Boris can't be accused of exciting exagerrated expectations, can he? He only has to avoid accidentally blowing up the Commons to be seen as better than expected.
Personally I think he'll get the WA, heavily disguised by rhetoric, through, and that will stand him in good steady with the public for a bit. But I also think hubris will strike and he'll then call an election, which will turn out just like 2017.
May still stayed in power after 2017 if Boris passed the Withdrawal Agreement and got a 2017 style result that would be quite an achievement.
However I still think Boris would win a majority, he is a better campaigner than May and would not make gaffes like the dementia 6
You say Boris would not make gaffes: we are talking about BORIS JOHNSON here!
He makes gaffes every time he opens his mouth, which probably explains his reticence at debates, interviews and the like.
Boris can't be accused of exciting exagerrated expectations, can he? He only has to avoid accidentally blowing up the Commons to be seen as better than expected.
Personally I think he'll get the WA, heavily disguised by rhetoric, through, and that will stand him in good steady with the public for a bit. But I also think hubris will strike and he'll then call an election, which will turn out just like 2017.
How do you reckon he will get the WA through? Decent wodge of Labour MPs swing behind it?
I made the comment yesterday that 26 labour mps are already on record as supporting it, plus Stephen Kinnock made demands to Corbyn to do so this week, plus the fact that mps in both main parties must be sick to death of the issue and see in passing the WDA they can move on to a domestic agenda
I really do think this is Boris only chance of success. Anything else will fail
Boris is inching closer to the plan proposed here which is to massively extend May's transition period. This punts the backstop into the long grass for the ERG, allows plenty of time to spaff some money on some geeks produce a technical solution for the Irish border, looks BINO-ish for the Remainers and gets us out on time for the Soft Brexiteers.
On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
You miss the point. This isn't about Darroch it's about Johnson. He failed to give unequivocal support to a senior civil servant when any second rate MP let alone a former Foreign Secretary would have known that he should have done. His behaviour was pusillanimous and unfitting of a future PM.
(Not s bad as having a fight with his slapper in the early hours but he seems to have got away with that one)
Wrong. Darroch as a true diplomat should have resigned immediately once the leaks were out. If Boris's views or those of ANY other politician were influential in his decision to stay or go then it would reflect badly on Darroch. The person who deserves opprobrium is the leaker. I don't care for Boris and his remarks were pathetic but either way Darroch had to go once his position was compromised by the leaker. Your hatred of Boris blinds you to the issue in this case. Quel surprise!
Listen to Malcolm Rifkin on the subject. A politician from an age when they had standards. He says the blame goes three ways. 1. The Leaker 2. The President of the United States 3. Boris Johnson. Having been a Foreign Secretary and a parliamentarian for decades I think he's worth listening to. On Radio 5 now. As an aside apparently Darroch -who no one on here had even heard of-was one of our most outstanding diplomats.
The Malcolm Rifkind who left parliament in disgrace ?
Mr. eek, debatable. I'd say the error was inexplicably not having a definition of leaving, so it was the EU versus not the EU rather than (say) EEA membership, or an FTA or suchlike.
The reason we did not, and could not, have a definition of leaving is that it was government policy to remain. Had the government been in favour of leave, then they would have had a plan for it.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
Cameron by not having a second referendum on the final deal really, really, really screwed the Tory party for ever.
The entertaining bit is that history will regard the following (last) 2 Tory PMs as worse than him...
Cameron’s victory at IndyRef1 made him arrogant. He failed to understand that the No victory was nothing to do with him at all. He did not possess special powers and he walked right into the Bastards’ trap.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
Cameron by not having a second referendum on the final deal really, really, really screwed the Tory party for ever.
The entertaining bit is that history will regard the following (last) 2 Tory PMs as worse than him...
Cameron’s victory at IndyRef1 made him arrogant. He failed to understand that the No victory was nothing to do with him at all. He did not possess special powers and he walked right into the Bastards’ trap.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
Tories voted over 90% for the Union in 2014 but only 40% for Remain in 2016.
Cameron had his voters united behind him in 2014 but not in 2016, Labour saw its vote split in both referendums
Mr. eek, debatable. I'd say the error was inexplicably not having a definition of leaving, so it was the EU versus not the EU rather than (say) EEA membership, or an FTA or suchlike.
The reason we did not, and could not, have a definition of leaving is that it was government policy to remain. Had the government been in favour of leave, then they would have had a plan for it.
Which was why he should have added a second referendum were Leave to win to confirm the decision...
The fact he was, as StuartDickson states, too arrogant to think through and plan all possible consequences of the vote is something that should haunt him forever...
Mr. eek, debatable. I'd say the error was inexplicably not having a definition of leaving, so it was the EU versus not the EU rather than (say) EEA membership, or an FTA or suchlike.
The reason we did not, and could not, have a definition of leaving is that it was government policy to remain. Had the government been in favour of leave, then they would have had a plan for it.
Which is why promising the referendum was bonkers. If The Bastards wanted a Brexit referendum they should have been forced to win a GE first and present their plan in a government white paper.
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
You'd be so much happier if we Northern Monkeys would just stop voting and let suave and sophisticated Europeans make our decisions for us wouldn't you?
the positive thing all of this of course is that Boris is not one who cares too much to honour promises
or truth in either verbal or written version. Heck he's even been sacked for doing so and came up smelling of roses (well with a column in the Telegraph that pays very well)...
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
The site is composed of people who study and understand politics in depth.
Therefore, they can all see that BoJo is an idiot.
There was similar unanimity over Corbyn. In many ways he's been a worse disaster than we expected because he hasn't been an electoral calamity and Labour are consequently stuck with him. But it's hard to see Boris being anything other than the most pathetically inadequate party leader since the Marquess of Granby.
Boris is an election winner. That is why the Conservative membership and MPs will vote for him.
Exactly, if diehard Remainers want to vote LD, vote LD, don't try and change the Tory Party into the LDs
I agree, you stick to your opinion. On Boris , I agree with you.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
You miss the point. This isn't about Darroch it's about Johnson. He failed to give unequivocal support to a senior civil servant when any second rate MP let alone a former Foreign Secretary would have known that he should have done. His behaviour was pusillanimous and unfitting of a future PM.
(Not s bad as having a fight with his slapper in the early hours but he seems to have got away with that one)
Wrong. Darroch as a true diplomat should have resigned immediately once the leaks were out. If Boris's views or those of ANY other politician were influential in his decision to stay or go then it would reflect badly on Darroch. The person who deserves opprobrium is the leaker. I don't care for Boris and his remarks were pathetic but either way Darroch had to go once his position was compromised by the leaker. Your hatred of Boris blinds you to the issue in this case. Quel surprise!
Listen to Malcolm Rifkin on the subject. A politician from an age when they had standards. He says the blame goes three ways. 1. The Leaker 2. The President of the United States 3. Boris Johnson. Having been a Foreign Secretary and a parliamentarian for decades I think he's worth listening to. On Radio 5 now. As an aside apparently Darroch -who no one on here had even heard of-was one of our most outstanding diplomats.
The Malcolm Rifkind who left parliament in disgrace ?
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
Cameron by not having a second referendum on the final deal really, really, really screwed the Tory party for ever.
The entertaining bit is that history will regard the following (last) 2 Tory PMs as worse than him...
Cameron’s victory at IndyRef1 made him arrogant. He failed to understand that the No victory was nothing to do with him at all. He did not possess special powers and he walked right into the Bastards’ trap.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
As I remember you were certain that Scotland was going to vote for independence.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
Boris can only get the Withdrawal Agreement through with a Tory majority by early autumn, without that he has to go for No Deal on October 31st otherwise the Brexit Party will destroy the Tories and Farage could well end up PM instead
Even with a Conservative majority an election could make it harder to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Boris would risk seeing moderate MPs, like Boles and Clarke, who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, replaced by new MPs with an ideological fixation on no deal.
Also, to win the election he would have to show a lot of no deal leg, which would still give the ERG permission to vote against and hang-on for no deal on October 31st.
I frequently admit to being wrong, but I don't see any way for Boris to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
The Withdrawal Agreement lost by 58 votes at MV3, if Boris gets a Tory majority of about 30 to 50 and removes the temporary Customs Union for GB even if ERG hardliners and the DUP remain opposed the vast majority of Tory MPs will back it with maybe 10 to 15 Labour MPs and it will pass
Mr. Roger, patronising people who disagree with you doesn't win a referendum. As was discovered recently.
If someone said to me that they'd like me to pilot 400 passengers and it was obvious I'd never flown a plane before but they said don't worry give it a go and we crashed I don't think it would be partronising to ask whether I was a fit person to have been in the cockpit.
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
So you best response is a poll from before Boris throw the Foreign Office under a bus and he was caught out by Andrew Neil..
I suppose we should be thankful the poll is a working week old rather than a month old but things may have changed since then. Heck the lack of support for Boris on this site seems to have dipped to 1 single poster...
I don't agree with HYUFD's opinions or certainty of what Boris will do, and I don't have a vote cancelling my membership of the party due to my distate of May's authoritarinism. Boris is a more liberal Conservative like Cameron which I would happily support. So too is Hunt, so win/win as far as that is concerned.
However if I did have a membership vote I would have voted for Boris, like I voted for Cameron 14 years ago.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Yes but Mr Dickson's claim of promising No Deal is garbage. He has done no such thing.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
Given that we all accept that delegation is the name of the game who is going to be in this cabinet?
There has to be a major clear out of the no marks and drones that May favoured. Goodbye and good riddance to the likes of Hammond, Liddington, Grayling (please!!) and many others.
Boris should try hard to bring Stewart in but I fear that is impossible. He must keep Gove. Relations with Hunt have been sharper than expected in this campaign but he will be important. The Saj probably remains in post. I think Rudd has something to offer yet but there will be an expectation of promotions for committed leavers. Sifting through the asylum known as the ERG for the vaguely house trained and marginally competent is not a job for the faint of heart.
Chief Secretary for Mogg perhaps.
Jacob Rees-Mogg cannot even be doorman at the Treasury while running his own hedge fund.
Historically no, but if this lot are prepared to implement a coup and prorogue the sovereign body of the UK, then why give a toss about a conflict of interest.
Mr. Roger, we're talking about an electorate making a democratic decision, not a random member of the public being asked to perform a highly skilled operation for which they have neither skills nor qualification.
There would've been no desire for said referendum had the 'qualified' political class not integrated the nation far more into the EU than the electorate wanted, without ever consulting said electorate.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Dickson, I think you put too much stock in a Borisian promise.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
You'd be so much happier if we Northern Monkeys would just stop voting and let suave and sophisticated Europeans make our decisions for us wouldn't you?
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
Boris can only get the Withdrawal Agreement through with a Tory majority by early autumn, without that he has to go for No Deal on October 31st otherwise the Brexit Party will destroy the Tories and Farage could well end up PM instead
Even with a Conservative majority an election could make it harder to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Boris would risk seeing moderate MPs, like Boles and Clarke, who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, replaced by new MPs with an ideological fixation on no deal.
Also, to win the election he would have to show a lot of no deal leg, which would still give the ERG permission to vote against and hang-on for no deal on October 31st.
I frequently admit to being wrong, but I don't see any way for Boris to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
The Withdrawal Agreement lost by 58 votes at MV3, if Boris gets a Tory majority of about 30 to 50 and removes the temporary Customs Union for GB even if ERG hardliners and the DUP remain opposed the vast majority of Tory MPs will back it with maybe 10 to 15 Labour MPs and it will pass
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
Cameron by not having a second referendum on the final deal really, really, really screwed the Tory party for ever.
The entertaining bit is that history will regard the following (last) 2 Tory PMs as worse than him...
Cameron’s victory at IndyRef1 made him arrogant. He failed to understand that the No victory was nothing to do with him at all. He did not possess special powers and he walked right into the Bastards’ trap.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
Sounds like you've no idea why you lost indyref1 if you think Cameron thought that he had anything to do with it.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois
Diehard is a remarkably strange choice of word to be used in almost every post. Boris will not be impressed with such a limited and blunt vocabulary, he will be looking for more creativity and variety in his future candidates.
You want an EEA Brexit, most Leave voters want a Brexit that leaves the EU, the Single Market and Customs Union and enables us to regain sovereignty, control of our borders and do our own trade deals exactly as the Leave campaign promised.
If the only Brexit you will accept is one that in many respects is not really leaving at all you should not have voted to Leave in the first place
Without going around the same houses again, for me when the Referendum Ballot Paper asked if we should leave the "European Union" I interpreted that as leaving the European Union. As the European Economic Area is not the European Union, and the European Customs Union is not the European Union, it seems off that "not leaving at all" has become the way that you define what we were asked.
As seems obvious, the basic problem is that so may people haven't a clue what "European Union" actually is...
Indeed. I suspect that the proportion of people who know that the European Court of Human Rights, demonized by the tabloids and politicians looking to deflect blame, has absolutely no connection to the European Union, is comfortably below 20%.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
Mr. HYUFD, I'd take rationality over faith, and vote for someone who isn't a proven incompetent, to be honest.
All very well but Hunt cannot win a Tory majority which means he cannot pass the Withdrawal Agreement which means he will extend again which means the Brexit Party wipes out the Tories at the next general election
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
Do you think your typical Labour MP is going to vote for any deal from Boris.
Labour leave constituency MPs don't need to. If they so desire they can find enough No Deal only constituents to legitimately claim they couldn't vote for a Deal.
So it does require Boris to get the ERG to vote for a deal otherwise we will crash out on No Deal and Boris and the Tory party will 100% own however we end up.
I suspect it will be a grade A mess but the ERG think things will be fine...
Boris can't be accused of exciting exagerrated expectations, can he? He only has to avoid accidentally blowing up the Commons to be seen as better than expected.
Personally I think he'll get the WA, heavily disguised by rhetoric, through, and that will stand him in good steady with the public for a bit. But I also think hubris will strike and he'll then call an election, which will turn out just like 2017.
How do you reckon he will get the WA through? Decent wodge of Labour MPs swing behind it?
I made the comment yesterday that 26 labour mps are already on record as supporting it, plus Stephen Kinnock made demands to Corbyn to do so this week, plus the fact that mps in both main parties must be sick to death of the issue and see in passing the WDA they can move on to a domestic agenda
I really do think this is Boris only chance of success. Anything else will fail
the WDA only moves things to the second stage - if anyone thinks us leaving resolves Brexit once and for all they are in for a mighty surprise...
For Boris to pass the WDA he will need to persuade more Lab MPs than he loses over the backstop. Also to have a Customs Union or more to be part of the PD. I can't see it myself.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois
Diehard is a remarkably strange choice of word to be used in almost every post. Boris will not be impressed with such a limited and blunt vocabulary, he will be looking for more creativity and variety in his future candidates.
He will be looking for a clear message and as any marketer knows you have a clear message and you stick to it
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
Nobody likes being played.
Nobody is being played, except HYUFD's sense of certainty. Boris won't get a majority as I highly doubt there will be an election before Brexit - and if there is if Boris doesn't pledge a hard Brexit then the Brexit Party won't stand down.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois
Diehard is a remarkably strange choice of word to be used in almost every post. Boris will not be impressed with such a limited and blunt vocabulary, he will be looking for more creativity and variety in his future candidates.
He will be looking for a clear message and as any marketer knows you have a clear message and you stick to it
Is this the same Boris we are talking about! Clear? Stick to the message? We live on different on planets.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
Boris can't be accused of exciting exagerrated expectations, can he? He only has to avoid accidentally blowing up the Commons to be seen as better than expected.
Personally I think he'll get the WA, heavily disguised by rhetoric, through, and that will stand him in good steady with the public for a bit. But I also think hubris will strike and he'll then call an election, which will turn out just like 2017.
How do you reckon he will get the WA through? Decent wodge of Labour MPs swing behind it?
I made the comment yesterday that 26 labour mps are already on record as supporting it, plus Stephen Kinnock made demands to Corbyn to do so this week, plus the fact that mps in both main parties must be sick to death of the issue and see in passing the WDA they can move on to a domestic agenda
I really do think this is Boris only chance of success. Anything else will fail
the WDA only moves things to the second stage - if anyone thinks us leaving resolves Brexit once and for all they are in for a mighty surprise...
For Boris to pass the WDA he will need to persuade more Lab MPs than he loses over the backstop. Also to have a Customs Union or more to be part of the PD. I can't see it myself.
For Boris to pass the WDA he will need a Tory overall majority.
He will never persuade enough Labour MPs to vote for it to overcome the 58 vote defeat the Withdrawal Agreement suffered at MV3, only more Tory MPs can overcome that deficit
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So your pitch to disaffected Tory voters is:
To Remainers: Fuck off and vote Lib Dem To Hard Brexiteers: Vote for us so we can ignore you
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
Nobody likes being played.
Nobody is being played, except HYUFD's sense of certainty. Boris won't get a majority as I highly doubt there will be an election before Brexit - and if there is if Boris doesn't pledge a hard Brexit then the Brexit Party won't stand down.
Boris can get to 32% and a majority even with the Brexit Party still on 14%.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnative
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
Nobody likes being played.
Nobody is being played, except HYUFD's sense of certainty. Boris won't get a majority as I highly doubt there will be an election before Brexit - and if there is if Boris doesn't pledge a hard Brexit then the Brexit Party won't stand down.
Boris can get to 32% and a majority even with the Brexit Party still on 14%.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
You want an EEA Brexit, most Leave voters want a Brexit that leaves the EU, the Single Market and Customs Union and enables us to regain sovereignty, control of our borders and do our own trade deals exactly as the Leave campaign promised.
If the only Brexit you will accept is one that in many respects is not really leaving at all you should not have voted to Leave in the first place
You (and others) are conflating what the situation is now with what the situation was in 2016. I've always been opposed to the Single Market and Freedom of Movement but that's about it - beyond that, I'd welcome any economic relationship with the EU which works well for both sides.
Back in 2016, there was plenty of comment about how "easy" it would be to come to a Deal with the EU and leave the political structures. I accept I did not anticipate issues around the NI border (how many did?).
We were where we were and we are where we are - the pro-Johnson line suggests all those who voted LEAVE in 2016 want us to leave and that result must be respected and enacted.
I don't accept that - I wouldn't vote to LEAVE now knowing where we are now but hindsight's a wonderful thing.
I've come to the view we now need a second vote to take into account the consequences and changes since 2016 - Remain, May's Deal or Leave without a Deal. We are more informed, we know more, some of the misconceptions of 2016 have bee laid bare (on both sides) so let's ask the question again.
The alternative is to treat the mandate like an election mandate - enact the decision made in 2016 but ask every five years if we wish to stay out or rejoin.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
Presumably someone who you categorise as a "Deal or No Deal" voter is expecting concessions from the EU, otherwise they'll support No Deal, so in the absence of concessions the two groups merge into one.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
Nobody likes being played.
The ERG knows Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at Meaningful Vote 3, if Steve Baker refused to stand on a No Deal ticket tough, they always knew Boris' voting record when they backed him
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
Nobody likes being played.
Nobody is being played, except HYUFD's sense of certainty. Boris won't get a majority as I highly doubt there will be an election before Brexit - and if there is if Boris doesn't pledge a hard Brexit then the Brexit Party won't stand down.
Boris can get to 32% and a majority even with the Brexit Party still on 14%.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnative
Brexit doesn't have to be delivered. The Tory party doesn't have to survive.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
Chukka Umuna is very good this morning. Labour were very unlucky when he walked away at the start of their leadership campaign.
There's a growing view in the LDs he is a real asset potentially and on the assumption he can remain as an MP after the next GE I expect he will get a senior position in the LD team.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
Presumably someone who you categorise as a "Deal or No Deal" voter is expecting concessions from the EU, otherwise they'll support No Deal, so in the absence of concessions the two groups merge into one.
They want the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, which Boris will do, other than tgat they want Brexit delivered.
If you want Brexit delivered Deal or No Deal you will vote for a Boris led Tory Party, if you want Brexit delivered only with No Deal you will still vote Brexit Party.
As shown Boris can get the Tories to 32% and a majority even with the Brexit Party still on 14%
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
But in your scenario he'll have won the majority by promising "Deal or No Deal" which is an ultimatum to the EU. How can he immediately turn around and try to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement while retaining the support of his MPs and voters?
You want an EEA Brexit, most Leave voters want a Brexit that leaves the EU, the Single Market and Customs Union and enables us to regain sovereignty, control of our borders and do our own trade deals exactly as the Leave campaign promised.
If the only Brexit you will accept is one that in many respects is not really leaving at all you should not have voted to Leave in the first place
You (and others) are conflating what the situation is now with what the situation was in 2016. I've always been opposed to the Single Market and Freedom of Movement but that's about it - beyond that, I'd welcome any economic relationship with the EU which works well for both sides.
Back in 2016, there was plenty of comment about how "easy" it would be to come to a Deal with the EU and leave the political structures. I accept I did not anticipate issues around the NI border (how many did?).
We were where we were and we are where we are - the pro-Johnson line suggests all those who voted LEAVE in 2016 want us to leave and that result must be respected and enacted.
I don't accept that - I wouldn't vote to LEAVE now knowing where we are now but hindsight's a wonderful thing.
I've come to the view we now need a second vote to take into account the consequences and changes since 2016 - Remain, May's Deal or Leave without a Deal. We are more informed, we know more, some of the misconceptions of 2016 have bee laid bare (on both sides) so let's ask the question again.
The alternative is to treat the mandate like an election mandate - enact the decision made in 2016 but ask every five years if we wish to stay out or rejoin.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
Presumably someone who you categorise as a "Deal or No Deal" voter is expecting concessions from the EU, otherwise they'll support No Deal, so in the absence of concessions the two groups merge into one.
They want the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, which Boris will do, other than tgat they want Brexit delivered.
Chukka Umuna is very good this morning. Labour were very unlucky when he walked away at the start of their leadership campaign.
There's a growing view in the LDs he is a real asset potentially and on the assumption he can remain as an MP after the next GE I expect he will get a senior position in the LD team.
Chuka Umunna to be the first LD PM since Lloyd George in about 5 to 10 years time after the triumphant Boris premiership, the famous Boris election victory of 2019 and the delivery of Brexit is a possibility of course
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
But it is impossible to get a Deal now, because the wally has promised the ERG no deal by 31 Oct.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
If Boris gets a Tory majority he can pass it without the ERG hardliners and only Boris can get the Tory majority to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
You do realise that the ERG read posts like that, don’t you?
Nobody likes being played.
Nobody is being played, except HYUFD's sense of certainty. Boris won't get a majority as I highly doubt there will be an election before Brexit - and if there is if Boris doesn't pledge a hard Brexit then the Brexit Party won't stand down.
Boris can get to 32% and a majority even with the Brexit Party still on 14%.
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
Polls are meaningless, hypothetical polls even more so. Considering May lost her majority when the polls put her above 45% when the election was called the idea we can with certainty say Boris will gain a majority with hypotheticals putting him on 32% is utterly insane.
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnative
Brexit doesn't have to be delivered. The Tory party doesn't have to survive.
If the former the latter is likely and the Brexit Party becomes the main party of the right, quite possibly with PM Farage
You want an EEA Brexit, most Leave voters want a Brexit that leaves the EU, the Single Market and Customs Union and enables us to regain sovereignty, control of our borders and do our own trade deals exactly as the Leave campaign promised.
If the only Brexit you will accept is one that in many respects is not really leaving at all you should not have voted to Leave in the first place
You (and others) are conflating what the situation is now with what the situation was in 2016. I've always been opposed to the Single Market and Freedom of Movement but that's about it - beyond that, I'd welcome any economic relationship with the EU which works well for both sides.
Back in 2016, there was plenty of comment about how "easy" it would be to come to a Deal with the EU and leave the political structures. I accept I did not anticipate issues around the NI border (how many did?).
We were where we were and we are where we are - the pro-Johnson line suggests all those who voted LEAVE in 2016 want us to leave and that result must be respected and enacted.
I don't accept that - I wouldn't vote to LEAVE now knowing where we are now but hindsight's a wonderful thing.
I've come to the view we now need a second vote to take into account the consequences and changes since 2016 - Remain, May's Deal or Leave without a Deal. We are more informed, we know more, some of the misconceptions of 2016 have bee laid bare (on both sides) so let's ask the question again.
The alternative is to treat the mandate like an election mandate - enact the decision made in 2016 but ask every five years if we wish to stay out or rejoin.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
Chukka Umuna is very good this morning. Labour were very unlucky when he walked away at the start of their leadership campaign.
There's a growing view in the LDs he is a real asset potentially and on the assumption he can remain as an MP after the next GE I expect he will get a senior position in the LD team.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, t is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal at?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
But in your scenario he'll have won the majority by promising "Deal or No Deal" which is an ultimatum to the EU. How can he immediately turn around and try to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement while retaining the support of his MPs and voters?
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 as did the vast majority of Tory MPs, he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB so GB leaves the EU and single market and Customs Union and then begin FTA talks with Brussels having passed the Withdrawal Agreement
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
Indeed this is why HYUFD is talking absolute nonsense.
Farage has said he will stand the Brexit Party down and just an electoral alliance with the Tories if the Tories commit unequivocally to a "clean Brexit". But then if they do that, the rest of HYUFD's predictions can't happen. If the Tories don't do that, then their prevarication will cost them.
The Tories can't afford an election before Brexit and if it is before Brexit I don't see any way around make a deal with Farage which seems like a very Faustian pact I would abhor.
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
You were comparing it to Stoke.
Yes. Because you brought up Stoke. It is in our country, Paris is not.
Would you rather have our laws passed by Hartlepool or Sydney?
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, t is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal at?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
But in your scenario he'll have won the majority by promising "Deal or No Deal" which is an ultimatum to the EU. How can he immediately turn around and try to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement while retaining the support of his MPs and voters?
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
Cameron by not having a second referendum on the final deal really, really, really screwed the Tory party for ever.
The entertaining bit is that history will regard the following (last) 2 Tory PMs as worse than him...
Cameron’s victory at IndyRef1 made him arrogant. He failed to understand that the No victory was nothing to do with him at all. He did not possess special powers and he walked right into the Bastards’ trap.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
Sounds like you've no idea why you lost indyref1 if you think Cameron thought that he had anything to do with it.
Good to have someone intimate with Dave's innermost thoughts. Any word from the shepherd's hut on where he thinks the juggernaut of disaster that he set in motion is going to end up?
Of course Cameron's great contribution to Indy was making sure that as leader of the country he was never seen speaking to an ordinary Scot, ever. Probably a mistake to have his dishface on this though.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
You want an EEA Brexit, most Leave voters want a Brexit that leaves the EU, the Single Market and Customs Union and enables us to regain sovereignty, control of our borders and do our own trade deals exactly as the Leave campaign promised.
If the only Brexit you will accept is one that in many respects is not really leaving at all you should not have voted to Leave in the first place
You (and others) are conflating what the situation is now with what the situation was in 2016. I've always been opposed to the Single Market and Freedom of Movement but that's about it - beyond that, I'd welcome any economic relationship with the EU which works well for both sides.
Back in 2016, there was plenty of comment about how "easy" it would be to come to a Deal with the EU and leave the political structures. I accept I did not anticipate issues around the NI border (how many did?).
We were where we were and we are where we are - the pro-Johnson line suggests all those who voted LEAVE in 2016 want us to leave and that result must be respected and enacted.
I don't accept that - I wouldn't vote to LEAVE now knowing where we are now but hindsight's a wonderful thing.
I've come to the view we now need a second vote to take into account the consequences and changes since 2016 - Remain, May's Deal or Leave without a Deal. We are more informed, we know more, some of the misconceptions of 2016 have bee laid bare (on both sides) so let's ask the question again.
The alternative is to treat the mandate like an election mandate - enact the decision made in 2016 but ask every five years if we wish to stay out or rejoin.
You are normally a poster that comes across as delivering well thought out original thoughts, whether I am in agreement with them or not.
But to suggest an option is to have a perpetual in/out referendum every 5 years is completely bonkers. Even if the EU were to somehow agree to this, the accession/withdrawal process will take around 5 years each time!
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, t is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal at?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
But in your scenario he'll have won the majority by promising "Deal or No Deal" which is an ultimatum to the EU. How can he immediately turn around and try to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement while retaining the support of his MPs and voters?
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Deal
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
Er, you are aware there isn’t a whole host of LEGISLATION that has to be passed to enact the Withdrawal Agreement? That can’t be done in an afternoon!
Also you keep talking about how DIehard ERG nodealers can be ignored because enough people voted for WA at MV3 to suggest it could get over the line with a few changes. This totally ignores the fact that a lot of people voting for it (having failed at MV1 and 2 )was because they thought fail to pass it would mean extension and/or no Brexit.
Given the absolute choice (which Johnson is now offering) between WA and no deal many would go for no deal, so Johnson can’t even count on their support, let alone the ERG who wouldn’t vote for it at all!
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
Cameron by not having a second referendum on the final deal really, really, really screwed the Tory party for ever.
The entertaining bit is that history will regard the following (last) 2 Tory PMs as worse than him...
Cameron’s victory at IndyRef1 made him arrogant. He failed to understand that the No victory was nothing to do with him at all. He did not possess special powers and he walked right into the Bastards’ trap.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
Sounds like you've no idea why you lost indyref1 if you think Cameron thought that he had anything to do with it.
Good to have someone intimate with Dave's innermost thoughts. Any word from the shepherd's hut on where he thinks the juggernaut of disaster that he set in motion is going to end up?
Of course Cameron's great contribution to Indy was making sure that as leader of the country he was never seen speaking to an ordinary Scot, ever. Probably a mistake to have his dishface on this though.
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Deal
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Deal
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majority
Comments
He makes gaffes every time he opens his mouth, which probably explains his reticence at debates, interviews and the like.
Tories still don’t understand why they won IndyRef1 and why they lost BrexitRef1. That cheers me greatly. Long may Tory ignorance rule.
Cameron had his voters united behind him in 2014 but not in 2016, Labour saw its vote split in both referendums
The fact he was, as StuartDickson states, too arrogant to think through and plan all possible consequences of the vote is something that should haunt him forever...
"We should stay. I shall therefore hold a referendum on whether we should leave."
I maintain, however, that, a referendum being held, actually defining the option to leave would've been wise.
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1149985998526451713
https://twitter.com/rh0desy/status/1149988770709745665
Rifkind can never take the moral high ground.
However if I did have a membership vote I would have voted for Boris, like I voted for Cameron 14 years ago.
They are never going to vote for a Deal now when their promised land is within their grasp.
There would've been no desire for said referendum had the 'qualified' political class not integrated the nation far more into the EU than the electorate wanted, without ever consulting said electorate.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Dickson, I think you put too much stock in a Borisian promise.
Lordy, you guys really *are* flying by the seats of your pants. I’m going to enjoy watching you crash and burn.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
But hell hath no fury like the ERG spurned.
Good afternoon, everybody.
Nobody likes being played.
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Labour leave constituency MPs don't need to. If they so desire they can find enough No Deal only constituents to legitimately claim they couldn't vote for a Deal.
So it does require Boris to get the ERG to vote for a deal otherwise we will crash out on No Deal and Boris and the Tory party will 100% own however we end up.
I suspect it will be a grade A mess but the ERG think things will be fine...
Surprised to see Gasly ahead of Verstappen once again.
Will peruse the odds.
He will never persuade enough Labour MPs to vote for it to overcome the 58 vote defeat the Withdrawal Agreement suffered at MV3, only more Tory MPs can overcome that deficit
To Remainers: Fuck off and vote Lib Dem
To Hard Brexiteers: Vote for us so we can ignore you
If you want No Deal only you will vote Brexit Party whatever Boris says
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Deputy leader told to ‘consider your position’ over response to BBC Panorama investigation"
https://www.ft.com/content/1a000d68-a49a-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1
Back in 2016, there was plenty of comment about how "easy" it would be to come to a Deal with the EU and leave the political structures. I accept I did not anticipate issues around the NI border (how many did?).
We were where we were and we are where we are - the pro-Johnson line suggests all those who voted LEAVE in 2016 want us to leave and that result must be respected and enacted.
I don't accept that - I wouldn't vote to LEAVE now knowing where we are now but hindsight's a wonderful thing.
I've come to the view we now need a second vote to take into account the consequences and changes since 2016 - Remain, May's Deal or Leave without a Deal. We are more informed, we know more, some of the misconceptions of 2016 have bee laid bare (on both sides) so let's ask the question again.
The alternative is to treat the mandate like an election mandate - enact the decision made in 2016 but ask every five years if we wish to stay out or rejoin.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
If you want Brexit delivered Deal or No Deal you will vote for a Boris led Tory Party, if you want Brexit delivered only with No Deal you will still vote Brexit Party.
As shown Boris can get the Tories to 32% and a majority even with the Brexit Party still on 14%
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1104052380088393733
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1149940397260595201
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 as did the vast majority of Tory MPs, he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB so GB leaves the EU and single market and Customs Union and then begin FTA talks with Brussels having passed the Withdrawal Agreement
Farage has said he will stand the Brexit Party down and just an electoral alliance with the Tories if the Tories commit unequivocally to a "clean Brexit". But then if they do that, the rest of HYUFD's predictions can't happen. If the Tories don't do that, then their prevarication will cost them.
The Tories can't afford an election before Brexit and if it is before Brexit I don't see any way around make a deal with Farage which seems like a very Faustian pact I would abhor.
Would you rather have our laws passed by Hartlepool or Sydney?
I can't tell the real accounts from the satirical ones anymore.
Of course Cameron's great contribution to Indy was making sure that as leader of the country he was never seen speaking to an ordinary Scot, ever. Probably a mistake to have his dishface on this though.
https://twitter.com/abigdoob/status/641200546100215808
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Result is also Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
But to suggest an option is to have a perpetual in/out referendum every 5 years is completely bonkers. Even if the EU were to somehow agree to this, the accession/withdrawal process will take around 5 years each time!
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
Also you keep talking about how DIehard ERG nodealers can be ignored because enough people voted for WA at MV3 to suggest it could get over the line with a few changes. This totally ignores the fact that a lot of people voting for it (having failed at MV1 and 2 )was because they thought fail to pass it would mean extension and/or no Brexit.
Given the absolute choice (which Johnson is now offering) between WA and no deal many would go for no deal, so Johnson can’t even count on their support, let alone the ERG who wouldn’t vote for it at all!
It's exactly those tactics of his that makes me think he understands and knows his role in indyref1.
But your predictions are based on Boris winning a majority.
It is Catch 22.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20
May couldn't win a majority polling 45%
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20