This is hard to do well but is the day-to-day job of any investigator, police force etc. If you can't or won't do this you have no business doing that job.
Why the police behaved like such boobies I don't know. I'm guessing it was a combination of panic / political arse-licking / desire to be associated with a high profile case to make a name for themselves / plain bloody incompetence and second-rateness.
It's been years since I read it, but I recall being pretty stunned by the attitude of many senior police officers in the Henriques report on the investigations. The idea of not expecting people to prove themselves innocent seemed bizarre to the police, the emphasis on believing accusations, insisting that accusers be referred to as victims even without proof (the police seemed to think this would harm trust in the authorities to not do so, but the judge was not persuaded and no one qualified seemed to have a problem with that - even complainants themselves did not expect to be instantly believed, he said), it was a shocking read.
It goes wrong when you confuse investigation with therapy and call those making allegations victims, which seems to assume what you are seeking to prove.
Investigators are not therapists. If you confuse the two you get into trouble. While you need a great deal of emotional intelligence to be a good investigator, there also - as Graham Greene said about novelists - needs be a sliver of ice in the heart enabling you to see clearly and not be swayed by unnecessary sympathies.
The police forgot that their role is to investigate and started turning into therapists. Others should have done that. One hopes that they have learnt the lesson but given the abysmal sentimentality which infests so much public decision-making I am not confident.
A salutary lesson for all those who view Tom Watson as some sort of saviour of the Labour party, and by extension, British politics. He's effective, sure, but a nasty piece of work.
Meanwhile @Cyclefree has once again forgotten that her job is much harder than she gives credit for, and if it wasn't then it would be harder to make a decent living at.
A salutary lesson for all those who view Tom Watson as some sort of saviour of the Labour party, and by extension, British politics. He's effective, sure, but a nasty piece of work.
Meanwhile @Cyclefree has once again forgotten that her job is much harder than she gives credit for, and if it wasn't then it would be harder to make a decent living at.
I'm taking that as some sort of compliment. (I hope.)
On topic, that would be an absolutely appalling result for both our traditional "main" parties. If the Tories had picked a proper candidate then they'd probably be a better than expected Boris bounce away from holding on. As it is, they're on course to do marginally worse in relative terms (in my entirely subjective opinion) than Labour. Who have absolutely no excuse, or much room to surprise on the upside.
On topic, that would be an absolutely appalling result for both our traditional "main" parties. If the Tories had picked a proper candidate then they'd probably be a better than expected Boris bounce away from holding on. As it is, they're on course to do marginally worse in relative terms (in my entirely subjective opinion) than Labour. Who have absolutely no excuse, or much room to surprise on the upside.
Given they were unlikely to hold the seat anyway and Davies could have stood as an independent and split the vote the Tories can make him the fall guy for any defeat having given him his chance and select a fresh candidate for the general election.
However even now Tories + Brexit Party is more than LD in Brecon so a Boris bounce could make it closer
This is hard to do well but is the day-to-day job of any investigator, police force etc. If you can't or won't do this you have no business doing that job.
Why the police behaved like such boobies I don't know. I'm guessing it was a combination of panic / political arse-licking / desire to be associated with a high profile case to make a name for themselves / plain bloody incompetence and second-rateness.
It's been years since I read it, but I recall being pretty stunned by the attitude of many senior police officers in the Henriques report on the investigations. The idea of not expecting people to prove themselves innocent seemed bizarre to the police, the emphasis on believing accusations, insisting that accusers be referred to as victims even without proof (the police seemed to think this would harm trust in the authorities to not do so, but the judge was not persuaded and no one qualified seemed to have a problem with that - even complainants themselves did not expect to be instantly believed, he said), it was a shocking read.
It goes wrong when you confuse investigation with therapy and call those making allegations victims, which seems to assume what you are seeking to prove.
Investigators are not therapists. If you confuse the two you get into trouble. While you need a great deal of emotional intelligence to be a good investigator, there also - as Graham Greene said about novelists - needs be a sliver of ice in the heart enabling you to see clearly and not be swayed by unnecessary sympathies.
The police forgot that their role is to investigate and started turning into therapists. Others should have done that. One hopes that they have learnt the lesson but given the abysmal sentimentality which infests so much public decision-making I am not confident.
In the mid 1980s I heard the same story about one of Beech's victims at political social events in London and a few years later in Cardiff. If I heard the story I daresay the police did too. Proctor had a conviction, albeit for something that would barely raise an eyebrow now. Private Eye ran stories about Kincora and The Elms, and all this salacious gossip gained traction with the advent of the internet. Easy pickings for the boys in blue?
It wouldn't have taken much research by Carl Beech to make his own fantasy appear plausible. One would have thought anything other than lazy policing would have tumbled his game at an early stage.
To be fair, it does rather inspire confidence in the judicary of South Africa, that this judge is willing to expose criminality by a well connected politician.
Would such a verdict get made here...I guess we will find out in time.
Swinson is a good choice for the Lib Dems. Young and energetic, telegenic and plausible.
She will take a lot of votes off Remainery Labourites.
Very unlikely I suspect. Her Tory -led Coalition CV is far too strong. She also comes across as pretty lightweight - the Libdems would have done better to stick with Vince.
Swinson is a good choice for the Lib Dems. Young and energetic, telegenic and plausible.
She will take a lot of votes off Remainery Labourites.
Very unlikely I suspect. Her Tory -led Coalition CV is far too strong. She also comes across as pretty lightweight - the Libdems would have done better to stick with Vince.
My parents voted for Davey as they worried about her youth and being Scottish. I however think she will energise the student vote again which is important for the street fighting Lib Dem’s. She has the energy and courage that vince did not have. Compared to Corbyn she is a much more likeable and charasmatic voice for remain and unlike Corbyn she is a true believer
Swinson is a good choice for the Lib Dems. Young and energetic, telegenic and plausible.
She will take a lot of votes off Remainery Labourites.
Very unlikely I suspect. Her Tory -led Coalition CV is far too strong. She also comes across as pretty lightweight - the Libdems would have done better to stick with Vince.
Clearly you don't follow the polls. Recent YouGov surveys have the LDs taking 24% of the GE2017 LB vote and 35% of the Remain vote
Interesting to see that the Carl Beech story makes the front page of every newspaper except for the Daily Mirror. In fact, it barely gets a mention on their website.
Interesting to see that the Carl Beech story makes the front page of every newspaper except for the Daily Mirror. In fact, it barely gets a mention on their website.
The LibDems will not be happy that Beech has wiped Jo Swinson off the front pages.
Interesting to see that the Carl Beech story makes the front page of every newspaper except for the Daily Mirror. In fact, it barely gets a mention on their website.
Why, having paid compensation to others unjustly accused, are the Met defending Harvey Proctor’s claim against them ?
Interesting to see that the Carl Beech story makes the front page of every newspaper except for the Daily Mirror. In fact, it barely gets a mention on their website.
Why, having paid compensation to others unjustly accused, are the Met defending Harvey Proctor’s claim against them ?
I had to deal with serious allegations every day of the week. What any competent investigator does is the following:-
- You get an - when you have done all you reasonably can, you make a decision or recommendation and verify / check / confirm this with others. Spell out what is fact and what is your judgment and the basis for it. Be prepared for others to challenge what you have found and your findings. - then write a proper report and pass the matter over to those who take the prosecution or disciplinary forward if that is the decision.
This is hard to do well but is the day-to-day job of any investigator, police force etc. If you can't or won't do this you have no business doing that job.
Why the police behaved like such boobies I don't know. I'm guessing it was a combination of panic / political arse-licking / desire to be associated with a high profile case to make a name for themselves / plain bloody incompetence and second-rateness.
It's been years since I read it, but I recall being pretty stunned by the attitude of many senior police officers in the Henriques report on the investigations. The idea of not expecting people to prove themselves innocent seemed bizarre to the police, the emphasis on believing accusations, insisting that accusers be referred to as victims even without proof (the police seemed to think this would harm trust in the authorities to not do so, but the judge was not persuaded and no one qualified seemed to have a problem with that - even complainants themselves did not expect to be instantly believed, he said), it was a shocking read.
As Henriques states, “since the entire judicial process is engaged in determining whether a ‘complainant is indeed a ‘victim’, such a approach cannot be questioned...”
And two lines later a Chief Constable “strongly opposes this view”. Not just a misguided detective, but the entire organisation appeared to have a deep misconception of the purpose of the justice system.
Judging from my (ex) CLP's Facebook page (a closed site to which I still appear to have access even though my membership has lapsed) a large majority of the active membership considers that there is absolutely no problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party and spends a lot of time posting pretty nasty bile against the minority of members who assert otherwise, let alone those MPs who have spoken out. It's typical of the sort of intolerant crap that has been in evidence since 2015 and has caused a lot of former members to call time on that narrow sect. Good luck with a programme of "political education" in that context.
I had to deal with serious allegations every day of the week. What any competent investigator does is the following:-
- You get an - when you have done all you reasonably can, you make a decision or recommendation and verify / check / confirm this with others. Spell out what is fact and what is your judgment and the basis for it. Be prepared for others to challenge what you have found and your findings. - then write a proper report and pass the matter over to those who take the prosecution or disciplinary forward if that is the decision.
This is hard to do well but is the day-to-day job of any investigator, police force etc. If you can't or won't do this you have no business doing that job.
Why the police behaved like such boobies I don't know. I'm guessing it was a combination of panic / political arse-licking / desire to be associated with a high profile case to make a name for themselves / plain bloody incompetence and second-rateness.
It's been years since I read it, but I recall being pretty stunned by the attitude of many senior police officers in the Henriques report on the investigations. The idea of not expecting people to prove themselves innocent seemed bizarre to the police, the emphasis on believing accusations, insisting that accusers be referred to as victims even without proof (the police seemed to think this would harm trust in the authorities to not do so, but the judge was not persuaded and no one qualified seemed to have a problem with that - even complainants themselves did not expect to be instantly believed, he said), it was a shocking read.
As Henriques states, “since the entire judicial process is engaged in determining whether a ‘complainant is indeed a ‘victim’, such a approach cannot be questioned...”
And two lines later a Chief Constable “strongly opposes this view”. Not just a misguided detective, but the entire organisation appeared to have a deep misconception of the purpose of the justice system.
Swinson is a good choice for the Lib Dems. Young and energetic, telegenic and plausible.
She will take a lot of votes off Remainery Labourites.
Very unlikely I suspect. Her Tory -led Coalition CV is far too strong. She also comes across as pretty lightweight - the Libdems would have done better to stick with Vince.
My parents voted for Davey as they worried about her youth and being Scottish. I however think she will energise the student vote again which is important for the street fighting Lib Dem’s. She has the energy and courage that vince did not have. Compared to Corbyn she is a much more likeable and charasmatic voice for remain and unlike Corbyn she is a true believer
Much as I like Davey, another middle-aged man in a suit is probably not what they need.
Just begun a book by Norman Dixon, entitled On the Psychology of Military Incompetence.
Wondering if the lesson within might be somewhat applicable to modern politics.
Mr. kle4, I was thinking similar things last night. Blindly believing anyone who makes an accusation is not the way a justice system should work. It's insane. (It's practically Cardassian).
I see the UK has joined up with other European countries to create a European navy in the Gulf having been told to look after itself by the US, which had previously instructed the UK to seize an Iranian tanker off the coast of Gibraltar, which we did.
This is hard to do well but is the day-to-day job of any investigator, police force etc. If you can't or won't do this you have no business doing that job.
Why the police behaved like such boobies I don't know. I'm guessing it was a combination of panic / political arse-licking / desire to be associated with a high profile case to make a name for themselves / plain bloody incompetence and second-rateness.
It's been years since I read it, but I recall being pretty stunned by the attitude of many senior police officers in the Henriques report on the investigations. The idea of not expecting people to prove themselves innocent seemed bizarre to the police, the emphasis on believing accusations, insisting that accusers be referred to as victims even without proof (the police seemed to think this would harm trust in the authorities to not do so, but the judge was not persuaded and no one qualified seemed to have a problem with that - even complainants themselves did not expect to be instantly believed, he said), it was a shocking read.
It goes wrong when you confuse investigation with therapy and call those making allegations victims, which seems to assume what you are seeking to prove.
es that they have learnt the lesson but given the abysmal sentimentality which infests so much public decision-making I am not confident.
In the mid 1980s I heard the same story about one of Beech's victims at political social events in London and a few years later in Cardiff. If I heard the story I daresay the police did too. Proctor had a conviction, albeit for something that would barely raise an eyebrow now. Private Eye ran stories about Kincora and The Elms, and all this salacious gossip gained traction with the advent of the internet. Easy pickings for the boys in blue?
It wouldn't have taken much research by Carl Beech to make his own fantasy appear plausible. One would have thought anything other than lazy policing would have tumbled his game at an early stage.
I'd heard similar stories from more than one source that I considered completely reliable, and am sure they were told in good faith. It beggars belief that the Police proceeded on the basis of the testimony of just one witness but I guess we simply have to believe that they did and the accusations were wholly without foundation.
Judging from my (ex) CLP's Facebook page (a closed site to which I still appear to have access even though my membership has lapsed) a large majority of the active membership considers that there is absolutely no problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party and spends a lot of time posting pretty nasty bile against the minority of members who assert otherwise, let alone those MPs who have spoken out. It's typical of the sort of intolerant crap that has been in evidence since 2015 and has caused a lot of former members to call time on that narrow sect. Good luck with a programme of "political education" in that context.
If they can expel the most public and active anti-semite in each CLP it will do a lot to put things to right.
In normal times this would be seen as a great success for British diplomacy and our Foreign Secretary.
In these times ..... it will pass largely unnoticed.
A European Army is unthinkable, but a European Navy ...
The key thing here is that it’s happening after our greatest friend and most reliable ally told us to piss off after we did exactly as we were told when seizing an Iranian tanker. That’s how much the Trump administration values our very, very special relationship. And even now there are credulous Brexit loons who believe we’ll get a great trade deal from the US.
On topic, that would be an absolutely appalling result for both our traditional "main" parties. If the Tories had picked a proper candidate then they'd probably be a better than expected Boris bounce away from holding on. As it is, they're on course to do marginally worse in relative terms (in my entirely subjective opinion) than Labour. Who have absolutely no excuse, or much room to surprise on the upside.
Given they were unlikely to hold the seat anyway and Davies could have stood as an independent and split the vote the Tories can make him the fall guy for any defeat having given him his chance and select a fresh candidate for the general election.
However even now Tories + Brexit Party is more than LD in Brecon so a Boris bounce could make it closer
That's a good point, Tories + Brexit would win if there was only one candidate in Brecon. The flip side is that will be many constituencies in a GE where the two parties will split the vote and let another candidate win.
I see the UK has joined up with other European countries to create a European navy in the Gulf having been told to look after itself by the US, which had previously instructed the UK to seize an Iranian tanker off the coast of Gibraltar, which we did.
It's Mission Accomplished for Iran as the UK won't be seizing another Iranian tanker even if it's got OIL FOR SYRIA painted on side of the hull.
In normal times this would be seen as a great success for British diplomacy and our Foreign Secretary.
In these times ..... it will pass largely unnoticed.
A European Army is unthinkable, but a European Navy ...
The key thing here is that it’s happening after our greatest friend and most reliable ally told us to piss off after we did exactly as we were told when seizing an Iranian tanker. That’s how much the Trump administration values our very, very special relationship. And even now there are credulous Brexit loons who believe we’ll get a great trade deal from the US.
lol
if Trump had done something the left would be screaming about us being dragged in to an American war and being puppets
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I wonder whether Johnson might offer Farage a job? It would have to be a big one but as Farage is a one man band and could deliver his whole Party and Johnson is without scruples it's got to be a possibility.
What job? US Ambassador? Deputy PM with a seat in the Lords?
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I wonder whether Johnson might offer Farage a job? It would have to be a big one but as Farage is a one man band and could deliver his whole Party and Johnson is without scruples it's got to be a possibility.
What job? US Ambassador? Deputy PM with a seat in the Lords?
Don't rule anything out however sleazy. He won't
He won’t want to go to the Lords, for the same reason as Cameron or Blair - they have to declare their sources of income.
Farage will keep doing what he’s doing until Brexit actually happens.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
You're not a Punter if you don't have your bad books.
The important thing is to understand why you got it wrong and avoid making the same mistake again. In Boris's case it was always understood that the Membership would see him home if he got to the run off. It was widely believed however that Conservative MPs wouldn't allow him to get that far. I think this was true for a long time, but after the debacle of the Euros many of them must have decided that he was their only chance of avoiding a disaster at the next election. Any Punter who picked up on that change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
I've backed Verstappen at 10 each way (fifth the odds top three) to be fastest qualifier. Hockenheim's a slow, tight circuit. At Monaco he was third, behind the Mercedes. In Austria, he was third on pace (promoted to second due to Hamilton's penalty). Last time, Silverstone, he was fourth, but that's a much faster circuit than Hockenheim will be.
Gasly's 151 to win. If that had an each way to third, I'd be tempted. He raced very well last time, and 31 for a podium on a circuit that should suit Red Bull would be very tempting. The each way for the win is just to second, though.
Verstappen's also 10 for the win, if it were to third, I'd definitely tip that. It might still be worth a look.
Also, there's rain possible on both days. Odds against on Saturday, about 50/50 or so on race day.
I see that politicians do not understand how to make threats. Nor what principles mean.
If you believe that Johnson is not fit to be PM and that a No Deal exit is not a good idea, then you have ultimately be prepared to vote against the government if that is what your party seeks to enact.
Moaning about how bad it is then falling into line is utterly pointless. Just as pointless as moaning about anti-semitism and doing nothing.
We are going to get buckets of pointless moaning and wailing between now and 31 October. If we could bottle and sell it we could probably earn enough to pay for every lamb in the country to be slaughtered and still have money left over for us all to go on a round the world cruise.
I note the ridiculous Hogan-Howe now sits in the House of Lords. And Steve Roundhouse, one of the senior officers involved in ‘credible and true’ is now DG Operations at the National Crime Agency.
I note the ridiculous Hogan-Howe now sits in the House of Lords. And Steve Roundhouse, one of the senior officers involved in ‘credible and true’ is now DG Operations at the National Crime Agency.
Failing upward.
A lot of policemen are just not very good, very second-rate in fact.
A lot of people in public life are second-rate, at best.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
Lay Rory as an initial strategy?
Rather like the current contest, a lot is going to depend on the timing and circumstances of the next leader’s resignation.
If Boris is forced out by the end of this year, having failed to deliver Brexit but still PM, then the next leader will be an unequivocal no-dealer. Conversely if he gets to 2022 and resigns having lost the election, and a bunch of socialists are running the country, then a more liberal leader in the mould of Rory might have a chance.
You’d want your book set up on the basis of an early contest, so yes, lay Rory as a starting point. Not that I’ll have much available to do so!
I note the ridiculous Hogan-Howe now sits in the House of Lords. And Steve Roundhouse, one of the senior officers involved in ‘credible and true’ is now DG Operations at the National Crime Agency.
Failing upward.
A lot of policemen are just not very good, very second-rate in fact.
A lot of people in public life are second-rate, at best.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
A desire to catch someone high profile, having had Savile reported numerous times with no enquiries made. Natural, but unprofessional.
On a minor scale, I remember being stopped at night for driving too slowly (20 mph or so) through an unfamiliar bit of Derbyshire (I'd been invited to see some badgers by the Badger Trust). The policeman identified me with a malicious grin (I really don't usually think that), said that drunk drivers often drive with exaggerated caution, and was very clearly disappointed to find that I was sober.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
Lay Rory as an initial strategy?
Rather like the current contest, a lot is going to depend on the timing and circumstances of the next leader’s resignation.
If Boris is forced out by the end of this year, having failed to deliver Brexit but still PM, then the next leader will be an unequivocal no-dealer. Conversely if he gets to 2022 and resigns having lost the election, and a bunch of socialists are running the country, then a more liberal leader in the mould of Rory might have a chance.
You’d want your book set up on the basis of an early contest, so yes, lay Rory as a starting point. Not that I’ll have much available to do so!
Rory always seemed an unlikely leader, particularly for the Tory party, and has a better (if still small) chance if the Tory party collapses or splits and re-emerges.
Nevertheless the impact of his leadership campaign will surely fade in coming months, and like 2017 Corbymania his "strolling the streets" campaign is something that wouldn't have the same impact repeated. As a trading bet I reckon laying Rory now makes sense, if his odds are good enough.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
In the end in political betting the favourite usually wins such contests, but the runners and riders change quite frequently. Laying the winner is a great strategy early in a contest, but there is a time to bail out. I am fairly neutral today, would be a big green if Hunt wins.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
You bugger! As @Peter_the_Punter says above, the trick was working out when the wind changed and I missed it until the first round of MP ballots. Probably also because I didn’t want the outcome and would have preferred Hunt or Gove.
Anyway, first politics miss in a while, and the important thing is to learn from one’s mistakes.
(Assuming of course that Hunt doesn’t win, in which case I’ll be in the Maldives next week!)
On the general post/pre- Boris mortem, when I look back on this market I did very well out of backing Hunt at long odds and laying JRM when he was favourite. I made other good bets like laying Davis, Ruth and Raab but panicked and unwound them too early. I'm up but only by £40.
I note the ridiculous Hogan-Howe now sits in the House of Lords. And Steve Roundhouse, one of the senior officers involved in ‘credible and true’ is now DG Operations at the National Crime Agency.
Failing upward.
A lot of policemen are just not very good, very second-rate in fact.
A lot of people in public life are second-rate, at best.
Does this come as a surprise to you?
No. But advancement on the back of public disgrace grates a little.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
That approach of betting big to minimise losses terrifies me. It's so utterly depressing to do, and every so often your original bet comes good, and then you're in a hole many times as big.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
A modest three figure sum for me, but no less welcome for that. It’s a four figure sum if Hunt somehow manages it but that’s vanishingly unlikely.
As soon as Boris looked a very strong runner with the MPs I reversed my position and clawed it back, helped by laying Stewart and, in particular, Leadsom who was ludicrously short for a significant period of time.
On the general post/pre- Boris mortem, when I look back on this market I did very well out of backing Hunt at long odds and laying JRM when he was favourite. I made other good bets like laying Davis, Ruth and Raab but panicked and unwound them too early. I'm up but only by £40.
Yes, laying JRM was the biggest single betting risk I have taken, but it seemed such a sure thing. Its annoying to see all the potential winnings disappear into a Bozo shaped hole.
When giving HY his due kudos for backing the Bozo, we should also remember the long periods when he was posting incessantly about the coming JRM-led Tory party.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
Probably also because I didn’t want the outcome and would have preferred Hunt or Gove.
This might be your problem Sandpit.
Never ever bet with your heart. Only ever your head, and keep it evidence based at all times.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
Probably also because I didn’t want the outcome and would have preferred Hunt or Gove.
This might be your problem Sandpit.
Never ever bet with your heart. Only ever your head, and keep it evidence based at all times.
B&R is a Slam Dunk for Jeremy Corbyns Labour Party. Now that he has finally seen off evil Blairites like Tom Watson the good people of Brecon have seen the Truth and the Light and will flock to support the world's leading scourge of anti-semitism. The final step in His ascension is our brilliant Brexit policy to be Remain whilst in opposition, and when you elect Him to government to pivot to Leave on a special deal that the EU will grant only upon Him
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
You're not a Punter if you don't have your bad books.
The important thing is to understand why you got it wrong and avoid making the same mistake again. In Boris's case it was always understood that the Membership would see him home if he got to the run off. It was widely believed however that Conservative MPs wouldn't allow him to get that far. I think this was true for a long time, but after the debacle of the Euros many of them must have decided that he was their only chance of avoiding a disaster at the next election. Any Punter who picked up on that change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
Yes, that about sums it up.
If it’s any consolidation I’m fairly good at reading the Tory party (which I understand) but less good at reading the Labour Party, which I don’t.
For that I rely on reading the analysis of others who I respect as being more informed and objective than I am.
I see the UK has joined up with other European countries to create a European navy in the Gulf having been told to look after itself by the US, which had previously instructed the UK to seize an Iranian tanker off the coast of Gibraltar, which we did.
It's Mission Accomplished for Iran as the UK won't be seizing another Iranian tanker even if it's got OIL FOR SYRIA painted on side of the hull.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
You're not a Punter if you don't have your bad books.
The important thing is to understand why you got it wrong and avoid making the same mistake again. In Boris's case it was always understood that the Membership would see him home if he got to the run off. It was widely believed however that Conservative MPs wouldn't allow him to get that far. I think this was true for a long time, but after the debacle of the Euros many of them must have decided that he was their only chance of avoiding a disaster at the next election. Any Punter who picked up on that change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
Yes, that about sums it up.
If it’s any consolidation I’m fairly good at reading the Tory party (which I understand) but less good at reading the Labour Party, which I don’t.
For that I rely on reading the analysis of others who I respect as being more informed and objective than I am.
I guess HY had a significant head start on the rest of us in understanding that Tory politicians could be quite definite about something one minute and then quite definite about something different the next.
On a minor scale, I remember being stopped at night for driving too slowly (20 mph or so) through an unfamiliar bit of Derbyshire (I'd been invited to see some badgers by the Badger Trust). The policeman identified me with a malicious grin (I really don't usually think that), said that drunk drivers often drive with exaggerated caution, and was very clearly disappointed to find that I was sober.
Who knew Anna Soubry was previously a constable ?!? ....
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
You're not a Punter if you don't have your bad books.
The important thing is to understand why you got it wrong and avoid making the same mistake again. In Boris's case it was always understood that the Membership would see him home if he got to the run off. It was widely believed however that Conservative MPs wouldn't allow him to get that far. I think this was true for a long time, but after the debacle of the Euros many of them must have decided that he was their only chance of avoiding a disaster at the next election. Any Punter who picked up on that change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
Yes, that about sums it up.
If it’s any consolidation I’m fairly good at reading the Tory party (which I understand) but less good at reading the Labour Party, which I don’t.
For that I rely on reading the analysis of others who I respect as being more informed and objective than I am.
I guess HY had a significant head start on the rest of us in understanding that Tory politicians could be quite definite about something one minute and then quite definite about something different the next.
He was right, and credit to him for that, but for different reasons to those he consistently laid out for years. The facts changed so his prediction came good.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
You're not a Punter if you don't have your bad books.
The importthat change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
Yes, that about sums it up.
If it’s any consolidation I’m fairly good at reading the Tory party (which I understand) but less good at reading the Labour Party, which I don’t.
For that I rely on reading the analysis of others who I respect as being more informed and objective than I am.
I guess HY had a significant head start on the rest of us in understanding that Tory politicians could be quite definite about something one minute and then quite definite about something different the next.
He was right, and credit to him for that, but for different reasons to those he consistently laid out for years. The facts changed so his prediction came good.
Otherwise it’s just a case of stopped clocks.
For a long period, I agree - he told us the age of JRM was nigh and subsequently advanced a whole series of fanciful scenarios for Boris that didn't come to pass.
He did however identify quicker than most that the MPs were going to fold rather than act to keep Boris off the ballot.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
You're not a Punter if you don't have your bad books.
The important thing is to understand why you got it wrong and avoid making the same mistake again. In Boris's case it was always understood that the Membership would see him home if he got to the run off. It was widely believed however that Conservative MPs wouldn't allow him to get that far. I think this was true for a long time, but after the debacle of the Euros many of them must have decided that he was their only chance of avoiding a disaster at the next election. Any Punter who picked up on that change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
Yes, that about sums it up.
If it’s any consolidation I’m fairly good at reading the Tory party (which I understand) but less good at reading the Labour Party, which I don’t.
For that I rely on reading the analysis of others who I respect as being more informed and objective than I am.
I guess HY had a significant head start on the rest of us in understanding that Tory politicians could be quite definite about something one minute and then quite definite about something different the next.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
In the end in political betting the favourite usually wins such contests, but the runners and riders change quite frequently. Laying the winner is a great strategy early in a contest, but there is a time to bail out. I am fairly neutral today, would be a big green if Hunt wins.
Yes. I'm green large on Hunt but unless we have a 2015 10pm moment I'm expecting to lose. I would feel dirty making money from Boris's success.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
How many favourites did you end up laying?
I think I can remember: Rees-Mogg, Davis, Gove and Johnson, of course. Were Raab or Javid ever favourite?
Lay the favourite while there is still time. Sorry, I meant, regarding laying the favourite: while there is still time, check the price graphs for all the runners. Boris has not always been market leader.
So, rebellion in Yorkshire against the new regime.
Will you be tub thumping and bell shaking at Stamford Bridge as the insurgents did in September 1066. Are you a lineal male descendent of Tostig Godwinson ?
It didn't end well for Tostig at the Battle of Stamford Bridge or his brother at Hastings shortly after.
But who is the later day William of Normandy ???? .....
I really cannot recall an ascension of a PM even remotely like this one. I think most people knew that Brown was going to be a disaster in advance but he had a honeymoon, a reasonably united/cowed party and of course a majority.
Boris is taking office with a paper majority (assuming the DUP play nice) of 2-3 but in reality it is obvious from day 1 that he cannot rely upon a significant strand of his own party, just as May couldn't before him. What on earth is he going to do?
Surely he needs to reach out to as many strands of his own party as will give him the time of day. Keeping Hunt as FS would be an obvious starting place. Asking Rory to reconsider is worth the rebuff. Not appointing people who are hated by minority sections of the party for their disloyalty and obsessions makes some sense.
But none of it works. When you have the likes of the absurd Duncan, the obsessed Grieve, the more than semi detached Greening, the I'm really interesting , I just hide it really well Hammond, you could go on most of the day, you are well short of a majority. The only sane thing to do is to identify the battlefield you want to fight on and then contrive a GE. Boris will not be PM in any practical sense until he has had such an election and won it. Which may never happen of course.
Mr. Me, I think Hunt may've been favourite for a time. If not top favourite, certainly in the top three.
A lot of us, and you can see it in this thread, backed Hunt at 3-figure prices and then it was just a matter of greening up. My best bet was Hammond, though, who if the Cabinet had a lick of sense would today be caretaker prime minister in charge of making Brexit go away as an issue.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
How many favourites did you end up laying?
I think I can remember: Rees-Mogg, Davis, Gove and Johnson, of course. Were Raab or Javid ever favourite?
Treating the next Prime Minister market as paired with this one, Jeremy Corbyn too.
My big money makers were Jeremy Corbyn, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Andrea Leadsom, Rory Stewart and David Lidington. Nigel Farage had a flowering for next Prime Minister too that I was happy to sell to. Having got on Jeremy Hunt at long odds, I was able to sell some of that at a big profit. I made a bit from most of the original hopefuls in the story leadership race by selling their delusions. This more than compensated for getting Boris Johnson wrong.
However, I would really welcome a few more Conservative MPs following Sir Alan Duncan’s principled lead. Boris Johnson not being next Prime Minister would turn a nice payout into a bonanza.
I see that politicians do not understand how to make threats. Nor what principles mean.
If you believe that Johnson is not fit to be PM and that a No Deal exit is not a good idea, then you have ultimately be prepared to vote against the government if that is what your party seeks to enact.
Moaning about how bad it is then falling into line is utterly pointless. Just as pointless as moaning about anti-semitism and doing nothing.
We are going to get buckets of pointless moaning and wailing between now and 31 October. If we could bottle and sell it we could probably earn enough to pay for every lamb in the country to be slaughtered and still have money left over for us all to go on a round the world cruise.
Indeed so. Whether it's those against no deal or supposedly angry at Corbyn very few follow through with actions that would back up their claims of how worried or angry they are.
I note the ridiculous Hogan-Howe now sits in the House of Lords. And Steve Roundhouse, one of the senior officers involved in ‘credible and true’ is now DG Operations at the National Crime Agency.
Failing upward.
A lot of policemen are just not very good, very second-rate in fact.
A lot of people in public life are second-rate, at best.
Does this come as a surprise to you?
No. But advancement on the back of public disgrace grates a little.
Whilst I don't like Tom Watson, and he partly was motivated by political spite in this matter, the blame really does lie almost wholly with the police.
If someone comes to you with very serious allegations, you really can do nothing else but encourage them to take them to the police.
It is beyond shocking that all the senior Plods have been promoted, or moved on to more prestigious appointments, or allowed to retire without censure or criticism.
I see three Junior Plods are still facing disciplinary action -- I am sure they will be made an example of -- but how very typical of modern Britain that all the Senior Plods have moved onwards and upwards.
Five hours to go until I lose about £250, what a silly idea was it to keep laying the favourite for two and a half years!
If it is any consolation, you are not alone.
I’m sure there will be a few quiet PBers today. Betting strategies always work until they don’t!
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
I laid the favourite consistently. I am making a four figure sum today. It turns out that realising your error quickly enough is almost as useful a skill as being right in the first place.
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
A modest three figure sum for me, but no less welcome for that. It’s a four figure sum if Hunt somehow manages it but that’s vanishingly unlikely.
As soon as Boris looked a very strong runner with the MPs I reversed my position and clawed it back, helped by laying Stewart and, in particular, Leadsom who was ludicrously short for a significant period of time.
Yes, once the mps turned his status as favourite was assured. Prior to that even some of his allies worried hence their wanting the rules changed to accommodate him, but when mps gave up and decided they needed to gamble on him it was all over for the others.
Mr. JohnL, I have a little on Hunt at those odds(ish) but also backed Boris at about 9. Bearing in mind over bets, I'm roughly flat/mildly green if Boris wins. Nicely green if Hunt does.
Mr. W, one suspects the next Harrowing of the North will be Boris' electoral performance.
Comments
Investigators are not therapists. If you confuse the two you get into trouble. While you need a great deal of emotional intelligence to be a good investigator, there also - as Graham Greene said about novelists - needs be a sliver of ice in the heart enabling you to see clearly and not be swayed by unnecessary sympathies.
The police forgot that their role is to investigate and started turning into therapists. Others should have done that. One hopes that they have learnt the lesson but given the abysmal sentimentality which infests so much public decision-making I am not confident.
In these times ..... it will pass largely unnoticed.
Meanwhile @Cyclefree has once again forgotten that her job is much harder than she gives credit for, and if it wasn't then it would be harder to make a decent living at.
Good night all.
However even now Tories + Brexit Party is more than LD in Brecon so a Boris bounce could make it closer
It wouldn't have taken much research by Carl Beech to make his own fantasy appear plausible. One would have thought anything other than lazy policing would have tumbled his game at an early stage.
Would such a verdict get made here...I guess we will find out in time.
My parents voted for Davey as they worried about her youth and being Scottish. I however think she will energise the student vote again which is important for the street fighting Lib Dem’s. She has the energy and courage that vince did not have. Compared to Corbyn she is a much more likeable and charasmatic voice for remain and unlike Corbyn she is a true believer
When reality doesn't work as an attack, just invent whatever suits you I guess. Must be why you are in the the Boris party
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/22/tory-leadership-race-hour-by-hour-guide-winner-will-revealed/
This is the dawning of the age of the hairy arse......
That will be an interesting test of the Johnson ‘administration’.
Thank you, Constable Savage.....
As Henriques states, “since the entire judicial process is engaged in determining whether a ‘complainant is indeed a ‘victim’, such a approach cannot be questioned...”
And two lines later a Chief Constable “strongly opposes this view”. Not just a misguided detective, but the entire organisation appeared to have a deep misconception of the purpose of the justice system.
Judging from my (ex) CLP's Facebook page (a closed site to which I still appear to have access even though my membership has lapsed) a large majority of the active membership considers that there is absolutely no problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party and spends a lot of time posting pretty nasty bile against the minority of members who assert otherwise, let alone those MPs who have spoken out. It's typical of the sort of intolerant crap that has been in evidence since 2015 and has caused a lot of former members to call time on that narrow sect. Good luck with a programme of "political education" in that context.
Just begun a book by Norman Dixon, entitled On the Psychology of Military Incompetence.
Wondering if the lesson within might be somewhat applicable to modern politics.
Mr. kle4, I was thinking similar things last night. Blindly believing anyone who makes an accusation is not the way a justice system should work. It's insane. (It's practically Cardassian).
The key thing here is that it’s happening after our greatest friend and most reliable ally told us to piss off after we did exactly as we were told when seizing an Iranian tanker. That’s how much the Trump administration values our very, very special relationship. And even now there are credulous Brexit loons who believe we’ll get a great trade deal from the US.
But suspect you will.
if Trump had done something the left would be screaming about us being dragged in to an American war and being puppets
What’s really annoying is that I had a brilliant cricket World Cup, won enough for a decent holiday and had to pile it all on Boris at 1/5 or 1/10 to minimise the losses.
On the positive side, the next Tory leader market will be open again this afternoon, with a blank book and probably not too long until the contest
We won’t be hearing about front-runner jinx in Tory contests for a while.
What job? US Ambassador? Deputy PM with a seat in the Lords?
Don't rule anything out however sleazy. He won't
Farage will keep doing what he’s doing until Brexit actually happens.
The important thing is to understand why you got it wrong and avoid making the same mistake again. In Boris's case it was always understood that the Membership would see him home if he got to the run off. It was widely believed however that Conservative MPs wouldn't allow him to get that far. I think this was true for a long time, but after the debacle of the Euros many of them must have decided that he was their only chance of avoiding a disaster at the next election. Any Punter who picked up on that change would have avoided heavy losses, but it wasn't that easy to pick. One indicator was Portillo, a prominent opponent of Boris hitherto, changing his mind very publicly. Even so, there remained reason to think the change in the thinking of MPs wasn't sufficient.
In short, the facts changed and I didn't change my view. I was wrong, but it isn't the sort of losing bet that makes me want to give up. Just move on.
I've backed Verstappen at 10 each way (fifth the odds top three) to be fastest qualifier. Hockenheim's a slow, tight circuit. At Monaco he was third, behind the Mercedes. In Austria, he was third on pace (promoted to second due to Hamilton's penalty). Last time, Silverstone, he was fourth, but that's a much faster circuit than Hockenheim will be.
Gasly's 151 to win. If that had an each way to third, I'd be tempted. He raced very well last time, and 31 for a podium on a circuit that should suit Red Bull would be very tempting. The each way for the win is just to second, though.
Verstappen's also 10 for the win, if it were to third, I'd definitely tip that. It might still be worth a look.
Also, there's rain possible on both days. Odds against on Saturday, about 50/50 or so on race day.
If you believe that Johnson is not fit to be PM and that a No Deal exit is not a good idea, then you have ultimately be prepared to vote against the government if that is what your party seeks to enact.
Moaning about how bad it is then falling into line is utterly pointless. Just as pointless as moaning about anti-semitism and doing nothing.
We are going to get buckets of pointless moaning and wailing between now and 31 October. If we could bottle and sell it we could probably earn enough to pay for every lamb in the country to be slaughtered and still have money left over for us all to go on a round the world cruise.
That won't help Mercedes.
And Steve Roundhouse, one of the senior officers involved in ‘credible and true’ is now DG Operations at the National Crime Agency.
Failing upward.
A lot of people in public life are second-rate, at best.
Does this come as a surprise to you?
If Boris is forced out by the end of this year, having failed to deliver Brexit but still PM, then the next leader will be an unequivocal no-dealer. Conversely if he gets to 2022 and resigns having lost the election, and a bunch of socialists are running the country, then a more liberal leader in the mould of Rory might have a chance.
You’d want your book set up on the basis of an early contest, so yes, lay Rory as a starting point. Not that I’ll have much available to do so!
It also helps that Boris Johnson was not the only favourite in that period and there were some ludicrously priced runners at various stages.
Nevertheless the impact of his leadership campaign will surely fade in coming months, and like 2017 Corbymania his "strolling the streets" campaign is something that wouldn't have the same impact repeated. As a trading bet I reckon laying Rory now makes sense, if his odds are good enough.
Anyway, first politics miss in a while, and the important thing is to learn from one’s mistakes.
(Assuming of course that Hunt doesn’t win, in which case I’ll be in the Maldives next week!)
But advancement on the back of public disgrace grates a little.
As soon as Boris looked a very strong runner with the MPs I reversed my position and clawed it back, helped by laying Stewart and, in particular, Leadsom who was ludicrously short for a significant period of time.
When giving HY his due kudos for backing the Bozo, we should also remember the long periods when he was posting incessantly about the coming JRM-led Tory party.
Never ever bet with your heart. Only ever your head, and keep it evidence based at all times.
If it’s any consolidation I’m fairly good at reading the Tory party (which I understand) but less good at reading the Labour Party, which I don’t.
For that I rely on reading the analysis of others who I respect as being more informed and objective than I am.
Hard to disagree with that.
Otherwise it’s just a case of stopped clocks.
He did however identify quicker than most that the MPs were going to fold rather than act to keep Boris off the ballot.
Craven obeisance towards the next boss is certainly a characteristic:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jul/23/health-secretary-buries-paper-smoking-obesity-johnson
https://twitter.com/edwardgluce/status/1153474732307730432?s=21
I think I can remember: Rees-Mogg, Davis, Gove and Johnson, of course. Were Raab or Javid ever favourite?
ETA or just read Alastair Meeks's 8.21 post.
Will you be tub thumping and bell shaking at Stamford Bridge as the insurgents did in September 1066. Are you a lineal male descendent of Tostig Godwinson ?
It didn't end well for Tostig at the Battle of Stamford Bridge or his brother at Hastings shortly after.
But who is the later day William of Normandy ???? .....
Boris is taking office with a paper majority (assuming the DUP play nice) of 2-3 but in reality it is obvious from day 1 that he cannot rely upon a significant strand of his own party, just as May couldn't before him. What on earth is he going to do?
Surely he needs to reach out to as many strands of his own party as will give him the time of day. Keeping Hunt as FS would be an obvious starting place. Asking Rory to reconsider is worth the rebuff. Not appointing people who are hated by minority sections of the party for their disloyalty and obsessions makes some sense.
But none of it works. When you have the likes of the absurd Duncan, the obsessed Grieve, the more than semi detached Greening, the I'm really interesting , I just hide it really well Hammond, you could go on most of the day, you are well short of a majority. The only sane thing to do is to identify the battlefield you want to fight on and then contrive a GE. Boris will not be PM in any practical sense until he has had such an election and won it. Which may never happen of course.
My big money makers were Jeremy Corbyn, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Andrea Leadsom, Rory Stewart and David Lidington. Nigel Farage had a flowering for next Prime Minister too that I was happy to sell to. Having got on Jeremy Hunt at long odds, I was able to sell some of that at a big profit. I made a bit from most of the original hopefuls in the story leadership race by selling their delusions. This more than compensated for getting Boris Johnson wrong.
However, I would really welcome a few more Conservative MPs following Sir Alan Duncan’s principled lead. Boris Johnson not being next Prime Minister would turn a nice payout into a bonanza.
If someone comes to you with very serious allegations, you really can do nothing else but encourage them to take them to the police.
It is beyond shocking that all the senior Plods have been promoted, or moved on to more prestigious appointments, or allowed to retire without censure or criticism.
I see three Junior Plods are still facing disciplinary action -- I am sure they will be made an example of -- but how very typical of modern Britain that all the Senior Plods have moved onwards and upwards.
Just like the Bankers.
Mr. W, one suspects the next Harrowing of the North will be Boris' electoral performance.