This is a good, academic analysis of the phenomenon:
“People in England who feel strongly attached to their English national identity are much more likely to support Brexit than those who do not. Of those who chose the highest value for English identity on a 7-point scale, over 70 per cent voted to leave the UK. Conversely, over 80 per cent amongst those who only emphasise their Englishness slightly (2 on a 7-point scale) voted to remain. National identity mattered strongly in this referendum, but is rarely talked about to the same extent as questions of class or even age, although the divide is much more dramatic and cuts across different socio-economic groups in the population.”
I wonder if Boris is going to evict the Downing street cat? If he does it will be the first pussy he has turned away!
Isn’t the cat essential for controlling the rodents resident in such an old building? I’ll leave it to others to make rat jokes.
I remember reading a story in one newspaper that stated when David Cameron was PM he was in a 'working dinner' and a mouse popped out of a crack in the wall and he was so incensed he throw a fork at it!
A cousin of mine was having lunch once and he saw a mouse climbing over a painting. So he picked up his rifle (which happened to be to hand... @topping) and shot it.
Unfortunately he was drunk....
There is still a missing ear off one of the dragons in the dining room...
Peak Charles
I know. And raises so many unanswered questions. Like who is drunk at lunchtime? Who has a loaded rifle to hand while eating lunch? Who has dragons in their dining room? Who even has a dining room? I will never understand the English ruling classes.
This was back in the 40s when things were a little less serious than they are today
Premier League footballers were taking air rifles to work to shoot apprentices only a few years ago....
I wonder if Boris is going to evict the Downing street cat? If he does it will be the first pussy he has turned away!
Isn’t the cat essential for controlling the rodents resident in such an old building? I’ll leave it to others to make rat jokes.
I remember reading a story in one newspaper that stated when David Cameron was PM he was in a 'working dinner' and a mouse popped out of a crack in the wall and he was so incensed he throw a fork at it!
A cousin of mine was having lunch once and he saw a mouse climbing over a painting. So he picked up his rifle (which happened to be to hand... @topping) and shot it.
Unfortunately he was drunk....
There is still a missing ear off one of the dragons in the dining room...
Peak Charles
I know. And raises so many unanswered questions. Like who is drunk at lunchtime? Who has a loaded rifle to hand while eating lunch? Who has dragons in their dining room? Who even has a dining room? I will never understand the English ruling classes.
This was back in the 40s when things were a little less serious than they are today
Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.
Much as I would like to agree with this, I don't think it's true: at the very least it's unproven, unless there's been some studies I'm unaware of. If somebody put a gun to my head and said "Name one demonstrable difference between Leavers and Remainers", I'd say the former are on average older than the latter.
The key determinant of whether a voter in England chose Leave or Remain is not age, education, social grouping, gender or any of the other of the standard ways of divvying up voter groups. It is in fact national identity:
- people who self-identified as being English voted heavily for Leave - people who self-identified as being British voted heavily for Remain
I bet thats heavily skewed by Londoners who in my experience identify much more heavily with British than English.
No self-respecting Londoner identifies as anything other than a Londoner.
I absolutely fucking despise what the Labour Party has becomflsee. That I voted for that anal pustule Jezbollah is a shame I will never get over. I stay for 2 reasons - one, putting cretins to the sword relieves my stress levels, two, we need to defeat said cretins
Pretty credible poll IMO - unlike RochdaleP members overwhelmingly like Jeremy (80%) and want him to lead in the next GE (earlier reports that 44% disagreed turn out to have included all don't knows) though they think he handled Brexit badly and have mixed feeling about the antisemitism issue. McDonnell, Starmer and Thornberry are seen as plausible successors, Watson and Phillips not. I think Thornberry would win if there was a selection tomorrow.
My reading of that poll is very different to yours. 56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I wonder if Boris is going to evict the Downing street cat? If he does it will be the first pussy he has turned away!
Isn’t the cat essential for controlling the rodents resident in such an old building? I’ll leave it to others to make rat jokes.
I remember reading a story in one newspaper that stated when David Cameron was PM he was in a 'working dinner' and a mouse popped out of a crack in the wall and he was so incensed he throw a fork at it!
A cousin of mine was having lunch once and he saw a mouse climbing over a painting. So he picked up his rifle (which happened to be to hand... @topping) and shot it.
Unfortunately he was drunk....
There is still a missing ear off one of the dragons in the dining room...
Peak Charles
I know. And raises so many unanswered questions. Like who is drunk at lunchtime? Who has a loaded rifle to hand while eating lunch? Who has dragons in their dining room? Who even has a dining room? I will never understand the English ruling classes.
The fact that you need to ask these questions clearly proves you are not a member of the ruling class.
Thank you. I was arguing with a mate the other day who was trying to prove I was a member of the elite. I will cite this in evidence of my lowly status.
No, you are an odious little shit who tried to smear political opponents.
Been there before with Labour haven't we.
Plus Jo Swinson admits she really isn't that bothered by Democracy, unless it suits her.
What utter bollocks!
Swinson is after more democratic accountability. Johnson, Farage and the ERG, on the other hand, are trying to force a No Deal that nobody voted for through a democratically elected parliament that doesn't support it.
Ah so saying she would not accept leave if it won in a second referendum is accepting more democratic accountability?
What is it about the motormouth, self-important grandiose fantasist, prone to bouts of paranoia and easily roused to violence Mr Yaxley-Lennon, would ever indicate he would do such a thing? Shocked.
Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.
Much as I would like to agree with this, I don't think it's true: at the very least it's unproven, unless there's been some studies I'm unaware of. If somebody put a gun to my head and said "Name one demonstrable difference between Leavers and Remainers", I'd say the former are on average older than the latter.
The key determinant of whether a voter in England chose Leave or Remain is not age, education, social grouping, gender or any of the other of the standard ways of divvying up voter groups. It is in fact national identity:
- people who self-identified as being English voted heavily for Leave - people who self-identified as being British voted heavily for Remain
I bet thats heavily skewed by Londoners who in my experience identify much more heavily with British than English.
No self-respecting Londoner identifies as anything other than a Londoner.
Quite a big recent move in the betting for Starmer as next Labour leader. Very clear favourite now.
I think Starmer could be like Harold Wilson, a very intelligent and capable PM. Its whether Labour is taken back from the margins to a more centre left position where they win. Instead of the hard left where I think it is pretty likely they will not win.
I think Labour could win a GE with a fairly hard left manifesto, but not with Corbyn and all his baggage, and not without coming out firmly for a 2nd Ref.
Agree. Corbyn is an absolute tragedy for the English left. They had waited for their chance for half a century and backed an absolute turkey. It’ll be another half century before they get another chance.
Let's hope so. I don't share your confiidence, however.
On the Times report that Hunt’s digging his heels in (tl;dr - “great office of state or I’m off. Defence is shit”)....
The very leaking of it suggests to me it’ll be the latter. If he backs down and takes defence, or Boris backs down and gives him FCO, Home Sec or DPM... it would now look a tad ropey for the backer-down.
Also popcorn time with Hunt on the back-benches, still pretending he’s OK with no deal.
No, you are an odious little shit who tried to smear political opponents.
Been there before with Labour haven't we.
Plus Jo Swinson admits she really isn't that bothered by Democracy, unless it suits her.
What utter bollocks!
Swinson is after more democratic accountability. Johnson, Farage and the ERG, on the other hand, are trying to force a No Deal that nobody voted for through a democratically elected parliament that doesn't support it.
Ah so saying she would not accept leave if it won in a second referendum is accepting more democratic accountability?
Interesting that 58% of Labour members would support a coalition with the Lib Dems to 33% who wouldn't. Shows that those screaming about Swinson's record aren't the majority.
I absolutely fucking despise what the Labour Party has becomflsee. That I voted for that anal pustule Jezbollah is a shame I will never get over. I stay for 2 reasons - one, putting cretins to the sword relieves my stress levels, two, we need to defeat said cretins
Pretty credible poll IMO - unlike RochdaleP members overwhelmingly like Jeremy (80%) and want him to lead in the next GE (earlier reports that 44% disagreed turn out to have included all don't knows) though they think he handled Brexit badly and have mixed feeling about the antisemitism issue. McDonnell, Starmer and Thornberry are seen as plausible successors, Watson and Phillips not. I think Thornberry would win if there was a selection tomorrow.
My reading of that poll is very different to yours. 56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.
Much as I would like to agree with this, I don't think it's true: at the very least it's unproven, unless there's been some studies I'm unaware of. If somebody put a gun to my head and said "Name one demonstrable difference between Leavers and Remainers", I'd say the former are on average older than the latter.
The key determinant of whether a voter in England chose Leave or Remain is not age, education, social grouping, gender or any of the other of the standard ways of divvying up voter groups. It is in fact national identity:
- people who self-identified as being English voted heavily for Leave - people who self-identified as being British voted heavily for Remain
I bet thats heavily skewed by Londoners who in my experience identify much more heavily with British than English.
No self-respecting Londoner identifies as anything other than a Londoner.
And why not? I'm Lestoh, then English. Best county in the best country!
I wonder if Boris is going to evict the Downing street cat? If he does it will be the first pussy he has turned away!
Isn’t the cat essential for controlling the rodents resident in such an old building? I’ll leave it to others to make rat jokes.
I remember reading a story in one newspaper that stated when David Cameron was PM he was in a 'working dinner' and a mouse popped out of a crack in the wall and he was so incensed he throw a fork at it!
A cousin of mine was having lunch once and he saw a mouse climbing over a painting. So he picked up his rifle (which happened to be to hand... @topping) and shot it.
Unfortunately he was drunk....
There is still a missing ear off one of the dragons in the dining room...
Peak Charles
I know. And raises so many unanswered questions. Like who is drunk at lunchtime? Who has a loaded rifle to hand while eating lunch? Who has dragons in their dining room? Who even has a dining room? I will never understand the English ruling classes.
This was back in the 40s when things were a little less serious than they are today
Wait they had actual dragons in the 1940s?
Dragon supporters around a shield. Sizeable little buggers.
On the Times report that Hunt’s digging his heels in (tl;dr - “great office of state or I’m off. Defence is shit”)....
The very leaking of it suggests to me it’ll be the latter. If he backs down and takes defence, or Boris backs down and gives him FCO, Home Sec or DPM... it would now look a tad ropey for the backer-down.
Also popcorn time with Hunt on the back-benches, still pretending he’s OK with no deal.
I honestly don't know if he would be ok with no deal or not, I know reputations are exageratted but I feel like he has adopted every position under the sun on that score. Not that Boris has not shifted about plenty too of course.
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
Yes, that was what stopped us leaving, May having voted remain. Not Baker, Francois and co and their remainiac counterparts in the Grievers not voting for us to leave.
The rewriting of history on this one is going to be intense - we already had that ridiculousness yesterday with 'the ERG' supposedly being against the WA, despite the majority of the ERG voting for it.
On the Times report that Hunt’s digging his heels in (tl;dr - “great office of state or I’m off. Defence is shit”)....
The very leaking of it suggests to me it’ll be the latter. If he backs down and takes defence, or Boris backs down and gives him FCO, Home Sec or DPM... it would now look a tad ropey for the backer-down.
Also popcorn time with Hunt on the back-benches, still pretending he’s OK with no deal.
Ruth Davidson backed Hunt (and Gove, and Javid) for a reason. The last thing Johnson needs is another senior Tory in the backbench awkward squad.
No, you are an odious little shit who tried to smear political opponents.
Been there before with Labour haven't we.
Plus Jo Swinson admits she really isn't that bothered by Democracy, unless it suits her.
What utter bollocks!
Swinson is after more democratic accountability. Johnson, Farage and the ERG, on the other hand, are trying to force a No Deal that nobody voted for through a democratically elected parliament that doesn't support it.
Unfortunately if the report she said she would not allow leave even if a second referendum backed it are true, thus making its rebrand of being a 'final say' a lie, then neither of those groups, including her, can claim a moral highground on democratic accountability. Fair enough if she simply will never countenance aiding the action of leaving, and says so, but it does remove a plank of the argument in its favour since it would not be about wanting the public to give their view, but wanting them to give the right answer.
An answer I would vote for now, if given the chance, but she can get off her high horse if she cares not for the outcome unless it pleases her.
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
Theresa May's snap election; Gordon Brown's election that never was; Ted Heath's who governs Britain? election. An encyclopaedic alternative history could be written based on wrong election calls. Will Boris yield to temptation?
Boris 'Iron Discipline' Johnson, yielding to temptation? I cannot see it.
Though I don't think a GE will necessarily be of his own choice, frankly.
With a compliant right wing press Bozo just has to change the name backstop to something different and they’ll be espousing how the great leader beat the EU and delivered independence !
Leavers must realize that unless Bozo can dupe everyone then Brexit hits the buffers with him.
If he can’t deliver it no one can . For Leavers a Bozo failure isn’t an option .
On the Times report that Hunt’s digging his heels in (tl;dr - “great office of state or I’m off. Defence is shit”)....
The very leaking of it suggests to me it’ll be the latter. If he backs down and takes defence, or Boris backs down and gives him FCO, Home Sec or DPM... it would now look a tad ropey for the backer-down.
Also popcorn time with Hunt on the back-benches, still pretending he’s OK with no deal.
Ruth Davidson backed Hunt (and Gove, and Javid) for a reason. The last thing Johnson needs is another senior Tory in the backbench awkward squad.
But Boris himself knows that having a senior Tory in the Cabinet awkward squad is no good either, since he was in that awkward squad for a time.
He might as well can Hunt. What are the MPs going to do about it? He'd already struggle to pass anything, so his troubles are not really much worse, and a lot of his backers in parliament seem to do so on the basis that even if they dislike him personally he is more popular with them and their best chance of retaining their seats, and that would still be the case.
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
Yepp. We saw the same thing in Scotland in 2017: Tory supporters who for decades had voted tactically for the local Lib Dem just suddenly stopped, and actually voted for their first preference.
The SLD to SCon unwind was a thing of wonder. Of course, we are now looking at the unwind suddenly re-winding. Which would totally screw #RuthForFm
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
Yepp. We saw the same thing in Scotland in 2017: Tory supporters who for decades had voted tactically for the local Lib Dem just suddenly stopped, and actually voted for their first preference.
The SLD to SCon unwind was a thing of wonder. Of course, we are now looking at the unwind suddenly re-winding. Which would totally screw #RuthForFm
The shifts in Scotland in recent elections has been something to behold, and does seem like it could continue - from an outsider's perspective it look slike one area where what look like pretty sizable majorities on paper may be vulnerable.
Which could be good news, since betting on scottish seats last time made up for me being wrong in my bets almost everywhere else. Good times.
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
I noticed the story was in both Daily Express, Daily Mail and possibly other media . Seems more like a party political media strategy given its appeared quickly in the media and the right wing press. Its not a quiet media at the moment as a change of PM is happening! Who is fanning the flames? The individual doing the twitter is a story but a disgruntled employee happens all the time in political parties for differing reasons. This feels co-ordinated.
A cousin of mine was having lunch once and he saw a mouse climbing over a painting. So he picked up his rifle (which happened to be to hand... @topping) and shot it.
Unfortunately he was drunk....
There is still a missing ear off one of the dragons in the dining room...
Normally I would not have to ask this question, but in this case I do have to ask: we are talking about pretend dragons, right?
I absolutely fucking despise what the Labour Party has become. That I voted for that anal pustule Jezbollah is a shame I will never get over. I stay for 2 reasons - one, putting cretins to the sword relieves my stress levels, two, we need to defeat said cretins
I have never forgiven myself for voting for Blair in the 1994 Leadership election that follwed John Smith's death. I did not,however, renew my membership at the beginning of 1997 and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.
So, you’ve been voting Scottish Liberal Democrat for two decades? Or are you a Tommy Sheridan man?
With a compliant right wing press Bozo just has to change the name backstop to something different and they’ll be espousing how the great leader beat the EU and delivered independence !
Leavers must realize that unless Bozo can dupe everyone then Brexit hits the buffers with him.
If he can’t deliver it no one can . For Leavers a Bozo failure isn’t an option .
The suggestion to rename it something else and play it as a victory has been made before, and runs into the recurring problem that no dealers, remainers and the EU can read the papers and twitter, and immediately Barner, Farage and Baker et al would pop up and say ' You do know it is just the backstop, right?'.
I don't know how Boris can sell something trivial and convince parliament to back it, and I don't believe he can get something that is not trivial from the EU. If the EU could be persuaded to pretend to concede something big for 5 minutes that might do it.
But if he can pull it off and sell something trivial, or actually achieve something, I'll give such credit as is appropriate.
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
I noticed the story was in both Daily Express, Daily Mail and possibly other media . Seems more like a party political media strategy given its appeared quickly in the media and the right wing press. Its not a quiet media at the moment as a change of PM is happening! Who is fanning the flames? The individual doing the twitter is a story but a disgruntled employee happens all the time in political parties for differing reasons. This feels co-ordinated.
Maybe, or it might just be that O'Mara is disliked in political and media circles, with few allies, so a negative story on him is appealing to left and right to some degree.
With a compliant right wing press Bozo just has to change the name backstop to something different and they’ll be espousing how the great leader beat the EU and delivered independence !
Leavers must realize that unless Bozo can dupe everyone then Brexit hits the buffers with him.
If he can’t deliver it no one can . For Leavers a Bozo failure isn’t an option .
The suggestion to remain it something else and play it as a victory has been made before, and runs into the recurring problem that no dealers, remainers and the EU can read the papers and twitter, and immediately Barner, Farage and Baker et al would pop up and say ' You do know it is just the backstop, right?'.
I don't know how Boris can sell something trivial and convince parliament to back it, and I don't believe he can get something that is not trivial from the EU. If the EU could be persuaded to pretend to concede something big for 5 minutes that might do it.
But if he can pull it off and sell something trivial, or actually achieve something, I'll give such credit as is appropriate.
Agreed , I can’t stand Johnson but if he gets a deal and an orderly exit I’ll say fair enough.
The danger for him is that the EU decide to go all in with deciding if they can finish off another Tory PM then Brexit will hit the buffers with him.
It should be mentioned May's Tories won most votes and seats at every national election she fought, the 2017, 2018 and 2019 local council elections and the 2017 general election bar the European Parliament elections this year
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
Yepp. We saw the same thing in Scotland in 2017: Tory supporters who for decades had voted tactically for the local Lib Dem just suddenly stopped, and actually voted for their first preference.
The SLD to SCon unwind was a thing of wonder. Of course, we are now looking at the unwind suddenly re-winding. Which would totally screw #RuthForFm
Holyrood is partly PR so tactical voting matters less than Westminster elections
Good question really. Those LDs who survived the 2015 rout only to lose in 2017 are some unlucky folk, particularly in his case. Tories didn't fancy saving him a second time I guess.
I noticed the story was in both Daily Express, Daily Mail and possibly other media . Seems more like a party political media strategy given its appeared quickly in the media and the right wing press. Its not a quiet media at the moment as a change of PM is happening! Who is fanning the flames? The individual doing the twitter is a story but a disgruntled employee happens all the time in political parties for differing reasons. This feels co-ordinated.
Maybe, or it might just be that O'Mara is disliked in political and media circles, with few allies, so a negative story on him is appealing to left and right to some degree.
Indeed, But I doubt media people will have had much interaction with him to gain a dislike? MPs, I could understand on the other hand as he brigs all MPs into disrepute IMO.
I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.
When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were
Great points. But there is something important you may be missing.
Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.
So if the next election revolves around tactical voting it is more likely to work to the advantage of Labour and Lib Dem than Con and BP.
Voting remain is a mark of intelligence. Not sure how “generally accepted” that’ll be around here.
It's generally accepted amongst we members of the Remainer intelligentsia
If it exists, where was said intelligence in 83 and 87?
No nothing important I’m missing, just emphasise two factors in how the sequence of four dates work. Firstly FPTP is on the side of plurality, not the majority. Secondly tactical voting between a Labour/lib/green majority anywhere depends on those in other party stomaching the leader of the party they are going to lend vote to, they cannot fear that leader as PM or that party to trash economy if in power, or loath them for a previous coalition with hated rival.
I have just answered my question above. 83 and 87 was win for plurality over majority because such fears and loathing existed amongst the majority, and it will be exactly the same in the coming election and the one after. Fear and loathing trumps whatever you are calling intelligence every day of the week but particularly on Thursdays.
I absolutely fucking despise what the Labour Party has becomflsee. That I voted for that anal pustule Jezbollah is a shame I will never get over. I stay for 2 reasons - one, putting cretins to the sword relieves my stress levels, two, we need to defeat said cretins
Pretty credible poll IMO - unlike RochdaleP members overwhelmingly like Jeremy (80%) and want him to lead in the next GE (earlier reports that 44% disagreed turn out to have included all don't knows) though they think he handled Brexit badly and have mixed feeling about the antisemitism issue. McDonnell, Starmer and Thornberry are seen as plausible successors, Watson and Phillips not. I think Thornberry would win if there was a selection tomorrow.
My reading of that poll is very different to yours. 56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
It should be mentioned May's Tories won most votes and seats at every national election she fought, the 2017, 2018 and 2019 local council elections and the 2017 general election bar the European Parliament elections this year
That just shows why you should not underestimate the power of FPTP elections and think the Brexit party could easily break through.
It should be mentioned May's Tories won most votes and seats at every national election she fought, the 2017, 2018 and 2019 local council elections and the 2017 general election bar the European Parliament elections this year
That just shows why you should not underestimate the power of FPTP elections and think the Brexit party could easily break through.
Provided the Tories deliver Brexit by October 31st they won't, if they don't they will
Gratifying to see that the anti-LGBT protests which spread to Nottingham yesterday have been met by a much larger counter protest today. And that local MP Lillian Greenwood has been at the forefront of making a stand. Credit where it is due.
Quite a big recent move in the betting for Starmer as next Labour leader. Very clear favourite now.
I think Starmer could be like Harold Wilson, a very intelligent and capable PM. Its whether Labour is taken back from the margins to a more centre left position where they win. Instead of the hard left where I think it is pretty likely they will not win.
Starmer is Bill Shorten with even less charisma and not fit to tie Harold Wilson's shoelaces
56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
If there is one thing my long, hard political apprenticeship taught me, it is never, ever, ever underestimate the Scottish Labour Party. They may be down HY, but they are not out.
It is worth noting that in the Most Seats market for the next Holyrood general election, SLab and SCon share the same price (7/1). It would surprise few if SCon drops back to third place again.
Labour for Independence was important last time, but it could be decisive this time.
Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.
Much as I would like to agree with this, I don't think it's true: at the very least it's unproven, unless there's been some studies I'm unaware of. If somebody put a gun to my head and said "Name one demonstrable difference between Leavers and Remainers", I'd say the former are on average older than the latter.
The key determinant of whether a voter in England chose Leave or Remain is not age, education, social grouping, gender or any of the other of the standard ways of divvying up voter groups. It is in fact national identity:
- people who self-identified as being English voted heavily for Leave - people who self-identified as being British voted heavily for Remain
I bet thats heavily skewed by Londoners who in my experience identify much more heavily with British than English.
No self-respecting Londoner identifies as anything other than a Londoner.
And why not? I'm Lestoh, then English. Best county in the best country!
I have Googled this, and believe you are from somewhere so far North, it gives me a headache just thinking about it.
Meanwhile, my best wishes to you and your family. I hope the situation improves soon.
56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
If there is one thing my long, hard political apprenticeship taught me, it is never, ever, ever underestimate the Scottish Labour Party. They may be down HY, but they are not out.
It is worth noting that in the Most Seats market for the next Holyrood general election, SLab and SCon share the same price (7/1). It would surprise few if SCon drops back to third place again.
Labour for Independence was important last time, but it could be decisive this time.
SLAB are now the most utterly useless pathetic excuse for a party in the country, even the Loonies have more credibility.
Once Boris wins back Brexit Party voters in Scotland the Scottish Tories will be back over 20% soon enough while Swinson as leader will ensure the LDs beat Labour in Scotland at the next general election too
56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
If there is one thing my long, hard political apprenticeship taught me, it is never, ever, ever underestimate the Scottish Labour Party. They may be down HY, but they are not out.
It is worth noting that in the Most Seats market for the next Holyrood general election, SLab and SCon share the same price (7/1). It would surprise few if SCon drops back to third place again.
Labour for Independence was important last time, but it could be decisive this time.
If sympathy within the broader Labour Party for Scottish independence could be translated into a progressive case for English independence, it would be a significant milestone. So far it’s mainly in the negative form of “I don’t blame them for wanting to leave”.
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland and the locals results simply confirmed the big poll leads were right and calling a GE was a solid banker she couldn’t lose. The history people believe is that she messed up the campaign, Dementia tax, u turn, robotic campaigning. But that’s not the true history of what really happened.
If the polls read it wrong, how did Copeland and the locals happen? The truth is a GE is a different kind of election than Euro, bi election, locals, in those you can protest vote or simply vote how you want to, just like you told the pollster the day before. In a GE you can’t. On the day it’s fear and loathing that decides your vote. Not who you want in, or who out of many options you like, but what you can do yourself to kick someone out or keep them out. And in 2017 the loath factor was the promise no deal would be better than a bad deal, and fear of being one of the saboteurs the election was designed to crush. That is what really happened.
Does anyone seriously expect Priti Patel to be appointed Home Secretary tomorrow?
Christ I hope not. The last thing we need is a Home Secretary who actually believes the best way to deal with serious criminals is to kill them. She strikes me as the reincarnation of Papal Legate Arnaud Amalric.
Does anyone seriously expect Priti Patel to be appointed Home Secretary tomorrow?
Christ I hope not. The last thing we need is a Home Secretary who actually believes the best way to deal with serious criminals is to kill them. She strikes me as the reincarnation of Papal Legate Arnaud Amalric.
Only with the “ultimate burden of proof”, i.e. if the Sun Says we should hang them.
Does anyone seriously expect Priti Patel to be appointed Home Secretary tomorrow?
Christ I hope not. The last thing we need is a Home Secretary who actually believes the best way to deal with serious criminals is to kill them. She strikes me as the reincarnation of Papal Legate Arnaud Amalric.
A cousin of mine was having lunch once and he saw a mouse climbing over a painting. So he picked up his rifle (which happened to be to hand... @topping) and shot it.
Unfortunately he was drunk....
There is still a missing ear off one of the dragons in the dining room...
Normally I would not have to ask this question, but in this case I do have to ask: we are talking about pretend dragons, right?
Does anyone seriously expect Priti Patel to be appointed Home Secretary tomorrow?
Christ I hope not. The last thing we need is a Home Secretary who actually believes the best way to deal with serious criminals is to kill them. She strikes me as the reincarnation of Papal Legate Arnaud Amalric.
Only with the “ultimate burden of proof”, i.e. if the Sun Says we should hang them.
Oh that's alright then. I was worrying about nothing....
56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
If there is one thing my long, hard political apprenticeship taught me, it is never, ever, ever underestimate the Scottish Labour Party. They may be down HY, but they are not out.
It is worth noting that in the Most Seats market for the next Holyrood general election, SLab and SCon share the same price (7/1). It would surprise few if SCon drops back to third place again.
Labour for Independence was important last time, but it could be decisive this time.
SLAB are now the most utterly useless pathetic excuse for a party in the country, even the Loonies have more credibility.
Once Boris wins back Brexit Party voters in Scotland the Scottish Tories will be back over 20% soon enough while Swinson as leader will ensure the LDs beat Labour in Scotland at the next general election too
Quite something to see a Tory accuse another party of being an “utterly useless pathetic excuse for a party”. After the three years you’ve just subjected everyone to.
O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us! It wad frae mony a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.
Why should Priti Patel be given anything at all? A liar. Really quite dim. And no record of achievement at all.
Is the bar really that low?
She believes in Brexit and she believes in Boris and she is tough
On that basis Andrea Jenkyns and Nadine Dorries should be in the cabinet.
They may yet be
How about Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen?
Junior Ministers, who knows
These are people so thick they should be at the back of the class doing something simple with raffia baskets. Not anywhere near government or knives or boiling water.
56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
If there is one thing my long, hard political apprenticeship taught me, it is never, ever, ever underestimate the Scottish Labour Party. They may be down HY, but they are not out.
It is worth noting that in the Most Seats market for the next Holyrood general election, SLab and SCon share the same price (7/1). It would surprise few if SCon drops back to third place again.
Labour for Independence was important last time, but it could be decisive this time.
If sympathy within the broader Labour Party for Scottish independence could be translated into a progressive case for English independence, it would be a significant milestone. So far it’s mainly in the negative form of “I don’t blame them for wanting to leave”.
I absolutely fucking despise what the Labour Party has becomflsee. That I voted for that anal pustule Jezbollah is a shame I will never get over. I stay for 2 reasons - one, putting cretins to the sword relieves my stress levels, two, we need to defeat said cretins
Pretty credible poll IMO - unlike RochdaleP members overwhelmingly like Jeremy (80%) and want him to lead in the next GE (earlier reports that 44% disagreed turn out to have included all don't knows) though they think he handled Brexit badly and have mixed feeling about the antisemitism issue. McDonnell, Starmer and Thornberry are seen as plausible successors, Watson and Phillips not. I think Thornberry would win if there was a selection tomorrow.
My reading of that poll is very different to yours. 56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
Some polls have Labour in the 17% - 20% range - and in second place.
Unexpected amount of liquidity on the Betfair next Chancellor market. Javid massive favourite, but offering Gove at 50 seems generous.
Foreign sec is the senior person you don’t like, you keep on board but out the money loop. Similar home sec. Chancellor has to implement your policy, not their own. I don’t think Javid or Gove are that close to Boris for him to work with as chancellor. The chancellor appointment might be the surprise one. IDS perhaps. Or someone over promoted to do his bidding, like Truss. Javid as foreign sec I wouldn’t rule out.
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland and the locals results simply confirmed the big poll leads were right and calling a GE was a solid banker she couldn’t lose. The history people believe is that she messed up the campaign, Dementia tax, u turn, robotic campaigning. But that’s not the true history of what really happened.
If the polls read it wrong, how did Copeland and the locals happen? The truth is a GE is a different kind of election than Euro, bi election, locals, in those you can protest vote or simply vote how you want to, just like you told the pollster the day before. In a GE you can’t. On the day it’s fear and loathing that decides your vote. Not who you want in, or who out of many options you like, but what you can do yourself to kick someone out or keep them out. And in 2017 the loath factor was the promise no deal would be better than a bad deal, and fear of being one of the saboteurs the election was designed to crush. That is what really happened.
The Locals in May 2017 failed to confirm the poll findings then being recorded - and suggested a circa 11% Tory lead ie barely half what several pollsters were then implying.
Why should Priti Patel be given anything at all? A liar. Really quite dim. And no record of achievement at all.
Is the bar really that low?
She believes in Brexit and she believes in Boris and she is tough
On that basis Andrea Jenkyns and Nadine Dorries should be in the cabinet.
They may yet be
How about Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen?
Junior Ministers, who knows
These are people so thick they should be at the back of the class doing something simple with raffia baskets. Not anywhere near government or knives or boiling water.
Like it’s now coming as surprise his first and best backers, his friends closest allies and campaign team, are going to get profile roles in his administration?
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland and the locals results simply confirmed the big poll leads were right and calling a GE was a solid banker she couldn’t lose. The history people believe is that she messed up the campaign, Dementia tax, u turn, robotic campaigning. But that’s not the true history of what really happened.
If the polls read it wrong, how did Copeland and the locals happen? The truth is a GE is a different kind of election than Euro, bi election, locals, in those you can protest vote or simply vote how you want to, just like you told the pollster the day before. In a GE you can’t. On the day it’s fear and loathing that decides your vote. Not who you want in, or who out of many options you like, but what you can do yourself to kick someone out or keep them out. And in 2017 the loath factor was the promise no deal would be better than a bad deal, and fear of being one of the saboteurs the election was designed to crush. That is what really happened.
The Locals in May 2017 failed to confirm the poll findings then being recorded - and suggested a circa 11% Tory lead ie barely half what several pollsters were then implying.
The Tories got 38% in the local elections, lower than the 42% they got in the general election.
However the 18% that voted LD mainly went Labour and that is unlikely to be repeated again
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland was an impressive result for May, for a governing party to gain a seat off the main opposition after seven years in power was pretty amazing. Her sole electoral achievement.
The local elections before the GE were strong as hell too
Copeland and the locals results simply confirmed the big poll leads were right and calling a GE was a solid banker she couldn’t lose. The history people believe is that she messed up the campaign, Dementia tax, u turn, robotic campaigning. But that’s not the true history of what really happened.
If the polls read it wrong, how did Copeland and the locals happen? The truth is a GE is a different kind of election than Euro, bi election, locals, in those you can protest vote or simply vote how you want to, just like you told the pollster the day before. In a GE you can’t. On the day it’s fear and loathing that decides your vote. Not who you want in, or who out of many options you like, but what you can do yourself to kick someone out or keep them out. And in 2017 the loath factor was the promise no deal would be better than a bad deal, and fear of being one of the saboteurs the election was designed to crush. That is what really happened.
The Locals in May 2017 failed to confirm the poll findings then being recorded - and suggested a circa 11% Tory lead ie barely half what several pollsters were then implying.
@twistedfirestopper3 read your post on the last thread, all the very best to you and your missus. Insofar as I have a fcking clue, tell your kids as soon as you feel it's right (in my vaguely approximate experience you'll probably know).
Just caught up with this news from @twistedfirestopper3. Awful. Let's keep our collective fingers crossed on the treatment.
Why should Priti Patel be given anything at all? A liar. Really quite dim. And no record of achievement at all.
Is the bar really that low?
When Trump and Johnson are heads of state, the main settings on the high jump bar are clearly very low.
Johnson will never be Head of State!
And yet he is. Look at how Trump introduced him ; from one incarnation of America to his favoured incarnation of Britain. Even Thatcher and Blair didn't allow such assumptions to be entertained to the same extent.
Thatcher entertained the delusion of a royal "we" towards the end of her political life, but it was always counterbalanced by her conscious "us against them", "the enemy within", etc. Boris and Trump both believe he *is* Britain.
Why should Priti Patel be given anything at all? A liar. Really quite dim. And no record of achievement at all.
Is the bar really that low?
When Trump and Johnson are heads of state, the main settings on the high jump bar are clearly very low.
Johnson will never be Head of State!
And yet he is. Look at how Trump introduced him ; from one incarnation of America to his favoured incarnation of Britain. Even Thatcher and Blair didn't allow such assumptions to be entertained to the same extent.
He is head of government. Or will be, tomorrow, probably.
I absolutely fucking despise what the Labour Party has becomflsee. That I voted for that anal pustule Jezbollah is a shame I will never get over. I stay for 2 reasons - one, putting cretins to the sword relieves my stress levels, two, we need to defeat said cretins
Pretty credible poll IMO - unlike RochdaleP members overwhelmingly like Jeremy (80%) and want him to lead in the next GE (earlier reports uld win if there was a selection tomorrow.
My reading of that poll is very different to yours. 56% of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, 43% doing badly, 2% DK. (Back in March it was 80/19/1). 56% want him to be leader at the GE, 39% want him to step down before the GE, 5% DK, (74/22/3 back in March).
So: 1. Anything but "overwhelming". 2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb. 3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March. 4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
I agree with you Wulfrun. I think ex-MP Nick is putting a little gloss on a real turd of a poll for the Labour Party.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
Given the SLAB is polling about 15% max and SLab were just 5th in the European Parliament elections on an abysmal 9% and Scottish Labour members are barely a fraction of that and mainly Marxists now anyway if they do not already vote SNP half the time it is really not that surprising
Some polls have Labour in the 17% - 20% range - and in second place.
The latest Yougov has Labour on 15% in Scotland with the Tories and Brexit Party on 23% combined
Comments
“People in England who feel strongly attached to their English national identity are much more likely to support Brexit than those who do not. Of those who chose the highest value for English identity on a 7-point scale, over 70 per cent voted to leave the UK. Conversely, over 80 per cent amongst those who only emphasise their Englishness slightly (2 on a 7-point scale) voted to remain. National identity mattered strongly in this referendum, but is rarely talked about to the same extent as questions of class or even age, although the divide is much more dramatic and cuts across different socio-economic groups in the population.”
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-black-box-of-brexit-identification-with-englishness-is-the-best-clue/
https://twitter.com/IrvineWelsh/status/1153788541052129280
So:
1. Anything but "overwhelming".
2. Really poor figures for the leader of any party from the group who should be most supportive of him - worse I think even than the figures Ed Miliband achieved amongst members at his lowest ebb.
3. A huge shift in attitudes towards Corbyn since March.
4. And these are the opinions of those who are still in the Labour Party, excluding the many former members who have left in despair at what it has become.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt5q4u6pst/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_w.pdf
Well, its a view........
Shocked.
P. S. Thanks for the kind words about my Mrs. All part of life's shit tapestry I guess.
The very leaking of it suggests to me it’ll be the latter. If he backs down and takes defence, or Boris backs down and gives him FCO, Home Sec or DPM... it would now look a tad ropey for the backer-down.
Also popcorn time with Hunt on the back-benches, still pretending he’s OK with no deal.
Many findings in that poll are astonishing, not least that a third... yes, one third... of SLab members support Scottish independence. Even after the mass-exodus to the SNP and Greens.
All those BritNats who add up SNP+Green support and then chortle that it is less than 50% are falling in the complacency trap. Again.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec4a-2/weather-forecast/328328
The rewriting of history on this one is going to be intense - we already had that ridiculousness yesterday with 'the ERG' supposedly being against the WA, despite the majority of the ERG voting for it.
An answer I would vote for now, if given the chance, but she can get off her high horse if she cares not for the outcome unless it pleases her.
Does anyone now expect Hunt to remain in this government of all the talents?
Though I don't think a GE will necessarily be of his own choice, frankly.
Leavers must realize that unless Bozo can dupe everyone then Brexit hits the buffers with him.
If he can’t deliver it no one can . For Leavers a Bozo failure isn’t an option .
He might as well can Hunt. What are the MPs going to do about it? He'd already struggle to pass anything, so his troubles are not really much worse, and a lot of his backers in parliament seem to do so on the basis that even if they dislike him personally he is more popular with them and their best chance of retaining their seats, and that would still be the case.
The SLD to SCon unwind was a thing of wonder. Of course, we are now looking at the unwind suddenly re-winding. Which would totally screw #RuthForFm
Which could be good news, since betting on scottish seats last time made up for me being wrong in my bets almost everywhere else. Good times.
I don't know how Boris can sell something trivial and convince parliament to back it, and I don't believe he can get something that is not trivial from the EU. If the EU could be persuaded to pretend to concede something big for 5 minutes that might do it.
But if he can pull it off and sell something trivial, or actually achieve something, I'll give such credit as is appropriate.
The danger for him is that the EU decide to go all in with deciding if they can finish off another Tory PM then Brexit will hit the buffers with him.
No nothing important I’m missing, just emphasise two factors in how the sequence of four dates work. Firstly FPTP is on the side of plurality, not the majority. Secondly tactical voting between a Labour/lib/green majority anywhere depends on those in other party stomaching the leader of the party they are going to lend vote to, they cannot fear that leader as PM or that party to trash economy if in power, or loath them for a previous coalition with hated rival.
I have just answered my question above. 83 and 87 was win for plurality over majority because such fears and loathing existed amongst the majority, and it will be exactly the same in the coming election and the one after. Fear and loathing trumps whatever you are calling intelligence every day of the week but particularly on Thursdays.
Is the bar really that low?
Credit where it is due.
It is worth noting that in the Most Seats market for the next Holyrood general election, SLab and SCon share the same price (7/1). It would surprise few if SCon drops back to third place again.
Labour for Independence was important last time, but it could be decisive this time.
Meanwhile, my best wishes to you and your family. I hope the situation improves soon.
Once Boris wins back Brexit Party voters in Scotland the Scottish Tories will be back over 20% soon enough while Swinson as leader will ensure the LDs beat Labour in Scotland at the next general election too
If the polls read it wrong, how did Copeland and the locals happen? The truth is a GE is a different kind of election than Euro, bi election, locals, in those you can protest vote or simply vote how you want to, just like you told the pollster the day before. In a GE you can’t. On the day it’s fear and loathing that decides your vote. Not who you want in, or who out of many options you like, but what you can do yourself to kick someone out or keep them out. And in 2017 the loath factor was the promise no deal would be better than a bad deal, and fear of being one of the saboteurs the election was designed to crush. That is what really happened.
As for the bar, it’s subterranean.
Seriously. Priti Patel?????
But Johnson is paradoxically the most presidential British prime minister ever, in all his unpresidential-ity and naked unprofessionalism.
Not a misspoke but a misread on this occasion.
O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion.
IDS as Chancellor would be very very interesting.
However the 18% that voted LD mainly went Labour and that is unlikely to be repeated again
The most popular animal he is compared to is a snake but his supporters favour a Labrador, followed by a bear if bulldog.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/23/everything-we-know-about-what-public-think-boris-j
However his 31% favourable rating is higher than the 27% for Farage, the 18% for Corbyn and the 9% for Swinson.
Boris leads Corbyn as preferred PM 34% to 20%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/23/everything-we-know-about-what-public-think-boris-j
Thatcher entertained the delusion of a royal "we" towards the end of her political life, but it was always counterbalanced by her conscious "us against them", "the enemy within", etc. Boris and Trump both believe he *is* Britain.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-