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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Gu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian
The November phone poll by ICM for the Guardian is just out and has good news for three of the parties but bad news for the Tories. They’ve now dropped 4 to 30% in what is the worst showing since February.
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Let us hope that 39% is in LD/Con marginals
That more style than substance finding is horrible for Cameron. What's the gender breakdown on that?
September poll The figure in Table 2 was 18% but after eliminating don't Knows became 27% in Table 3 DK's etc were 30%
October poll the figure in Table 2 was 19% but after eliminating Don't Knows became 30% in Table 3 DK's etc were 34%
At this stage before the 2010 election ICM had the Tories on 43 with a 13%
At GE2010 they got 37 - 7 ahead
The changes are
Con -2
Lab -2
LD nc
UKIP +3
More seriously - all the points are pointing the same way at the moment: a solid Labour share, the Tories not so much. That seems to suggest that Labour has hit its maximum; the Tories have a chance to get more. To have any chance of winning, though, they have to see Labour drop below 35%.
Tories and Spurs failing to score against inferior opposition.
You can get 3.89% fixed for 10 years from Yorkshire Bank.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ea566da-4ad4-11e3-8c4c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2kMgRhTZL
More protests today during Armistice Day wreath laying. Hollande copies McCluskey by planing extreme right wingers. Looks as if the eco-tax is not wining hearts or minds.
They are almost always good for a loss of at least 4 points.
Politics in the last 2 years has been about positioning around sound bites there's no money about so what else can they do ? The only thing of import to date is the Indyref and that's just pure dire as a campaign. None of it from PMQs to Hackgate to Falkirk has changed a darned thing and voters don't care that much. The politicos are pretending they're facing up to the crisis but in reality they're just drifting along with the flotsam and jetsam while claiming it's the direction they always said they wanted to go in.
UKIP deputy leader Paul Nuttall said: "The abolition of selective education in Britain has been a hammer blow to the prospects of working class kids. Until we see a grammar school back in every town and city across the UK, Britain's shocking lack of social mobility will go on."
;D
Ed Miliband has, however, shown consistently that he is willing to learn from his mistakes. This is his most significant lesson so far.
It's not the fakery - it's the condescension coupled with my assessment that, while well educated, he is not particularly intelligent or, probably, that he is in the wrong job for the sort of intelligence he has.
But regardless of his qualities, the Tories are in trouble if the polls continue like this and they don't turn them around reasonably soon. Labour will be in trouble when they get into power and actually have to implement some policies - well, my reckoning is we'll all be in trouble, especially if we work, have savings or assets and are not in some favoured interest group, but 'twas ever thus.
I'm seeing Depeche Mode on Friday night.
look at the fundamentals. Is he good because he has the policies to get us out of the mire ? A set of fresh and radical ideas ? Deep insights none of the other politicos have ? fraid not he's as much a product of PPE land as Cameron, and he'll propose the same answers because that's his background and worse there's no money !
You mean he's "good" in the way that Rochdale are above Morecambe in Division 2. But it's still Division 2, it's not actually good. In simple terms what we have is a bit of theatre with the a poor crop of leaders pretending they're doing momentous things when they're doing anything but. Politics as ever is acting for ugly people.
Bad for the Tories.
And terrible for the country.
*sighs*
Or was that in Norway...
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/fin/press-center/press-releases/2013/the-governments-tax-programme-for-2014.html?id=745265
Ed Miliband is a pure calculating politico that clearly has obsessed about politics all his life. While this may give Cameron an advantage in the acting normal stakes (lets be honest neither of them are normal normal) It means he can be lazy and make stupid mistakes. Miliband however really thinks things through. Might make him appear a little unearthly at times but it means when it comes to the long term political battles - press reform for example - he bests Cameron regularly.
At the end of the day Ed Miliband just wants it way more that Cameron. He works harder and thinks things through more. This is the reason why he will be our next PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/arnie-graf-the-sage-who-can-see-ed-miliband-at-no-10-8930921.html
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?232255-Warsaw-Poles-are-attacking-russian-embassy
Event, dear boy; events....
Populus poll out: LAB 39, CON 31, LD 11, UKIP 10, SNP 3
I'm nominating that for fkwit statement of 2013.
"Don't let Labour mess it up again" will be the issue come May 2015, that's been clear for months, it's still clear, it will still resonate and it will still resonate given a 10% + Labour poll lead 3 months from the election, let alone 18 months.
It would be nice to think, in view of the reaction to this poll, that the tories will be free to crow with impunity the next time they have a decent poll (it won't be long), I suspect I will be disappointed.
Did you see Spurs Premier goal of the month competition was the one goal....all the others being pens or a cross.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
There it is with crystal clarity.
Not one poll but the average of all of them and not one snapshot in time but a glaringly obvious trend that has slowed stopped and is now beginning to creep back up since May.
Since we can all but rule out Cammie being ruthless with his chums (replacing the toxic Osbrowne with May for example) that leaves them with praying that either little Ed gets in trouble again or Farage has a Kilroy-Silk like complete implosion.
Clegg will always be toxic so the lib dems are in for a world of pain if they are suicidal enough to leave him as leader for 2015. The less lib dem MPs there are the less chance there is of a hung parliament.
Tristram Hunt:
The Secretary of State is not aware of his own GCSE reforms. He has introduced the soft bigotry of low expectations into our education system. He might have enjoyed studying the works of Jane Austen and Wilfred Owen, but he is denying England’s pupils the same access to our national canon if they take only the English language GCSE. If it was all right for him, at Robert Gordon’s college, why is it not okay for kids in Harlow and Blackpool today? Will he now urgently review the changes to English GCSE, or will he continue to dumb down our syllabus?
Michael Gove:
Tragically, when I was a student at Robert Gordon’s college in Aberdeen, I was not able to take English GCSE, because I was in Scotland and GCSEs were not on offer at that time. As a historian, the hon. Gentleman could perhaps do with studying geography rather more.
Under our new accountability system, which I urge the hon. Gentleman to study and which his colleague, the hon. Member for Cardiff West (Kevin Brennan), welcomed, English will not count unless students study both English language and literature, and the English baccalaureate, which the hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central (Tristram Hunt) supports, will be conferred on students only if they study both English language and literature. He talks about Jane Austen. One of the tragedies about the current English GCSE is that fewer than 1% of students who sit it actually read a word of Jane Austen. Before he asks another question in the House, may I recommend to him one particular text of hers—“Pride and Prejudice”? A knowledge of both things would certainly help him to be a more effective Opposition spokesperson.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/commons/todays-commons-debates/read/unknown/9/#c9
More seriously, can any of the (many) Tories here see a roadmap to victory for their Party?
Their strategy seems to be
1) Dog whistle to the Right
2) Attack Ed Miliband personally during the campaign via the Sun, Mail etc (that went well recently!)
3) Hope for the best on the economy, particularly a politically engineered boomlet.
It's just not good enough. If I was a Tory I'd be seriously worried now.
Lab Maj might not be nailed on, but Tory Maj is certainly, er, nailed off.
SNP winning in Scotland, Tories winning in the Midlands, Labour piling up masses of votes in the already won North (and among the least likely to actually vote). Tories net gainers from LibLab.
There are warning signs all over the numbers.
Ed Miliband is a lot smarter than Cameron. He is also way more political. He puts the hours in. Cameron chillaxes his way through being PM. It's the reason why he keeps on getting caught out. If he wasn't so lazy he wouldn't have called a vote on Syria FFS. It's just lazy to not even canvass your own MPs.
Tory majority I pay up to the charity of your choice, other result you pay up to a charity of my choice. Straight evens, say £20?
" On Cameron personally:
- he needs to get out there much more and get the fundamental message across. Sometimes he is asleep at the switch
- He would do better to have a broader range of voices and opinions to listen to. As my Mum said after sitting next to him a dinner a few months ago "that man doesn't know how to listen"
- It's fine (and healthy) not to have an obsessive PM. But Cameron takes his duties to lightly. His approach is the classic "essay crisis" mode. Most of us grow out of it when we get a job.
- He is too concerned about what his immediate group of friends things - he should govern for the country not West London "
Perhaps you don't feel confident in a Tory majority? It's only 20 quid, go on Scott.
Jesus wept.
WTF are you going to do post his O level certificates ? You still just can't accept that neither of them is any great shakes and neither of them is setting up an agenda that is addressing this country's problems.
Intelligence has little to do with it - the crisis was created by people with Oxbridge degrees and Harvard MBAs. If we had put the country in the hands of white van men with a CSE in woodwork we'd be in better shape.
You seem to think that saying Ed's a hyperactive twat to Dave's lazy twat is a virtue, It's not he's still fundamentally a twat.
Fair enough.
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/52740
Fair enough. Keep posting those Guido links and Tory tweets pal, they really enhance the PB reader experience.
Ed Balls has exactly enough intelligence to delude himself that he knows everything, and not a grain more.
Learn something new every day
If it's televised, lasts long long enough and shown during the day so all the pensioners watch it that would knock at least 20% off the Labour vote permanently. About 1/2 of that wouldn't vote again, of the half that would about half would go LD, 1/3 Ukip and 1/6 Tory.
Of course as a televised show trial like that would trash labour for 20 years or so they'd do and say anything to stop it happening and i doubt the Cameroons would have the bottle for the ****storm.
•Chris Christie (R) 41%
•Some other candidate 9%
•Undecided 8%
Among Independents
•Chris Christie (R) 42%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
"Poor Hollande. Whatever happened to that guy…"
"Don't let Labour mess it up again"
Simple really
And effective at election time, less so mid term. I think I can live with that.
or are you just tight fisted ?
I think the word is "unspoofable"
Hardworking politicians are often the worst sort because often the best govt is the one that does least.
The Coalition is leading Labor 53-47, down from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down two points on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor up one to 32% and the Greens up two to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are still much better than any he enjoyed as Opposition Leader, although he is down two on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 38%. Bill Shorten has made a handy five-point gain on approval to 37%, with disapproval steady at 24%. Preferred prime minister changes only slightly, Abbott’s lead of 47-28 a fortnight ago narrowing to 46-30.
"Don't let Labour Balls it up again".
Although I'm on record somewhere saying the neck-and-neck ICM in September was an outlier. So we'll see.
Falkirk. Look PB Tories no one cares.
Ed must laugh himself silly watching tribal Tories disappear up such an irrelevant cul-de-sac so soon after he scored a massive policy hit as the Great Energy Price Freeze. The wholly inept, raging Tory response has been a wonder to behold. The field is wide open for Ed (he will be a better PM than Cameron ever could).
Plenty of time to score own goals of course but the Tories are the ones laying off the suicidal back passes right now.
OK OK OK I get it. Now go away, I'm sure there must be some interesting tweets out there from Guido and Tory HQ that we've all missed you can copy and paste here.
One other interesting point about Norway is that I believe the tax on house sales/purchases is paid by the seller as a capital gains tax on the change in value of the property since it was acquired rather than being paid by the purchaser.
I was just wondering what people think of this and whether it would be a better way of taxing house sales. Would it perhaps help liquidity in the UK housing market if the purchaser was not having to pay out stamp duty on top of sales. I realise the seller may well just add the tax onto the sale price to compensate but if they wanted a quick sale this might not be the case.