I just had a quick look at the Daily Telegraph and what do I see but Boris Johnson pictured with a kipper. Does this man know how to be serious? You don't need props to be PM but gravitas, reassurance and good judgement. I don't believe holding up a smelly dead fish in front of an audience meets any of these benchmarks...
I don’t actually get the kipper point.
Is he suggesting that it is a God-given Englishman’s liberty to send rotting fish through the post?
Is that what this is all about?
Let’s face it, it’s no “Krushchev’s shoe”, is it?
The only thing that Boris can do that will make me laugh is when he slowly realises that people don't find him funny any more! That is going to kill him. If that does not happen he has the problem of people not taking him seriously. He has made it such a key part of himself he cannot keep it switched off. I will give you an example: In 1997 for instance the UK had an unforeseen Royal death. If Boris had been PM, then, instead of Blair and Boris had mentioned something about a People's Princess, some would probably think he was taking the piss and comparing her to Barbie!
I have experienced several people in reality with a comedy persona similar to Boris and people around them become conditioned to laughing whenever they say something even if it is not funny or completely inappropriate.
Technically faced with the unprecedented and unexpected using the "rule book" William Hague did everything right and Tony Blair did everything wrong. However, it was not spun like that and the public wanted to hear from Blair not a Tory at that time. There was a lot of unctious stuff around - but genuine shock as well. The People's Princess was a revolting phrase and revolting and inaccurate concept. The near lynching of the Queen that followed - not happy times.
Remainer Cabinet Ministers resigning and voting against should speed up the deselection processes. There's no way a Conservative MP will survive in the Tory Party if they hand control back over to the corrupt Remainer House of Commons.
Shadsy should open a market on which party has the most deselections. Labour would have been 10s-on shots before Brexit madness hit the blue team.
Brexit madness has already hit the blue team, just look at the behaviour of Soubry, Grieve, Stewart and others who are prepared to possibly hand power over to a Marxist opposition. They're the fruitcakes and loonies of the Tory Party as a forgettable man once said.
I don't think voting against this 3 line whip will be the killer for a Tory MP. Sitting MP rights are such that it will have to be spelt out for a vote to be used for deselection. You can see the fun we have already had with TINO Conservative MPs this last year.
All political careers end in failure, Jezza too. When he ceases to appeal to his own party, and cannot hold poll share, he is doomed. Few Labour voters want an antisemitic Leaver for leader..
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially, it means that on October 31, people will be cheering because we're out the EU. But come 2022, people will begin to notice that we're still in the transitional arrangements, which involve us paying money to Brussels, are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (the EEA at least has the EFTA Court in Luxembourg), and still have Freedom of Movement.
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
It would make more sense for Labour to fill that slot, retaining its union links and culture based on the class struggle, and lose its urban liberals to a party that is actually liberal.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially, it means that on October 31, people will be cheering because we're out the EU. But come 2022, people will begin to notice that we're still in the transitional arrangements, which involve us paying money to Brussels, are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (the EEA at least has the EFTA Court in Luxembourg), and still have Freedom of Movement.
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I think perpetual transition will please no one apart from Farage. It does make reversal easier, but nothing else to Remainers.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop 2) No Deal. 3) Extend for a referendum/Election 4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
Remainer Cabinet Ministers resigning and voting against should speed up the deselection processes. There's no way a Conservative MP will survive in the Tory Party if they hand control back over to the corrupt Remainer House of Commons.
Shadsy should open a market on which party has the most deselections. Labour would have been 10s-on shots before Brexit madness hit the blue team.
Brexit madness has already hit the blue team, just look at the behaviour of Soubry, Grieve, Stewart and others who are prepared to possibly hand power over to a Marxist opposition. They're the fruitcakes and loonies of the Tory Party as a forgettable man once said.
Go look in the mirror. It is you and your like’s obsession with Brexit in the face of all reason and absence of actual benefit that has led to all this.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially, it means that on October 31, people will be cheering because we're out the EU. But come 2022, people will begin to notice that we're still in the transitional arrangements, which involve us paying money to Brussels, are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (the EEA at least has the EFTA Court in Luxembourg), and still have Freedom of Movement.
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
It may work in the short and even medium term. Public appetite for more whinging about the EU is pretty much exhausted after the last three years. Yes, the saloon bar ultras will continue to moan, but then they always were, whatever type of Brexit came to pass.
Yougov was the only pollster to underestimate Labour in the EU elections - despite having stopped polling a bit earlier.
Yes. Although I agree with the lead and can see the flaw in upweighting by recall that most of the other companies are doing, there is one caveat to the YouGov approach. This is that there remain a bunch of voters who actually voted Labour last time who don’t recall (or own up to) having done so now. If whatever factors led them to vote Labour last time happen to recur during the next election, it gives that party a potential upside on its current poll ratings.
Indeed Labour’s stock has fallen so far that we may indeed have shy Labour voters, shy to admit it in retrospect - the mirror of the problem with the Tories that led to weighting by past vote in the first place.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve..
I don't see the downside for the EU of an indefinite transition. What am I missing?
That it delivers zero “benefits” of Brexit? Still pay, still can’t sign other trade deals, still have FOM...
Yes. I don't understand why rcs1000 is so excited, because I also don't understand why the ERG would vote for it, but I specifically quoted Foxy stating that the EU wouldn't go for it and that is what my question related to.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially, it means that on October 31, people will be cheering because we're out the EU. But come 2022, people will begin to notice that we're still in the transitional arrangements, which involve us paying money to Brussels, are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (the EEA at least has the EFTA Court in Luxembourg), and still have Freedom of Movement.
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I think perpetual transition will please no one apart from Farage. It does make reversal easier, but nothing else to Remainers.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop 2) No Deal. 3) Extend for a referendum/Election 4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
5) You are wrong and the EU actually do negotiate. Because none of the incoming top team want the ongoing bad smell of the UK defining all they can - and can't - do now they are in charge.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve..
I don't see the downside for the EU of an indefinite transition. What am I missing?
1) they want resolution not uncertainty.
2) there are no negotiations on changing the WA.
They would take a long transition, during which almost nothing changes, and which probably ends with the eventual political humiliation for the British right of our rejoining, over any of the alternatives. You could argue it’s even better than a PV/Remain decision now, since the dream outcome for them is that our anti-EUism withers rather than explodes.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve..
I don't see the downside for the EU of an indefinite transition. What am I missing?
That it delivers zero “benefits” of Brexit? Still pay, still can’t sign other trade deals, still have FOM...
Yes. I don't understand why rcs1000 is so excited, because I also don't understand why the ERG would vote for it,
Labour might...
Yes, there are a lot of MPs alternatively weary or desperate, in both Labour and the ERG, who could see it through. The key Qs are whether the DUP would be on board (probably) and whether the Labour leavers outnumbered the ERG self-styled Spartans.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially,
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I think perpetual transition will please no one apart from Farage. It does make reversal easier, but nothing else to Remainers.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop 2) No Deal. 3) Extend for a referendum/Election 4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
5) You are wrong and the EU actually do negotiate. Because none of the incoming top team want the ongoing bad smell of the UK defining all they can - and can't - do now they are in charge.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I think perpetual transition will please no one apart from Farage. It does make reversal easier, but nothing else to Remainers.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop 2) No Deal. 3) Extend for a referendum/Election 4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
5) You are wrong and the EU actually do negotiate. Because none of the incoming top team want the ongoing bad smell of the UK defining all they can - and can't - do now they are in charge.
The EU simply can't give the UK the benefits of membership once we've left. They would need to take a hit under No Deal but it would be nowhere near as bad for them as it would be for us.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
Remainer Cabinet Ministers resigning and voting against should speed up the deselection processes. There's no way a Conservative MP will survive in the Tory Party if they hand control back over to the corrupt Remainer House of Commons.
Shadsy should open a market on which party has the most deselections. Labour would have been 10s-on shots before Brexit madness hit the blue team.
We haven't had any at all. People like Kate Hoey who might have been are auto-deselecting. It's very helpful of them and I'm sure Momentum appreciates it.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially,
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I think perpetual transition will please no one apart from Farage. It does make reversal easier, but nothing else to Remainers.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop 2) No Deal. 3) Extend for a referendum/Election 4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
5) You are wrong and the EU actually do negotiate. Because none of the incoming top team want the ongoing bad smell of the UK defining all they can - and can't - do now they are in charge.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
The question of who the unicorn Leavers think they are going to negotiate with is underexplored. Why no one has asked either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt this is beyond me.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
The outgoing team is outgone. There is no one at the other end of the telephone.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
or state that they won't negotiate (as the EU already has when we got the last extension) and tell us to stop wasting time..
I just had a quick look at the Daily Telegraph and what do I see but Boris Johnson pictured with a kipper. Does this man know how to be serious? You don't need props to be PM but gravitas, reassurance and good judgement. I don't believe holding up a smelly dead fish in front of an audience meets any of these benchmarks...
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
or state that they won't negotiate (as the EU already has when we got the last extension) and tell us to stop wasting time..
There is no one in Brussels with any mandate to negotiate now.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
How much do most Leave voters care about the details, though? My impression is that most of them feel it's a point of principle - they voted to leave, so politicians should just do it. It's not that they feel passionately that they want a new ECHR or barrier-free export of kippers or a trade deal with the US. If leaving involves retaining trade rules and paying stuff and whatever, well, that's all detail. I reckon that only maybe 10% of the electorate actually care. Even immigration no longer seems to bother people much, according to the most recent polls.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
How much do most Leave voters care about the details, though? My impression is that most of them feel it's a point of principle - they voted to leave, so politicians should just do it. It's not that they feel passionately that they want a new ECHR or barrier-free export of kippers or a trade deal with the US. If leaving involves retaining trade rules and paying stuff and whatever, well, that's all detail. I reckon that only maybe 10% of the electorate actually care. Even immigration no longer seems to bother people much, according to the most recent polls.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
A passenger who allegedly caused two RAF jets to be scrambled to escort a plane back to Stansted airport has been sent a bill for £85,000 by the airline.
I see that the various French billionaires who got good publicity from committing to make large donations toward the cost of rebuilding Notre Dame haven’t so far stumped up a cent of the €600 million they promised.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially, it means that on October 31, people will be cheering because we're out the EU. But come 2022, people will begin to notice that we're still in the transitional arrangements, which involve us paying money to Brussels, are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (the EEA at least has the EFTA Court in Luxembourg), and still have Freedom of Movement.
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of the EU and if voters' lives are no better, can Nigel Farage convince them it is Boris's fault for the wrong sort of Brexit? My guess is disaffected voters would move to Labour rather than BXP.
Voters aren't stupid. If they see we're still in the EU in-all-but-name there will be a backlash, and that backlash certainly won't fall into the lap of the Starmers, Thornberrys and Watsons of the Labour Party. We saw this already in the European Elections with Farage hoovering up the votes of Leavers.
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
There's a decent chance of something like this happening IMO. The quasi permanent "Vassal State" won't be a comfortable place to be. The EU and third country relationships will still continue to dominate politics to the expense of everything else. Therefore no-one much will be happy.
But something has to give. This outcome is the one the greatest number of people can live with.
A passenger who allegedly caused two RAF jets to be scrambled to escort a plane back to Stansted airport has been sent a bill for £85,000 by the airline.
A passenger who allegedly caused two RAF jets to be scrambled to escort a plane back to Stansted airport has been sent a bill for £85,000 by the airline.
Nick Clegg: Brexit likely means “the end of the United Kingdom”
“the Brexit demon has unleashed such an aggressive and regressive right-wing English nationalism… the Conservative Party is converting itself into an English nationalist party.”
Clegg said of Boris Johnson, who is set to become prime minister next week, “the more you see of him, the less impressive he is. With familiarity, he diminishes.”
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
or state that they won't negotiate (as the EU already has when we got the last extension) and tell us to stop wasting time..
There is no one in Brussels with any mandate to negotiate now.
That's the point - however someone in Brussels needs to repeat that statement, in english on a TV camera...
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
How much do most Leave voters care about the details, though? My impression is that most of them feel it's a point of principle - they voted to leave, so politicians should just do it. It's not that they feel passionately that they want a new ECHR or barrier-free export of kippers or a trade deal with the US. If leaving involves retaining trade rules and paying stuff and whatever, well, that's all detail. I reckon that only maybe 10% of the electorate actually care. Even immigration no longer seems to bother people much, according to the most recent polls.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
I think that's sadly true, but how do you define "dust"? Leaving the EU will be hugely symbolic, even if in practice it changes virtually nothing at all. I think that Boris has the cheery air to sell it as virtually total victory over the evil foot-dragging Remoaners. "We've had three years of waffle and paralysis. I've got us OUT. Now let's move forward and attend to all the stuff that needs doing." Most Leavers aren't AFAIK especially against any particular EU thing. They just want us to leave.
Nick Clegg: Brexit likely means “the end of the United Kingdom”
“the Brexit demon has unleashed such an aggressive and regressive right-wing English nationalism… the Conservative Party is converting itself into an English nationalist party.”
Clegg said of Boris Johnson, who is set to become prime minister next week, “the more you see of him, the less impressive he is. With familiarity, he diminishes.”
That latter point is certainly on the money, evidenced by the queue of people who have worked with or for or had to manage Bozo in the past who are ready to condemn him now, and the lack of support he got from his former cabinet colleagues.
Am I the only person who thinks that the endless transition Boris now seems to be promising is going to bite him on the arse?
Essentially,
How many divisions voters do they have? We will be out of
Voters aren't stupid..
It's a good question.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I think perpetual transition will please no one apart from Farage. It does make reversal easier, but nothing else to Remainers.
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop 2) No Deal. 3) Extend for a referendum/Election 4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
5) You are wrong and the EU actually do negotiate. Because none of the incoming top team want the ongoing bad smell of the UK defining all they can - and can't - do now they are in charge.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
The question of who the unicorn Leavers think they are going to negotiate with is underexplored. Why no one has asked either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt this is beyond me.
To be fair on Hunt, that is why he is less fixated on Halloween. Any renfegotiation needs 3 things: Will on both sides, teams of negotiators in position, and time.
None of these 3 are in present, and cannot be before Halloween. There will be no renegotiation. The 4 options: WA, No Deal, Revote, Revoke are the only 4 options.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
I think that's sadly true, but how do you define "dust"? Leaving the EU will be hugely symbolic, even if in practice it changes virtually nothing at all. I think that Boris has the cheery air to sell it as virtually total victory over the evil foot-dragging Remoaners. "We've had three years of waffle and paralysis. I've got us OUT. Now let's move forward and attend to all the stuff that needs doing." Most Leavers aren't AFAIK especially against any particular EU thing. They just want us to leave.
Leavers aren’t supporting Boris Johnson because of his charisma. They’re supporting him because they think his charisma will secure them what they want: total victory. If they don’t get that, they’ll eviscerate him.
The 4 options: WA, No Deal, Revote, Revoke are the only 4 options.
Revote only gets you to one of the other 3
Yes, for a referendum. A GE with a different party winning and different red lines could theoretically open more options, but is both unlikely and more just a rewrite of the PD.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
I think that's sadly true, but how do you define "dust"? Leaving the EU will be hugely symbolic, even if in practice it changes virtually nothing at all. I think that Boris has the cheery air to sell it as virtually total victory over the evil foot-dragging Remoaners. "We've had three years of waffle and paralysis. I've got us OUT. Now let's move forward and attend to all the stuff that needs doing." Most Leavers aren't AFAIK especially against any particular EU thing. They just want us to leave.
Leavers aren’t supporting Boris Johnson because of his charisma. They’re supporting him because they think his charisma will secure them what they want: total victory. If they don’t get that, they’ll eviscerate him.
BINO would be an absolute boon for the Express, Telegraph and their Alt Right fellow travellers. If you thought England was unpleasant in the period 2016-19, just wait and see what BINO England looks like in 2025.
You don’t want to go there. Revoke is the only sane endpoint.
Laying July 2020 or later exit on BFE at 2.6 looks like a good bet? Even if he survives, the odds will lengthen when the report is published late 2019/early 2020
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
I think that's sadly true, but how do you define "dust"? Leaving the EU will be hugely symbolic, even if in practice it changes virtually nothing at all. I think that Boris has the cheery air to sell it as virtually total victory over the evil foot-dragging Remoaners. "We've had three years of waffle and paralysis. I've got us OUT. Now let's move forward and attend to all the stuff that needs doing." Most Leavers aren't AFAIK especially against any particular EU thing. They just want us to leave.
Farage, with his equally cheery air, will mock any such idea. And as another clown, Farage will have the undoubted advantage of not occupying a position of responsibility.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
I think that's sadly true, but how do you define "dust"? Leaving the EU will be hugely symbolic, even if in practice it changes virtually nothing at all. I think that Boris has the cheery air to sell it as virtually total victory over the evil foot-dragging Remoaners. "We've had three years of waffle and paralysis. I've got us OUT. Now let's move forward and attend to all the stuff that needs doing." Most Leavers aren't AFAIK especially against any particular EU thing. They just want us to leave.
Leavers aren’t supporting Boris Johnson because of his charisma. They’re supporting him because they think his charisma will secure them what they want: total victory. If they don’t get that, they’ll eviscerate him.
BINO would be an absolute boon for the Express, Telegraph and their Alt Right fellow travellers. If you thought England was unpleasant in the period 2016-19, just wait and see what BINO England looks like in 2025.
You don’t want to go there. Revoke is the only sane endpoint.
Sanity hasn't been the criterion for some time already.
Nick Clegg: Brexit likely means “the end of the United Kingdom”
“the Brexit demon has unleashed such an aggressive and regressive right-wing English nationalism… the Conservative Party is converting itself into an English nationalist party.”
Clegg said of Boris Johnson, who is set to become prime minister next week, “the more you see of him, the less impressive he is. With familiarity, he diminishes.”
That latter point is certainly on the money, evidenced by the queue of people who have worked with or for or had to manage Bozo in the past who are ready to condemn him now, and the lack of support he got from his former cabinet colleagues.
There's obvious uncertainty in the maths, but the thread header data suggests that somewhere between twelve and twenty-five per cent of current LAB voters on YouGov's panel can't remember how they voted two years ago, or simply lied about it for no gain to a pollster who had recorded their previous answers.
What on earth is going on? (1) coincidence (2) denial or (3) gaming the system?
Unless Scotland (or NI or Wales??) go for UDI, that seems unlikely. That is, of course, unless Brown expects Boris to be PM for a considerable amount of time.
Has Johnson really proposed this by the way? It’s like May deal plus plus plus (or minus minus minus).
Catching up on last night's Peston, I see Bozo is proposing a longer transition (but ending "before next election" - further evidence against HY's contention of an early GE)
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
How much do most Leave voters care about the details, though? My impression is that most of them feel it's a point of principle - they voted to leave, so politicians should just do it. It's not that they feel passionately that they want a new ECHR or barrier-free export of kippers or a trade deal with the US. If leaving involves retaining trade rules and paying stuff and whatever, well, that's all detail. I reckon that only maybe 10% of the electorate actually care. Even immigration no longer seems to bother people much, according to the most recent polls.
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
The context is that Brexit has failed on its own terms. Leavers and Remainers are reacting to this failure.
Has Johnson really proposed this by the way? It’s like May deal plus plus plus (or minus minus minus).
Catching up on last night's Peston, I see Bozo is proposing a longer transition (but ending "before next election" - further evidence against HY's contention of an early GE)
If the EU had negotiated the exact same deal with Labour, it'd have been hailed as a triumph by Corbyn and co. I'm not certain the Tory front bench would have opposed it in quite the same way Labour has... The tribal Labour view that anything Tory = BAD is simply stronger in Labour than plenty of places elsewhere. The grand coalitions in Germany for instance, I don't think we could do anything like that here. And the reason is that for Labour a red rose on horse shit would be superior to a Tory cure for all cancer.
Mirror and Express owner enters race to buy the i publisher Reach has submitted an indicative offer for JPI Media, which owns The Scotsman and Yorkshire Post, Sky News learns.
Laying July 2020 or later exit on BFE at 2.6 looks like a good bet? Even if he survives, the odds will lengthen when the report is published late 2019/early 2020
edit/ now 2.66
If there is a contest next year, then the leaving date would be the autumn conference.
There's obvious uncertainty in the maths, but the thread header data suggests that somewhere between twelve and twenty-five per cent of current LAB voters on YouGov's panel can't remember how they voted two years ago, or simply lied about it for no gain to a pollster who had recorded their previous answers.
What on earth is going on? (1) coincidence (2) denial or (3) gaming the system?
My guess is some mix of:
- people (perhaps younger?) caught up in 2017 Corbymania who no longer remember it;
- remainers (Greens/LibDems) who voted tactically Labour in 2017 who no longer remember it;
- remainers who regret having supported Labour given its prolonged fence sitting (or for whom the fence was acceptable in 2017 but unacceptable in a more polarised 2019) and don't want to remember/admit having done so;
- people who are still Labour supporters but shy of admitting it given the current racism furore (or who will return to being Labour supporters but are currently in denial).
If the EU had negotiated the exact same deal with Labour, it'd have been hailed as a triumph by Corbyn and co. I'm not certain the Tory front bench would have opposed it in quite the same way Labour has... The tribal Labour view that anything Tory = BAD is simply stronger in Labour than plenty of places elsewhere. The grand coalitions in Germany for instance, I don't think we could do anything like that here. And the reason is that for Labour a red rose on horse shit would be superior to a Tory cure for all cancer.
With a different PD including Customs Union + allignment on social, environmental and agriculture policy then Labour could support. Not May's PD though.
I think the idea the EU will not negotiate a deal on the succession of Boris is unrealistic.
The EU know they cannot just dismiss Boris as they would be blamed for the no deal outcome and the economic chaos that will hit right across the EU and of course here at home
Barnier was furious when he was told the WDA is dead but I suspect he is more concerned about his own legacy, as a no deal would be a personal disaster for him
It is perfectly possible the EU will put up the shutters but it is also possible that a deal of some form will be agreed
And to those who say there is no one in Brussels to deal with that is not true as long as Barnier and Junckers are in Office
You’re behind the curve, as is @rcs1000. A majority of both Leavers and Remainers would be unhappy with this now. Both want to grind the other into the dust. The detail is now a symbol.
I think that's sadly true, but how do you define "dust"? Leaving the EU will be hugely symbolic, even if in practice it changes virtually nothing at all. I think that Boris has the cheery air to sell it as virtually total victory over the evil foot-dragging Remoaners. "We've had three years of waffle and paralysis. I've got us OUT. Now let's move forward and attend to all the stuff that needs doing." Most Leavers aren't AFAIK especially against any particular EU thing. They just want us to leave.
Leavers aren’t supporting Boris Johnson because of his charisma. They’re supporting him because they think his charisma will secure them what they want: total victory. If they don’t get that, they’ll eviscerate him.
The only Brexit that will satisfy the growing band of loons is one that they believes leaves the EU defeated. They see this as a war and they regard the EU as our enemy. Only victory will suffice. And that is why they can never, ever be satisfied.
If the EU had negotiated the exact same deal with Labour, it'd have been hailed as a triumph by Corbyn and co. I'm not certain the Tory front bench would have opposed it in quite the same way Labour has... The tribal Labour view that anything Tory = BAD is simply stronger in Labour than plenty of places elsewhere. The grand coalitions in Germany for instance, I don't think we could do anything like that here. And the reason is that for Labour a red rose on horse shit would be superior to a Tory cure for all cancer.
Well yes, hence Labour's current policy that they are in favour of a referendum on any deal, and they will campaign for Remain on any deal negotiated by the Tories (whatever it says!). If they negotiate a deal then they will decide later.
I think the idea the EU will not negotiate a deal on the succession of Boris is unrealistic.
The EU know they cannot just dismiss Boris as they would be blamed for the no deal outcome and the economic chaos that will hit right across the EU and of course here at home
Barnier was furious when he was told the WDA is dead but I suspect he is more concerned about his own legacy, as a no deal would be a personal disaster for him
It is perfectly possible the EU will put up the shutters but it is also possible that a deal of some form will be agreed
And to those who say there is no one in Brussels to deal with that is not true as long as Barnier and Junckers are in Office
They simply do not have the authority to renegotiate. The EU has reached its agreed position and in its eyes has signed a deal with Britain. No one on the EU side has yet been mandated to reopen it.
If the EU had negotiated the exact same deal with Labour, it'd have been hailed as a triumph by Corbyn and co. I'm not certain the Tory front bench would have opposed it in quite the same way Labour has... The tribal Labour view that anything Tory = BAD is simply stronger in Labour than plenty of places elsewhere. The grand coalitions in Germany for instance, I don't think we could do anything like that here. And the reason is that for Labour a red rose on horse shit would be superior to a Tory cure for all cancer.
Pertinent are the tribal way May went about Brexit from the outset, refusing any sort of cross-party conversation or concessions (even after losing her majority) until way too late, and Labour's clinging to the hope of a re-run of Corbymania projecting them into power if only they could bring down the government and force a GE.
With different political circumstances and management a more co-operative outcome might have been possible.
This is cloud cuckoo land stuff. I have just retired and only deregistered for Vat earlier in the year and the deregistered of my company was finalised in June. Yet I have received absolutely nothing, not a word (presumably because there is nothing concrete to tell me) on what I should do when we leave. Pre customs union I was stopped 100% of the time in France when using carnets. So what happens on 1 Nov? What would I do? How does Boris stop that happening? What are the French going to do? Am I going to have tariffs on goods I'm not actually even exporting? This isn't a problem created by the French so presumably they will have no option but to treat everything as an import until resolved. Then there is Intrastat. Not a word on that either. What will the rules be?
What are the solutions HY, Viceroy, Philip? If I hadn't already done so would I just wind up my business?
I think the idea the EU will not negotiate a deal on the succession of Boris is unrealistic.
The EU know they cannot just dismiss Boris as they would be blamed for the no deal outcome and the economic chaos that will hit right across the EU and of course here at home
Barnier was furious when he was told the WDA is dead but I suspect he is more concerned about his own legacy, as a no deal would be a personal disaster for him
It is perfectly possible the EU will put up the shutters but it is also possible that a deal of some form will be agreed
And to those who say there is no one in Brussels to deal with that is not true as long as Barnier and Junckers are in Office
This is cloud cuckoo land stuff. I have just retired and only deregistered for Vat earlier in the year and the deregistered of my company was finalised in June. Yet I have received absolutely nothing, not a word (presumably because there is nothing concrete to tell me) on what I should do when we leave. Pre customs union I was stopped 100% of the time in France when using carnets. So what happens on 1 Nov? What would I do? How does Boris stop that happening? What are the French going to do? Am I going to have tariffs on goods I'm not actually even exporting? This isn't a problem created by the French so presumably they will have no option but to treat everything as an import until resolved. Then there is Intrastat. Not a word on that either. What will the rules be?
What are the solutions HY, Viceroy, Philip? If I hadn't already done so would I just wind up my business?
Furthermore, such a high profile campaign will stoke up fear across the business sector and the resultant furore would force HMG to abandon any suggestion of no deal. Maybe that is what Bozo has in mind, to force the extension he needs?
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
So instead of the German car makers it's now the actual EU that will ride to our rescue. Deluded is being kind.
This is cloud cuckoo land stuff. I have just retired and only deregistered for Vat earlier in the year and the deregistered of my company was finalised in June. Yet I have received absolutely nothing, not a word (presumably because there is nothing concrete to tell me) on what I should do when we leave. Pre customs union I was stopped 100% of the time in France when using carnets. So what happens on 1 Nov? What would I do? How does Boris stop that happening? What are the French going to do? Am I going to have tariffs on goods I'm not actually even exporting? This isn't a problem created by the French so presumably they will have no option but to treat everything as an import until resolved. Then there is Intrastat. Not a word on that either. What will the rules be?
What are the solutions HY, Viceroy, Philip? If I hadn't already done so would I just wind up my business?
You are never going to get practical answers from Brexiteers. They are flying blind. As ideologues, practical problem-solving is beneath them. Getting hands dirty is for ordinary people, not Übermenschen.
Has Johnson really proposed this by the way? It’s like May deal plus plus plus (or minus minus minus).
Catching up on last night's Peston, I see Bozo is proposing a longer transition (but ending "before next election" - further evidence against HY's contention of an early GE)
The WA provides for exactly that. Perhaps that's his plan, as some of us opined some time ago.
The incoming new team do not srart until November, and Ursula has said that there will be no renegotiation of the WA. Boris has sworn to leave on Halloween.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
That the new team don't start until November gives them the perfect coverage to lean on the outgoing - who have their pensions secure, don't need to justify their actions to anyone - to tweak the deal. The timing is quite helpful....
So instead of the German car makers it's now the actual EU that will ride to our rescue. Deluded is being kind.
Goodwill for the UK government among the outgoing top team in Brussels is nil. They think that Whitehall and Westminster is jam-packed full of retards. They ain’t wrong.
I think the idea the EU will not negotiate a deal on the succession of Boris is unrealistic.
The EU know they cannot just dismiss Boris as they would be blamed for the no deal outcome and the economic chaos that will hit right across the EU and of course here at home
Barnier was furious when he was told the WDA is dead but I suspect he is more concerned about his own legacy, as a no deal would be a personal disaster for him
It is perfectly possible the EU will put up the shutters but it is also possible that a deal of some form will be agreed
And to those who say there is no one in Brussels to deal with that is not true as long as Barnier and Junckers are in Office
Any further re-negotiation needs time and a change to the red lines. Tusk and Barnier will not undermine the new team, indeed they have endorsed them.
Comments
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1151617976396898305?s=21
Any US president has at least some claim to be bestriding the earth. Corbyn not so much.
All political careers end in failure, Jezza too. When he ceases to appeal to his own party, and cannot hold poll share, he is doomed. Few Labour voters want an antisemitic Leaver for leader..
There is the small problem that the EU is not likely to approve, and that there are no negotiations. The options are unchanged:
1) WA inc Backstop
2) No Deal.
3) Extend for a referendum/Election
4) Revoke
Anyone proposing anything else is searching for a unicorn ridden by a leprechaun.
Still pay, still can’t sign other trade deals, still have FOM...
Yes. Although I agree with the lead and can see the flaw in upweighting by recall that most of the other companies are doing, there is one caveat to the YouGov approach. This is that there remain a bunch of voters who actually voted Labour last time who don’t recall (or own up to) having done so now. If whatever factors led them to vote Labour last time happen to recur during the next election, it gives that party a potential upside on its current poll ratings.
Indeed Labour’s stock has fallen so far that we may indeed have shy Labour voters, shy to admit it in retrospect - the mirror of the problem with the Tories that led to weighting by past vote in the first place.
2) there are no negotiations on changing the WA.
The EU would be happy to have us close and would hope to wait for a dropping back in when the time is right.
If you want indefinite transition (May negotiated a further year with some difficulty) then the WA needs to be passed, including the backstop. That gets transition until Dec 2021, then beg for further extension.
It is not going to happen.
The idea that Boris would pass such a deal on the backs of opposition votes is delusional.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/18/abusive-woman-billed-for-85000-after-raf-scrambled-to-escort-plane
But something has to give. This outcome is the one the greatest number of people can live with.
“the Brexit demon has unleashed such an aggressive and regressive right-wing English nationalism… the Conservative Party is converting itself into an English nationalist party.”
Clegg said of Boris Johnson, who is set to become prime minister next week, “the more you see of him, the less impressive he is. With familiarity, he diminishes.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/exclusive-nick-clegg-brexit-likely-means-end-united-kingdom#amp
None of these 3 are in present, and cannot be before Halloween. There will be no renegotiation. The 4 options: WA, No Deal, Revote, Revoke are the only 4 options.
Translation: they want the protection of numbers.
The Grieve amendment that Bercow didn’t take was moved in and overwhelmingly carried by the Lords. Puts the Commons on the spot this evening.
You don’t want to go there. Revoke is the only sane endpoint.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1151744312767631361
edit/ now 2.66
And as another clown, Farage will have the undoubted advantage of not occupying a position of responsibility.
What on earth is going on? (1) coincidence (2) denial or (3) gaming the system?
The tribal Labour view that anything Tory = BAD is simply stronger in Labour than plenty of places elsewhere. The grand coalitions in Germany for instance, I don't think we could do anything like that here. And the reason is that for Labour a red rose on horse shit would be superior to a Tory cure for all cancer.
- people (perhaps younger?) caught up in 2017 Corbymania who no longer remember it;
- remainers (Greens/LibDems) who voted tactically Labour in 2017 who no longer remember it;
- remainers who regret having supported Labour given its prolonged fence sitting (or for whom the fence was acceptable in 2017 but unacceptable in a more polarised 2019) and don't want to remember/admit having done so;
- people who are still Labour supporters but shy of admitting it given the current racism furore (or who will return to being Labour supporters but are currently in denial).
I think the idea the EU will not negotiate a deal on the succession of Boris is unrealistic.
The EU know they cannot just dismiss Boris as they would be blamed for the no deal outcome and the economic chaos that will hit right across the EU and of course here at home
Barnier was furious when he was told the WDA is dead but I suspect he is more concerned about his own legacy, as a no deal would be a personal disaster for him
It is perfectly possible the EU will put up the shutters but it is also possible that a deal of some form will be agreed
And to those who say there is no one in Brussels to deal with that is not true as long as Barnier and Junckers are in Office
With different political circumstances and management a more co-operative outcome might have been possible.
What are the solutions HY, Viceroy, Philip? If I hadn't already done so would I just wind up my business?