On that poll and if Borus gets a bounce at the next general election too, the question will not be whether the Tories win it but whether Labour or the LDs come second, at least in voteshare
Under FPTP it depends on whose votes are most efficient. 'Win by a little lose by a lot' as we used to say when playing Risk.
I suppose there is the issue of Deputy Speakers. I've never been quite clear how they fit with the working majority calculations. But in the state of the parties above they are assumed to be normal voting MPs.
I make it this, assuming LDs win Brecon:
650 MPs - SF 7 - minus speaker = 642
Tories + DUP = 322
The rest = 642 - 322 = 320
But Tories only lose 1 to dep speakers, since the speaker is a Tory (lol). Lab lose two.
Thus, end result is 321 vs 318.
Tories + DUP = 322 excludes the Speaker already according to HoC website.
I think it's currently a majority of 3 / 4 depending on how things are counted.
Come next Tuesday the picture may be very different...
This is the big flaw in the Trump plan. Fascism not only attracts, it also repels.
I try to use the term fascist sparingly, but I think there are now just too many resonant chords being struck by Trump to exonerate him from that accusation.
I notice there are fewer folk leaping to the 'stop hyperbolising, he's nothing like a fascist' defence.
The trouble with the 'fascist' term is one of definition. Political scientists and historians still argue about whether it is a meaningful term to describe politicians and parties who are quite diverse. Italian fascism (the original) was different to Nazi version.
What were Boris's aides thinking? Okay, Boris was probably misinformed or just made it up, but someone should have checked the story's veracity and steered him away from it when it became clear it was bunk. The EU now look the informed, calm and organized ones, whilst we look as if we're happy to be run by nincompoops. Where was Gavin Williamson?
Johnson's supporters don't care. Sure, they might concede, in this example it's a UK law, but it's the type of silly thing we all know the EU does. Remember the bananas!
That's if they even believe the EU is telling the truth.
This is the big flaw in the Trump plan. Fascism not only attracts, it also repels.
I try to use the term fascist sparingly, but I think there are now just too many resonant chords being struck by Trump to exonerate him from that accusation.
I notice there are fewer folk leaping to the 'stop hyperbolising, he's nothing like a fascist' defence.
I just find it odd that what tipped people off was his tweets, not his concentration camps.
Fair point, but there's nothing like a tweet straight from Trump's gangrenous id for one to get a real feel for the guy.
This is the big flaw in the Trump plan. Fascism not only attracts, it also repels.
I try to use the term fascist sparingly, but I think there are now just too many resonant chords being struck by Trump to exonerate him from that accusation.
I notice there are fewer folk leaping to the 'stop hyperbolising, he's nothing like a fascist' defence.
The trouble with the 'fascist' term is one of definition. Political scientists and historians still argue about whether it is a meaningful term to describe politicians and parties who are quite diverse. Italian fascism (the original) was different to Nazi version.
What were Boris's aides thinking? Okay, Boris was probably misinformed or just made it up, but someone should have checked the story's veracity and steered him away from it when it became clear it was bunk. The EU now look the informed, calm and organized ones, whilst we look as if we're happy to be run by nincompoops. Where was Gavin Williamson?
Johnson's supporters don't care. Sure, they might concede, in this example it's a UK law, but it's the type of silly thing we all know the EU does. Remember the bananas!
That's if they even believe the EU is telling the truth.
Exactly. We are in the age of post truth politics now. Boris' devotees will gag down whatever he shits out.
Regarding the attempt to block prorogation, isn't there a very easy work around even if the amendment passes? Simply push back royal assent for the Northern Ireland bill until early November.
It can't be delayed as the election needs to be postponed by a certain date in October...
It's a bit like using UN long term climate forecasts on the to prove global warming. Rising average temperatures is an input to those models, not an output. The relevant output in both cases is, "what kind of sensitivity does the undesirable negative outcome have to the severity of our lack of planning for it?"
That is not true. The rising temperatures predicted by climate models are a consequence of calculating approximations to the underlying partial differential equations that describe the fundamental physics involved. The observed temperature evolution is not an input to the model.
Depends on the model. Some are trying to do as you describe; others have been caught in the feedback loop that requires a temperature rise as an output, else the model gets rejected. They therefore set the temperature evolution as an input. I'm mostly talking about secondary uses like forecasting drought/famine levels in Africa etc, not the core models the central IPCC estimates are based on.
Possibly the analogy wasn't helpful, but in any case, the I think the point around people (in particular journalists) being unable to distinguish between model inputs and outputs still stands.
What were Boris's aides thinking? Okay, Boris was probably misinformed or just made it up, but someone should have checked the story's veracity and steered him away from it when it became clear it was bunk. The EU now look the informed, calm and organized ones, whilst we look as if we're happy to be run by nincompoops. Where was Gavin Williamson?
Johnson's supporters don't care. Sure, they might concede, in this example it's a UK law, but it's the type of silly thing we all know the EU does. Remember the bananas!
That's if they even believe the EU is telling the truth.
Exactly. We are in the age of post truth politics now. Boris' devotees will gag down whatever he shits out.
Good old Britain - we're about to embrace 'post-truth' politics just as its inventor across the pond rapidly falls out of fashion.
What were Boris's aides thinking? Okay, Boris was probably misinformed or just made it up, but someone should have checked the story's veracity and steered him away from it when it became clear it was bunk. The EU now look the informed, calm and organized ones, whilst we look as if we're happy to be run by nincompoops. Where was Gavin Williamson?
Johnson's supporters don't care. Sure, they might concede, in this example it's a UK law, but it's the type of silly thing we all know the EU does. Remember the bananas!
That's if they even believe the EU is telling the truth.
Bananas - also an EU myth. Didn't you know?
"Commission regulation 2257/94 decreed that bananas in general should be “free from malformation or abnormal curvature”. Those sold as “extra class” must be perfect, “class 1” can have “slight defects of shape” and “class 2” can have full-scale “defects of shape”.
Nothing is banned under the regulation, which sets grading rules requested by industry to make sure importers – including UK wholesalers and supermarkets – know exactly what they will be getting when they order a box of bananas."
I believe we were highly influential in the drafting of GDPR. Something that has had enormous positive impact in a very short period of time.
Positive? The man hours wasted on producing crappy policies that no one ever reads, additional bureaucracy and extra regulation with the added bonus of fines to justify the regulator's existence and salaries is bordering on tragic. Has anyone on here ever looked at anyone's cookie policy or done anything other than tick yes to get the nonsense off the screen?
Pause.
Actually, yes. Me. It only takes a moment. Although I do not do it often I do do it occasionally.
Well there's always one isn't there? I recall that Google or someone put in red and bold in their terms and conditions that signing up to these conditions meant the loss of your eternal soul and no one ever queried it. These things may benefit the lawyers paid to draft them but absolutely no one else.
Well, I make it two, I guess (also not routinely, but sometimes).
Some websites (I forget which) do it in a more useful way, presenting three options (paraphrased): "Accept all cookies, including those that we use to advertise stuff to you/sell info to others" OR "Accept only the cookies actually needed for the site (e.g. login, save your preferences)" OR "Read policy in detail and access more settings". For those, I just hit the second.
The rules should have mandated something like that and also made websites accept a header from the browser to automatically select - i.e so that you can set a preference in Firefox or whatever and never get asked the question.
Re GDPR more broadly, I mentioned before that in my line of work (epidemiology with NHS data, within a university) it's made things simpler for us as it sets out more clearly what we can and cannot do without explicit consent.
Regarding the attempt to block prorogation, isn't there a very easy work around even if the amendment passes? Simply push back royal assent for the Northern Ireland bill until early November.
It can't be delayed as the election needs to be postponed by a certain date in October...
Boris could kill the bill and have the election. The DUP probably wouldn't mind as it would preserve the status quo on abortion.
Sounds like it is another example of platinum plating by our authorities applying EU standards to processed as well as fresh fish. It is entirely possible that the politicians were told that this was necessary. Or Boris just made it up, of course.
What were Boris's aides thinking? Okay, Boris was probably misinformed or just made it up, but someone should have checked the story's veracity and steered him away from it when it became clear it was bunk. The EU now look the informed, calm and organized ones, whilst we look as if we're happy to be run by nincompoops. Where was Gavin Williamson?
He brought a prop. That makes it pre-meditated, if not "thought through". I assume they don't care - it just reinforces what people want to believe, and it doesn't matter if it isn't true.
The unyielding determination of our political classes to box themselves in before they negotiate drives me close to despair. We can only hope that Boris concludes that the only way he can deliver on his promise is to sign May's deal with some frankly irrelevant tweak and that enough Labour MPs are sufficiently scared of no deal to at least abstain.
The deal now looks the least likely of the three outcomes. The fact that it is also probably the least bad is a shame.
I'd currently assess the odds as:
Deal: 10% Eventual revoke (with or without a further referendum): 45% No deal: 45%
I don't agree Alastair. The deal remains a strong contender I think but dressed up as Broker Boris. A rose by any other name, and all that.
Deal 40% Eventual revoke (with or without a further referendum) 50% No deal 10%
The revoke with or without a referendum has the wonderful benefit that we'd be rid of the ghastly Johnson.
Far from it, Boris would be able to present himself as the champion of 'the will of the people' against MPs prepared to revoke rather than deliver the Brexit 52% voted for.
Regarding the attempt to block prorogation, isn't there a very easy work around even if the amendment passes? Simply push back royal assent for the Northern Ireland bill until early November.
It can't be delayed as the election needs to be postponed by a certain date in October...
Boris could kill the bill and have the election. The DUP probably wouldn't mind as it would preserve the status quo on abortion.
That requires Stormont returning and for Stormont to return Sinn Fein need to agree - which they won't do as sneaking the abortion change through is something they want..
Positive? The man hours wasted on producing crappy policies that no one ever reads, additional bureaucracy and extra regulation with the added bonus of fines to justify the regulator's existence and salaries is bordering on tragic. Has anyone on here ever looked at anyone's cookie policy or done anything other than tick yes to get the nonsense off the screen?
I suggest you read the data usage terms of your mobile phone provider. Here's mine (I have not authorised this so check if it is defaulted on yours):
"We collect and store information about your internet use, your browser and device. We use this information ....."
What were Boris's aides thinking? Okay, Boris was probably misinformed or just made it up, but someone should have checked the story's veracity and steered him away from it when it became clear it was bunk. The EU now look the informed, calm and organized ones, whilst we look as if we're happy to be run by nincompoops. Where was Gavin Williamson?
He brought a prop. That makes it pre-meditated, if not "thought through". I assume they don't care - it just reinforces what people want to believe, and it doesn't matter if it isn't true.
We are run by a bunch of liars who know most of the public are so thick they will never understand anyway and plenty will not even know what a kipper is.
Why was the vote trailed as being "close" by various bods when it was plain as the day is light the Gov't would get nowhere near if Phil Hammond is abstaining ?
Why was the vote trailed as being "close" by various bods when it was plain as the day is light the Gov't would get nowhere near if Phil Hammond is abstaining ?
A fear that some Labour Leaver MPs/MPs in Leave areas might not back the amendment.
Regarding the attempt to block prorogation, isn't there a very easy work around even if the amendment passes? Simply push back royal assent for the Northern Ireland bill until early November.
The debate around prorogation is a complete red kipper. Why exactly would Boris want to do so? Or, turning the question round, what is it that the Commons could do that he is supposed to be so scared of?
- It will be very difficult to pass a Cooper II given the lack of opportunity for MPs to grab control of parliamentary business as they did before; - Even if MPs do gain control, a Cooper II cannot necessarily direct the government to request and accept an A50 extension, never mind the EU - Cooper I didn't and only achieved its ends because May was happy to play along; - There are not the numbers for a Revoke Act
Regarding the attempt to block prorogation, isn't there a very easy work around even if the amendment passes? Simply push back royal assent for the Northern Ireland bill until early November.
The debate around prorogation is a complete red kipper. Why exactly would Boris want to do so? Or, turning the question round, what is it that the Commons could do that he is supposed to be so scared of?
- It will be very difficult to pass a Cooper II given the lack of opportunity for MPs to grab control of parliamentary business as they did before; - Even if MPs do gain control, a Cooper II cannot necessarily direct the government to request and accept an A50 extension, never mind the EU - Cooper I didn't and only achieved its ends because May was happy to play along; - There are not the numbers for a Revoke Act
Boris needs to be forced to extend, and the building blocks are starting to drop into place.
Boris won't extend, he will try and prorogue and suspend Parliament if necessary at the end of October to ensure Brexit on 31st October by announcing a Queen's Speech in early November.
MPs therefore likely need to VONC a Boris Government first if they want to block Brexit and force a general election
Why was the vote trailed as being "close" by various bods when it was plain as the day is light the Gov't would get nowhere near if Phil Hammond is abstaining ?
A fear that some Labour Leaver MPs/MPs in Leave areas might not back the amendment.
Ah. That old chestnut. The dog which doesn't bark. Merely opens one eye and goes back to sleep.
Why was the vote trailed as being "close" by various bods when it was plain as the day is light the Gov't would get nowhere near if Phil Hammond is abstaining ?
A fear that some Labour Leaver MPs/MPs in Leave areas might not back the amendment.
Ah. That old chestnut. The dog which doesn't bark. Merely opens one eye and goes back to sleep.
Will be interesting to see how Sarah Champion voted.
Just looking at the latest YouGov - swing from Con to Lib Dem since 2017 - 15%. Swing from Lab to Lib Dem since 2017 - 15.5%. Obviously won't be the same everywhere.
We have the "Boris Bounce" or the "Johnson Jump" to come I am told. Presumably this will lead to the "Davey Dip", the "Swinson Slide", the "Corbyn Crash" and the "Farage Fall".
It has to be good news that Parliament is seeking to move to prevent democracy being suspended. One way or another the current mess has to be sorted out through normal democratic processes.
Regarding the attempt to block prorogation, isn't there a very easy work around even if the amendment passes? Simply push back royal assent for the Northern Ireland bill until early November.
The debate around prorogation is a complete red kipper. Why exactly would Boris want to do so? Or, turning the question round, what is it that the Commons could do that he is supposed to be so scared of?
- It will be very difficult to pass a Cooper II given the lack of opportunity for MPs to grab control of parliamentary business as they did before; - Even if MPs do gain control, a Cooper II cannot necessarily direct the government to request and accept an A50 extension, never mind the EU - Cooper I didn't and only achieved its ends because May was happy to play along; - There are not the numbers for a Revoke Act
So what would proroguing prevent?
Proroguing would prevent a GONU.
The basic inability of the HoC to agree on anything positive will be what prevents a GNU.
As a Green who has engaged with the internal conversation about potential deal with the LDs; it isn't going to happen. We don't trust them on policy, nor politics. It has happened in the past that we made agreements with them not to stand and they agreed, we stood down, and they stood anyway. Whilst Sian and Jonathan seem to be in favour, I would say 2/3rds of the membership are against.
So a deal that could give the Greens 6+ seats does not appeal? Clearly there are policy differences but all we are talking about are arrangements in maybe 30-50 seats.
Don't game FPTP and stay pure seems to be your approach.
I agree with you; the rest of the membership not so much. I think it is because we have lots of anti austerity ex Lab and ex LD voters who just do not trust the LD party on anything, either because of past relationships with the LD party turning sour or because they do not trust the word of LDHQ.
The problem for the Greens is that on 8% they will struggle to win extra seats under FPTP even if the LDs stand down. For example, the Greens got 17% of the vote in Isle of Wight. If you add the LDs 4% then that still only takes you to 21%, around 3k votes behind Labour and 24k behind the Tories.
Realistically the Greens best shot of picking up extra seats would be to take on Lab in Bristol W and Norwich S but the LDs would presumably also see these as targets. It shows that while there is a certain level of cooperation, the Greens and LDs are also competitors fishing in the same pool of voters.
Yeah, pretty much all of this. Whilst LDs and Greens have the same pool of voters, the ideology behind the parties is wildly different. It means on the surface people say we should work together and we'd have vote transfers etc. but lots of LDs are just wet remainers who want to go back to Cameron and Blair days, whereas lots of Greens (like myself) could easily be to the left of a lot of Corbyn's project and mostly disagree with Lab on environmental policy.
The Greens have absolutely no chance in Bristol West. The Greens and Labour would be fishing from the same far left pool, and looking at some comments from locals they seem fine with Corbyn’s politics. He might not be Pro EU enough for them but their politics are about more than EU membership. They might be slightly unhappy with the MP but she has a 35k majority.
The deselection process begins next Thursday, especially for those of the above who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement too like Bebb, Grieve, Greening, Gyimah and Lee
Why was the vote trailed as being "close" by various bods when it was plain as the day is light the Gov't would get nowhere near if Phil Hammond is abstaining ?
A fear that some Labour Leaver MPs/MPs in Leave areas might not back the amendment.
Ah. That old chestnut. The dog which doesn't bark. Merely opens one eye and goes back to sleep.
If we all had £1 for every time someone on here incorrectly predicted that Labour rebels would rescue Brexit we would all be able to retire to a nice sunny country in the EU from which vantage point to observe the wreckage of the UK.
The deselection process begins next Thursday, especially for those of the above who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement too like Bebb, Grieve, Greening, Gyimah and Lee
Comments
Come next Tuesday the picture may be very different...
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1151826054706847744
That's if they even believe the EU is telling the truth.
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8?
Deal 80%
No Deal 5%
2nd Ref 15%
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1561&context=survey_center_polls
Possibly the analogy wasn't helpful, but in any case, the I think the point around people (in particular journalists) being unable to distinguish between model inputs and outputs still stands.
Time is up, division.
"Commission regulation 2257/94 decreed that bananas in general should be “free from malformation or abnormal curvature”. Those sold as “extra class” must be perfect, “class 1” can have “slight defects of shape” and “class 2” can have full-scale “defects of shape”.
Nothing is banned under the regulation, which sets grading rules requested by industry to make sure importers – including UK wholesalers and supermarkets – know exactly what they will be getting when they order a box of bananas."
Some websites (I forget which) do it in a more useful way, presenting three options (paraphrased): "Accept all cookies, including those that we use to advertise stuff to you/sell info to others" OR "Accept only the cookies actually needed for the site (e.g. login, save your preferences)" OR "Read policy in detail and access more settings". For those, I just hit the second.
The rules should have mandated something like that and also made websites accept a header from the browser to automatically select - i.e so that you can set a preference in Firefox or whatever and never get asked the question.
Re GDPR more broadly, I mentioned before that in my line of work (epidemiology with NHS data, within a university) it's made things simpler for us as it sets out more clearly what we can and cannot do without explicit consent.
https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1151829851218874370?s=20
"We collect and store information about your internet use, your browser and device. We use this information ....."
- It will be very difficult to pass a Cooper II given the lack of opportunity for MPs to grab control of parliamentary business as they did before;
- Even if MPs do gain control, a Cooper II cannot necessarily direct the government to request and accept an A50 extension, never mind the EU - Cooper I didn't and only achieved its ends because May was happy to play along;
- There are not the numbers for a Revoke Act
So what would proroguing prevent?
MPs therefore likely need to VONC a Boris Government first if they want to block Brexit and force a general election
An interesting old day then it would seem.
Just looking at the latest YouGov - swing from Con to Lib Dem since 2017 - 15%. Swing from Lab to Lib Dem since 2017 - 15.5%. Obviously won't be the same everywhere.
We have the "Boris Bounce" or the "Johnson Jump" to come I am told. Presumably this will lead to the "Davey Dip", the "Swinson Slide", the "Corbyn Crash" and the "Farage Fall".
This stuff writes itself.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1151837407647604737
If he starts to criticise (No Deal) Brexit are Brexiteers going to start chanting 'send him home' at him even though he was born in the UK?
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1151838418453880834
You're in the wrong party.