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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to next week’s Brecon & Radnorshire where new leaders Swinson andJohnson will face their first electoral test
Number Cruncher Politics Brecon Poll
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(Might not so easily reach Brexit Party voters, rather than understating Tories.)
Ah, OK, yes. Then I agree. If Trump succeeds in making the Dems identify with the woke wankiness of the Squad then I think he could easily win. Right now he is cleverly cornering the Democrats into doing just that.
Trump remains an enigma. He seems barely sentient. He cannot talk coherently. If I met him in a supermarket I'd say he had Alzheimer's. Yet he displays great political cunning. Is it him, or his advisors, or just dumb luck?
I love the way Duncan proclaims this has nothing to do with personal animosity, even as he personally quivers with europhile loathing for the BOZZA.
She will take a lot of votes off Remainery Labourites.
Incidentally, I'm in a London hotel at the moment which is supposed to have air conditioning, but it only seems to be operating every so often, not all the time. Is this some sort of politically correct decision to save energy?
For reasons that should not need explaining.
His attempt to deny his lack of democracy re a new referendum was pathetic. His eyes kept flicking to the right: a tell. He knows he is lying. He knows a second vote is utterly fraudulent and immoral.
But his analysis of the present political situation is acute. I agree on that.
The overall feeling, tho, is of a fine political brain broken by his own grave errors, principally Iraq, but also his pursuit of dirty money ever since.
He is quintessentially tragic. He would make a fine subject for a Shakespearian play. Or movie.
Blimey. Maybe Boris will be the one who finally does something about social care.
Now that's got me interested...
Boris Johnson and Jamie Wharton,
Jo Johnson and on to Priti Patel.
Oli Dowden, Lee Cain,
Lyton Crosby, and Carrie Symonds,
Sajid Javid,
and Michael his best mate Gove
Grant Shapps, Dominic Raab
Jacob Rees-Mogg and Geoffrey Cox
James Cleverly Nigel Adams
Gavin Williamson
Duncan Smith and Matty Hancock,
Mark Fulbrook, and kit the malt house
liz truss, And HYUFD too.
See the names. Know the politics? let me describe. Now In the wood the stag is strong, the flower so firm at the stem; we must gather together to greet the storm, tomorrow belongs to them.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/andrew-sullivan-trump-betting-indecency-can-win-in-america.html
I wonder if this will be the final nail in the proverbial. If so, quite an ironic way for him to be toppled.
https://news.sky.com/story/tuesdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11768572
Has this thread got confused with @HerdyShepherd's Twitter account, perchance?
Boris has one job to do - sort out Brexit. That is the only thing he and his government will be judged on.
Cos that's how Savile and Cyril Smith managed it for so long.
Maybe he isn't a good judge of people or gets blinded by the vision of political advantage over people he sees as his opponents.
Even now, now, very now, an old black ram. Is tupping your white ewe.
(The old black ram is Othello, and the white ewe is Desdemona, although it's fake news).
Our police and their political masters make some seriously odd decisions
The policy (and police) were too dumb (or too keen to be involved in a high profile and political case) to realise that believing a victim is intrinsically good, but before you do it you should make the inquiries to establish that there is a victim to be believed.
If there's a GE, Boris needs attractive eye catching policies to talk about.
Surely the lesson was learned in 2017 - it's no good banging on about Brexit and nothing else for a whole GE campaign.
And it looks as if Boris has got the message.
How does it apply to Brexit, is the question. Who are the truly deluded, and which side is struck with ideological ergotism? It is very hard to say. Perhaps both.
But we don't want to go back to the status quo ante.
The Police seem notoriously unable to use judgement.
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1153421588525699072
An utter waste of money
It's the other side obviously.
South Africa's highest court has ruled that a top state official charged with investigating corruption lied under oath and acted in bad faith.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-49074492
The bloke out of Coronation Street, when it got to trial it beggared belief that the plod hadn't done some of the simplest of checks, like was he on set on a particular day, did he ever own or have access to cars and houses that those making allegations claimed he used. It soon became clear their stories just couldn't be true and in fact in one case it wasn't even the lady making the claims it was her partner talking over her to tell the story in the interviews (which is obviously a total no no).
Also remember Rolf Harris probably would have been cleared if a member of the public didn't write to the court to provide a crucial bit of evidence in relation to attendance at an event. Before that point, Harris claimed he wasn't there and the police / CPS provided no evidence he was.
Still, you might expect the police to be at least a little bit immune to the hysteria. Harvey Proctor's 2015 press statement was absolutely devastating. Who can read this bit, without immediately realising how bonkers the police were in this case?
I was asked if I could recognise images of the pen knife mentioned earlier. It was suggested it was Edward Heath who persuaded me not to castrate “Nick” with it. I was obviously so persuaded by Mr Heath’s intervention that I placed the pen knife in “Nick’s” pocket ready for him to present it to the Metropolitan police over 30 years later as “evidence”.
https://theneedleblog.wordpress.com/2015/08/25/full-statement-of-harvey-proctor/
We need to Do Brexit. Or we destroy our democracy (which is worth more than 10 points off GDP). Then we can revisit the decision if you guys get the votes to do that, in a general election. You won't. For a long time.
I had to deal with serious allegations every day of the week. What any competent investigator does is the following:-
- You get an allegation.
- You take it seriously. This does not mean saying that you believe the person making the allegation, never mind announcing this to the world or telling people that the accused is a terrible person. What it does mean is that you commit to doing a proper thorough investigation into the allegation.
- You do a proper investigation: interview the accuser, check everything out that he or she says; investigate the allegation from every possible angle; check everything; look for corroboration; look for stuff that contradicts what is being alleged; follow up every lead; widen the scope if necessary to come at the issue from a different perspective; test, test, test etc;
- you do not allow yourself to be influenced by what you think of the accuser or your sympathy or the gravity of what is alleged or public reaction or any other small "p" political shenanigans. It is essential that you approach this independently and professionally. You are not there to play games.
- when you have done all you reasonably can, you make a decision or recommendation and verify / check / confirm this with others. Spell out what is fact and what is your judgment and the basis for it. Be prepared for others to challenge what you have found and your findings.
- then write a proper report and pass the matter over to those who take the prosecution or disciplinary forward if that is the decision.
This is hard to do well but is the day-to-day job of any investigator, police force etc. If you can't or won't do this you have no business doing that job.
Why the police behaved like such boobies I don't know. I'm guessing it was a combination of panic / political arse-licking / desire to be associated with a high profile case to make a name for themselves / plain bloody incompetence and second-rateness.
Natural, but unprofessional.
People generally want to believe what they would like to be true. (See Brexit, the City and much of politics these days).
It takes a ruthless mind to determine facts first and then come to an opinion. Not many of us about.
People at work used to say I was scary and I came to the conclusion that it was because I was very good indeed at doing that in a work context, that this was a rarity in the world of finance (where self-delusion rules about 99% of the time) and therefore this was unusual and frightening.
https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1153419347156766720
https://betanews.com/2019/07/21/eu-domains-post-brexit/
Is this common requirement in other countries / regions? When I have bought domains in the past, I don't remember ever been asked to prove my citizenship.
https://factuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Report-Independent-Review-of-the-Metropolitan-Police-Services-handling-of-non-recent-sexual-offence-investigations-1-3-1.pdf
Like you, I'm not aware of residency requirements on other domains.
Highly unprofessional of course. What the hell do they teach them on their detective courses? Being an investigator is - inevitably - a bit of a lonely job precisely because you cannot afford to let yourself be entangled in ways which might compromise you professionally. Rule no. 1.
He would either have to bite the bullet and accept such an amendment or call a general election to get any financial bill passed.