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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Old White Man Mispriced In 2020 Presidential Election – a 140/
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Old White Man Mispriced In 2020 Presidential Election – a 140/1 shot that’s surely worth a punt
So… there’s an old white man, whose 2020 Presidential election price on Betfair is wrong. Perhaps very significantly wrong.
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I too backed Pence at around 33-1 at the same time I backed Trump for the nomination around 1-2.
Pence at 150+ is a good bet.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1145637301688635392
'The UK deficit started out in 1947 at 3 percent of GDP and then immediately went into surplus, as the Attlee government worked to reduce the huge debt racked up in World War II. The surplus peaked at 6.3 percent of GDP in 1950 and then declined to a surplus of 0.9 percent GDP in 1961.
But then surpluses started to climb again reaching 7.6 percent GDP in 1970 during the Wilson government before declining sharply. The UK scored a deficit of 0.1 percent GDP in 1975 for the first time in nearly 20 years.
The UK ran a budget deficit till the end of the Thatcher years, with a peak of 2.2 percent of GDP in 1981. In the mid to late 1980s deficits declined, and went into surplus in 1989 at 1.9 percent GDP.
Deficits returned in the Major years and the ERM crisis, reaching 5.7 percent GDP in 1994. But then the deficit came down and went into surplus, maxing out at a surplus of 2.3 percent GDP in 2001.
Moderate deficits were the rule in the mid 2000s Blair years. But the deficit rocketed upwards to 6.9 percent in 2010 in response to the Crash of 2008 and the Great Recession. In the recent recovery, the budget deficit has declined to less than one percent of GDP. '
From ukpublicspending.co.uk.
Why Harris understandably has a far more positive opinion of busing than does Biden....
And as the article points out, opposing 'busing' was very much code for opposing integration:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/kamala-harris-and-busing-debate/593047/
Berkeley’s elementary school desegregation plan started in September 1968, with over one-third of the district’s 9,000 students riding buses. Unlike many cities that placed the burden of busing on black students, Berkeley implemented a two-way busing plan that involved black, white, Asian American, and Mexican American students. The plan quickly changed the racial demographics of the city’s schools. Thousand Oaks Elementary was 95 percent white and 3 percent black in 1963. When Harris started kindergarten in 1969, the Thousand Oaks was 53 percent white and 40 percent black, and in no elementary school in Berkeley did any racial group comprise more than 60 percent of the students....
As far as I can see, Berkeley remains fairly integrated - unlike many places, even in liberal California:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Unified_School_District
Berkeley's voluntary integration plan, modified slightly over the years as demographics have shifted, remains in place up to the present...
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1145641706534113282?s=21
https://twitter.com/jmackin2/status/1145658051405537280?s=21
More insane by the day. We are now seriously planning to use billions to bail out farmers and small businesses effected by a crisis we are inflicting on ourselves for no purpose whatsoever other than a likely failed effort to shut Farage up.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1145660261174579201?s=20
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145625617741860865?s=20
Boris, 2019.
This is my sort of thread!
But there is no 'moving on' after we leave. We still have to deal with the consequences.
What exactly the fuck are his advisors up to? If we want mad Brexit we'll vote for the full fat version in Boris.
£1,000bn is approximately the extent of QE, not that that was really a bailout. Or at all.
And lose.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/01/asia-pacific/industry-insiders-say-half-chinas-breeding-pigs-may-died-swine-fever-epidemic/
If Trump does want to promote Pence to bung him a pardon, the best time to withdraw on health-related grounds would be in Spring 2020, when he has the nomination already sewn up, and where he can then advise his delegates to back Pence instead.
The chances of him doing so are low but then 30/1 bet - never mind a 150/1 bet - doesn't require them to be high in order to be value.
Brexit will remain a highly salient issue - a constant presence in our political discourse - for the many years that it will take to agree the Future Relationship.
However, I do not expect this to exercise anything like the dominance over our politics that the existential question of leaving (or not) has done and is doing.
This is a big plus of the WA in my view.
Yes, YouGov did well in the EP elections - second only to Mori - but they were a long way out on the Brexit Party: more so than anyone else bar Opinium.
For me, the Brexit Party share was the crucial stat because that's the one where motivation to vote is likely to have the biggest impact. That YouGov continue to report BXP higher than anyone else suggests to me that they may well be continuing to report armchair support as voting intention.
https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/144523/mercedes-explains-painful-austria-cooling-issues
As a mark of how severely they suffered on Sunday, the Mercedes was 20kph slower than their rivals at the speed trap.
https://unherd.com/2019/07/farage-has-found-boriss-weak-spot/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
From Wiki
Poujadism flourished most vigorously in the last years of the Fourth Republic, and articulated the economic interests and grievances of shopkeepers and other proprietor-managers of small businesses facing economic and social change. The main themes of Poujadism concerned the defense of the common man against the elites.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade
May be this is a more apt comparison than with the BNP / Front Nationale, etc?
I don't remember enough of my studies of the Fifth Republic to know why it faded. Perhaps Charles de Gaulle was seen as enough of a strong/populist leader that the need for representation wasn't as strong?
It's not a sport and it's deathly dull.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Empire_Loyalists
EDIT:
From PT - Corbyn - I am not the biggest fan of his (wouldn't mind him being replaced by someone a bit brighter, frankly) but essentially I am happy to vote Labour because I support most of the policies and I share the principles underlying the policies. I think it is time for a serious attempt to tackle inequality (of both opportunity and outcome) in Britain. It will only get worse if we don't. I recognize the risk (to the economy and to the peace of mind of many people, including myself) which comes with a majority Labour government who are ideologically committed to this, but to my mind it is worth it. It passes the risk reward test.
"
More than a third of Britons avoid the news, and the majority do so because reports on Brexit make them feel too angry, sad or bored to pay attention, according to a survey.
Two years ago, roughly one in five British people claimed to sometimes or often shun news but the country has since had the highest jump in people withdrawing from following the news, according to the poll of more than 75,000 people in 38 countries, published by the University of Oxford’s Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.
When UK readers were asked what kind of news they sought to avoid, 71 per cent said Brexit coverage.
"
One third/one fifth
Just had a bit of a nasty surprise in a very trivial way.
I was reading the comments on this page where people are complaining about living in London, and I assumed the posts were from years like 2018 and 2019. But I've just noticed that I was mis-reading the year and in fact many of the posts are from 2008 and 2009.
https://whyihatelondon.wordpress.com/about/
I wonder if Brexit could have been predicted from the sheer level of bile and vituperativeness on that page?
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
No, second thoughts, I won't. The Brexit Bomb will have been diffused.