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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The new order from the Honourable Member for the 18th Century

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,624
    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,009
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Details of the latest YouGov after Boris was elected Tory leader.....

    Looks like the LDs have replaced the Tories as the main party of the middle class....

    For a Tory to say that so lightly, as if it were of no consequence, is truly remarkable.
    The Tories still lead overall.

    In the late 19th century and early 20th century the Liberals often led with middle class voters and the Tories often led with working class voters.

    It may be we are moving to a politics based more on culture than class and conservative v liberal as in the USA, Canada and increasingly France as a result of Brexit
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
    It is often easy to mock USA (I'm guilty too) but where would we be without them?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,009
    edited July 2019
    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Details of the latest YouGov after Boris was elected Tory leader have the LDs leading with middle class ABC1 voters on 27%, with the Tories second on 25%, Labour third on 18% and the Brexit Party 4th with 14%.


    However with working class C2DE voters the Tories lead on 25%, Labour and the Brexit Party are tied for 2nd on 21% each and the LDs are 4th on 17%.


    Looks like the LDs have replaced the Tories as the main party of the middle class, the Brexit Party is close to replacing Labour as the new party of the working class and the Boris Tories are classless, getting the same voteshare with middle class and working class voters


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s7dlnv4ta4/TimesResults_VI_190724_w.pdf

    Turnout dear boy. ABC1s greater, C2DEs lesser.
    The Tories are only 2% behind the LDs with middle class voters and the Tories lead both Labour and the LDs with working class voters
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722
    edited July 2019
    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,952
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    Double breasted suits look fine. It's the fact they're ten sizes too big for him that's the problem. He's not David Byrne.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    I
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,793
    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    He doesn't appear in them.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    If EU say not to removing the backstop, then the plan is no deal then election shortly afterwards.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Just checking in after a wonderful Monteverdi Vespers at Garsington Opera.... this Rees-Mogg thing is a spoof, right?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657
    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    I suspect they are all tailored. I cannot see JRM buying off the peg. He either has a very bad tailor, chooses badly, or simply has not bought new clothes for years and wears ones that no longer fit. I suspect the last. Upper class people are famously stingy in these things.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    "Mirrors? What are mirrors?"
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    Is it not beneath you to use anyone's dress as a basis for criticism? Suppose for example, someone suggested you dress like a tart, how would you judge that? That is a fanciful suggestion because I have no knowledge of nor interest in how you dress.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    nico67 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Details of the latest YouGov after Boris was elected Tory leader.....

    Looks like the LDs have replaced the Tories as the main party of the middle class....

    For a Tory to say that so lightly, as if it were of no consequence, is truly remarkable.
    Yes amazing . Middle class Tories are crucial for them , without those they’ll never get a majority .

    It is their social influence, greater time to volunteer, and money, as much as greater propensity to turn out, which is important.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,793
    HYUFD said:

    It may be we are moving to a politics based more on culture than class and conservative v liberal as in the USA, Canada and increasingly France as a result of Brexit

    In some cases has already happened: class is no longer the main predictor of voting behavior, instead libertarian/authoritarian, education level and - more recently - remainvsleave are.

    However, whilst I acknowledge that it will happen, I regret the increasing Americanisation of UK politics, particularly as there isn't an obvious read-across. That posting by @isam of Farage spouting the Turning Point version of Socialism genuinely shocked me, and I think we will find ourselves increasingly in a political Procrustean bed, mangling ourselves to fit in with an ill-fitting American mould. Slapping the labels "conservative" and "liberal" on everything is a bad start, as some things just aren't either.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,793

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    Is it not beneath you to use anyone's dress as a basis for criticism? Suppose for example, someone suggested you dress like a tart, how would you judge that? That is a fanciful suggestion because I have no knowledge of nor interest in how you dress.
    [gets popcorn]
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970

    Just checking in after a wonderful Monteverdi Vespers at Garsington Opera.... this Rees-Mogg thing is a spoof, right?

    Dead cat more likely. Look what we are talking about rather than Johnny Foreigner's unfathomable refusal to cower in the face of Boris' resolve and optimism.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    Is it not beneath you to use anyone's dress as a basis for criticism? Suppose for example, someone suggested you dress like a tart, how would you judge that? That is a fanciful suggestion because I have no knowledge of nor interest in how you dress.
    [gets popcorn]
    remember your diet
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,354
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    If Keir Starmer became Labour leader many Remainers would get back on board .

    Whilst Corbyn is in charge that’s not going to happen because many know he’s anti EU and don’t trust him.

    The Lib Dems will use that even if Labours position became more solidly Remain .

    Labour cannot win back Remainers with Corbyn in charge. He is not to be trusted. If replaced by Phillips or Watson or Starmer or even Thornbury then a policy shift would be credible, but not otherwise.
    Corbyn's problem goes beyond that, it comes to a head in the antisemitism but is much else besides. Look at how his ratings plummeted after the Skripals affair. Centre-left, centre, and even centre-right remain voters who Labour need to counteract the Brexit vote are as unkeen on putting SWP-lite in power as they are Priti Patel and co. Even some on the left have begun to realise they made a big mistake.

    Now, in 2017 they were able to fudge it. Not just on Brexit, but because Labour MPs and voters coalesced in part because they thought a wipeout was on the cards, and in part because outside the politically obsessed Corbyn's politics were still seen as cuddly Glasto-friendly leftism. Two years on, the consequences and moral torpor have cut through - I have friends who genuinely couldn't understand why I on the left was so vehemently anti-Corbyn, who now get it, even if some might still vote Labour.

    Now, that's not to say the left has turned against Corbyn. Clearly Labour are polling c. 20-25% and the prospect of Johnson and moving to remain might cause some to swallow misgivings. But it's not likely to be enough - and may fail altogether if the Lib Dems have a good summer and Corbyn has a bad one and there's a genuine alternative.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    Is it not beneath you to use anyone's dress as a basis for criticism? Suppose for example, someone suggested you dress like a tart, how would you judge that? That is a fanciful suggestion because I have no knowledge of nor interest in how you dress.
    I suspect that @Cyclefree is just showing her Italian roots, such sartorial sensitivity...
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    It may be we are moving to a politics based more on culture than class and conservative v liberal as in the USA, Canada and increasingly France as a result of Brexit

    In some cases has already happened: class is no longer the main predictor of voting behavior, instead libertarian/authoritarian, education level and - more recently - remainvsleave are.

    However, whilst I acknowledge that it will happen, I regret the increasing Americanisation of UK politics, particularly as there isn't an obvious read-across. That posting by @isam of Farage spouting the Turning Point version of Socialism genuinely shocked me, and I think we will find ourselves increasingly in a political Procrustean bed, mangling ourselves to fit in with an ill-fitting American mould. Slapping the labels "conservative" and "liberal" on everything is a bad start, as some things just aren't either.

    Class has been declining as a voting behaviour predictor for 60 years or more. I wrote an undergraduate paper on it in the mid-eighties. It really isn't a new phenomenon. The only surprise is that the myth of it has lingered so long in the folk memory.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    "Mirrors? What are mirrors?"
    If he wants to know what he looks like he orders a portrait.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    From your post, "mess" = "no deal" and I suspect that, if it comes to that, I'm sure Boris will take responsibility for that outcome. How could he do or want to do otherwise?
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,601
    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    I don't think the EU are unfazed. They are fazed because the realise that there is the possibility of what they regard as the worst possible outcome for them - the UK leaving with no agreement in place at that point. They realise that if there is in place a UK government with a majority sufficient to force that outcome through then the game will be up and they will have to negotiate a mutually acceptable outcome that is better for them and which will require them to make concessions. So they are at least worried in a way they were not when May was PM.

    However, they have also decided that for the moment that Johnson can't force through that outcome so they will take their chances and back their assessment that when Johnson goes to the country, the result won't give him the majority for Brexit that he seeks. Best then to appear as unfazed and intransigent as possible in the meantime, as any movement would only be portrayed as vindicating Johnson's resolute strategy and would strengthen his polling position going into a GE. If they're wrong, they know they have to come back and give ground in a fairly urgent set of negotiations to deliver a settlement by the New Year.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Not if you holiday in Devon it don't.....
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,458
    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
  • Options
    edbedb Posts: 65
    Surely he meant no comma before and.
    Immediately before writing CHECK your work?!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    From your post, "mess" = "no deal" and I suspect that, if it comes to that, I'm sure Boris will take responsibility for that outcome. How could he do or want to do otherwise?
    I mean parliament wouldn't allow him to go to the country and potentially win a big enough majority to push what he wants through. In the specific case where Johnson has forced through a No Deal that they were unable to prevent
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
    Certainly they are concerned, who isn't?

    It doesn't mean that they will change policy though.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    I don't think the EU are unfazed. They are fazed because the realise that there is the possibility of what they regard as the worst possible outcome for them - the UK leaving with no agreement in place at that point. They realise that if there is in place a UK government with a majority sufficient to force that outcome through then the game will be up and they will have to negotiate a mutually acceptable outcome that is better for them and which will require them to make concessions. So they are at least worried in a way they were not when May was PM.

    However, they have also decided that for the moment that Johnson can't force through that outcome so they will take their chances and back their assessment that when Johnson goes to the country, the result won't give him the majority for Brexit that he seeks. Best then to appear as unfazed and intransigent as possible in the meantime, as any movement would only be portrayed as vindicating Johnson's resolute strategy and would strengthen his polling position going into a GE. If they're wrong, they know they have to come back and give ground in a fairly urgent set of negotiations to deliver a settlement by the New Year.
    This may be how things pan out; much more likely than some of the tosh on here. Who knows? What is clear to me is that Boris, for all of his faults, can hardly be worse than May or Corbyn. If Corbyn can also be ditched then some centrist alternative might be viable. Whilst Corbyn, or any of his fellow travellers, are running Labour, then it's a very low bar for any opponent of them.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,247
    edb said:

    Surely he meant no comma before and.
    Immediately before writing CHECK your work?!

    Doubt it - he went to Oxford.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
    Fair enough, unfazed is probably the wrong word. More accurately, the EU has shown no sign at any point of conceding on the Backstop. If that's the showstopper, the show will stop and the EU will live with it.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Tosh
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,458

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
    I don't double space after a full stop. But the three publications in your quote would not be high on my list of arbiters of correct English usage.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,247

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
    Double space isn't inherently wrong imho, but it is old fashioned, and, as you say, modern style guides don't allow it.

    If you want to do it in your own writing, which you send out without the intervention of a copy editor or a proofer then fine. But you are alerting at least some people to the rough age you went to school. But if you are sending the material in to a publishing house, I suggest you be careful.

    Mogg is reflecting the kind of prep schooling he had I suspect.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Were I one of JR-M’s staff, after I had finished laughing, I would write him a short note informing that I would be paying no attention to his “style” guide until such time as he had managed to find, buy and wear every day suits that fitted him.

    PS I might also add a PS with a list of good tailors in and around Jermyn Street.

    While double breasted does look a bit Eighties (or Twenties...), it is a style that suits a tall thin man.
    I have no issue with them being double-breasted. I do with the fact that they clearly don’t fit him. Is there no full-length mirror in the Mogg household?
    Is it not beneath you to use anyone's dress as a basis for criticism? Suppose for example, someone suggested you dress like a tart, how would you judge that? That is a fanciful suggestion because I have no knowledge of nor interest in how you dress.
    I suspect that @Cyclefree is just showing her Italian roots, such sartorial sensitivity...
    The insensitivity may be indicative of more than sartorial sensitivity. I am disappointed as she is usually positively thought provoking .
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,793

    Not if you holiday in Devon it don't.....
    The logical endpoint of Brexit is me stuck on a wet hill in Helvellyn eating warm piss sandwiches in the rain whilst some rich Leaver [redacted] tells me from their laptop in their Aspen/Alpine second home that I should be more patriotic.

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339



    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.

    I'm reasonably close to EU opinion, and I think they're mildly fazed (in the sense of regretful) but will not give an inch (or a centimetre, depending on which side of this evening's issue you are) on renegotiating the backstop; It doesn't matter if Boris wins a majority of 650.

    You're certainly right that not everyone is that engaged. They aren't either - you can read any Continental newspaper and find Brexit only on the Foreign News page, somewhat concerning in the same way as an economic crisis in any neighbouring country.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,458
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
    Certainly they are concerned, who isn't?

    It doesn't mean that they will change policy though.
    I imagine they will do what they think best. If that is to choose between No Deal and the current deal with no backstop, the choice seems obvious.

    As someone mentioned, at the moment they're placing their faith in Parliament somehow finding a way to block No Deal. This faith will diminish over the coming months.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,247

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
    I don't double space after a full stop. But the three publications in your quote would not be high on my list of arbiters of correct English usage.
    This isn't about correct English, it is about typographic style.

    The Chicago Manual of Style is the US bible.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,793

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation...

    I'm not sure "some tweets" crosses the threshold normally used for concern. I do however have this image of Victoria Wood going "tut".

  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    From your post, "mess" = "no deal" and I suspect that, if it comes to that, I'm sure Boris will take responsibility for that outcome. How could he do or want to do otherwise?
    I mean parliament wouldn't allow him to go to the country and potentially win a big enough majority to push what he wants through. In the specific case where Johnson has forced through a No Deal that they were unable to prevent
    Accepting that Boris cannot call an election without parliamentary approval, does that mean that he's immune from sanction? How does that stop "no deal" if that's what Boris wants? I don't believe he wants that. That's "all in" and he's not got that strong a hand.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657
    viewcode said:

    Not if you holiday in Devon it don't.....
    The logical endpoint of Brexit is me stuck on a wet hill in Helvellyn eating warm piss sandwiches in the rain whilst some rich Leaver [redacted] tells me from their laptop in their Aspen/Alpine second home that I should be more patriotic.

    Can I commend the Crab pasty at Ventnor Botainic gardens on the Isle of Wight. Sounds better than your plan...
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
    Certainly they are concerned, who isn't?

    It doesn't mean that they will change policy though.
    I imagine they will do what they think best. If that is to choose between No Deal and the current deal with no backstop, the choice seems obvious.

    As someone mentioned, at the moment they're placing their faith in Parliament somehow finding a way to block No Deal. This faith will diminish over the coming months.
    I am nearly certain the EU doesn't have any faith in the UK parliament. They have already been burnt in that when May obtained a concession on an all UK Customs Union, only for her to whip against it in the Commons.

    I also think the EU parties mean what they say, when they prioritise the Backstop over a potential No Deal. There has been zero evidence so far that is not the case.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,247



    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.

    I'm reasonably close to EU opinion, and I think they're mildly fazed (in the sense of regretful) but will not give an inch (or a centimetre, depending on which side of this evening's issue you are) on renegotiating the backstop; It doesn't matter if Boris wins a majority of 650.

    You're certainly right that not everyone is that engaged. They aren't either - you can read any Continental newspaper and find Brexit only on the Foreign News page, somewhat concerning in the same way as an economic crisis in any neighbouring country.
    I will be astonished if the EU blinks on all this. But then again it is supposed to be all about functioning, modern democracies, the rule of law and human rights and yet Hungary is still a member.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
    You have been told the plan, you are not listening because you believe no deal to be really bad. Clear your mind and think do Patel, Cummings, Raab, Da Costa, JRM, etc, etc, think no deal is bad. There is your answer.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
    I don't double space after a full stop. But the three publications in your quote would not be high on my list of arbiters of correct English usage.
    I would also be reluctant to accept American arbitration on usage of English. It's our language which they use. I don't object if they play fast and loose with it, but that don't make it right.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    From your post, "mess" = "no deal" and I suspect that, if it comes to that, I'm sure Boris will take responsibility for that outcome. How could he do or want to do otherwise?
    I mean parliament wouldn't allow him to go to the country and potentially win a big enough majority to push what he wants through. In the specific case where Johnson has forced through a No Deal that they were unable to prevent
    Accepting that Boris cannot call an election without parliamentary approval, does that mean that he's immune from sanction? How does that stop "no deal" if that's what Boris wants? I don't believe he wants that. That's "all in" and he's not got that strong a hand.
    It looks like parliament can't stop No Deal. Johnson can't force an election or get parliament to do something it doesn't want to do. The combination is pretty toxic. Whether Johnson will come out on top, I don't know.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
    Certainly they are concerned, who isn't?

    It doesn't mean that they will change policy though.
    I imagine they will do what they think best. If that is to choose between No Deal and the current deal with no backstop, the choice seems obvious.

    As someone mentioned, at the moment they're placing their faith in Parliament somehow finding a way to block No Deal. This faith will diminish over the coming months.
    Yes the choice is obvious. They will back their member state, and that means the Irish backstop. In any case why should they fear No Deal if it is all Project Fear.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    If he's a total bluffer then he ain't 'arf good at it.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
    You have been told the plan, you are not listening because you believe no deal to be really bad. Clear your mind and think do Patel, Cummings, Raab, Da Costa, JRM, etc, etc, think no deal is bad. There is your answer.
    Cummings does oppose No Deal.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,247

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
    I don't double space after a full stop. But the three publications in your quote would not be high on my list of arbiters of correct English usage.
    I would also be reluctant to accept American arbitration on usage of English. It's our language which they use. I don't object if they play fast and loose with it, but that don't make it right.
    It is not about English usage. Double spacing is a style or typographic issue.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is wrong. So is everyone else on pb. The worst offence against both English and common sense is official reports where the lines are double-spaced: a practice that comes from typewritten first drafts to allow room for alterations and the editor's blue pencil. It was rendered pointless by the introduction of word processing and computer typesetting decades ago.

    Here is an example from earlier today, the sentencing remarks for "Nick":
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BEECH-Sentencing-Remarks-26.7.19-003.pdf

    I agree about double spacing lines but will defend wholeheartedly double spacing after fullstops.
    Single spacing is the correct way.
    I can rest easy tonight, unless ..... you mean after fullstops!
    Yes, after full stops!
    You are wrong, regretfully. I'm sorry.
    No, you are wrong.

    By about 1950, most house styles had dropped the double space and agreed to use a single space in all instances. Today, almost every major style guide recommends this, including The Economist, the Guardian and the Chicago Manual of Style.

    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect?

    Some say it is, and pretty unequivocally too. It’s ‘totally, completely, utterly, and inarguably wrong’, according to American journalist Farhad Manjoo, writing on Slate.com. Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.


    https://www.writing-skills.com/one-space-two-full-stop
    I don't double space after a full stop. But the three publications in your quote would not be high on my list of arbiters of correct English usage.
    I would also be reluctant to accept American arbitration on usage of English. It's our language which they use. I don't object if they play fast and loose with it, but that don't make it right.
    So, given this general consensus, is using two spaces after a full stop actually incorrect? [..] Worse, says Telegraph columnist Damian Thompson, it’s a ‘typographical atrocity’.

  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    viewcode said:

    Not if you holiday in Devon it don't.....
    The logical endpoint of Brexit is me stuck on a wet hill in Helvellyn eating warm piss sandwiches in the rain whilst some rich Leaver [redacted] tells me from their laptop in their Aspen/Alpine second home that I should be more patriotic.

    Are you a Yorkie?
  • Options
    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    looking forward to the knights of the shires having a random esq. inserted after their name. what a dick.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
    TBF, imperial is much more flexible for mental arithmetic (which is what it was invented for).

    Measurements are based off known lengths (of a thumb, a foot, elbow to wrist, etc).

    Calculations are base 12, allowing for division by 2, 3, 4, 6 and 12.

    Metric works well in the digital world or where calculators are common but is a lot less intuitive.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
    Christ, if you were any more shallow, there'd be a hosepipe ban
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    s No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
    You have been told the plan, you are not listening because you believe no deal to be really bad. Clear your mind and think do Patel, Cummings, Raab, Da Costa, JRM, etc, etc, think no deal is bad. There is your answer.
    Cummings does oppose No Deal.
    Of course they all do for the long term or even the short term because they all quote the 17 mini deals as we have a deal. The question to ask is are they prepared to take a period of no deal to get the deal they ultimately want?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    Not if you holiday in Devon it don't.....
    The logical endpoint of Brexit is me stuck on a wet hill in Helvellyn eating warm piss sandwiches in the rain whilst some rich Leaver [redacted] tells me from their laptop in their Aspen/Alpine second home that I should be more patriotic.

    Aspen is soooo trashy these days 😉
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    s No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
    You have been told the plan, you are not listening because you believe no deal to be really bad. Clear your mind and think do Patel, Cummings, Raab, Da Costa, JRM, etc, etc, think no deal is bad. There is your answer.
    Cummings does oppose No Deal.
    Of course they all do for the long term or even the short term because they all quote the 17 mini deals as we have a deal. The question to ask is are they prepared to take a period of no deal to get the deal they ultimately want?
    Those 17 minideals...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/24/boris-johnson-claims-of-side-deals-are-rubbish-eu-says
  • Options
    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    yes i'm always working out areas using 12'7" x 18'9" , so straight forward
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Do you think they appear unfazed? We've already seen letters circulated to the member states telling them to keep their cool, and tweets accusing Boris of a bullying tone etc. These are not the actions of a non-concerned organisation.

    As to the rest of your post, you seem to believe that everyone has become as invested in either Leave or Remain as we on PB are. They're not.
    Certainly they are concerned, who isn't?

    It doesn't mean that they will change policy though.
    I imagine they will do what they think best. If that is to choose between No Deal and the current deal with no backstop, the choice seems obvious.

    As someone mentioned, at the moment they're placing their faith in Parliament somehow finding a way to block No Deal. This faith will diminish over the coming months.
    Yes the choice is obvious. They will back their member state, and that means the Irish backstop. In any case why should they fear No Deal if it is all Project Fear.
    Except that no deal implies a hard border which is what they claim to oppose most of all

    It suggests a bluff in which they are confident because they believe they are stronger than the other side

    Boris’s trump card [sic] is that there is a small scintilla of doubt in their mind that he might just be crazy enough to no deal ....
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Charles said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
    TBF, imperial is much more flexible for mental arithmetic (which is what it was invented for).

    Measurements are based off known lengths (of a thumb, a foot, elbow to wrist, etc).

    Calculations are base 12, allowing for division by 2, 3, 4, 6 and 12.

    Metric works well in the digital world or where calculators are common but is a lot less intuitive.
    An interesting, tho' I suspect minority, view. I'd not thought about it like this before. Ta.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    yes i'm always working out areas using 12'7" x 18'9" , so straight forward

    It was in agricultural usage not the modern boxes people build today

  • Options
    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    or we could always go back to calculating values such as 4 shillings and sixpence hapenny plus vat
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
    TBF, imperial is much more flexible for mental arithmetic (which is what it was invented for).

    Measurements are based off known lengths (of a thumb, a foot, elbow to wrist, etc).

    Calculations are base 12, allowing for division by 2, 3, 4, 6 and 12.

    Metric works well in the digital world or where calculators are common but is a lot less intuitive.
    An interesting, tho' I suspect minority, view. I'd not thought about it like this before. Ta.
    Let’s say you were a peasant with a strip of your own in a field.

    6 yards is easier to measure than 4.5 metres.
  • Options
    MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    justin124 said:

    I myself voted Leave

    Why? What did you hope to gain?
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    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Yes Charles, the world moved on. All very quaint, but pointless in the modern day. The PM yesterday was stressing bioscience, fibre broadband for all etc. and then we have this bollocks from JRM. All for effect of course as he deals in international finance in his real job.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Mango said:

    justin124 said:

    I myself voted Leave

    Why? What did you hope to gain?
    Does a vote always have to be about self-enrichment?
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    yes i'm always working out areas using 12'7" x 18'9" , so straight forward

    I feel so sorry for you.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Yes Charles, the world moved on. All very quaint, but pointless in the modern day. The PM yesterday was stressing bioscience, fibre broadband for all etc. and then we have this bollocks from JRM. All for effect of course as he deals in international finance in his real job.

    Just to be clear - insisting on one form of measurement in government memos is just pedantic bollocks. (I don’t know the context of JRM’s note - I assume it was a style guide of some sort?)

    I was pointing out that imperial system has value and uses. Outside of disciplines like engineering where precision matters (and you should have a consistent system) I would let people use whatever they are comfortable with.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited July 2019
    Mango said:

    justin124 said:

    I myself voted Leave

    Why? What did you hope to gain?
    To get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appalled at the style of politics they brought to this country - the scaremongering at the 2015 election and failed attempt to do likewise at the 2016 London Mayoral election. They both tried the same tactics for the 2016 Referendum and I was keen to deny them a victory. I have no regrets at all - and have never held strong views re-EU membership. The icing on the cake arrived a year later when the Tories lost their majority.
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    MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    justin124 said:


    To get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appalled at the style of politics they brought to this country - the scaremongering at the 2015 election and failed attempt to do likewise at the 2016 London Mayoral election. They both tried the same tactics for the 2016 Referendum and I was keen to deny them a victory. I have no regrets at all - and have never held strong views re-EU membership. The icing on the cake arrived a year later when the Tories lost their majority.

    Wow. I'm quite shocked.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,002

    Not if you holiday in Devon it don't.....
    Fuck the Maldives, it's a fortnight in Guzz!
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Mango said:

    justin124 said:


    To get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appalled at the style of politics they brought to this country - the scaremongering at the 2015 election and failed attempt to do likewise at the 2016 London Mayoral election. They both tried the same tactics for the 2016 Referendum and I was keen to deny them a victory. I have no regrets at all - and have never held strong views re-EU membership. The icing on the cake arrived a year later when the Tories lost their majority.

    Wow. I'm quite shocked.
    I’ve rarely seen such a good illustration of why people should not vote Labour: they are a bunch of bairns. Tit for tat. Eye for an eye. Just as antediluvian as Rees-Mogg.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
    TBF, imperial is much more flexible for mental arithmetic (which is what it was invented for).

    Measurements are based off known lengths (of a thumb, a foot, elbow to wrist, etc).

    Calculations are base 12, allowing for division by 2, 3, 4, 6 and 12.

    Metric works well in the digital world or where calculators are common but is a lot less intuitive.
    An interesting, tho' I suspect minority, view. I'd not thought about it like this before. Ta.
    Let’s say you were a peasant with a strip of your own in a field.

    6 yards is easier to measure than 4.5 metres.
    Therein lies the problem Charles. How many peasants have you, or Jacob Rees-Mogg, ever met?
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    Yes the choice is obvious. They will back their member state, and that means the Irish backstop. In any case why should they fear No Deal if it is all Project Fear.
    Except that no deal implies a hard border which is what they claim to oppose most of all

    It suggests a bluff in which they are confident because they believe they are stronger than the other side

    Boris’s trump card [sic] is that there is a small scintilla of doubt in their mind that he might just be crazy enough to no deal ....
    Classic case of psychological projection: the bluff and the doubt are 100% attributes of the UK government. The EU will always, always, back its own member state. It has been one of the few pleasures of the last three years watching little Ireland running absolute rings round bully-boy England. Your comeuppance has been a long time coming.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:


    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?

    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    It seems to me Johnson has two policies. One is to go all out on the No Surrender l rhetoric and try to bring the BP members onboard. The other is to declare victory, agree something with the EU and bring the BP boys home to the Conservative Party. Neither policy works on its own but together there are some tricky contradictions to resolve when you are not in control of events.
    Two plans? I am not convinced he even has one! just to bullshit and bluster, and hope something turns up. Such is the delusion of optomism...
    Maybe. Johnson is unprincipled, dishonest and lacking in responsibility and diligence. But he is smart and he wants to stay as prime minister. I am pretty sure he has a plan. I would like to understand what it is and whether it's likely to succeed.
    You have been told the plan, you are not listening because you believe no deal to be really bad. Clear your mind and think do Patel, Cummings, Raab, Da Costa, JRM, etc, etc, think no deal is bad. There is your answer.
    I am sure that lot do think No Deal is perfectly fine. It's at least possible, because he says so, thatJohnson does actually think the EU will drop the Backstop and agree the rest, while completing the FTA in 5 years. They won't.

    If the plan is as stated it won't work. But if it's simply a pretext for something else, it might do, depending on what it is.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Good morning, everyone.

    I agree with imperial measures (although I must confess to using Celsius rather than Fahrenheit), but double spaces after full stops seems very archaic. I'm aware this was done and have occasionally seen work by others that way, but it's not something I was ever taught or have done myself.
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    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I'm trying to work out the probabilities of success for Johnson's Brexit strategy on its own terms. So goes into standoff with the EU: if you don't concede totally on Ireland, no Deal.

    The aim appears to be to goad the EU into turning him down so he can blame them for intransigence. Possibly he hopes the EU will fold.

    The EU appear to be totally unfazed. In effect, come back when you are serious. Will it work? Leavers likely will blame the EU, but they do that anyway. In any case they just want to go straight to No Deal because they don't want anything to do with the EU or Europe, ever. Remainers will despise everything Johnson does. The small band of could-be-convinceds I suspect will wonder why he doesn't just get on with the deal.

    Next step parliament. So he goes to parliament and says, No Deal it is. Parliament says No to No Deal. Johnson says Bingo, they fell into my trap That's outrageous! You are thwarting democracy. Could you help me out please by calling an election so I can thrash you all?

    --- Am I missing part of the cunning plan?

    "No deal" is the default and if the EU say that May's deal is the only one they will accept, where do you go?
    So Parliament can't stop No Deal, but Johnson can't force an election. Nor can he get parliament to cooperate in anything he wants them to do?

    If I were one of Johnson's many political opponents, I would make sure he owns the mess.
    From your post, "mess" = "no deal" and I suspect that, if it comes to that, I'm sure Boris will take responsibility for that outcome. How could he do or want to do otherwise?
    I mean parliament wouldn't allow him to go to the country and potentially win a big enough majority to push what he wants through. In the specific case where Johnson has forced through a No Deal that they were unable to prevent
    So Corbyn, who DEMANDED a General Election just the day before yesterday can vote AGAINST a General Election ?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    F1: Verstappen's qualifying odds have fallen from 10 to 5.5. Gaping chasm on Betfair (1.3 to back, 10 to lay) but might be able to hedge, if that's your cup of tea, once things get going.

    There's also a qualifying without the big 6 market (Ladbrokes).
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,120

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    On imperial measurements, I'm also an engineer and I have never once in my career over the last ten years encountered a single imperial measurement outside of weird shit that the Americans send us. They make the mathematics harder than it needs to be, they don't work with a lot of electrical engineering units and they cause confusion when you have to convert between them. Please lets just kill them.

    My favourite American unit is acre-feet as a unit of volume.
    TBF, imperial is much more flexible for mental arithmetic (which is what it was invented for).

    Measurements are based off known lengths (of a thumb, a foot, elbow to wrist, etc).

    Calculations are base 12, allowing for division by 2, 3, 4, 6 and 12.

    Metric works well in the digital world or where calculators are common but is a lot less intuitive.
    An interesting, tho' I suspect minority, view. I'd not thought about it like this before. Ta.
    Let’s say you were a peasant with a strip of your own in a field.

    6 yards is easier to measure than 4.5 metres.
    Therein lies the problem Charles. How many peasants have you, or Jacob Rees-Mogg, ever met?
    I'm sure that both examples cited above think everyone they meet is a peasant.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,120
    Charles said:

    Yes Charles, the world moved on. All very quaint, but pointless in the modern day. The PM yesterday was stressing bioscience, fibre broadband for all etc. and then we have this bollocks from JRM. All for effect of course as he deals in international finance in his real job.

    Just to be clear - insisting on one form of measurement in government memos is just pedantic bollocks. (I don’t know the context of JRM’s note - I assume it was a style guide of some sort?)

    I was pointing out that imperial system has value and uses. Outside of disciplines like engineering where precision matters (and you should have a consistent system) I would let people use whatever they are comfortable with.
    Outside of baking, the imperial system is a pointless anachronism. Unless the government is sending around carrot cake recipes this instruction from Lord Snooty is ridiculous.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    (Haven't read all above so someone may have said this already...)

    With iOS, two spaces (i.e., space bar double tap) make a full point and a single space.

    Oh, well. I don't suppose there are any iPads over there in the 18th century.

This discussion has been closed.