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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

Participants are asked to rate the chances of them voting on a scale of 1-10 and the results are used to scale up or scale down their voting intention responses.

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Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

FPT: Mr. Ajob, you'll have to revise your (in my view) inaccurate labelling of me for the EU elections, when I'll be voting UKIP.

Scrapheap_as_was

How does one vote for Bercow in the EU elections?

MikeSmithson

The gender gap is nothing new
At GE2010 CON had 10% lead amongst men but only a 4% one amongst women
http://goo.gl/8uz0A

Quincel

Dammit. Missed out on a 16/1 chance!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24906132

DavidL

Is there any evidence that the turnout is significantly higher in marginal seats? I am not aware of it.

Hampstead and Kilburn is one of the most marginal on the mainland. Turnout was 66.3%. North Warwickshire 67.4, admittedly a fairly large increase on the time before. I don't think there is much evidence for this. Makes you wonder how useful all that spending by parties is, doesn't it?

JohnO

ICM was a good poll for Labour. But 18 months to go, 18 long months.....

So remember, tim, my cherished bean-bag warrior, 'it's the hope that kills you'.

LoL

CD13

A bit of a gender gap there.

Labour must be concerned that Ed is such a turn-off for men.

Pulpstar

Quincel said:

Dammit. Missed out on a 16/1 chance!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24906132

Yep !

CarlottaVance

Rallings & Thrasher:

turnout was lower in safe as opposed to marginal seats, although the gap seems to have narrowed compared with 2005. This is confirmed by a simple correlation analysis. In 2001 the correlation between a seat’s marginality and its level of turnout was 0.7; in 2005 it was 0.72. This year it was still significant, but at the lesser level of 0.48.

% Majority - Turnout:
0 to 5 : 67.9
5 to 10: 66.9
10 to 20: 66.7
20+: 62.8

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/105896/Plymouth-GE2010-report-web.pdf

DavidL

I should also add that Beaconsfield, the safest tory seat in the country had a turnout of 70% at the last election.

Given the average turnout was 65% the marginal seats are very much within a range dragged down by safe Labour seats where no one bothers and turnout is in the 50s. I certainly don't see a difference that is going to impact on the certainty to vote polling.

Financier

"In any case, to blame Germans for standing in the way of a resurgent Europe is just a little too convenient. It also misdiagnoses the nature of Europe’s problem. It’s not Germany, still less its economic success – if indeed you count expected growth this year of just 0.5pc as success – which is at the root of the difficulty; it’s the euro.

I’ve found it impossible to ascertain who was originally responsible for the expression “one size fits all monetary policy”; Eddie George, former governor of the Bank of England, used it in the context of the single currency as far back as the late 1990s, though it possibly has a much longer pedigree.

Yet the problem it defines is the same today as it has always been; any attempt to set a single interest rate for 17 politically and fiscally sovereign nations is almost by definition doomed to failure. Perpetual crisis is more or less guaranteed.

It is hard enough setting monetary policy just for a single country, as Britain, the US and Japan in their very different ways are currently demonstrating. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/10441966/Dont-blame-Germany-for-the-eurozones-travails-blame-the-euro-itself.html

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

I certainly don't see a difference that is going to impact on the certainty to vote polling.

The evidence from GE 2010 would suggest not - the only major difference in turnout was in seats with over a 20% majority - everything else was very close - the polling companies filter seems perfectly reasonable.

Financier

British cities could face race riots as an influx of Roma migrants creates “frictions” with local people, David Blunkett, a former home secretary has warned.

Anti-social behaviour by Roma people in his Sheffield constituency has resulted in “understandable tensions” among the indigenous community that must be addressed to avert disorder, Mr Blunkett said.

Roma migrants from Slovakia must “change their culture” and send their children to school, stop dumping rubbish and loitering in the streets in order to soothe tensions, Mr Blunkett said.

Otherwise, the community could “explode” in the same way northern towns were rocked by disorder between Asian and white neighbourhoods in the summer of 2001, Mr Blunkett said.

Britain is now home to 200,000 Roma migrants, one of the largest populations in Western Europe, a recent study shows. Most have come from eastern Europe since 2004 and the numbers are growing rapidly. Several hundred families live in the Page Hall district of Sheffield. Locals have set up “street patrols” in response to anti-social behaviour by migrants.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10442352/Roma-migrants-could-cause-riots-in-cities-warns-Blunkett.html

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

Is there any evidence that the turnout is significantly higher in marginal seats? I am not aware of it.

Hampstead and Kilburn is one of the most marginal on the mainland. Turnout was 66.3%. North Warwickshire 67.4, admittedly a fairly large increase on the time before. I don't think there is much evidence for this. Makes you wonder how useful all that spending by parties is, doesn't it?

Lot of transients, especially in Kilburn?

CarlottaVance

@Financier - looks like Blunkett has real problems in his constituency - but imagine the hoo-ha if a Tory had said it!

OldKingCole

Just looked it up. Fermanagh & S Tyrone, where the majority for the winner was 4, has a turnout of 68.9 which was 7 or so percent down on 2005.

Does make one inclined to DavidL's view. Also just might underline the fact that some at least of UKIP's supporters could well be previous NOTA's.

JohnO

tim said:

JohnO said:

ICM was a good poll for Labour. But 18 months to go, 18 long months.....

So remember, tim, my cherished bean-bag warrior, 'it's the hope that kills you'.

LoL

The Surrey branch of the Little Big Horn reenactment society was predicting that the economic cavalry would be here by now, what happened?

Oh, fret not, plastic pundit, it's coming, it's coming. A little delayed on the A3, but it's coming!

Financier

OT

For all Poirot aficionados:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/10441619/Poirot-the-ultimate-quiz.html

NickPalmer

Not sure YG has been reported yet, but it's a 7 point lead: 40/33/9/11. SNP close behind Lab (31/32) - but it's a subsample, of course. Marked shift against government in most secondaries, e.g. cuts too deep vs too shallow up from +25 to +32.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/fipqyl1d45/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-111113.pdf

dr_spyn

Davey tells energy companies not to treat customers like cash cows, whilst he tries hard not to remove green taxes which do just that.

JohnO

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

JohnO

tim said:

JohnO said:

tim said:

JohnO said:

ICM was a good poll for Labour. But 18 months to go, 18 long months.....

So remember, tim, my cherished bean-bag warrior, 'it's the hope that kills you'.

LoL

The Surrey branch of the Little Big Horn reenactment society was predicting that the economic cavalry would be here by now, what happened?

Oh, fret not, plastic pundit, it's coming, it's coming. A little delayed on the A3, but it's coming!

Sure it's heading in the right direction? could be using the Charles Atlas and heading for Walsall

Two Labour marginal seats in Walsall. More speed to the cavalry....

richardDodd

This 8 point lead , 18 months out from the GE, is one helluva storm tossed straw to cling onto, but clinging on in desperation is what Lefties are doing..Soaraway Labour.

NickPalmer

On topic, Carlotta's source looks pretty conclusive for last time - a modest difference but worth noting. As Mike says, all the parties are intensifying their efforts in this direction. Prosperous seats do also tend to have higher turnout - this has historically tended to increase the apparent bias of the voting system (as turnout is high in shire Tory seats with fairly stable populations and lower in inner-city Labour seats). But marginality undoubtedly helps too.

The polls haven't shown a consistent pattern that one party does better with the voters who are less certain, though it will marginally help Labour and hurt UKIP (who are the party with the most zealous voters at the moment).

JohnO

tim said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will shower a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

Why wait, let's have one on the upcoming MORI showing an improvement for Labour?

ICM is the VI gold standard, you know that. I sense a certain disinclination on your part. Smiles knowingly.

Do we have a deal or not?

Bobajob

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

FPT: Mr. Ajob, you'll have to revise your (in my view) inaccurate labelling of me for the EU elections, when I'll be voting UKIP.

Nobody cares about the Euro elections. I think I voted Green in one of them for a laugh.
How will you vote at the GE? Tory? Ergo you are a Tory.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Ajob, you remind me of someone at school who insisted I was an Anglican, despite me reassuring him I was an atheist. You do realise I know my own political perspective better than you? Shall I recount my criticisms of the Conservatives/Cameron? [Too green, Defence spending too low, aid spending too high, too meek over the BBC, stupid decisions over Leveson/press regulation, too pro-EU etc etc etc].

And yes, I will vote Conservative at the General Election. This constituency is Ed Balls'. He has a 1,000 vote majority, the boundaries, I think, have been rejigged a little again and the nearest challenger is the Conservatives. All others are a long way off. The best prospect for ousting Balls is to vote Conservative.

Stuart_Dickson

@NickPalmer -

... UKIP (who are the party with the most zealous voters at the moment).

Just a minor point Nick, but is it really fair to refer to people who are intending to vote UKIP as being "zealots"?

Surely their determination to actually cast their vote (a hard-won elementary human right) should be treated as a fine attribute, rather than something to be sneered at?

If only Labour sympathisers were as conscienscious in their civic duties.

Bobajob

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

That would be a dumb bet - as an 8pt lead is at the top end with a pollster whose methodology favours the Tories (Spiral of Shame adjustment etc etc)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dickson, it's a great achievement to be both a UKIP zealot and a Conservative at the same time

Bobajob

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ajob, you remind me of someone at school who insisted I was an Anglican, despite me reassuring him I was an atheist. You do realise I know my own political perspective better than you? Shall I recount my criticisms of the Conservatives/Cameron? [Too green, Defence spending too low, aid spending too high, too meek over the BBC, stupid decisions over Leveson/press regulation, too pro-EU etc etc etc].

And yes, I will vote Conservative at the General Election. This constituency is Ed Balls'. He has a 1,000 vote majority, the boundaries, I think, have been rejigged a little again and the nearest challenger is the Conservatives. All others are a long way off. The best prospect for ousting Balls is to vote Conservative.

A long way of saying you are a Tory. Define a Tory. Define a Labourite. Define a Kipper. Define a Greenie (Greenster? Greenarooney?)

A Tory is as a Tory votes.

JohnO

Bobajob said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

That would be a dumb bet - as an 8pt lead is at the top end with a pollster whose methodology favours the Tories (Spiral of Shame adjustment etc etc)

What you are trying to say, albeit rather clumsily, is that tim isn't half as cocky when it actually involves even a small charity bet.

MaxU

Anecdote alert- a bit of punditry:

Yesterday I had a conversation with a very well known academic political scientist (an expert on electoral reform in particular) about the result of the next election and its impact on the Lib-Dems in particular. Several conclusions emerged:

1. He thought that Miliband would have to be "a genius" to loose the next election given the current psephology. His clear prediction was that there would be a labour majority (he described the hung parliament window as much smaller than one imagines).

2. He thought that the Lib-Dems would be decimated and would emerge with less than 30 seats (hence the smallness of the hung parliament window), his reasons were:
a) that the Lib-Dems would be destroyed almost to a man in Scotland and in the North of England where they face Labour (he expected enormous swings against them in such seats)
b) that the national swing against the Lib-Dems would be so huge that the local incumbency bonus will not help them as much as currently predicted.
c) that therefore, although the Lib-Dems will do better where they face the Tories, they will still loose a substantial number of seats to them as well.
d) that both the student vote and the professional middle classes would turn against the Lib-Dems- leaving it unclear where they would get their votes from.


3. He was very bullish about the prospects for UKIP- thinking that they will come third in the general election (beating the Lib-Dems into fourth place) but considered that they would win hardly any seats.

I thought that his analysis was striking, as it comes from a natural Lib-Dem (who was a prominent academic supporter of the SDP in the 1980s). I wish I could tell you who it was, as most of you will definitely have heard of him, but I feel I cannot betray his confidence.

As an addition he thought that so distorted will be the result to the next election that electoral reform will, surprisingly, once gain return to the agenda. However that may just be wishful thinking on his part.

Bobajob

JohnO said:

Bobajob said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

That would be a dumb bet - as an 8pt lead is at the top end with a pollster whose methodology favours the Tories (Spiral of Shame adjustment etc etc)

What you are trying to say, albeit rather clumsily, is that tim isn't half as cocky when it actually involves even a small charity bet.

What I am trying to say, perfectly straightforwardly, is that I wouldn't take that bet. Tim's business is his business

NickPalmer

Stuart_Dickson said:

@NickPalmer -

... UKIP (who are the party with the most zealous voters at the moment).

Just a minor point Nick, but is it really fair to refer to people who are intending to vote UKIP as being "zealots"?

Surely their determination to actually cast their vote (a hard-won elementary human right) should be treated as a fine attribute, rather than something to be sneered at?

If only Labour sympathisers were as conscienscious in their civic duties.





Yes, you're right. It wasn't actually intended as an aspersion (I would I suppose describe myself as a zealot) but it's usually used that way and it was careless to use the word instead of something like "keenest".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Ajob, that's nonsense. I've voted for four parties (counting Independent as a party). If/when Balls stops being the Labour candidate for my constituency I'll have to consider how to vote, with UKIP an alternative, or possibly Independent. If the Lib Dems or UKIP were placed as the only realistic alternative to Balls in this seat I'd vote for them.

Bobajob

@Morris

Why is calling someone a Tory when they vote Tory rubbish? What am I supposed to call them?

You seem embarrassed to be a Tory!

stodge

Morning all

While ICM has a certain gravitas among pollsters on here, it is capable of throwing out outlier numbers for individual parties though the Populus numbers suggest that the November ICM poll looks fairly robust on that basis.

18 months out and of course that means two Budgets and two winters for the Coalition. What will please Labour supporters is the renewed solidity of the Miliband Coalition of the 2010 Labour core plus around 40% of the 2010 LDs. As long as that remains intact, it's hard to see how you can keep Miliband out of 10 Downing Street.

That said, there's still a very long way to go (30% of this Parliament) and the one predictable thing is the surfeit of the unpredictable we will no doubt face in the weeks and months ahead.

isam

Bobajob said:

@Morris

Why is calling someone a Tory when they vote Tory rubbish? What am I supposed to call them?

You seem embarrassed to be a Tory!

So if you lived in a constituency where voting Green or SWP was the only realistic way of preventing a Tory candidate winning you would vote Labour?

JohnO

tim said:

JohnO said:

Bobajob said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

That would be a dumb bet - as an 8pt lead is at the top end with a pollster whose methodology favours the Tories (Spiral of Shame adjustment etc etc)

What you are trying to say, albeit rather clumsily, is that tim isn't half as cocky when it actually involves even a small charity bet.

I think the Labour lead is 6-7, why would I offer evens on a poll showing it to be less than 8?

You're confident things are moving in the Tories direction (at least you were last month) have a MORI bet

No. I posted here very recently that Labour's lead had notched up a little and that it was now unlikely any poll would show a Tory lead before the New Year.

I agree that the lead is currently 6-7, up from 4-5. I fully expect MORI to show Labour ahead.

I'm not in the least bit concerned 18 months out about either this level of VI or Leaders' ratings. How many times do I have to keep explaining that simple verity to you? Sadly, almost every week it would appear, but I'm the epitome of patience as one must be with you.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Ajob, if I were embarrassed to be voting Conservative I wouldn't state it publicly. In the same way if I were embarrassed to be voting UKIP I wouldn't state it publicly.

My vote in 2015 is an anti-Balls vote. If Balls ceases to be my Labour candidate or further boundary changes alter the electoral picture so that another party becomes a viable (or leading) challenger to him then I'll reconsider how I vote. If it were a pro-Conservative vote then I'd just vote for them come rain or shine.

Anyway, I grow tired of listening to you tell me what you think my political perspective is.

stodge

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ajob, that's nonsense. I've voted for four parties (counting Independent as a party). If/when Balls stops being the Labour candidate for my constituency I'll have to consider how to vote, with UKIP an alternative, or possibly Independent. If the Lib Dems or UKIP were placed as the only realistic alternative to Balls in this seat I'd vote for them.

Not a problem I face in East Ham of course. Stephen Timms polled 70% in 2010 so I can't imagine he's under a lot of pressure. I'll vote LD and wonder if we'll finish fourth, fifth or sixth. In lieu of any Respect-type or Independent candidate, the Conservatives will finish a country mile behind Mr Timms. It will be intersting to see how UKIP fare.

CarlottaVance

Financier said:

OT

For all Poirot aficionados:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/10441619/Poirot-the-ultimate-quiz.html

No little grey cells here! At least I worked out Captain Hastings couldn't have sailed on the Titanic twice!

CarlottaVance

tim said:

A govt of imbeciles

A whole post about a slip of the tongue, swiftly corrected!

Bobajob

isam said:

Bobajob said:

@Morris

Why is calling someone a Tory when they vote Tory rubbish? What am I supposed to call them?

You seem embarrassed to be a Tory!

So if you lived in a constituency where voting Green or SWP was the only realistic way of preventing a Tory candidate winning you would vote Labour?

I wouldn't actually vote - as I'd be dreaming or in some sort of hallucinogenic coma

CarlottaVance

Scotland Yard has assigned a squad of detectives to investigate the role of the Guardian newspaper in the Edward Snowden affair.
Assistant Commissioner Cressida Dick told a Conservative MP that she has “a team of highly capable detectives dedicated to this investigation who are committed to following the evidence wherever it may lead

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article3919492.ece

CarlottaVance

EDF Energy announces average price rises of 3.9% - latest UK provider to raise bills but by "half" that of rivals

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24909251

state_go_away

Bobajob said:

isam said:

Bobajob said:

@Morris

Why is calling someone a Tory when they vote Tory rubbish? What am I supposed to call them?

You seem embarrassed to be a Tory!

So if you lived in a constituency where voting Green or SWP was the only realistic way of preventing a Tory candidate winning you would vote Labour?

I wouldn't actually vote - as I'd be dreaming or in some sort of hallucinogenic coma

I personally do not take into account who can win in a seat I am voting. I vote for who I want to win (even if they have no chance). To me using your vote to prevent somebody winning is a negative way of voting. Voting (and politics) should be positive

Stuart_Dickson

NickPalmer said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

@NickPalmer -

... UKIP (who are the party with the most zealous voters at the moment).

Just a minor point Nick, but is it really fair to refer to people who are intending to vote UKIP as being "zealots"?

Surely their determination to actually cast their vote (a hard-won elementary human right) should be treated as a fine attribute, rather than something to be sneered at?

If only Labour sympathisers were as conscienscious in their civic duties.

Yes, you're right. It wasn't actually intended as an aspersion (I would I suppose describe myself as a zealot) but it's usually used that way and it was careless to use the word instead of something like "keenest".



Thank you.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ajob, you remind me of someone at school who insisted I was an Anglican, despite me reassuring him I was an atheist. You do realise I know my own political perspective better than you? Shall I recount my criticisms of the Conservatives/Cameron? [Too green, Defence spending too low, aid spending too high, too meek over the BBC, stupid decisions over Leveson/press regulation, too pro-EU etc etc etc].

And yes, I will vote Conservative at the General Election. This constituency is Ed Balls'. He has a 1,000 vote majority, the boundaries, I think, have been rejigged a little again and the nearest challenger is the Conservatives. All others are a long way off. The best prospect for ousting Balls is to vote Conservative.

Won't you consider my betting positions in the ballot box ?

TheSheikofShake

NickPalmer said:

Not sure YG has been reported yet, but it's a 7 point lead: 40/33/9/11. SNP close behind Lab (31/32) - but it's a subsample, of course. Marked shift against government in most secondaries, e.g. cuts too deep vs too shallow up from +25 to +32.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/fipqyl1d45/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-111113.pdf

The change is largely in Scotland - presumably ships on the Clyde plus Falkirk/Grangemouth.

Labour culpable for the cuts up from 57% to 69% in Scotland.

Falkirk filtering through.

state_go_away

Stuart_Dickson said:

NickPalmer said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

@NickPalmer -

... UKIP (who are the party with the most zealous voters at the moment).

Just a minor point Nick, but is it really fair to refer to people who are intending to vote UKIP as being "zealots"?

Surely their determination to actually cast their vote (a hard-won elementary human right) should be treated as a fine attribute, rather than something to be sneered at?

If only Labour sympathisers were as conscienscious in their civic duties.

Yes, you're right. It wasn't actually intended as an aspersion (I would I suppose describe myself as a zealot) but it's usually used that way and it was careless to use the word instead of something like "keenest".

Thank you.

I think the word 'zealot' is used more of an insult in this country than most as it implies you believe in something strongly , perhaps believing in something not directly connected to pure self interest. Britain is a country where we do not like people to believe in anything and we are getting more self absorbed as time goes on

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, no! Morris Dancer's vote is not for sale.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, no! Morris Dancer's vote is not for sale.

Even for some... book sales ?

Lol its ok, not sure even I could tick Mr Balls' name in the ballot box ;p

Bobajob

SeanT said:

JohnO said:

tim said:

JohnO said:

Bobajob said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

That would be a dumb bet - as an 8pt lead is at the top end with a pollster whose methodology favours the Tories (Spiral of Shame adjustment etc etc)

What you are trying to say, albeit rather clumsily, is that tim isn't half as cocky when it actually involves even a small charity bet.

I think the Labour lead is 6-7, why would I offer evens on a poll showing it to be less than 8?

You're confident things are moving in the Tories direction (at least you were last month) have a MORI bet

No. I posted here very recently that Labour's lead had notched up a little and that it was now unlikely any poll would show a Tory lead before the New Year.

I agree that the lead is currently 6-7, up from 4-5. I fully expect MORI to show Labour ahead.

I'm not in the least bit concerned 18 months out about either this level of VI or Leaders' ratings. How many times do I have to keep explaining that simple verity to you? Sadly, almost every week it would appear, but I'm the epitome of patience as one must be with you.

ICM had the parties equal in July. Now Labour are 8 points ahead. That's more than a "notch up".

In the summer I was hopeful Labour could at least be restricted to a plurality, and maybe even be defeated. Now, if forced to bet, I'd say Ed is on course for a majority. There are just too many factors in his favour, not least the craven stupidity of the electorate.

I am making the appropriate financial plans, consonant with this enormity. I suggest you do the same.

They'll be dancing in the streets of Primrose Hill Sean. I do wonder if you are the most popular dinner party guest around there, all the lefty yummy mummies in their sexy threads inviting the token rightwinger to add spice to their Saturday night.

You love it.

BenM

JohnO said:

ICM was a good poll for Labour. But 18 months to go, 18 long months.....

Plenty of time for this insipid "recovery" to tail off again.

TGOHF

CPI inflation down to 2.2%

OldKingCole

isam said:

Bobajob said:

@Morris

Why is calling someone a Tory when they vote Tory rubbish? What am I supposed to call them?

You seem embarrassed to be a Tory!

So if you lived in a constituency where voting Green or SWP was the only realistic way of preventing a Tory candidate winning you would vote Labour?

I'm musing over what just might happen round here where UKIP appears to have an organisation of sorts. It's the sort of place where they might do well, so what will I do if they appear to be the main challenger to the sitting Tory?
Whom I would like to see gone because of her attitude to the less advantaged, and her stated belief that alls well with everything so long as there's a Tory Government and Tory dominated local government.
Can't honestly ever see me voting Tory even to keep UKIP our, or UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose!

TheScreamingEagles

In case the rozzers are reading.

Mr Pulpstar and Mr Dancer were joking about Mr Dancer's vote being up for sale.

::Innocent Face::

TheScreamingEagles

My issue with this is, is two fold

1) What is the precise definition of a marginal

2) Do people know they actually live in a marginal?

BenM

Rightwing economics fail

Inflation plummets.

@DuncanWeldon
Where does the sharp fall in inflation leave the 'raise rates now' crowd? Looking a bit silly I think.

Bobajob

Referring to Scottish subsamples is a very dangerous game on PB. There was a time when otherwise innocent posters would be banned for months on end merely for uttering the words.
Just ask Stuart Dickson.

TGOHF

BenM said:

Rightwing economics fail

Inflation plummets.

@DuncanWeldon
Where does the sharp fall in inflation leave the 'raise rates now' crowd? Looking a bit silly I think.

This is great news in the battle of the cost of living Ben - inflation falling, wages rising, interest rates static, unemployment falling.

We've never had it so good (since 1997).

Bobajob

Hopefully interest rates will remain at rock bottom for years to come.

Scrapheap_as_was

tim said:

JohnO said:

Bobajob said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I feel like another charity bet. How about £20 evens that next month's ICM poll will show a lower Labour lead than this one?

(I'm hoping for a rebate from possible mis-selling by one of those naughty energy companies, so I may be able to afford to lose!).

That would be a dumb bet - as an 8pt lead is at the top end with a pollster whose methodology favours the Tories (Spiral of Shame adjustment etc etc)

What you are trying to say, albeit rather clumsily, is that tim isn't half as cocky when it actually involves even a small charity bet.

I think the Labour lead is 6-7, why would I offer evens on a poll showing it to be less than 8?

You're confident things are moving in the Tories direction (at least you were last month) have a MORI bet

No chance John O - both last night and last thread I've offered the oh so confident redsters a better bet than that and despite tim's lead guess above of 6-7, no one took me up on this offer?

NPx - Did you accept my open offer of betting the next monthly ICM shows a lead of 5% or less then? No on else did so I believe - not exactly ringing support from the PBreds?

state_go_away

Bobajob said:

Referring to Scottish subsamples is a very dangerous game on PB. There was a time when otherwise innocent posters would be banned for months on end merely for uttering the words.
Just ask Stuart Dickson.

I have a theory that the errr Scottish subsamples (said quickly in a muffled tone) are the key to untold riches in political betting and the secret is closely guarded by the equivalent of the Alumini in a Dan Brown novel. Stuart Dickson got off lightly imo by being just banned

Charles

JohnO said:

ICM was a good poll for Labour. But 18 months to go, 18 long months.....

So remember, tim, my cherished bean-bag warrior, 'it's the hope that kills you'.

LoL

Are you channeling a Spurs fan now?

BenM

TGOHF said:

BenM said:

Rightwing economics fail

Inflation plummets.

@DuncanWeldon
Where does the sharp fall in inflation leave the 'raise rates now' crowd? Looking a bit silly I think.

This is great news in the battle of the cost of living Ben - inflation falling, wages rising, interest rates static, unemployment falling.

We've never had it so good (since 1997).

@DuncanWeldon
1. we have a cost of living crisis. 2. we do not have an inflation problem. 3. we have a wage growth problem.

OldKingCole

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, no. And you should buy Sir Edric's Temple because it's a witty and thrilling tale of cowardice, treachery, adultery, deceit and kicking people through sixth floor windows: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Temple-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

state_go_away

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

The last bit on a rowing boat will be

TGOHF

BenM said:

TGOHF said:

BenM said:

Rightwing economics fail

Inflation plummets.

@DuncanWeldon
Where does the sharp fall in inflation leave the 'raise rates now' crowd? Looking a bit silly I think.

This is great news in the battle of the cost of living Ben - inflation falling, wages rising, interest rates static, unemployment falling.

We've never had it so good (since 1997).

@DuncanWeldon
1. we have a cost of living crisis. 2. we do not have an inflation problem. 3. we have a wage growth problem.

last month a 2.5% pay rise was a real terms cut, this month it is a real terms rise.

Funny old game

CarlottaVance

tim said:

Bobajob said:

Referring to Scottish subsamples is a very dangerous game on PB. There was a time when otherwise innocent posters would be banned for months on end merely for uttering the words.
Just ask Stuart Dickson.

Wait until Carlotta sees the ICM one, spontaneous climax

Since you mention it:

Con: 14 +1
Lab: 32 -6
LibD: 2 -5
SNP: 48 +10

What might account for that, I wonder?

With Con down 4 nationally, why was Lab flat?

http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/11/2013_guardian_nov_poll.pdf

CarlottaVance

Bobajob said:

Hopefully interest rates will remain at rock bottom for years to come.

That rather depends on who gets (re-?) elected in 2015 and how the markets react.....

TGOHF

tim said:

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

It's bollocks, who on earth is spending the money on the plans?

Uh oh - here come the luddites.

Eeeh in my day a bi plane took off from field - and we got free Hovis.

Have you been to Hong Kong airport tim ?

JosiasJessop

tim said:

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

It's bollocks, who on earth is spending the money on the plans?

Says PB's biggest expert on infrastructure, the man who gets it right every time. ;-)

state_go_away

tim said:

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

It's bollocks, who on earth is spending the money on the plans?

I want a model of Boris island for Christmas

TGOHF

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

Cambs to LHR can be 1.5-3.5hrs in a car depending on traffic.

Train is a total nightmare - tube change at Kings X.

Cyclefree

tim said:

Overcrowded Britain

@Andrew_Adonis: Fact of the day: golf courses occupy more land than all the housing in England put together (today's City AM)

I feel about golf courses the way you do about cats. A waste of good land.

BenM

TGOHF said:

BenM said:

TGOHF said:

BenM said:

Rightwing economics fail

Inflation plummets.

@DuncanWeldon
Where does the sharp fall in inflation leave the 'raise rates now' crowd? Looking a bit silly I think.

This is great news in the battle of the cost of living Ben - inflation falling, wages rising, interest rates static, unemployment falling.

We've never had it so good (since 1997).

@DuncanWeldon
1. we have a cost of living crisis. 2. we do not have an inflation problem. 3. we have a wage growth problem.

last month a 2.5% pay rise was a real terms cut, this month it is a real terms rise.

Funny old game

2.5% pay rise!

Average Pay Rise is 0.7% up to Sept!

Pulpstar

2.2% inflation. Good.

TGOHF

tim said:

TGOHF said:

tim said:

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

It's bollocks, who on earth is spending the money on the plans?

Uh oh - here come the luddites.

Eeeh in my day a bi plane took off from field - and we got free Hovis.

Have you been to Hong Kong airport tim ?

It's on the wrong side of London, end of.

Not for the channel tunnel, the city, Kent, Essex, east coast mainline etc etc etc

Also 24hr landing and take off - no NIMBY's to upset.

Try having some ambition for a change.

state_go_away

tim said:

Cyclefree said:

tim said:

Overcrowded Britain

@Andrew_Adonis: Fact of the day: golf courses occupy more land than all the housing in England put together (today's City AM)

I feel about golf courses the way you do about cats. A waste of good land.

Put all the cats on golf courses, then torch 'em

Often wonder where SeanT gets his ideas for stories from!

Pulpstar

Cyclefree said:

tim said:

Overcrowded Britain

@Andrew_Adonis: Fact of the day: golf courses occupy more land than all the housing in England put together (today's City AM)

I feel about golf courses the way you do about cats. A waste of good land.

Indeed. Turn them into gallops.

CarlottaVance

Pulpstar said:

2.2% inflation. Good.

Not if you're Danny '5 million unemployed' Blancheflower - he's now tweeting about the risks of deflation.....

Theuniondivvie

CarlottaVance said:

LibD: 2 -5

LDs 2!?

I can't be having a subsample, but that's too good not have a ROFLPMSL.
The Carmichael effect nae doot.

state_go_away

Tim is not going to support something named Boris island even if the airport and planes where to be powered by burning cats. Now if it were called Livingstone island maybe Tim's view would change

CarlottaVance

tim said:

TGOHF said:

tim said:

OldKingCole said:

Just been looking at the Boris Island plans. Hard to believe it will probably be harder to get to than Heathrow from East Anglai/Cambridge.
But looks as though it will be.

It's bollocks, who on earth is spending the money on the plans?

Uh oh - here come the luddites.

Eeeh in my day a bi plane took off from field - and we got free Hovis.

Have you been to Hong Kong airport tim ?

It's on the wrong side of London, end of.

Is Chep Lap Kok on the 'wrong side of Hong Kong'?

Pulpstar

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

LibD: 2 -5

LDs 2!?

I can't be having a subsample, but that's too good not have a ROFLPMSL.
The Carmichael effect nae doot.

We badly need a Scotland poll. Subsamples have a huge MoE, but do the Lib Dems even keep Orkney on 2% ?

We know: Labour are ahead in the UK and are steady on ~ 38% which will hand Ed th kys to power if it keeps like this.
Scotland wants to stay in the UK.

Some specific Scottish VI would be handy - but it seems any Scotland poll is about independence.

Pulpstar

CarlottaVance said:

Pulpstar said:

2.2% inflation. Good.

Not if you're Danny '5 million unemployed' Blancheflower - he's now tweeting about the risks of deflation.....

Profession: Economist

I rest my case.

CarlottaVance

IDS on the 'spare room subsidy:

Latest ONS figures show that around 375,000 households across England and Wales are living in overcrowded homes in the social rented sector, a fact hardly ever referred to by Labour who left us with this problem.

And it is also clearly unfair to treat people differently in the social and private rented sectors.

Our changes mean that all housing benefit claimants of working age – be they in the social sector or the private sector – receive housing benefit for the number of bedrooms they need. Some households will choose to downsize, which will free-up properties for families now living in overcrowded homes.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/11/the-public-agree-that-cutting-the-spare-room-subsidy-is-fair.html

Theuniondivvie

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

LibD: 2 -5

LDs 2!?

I can't be having a subsample, but that's too good not have a ROFLPMSL.
The Carmichael effect nae doot.

We badly need a Scotland poll. Subsamples have a huge MoE, but do the Lib Dems even keep Orkney on 2% ?

We know: Labour are ahead in the UK and are steady on ~ 38% which will hand Ed th kys to power if it keeps like this.
Scotland wants to stay in the UK.

Some specific Scottish VI would be handy - but it seems any Scotland poll is about independence.

Afaik Ashcroft's in October was the last one:

CON 18%(+1), LAB 40%(-2), LDEM 6%(-13), SNP 31%(+11), UKIP 2%(+1)

http://tinyurl.com/n52h939

TheScreamingEagles

Am I the only one who giggles like a schoolboy when he sees the word "Trump" and "Wind" in the same headline?

Donald Trump challenge to Aberdeenshire wind farm to begin

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-24909370

CarlottaVance

tim said:

@Carlotta

It's a sample of 87 people, don't make a fool of yourself

Says the man who said Falkirk was a 'non-story'!

CarlottaVance

A Times article comment on the Dimbleby tattoo - 'At 75 the only tattoo I am getting is one that says 'Do not resuscitate'!'

TheScreamingEagles

Right, they were caught watching Team America (or Twilight) weren't they?

Dozens executed in North Korea 'for watching foreign films'

Eighty people have been executed by firing squad in North Korea for watching foreign films, it has been claimed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10442375/Dozens-executed-in-North-Korea-for-watching-foreign-films.html

JonnyJimmy

BenM said:

TGOHF said:

BenM said:

Rightwing economics fail

Inflation plummets.

@DuncanWeldon
Where does the sharp fall in inflation leave the 'raise rates now' crowd? Looking a bit silly I think.

This is great news in the battle of the cost of living Ben - inflation falling, wages rising, interest rates static, unemployment falling.

We've never had it so good (since 1997).

@DuncanWeldon
1. we have a cost of living crisis. 2. we do not have an inflation problem. 3. we have a wage growth problem.

Duncan Weldon is a "Senior Economist" at the TUC.

Cyclefree

tim said:

Cyclefree said:

tim said:

Overcrowded Britain

@Andrew_Adonis: Fact of the day: golf courses occupy more land than all the housing in England put together (today's City AM)

I feel about golf courses the way you do about cats. A waste of good land.

Put all the cats on golf courses, then torch 'em

No - cruelty is a step too far.

Theuniondivvie

Something for the several Star Wars fans (Jedis, Warsies?) on here:

http://twitpic.com/dkz2jn

Bobajob

@State

What subsamples were those exactly? Speak up man.