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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson looks certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him le
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson looks certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26
One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times.
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Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.
Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x
I don't agree with the Lib Dems on a lot of things, including Brexit, but I can see myself ending up voting for them as they will be the last non-mad UK political party.
His incompetence has a limitless capacity to amaze.
Everything was going so well, and then someone tried to table an emergency motion calling for the reinstatement of Chris Williamson...
If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.
This race has been really fascinating to watch. I'm not sure if there has ever been a challenger who could have beaten Boris. If there was, I think it was Sajid Javid. And I say that as someone who wanted Leadsom. The Saj could perhaps have offered something a bit more exciting and inspiring when it came down to two, whilst still being thoroughly staunch on Brexit.
Viceroy, you're a mug. You've bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.
*OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.
It'll be like End Of Days
And like I said, if he doesn't then he and his party are finished.
Last chance saloon.
https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1144187538338471936
https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/status/1143816022404804613
To be honest it’s their own fault for being greedy and bidding too high.
Boris however did not explicitly rule out indyref2, although he said he was 'a passionate Unionist' and believed the 2014 referendum was a 'once in a generation' vote
https://www.heraldscotland.com/search/?search=SNP&topic_id=8742
Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
But in this ballot, like the referendum, I have a voice. And I will use it.
The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.
If it delivers Brexit, Deal or No Deal, it may lose some Remain voters to the LDs but it will still be the main party of the right.
Labour though if Corbynism retains control and it still refuses to commit to EUref2 or even full single market membership could well be overtaken as the main party of the centre left by the LDs
Here begins the era of the Lib Dems?
I certainly won't join the LibDems, but faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the Conservative Party seems determined to become indistinguishable from UKIP.
Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.
And given you operate your own definitions of what constitutions a true Tory (it does not include people who vote Tory regularly or are longstanding members and insist they are Tories, if they take the wrong view) and of being a remainer (it does not include those who respevt democracy now despite voting remain like yourself, unless that person is a politician who voted remain even if they have voted multiple times to leave) I am curious that you would get huffy about people being unreasonably pedantic in their interpretation of the use of survey/poll.
One cannot exercise extreme pedantry and then object to being turned against them, I thought that was a golden rule of PB.
Pleasant night to all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdxeE6Iq0_Y
Your big mistake is failing to understand that it will also be finished - in fact, in an even worse state - if it does deliver Brexit by the unthinkable route of crashing us out in chaos. It is utter madness, which no sentient government or party should even begin to contemplate. The polling support for crashing out in chaos, which you are fond of quoting, and which is based entirely on a naïve frustration with the fact that Labour and the ERG have conspired to sabotage Brexit, will disintegrate in weeks when it hits the reality of crashing out.
When it all comes crashing down the ex-Kippers will leave the Conservative Party to go back to Nigel, and blame the remaining Conservative members for being not Tory enough.
He has completely transformed the centre-right/right in this country. Not in terms of views as Tory voters have always held these view, but in terms of how they are expressed/implemented.
He's the British answer to Canada's Preston Manning who transformed right wing politics in the Dominion during the 1990s.
For everyone else outside of that bracket, we actually want conservative politics and not just social liberal guff and low tax bands.
You will bring @RochdalePioneers some relief as he battles the entity that is @TheJezziah. He will giggle and rightly so at your declarations and declamations.
Perhaps between you and @HYUFD you could draw up the rules of conservative party membership. Just some of the basics will be fine so we can begin to weed out the imposters.
But enjoy yourself while you can. It's hilarious to watch you putting your naïve trust in Boris, of all people - he's actually somewhat to the left of Cameron and of me, inasmuch as he has any political position.
But for now, national independence is the goal and he is best placed to deliver. Once completed, we can move onto our next projects. My post-Brexit priorities are grammar schools, the death penalty, foreign aid and strict immigration controls like Australia.
I look forward to pushing the party in that direction.
I take non-ideological to mean, simply, evidence based.
Take law-and-order. My view is that we want to achieve four goals:
- low levels of initial crimes comitted
- low levels of reoffending (or high levels of rehabilitation, if you prefer)
- respect for the rule of law
- good value for money
We therefore need to experiment with different approaches to achieve those goals. It might be that the correct way to achieve these is via longer sentences, in that the savings from lower levels of offending make up for increased cost of incarceration. It may mean that spending should be focused on rehabilitation in jails, because that lowers recividism rates. Non-ideological, in this case, merely reflects the fact that I don't know the answers.
And this approach should be taken in other areas, such as education. The only way to truly know what works is to experiment and see what improves outcomes, and value for money.
Ideological, in these spheres, means coming to a conclusion about what the answer is, and often ignoring all the evidence to the contrary.
If the Tories fail to deliver Brexit they could fall back to the 9% they got in the European elections with the Brexit Party on 30%+
I wrote a thread on it a while back - if someone could kindly link to it you might find it interesting
In short you are an Ultra/Ditcher. That’s part of the Conservative tradition but not the whole. @Richard_Nabavi and myself are One Nation (I’m more Whiggish than he is). @TheScreamingEagles is a Radical.
There is room for us all in the party
Now, I suppose some people may claim to be in either one of those groups disingenuously, really wanting to advance the cause of Remain. But are you saying that nobody is genuinely in one of those groups?
You are in any case missing the point. I joined the party as a schoolboy and have been with them ever since. Your description hardly fits.
In any case the more important consideration is what's good for the country. That seems to be of no significance in your analysis.
They were told where to get off.
You are seeking election and have a complete disregard for the public good. You have gone mad.
Sorry but you are simply unfit for office.
But we pledged our support for the Tories a few years ago and that pledge still binds us.