This sort of article in the NYT is completely counterproductive IMO. The problem is Trump himself, not white men in general. But by trying to make it about white men in general, Trump's opponents play into his hands by making it more likely he'll win the next election.
Quite right. An absolute open goal - POTUS tweeting straight out racist nonsense - and their hot take is to blame the demographic he comes from, which is also the largest voting demog in the country? It's only missing the word 'deplorables'.
Have you read the article? It is about Trumps thoughts and the democrats response to them.
Just triggered by the headline, I guess. Which perhaps proves their point ?
Ah, I read through the article several times trying to find what was vaguely offensive about it to anyone bar trump but didnt really look at the headline, which doesnt particularly reflect the article beneath. Perhaps the headline is decided by an editor for clickbait, not by the journalist/commentator.
"Trump’s America Is a ‘White Man’s Country’ His racist idea of citizenship is an old one, brought back from the margins of American politics."
Even still the headline is refererring to Trumps thoughts not white mens thoughts, and says racism had been relegated to the margins of American politics, so the blame is on the person who revived the racism, not the general population of white men who helped move it to the margins.
That analysis requires thought - the reaction is, I suspect, a visceral one.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Do you know how many Delaware Presidents they've been? Errr none. Indeed, there's never even been a Democratic President from a state West of the Missouri.
I'd be surprised. The biggest chance would seem to be if the Democrats think it's in the bag and jump so far left that the floating centre would either sit on its collective hands or go for Trump.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I have read that this ban on ex-felons has resulted in up to 30% of young black men being unable to vote in states like Alabama. As a tool for minority vote suppression it is undoubtedly one of the most effective.
Do you know how many Delaware Presidents they've been? Errr none. Indeed, there's never even been a Democratic President from a state West of the Missouri.
Lyndon Johnson was a Texan.
And Harry S Truman was from Missouri itself which is almost exclusively to the west of the Missouri. He was even from Lamar which is on the far western part of the state.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
Do you know how many Delaware Presidents they've been? Errr none. Indeed, there's never even been a Democratic President from a state West of the Missouri.
Lyndon Johnson was a Texan.
And Harry S Truman was from Missouri itself which is almost exclusively to the west of the Missouri. He was even from Lamar which is on the far western part of the state.
I thought of Truman, but Missouri itself isn't 'a state west of the Missouri,' it's a state bisected by the Missouri. So although Independence is west of the river, I decided it didn't count.
I have read that this ban on ex-felons has resulted in up to 30% of young black men being unable to vote in states like Alabama. As a tool for minority vote suppression it is undoubtedly one of the most effective.
Probably true, but I wonder if it's still having the effect that was intended now that support for the GOP (or at least for Trump) is so strongly correlated with lack of education.
Do you know how many Delaware Presidents they've been? Errr none. Indeed, there's never even been a Democratic President from a state West of the Missouri.
Lyndon Johnson was a Texan.
And Harry S Truman was from Missouri itself which is almost exclusively to the west of the Missouri. He was even from Lamar which is on the far western part of the state.
I thought of Truman, but Missouri itself isn't 'a state west of the Missouri,' it's a state bisected by the Missouri. So although Independence is west of the river, I decided it didn't count.
What I do find thought provoking about Robert's observation is no Democrat from California. Indeed the largest state in population is seriously underrepresented in Presidents with only Nixon having been born there and Reagan as a former governor. Maybe Harris will correct this.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
I have read that this ban on ex-felons has resulted in up to 30% of young black men being unable to vote in states like Alabama. As a tool for minority vote suppression it is undoubtedly one of the most effective.
Probably true, but I wonder if it's still having the effect that was intended now that support for the GOP (or at least for Trump) is so strongly correlated with lack of education.
looks like Martin Selmayr is toast if she gets in. If she doesn't, there is no alternative candidate at present likely to get support. Boris is not going to have anyone to bullshit.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
Boris is competent and has the confidence of his client? I beg to differ.
She doesn't drink, and has a fanatical work ethic, apparently sleeping in a room next to her office. She hates shopping, being described as a woman with more children than jackets by one colleague. She has 7 children, a medical degree and is fluent in several languages, including English from when she was a teenager in London.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
Avoiding Junker's incompetence, Selmayr's malevolence and Barnier's intransigence could be a help.
How many of them will bother to vote? Although Florida is still the most likely state to change from GOP to Dem in my opinion.
Here's an interesting way of looking at that question. In 2018, we saw midterm elections. Let's look at states which Trump won in 2016, but the Democrats won in 2018:
Arizona Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania West Virginia Wisconsin
Now, let's look at the winning Democrat's absolutel number of votes compared to what Trump got in 2016. You see, midterms have turnouts well down on Presidential years normally. So in the majority of cases, winning Senators in midterms get substantially fewer votes than the President got in their State two years earlier.
How did the Senators in six "flipped" states do:
Arizona -5% Michigan -3% Ohio -17% Pennsylvania -6% West Virginia -41% Wisconsin +5%
What's fascinating about this is that: (1) it tells you that Trump didn't reach a massive number of voters, Hillary turned them off. (2) Sherrod Brown in Ohio is not some magic Trump slayer, having got 17% fewer votes than Trump did in his State,
Indeed the real standout is Wisconsin, where the Dems won by a country mile despite having exactly the kind of candidate HYUFD would rate as no chance. (She's a woman, and worse a gay one. People in the rustbelt would never vote for someone liek that...)
Midterm election results give little guide to the next presidential election, ask Reagan, Clinton and Obama.
Being a woman and gay is not on its own enough to make you unelectable in the rustbelt if you are reasonably centrist, being a coastal left liberal elitist however is
You're right. Look at how centrist coastal liberal Kerry did in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Oh wait. He actually won three of those four states.
Kerry lost Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, North Carolina and even some states Hillary won like Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia and Colorado.
Kerry had the worst Electoral College result for a Democrat (prior to Hillary) since Dukakis in 1988, himself another elitist coastal liberal
There is no such thing as an elitist coastal liberal. It’s just another phrase you read somewhere like “diehard remainer” you liked the sound of and have decided to make your catchphrase.
To be fair, Kerry and about half a dozen other Brahmin would qualify as “elitist coastal liberals”
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
For a long time the typical state of our politics was the LibDems on between 15-20%, with most of the vote split between the large parties both averaging around 35-40%, with long periods with both Tory and Labour leads in this scenario.
So there is nothing intrinsic about the LibDems being back on around 20% that is to the disadvantage of Labour. This implies that the rest of the “minor party” vote has come reasonably evenly from ‘natural’ (or former) Tory and Labour supporters. The uptick of 5% or so in the Green Party vote likely comes mostly from Labour, meaning that the majority of the remaining 15-20% BXP vote is majority ex-Tory, but not all so.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
Boris is competent and has the confidence of his client? I beg to differ.
She doesn't drink, and has a fanatical work ethic, apparently sleeping in a room next to her office. She hates shopping, being described as a woman with more children than jackets by one colleague. She has 7 children, a medical degree and is fluent in several languages, including English from when she was a teenager in London.
Who says Boris also doesn’t have more children than jackets?
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
Avoiding Junker's incompetence, Selmayr's malevolence and Barnier's intransigence could be a help.
You can hardly say that Britain's Brexit ministers have been from the top of the intellectual tree, to be fair.
How many of them will bother to vote? Although Florida is still the most likely state to change from GOP to Dem in my opinion.
Here's an interesting way of looking at that question. In 2018, we saw midterm elections. Let's look at states which Trump won in 2016, but the Democrats won in 2018:
Arizona Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania West Virginia
How did the Senators in six "flipped" states do:
Arizona -5% Michigan -3% Ohio -17% Pennsylvania -6% West Virginia -41% Wisconsin +5%
What's fascinating about this is that: (1) it tells you that Trump didn't reach a massive number of voters, Hillary turned them off. (2) Sherrod Brown in Ohio is not some magic Trump slayer, having got 17% fewer votes than Trump did in his State,
Indeed the real standout is Wisconsin, where the Dems won by a country mile despite having exactly the kind of candidate HYUFD would rate as no chance. (She's a woman, and worse a gay one. People in the rustbelt would never vote for someone liek that...)
Midterm election results give little guide to the next presidential election, ask Reagan, Clinton and Obama.
Being a woman and gay is not on its own enough to make you unelectable in the rustbelt if you are reasonably centrist, being a coastal left liberal elitist however is
You're right. Look at how centrist coastal liberal Kerry did in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Oh wait. He actually won three of those four states.
Kerry lost Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, North Carolina and even some states Hillary won like Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia and Colorado.
Kerry had the worst Electoral College result for a Democrat (prior to Hillary) since Dukakis in 1988, himself another elitist coastal liberal
There is no such thing as an elitist coastal liberal. It’s just another phrase you read somewhere like “diehard remainer” you liked the sound of and have decided to make your catchphrase.
To be fair, Kerry and about half a dozen other Brahmin would qualify as “elitist coastal liberals”
Better than elite, coastal, corrupt racist*, though.
* I should qualify that, as it is equally possible that Trump is merely posing as a racist. The corruption is inbred.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
Boris is competent and has the confidence of his client? I beg to differ.
She doesn't drink, and has a fanatical work ethic, apparently sleeping in a room next to her office. She hates shopping, being described as a woman with more children than jackets by one colleague. She has 7 children, a medical degree and is fluent in several languages, including English from when she was a teenager in London.
From Junker to Von Der Leyen, alcoholism to abstinence. Well, its a start.
I don't pretend to be that knowledgeable about German politics but there does seem to be a consensus that she has been both incompetent and, perhaps, corrupt in her administration of the Defence Ministry. There are investigations about contracts for millions of Euros given to the usual suspects outwith any tendering process.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
None of this is good news for Britain. If something imaginative is to be done the EU will need a strong and able Commission president. That ain’t happening.
Depends if other EU leaders are happy to defend the President to the hilt, or if they will seek to use her weakness to take more control of things themselves. Also it might make a big difference that Meyer is not a product of the EU Parliament - I think that gave Juncker a lot of protection from all sides (the fact that he was the 'democratically elected' head of the commission).
In fact I wonder if that was part of the reason she was put forward.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
To be fair, I think we're well off without senior German politicians with European ambitions who have done a lot for the German Army.
From Junker to Von Der Leyen, alcoholism to abstinence. Well, its a start.
I don't pretend to be that knowledgeable about German politics but there does seem to be a consensus that she has been both incompetent and, perhaps, corrupt in her administration of the Defence Ministry. There are investigations about contracts for millions of Euros given to the usual suspects outwith any tendering process.
So she would be a sober, somewhat more honest politician than Juncker?
"A point which is getting lost is that a genuine 'No Outsiders' programme must ensure that it does not accidentally make 'Outsiders' of minorities with strongly held convictions which go against mainstream opinion. Progressives can sometimes give the impression that their benign tolerance extends to everyone who shares their worldview. Being open to all shades of opinion is difficult - as the extremist bigots show only too well. But what about quiet thoughtful people, religious or non-religious, who don't share every detail of the progressive moral code?"
You raise an interesting and important point. We must beware of creating a sort of illiberal liberalism whereby there can only be one received opinion on any topic.
But the answer surely is this: the No Outsiders programme is not seeking to stop people practising their religion or having a different view of morality and teaching it to their children. What it is seeking to do is teaching children something in addition to what they will learn from their parents etc. It is an addition not a substitute.
Minorities are entitled to their freedoms to think and believe what they like. They are entitled not to be bullied for thinking differently subject to the proviso that they cannot use that freedom to deny others rights which the law has given them. So their freedom also imposes obligations and the most important obligation is that they cannot use their freedom to bully others and make them feel unwanted in their turn. You cannot demand the right not to be bullied while bullying others. You cannot demand the right not to be made to feel an outsider while at the same time seeking to make another minority feel an outsider.
My objection to the Parkfield protestors is that they are vocal in demanding rights for themselves while at the same time seeking to deny rights to others. Just no.
The No Outsiders programme is not seeking to deny the parents the right to pass on their children. But it is informing the children that what their religion teaches is not the be all and end all of what they need to know about life, that there is more information out there which they also need to know. Some of the parents want to limit; the No Outsiders programme wants to enlarge.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
How many of them will bother to vote? Although Florida is still the most likely state to change from GOP to Dem in my opinion.
Here's an interesting way of looking at that question. In 2018, we saw midterm elections. Let's look at states which Trump won in 2016, but the Democrats won in 2018:
Arizona Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania West Virginia
How did the Senators in six "flipped" states do:
Arizona -5% Michigan -3% Ohio -17% Pennsylvania -6% West Virginia -41% Wisconsin +5%
What's fascinating about this is that: (1) it tells you that Trump didn't reach a massive number of voters, Hillary turned them off. (2) Sherrod Brown in Ohio is not some magic Trump slayer, having got 17% fewer votes than Trump did in his State,
Indeed the real standout is Wisconsin, where the Dems won by a country mile despite having exactly the kind of candidate HYUFD would rate as no chance. (She's a woman, and worse a gay one. People in the rustbelt would never vote for someone liek that...)
Midterm election results give little guide to the next presidential election, ask Reagan, Clinton and Obama.
Being a woman and gay is not on its own enough to make you unelectable in the rustbelt if you are reasonably centrist, being a coastal left liberal elitist however is
You're right. Look at how centrist coastal liberal Kerry did in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Oh wait. He actually won three of those four states.
Kerry lost Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, North Carolina and even some states Hillary won like Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia and Colorado.
Kerry had the worst Electoral College result for a Democrat (prior to Hillary) since Dukakis in 1988, himself another elitist coastal liberal
There is no such thing as an elitist coastal liberal. It’s just another phrase you read somewhere like “diehard remainer” you liked the sound of and have decided to make your catchphrase.
To be fair, Kerry and about half a dozen other Brahmin would qualify as “elitist coastal liberals”
Better than elite, coastal, corrupt racist*, though.
* I should qualify that, as it is equally possible that Trump is merely posing as a racist. The corruption is inbred.
You don't pose as a racist. If you are happy to denigrate people because of their ethnicity then a racist is what you are.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 but Kerry lost it in 2004
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
If they’re all fucking off overseas that would be splendid news.
looks like Martin Selmayr is toast if she gets in. If she doesn't, there is no alternative candidate at present likely to get support. Boris is not going to have anyone to bullshit.
Selmayr has apparently tendered his resignation conditional on vdL being confirmed by the EP today.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
Most of the Brexit Party vote is ex Tory but by no means all, indeed in solid Labour and 68% Leave Barnsley the Brexit Party won over 50% in the European Parliament elections.
In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd helped by Labour voters voting UKIP rather than for Ed Miliband's Labour however Labour regained the seat in 2017 as Corbyn Labour won some of that vote back
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
If they’re all fucking off overseas that would be splendid news.
They won't be able to soon. We'll be stuck with them and paying for them.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
Nah, @Viceroy just likes trolling. His view that Rhodes was just looking for lebensraum and therefore deserves to be on the £50 note are so wonderfully OTT that he can only be a spoof.
1. she is open to another extension 2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
Today’s vote is far from a formality.
“Von der Leyen is our weakest minister. That’s apparently enough to become Commission president,” said former European Parliament President Martin Schulz
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
If they’re all fucking off overseas that would be splendid news.
They won't be able to soon. We'll be stuck with them and paying for them.
Will Viceroy have to go back to where he came from? That would be a failure in negotiation too far.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
"A point which is getting lost is that a genuine 'No Outsiders' programme must ensure that it does not accidentally make 'Outsiders' of minorities with strongly held convictions which go against mainstream opinion. Progressives can sometimes give the impression that their benign tolerance extends to everyone who shares their worldview. Being open to all shades of opinion is difficult - as the extremist bigots show only too well. But what about quiet thoughtful people, religious or non-religious, who don't share every detail of the progressive moral code?"
You raise an interesting and important point. We must beware of creating a sort of illiberal liberalism whereby there can only be one received opinion on any topic.
But the answer surely is this: the No Outsiders programme is not seeking to stop people practising their religion or having a different view of morality and teaching it to their children. What it is seeking to do is teaching children something in addition to what they will learn from their parents etc. It is an addition not a substitute.
Minorities are entitled to their freedoms to think and believe what they like. They are entitled not to be bullied for thinking differently subject to the proviso that they cannot use that freedom to deny others rights which the law has given them. So their freedom also imposes obligations and the most important obligation is that they cannot use their freedom to bully others and make them feel unwanted in their turn. You cannot demand the right not to be bullied while bullying others. You cannot demand the right not to be made to feel an outsider while at the same time seeking to make another minority feel an outsider.
My objection to the Parkfield protestors is that they are vocal in demanding rights for themselves while at the same time seeking to deny rights to others. Just no.
The No Outsiders programme is not seeking to deny the parents the right to pass on their children. But it is informing the children that what their religion teaches is not the be all and end all of what they need to know about life, that there is more information out there which they also need to know. Some of the parents want to limit; the No Outsiders programme wants to enlarge.
Well said!
There are a lot of people (including me and my family) who would get it in the neck if either hard line Muslims or hard line progressives ruled the roost.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Trolling only really works if we think you might be serious
There is, an elitist coastal liberal is a left liberal from a wealthy coastal state like New York, Massachusetts or California ie the home states of Hillary, Kerry, Warren and Harris respectively
This is utter bullshit. Correlation (weak correlation at that) does not equal causation. New York is the home state of Trump, California of Reagan and Romney was Governor of Massachusetts. Bush, despite his homespun Texanness, is actually from Connecticut. As the Yale educated son of a president he was part of an elite - he just didn’t have the liberal bit. If Donald Trump is not an “elite,” then the term is entirely meaningless. It doesn’t really matter where you’re from so long as you can get the message out. Florida is a wealthy coastal state, as is Virginia, doubtless we will see Republican contenders from those States again.. And, while New York City is coastal, the rest of the State is effectively landlocked, unless you count the Great Lakes.
Obama came across as something of a professor, the epitome of an elitist, and he was a Harvard Law Grad. He would still have been elected if he had remained in Massachusetts after graduating. In any event Chicago has more in common with New York City than its midwest hinterland. Similarly, well over 65 million Americans voted for Hillary Clinton, which would make for a lot of “liberal elitists” across the country. The tragedy was vanishing small margins didn’t vote for her in three key states. But then, it’s always easier to invent figments like “liberal coastal elites” to explain the people who don’t agree with you.
With respect, ever since you suggested last week that the Irish-American lobby was concentrated almost exclusively in Boston so we needn’t worry about it with regard to the ROI/NI border issue, I’ve stopped taking anything you say about American politics seriously.
If you are a conservative or moderate from a coastal liberal state then it does not matter so much, however if you are a Democrat it almost certainly means you will be very liberal to have got through the primaries in the first place.
With respect, I could not care less what you think of me
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
Nah, @Viceroy just likes trolling. His view that Rhodes was just looking for lebensraum and therefore deserves to be on the £50 note are so wonderfully OTT that he can only be a spoof.
Mind you, it would be very funny to put Rhodes on the £50 note.
Joking aside, Rhodes was more of a grey hat than a black hat.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Trolling only really works if we think you might be serious
He is serious (definitely a he), but he's also thick, so it makes him uninteresting.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
Latest Emerson College Iowa poll this year Biden 53% Trump 47%, Sanders 51% Trump 49%, Trump 51% Warren 49%, Trump 54% Harris 46%
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
If they’re all fucking off overseas that would be splendid news.
They won't be able to soon. We'll be stuck with them and paying for them.
Will Viceroy have to go back to where he came from? That would be a failure in negotiation too far.
He'll be able to stay in the sun, turning his nose up at the foreign filth and revelling in his ignorance; it's those who have not yet boarded the plane south that we will be stuck with.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Trolling only really works if we think you might be serious
He is serious (definitely a he), but he's also thick, so it makes him uninteresting.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Trolling only really works if we think you might be serious
He is serious (definitely a he), but he's also thick, so it makes him uninteresting.
To be fair, Kerry and about half a dozen other Brahmin would qualify as “elitist coastal liberals”
I once went through airport security with my family at the same time as John Kerry. He could not crack a smile and seemed pissed off about our daughter taking a few seconds longer to go through the scanner than he thought necessary. Did not radiate charm.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
Most of the Brexit Party vote is ex Tory but by no means all, indeed in solid Labour and 68% Leave Barnsley the Brexit Party won over 50% in the European Parliament elections.
In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd helped by Labour voters voting UKIP rather than for Ed Miliband's Labour however Labour regained the seat in 2017 as Corbyn Labour won some of that vote back
Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
Nah, @Viceroy just likes trolling. His view that Rhodes was just looking for lebensraum and therefore deserves to be on the £50 note are so wonderfully OTT that he can only be a spoof.
Mind you, it would be very funny to put Rhodes on the £50 note.
Joking aside, Rhodes was more of a grey hat than a black hat.
You can make a case with Rhodes, as with many builders of the British empire, that they did more good than harm.
What you cannot do, at least not if you want me to take you seriously, is argue that they are great because they created Lebensraum for White Brits in Africa.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
If they’re all fucking off overseas that would be splendid news.
They won't be able to soon. We'll be stuck with them and paying for them.
Will Viceroy have to go back to where he came from? That would be a failure in negotiation too far.
He'll be able to stay in the sun, turning his nose up at the foreign filth and revelling in his ignorance; it's those who have not yet boarded the plane south that we will be stuck with.
Any ideas about his location in Spain, he’d stand out by a mile around here if he’s under 60😀
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
Most of the Brexit Party vote is ex Tory but by no means all, indeed in solid Labour and 68% Leave Barnsley the Brexit Party won over 50% in the European Parliament elections.
In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd helped by Labour voters voting UKIP rather than for Ed Miliband's Labour however Labour regained the seat in 2017 as Corbyn Labour won some of that vote back
Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.
Unlike Brexit party dilettanti, once Tory Remainers are gone, they're gone.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
Very soon you wont have to keep digging out that receding poll, as the great Bozo will be a reality rather than hypothetical. Then we can all see how big is his honeymoon bounce, and how long it lasts.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
If you havnt been voting for 30 years, but voted in 16 and 17 can you still be listed as non voter?
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
Latest Emerson College Iowa poll this year Biden 53% Trump 47%, Sanders 51% Trump 49%, Trump 51% Warren 49%, Trump 54% Harris 46%
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Trolling only really works if we think you might be serious
He is serious (definitely a he), but he's also thick, so it makes him uninteresting.
A crude attempt to shift the window of acceptable debate rightward. Probably he is several people working round the clock from a basement somewhere in the foothills of the Urals.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
Latest Emerson College Iowa poll this year Biden 53% Trump 47%, Sanders 51% Trump 49%, Trump 51% Warren 49%, Trump 54% Harris 46%
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
Very soon you wont have to keep digging out that receding poll, as the great Bozo will be a reality rather than hypothetical. Then we can all see how big is his honeymoon bounce, and how long it lasts.
Absolutely agree. The key word is hypothetical. By end of next week the government is a different one, a lot of very capable moderates on the back benches, the risk being a PM and cabinet gaff prone.
The Dems need to pick the nominee that can win the more rust belt states in the north and not who can rack up huge wins in states they would win anyway .
Like him or not Biden is who they should pick . The Dems seem in danger of picking the latter .
Indeed you could stick a Dem rosette on bubbles the chimp and it would win all the normal Dem states , just as you could do the same with the GOP in their solid states.
Hillary Clinton lost because instead of going for the win she wanted to trounce Trump spending time campaigning in normal red states like Georgia .
I’m curious about those who are claiming that the only chance of the Dems winning is to nominate someone like Biden. How do they explain Obama’s two easy victories in 2008 and 2012? Certainly wasn’t due to having Joe on the ticket.
I personally don’t see how Trump is going to hang onto PA, WI or MI in 2020 given the midterm results.
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
Very soon you wont have to keep digging out that receding poll, as the great Bozo will be a reality rather than hypothetical. Then we can all see how big is his honeymoon bounce, and how long it lasts.
Absolutely agree. The key word is hypothetical. By end of next week the government is a different one, a lot of very capable moderates on the back benches, the risk being a PM and cabinet gaff prone.
I'd still think some sort of bounce, mostly at the expense of the BXP, is likely during the summer, as people project all sorts of hopes and expectations onto Bozo's hollow optimism. Things get interesting when he starts to get found out, in the autumn.
By a long shot, the best political leaders in the world now heading the top offices are Trump, Putin, Bolsanaro, Orban, Morrison and Salvini. Long may it continue, hopefully with the likes of Le Pen joining in soon.
The hard left of Macron, Merkel, Trudeau etc are still losing this fight.
Even I wouldn't go so far as to call Macron and Trudeau hard left though and certainly not Merkel, elitist liberals maybe but certainly not Corbynite
"Even" you? What, moderate centrist mainstream Conservative like yourself?
In the current incarnation of the Tory party, HYUFD is indeed a mainstream centrist.
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
Nah, @Viceroy just likes trolling. His view that Rhodes was just looking for lebensraum and therefore deserves to be on the £50 note are so wonderfully OTT that he can only be a spoof.
Mind you, it would be very funny to put Rhodes on the £50 note.
Joking aside, Rhodes was more of a grey hat than a black hat.
You can make a case with Rhodes, as with many builders of the British empire, that they did more good than harm.
What you cannot do, at least not if you want me to take you seriously, is argue that they are great because they created Lebensraum for White Brits in Africa.
Not least because they didn't.
North America and Australasia would be better examples of that.
Plus what the Spanish and Portugese did in much of Latin America.
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
Latest Emerson College Iowa poll this year Biden 53% Trump 47%, Sanders 51% Trump 49%, Trump 51% Warren 49%, Trump 54% Harris 46%
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
Latest Emerson College Iowa poll this year Biden 53% Trump 47%, Sanders 51% Trump 49%, Trump 51% Warren 49%, Trump 54% Harris 46%
Percentage of each party’s VI comprised of non-voters last election: Greens 15.9% Plaid Cymru 13.3% Lib Dems 8.9% SNP 8.3% Labour 7.8% Brexit Party 6.9% Conservatives 4.5%
We know that non-voters last time are usually non-voters next time too. Or is it just that the parties with more non-voters just have a younger demographic, and consequently more first-time voters?
Is this significant? Could be if four parties are about even Stevens.
Also fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
Most of the Brexit Party vote is ex Tory but by no means all, indeed in solid Labour and 68% Leave Barnsley the Brexit Party won over 50% in the European Parliament elections.
In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd helped by Labour voters voting UKIP rather than for Ed Miliband's Labour however Labour regained the seat in 2017 as Corbyn Labour won some of that vote back
Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.
This is the a good point HY. it’s not just some great remain conspiracy against Boris, but genuine Conservatives genuinely concerned for what will happen to their party. We know you as a sharp intelligent guy, HY, surely you must be having some doubts after last week?
Former felons are disproportionately African American.
This is true and I'm not sure what the net effect is here but apparently: 1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic 2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
I think it's a wash. Right now, I'd expect Trump to carry each of Florida, Iowa, and Ohio in 2020. That still leaves a Democratic path to victory, but it's a narrow one.
Iowa has been hammered by the trade war, and the democrats did better in the congressional elections there than in 2006 (ie at the height of Bush unpopularity), so I make that a likelier democrat pickup than some more obvious states.
That is true, but it is something of an anomaly, being a white, rural State, that is not solidly Republican. Sooner or later, it must go solidly Red.
I disagree: if you look at the grouping Trump has lost most favourability with, it's evangelical Christians. What is Iowa full of? Evangelical Christians.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
Latest Emerson College Iowa poll this year Biden 53% Trump 47%, Sanders 51% Trump 49%, Trump 51% Warren 49%, Trump 54% Harris 46%
You can bet they have plenty of resources for finding out who leaked a toffs e-mails, but for stabbings , shootings , etc they are all at the doughnut stand and shorthanded.
Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.
Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.
No need to get clever, just hammer away at the obvious blunders she's already made and will continue to make, like putting her hand up to wanting to cancel everybody's private health insurance.
The key question, however, is what she would do if more time is required for no particularly good reason. Because that is by far the most likely scenario.
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
So 57% of Brexit Party voters ie well over half are ex Tory voters, without winning those voters back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
If you take your most rosy scenario and obliterate the BXP and return its voters to the other parties in those proportions, and feed the result into Flavible, the Tories get largest party but not a majority. Indeed the result isn't that far from the current Commons except with 20 or so more LibDems.
The Tories will not obliterate the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% even with Boris Tory leader, and still do particularly well in strong Labour Leave seats.
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
Very soon you wont have to keep digging out that receding poll, as the great Bozo will be a reality rather than hypothetical. Then we can all see how big is his honeymoon bounce, and how long it lasts.
Absolutely agree. The key word is hypothetical. By end of next week the government is a different one, a lot of very capable moderates on the back benches, the risk being a PM and cabinet gaff prone.
I'd still think some sort of bounce, mostly at the expense of the BXP, is likely during the summer, as people project all sorts of hopes and expectations onto Bozo's hollow optimism. Things get interesting when he starts to get found out, in the autumn.
Good ship optimism meets horrible old reality of icebergs, poll ratings at bottom of sea. Totally agree with you.
But maybe not even much of a bounce, Farage can go on attack too and Boris has one heck of a back story. He probably has lock ups all over London to keep his baggage in, brexit party can crow bar open at 4am
The key question, however, is what she would do if more time is required for no particularly good reason. Because that is by far the most likely scenario.
Anything can be construed into a good reason if you try hard enough!
Realistically they will continue to extend because the longer this goes on the less likely it is that Brexit ever happens.
You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....
Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
The key question, however, is what she would do if more time is required for no particularly good reason. Because that is by far the most likely scenario.
Anything can be construed into a good reason if you try hard enough!
Realistically they will continue to extend because the longer this goes on the less likely it is that Brexit ever happens.
Boris heading over and fwaffing a bit about positivity will be adequate good reason.
Well indeed, Macron vetoes what she thinks is irrelevant as extension needs all 27 to agree.
Not of course Boris would ask for an extension anyway as he knows not only would he lose the party it would likely lead to PM Farage unless he had already won a majority by that point and could pass the Withdrawal Agreement with just a short tidying up extension
The Dems need to pick the nominee that can win the more rust belt states in the north and not who can rack up huge wins in states they would win anyway .
Like him or not Biden is who they should pick . The Dems seem in danger of picking the latter .
Indeed you could stick a Dem rosette on bubbles the chimp and it would win all the normal Dem states , just as you could do the same with the GOP in their solid states.
Hillary Clinton lost because instead of going for the win she wanted to trounce Trump spending time campaigning in normal red states like Georgia .
I’m curious about those who are claiming that the only chance of the Dems winning is to nominate someone like Biden. How do they explain Obama’s two easy victories in 2008 and 2012? Certainly wasn’t due to having Joe on the ticket.
I personally don’t see how Trump is going to hang onto PA, WI or MI in 2020 given the midterm results.
Obama was not running against a sitting President, most Presidents are re elected if you don't pick the candidate with the broadest appeal you make your task even more difficult and in 2008 the economy had crashed and in 2012 Romney lacked the motivated base and appeal in the swing states of Trump
You can imagine my surprise that Wes's politically motivated attack was false, almost as if he regularly attacks his political opponents with BS....
Whilst the rest of the world’s getting on with it, you seem to be consumed with your own ugly civil war Jez! That’s not a good voter attracting look is it?
Comments
1. she is open to another extension
2. there will be no renegotiation of the WA
It’ll be fun watching her bash Boris.
1) White ex-cons will tend to be disproportionately low-education and male, and low-education white men are an exceptionally Trumpy demographic
2) Ex-cons tend not to vote that much in any case
There's some detail here:
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida
I'd be surprised. The biggest chance would seem to be if the Democrats think it's in the bag and jump so far left that the floating centre would either sit on its collective hands or go for Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/18/mass-incarceration-black-americans-higher-rates-disparities-report
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1151006670144843776?s=19
looks like Martin Selmayr is toast if she gets in. If she doesn't, there is no alternative candidate at present likely to get support. Boris is not going to have anyone to bullshit.
Obama - Hawaii
She doesn't seem to have done much for the German Army.
She doesn't drink, and has a fanatical work ethic, apparently sleeping in a room next to her office. She hates shopping, being described as a woman with more children than jackets by one colleague. She has 7 children, a medical degree and is fluent in several languages, including English from when she was a teenager in London.
So there is nothing intrinsic about the LibDems being back on around 20% that is to the disadvantage of Labour. This implies that the rest of the “minor party” vote has come reasonably evenly from ‘natural’ (or former) Tory and Labour supporters. The uptick of 5% or so in the Green Party vote likely comes mostly from Labour, meaning that the majority of the remaining 15-20% BXP vote is majority ex-Tory, but not all so.
* I should qualify that, as it is equally possible that Trump is merely posing as a racist.
The corruption is inbred.
Agreed. In any negotiation things go better when the person on the other side is competent and has the confidence of his or her client. Mind you she will have to go some to be less competent than Junker.
Boris is competent and has the confidence of his client? I beg to differ.
She doesn't drink, and has a fanatical work ethic, apparently sleeping in a room next to her office. She hates shopping, being described as a woman with more children than jackets by one colleague. She has 7 children, a medical degree and is fluent in several languages, including English from when she was a teenager in London.
From Junker to Von Der Leyen, alcoholism to abstinence. Well, its a start.
I don't pretend to be that knowledgeable about German politics but there does seem to be a consensus that she has been both incompetent and, perhaps, corrupt in her administration of the Defence Ministry. There are investigations about contracts for millions of Euros given to the usual suspects outwith any tendering process.
In fact I wonder if that was part of the reason she was put forward.
https://twitter.com/SnoozeInBrief/status/1150870064930926592?s=20
Viceroy is outstanding as an example of where the party is heading, so ‘moderate’ is probably true in at least one sense, too.
Which group of Americans has been most hit by the trade war? Farmers. What is Iowa full of? Farmers.
Although Iowa has voted for both Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates, votes at the Congressional level have been heavily Republican until 2018. Even in the nadir of 2006, before Obama swept in, the Republicans picked up two Congressional districts, and won the majority of votes. Not in 2018: the Republicans ended up losing a third of their absolute votes, and ended up with just a single Representative.
In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd helped by Labour voters voting UKIP rather than for Ed Miliband's Labour however Labour regained the seat in 2017 as Corbyn Labour won some of that vote back
With respect, I could not care less what you think of me
Joking aside, Rhodes was more of a grey hat than a black hat.
http://emersonpolling.com/2019/03/24/iowa-2020-biden-and-sanders-neck-and-neck-in-democratic-field-mayor-pete-jumps-to-double-digits/
However Boris at least wins back many Brexit Party Tory voters and cuts them back to enable a Tory majority, unlike May or Hunt
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
What you cannot do, at least not if you want me to take you seriously, is argue that they are great because they created Lebensraum for White Brits in Africa.
I personally don’t see how Trump is going to hang onto PA, WI or MI in 2020 given the midterm results.
North America and Australasia would be better examples of that.
Plus what the Spanish and Portugese did in much of Latin America.
In a way that doesn’t lose him Florida?
@HYUFD “but Macron...”
Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. But his lack of any real direction or belief may yet prove an asset, because he is completely unpredictable.
Many in Brussels believe he is capable of any move, even backtracking and shelving Brexit if he thinks it could be turned to his personal advantage. After all, before becoming one of the leading lights in the leave campaign, he was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU. A pragmatic buffoon, in other words, might be better than a fanatic. Watch out though: Johnson is also capable of taking Britain over the cliff. It would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think it amusing.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/boris-johnson-english-ruling-class-eurosceptic
Hmmmm, no, that pun doesn't really work. He's no brighter than Bart or even Lionel Hutz.
But maybe not even much of a bounce, Farage can go on attack too and Boris has one heck of a back story. He probably has lock ups all over London to keep his baggage in, brexit party can crow bar open at 4am
At least she passes the Leadsome test !
Realistically they will continue to extend because the longer this goes on the less likely it is that Brexit ever happens.
Not of course Boris would ask for an extension anyway as he knows not only would he lose the party it would likely lead to PM Farage unless he had already won a majority by that point and could pass the Withdrawal Agreement with just a short tidying up extension
http://www.twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1150688574175666177
But hey, tribalists don't let facts get in the way of their supporters, do they?