him and so he Extends Article 50 on the grounds that the nasty evil Parliament are opposing the will of the people.

    But the over-thinking point was a good one too. They're in a real bind.

    I know we're not supposed to invoke war metaphors but in situations like this historically leaders have often resorted to going to war against another country. That's always an option ...!
    With respect this is a very real crisis but reference to war is simply absurd
    Not really - wars usually occurred because of political pressure from one side made it inevitable.

    Heck WW1 occurred because the terms requested were intentionally so bad no country would accept them.
    Nah, it was the railways
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Your continued slurring of the elderly and people from northern towns and cities is a most unpleasant feature of the site. You should take a long hard look in the mirror at yourself perhaps. You make me ashamed to have voted Remain - except that I know most people do not share your prejidice and bigotry.
    Felix. If it wasn't that you live in Spain I'd tell you to take a holiday!
    You are a big reason why the 2016 vote went the way it did. A sneering, self-impotant, entitled moron who thinks you are somehow better than other people because you live in Europe. which you see through totally rose tinted lenses based on the rahter rich environment in which you live. You know as little about the real France as anywhere in northern England about which you pontificate so much.
    I'm finding this conversation bizarre. Anyone reading your post would think we Remainers had voted to separate ourselves from Hartlpudlians* not the other way round. You should go and see the documentary " Marianne and Leonard'. Get back a bit of the hippy spirit that took you away in the first place.

    Live and let live!

    *Generic term for Leavers. No offence to any geographical region intended
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,905
    edited August 2019
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Very good posts below by Sandpit and DavidL on the FTPA. That's two wretched legacies of David Cameron: Brexit & the FTPA.

    I think if the VONC succeeds then the HoC will, indeed, seize the agenda supported by the Speaker. To do what though? I guess what they could do, to end the stalemate, is 1. Vote to extend Article 50 and 2. Enact a People's Vote. Once achieved during the 14-days then someone could try and govern.

    I dunno. I'm making it up as much as Johnson.

    Isn't that the problem at the moment - no one knows how things will play out they only know what they want the end position to be.

    An extension and second referendum is a better bet than revoke though - revoke will annoy people a second referendum with a single defined leaving the EU end state is a far better plan..
    A second referendum is almost impossible to pass, it’s a very complex piece of legislation that requires extensive consultation, it would take months of Parliamentary time even if there were a majority for it and the Lords were obliging.
    There aren't any good outcomes for Brexit. More than that there aren't even any stable outcomes. As SOMETHING has to transpire, it makes can kicking to the greatest extent possible, the least unattractive thing to do.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone remind me what the minimum timescale would be for a GE? I don't agree about the Commons being unlikely to vote 2/3rds for one. So, suppose the VONC succeeds, during the 14 day cooling off period, or immediately thereafter, it's presumably also possible to enforce a 2/3rds vote for an election?

    My question, free of the Cummings guff, is how quickly might it happen under those circs? 3 weeks?

    So an election early October is still possible or even end September?

    There are by law (FTPA again, Nick Clegg has a lot to answer for with this one!) a minimum of 25 working days between dissolution and election. Combined with the 14 day window and a day between a VoC being called and the debate happening, we’re already a day short of time for a 24th October election - so it requires Parliament to be recalled over the summer to get an election before Brexit day.
    Ah ok.

    But, forgive me for pressing this, if after a VONC there is then a 2/3rds vote for a GE the 14 day window ceases to apply? In other words, can't Parliament circumvent the 14 day FTPA by going straight to the country? If they had this all in place they could dissolve on 4th September and hold a General Election as early as:

    Sunday 6th October or if they really want a Thursday then the 10th.
    For that to work, the government would need to propose the election, or another government to appear immediately with a clear majority to propose it.
    Does it actually say that in the FTPA? If Parliament seizes the agenda and passes a resolution to call an election, which it gets with a 2/3rd majority, then surely it's a done deal?

    JRM might hate it. I doubt the Speaker would.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,238
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is bligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
    I agree with you they dont seem to want to blink, but surely we can agree that a policy designed to avoid a hard border being the main sticking point and causing no deal and a hard border is pretty stupid?

    More odiocy on our side perhaps but i struggle to see how even with it being our fault something causing what its supposed to prevent is a sign of competence.
    A fair point, but it is an intransigence no one, except for us Brits, will blame them for.
    They might be, in historical textbooks years and years from now. But agreed, they wouldn't get much blame. People act sometimes like the EU and the various governments are not political like we are. So many no dealers reckon we'll rally against the dastardly EU for any hardship without considering they'll do the same against us.

    Granted just as there will be people here who do blame is more than the eu for disruption they may be some in the EU saying the same, but lots? The context of Brexit as our silly choice, as they see it, makes that unlikely.
This discussion has been closed.