Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to rate Trump as having a near 50% chance of

124»

Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just been digging through the ComRes tables.

    Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election:
    Greens 15.9%
    Plaid Cymru 13.3%
    Lib Dems 8.9%
    SNP 8.3%
    Labour 7.8%
    Brexit Party 6.9%
    Conservatives 4.5%

    We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?

    Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.

    Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

    Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
    Conservatives 57%
    Labour 20%
    Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
    Did not vote 7%
    Lib Dems 3%
    SNP 0.6%
    Plaid Cymru 0.3%

    This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

    Table 30, page 34

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

    So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
    If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
    The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.

    However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
    Thanks HYUFD. I was beginning to get withdrawal symptoms. I hadn't seen that poll for at least a couple of hours
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    The principle is important, Wes shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    ‪Anyone who calls Corbyn a racist, but not Trump, is a hypocrite who has no genuine interest in opposing racism, but is using it for political ends. And vice versa, of course.‬

    Do you support use of the word "racist" to describe people who are, say, anti-Islam, even though Islam clearly isn't a race and there are plenty of white Muslims in places like Bosnia?
    Definition Of Race According To The Equality Act 2010
    The Act is clear in its definition of race. Race means being part of a group of people who are identified by their nationality, citizenship, colour, national or ethnic origins.

    https://www.eoc.org.uk/race-discrimination/
    Doesn't include religion.
    There isn't an equivalent term 'religionist' to cover Religious/Belief Discrimination (which is also included in the Equality Act of course). I think most peole would accept the term 'racist' for someone who is virulently anti-Islam.
    Surely it depends why someone is virulently anti-Islam?

    If they're virulently anti-Islam because they don't like those foreign sounding people and their faith then yes that is ignorant and racist.

    If they're virulently anti-Islam because like Professor Richard Dawkins they are generally virulently anti-religion in general then is that racist?
    I'd say one of the points established by the Supreme Court, in the Ashers Bakery case is that it is legitimate to discriminate against beliefs, but not people.

    So, it would be lawful to refuse to print Catholic devotional material, but unlawful to deny someone s job because they are Catholic.
    Which is fair.

    I don't like Islam. I also don't like Christianity. The beliefs, doesn't mean I will prejudice or discriminate against either.

    I would rather a secular Muslim politician than a bible thumping Christian.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    £/€ three month low 1.1087
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Just been digging through the ComRes tables.

    Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election:
    Greens 15.9%
    Plaid Cymru 13.3%
    Lib Dems 8.9%
    SNP 8.3%
    Labour 7.8%
    Brexit Party 6.9%
    Conservatives 4.5%

    We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?

    Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.

    Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

    Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
    Conservatives 57%
    Labour 20%
    Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
    Did not vote 7%
    Lib Dems 3%
    SNP 0.6%
    Plaid Cymru 0.3%

    This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

    Table 30, page 34

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

    Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
    One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
    Most of the Brexit Party vote is ex Tory but by no means all, indeed in solid Labour and 68% Leave Barnsley the Brexit Party won over 50% in the European Parliament elections.

    In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd helped by Labour voters voting UKIP rather than for Ed Miliband's Labour however Labour regained the seat in 2017 as Corbyn Labour won some of that vote back
    Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.
    Given 57% of the Brexit Party vote is made up of ex Tories more 2017 Tories are now voting Brexit Party than there are Remainers still voting Tory
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just been digging through the ComRes tables.

    Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election:
    Greens 15.9%
    Plaid Cymru 13.3%
    Lib Dems 8.9%
    SNP 8.3%
    Labour 7.8%
    Brexit Party 6.9%
    Conservatives 4.5%

    We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?

    Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.

    Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

    Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
    Conservatives 57%
    Labour 20%
    Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
    Did not vote 7%
    Lib Dems 3%
    SNP 0.6%
    Plaid Cymru 0.3%

    This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

    Table 30, page 34

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

    So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
    If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
    The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.

    However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
    Thanks HYUFD. I was beginning to get withdrawal symptoms. I hadn't seen that poll for at least a couple of hours
    You're clearly not Czeching the page often enough.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Roger said:

    Just heard an American on R4 say 'Donald Trump keeps saying racist things but I honestly don't think he's a racist'

    If he is irrationally prejudiced against everyone who isnt named President Donald J Trump, then is he still a racist or just very weird and objectionable?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just been digging through the ComRes tables.

    Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election:
    Greens 15.9%
    Plaid Cymru 13.3%
    Lib Dems 8.9%
    SNP 8.3%
    Labour 7.8%
    Brexit Party 6.9%
    Conservatives 4.5%

    We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?

    Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.

    Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

    Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
    Conservatives 57%
    Labour 20%
    Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
    Did not vote 7%
    Lib Dems 3%
    SNP 0.6%
    Plaid Cymru 0.3%

    This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

    Table 30, page 34

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

    So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
    If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
    The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.

    However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
    Thanks HYUFD. I was beginning to get withdrawal symptoms. I hadn't seen that poll for at least a couple of hours
    You're clearly not Czeching the page often enough.
    I imagine he's Czeching very regularly, he's just a bit Slovak doing it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    HYUFD said:

    Well indeed, Macron vetoes what she thinks is irrelevant as extension needs all 27 to agree.

    Not of course Boris would ask for an extension anyway as he knows not only would he lose the party it would likely lead to PM Farage unless he had already won a majority by that point and could pass the Withdrawal Agreement with just a short tidying up extension
    I can see it now:

    “This is just a short tidying up extension of 18 months to take us to the end of the transition. We’ll be out before the next election, don’t you worry!”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just been digging through the ComRes tables.

    Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election:
    Greens 15.9%
    Plaid Cymru 13.3%
    Lib Dems 8.9%
    SNP 8.3%
    Labour 7.8%
    Brexit Party 6.9%
    Conservatives 4.5%

    We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?

    Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.

    Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

    Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
    Conservatives 57%
    Labour 20%
    Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
    Did not vote 7%
    Lib Dems 3%
    SNP 0.6%
    Plaid Cymru 0.3%

    This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

    Table 30, page 34

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

    So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
    If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
    The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.

    However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
    Thanks HYUFD. I was beginning to get withdrawal symptoms. I hadn't seen that poll for at least a couple of hours
    You're clearly not Czeching the page often enough.
    I imagine he's Czeching very regularly, he's just a bit Slovak doing it.
    Then he should be Hungary for more information.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    Also not correct:

    http://www.twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1150688574175666177

    But hey, tribalists don't let facts get in the way of their supporters, do they?
    I think Trump successfully lowered the bar on racism/anti semitism this morning It now officially stands at telling 'others' to GO HOME. Thus all of Labour and most of the Tories are now in the clear.

    Phew!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    Also not correct:

    http://www.twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1150688574175666177

    But hey, tribalists don't let facts get in the way of their supporters, do they?
    I think Trump successfully lowered the bar on racism/anti semitism this morning It now officially stands at telling 'others' to GO HOME. Thus all of Labour and most of the Tories are now in the clear.

    Phew!!
    Well, given all Labour's problems are tied up with trying to get the Jews to leave the Middle East, that's one trope they can't be accused of following!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited July 2019

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ursula von der Leyen making waves:

    1. she is open to another extension
    2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA

    It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.

    Today’s vote is far from a formality.
    “Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz

    She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
    DavidL said:

    Ursula von der Leyen making waves:

    1. she is open to another extension
    2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA

    It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.

    Today’s vote is far from a formality.
    “Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz

    She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
    None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
    Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
    Avoiding Junker's incompetence, Selmayr's malevolence and Barnier's intransigence could be a help.
    You can hardly say that Britain's Brexit ministers have been from the top of the intellectual tree, to be fair.
    Thank goodness we're about to have a PM who's noted for his competence, a stranger to malevolence and entirely transigient (when it comes to principles anyway).

    Still, *optimism*.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    The Democrats would be mad not to choose Biden.

    The trouble is the more voters see of Biden the less they like him.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
    The Tory Party is now completely detached from reality. It becomes harder and harder to see how Brexit can be delivered.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    The principle is important, Wes shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty.
    Durham Miners' Gala!

    Is it Labour Party policy to bring back coal mining?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    Also not correct:

    http://www.twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1150688574175666177

    But hey, tribalists don't let facts get in the way of their supporters, do they?
    I think Trump successfully lowered the bar on racism/anti semitism this morning It now officially stands at telling 'others' to GO HOME. Thus all of Labour and most of the Tories are now in the clear.

    Phew!!
    Well, given all Labour's problems are tied up with trying to get the Jews to leave the Middle East, that's one trope they can't be accused of following!
    An interesting factoid. The biggest percentage population of Jews living anywhere outside of Israel is Monaco (close to where I will be this afternoon) Two I know personally and the other two by reputation only. Roman Abramovich and Sir Philip Green.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
    The entire political system is now completely detached from reality. It becomes harder and harder to see how Brexit can be delivered.
    FTFY
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
    I find that it’s a good measure of the probability of certain outcomes. Betting but on a much larger scale and possibly better informed and divorced of prejudice.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just been digging through the ComRes tables.

    Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election:
    Greens 15.9%
    Plaid Cymru 13.3%
    Lib Dems 8.9%
    SNP 8.3%
    Labour 7.8%
    Brexit Party 6.9%
    Conservatives 4.5%

    We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?

    Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.

    Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

    Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
    Conservatives 57%
    Labour 20%
    Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
    Did not vote 7%
    Lib Dems 3%
    SNP 0.6%
    Plaid Cymru 0.3%

    This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

    Table 30, page 34

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

    So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
    If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
    The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.

    However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
    Thanks HYUFD. I was beginning to get withdrawal symptoms. I hadn't seen that poll for at least a couple of hours
    You're clearly not Czeching the page often enough.
    I imagine he's Czeching very regularly, he's just a bit Slovak doing it.
    Then he should be Hungary for more information.
    He's hardly in "Pole" position... Bloody Romainians
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
    The entire political system is now completely detached from reality. It becomes harder and harder to see how Brexit can be delivered.
    FTFY
    Have you just sold you left over euros from last years holiday then?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    Viceroy said:

    Trump has been a great US President.

    By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.

    The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.

    Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
    "Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself? ;)
    In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.

    Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
    Nah, @Viceroy just likes trolling. His view that Rhodes was just looking for lebensraum and therefore deserves to be on the £50 note are so wonderfully OTT that he can only be a spoof.
    Mind you, it would be very funny to put Rhodes on the £50 note.

    Joking aside, Rhodes was more of a grey hat than a black hat.
    A very dark grey.

    Curiously, despite his unwavering belief in the superiority of the "white race", the Rhodes scholarships established under his will had the stipulation, "No student shall be qualified or disqualified.. on account of his race or religious opinions".
    Though one suspects this might have been intended to allow for either British or Americans without discrimination...

    And notable that he directed as much of his legacy be set aside for Oriel High Table as for the college repair fund.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nichomar said:

    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
    I find that it’s a good measure of the probability of certain outcomes. Betting but on a much larger scale and possibly better informed and divorced of prejudice.
    Some pro Leave Tories are even concerned by that . It will also go down very badly in Ireland and NI.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    £/€ three month low 1.1087

    A likely reaction to last nights debate . Both have gone full batshit crazy now by ditching the backstop completely .
    The entire political system is now completely detached from reality. It becomes harder and harder to see how Brexit can be delivered.
    FTFY
    Have you just sold you left over euros from last years holiday then?
    Not yet. I'm waiting either for the Euro to hit parity or for a Mediterranean holiday in October :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Democrats would be mad not to choose Biden.

    The trouble is the more voters see of Biden the less they like him.
    Though I think he can be trusted to keep his clothes on, so that might not matter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Democrats would be mad not to choose Biden.

    The trouble is the more voters see of Biden the less they like him.
    Though I think he can be trusted to keep his clothes on, so that might not matter.
    There is an image I could have done without.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    The principle is important, Wes shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty.

    What was the dishonesty, specifically?

  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    From Junker to Von Der Leyen, alcoholism to abstinence. Well, its a start.

    I don't pretend to be that knowledgeable about German politics but there does seem to be a consensus that she has been both incompetent and, perhaps, corrupt in her administration of the Defence Ministry. There are investigations about contracts for millions of Euros given to the usual suspects outwith any tendering process.

    So she would be a sober, somewhat more honest politician than Juncker?

    I find it interesting that vdL is taking a position on the WA and the extension which of itself guarantees the opposition of well over 30 MEPs. Reversing her position would seem to guarantee her those votes and probably not cost her many elsewhere. Therefore, one of the following must be true,

    1) the vote isn't as close as it is being portrayed
    2) she doesn't want the job
    3) she is terminally stupid

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    From Junker to Von Der Leyen, alcoholism to abstinence. Well, its a start.

    I don't pretend to be that knowledgeable about German politics but there does seem to be a consensus that she has been both incompetent and, perhaps, corrupt in her administration of the Defence Ministry. There are investigations about contracts for millions of Euros given to the usual suspects outwith any tendering process.

    So she would be a sober, somewhat more honest politician than Juncker?

    I find it interesting that vdL is taking a position on the WA and the extension which of itself guarantees the opposition of well over 30 MEPs. Reversing her position would seem to guarantee her those votes and probably not cost her many elsewhere. Therefore, one of the following must be true,

    1) the vote isn't as close as it is being portrayed
    2) she doesn't want the job
    3) she is terminally stupid

    Candidate for Prezzy of the Comm?

    I'll take (3) as a working hypothesis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.
    Unfortunately the British economy is not the Road Runner, and we may expect it to crash to the bottom of the cliff rather than defy he law of gravity 'because it never studied law.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Democrats would be mad not to choose Biden.

    The trouble is the more voters see of Biden the less they like him.
    Though I think he can be trusted to keep his clothes on, so that might not matter.
    There is an image I could have done without.
    I think we can achieve consensus with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    A funding collapse for O'Rourke.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/453213-orourke-raises-36-million-in-second-quarter

    Without a spectacular performance at the next debate, I think his presidential campaign is about over.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    edited July 2019
    I work in County Durham and can confirm that most normal people couldn’t give two shits about the Durham Miners’ Gala.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    TOPPING said:

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    The principle is important, Wes shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty.
    Durham Miners' Gala!

    Is it Labour Party policy to bring back coal mining?
    Maybe he wants to reopen all the pits Blair shut down.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.
    Unfortunately the British economy is not the Road Runner, and we may expect it to crash to the bottom of the cliff rather than defy he law of gravity 'because it never studied law.'
    We will see, but from having watched many episodes of Road Runner as a child I think what is supposed to happen is the EU will run after us and they will crash to the bottom of the cliff instead.

    A cartoonish analogy sure but being serious the EU needs to think we are prepared to go over the edge if they are to blink and change the deal and remove the backstop trap.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    But it's the milkshakes that are the problem.

    https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1150807554970333184?s=19
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I work in County Durham and can confirm that most normal people couldn’t give two shits about the Durham Miners’ Gala.

    They had a choice of three. Corbyn, McCluskey and Pidcock were all there.

    Have a good morning.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    And who will win Beaconsfield at the ensuing election?

    Its sad that Grieve has been driven so mad by Brexit that someone of his clear talents can't be in Parliament any more if it comes to it, but he needs to go.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    The principle is important, Wes shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty.

    What was the dishonesty, specifically?

    Didn't mention the important context that she's a "young mum" or a "female colleague".... Those nuances are clearly important it seems ???
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593

    I work in County Durham and can confirm that most normal people couldn’t give two shits about the Durham Miners’ Gala.

    It's Disneyworld for middle class lefties.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.
    Which is a rather amusing analogy, aside from the fact that a Boris UK would be Wile E Coyote running off a cliff in a hilarious fashion, and the EU Road Runner ...

    Brexit is exactly like the one time Wile E Coyote caught Road Runner. "Now what do we do?"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJJW7EF5aVk
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Zephyr said:

    Turns out Wes Streeting was lying to attack new Mum Laura Pidcock...

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1150691082579189766

    You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....

    Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
    The principle is important, Wes shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty.
    And Corbyn shouldn't benefit from his dishonesty when he calls himself an "anti-racist", when - at best - he's an excuser and denier of anti-Semtism.

    Labour's in a mess. It's an utterly self-induced mess, and you should look at the true cause rather than howling at people outside.

    And that true cause is Corbyn and his followers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    ydoethur said:

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.
    Unfortunately the British economy is not the Road Runner, and we may expect it to crash to the bottom of the cliff rather than defy he law of gravity 'because it never studied law.'
    We will see, but from having watched many episodes of Road Runner as a child I think what is supposed to happen is the EU will run after us and they will crash to the bottom of the cliff instead.

    A cartoonish analogy sure but being serious the EU needs to think we are prepared to go over the edge if they are to blink and change the deal and remove the backstop trap.
    "Being serious"...

    I'd say you need to try harder, but I don't think that's going to help.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707

    I find it interesting that vdL is taking a position on the WA and the extension which of itself guarantees the opposition of well over 30 MEPs. Reversing her position would seem to guarantee her those votes and probably not cost her many elsewhere.

    I think it would potentially cost her votes all over the place, not to mention committing her to a really terrible idea.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Stuart Rose not too happy this morning:

    Wage growth in the UK rose to 3.6% in the year to May 2019, the highest growth rate since 2008

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49002056

    Hopefully we can keep the rate of pay increases above that of house price increases for a few years to repair some of the damage of Osbrowne economics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Nigelb said:

    A funding collapse for O'Rourke.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/453213-orourke-raises-36-million-in-second-quarter

    Without a spectacular performance at the next debate, I think his presidential campaign is about over.

    And an excellent breakdown of all the Democratic candidates' last quarter fundraising here:
    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/president/democratic-primary/candidates/fundraising-and-campaign-finance-tracker/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    A perceptive Brussels correspondent writes:

    Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.

    Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic

    Good! That is what we need and why it has to be Boris and not Continuity May.

    Since people keep using this cartoon analogy of a cliff edge, I will roll with that. Yes the EU may be bigger and badder than the UK but big doesn't always win. The EU is Wile E Coyote and we can see ACME written on the backstop trap that the EU is trying to catch us in as we approach the cliff edge.

    We need Boris as PM, someone who is prepared to look at the cliff edge, look at the Wile E Coyote EU, back to the cliff edge and say "Meep Meep" and then run over the edge.
    That's a cartoon. In the real world, people intending to jump over cliffs usually find themselves physically restrained and often committed to a mental hospital.

    Unless, apparently, they are politicians intending to take the whole country with them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    A funding collapse for O'Rourke.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/453213-orourke-raises-36-million-in-second-quarter

    Without a spectacular performance at the next debate, I think his presidential campaign is about over.

    And an excellent breakdown of all the Democratic candidates' last quarter fundraising here:
    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/president/democratic-primary/candidates/fundraising-and-campaign-finance-tracker/
    Delaney's fundraising figures are weirdly high for his low profile. I think I've probably wasted £2 at 1000-1 or some such on him
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.

    I think the UK being out of but next to the Single Market can get the maximum amount of benefits from the Single Market existing while not paying the price, similar to how I think we gain from being out of but next door to the Single Currency.

    Yes we may have a bit of red tape to deal with when exporting and importing into Europe. But it will be one set of red tape we can get used to. It doesn't matter whether exporting to Ireland [unless alternative arrangements are made], France, Netherland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Romania or more . . . we can get used to one set of red tape to follow while simultaneously having all the flexibility of setting our own rules at home. Win/win.

    Same as when we go abroad we can get all the benefits of having pound sterling at home, while only needing to worry about one currency to exchange with when we travel around Europe. Win/win.

    The Eurozone pays the price of having a single currency with only one Central Bank but we benefit as an externality. Same can happen with the Single Market.

    Irish exporters if they don't reach a deal with us though, as they use the land bridge may end up having to change markets twice rather than just once for us.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Drutt said:

    Viceroy said:

    Trump has been a great US President.

    By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.

    The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.

    Trolling only really works if we think you might be serious

    He is serious (definitely a he), but he's also thick, so it makes him uninteresting.

    He's just attention-seeking by saying the first controversial thing that comes into his head. I'm sure he sees himself as an alt-right warrior whereas most of us can see him for the saddo he is. Best ignored
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Roger said:

    Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time

    He's been told explicitly by numerous members of his own party what he has to do to stop the attacks coming. Why do you think he refuses to listen?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    A funding collapse for O'Rourke.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/453213-orourke-raises-36-million-in-second-quarter

    Without a spectacular performance at the next debate, I think his presidential campaign is about over.

    And an excellent breakdown of all the Democratic candidates' last quarter fundraising here:
    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/president/democratic-primary/candidates/fundraising-and-campaign-finance-tracker/
    Delaney's fundraising figures are weirdly high for his low profile. I think I've probably wasted £2 at 1000-1 or some such on him
    To quote the linked article: Over 96 percent of Delaney’s fundraising in the second quarter came from his own pockets...

    There are plenty of rich Americans who believe, like Rhodes, that politics is a rich man's sport.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:


    Delaney's fundraising figures are weirdly high for his low profile. I think I've probably wasted £2 at 1000-1 or some such on him

    The explanation is in the article:

    Over 96 percent of Delaney’s fundraising in the second quarter came from his own pockets: He contributed $7,750,000 to his campaign. He also repaid himself $9 million in loans.

    Edit: I see @Nigelb got there first!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited July 2019

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.

    I think the UK being out of but next to the Single Market can get the maximum amount of benefits from the Single Market existing while not paying the price, similar to how I think we gain from being out of but next door to the Single Currency.

    Yes we may have a bit of red tape to deal with when exporting and importing into Europe. But it will be one set of red tape we can get used to. It doesn't matter whether exporting to Ireland [unless alternative arrangements are made], France, Netherland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Romania or more . . . we can get used to one set of red tape to follow while simultaneously having all the flexibility of setting our own rules at home. Win/win.

    Same as when we go abroad we can get all the benefits of having pound sterling at home, while only needing to worry about one currency to exchange with when we travel around Europe. Win/win.

    The Eurozone pays the price of having a single currency with only one Central Bank but we benefit as an externality. Same can happen with the Single Market.

    Irish exporters if they don't reach a deal with us though, as they use the land bridge may end up having to change markets twice rather than just once for us.
    I read to the end of your post to discover that your plan to succeed outside the single market seems to depend on Ireland helping us get a deal to keep us de facto in it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    Grieve would VONC to prevent ANY Brexit deal happening. Just showing how risible the oft-made claim that if only the ERG had all voted for May's Shit Deal, we would have had Brexit by now.

    The numbers were never there, after May's Shit Election.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Anybody know what time the VdL vote is?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.

    I think the UK being out of but next to the Single Market can get the maximum amount of benefits from the Single Market existing while not paying the price, similar to how I think we gain from being out of but next door to the Single Currency.

    Yes we may have a bit of red tape to deal with when exporting and importing into Europe. But it will be one set of red tape we can get used to. It doesn't matter whether exporting to Ireland [unless alternative arrangements are made], France, Netherland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Romania or more . . . we can get used to one set of red tape to follow while simultaneously having all the flexibility of setting our own rules at home. Win/win.

    Same as when we go abroad we can get all the benefits of having pound sterling at home, while only needing to worry about one currency to exchange with when we travel around Europe. Win/win.

    The Eurozone pays the price of having a single currency with only one Central Bank but we benefit as an externality. Same can happen with the Single Market.

    Irish exporters if they don't reach a deal with us though, as they use the land bridge may end up having to change markets twice rather than just once for us.
    I read to the end of your post to discover that your plan to succeed outside the single market seems to depend on Ireland helping us get a deal to keep us de facto in it.
    Read again as that is NOT what I wrote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    G
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    Grieve would VONC to prevent ANY Brexit deal happening. Just showing how risible the oft-made claim that if only the ERG had all voted for May's Shit Deal, we would have had Brexit by now.

    The numbers were never there, after May's Shit Election.
    These few Tory remainers were canceled out by Labour's leavers supporting the deal. The failure of Brexif rests with the ERG and DUP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.

    I think the UK being out of but next to the Single Market can get the maximum amount of benefits from the Single Market existing while not paying the price, similar to how I think we gain from being out of but next door to the Single Currency.

    Yes we may have a bit of red tape to deal with when exporting and importing into Europe. But it will be one set of red tape we can get used to. It doesn't matter whether exporting to Ireland [unless alternative arrangements are made], France, Netherland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Romania or more . . . we can get used to one set of red tape to follow while simultaneously having all the flexibility of setting our own rules at home. Win/win.

    Same as when we go abroad we can get all the benefits of having pound sterling at home, while only needing to worry about one currency to exchange with when we travel around Europe. Win/win.

    The Eurozone pays the price of having a single currency with only one Central Bank but we benefit as an externality. Same can happen with the Single Market.

    Irish exporters if they don't reach a deal with us though, as they use the land bridge may end up having to change markets twice rather than just once for us.
    I read to the end of your post to discover that your plan to succeed outside the single market seems to depend on Ireland helping us get a deal to keep us de facto in it.
    Read again as that is NOT what I wrote.
    So what was the point about the Irish exporters suffering? Schadenfreude?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    G
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    Grieve would VONC to prevent ANY Brexit deal happening. Just showing how risible the oft-made claim that if only the ERG had all voted for May's Shit Deal, we would have had Brexit by now.

    The numbers were never there, after May's Shit Election.
    Yep - so how do you resolve the issue given the very pressing time scales...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Roger said:

    Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time

    Is it a smear if it's the truth?

    How do you think Labour have allowed themselves to be painted into this corner, if it really is untrue?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    I may be pessimistic but I just don't see how any candidate beats trump unless there's a recession between now and the election (or some other major event like a war with Iran). The truth on trump is that he is largely all racist bluster and rhetoric, without having actually changed all that much domestically to be judged on other than some tax cuts and launched some trade disputes. All the stuff he does pisses off those who would never vote for him, and he hasn't done enough to deter those that did last time. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see him perform better than last time. What is there to campaign against trump on, beyond him being racists\misogynist etc, all stuff priced in and that voters were aware of last time.

    The man has done nothing with his presidency and that will be enough to see him reelected.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Roger said:

    Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time

    The correct claim is that he is utterly indifferent to racism on the part of those who are otherwise his allies. I don't think that is a minority view.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.

    I think the UK being out of but next to the Single Market can get the maximum amount of benefits from the Single Market existing while not paying the price, similar to how I think we gain from being out of but next door to the Single Currency.

    Yes we may have a bit of red tape to deal with when exporting and importing into Europe. But it will be one set of red tape we can get used to. It doesn't matter whether exporting to Ireland [unless alternative arrangements are made], France, Netherland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Romania or more . . . we can get used to one set of red tape to follow while simultaneously having all the flexibility of setting our own rules at home. Win/win.

    Same as when we go abroad we can get all the benefits of having pound sterling at home, while only needing to worry about one currency to exchange with when we travel around Europe. Win/win.

    The Eurozone pays the price of having a single currency with only one Central Bank but we benefit as an externality. Same can happen with the Single Market.

    Irish exporters if they don't reach a deal with us though, as they use the land bridge may end up having to change markets twice rather than just once for us.
    I read to the end of your post to discover that your plan to succeed outside the single market seems to depend on Ireland helping us get a deal to keep us de facto in it.
    Read again as that is NOT what I wrote.
    So what was the point about the Irish exporters suffering? Schadenfreude?
    I think it will be a good idea to agree a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. No backstop, no membership, no politics, no rule following just trade.

    If they're not interested in that, especially if its due to the Irish, then yes the Irish will suffer the most. Since the Irish have been most recalcitrant in moving on to discussing trade then that is karma not schadenfreude. We could have been talking about trade and ruled out no deal a long time ago if they'd been prepared to drop the backstop. If they're not they deserve no deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    G
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    Grieve would VONC to prevent ANY Brexit deal happening. Just showing how risible the oft-made claim that if only the ERG had all voted for May's Shit Deal, we would have had Brexit by now.

    The numbers were never there, after May's Shit Election.
    These few Tory remainers were canceled out by Labour's leavers supporting the deal. The failure of Brexif rests with the ERG and DUP
    The failure to yet implement Brexit rests with May and Robbins not achieving a deal that the DUP would support. The most basic inability to count.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    The EU is a single market for UK exporters, but for imports into the UK each EU member state is an individual country. And therein lies the problem. For many EU member state, the UK is a reasonably important export market, but it is not close to being the most important one, for others it is of low importance. The exception is Ireland, but even Ireland is less reliant than it used to be and also knows that for it No Deal really is better than a bad deal.

    I think the UK being out of but next to the Single Market can get the maximum amount of benefits from the Single Market existing while not paying the price, similar to how I think we gain from being out of but next door to the Single Currency.

    Yes we may have a bit of red tape to deal with when exporting and importing into Europe. But it will be one set of red tape we can get used to. It doesn't matter whether exporting to Ireland [unless alternative arrangements are made], France, Netherland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Romania or more . . . we can get used to one set of red tape to follow while simultaneously having all the flexibility of setting our own rules at home. Win/win.

    Same as when we go abroad we can get all the benefits of having pound sterling at home, while only needing to worry about one currency to exchange with when we travel around Europe. Win/win.

    The Eurozone pays the price of having a single currency with only one Central Bank but we benefit as an externality. Same can happen with the Single Market.

    Irish exporters if they don't reach a deal with us though, as they use the land bridge may end up having to change markets twice rather than just once for us.
    I read to the end of your post to discover that your plan to succeed outside the single market seems to depend on Ireland helping us get a deal to keep us de facto in it.
    Read again as that is NOT what I wrote.
    So what was the point about the Irish exporters suffering? Schadenfreude?
    I think it will be a good idea to agree a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. No backstop, no membership, no politics, no rule following just trade.

    If they're not interested in that, especially if its due to the Irish, then yes the Irish will suffer the most. Since the Irish have been most recalcitrant in moving on to discussing trade then that is karma not schadenfreude. We could have been talking about trade and ruled out no deal a long time ago if they'd been prepared to drop the backstop. If they're not they deserve no deal.
    Trade without (anyone else's) politics or rules? I think you're in the wrong century.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    G
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    Grieve would VONC to prevent ANY Brexit deal happening. Just showing how risible the oft-made claim that if only the ERG had all voted for May's Shit Deal, we would have had Brexit by now.

    The numbers were never there, after May's Shit Election.
    These few Tory remainers were canceled out by Labour's leavers supporting the deal. The failure of Brexif rests with the ERG and DUP
    The failure to yet implement Brexit rests with May and Robbins not achieving a deal that the DUP would support. The most basic inability to count.
    Absolutely. The DUP should have had veto rights on the deal and they would have vetoed it. May and Robbins should have said from the start any Irish solution must satisfy the DUP as well as the Taoiseach and not just one side of the negotiations.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I think it will be a good idea to agree a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. No backstop, no membership, no politics, no rule following just trade.

    If they're not interested in that, especially if its due to the Irish, then yes the Irish will suffer the most. Since the Irish have been most recalcitrant in moving on to discussing trade then that is karma not schadenfreude. We could have been talking about trade and ruled out no deal a long time ago if they'd been prepared to drop the backstop. If they're not they deserve no deal.

    Trade without (anyone else's) politics or rules? I think you're in the wrong century.
    My phone was probably made in Vietnam but the Vietnamese don't follow EU laws in Vietnam. If Vietnamese exporters wish to export phones to the EU they must meet EU CE standards but the domestic laws remain their own.

    Just as if we wish to trade with the USA we don't have American laws in the UK. Our exports may need to be FCC compliant but we don't have American laws at home.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    G
    Pulpstar said:

    Grieve gave a clear "yes" when asked if he'd VONC the Gov't this morning to prevent no deal. I think Lee can be added and there's probably a couple more - perhaps there'll be an autumn election..

    Grieve would VONC to prevent ANY Brexit deal happening. Just showing how risible the oft-made claim that if only the ERG had all voted for May's Shit Deal, we would have had Brexit by now.

    The numbers were never there, after May's Shit Election.
    These few Tory remainers were canceled out by Labour's leavers supporting the deal. The failure of Brexif rests with the ERG and DUP
    The failure to yet implement Brexit rests with May and Robbins not achieving a deal that the DUP would support. The most basic inability to count.
    Is there any deal that the DUP would support?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Just as if we wish to trade with the USA we don't have American laws in the UK. Our exports may need to be FCC compliant but we don't have American laws at home.

    You don't think the US negotiating objectives for a trade deal will involve changing any laws in the UK?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time

    He's been told explicitly by numerous members of his own party what he has to do to stop the attacks coming. Why do you think he refuses to listen?
    Because it is much more omplicated than most people believe. Even when you speak to Jewish people who understand the subject the relationship between Jews and Israel is a complex one. A lot of Jews are struggling and like politics it's not left right pro or anti Israel anymore. For Gentiles it's equally difficult. You can see wel meaning people trying desperately to appear not anti semitic but without any idea of what the boundary is or what the term means.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Just as if we wish to trade with the USA we don't have American laws in the UK. Our exports may need to be FCC compliant but we don't have American laws at home.

    You don't think the US negotiating objectives for a trade deal will involve changing any laws in the UK?
    If the US decide they want to change laws we aren't happy to change we should not sign a deal with them. Simple.

    But the EU is worse than that. The vile deal the EU has proposed is that the EU would be able to change laws in the future and we would meekly have to follow those laws without a say. Are you suggesting that to get a free trade agreement we should sign up to say that the US Congress can in future change laws and our laws must be changed to stay in lockstep with US laws without us getting a say in the matter?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Just as if we wish to trade with the USA we don't have American laws in the UK. Our exports may need to be FCC compliant but we don't have American laws at home.

    You don't think the US negotiating objectives for a trade deal will involve changing any laws in the UK?
    If the US decide they want to change laws we aren't happy to change we should not sign a deal with them. Simple.

    But the EU is worse than that. The vile deal the EU has proposed is that the EU would be able to change laws in the future and we would meekly have to follow those laws without a say.
    That's only during transition.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Just as if we wish to trade with the USA we don't have American laws in the UK. Our exports may need to be FCC compliant but we don't have American laws at home.

    You don't think the US negotiating objectives for a trade deal will involve changing any laws in the UK?
    If the US decide they want to change laws we aren't happy to change we should not sign a deal with them. Simple.

    But the EU is worse than that. The vile deal the EU has proposed is that the EU would be able to change laws in the future and we would meekly have to follow those laws without a say.
    That's only during transition.
    No it is also during the backstop.

    If it was only during transition I'd have no problem with it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Just as if we wish to trade with the USA we don't have American laws in the UK. Our exports may need to be FCC compliant but we don't have American laws at home.

    You don't think the US negotiating objectives for a trade deal will involve changing any laws in the UK?
    If the US decide they want to change laws we aren't happy to change we should not sign a deal with them. Simple.

    But the EU is worse than that. The vile deal the EU has proposed is that the EU would be able to change laws in the future and we would meekly have to follow those laws without a say.
    That's only during transition.
    No it is also during the backstop.

    If it was only during transition I'd have no problem with it.
    Only as it applies to Northern Ireland. The parts pertaining to the rest of the UK are standard customs union conditions and the EU has said we can withdraw unilaterally.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Yes, this is what happens when our politicians fail to pass the necessary gruel of the deal in front of them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Pulpstar said:

    Yes, this is what happens when our politicians fail to pass the necessary gruel of the deal in front of them.
    I wonder if this is in any way connected to the rise in wages.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The rise in wages is good news but will only be sustained with an orderly EU exit with a deal .

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Peterborough by-election fraud inquiry: No 'offences' in all cases
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Alistair said:

    But it's the milkshakes that are the problem.

    https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1150807554970333184?s=19

    Just a souvenir , no explosives in it.
This discussion has been closed.