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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls
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Interesting observation on voter recall. I fhink the crucial implication is that people are now ashamed of having voted Labour - because of antisemitism and the farcical Brexit equivocation - so are denying having done so.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1151602880383770624?s=21
Resign from what? From Cabinet?
What - is May going to sack them?
The line from the Labour spokesman was that Diane Hayter's remarks were insensitive to Jews.
Her sacking was inevitable but only because she spoke out against the great Leader.
We jumped that shark sometime ago with Johnny Mercer’s demented letter telling Mrs May “you’re not the boss of me”, or whatever it was.
There's clearly something else going on.
Hehe.
One of the oddities of the current sterling market is that volatility hasn't markedly increased. Given that we are facing an imminent choice between two outcomes with wildly different implications for sterling, that's very strange.
Is he suggesting that it is a God-given Englishman’s liberty to send rotting fish through the post?
Is that what this is all about?
Let’s face it, it’s no “Krushchev’s shoe”, is it?
Erm... It's 17th July Diane. When is this leadership challenge going to be fitted in?
They should stay in their posts, vote for whatever measures are intended to stop suspension and then sit back and hopefully watch as absolutely nothing happens to them. It would be utterly perverse if May were to sack anyone over it.
Is it that he wants to deviate from EU food packaging regulations, yet still have free movement of kipper exports?
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1151601571869974529
I have experienced several people in reality with a comedy persona similar to Boris and people around them become conditioned to laughing whenever they say something even if it is not funny or completely inappropriate.
Understandably. Hitler was a Zionist. Ken keeps telling us. And we know what Corbyn thinks of them.
Lega Nord still well ahead on 37.7%, the Democratic Party second on 22%, Five Star third on 17.9% with Forza Italia on 7%
http://tg.la7.it/sondaggi/il-sondaggio-politico-di-lunedì-15-luglio-2019-15-07-2019-140645
FI seem pretty redundant btw.
So far, not much.
Nothing has Changed, ironically.
Neither the maths in Parliament, nor the prospect of winning a GE without any kind of credible plan. Hence the massive tax cuts, and a huge rise in spending, whilst ignoring Brexit ideas of some days ago.
Their goal is deselections and a democratic centralist Labour that is unflinchingly loyal to the leadership - even on appalling stuff like antisemitism. As we've seen, these are people who thought nothing of trying to trash ex-staffers with heartbreaking stories.
They know they have the PLP in a bind, as speaking up means abuse and deselections and a challenge is thought likely to fail, and so have calculated they can push them about as far as they like. Even Watson is now in open warfare with the leadership.
Given the nature of the PLP, you'd imagine it'll just involve more grumbling before stepping down and deselections. But maybe, Corbyn and his acolytes wrongly calculate and push them too far and, especially if Watson decides he's had enough, they decide they might as well have one last stand before splitting.
Reach has submitted an indicative offer for JPI Media, which owns The Scotsman and Yorkshire Post, Sky News learns.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/mirror-and-express-owner-enters-race-to-buy-the-i-publisher-11765053
Although that is not to say that one couldn't be built to get, say, Germany into the program.
The UK already has 15% workshare and won't buy any more a/c no matter what baubles are dangled so there is no point in moving it to the UK.
I'd reckon something like LD 40%, Con 35% is a bit more likely.
Essentially, it means that on October 31, people will be cheering because we're out the EU. But come 2022, people will begin to notice that we're still in the transitional arrangements, which involve us paying money to Brussels, are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (the EEA at least has the EFTA Court in Luxembourg), and still have Freedom of Movement.
From a personal perspective, I welcome it as an outcome. It's always been the political bit I've had an issue with, and would have been happy with EFTA/EEA as a destination. But ERG/BXP types are surely going to feel pretty pissed when they discover the transition is a perpetual one.
Let's say Boris delivers this BINO (which, ironically, is massively more BINO than Mrs May's deal), well a third of Leave voters - people like me and SeanT and Richard_Tyndall - will be very happy. We got what we wanted.
Most Remain voters will be happy.
And about two thirds of Leave voters - about a third of the population - will be unhappy.
There's room for Mr Farage there. And there's a lot of evidence (from Mathew Goodwin) that there's a hole in the market for an economically left wing, socially conservative, Eurosceptic Party. The difficulty for Mr Farage will be tempering his libertarian instincts to turn the Brexit Party into that,
I see Johnson is reportedly going to appoint another of the Grieve/May/Green/Duncan Oxford generation - Daniel Moylan to Brexit advisor - by repute a “hard Brexiteer” with an Irish passport - but also held CrossRail’s feet to the fire when Johnson was Mayor and nay have been a loss when Khan sacked him.
Trump blasts minority Democrats, rally crowd chants 'send her back'
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/453644-trump-blasts-minority-democrats-rally-crowd-chants-send-her-back
It will crush the careers of many, and will be a hot topic of political debate for decades to come