He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret
Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it
I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.
Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
Truss business not treasury, IDS and Patel who knows but even Boris must see Grayling is the worst cabinet minister in years
Onto finer things. I am in the Dales this weekend. Just about to go full English in preparation for a day's hiking, with Tetley's and Timothy Taylor lined up for the evening. Should be a good day!!
I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?
Who is Councillor Green and why is his opinion relevant? Where else has he been correct to show that his judgement is sound?
Who spends their days trawling Twitter for opinions supporting their own other than bedroom dwellers whose wank socks are over crunchy?
Who suggested Councillor Green‘s opinion was relevant? You seem to struggle with context online.
You posted it so you must have assumed so.
Must I? It’s just a video clip of Alan Mendoza from the Henry Jackson Society. Why would you assume I think the comment attached to it was of any particular significance? You do an awful lot of projection.
Freedom of the press does matter. Though I don't think anyone's called for those publishing the information to be subjected to any kind of trial, only for the leaker, who seems, prima facie, to have something of a case to answer.
See George Osborne and others launch a full on attack on the Met for looking into the leak
How out of touch is he (and others) if he thinks the public do not support this investigation 100%
G, it is amazing that the Met cannot handle day to day crime , always whining about lack of resource. Suddenly they have shedloads of spares to urgently find out who leaked an e-mail. Usual drill for this country , people being killed daily is of little interest but leak a toffs e-mail and they will have vanloads descending on you. Sums the state of this broken country up perfectly.
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
God help us if that bunch of lying rats ever get it
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
God help us if that bunch of lying rats ever get it
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
God help us if that bunch of lying rats ever get it
In a deal with the SNP...
I doubt it , but still not make it good, they would welch on any deal for sure, especially if Swinson the carpetbagger ends up leader.
As for candidates expected to make a return to Cabinet, both Gavin Williamson, who was sacked by Theresa May as defence secretary over a Huawei leak, and Grant Shapps, who stood down from Cabinet in 2015, are expected to win roles. Both have been instrumental in Johnson’s campaign.
“There’s so much expectation, a lot of ambitious people are going to be left very disappointed. That’s not a good thing when there is no Tory majority,” says one Johnson supporter.
And what if this is all a waste of time and Jeremy Hunt causes one of the biggest upsets of the past three years, and wins? “A lot of us are going to look very foolish indeed,” says one Tory MP.
Mr. G, you don't think leaking diplomatic communications is worthy of serious investigation?
Compared to real crimes that are not being addressed, NO. The content showed that these are just overpaid buffoons , supping at the public trough. I do not need millions of public money spent on these toffs to know that Trump is an ars*hole and inept. It is just jobs for the boys and millions squandered on a small group of school chums pretending that UK is still relevant on the world stage. Given they will be up against Iran shortly they better hope Trump is in a good mood, being his lapdog may not play out well.
Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret
Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it
I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.
Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
Truss business not treasury, IDS and Patel who knows but even Boris must see Grayling is the worst cabinet minister in years
Grayling. Or that Foreign Secretary who got a British citizen banged up in Iran by providing the evidence.
But leaving aside serial incompetence, there is surely a new class of crass ignorance.
Of ministers who apparently have never watched the news or opened a paper or looked at a map. Like the Brexit Secretary who thought we'd need to make separate deals with each of the EU27. Or the one who didn't realise a lot of trade went through Dover. Or the Northern Ireland Secretary to whom it was a revelation that loyalists and nationalists voted for different parties.
We have had bad ministers before, but is there a precedent for these know-nothings?
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
Corbyn could still get in. With those dozens of super safe seats it has a good chance of being largest party in any election. The LDs would not back anyone in a hung parliament situation? Or would they back Corbyn in very limited circumstances?
His answer to that was "why this defeatism?".....I expect that'll work a treat with the EU.....
5c irrelevant.
Boris recognises we are effectively in a state of war with diehard Remainers and every second of every minute of every hour of every day until October 31st must be spent defeating them In order to deliver Brexit
Your language on this topic is getting amazingly over the top. No price too high, no action too much, state of war, details dont matter, everyone will do as Boris wants, he will negotiate in a day no wait he will no deal no wait he will say he'll no deal but then pass the WA after winning a GE. You keep contradicting yourself about what Boris will do.
Bottom line is Brexit could have been delivered and Borus resisted it because he would not be PM. He eventually backed Brexit but not after trashing it for over 6 months. He was not the only one, the die hard remainers resisted too, but at least they considered voting for brexit unacceptable. Boris proved the version of brexit on offer was acceptable but he was either too dumb to notice it for 6 months or he was too cynical to do so.
At least Baker and Grieve believed the reasons they resisted voting for that Brexit.
Johnson's eloquence is one of his few redeeming features. The use of language seldom heard since the 1950s like piffle and gumption is perhaps an allegory for his forthcoming Premiership.
His answer to that was "why this defeatism?".....I expect that'll work a treat with the EU.....
5c irrelevant.
Boris recognises we are effectively in a state of war with diehard Remainers and every second of every minute of every hour of every day until October 31st must be spent defeating them In order to deliver Brexit
Your language on this topic is getting amazingly over the top. No price too high, no action too much, state of war, details dont matter, everyone will do as Boris wants, he will negotiate in a day no wait he will no deal no wait he will say he'll no deal but then pass the WA after winning a GE. You keep contradicting yourself about what Boris will do.
Bottom line is Brexit could have been delivered and Borus resisted it because he would not be PM. He eventually backed Brexit but not after trashing it for over 6 months. He was not the only one, the die hard remainers resisted too, but at least they considered voting for brexit unacceptable. Boris proved the version of brexit on offer was acceptable but he was either too dumb to notice it for 6 months or he was too cynical to do so.
At least Baker and Grieve believed the reasons they resisted voting for that Brexit.
Don’t forget the dead certain NI referendum which compared to a week ago seems to have fallen out of favour.
As for candidates expected to make a return to Cabinet, both Gavin Williamson, who was sacked by Theresa May as defence secretary over a Huawei leak, and Grant Shapps, who stood down from Cabinet in 2015, are expected to win roles. Both have been instrumental in Johnson’s campaign.
“There’s so much expectation, a lot of ambitious people are going to be left very disappointed. That’s not a good thing when there is no Tory majority,” says one Johnson supporter.
And what if this is all a waste of time and Jeremy Hunt causes one of the biggest upsets of the past three years, and wins? “A lot of us are going to look very foolish indeed,” says one Tory MP.
What a silly thing to do - it's going to happen eventually and will cause a row regardless, why reopen it to win a few more votes when hes winning at a canter anyway?
“There is also a view that the Government needs a grey-beard, an experienced figure who can help steady the ship...Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Fallon are being heavily tipped for this role.”
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
From his time in London we know that the one thing he hates is being pinned down and forced to face his precious promises.
His preferred strategy is to tapdance around and avoid taking any firm positions in the first place.
We know that to believe true as his biggest defender on here, while maintaining that he will be a churchillian colossus, also insists he will do a whole series on contradictory things, such as pass the WA after winning an election designed to bring on board no deal backing BXP voters.
What a silly thing to do - it's going to happen eventually and will cause a row regardless, why reopen it to win a few more votes when hes winning at a canter anyway?
Because Boris says anything for cheap popularity with an audience. Combine this with not doing his homework, and we are his vacuity on full display.
Really sharp insight from David Herdson. We can expect his Premiership to be one of dither and drift, with him acting like a cushion, marked by the imprint of the last person to sit on him.
It'll be a short tenure though, unless he is so fortunate as to get a miracle.
Johnson's eloquence is one of his few redeeming features. The use of language seldom heard since the 1950s like piffle and gumption is perhaps an allegory for his forthcoming Premiership.
Boris is not eloquent. He has a gift for coining memorable phrases but unlike Churchill, will not put in the hard hours to craft them into whole speeches and practise their delivery. Just listen to the man.
Once in Number 10, he needs to work with his speechwriters so they write the first draft onto which Boris can sprinkle a few bon mots. Then practise, or at least get his eyes fixed so he can read an autocue.
As for candidates expected to make a return to Cabinet, both Gavin Williamson, who was sacked by Theresa May as defence secretary over a Huawei leak, and Grant Shapps, who stood down from Cabinet in 2015, are expected to win roles. Both have been instrumental in Johnson’s campaign.
“There’s so much expectation, a lot of ambitious people are going to be left very disappointed. That’s not a good thing when there is no Tory majority,” says one Johnson supporter.
And what if this is all a waste of time and Jeremy Hunt causes one of the biggest upsets of the past three years, and wins? “A lot of us are going to look very foolish indeed,” says one Tory MP.
I've more chance of winning as a write in candidate than Hunt.
Hunt either stays in the FO (Boris will want to strut the stage abroad - none of those pesky "details") or returns to the back benches....along with Hammond and May......who may make PM Boris' life "interesting".....
Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret
Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it
I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.
Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
Truss business not treasury, IDS and Patel who knows but even Boris must see Grayling is the worst cabinet minister in years
There are perhaps 50-100 who wouldnt serve if Boris asked. Boris has said they must all be willing to countenance no deal, might rule out another 50 on top of those who choose not to serve. Not many left given he has 150 odd govt posts to fill, you can see why he is keen on a smaller cabinet.
Whether he makes the cut or not, Grayling will soon have stiff competition for that worst cabinet minister of recent times tag.
The GATT thing last night was brilliant. Neil: "Article (sic) 5b…" Johnson: "Paragraph 5b. Get the details right Andrew..." … Neil: "Do you know what paragraph 5c says?" Johnson: "No" Neil: "And you lecture me about 'details'?" Johnson: "Quite right. You didn't even know the difference between a paragraph and an article!"
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
Yes. It's possible that there will be no single such figure, but a number of them, all vying for Johnson's favour in an interminable struggle within Number Ten and the Cabinet. I suppose it will give something for the Sunday papers to write about.
Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret
Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it
I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.
Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
Truss business not treasury
This week Liz Truss, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, used a lunch in Parliament to advertise her desire for the job. Addressing her rivals, Truss suggested that she was better at maths than Javid (she has a Further Maths A-level), and dismissed Health Secretary Matt Hancock as a contender on the grounds that he has fewer than 5,000 Instagram followers.
On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
You miss the point. This isn't about Darroch it's about Johnson. He failed to give unequivocal support to a senior civil servant when any second rate MP let alone a former Foreign Secretary would have known that he should have done. His behaviour was pusillanimous and unfitting of a future PM.
(Not s bad as having a fight with his slapper in the early hours but he seems to have got away with that one)
Given that we all accept that delegation is the name of the game who is going to be in this cabinet?
There has to be a major clear out of the no marks and drones that May favoured. Goodbye and good riddance to the likes of Hammond, Liddington, Grayling (please!!) and many others.
Boris should try hard to bring Stewart in but I fear that is impossible. He must keep Gove. Relations with Hunt have been sharper than expected in this campaign but he will be important. The Saj probably remains in post. I think Rudd has something to offer yet but there will be an expectation of promotions for committed leavers. Sifting through the asylum known as the ERG for the vaguely house trained and marginally competent is not a job for the faint of heart.
From his time in London we know that the one thing he hates is being pinned down and forced to face his precious promises.
His preferred strategy is to tapdance around and avoid taking any firm positions in the first place.
We know that to believe true as his biggest defender on here, while maintaining that he will be a churchillian colossus, also insists he will do a whole series on contradictory things, such as pass the WA after winning an election designed to bring on board no deal backing BXP voters.
HYUFD seems to be one of the few on this forum who idiolise Boris.
Boris does not give me any confidence that he will succeed, other than a possible superficial pivot with the EU to pass the WDA.
Even he must know the key to brexit is in passing the WDA
The GATT thing last night was brilliant. Neil: "Article (sic) 5b…" Johnson: "Paragraph 5b. Get the details right Andrew..." … Neil: "Do you know what paragraph 5c says?" Johnson: "No" Neil: "And you lecture me about 'details'?" Johnson: "Quite right. You didn't even know the difference between a paragraph and an article!"
So basically we're electing a pedant as PM.
An inconsistent pedant.
It doesn't matter - pedants are great. The amount of fun I get from destroying Grammar pedants in arguments at work is great.
It's a simple game - you post a discussion document with typos - they complain about the typos and you thank them for spotting the mistakes while stating that as the only issue they had was a typo or three you will take their email as confirmation of the decision and start implementing it.
There are some people who have fallen for this trick every 3-7 months for the past 5 years...
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
Matt Hancock has been tipped for the Whitelaw role. Trouble is, Boris needs two. Hancock for the Cameroons and mainstream Conservatives. IDS or DD for the headbanger wing, ever suspicious of betrayal. Maybe even JRM if he can find something that will not conflict with making piles of dosh in the City (of Dublin).
“There is also a view that the Government needs a grey-beard, an experienced figure who can help steady the ship...Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Fallon are being heavily tipped for this role.”
*roll* a sex pest or a cretin...
So Johnson will preside over a GNAT- a government of no actual talent.
The GATT thing last night was brilliant. Neil: "Article (sic) 5b…" Johnson: "Paragraph 5b. Get the details right Andrew..." … Neil: "Do you know what paragraph 5c says?" Johnson: "No" Neil: "And you lecture me about 'details'?" Johnson: "Quite right. You didn't even know the difference between a paragraph and an article!"
So basically we're electing a pedant as PM.
An inconsistent pedant.
It doesn't matter - pedants are great. The amount of fun I get from destroying Grammar pedants in arguments at work is great.
It's a simple game - you post a discussion document with typos - they complain about the typos and you thank them for spotting the mistakes while stating that as the only issue they had was a typo or three you will take their email as confirmation of the decision and start implementing it.
There are some people who have fallen for this trick every 3-7 months for the past 5 years...
Lol. I've never done that deliberately, but seems a sound approach .
Given that we all accept that delegation is the name of the game who is going to be in this cabinet?
There has to be a major clear out of the no marks and drones that May favoured. Goodbye and good riddance to the likes of Hammond, Liddington, Grayling (please!!) and many others.
Boris should try hard to bring Stewart in but I fear that is impossible. He must keep Gove. Relations with Hunt have been sharper than expected in this campaign but he will be important. The Saj probably remains in post. I think Rudd has something to offer yet but there will be an expectation of promotions for committed leavers. Sifting through the asylum known as the ERG for the vaguely house trained and marginally competent is not a job for the faint of heart.
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
To refer back to the productivity discussion of yesterday, things which I think are factors in the stagnation include:
1) An increase in the available workforce reducing the need for capital investment.
2) A shift in the balance of the economy to lower productivity sectors - the carwash and coffee shop economy.
3) An increase in rules and regulations meaning the proportion of 'overhead' employees has increased.
4) ZIRP leading to the survival of zombie companies and thus a misallocation of resources.
5) An inequality of gains from previous productivity increases - if the executive oligarchy receive the benefit from increases in worker productivity but the workers don't then the workers will not be likely to look for further productivity increases.
6) Too many pointless emails being sent with too many people being copied in.
Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret
Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it
I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.
Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
Truss business not treasury
This week Liz Truss, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, used a lunch in Parliament to advertise her desire for the job. Addressing her rivals, Truss suggested that she was better at maths than Javid (she has a Further Maths A-level), and dismissed Health Secretary Matt Hancock as a contender on the grounds that he has fewer than 5,000 Instagram followers.
Given that we all accept that delegation is the name of the game who is going to be in this cabinet?
There has to be a major clear out of the no marks and drones that May favoured. Goodbye and good riddance to the likes of Hammond, Liddington, Grayling (please!!) and many others.
Boris should try hard to bring Stewart in but I fear that is impossible. He must keep Gove. Relations with Hunt have been sharper than expected in this campaign but he will be important. The Saj probably remains in post. I think Rudd has something to offer yet but there will be an expectation of promotions for committed leavers. Sifting through the asylum known as the ERG for the vaguely house trained and marginally competent is not a job for the faint of heart.
Nearly all the ERG will need to take a govt job, albeit obviously not all at cabinet level. These are the people he will be delegating to, not Stewart, Hammond, Gauke, Lidington, possibly even Gove will get excluded as against no deal.
The cream of what is left are perhaps Javid, Hunt?, Cox with key roles for Leadsom, Patel, Truss, IDS, Barclay, Williamson, Mordaunt, Rudd?, Fox?, Hancock? Newcomers likely to include Ben Wallace, Steve Baker, Rishi Sunak.
I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?
I suppose it is. You either give them something else they want more, or leave them worried about the consequences of walking away.
However, I don't think that there is anything more important to Ireland than the border, so we have nothing to offer them. Similarly, there doesn't seem to be anything that they fear more than being left without the guarantee of the backstop, and they seem confident that a result of no deal will be the UK signing up to the backstop in desperation.
This latter belief may be one half of the decisive miscalculation that will send us over the edge.
Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret
Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it
I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.
Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
Truss business not treasury
This week Liz Truss, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, used a lunch in Parliament to advertise her desire for the job. Addressing her rivals, Truss suggested that she was better at maths than Javid (she has a Further Maths A-level), and dismissed Health Secretary Matt Hancock as a contender on the grounds that he has fewer than 5,000 Instagram followers.
Seriously, what adult over 25 in a senior job cites their A levels as a sign of their capabilities. Further maths is completely irrelevant to being chancellor.
Didn't Boris show real strength and resolve in not giving in to Crow's demands when he was Mayor.. oh wait. Yes, David is spot on and so was Meeks imprint comment BTL.
“There is also a view that the Government needs a grey-beard, an experienced figure who can help steady the ship...Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Fallon are being heavily tipped for this role.”
*roll* a sex pest or a cretin...
So Johnson will preside over a GNAT- a government of no actual talent.
comprising of :- Completely useless non talented specimens
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
To refer back to the productivity discussion of yesterday, things which I think are factors in the stagnation include:
1) An increase in the available workforce reducing the need for capital investment.
2) A shift in the balance of the economy to lower productivity sectors - the carwash and coffee shop economy.
3) An increase in rules and regulations meaning the proportion of 'overhead' employees has increased.
4) ZIRP leading to the survival of zombie companies and thus a misallocation of resources.
5) An inequality of gains from previous productivity increases - if the executive oligarchy receive the benefit from increases in worker productivity but the workers don't then the workers will not be likely to look for further productivity increases.
6) Too many pointless emails being sent with too many people being copied in.
Hard to see why that affects us more than the other G7 countries. Even harder to see how Brexit helps, the two countries that we beat at productivity in the G7 are Japan and Canada.
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
Corbyn could still get in. With those dozens of super safe seats it has a good chance of being largest party in any election. The LDs would not back anyone in a hung parliament situation? Or would they back Corbyn in very limited circumstances?
If LDs and BXP squeak enough Tory seats in the south is it possible for Lab to be largest party, without also having the largest share of the popular vote, or do their inefficient but vast piles of voters in safe seats preclude that in all but the most outlandish of circumstances?
Yawn. Yet another anti Boris diatribe of an article based purely on Boris hatred.
The fact is without Boris leading it Vote Leave would not have won, had Farage been leading it it would likely have been a narrow Remain win and due to the sheer contempt for democracy of diehard Remainers in both voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and against No Deal it needs Boris to again deliver it.
Only Boris has the determination, the ruthlessness and the charisma to finally defeat the diehard Remainers and deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st. Yes if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so as a last resort so be it and if Parliament VONC him so be it too he can go to the country on a Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket with him or likely No Brexit at all with a Corbyn minority government propped up by the diehard Remainer LDs and SNP.
As for accusations of laziness had Boris wanted to coast through Oxford he could have done PPE, instead he did Classics, on the whole a tougher degree especially after the economics element of PPE is dropped.
The person who wrote that school report on Boris, Martin Hammond, was my old Headmaster but it says nothing beyond Boris was a maverick and did his own thing regardless of what the establishment expected of him.
Churchill of course had similar school reports at Harrow and was equally as unconventional as Boris at the time, indeed had PB existed in 1939 I expect there would have been plenty of pro Chamberlain and pro Halifax and pro Munich Agreement articles and plenty of anti Churchill ones
An aside, but BBC news last night had some weird editorial decisions.
An interview with May that revealed nothing was put ahead of coverage of the Hunt/Johnson interviews. And the 'sporty weekend' ramble put netball ahead of F1 (which barely got a mention).
Mr. HYUFD, if Boris has charisma then why do many here were formerly pro-Boris (I very much enjoyed his daft Olympics speech) now regard him in a rather inferior light?
If familiarity breeds contempt then perhaps that charisma is a shiny veneer beneath which there's an incompetent.
If Boris is determined, why did he hide in Afghanistan rather than resign over the Heathrow decision?
If he's ruthless, why did he only leave the Cabinet when Davis jumped first?
It's a funny sort of leadership to hide from commitment, and to follow what someone else does.
He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.
Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.
***or***
The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
Corbyn isn't getting in. The old binary Labour or Tory choice is broken. Watch the LibDems
Corbyn could still get in. With those dozens of super safe seats it has a good chance of being largest party in any election. The LDs would not back anyone in a hung parliament situation? Or would they back Corbyn in very limited circumstances?
If LDs and BXP squeak enough Tory seats in the south is it possible for Lab to be largest party, without also having the largest share of the popular vote, or do their inefficient but vast piles of voters in safe seats preclude that in all but the most outlandish of circumstances?
Labour's vote distribution is inefficient at a share of 35-40% of the vote, but optimal for a ~20% share.
So Labour winning most seats while in third or fourth in vote share is certainly possible.
He has a point, although I wouldn't say it's a strategic one. There's a difference between a clear understanding of the reality us and celebrating weakness on your own side
On the other hand, the refusal ever to deal with reality is the strategic mistake made by the cause he espouses. In the case of Ireland, to acknowledge Ireland has legitimate interests, which they decide on and which they have some leverage over. As Ireland holds a significant Brexit key, it would be sensible to try to engage Ireland as an ally rather than treat it and its interests with aggressive condescension.
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
To refer back to the productivity discussion of yesterday, things which I think are factors in the stagnation include:
1) An increase in the available workforce reducing the need for capital investment.
2) A shift in the balance of the economy to lower productivity sectors - the carwash and coffee shop economy.
3) An increase in rules and regulations meaning the proportion of 'overhead' employees has increased.
4) ZIRP leading to the survival of zombie companies and thus a misallocation of resources.
5) An inequality of gains from previous productivity increases - if the executive oligarchy receive the benefit from increases in worker productivity but the workers don't then the workers will not be likely to look for further productivity increases.
6) Too many pointless emails being sent with too many people being copied in.
I would suggest that the lack of capital investment in business is due to the easy money that can be made in buy-to-let property.
A brutal piece but, I think, absolutely on the money. Behind all the bluster and "charm" there is nothing there. He has no ideas or principles, and tells people what he thinks they want to hear because he is needy and lacks the confidence to try to change people's minds. He will be a truly abject PM. The only hope is that he beats George Canning's record.
Yawn. Yet another anti Boris diatribe of an article based purely on Boris hatred.
The fact is without Boris leading it Vote Leave would not have won, had Farage been leading it it would likely have been a narrow Remain win and due to the sheer contempt for democracy of diehard Remainers in both voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and against No Deal it needs Boris to again deliver it.
Only Boris has the determination, the ruthlessness and the charisma to finally defeat the diehard Remainers and deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st. Yes if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so as a last resort so be it and if Parliament VONC him so be it too he can go to the country on a Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket with him or likely No Brexit at all with a Corbyn minority government propped up by the diehard Remainer LDs and SNP.
As for accusations of laziness had Boris wanted to coast through Oxford he could have done PPE, instead he did Classics, on the whole a tougher degree especially after the economics element of PPE is dropped
Will you end up posting Trump-style complaints about “Prime Ministerial Harassment” when Johnson comes under pressure?
“There is also a view that the Government needs a grey-beard, an experienced figure who can help steady the ship...Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Fallon are being heavily tipped for this role.”
IDS is a possibility to replace Lidington as Deputy PM under Boris I have heard
Boris reminds me very much of a guy I used to know as a friend of a friend in Edinburgh in the late eighties. All bluff and mouth and no substance. Also greedy and a total stranger to the truth. That chap ended up doing a very long stretch in a South African prison I believe. Not sure how far bluff will get him in that environment.
Boris faces a different hostile environment. Can’t see Whitehall being terribly impressed with him. The privately-educated ones will look on him with disdain because they will be familiar with the character type from their schooldays. The state-educated ones (who are becoming more common) will look on him with utter contempt.
Yawn. Yet another anti Boris diatribe of an article based purely on Boris hatred.
The fact is without Boris leading it Vote Leave would not have won, had Farage been leading it it would likely have been a narrow Remain win and due to the sheer contempt for democracy of diehard Remainers in both voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and against No Deal it needs Boris to again deliver it.
Only Boris has the determination, the ruthlessness and the charisma to finally defeat the diehard Remainers and deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st. Yes if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so as a last resort so be it and if Parliament VONC him so be it too he can go to the country on a Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket with him or likely No Brexit at all with a Corbyn minority government propped up by the diehard Remainer LDs and SNP.
As for accusations of laziness had Boris wanted to coast through Oxford he could have done PPE, instead he did Classics, on the whole a tougher degree especially after the economics element of PPE is dropped.
The person who wrote that school report on Boris, Martin Hammond, was my old Headmaster but it says nothing beyond Boris was a maverick and did his own thing regardless of what the establishment expected of him.
Churchill of course had similar school reports at Harrow and was equally as unconventional as Boris at the time, indeed had PB existed in 1939 I expect there would have been plenty of pro Chamberlain and pro Halifax and pro Munich Agreement articles and plenty of anti Churchill ones
I think the general viewpoint is that the more people see of Boris the more obvious his screw ups become.
Which is why I love your idea that Boris is going to win an election. As you may have noticed during this campaign Boris always takes the easy answer - which means he has promised something or other to everyone who has asked him a question.
And if we look back to at the referendum you can see he did the same which is why Brexit won because everyone voted for their unicorn version of Brexit.
However, when we hit a general election there will be a day like yesterday's Andrew Neil debate where all his promises will be placed one after another and he will be called out on his contradictions and at that moment votes will go another way.
I think you assume that in elections people vote for the best candidate. I don't think they do - they vote for the least worst that has a chance of winning - and for a lot of people Boris means the Tories are no longer the least worst..
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
To refer back to the productivity discussion of yesterday, things which I think are factors in the stagnation include:
1) An increase in the available workforce reducing the need for capital investment.
2) A shift in the balance of the economy to lower productivity sectors - the carwash and coffee shop economy.
3) An increase in rules and regulations meaning the proportion of 'overhead' employees has increased.
4) ZIRP leading to the survival of zombie companies and thus a misallocation of resources.
5) An inequality of gains from previous productivity increases - if the executive oligarchy receive the benefit from increases in worker productivity but the workers don't then the workers will not be likely to look for further productivity increases.
6) Too many pointless emails being sent with too many people being copied in.
Hard to see why that affects us more than the other G7 countries. Even harder to see how Brexit helps, the two countries that we beat at productivity in the G7 are Japan and Canada.
Mr. Observer, it's bizarre. Not least because they have obvious multiple recent examples of polling changing rapidly. Pointing at Boris' apparent popularity this moment, before he's done a day as PM, as if it's set in stone as a positive, when May blew a 20 point lead and the Lib Dems have come roaring back, and BP has come out of nowhere, is just weird.
Nor weird really. If you accept that people do not usually vote FOR a party, but AGAINST the one the dislike most, then that means they have a choice of two or three or four others - and can switch quite comfortably depending on the circumstances.
The problem that some PB posters have - and I think Mr HY is high up on this list - is that they assume that if a person has voted for a Conservative candidate once, they will vote Conservative for evermore. That may have been the case once upon a time, but it certainly isn`t now.
If Boris does not win then yes there is a serious risk the Brexit Party will overtake the Tories as the main party of the right, correct
I can't claim to have high expectations of a Johnson premiership but I still expect it to be better than May. Admittedly that is a pretty low bar.
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
To refer back to the productivity discussion of yesterday, things which I think are factors in the stagnation include:
1) An increase in the available workforce reducing the need for capital investment.
2) A shift in the balance of the economy to lower productivity sectors - the carwash and coffee shop economy.
3) An increase in rules and regulations meaning the proportion of 'overhead' employees has increased.
4) ZIRP leading to the survival of zombie companies and thus a misallocation of resources.
5) An inequality of gains from previous productivity increases - if the executive oligarchy receive the benefit from increases in worker productivity but the workers don't then the workers will not be likely to look for further productivity increases.
6) Too many pointless emails being sent with too many people being copied in.
I would suggest that the lack of capital investment in business is due to the easy money that can be made in buy-to-let property.
Interesting point.
Many people think the government will never let nominal house prices fall and they might be right.
Allied to David Herdson’s point, the course of the government will be set by those around Boris Johnson. Place your bets on how Brexit will be approached accordingly.
Mr. HYUFD, if Boris has charisma then why do many here were formerly pro-Boris (I very much enjoyed his daft Olympics speech) now regard him in a rather inferior light?
If familiarity breeds contempt then perhaps that charisma is a shiny veneer beneath which there's an incompetent.
If Boris is determined, why did he hide in Afghanistan rather than resign over the Heathrow decision?
If he's ruthless, why did he only leave the Cabinet when Davis jumped first?
It's a funny sort of leadership to hide from commitment, and to follow what someone else does.
As he backed Leave mainly and is committed to delivering it Deal or No Deal, most on here are either diehard Remainers or soft BINO Brexiteers. It took courage for Boris to go against the establishment and back Leave and then win that campaign in 2016.
Plenty of PBers would have backed Halifax over Churchill in 1939 and plenty would have backed Heath over Thatcher in 1975 just as they are backing Hunt over Boris rather than backing a rebel prepared to buck the consensus of the British establishment
Allied to David Herdson’s point, the course of the government will be set by those around Boris Johnson. Place your bets on how Brexit will be approached accordingly.
Very astute point. Unexpectedly, the safest pair of hands at the moment are those of Liam Fox.
Comments
https://twitter.com/sjscholefield/status/1149946737647378433?s=21
A leader would have kept this firmly closed.
Sums the state of this broken country up perfectly.
“There’s so much expectation, a lot of ambitious people are going to be left very disappointed. That’s not a good thing when there is no Tory majority,” says one Johnson supporter.
And what if this is all a waste of time and Jeremy Hunt causes one of the biggest upsets of the past three years, and wins? “A lot of us are going to look very foolish indeed,” says one Tory MP.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/boris-johnson-cabinet-who-tory-leadership-katy-balls/
It is just jobs for the boys and millions squandered on a small group of school chums pretending that UK is still relevant on the world stage.
Given they will be up against Iran shortly they better hope Trump is in a good mood, being his lapdog may not play out well.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9498113/boris-johnson-first-72-hours-downing-street/
But leaving aside serial incompetence, there is surely a new class of crass ignorance.
Of ministers who apparently have never watched the news or opened a paper or looked at a map. Like the Brexit Secretary who thought we'd need to make separate deals with each of the EU27. Or the one who didn't realise a lot of trade went through Dover. Or the Northern Ireland Secretary to whom it was a revelation that loyalists and nationalists voted for different parties.
We have had bad ministers before, but is there a precedent for these know-nothings?
I expect him to delegate a lot so much will depend on who his enforcer is. Mrs T had Willie Whitelaw in her early years, Blair had Campbell, Cameron had Osborne, May never really trusted anyone and funnily enough found herself short of allies.
I find the fact that Williamson is in line for this role more troubling than Boris himself. He seems to be a devious little shit and is much more focused on himself than the good enforcers are. Boris could really do with getting Osborne back. He needs someone to do the day job and it is not Williamson.
Bottom line is Brexit could have been delivered and Borus resisted it because he would not be PM. He eventually backed Brexit but not after trashing it for over 6 months. He was not the only one, the die hard remainers resisted too, but at least they considered voting for brexit unacceptable. Boris proved the version of brexit on offer was acceptable but he was either too dumb to notice it for 6 months or he was too cynical to do so.
At least Baker and Grieve believed the reasons they resisted voting for that Brexit.
Michael GreenGrant Shapps is rumoured for a come back....“There is also a view that the Government needs a grey-beard, an experienced figure who can help steady the ship...Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Fallon are being heavily tipped for this role.”
Once in Number 10, he needs to work with his speechwriters so they write the first draft onto which Boris can sprinkle a few bon mots. Then practise, or at least get his eyes fixed so he can read an autocue.
Whether he makes the cut or not, Grayling will soon have stiff competition for that worst cabinet minister of recent times tag.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/12/country-beta-males-alphas-latin-president-tweeting-enemies?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/boris-johnson-cabinet-who-tory-leadership-katy-balls/
Obvs., really......
(Not s bad as having a fight with his slapper in the early hours but he seems to have got away with that one)
There has to be a major clear out of the no marks and drones that May favoured. Goodbye and good riddance to the likes of Hammond, Liddington, Grayling (please!!) and many others.
Boris should try hard to bring Stewart in but I fear that is impossible. He must keep Gove. Relations with Hunt have been sharper than expected in this campaign but he will be important. The Saj probably remains in post. I think Rudd has something to offer yet but there will be an expectation of promotions for committed leavers. Sifting through the asylum known as the ERG for the vaguely house trained and marginally competent is not a job for the faint of heart.
Boris does not give me any confidence that he will succeed, other than a possible superficial pivot with the EU to pass the WDA.
Even he must know the key to brexit is in passing the WDA
It's a simple game - you post a discussion document with typos - they complain about the typos and you thank them for spotting the mistakes while stating that as the only issue they had was a typo or three you will take their email as confirmation of the decision and start implementing it.
There are some people who have fallen for this trick every 3-7 months for the past 5 years...
So Johnson will preside over a GNAT- a government of no actual talent.
1) An increase in the available workforce reducing the need for capital investment.
2) A shift in the balance of the economy to lower productivity sectors - the carwash and coffee shop economy.
3) An increase in rules and regulations meaning the proportion of 'overhead' employees has increased.
4) ZIRP leading to the survival of zombie companies and thus a misallocation of resources.
5) An inequality of gains from previous productivity increases - if the executive oligarchy receive the benefit from increases in worker productivity but the workers don't then the workers will not be likely to look for further productivity increases.
6) Too many pointless emails being sent with too many people being copied in.
The cream of what is left are perhaps Javid, Hunt?, Cox with key roles for Leadsom, Patel, Truss, IDS, Barclay, Williamson, Mordaunt, Rudd?, Fox?, Hancock? Newcomers likely to include Ben Wallace, Steve Baker, Rishi Sunak.
However, I don't think that there is anything more important to Ireland than the border, so we have nothing to offer them. Similarly, there doesn't seem to be anything that they fear more than being left without the guarantee of the backstop, and they seem confident that a result of no deal will be the UK signing up to the backstop in desperation.
This latter belief may be one half of the decisive miscalculation that will send us over the edge.
Mostly cobblers.
Boris, PM
Javid, Chancellor
(Lord) Osborne, Foreign Secretary
Mordaunt, Home
———————————————-
Williamson, Duchy of Lancaster
Hancock, Health
Truss, Business
Patel, Northern Ireland
Leadsom, Justice
Rudd, Social Security
McVey, Education
Fallon, Defence
Kwarteng, Chief Secretary
Raab, Trade
Evans, Leader of the Lords
Nokes, Defence
Cox, Brexit
Davies (Mims), Wales
Mundell, Scotland
Lewis, Party Chair
Shapps, Housing,
Dfid, Culture, Transport...dunno.
Has anyone here disagreed with it ?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/bulletins/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfinalestimates/2016
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/carrie-symonds-it-s-such-a-relief-to-know-john-worboys-will-stay-in-prison-a3994801.html
The fact is without Boris leading it Vote Leave would not have won, had Farage been leading it it would likely have been a narrow Remain win and due to the sheer contempt for democracy of diehard Remainers in both voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and against No Deal it needs Boris to again deliver it.
Only Boris has the determination, the ruthlessness and the charisma to finally defeat the diehard Remainers and deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st. Yes if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so as a last resort so be it and if Parliament VONC him so be it too he can go to the country on a Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket with him or likely No Brexit at all with a Corbyn minority government propped up by the diehard Remainer LDs and SNP.
As for accusations of laziness had Boris wanted to coast through Oxford he could have done PPE, instead he did Classics, on the whole a tougher degree especially after the economics element of PPE is dropped.
The person who wrote that school report on Boris, Martin Hammond, was my old Headmaster but it says nothing beyond Boris was a maverick and did his own thing regardless of what the establishment expected of him.
Churchill of course had similar school reports at Harrow and was equally as unconventional as Boris at the time, indeed had PB existed in 1939 I expect there would have been plenty of pro Chamberlain and pro Halifax and pro Munich Agreement articles and plenty of anti Churchill ones
An interview with May that revealed nothing was put ahead of coverage of the Hunt/Johnson interviews. And the 'sporty weekend' ramble put netball ahead of F1 (which barely got a mention).
If familiarity breeds contempt then perhaps that charisma is a shiny veneer beneath which there's an incompetent.
If Boris is determined, why did he hide in Afghanistan rather than resign over the Heathrow decision?
If he's ruthless, why did he only leave the Cabinet when Davis jumped first?
It's a funny sort of leadership to hide from commitment, and to follow what someone else does.
So Labour winning most seats while in third or fourth in vote share is certainly possible.
See, for example, this Electoral Calculus prediction.
On the other hand, the refusal ever to deal with reality is the strategic mistake made by the cause he espouses. In the case of Ireland, to acknowledge Ireland has legitimate interests, which they decide on and which they have some leverage over. As Ireland holds a significant Brexit key, it would be sensible to try to engage Ireland as an ally rather than treat it and its interests with aggressive condescension.
He will be a truly abject PM. The only hope is that he beats George Canning's record.
Boris reminds me very much of a guy I used to know as a friend of a friend in Edinburgh in the late eighties. All bluff and mouth and no substance. Also greedy and a total stranger to the truth. That chap ended up doing a very long stretch in a South African prison I believe. Not sure how far bluff will get him in that environment.
Boris faces a different hostile environment. Can’t see Whitehall being terribly impressed with him. The privately-educated ones will look on him with disdain because they will be familiar with the character type from their schooldays. The state-educated ones (who are becoming more common) will look on him with utter contempt.
Which is why I love your idea that Boris is going to win an election. As you may have noticed during this campaign Boris always takes the easy answer - which means he has promised something or other to everyone who has asked him a question.
And if we look back to at the referendum you can see he did the same which is why Brexit won because everyone voted for their unicorn version of Brexit.
However, when we hit a general election there will be a day like yesterday's Andrew Neil debate where all his promises will be placed one after another and he will be called out on his contradictions and at that moment votes will go another way.
I think you assume that in elections people vote for the best candidate. I don't think they do - they vote for the least worst that has a chance of winning - and for a lot of people Boris means the Tories are no longer the least worst..
Rebalancing the economy helps in (2).
But we need a more in depth discussion of what sort of country and economy we are and what we want/need to be.
Its a discussion which should have started a decade ago but a trillion quid of government borrowing was used to keep things rolling along instead.
Are they traitors, anti-Democrats, liars or just utter numpties?
Many people think the government will never let nominal house prices fall and they might be right.
If so then BTL investments become very low risk.
Plenty of PBers would have backed Halifax over Churchill in 1939 and plenty would have backed Heath over Thatcher in 1975 just as they are backing Hunt over Boris rather than backing a rebel prepared to buck the consensus of the British establishment