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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn plummets to record low in latest Ipsos-MORI leader sati

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  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    I certainly hope Boris will have Javid as Chancellor.

    Based on the start of QT, Truss would be way out of her depth.

    Javid looks a good bet at 7-4 for chancellor now I think ?

    Boris is 1-5 vs Hunt, so you're basically punting that the rumour is true at 5-4ish.

    Seeing as Javid was the last man standing whose votes could be used tactically to knock Gove out (Boris' main threat) and keep Hunt in, also the fact he's got great office of state experience and would be Britain's first Asian chancellor makes the rumour more likely to be true than not.
    I think the Truss rumour probably started as she was Boris' proposer but she doesn't have the gravitas needed.
    Remainer Hammond also going must be a racing certainty.

    £20 on Javid anyway.
    Nice thinking 👍
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    Yes, if the cake is not fixed, you can expand it
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    If it were proven to your satisfaction that a strict moderation policy helped, rather than harmed, their bottom line, would you be in favour?

    Yes. Though I don't think it would be proven. Twitter relies on controversy to drive traffic. Removing the controversy will result in fewer impressions/clicks and lower advertising revenue.
    Except Twitter don't remove controversy and by occasionally banning people they can even egg on the controversy, only to soon unban people afterwards.

    Its like trying to get a pan as hot as possible without letting the contents boil over.

    There's no reason to suggest they don't know exactly what they're doing.
    Yes there is, Twitter has extremely poor margins.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    While the Right have no concept of what levels of taxation the Laffer Curve is effective at.
    Yes there's a lot of good evidence actually.

    Look at Corporation Tax. Its been cut continuously by this government yet is now drawing in more revenues than it was getting before they were elected. Funny that ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    Boris has been coming up with some impressive policy announcements. Have they been carefully crafted in a smoke filled room, or like the bus-modelling nonsense did they just trip off his forked tongue?
    The smoke filled room was traditionally only caused by tobacco...
    ...and not because his pants are on fire?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Surely the issue is that the terms of service are a stupid policy that harm shareholder value by excluding half of the population. Twitter makes money from controversy, the ToS seem designed to reduce that and turn it into a liberal echo chamber. It's a shareholder/fiduciary duty issue, rather than a first amendment one IMO, the board are acting against the interests of the shareholders and serving their own liberal agenda.
    Surely this increases the controversy around Twitter, and so makes Twitter more valuable. What shareholders wouldn't like it? Most right-wingers don't promote neo-Nazis and anti-Semites.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    RobD said:

    Corbyn - not fit for Office in any circumstances

    Except perhaps the circumstance where the alternative is Boris Johnson. We may find out this autumn.
    Quite. If the choice is no deal with Boris or remain/2nd referendum with Corbyn then I'm afraid it will have to be Corbyn.
    Evidence that Corbyn will support such a move? He seems mighty reluctant to do so.
    I think he will be forced to by the weight of opinion within the party were an election to be called. Labour could not go into an election promising to implement the WDA and there are no other Brexit options available.
    My CLP, which is 80%+ pro-Remain, voted tonight to reject the motion going round CLPs instructing the leadership to back Remain, in favour of just supporting a referendum with Remain option - the majority view was to trust the leadership and accept a "Harold Wilson" free vote if that's what seemed best; the minority felt we needed to take a firm position and fight Brexit. 45 minutes of very good-humoured debate. Corbyn retains membership backing IMO, though there's a lot of frustration that the compromise position isn't being championed properly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    If it were proven to your satisfaction that a strict moderation policy helped, rather than harmed, their bottom line, would you be in favour?

    Yes. Though I don't think it would be proven. Twitter relies on controversy to drive traffic. Removing the controversy will result in fewer impressions/clicks and lower advertising revenue.
    Except Twitter don't remove controversy and by occasionally banning people they can even egg on the controversy, only to soon unban people afterwards.

    Its like trying to get a pan as hot as possible without letting the contents boil over.

    There's no reason to suggest they don't know exactly what they're doing.
    Yes there is, Twitter has extremely poor margins.
    I meant in the context of banning people who violate their TOS (even temporarily).

    I don't think their margins are due to TOS violation bans. And if advertisers walked away if Twitter didn't have TOS then their margins could be even worse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    They talk as if it is both the most important thing in the world ... and also something which will be barely noticed
    That's actually a really good point. The details or obstacles are unimportant, and yet the concept itself is of deathly importance. It is essential for democracy, but not if it is not done in the particular way they want apparently. Belief is all that matters, concern is simply fearmongering.

    And yet the strangest thing is as you describe, that any idea of difficulties (even if they can be overcome) is scoffed at, even though we need to get out so badly it is literally described as do or die.

    Bizarre. They've turned me right off Brexit, these Brexiteers - they couldn't take yes for an answer, they had to go for more. And no, arseholes like Dominic Grieve (with his latest wheeze the mask seems to be slipping a bit, and erudition does not stop someone being an arsehole) trying to derail from the other side does not excuse them.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Former Ed Miliband adviser Ayesha Hasarika on QT says she expects a general election soon as the hung Parliament will not vote for a Boris government and it would be a de facto second referendum, hard Brexit with Boris or EUref2
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    While the Right have no concept of what levels of taxation the Laffer Curve is effective at.
    Yes there's a lot of good evidence actually.

    Look at Corporation Tax. Its been cut continuously by this government yet is now drawing in more revenues than it was getting before they were elected. Funny that ...
    Yes, because more people have incorporated to dodge other taxes.

    Including yours truly!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Pizza is a vastly overrated foodstuff, generally. Very good simple stone baked Italian pizzas are a joy, sure, but not worth frothing about. Essentially it’s posh cheese on toast, a snack. There are better things to do with a gastronomic life than seek it out.

    I would walk over hot coals for a fresh buffalo mozzarella, eaten fresh on its own.

    You can see the buffalo herds just south of Paestum, which is stunning and worth a visit even if no food were available.
    Goodness, no!

    It needs a succulent beef tomato and a hint of fresh basil, otherwise the texture palls
    Not if you eat the real thing. It is a bit gamey not the bland stuff you get here.

    And San Marzano tomatoes grown in the sun and so tasting of tomato not water.

    Regardless - if you are interested in classical architecture and history, Paestum is a must see.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    I doubt it. Clarke is very popular in the constituency and has a large personal vote. But it is also a Conservative stronghold and the Lib Dems have done atrociously in the constituency in the recent past including at the last local elections in 2017. The only hold one seat in the whole county council and that is Beeston. It is certainly not fertile ground for them in spite of Clarke's personal standing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Ah yes, the Keynes Perversion. I must introduce you to Socialist Worker friends of similar mind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    Corbo is anti but only because he can use SNP and Scottish Labour MPs to override a Tory majority in England and become PM if needed and for a similar reason he opposes Welsh independence because of the inbuilt Labour majority there.

    Northern Ireland he is less bothered about losing to Irish reunification as he is close to Sinn Fein but they never take their seats unlike the DUP who do and are currently propping up the Tories.

    Are you still backing the clown to be PM?
    I am still backing Boris, yes absolutely, though clowns often have the last laugh
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    The competitive media environment should logically speaking lead to a profit-maximising level of internal controversy on media platforms, if we think markets work. Actually, it appears that the profit-maximising level of internal controversy in modern media does not need to be very high. You can have lots of Team A partisans as long as many of them generate content about Team B. Probably the most profitable set-up for Twitter would be to split off a Red Twitter from a Blue Twitter and let socialists and Republicans hang out on the one, segregated from the Democrats and Tories on the other.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Utilities are regulated. Twitter is a utility in my view.
    I don't agree that Twitter is a utility. But ignoring that for a second:

    Should elected officials' tweets be held to different standards to regular peoples'

    Because that's the situation right now.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Surely the issue is that the terms of service are a stupid policy that harm shareholder value by excluding half of the population. Twitter makes money from controversy, the ToS seem designed to reduce that and turn it into a liberal echo chamber. It's a shareholder/fiduciary duty issue, rather than a first amendment one IMO, the board are acting against the interests of the shareholders and serving their own liberal agenda.
    Well that's there problem, isn't it? If they kill off what makes Twitter work they end up irrelevant and dead.

    It certainly shouldn't be solved by the government intervening.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Utilities are regulated. Twitter is a utility in my view.
    I don't agree that Twitter is a utility. But ignoring that for a second:

    Should elected officials' tweets be held to different standards to regular peoples'

    Because that's the situation right now.
    Twitter is no more a utility than MySpace.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    EPG said:

    Surely this increases the controversy around Twitter, and so makes Twitter more valuable. What shareholders wouldn't like it? Most right-wingers don't promote neo-Nazis and anti-Semites.

    That's the problem though, the liberals that run Twitter seem happy to label half of the population as Nazis or something along those lines, this creates a sugar rush, but in the longer term excluding half of the population will mean less traffic and lower ad yields. That's for a business which is already on the back foot for both measures having turned a profit on the back of the views/click through created by Trump.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    valleyboy said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    In a likely Boris v Corbyn v Swinson general election only one of those is going to end up PM and it will almost certainly be Boris with a mandate for Brexit.

    The real question may well end up being whether Corbyn can hold off Swinson and the LDs for second place, at least in voteshare I think the LDs could overtake Labour if Labour continues like this

    How about Johnson vs Labour leader not Corbyn?

    And what will Johnson be seeking from his FTA, and what will he offer the EU in return?
    Would Johnson beat McDonnell?
    Think McD is underrated. Smart guy whatever one thinks of his politics.
    Agree entirely. Will make a good chancellor if he gets the chance. May even win over some businesses as well.
    I'm sure the three businesses that survive his purges will be very impressed!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Surely the issue is that the terms of service are a stupid policy that harm shareholder value by excluding half of the population. Twitter makes money from controversy, the ToS seem designed to reduce that and turn it into a liberal echo chamber. It's a shareholder/fiduciary duty issue, rather than a first amendment one IMO, the board are acting against the interests of the shareholders and serving their own liberal agenda.
    Well that's there problem, isn't it? If they kill off what makes Twitter work they end up irrelevant and dead.

    It certainly shouldn't be solved by the government intervening.
    Yes, I'm definitely not in favour of government regulation of private media. It's a one way ticket to state sponsored propaganda.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Daily Mail tomorrow: Boris insults the French
    That’s got to add another 10% to his poll lead , lol
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Andy Burnham lost the Mayoral reselection vote in Manchester Central tonight. He barely won it in Gorton.

    Easier wins in Wigan, Stalybridge & Hyde and Denton & Reddish.

    If I made the right calculations, 9 CLPs is the threshold to force an open selection.

    It may not bode well for Lucy Powell in Central though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Ah yes, the Keynes Perversion. I must introduce you to Socialist Worker friends of similar mind.
    As the French say, never mind whether it works in practice, does it work in theory!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    kjohnw said:

    Daily Mail tomorrow: Boris insults the French
    That’s got to add another 10% to his poll lead , lol

    Say what you like about Boris but he has the ego and personality to go shoulder to shoulder with Macron which May unfortunately was unable to do.

    With Merkel ill it seems and nearing the end of her tenure somebody needs to stand up to the French
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Andy Burnham lost the Mayoral reselection vote in Manchester Central tonight. He barely won it in Gorton.

    Easier wins in Wigan, Stalybridge & Hyde and Denton & Reddish.

    If I made the right calculations, 9 CLPs is the threshold to force an open selection.

    It may not bode well for Lucy Powell in Central though.

    I've got time for Powell and Burnham. Burnham not marxist enough for the cult ? Powell too Brexity ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2019
    Burnham won Wythenshawe & Sale East CLP comfortably tonight. Also Withington
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    Daily Mail tomorrow: Boris insults the French
    That’s got to add another 10% to his poll lead , lol

    Say what you like about Boris but he has the ego and personality to go shoulder to shoulder with Macron which May unfortunately was unable to do.

    With Merkel ill it seems and nearing the end of her tenure somebody needs to stand up to the French
    I think Boris will prove a lot of naysayers wrong and actually deliver Brexit unlike useless May
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Hunt is taking his upcoming thumping in the leadership race with good humour:

    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1144373007110025216
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    Daily Mail tomorrow: Boris insults the French
    That’s got to add another 10% to his poll lead , lol

    Say what you like about Boris but he has the ego and personality to go shoulder to shoulder with Macron which May unfortunately was unable to do.

    With Merkel ill it seems and nearing the end of her tenure somebody needs to stand up to the French
    I think Boris will prove a lot of naysayers wrong and actually deliver Brexit unlike useless May
    May negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement but Boris will actually deliver Brexit yes
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone expect a boost for the Tories in the polls when their new leader is finally chosen? I think they probably will get one, although it may be relatively small.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Sir Jony Ive, the Briton who over two decades helped turn Apple into the world's most valuable company, is leaving to set up his own venture.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Which is much better. Why exactly should anyone have to pay tens of thousands (now hundreds of thousands in many cases) for the Government to 'stamp' a transaction that is none of their damned business? A £100 flat rate should be quite sufficient.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    MANSFIELD - Sandhurst

    Mansfield Independent Forum 227
    Lab 177
    Con 71
    UKIP 56

    Ward was Lab in 2019, Ind in 2015, Lab in 2011
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    It's a tiny bit more complicated than that.

    If the UK government cuts taxes and increases spending, then the economy will grow. (Yay!) Simply aggregate demand will rise, and people have more money in their pocket, either because the government is paying them or because it is taxing them less.

    But from a growth perspective, this is a one-off benefit. The next year, unless the tax take is slashed again, the compare is of the higher base of demand. (Which is one of the reasons why the US economy is decelerating right now.)

    But the deficit is not a one off. Cutting taxes and increasing spending makes a hole that recurs year after year.

    Furthermore, expansionary budgets tend to result in worse economic imbalances. If you give everyone more money to spend in one go, then as the productive capability of the economy has not changed, the bulk of the increased demand will go on imports.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
    It has a marginal benefit as you can borrow an increased house price but not the stamp duty

    From a revenue perspective, they killed volume with the last rise so revenues tanked
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Snoop Dogg making the marijuana legalisation argument....

    https://twitter.com/PatrickBenjam/status/1144205936971735041

    In fairness I think Gazza has probably abused some of the other non marijuana drugs as well.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    It's a tiny bit more complicated than that.

    If the UK government cuts taxes and increases spending, then the economy will grow. (Yay!) Simply aggregate demand will rise, and people have more money in their pocket, either because the government is paying them or because it is taxing them less.

    But from a growth perspective, this is a one-off benefit. The next year, unless the tax take is slashed again, the compare is of the higher base of demand. (Which is one of the reasons why the US economy is decelerating right now.)

    But the deficit is not a one off. Cutting taxes and increasing spending makes a hole that recurs year after year.

    Furthermore, expansionary budgets tend to result in worse economic imbalances. If you give everyone more money to spend in one go, then as the productive capability of the economy has not changed, the bulk of the increased demand will go on imports.

    A couple of criticisms of what you wrote.

    A bigger economy yields more tax year-on-year.

    Tax cuts don't deliver more money all in one go.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
    It has a marginal benefit as you can borrow an increased house price but not the stamp duty

    From a revenue perspective, they killed volume with the last rise so revenues tanked
    Laffer Curve in action.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    It also discourages people trading down, thus making the market less efficient.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    MANSFIELD - Sandhurst

    Mansfield Independent Forum 227
    Lab 177
    Con 71
    UKIP 56

    Ward was Lab in 2019, Ind in 2015, Lab in 2011

    Independents seem to be doing well in the North midlands (Bolsover, Ashfield & Mansfield)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    It also discourages people trading down, thus making the market less efficient.
    Doesn't that mean lowering or eliminating it at lower prices and raising at the top end? The government did this and it has been fairly successful.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    It also discourages people trading down, thus making the market less efficient.
    Doesn't that mean lowering or eliminating it at lower prices and raising at the top end? The government did this and it has been fairly successful.
    I paid £8k In stamp duty. I felt like I had my arm sawn off. After only a yes for so my wife is looking at other properties!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    It's a tiny bit more complicated than that.

    If the UK government cuts taxes and increases spending, then the economy will grow. (Yay!) Simply aggregate demand will rise, and people have more money in their pocket, either because the government is paying them or because it is taxing them less.

    But from a growth perspective, this is a one-off benefit. The next year, unless the tax take is slashed again, the compare is of the higher base of demand. (Which is one of the reasons why the US economy is decelerating right now.)

    But the deficit is not a one off. Cutting taxes and increasing spending makes a hole that recurs year after year.

    Furthermore, expansionary budgets tend to result in worse economic imbalances. If you give everyone more money to spend in one go, then as the productive capability of the economy has not changed, the bulk of the increased demand will go on imports.

    What you are, I think, saying is cutting taxes is not a panacea. Nor is increasing spending. And both together, which is the "Boris Plan" is a bit reckless.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Can you find any other jailbirds to stick up for your man? Quite appropriate to find a fraudster to endorse him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:
    Mmmm... a convicted fraudster backs Boris.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone expect a boost for the Tories in the polls when their new leader is finally chosen? I think they probably will get one, although it may be relatively small.

    Yes, me. Unless they go for a GE quickly though, it will be moot. The fundamentals haven't changed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    HYUFD said:



    Ah yes, the Keynes Perversion. I must introduce you to Socialist Worker friends of similar mind.

    As the French say, never mind whether it works in practice, does it work in theory!
    :)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    edited June 2019
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    It also discourages people trading down, thus making the market less efficient.
    Doesn't that mean lowering or eliminating it at lower prices and raising at the top end? The government did this and it has been fairly successful.
    Most people want to have a home they can retire to. After all, the aim of a mortgage is that you will have paid it off in 25/30 years and by the time you're old you will own your own home.

    Stamp duty penalises those who move frequently for work and encourages people to stay where they are as long as they can. A small increase in tax revenues for a massive hit to the economy by making skilled workers far less mobile.

    To me it's an insane tax, far more insane than inheritance tax (which, after all, is only levied after you're gone).
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    He’s never really been all that clear. Sometimes he is almost neutral, while at other times he comes over full-on Better Together. Never *publicly* supported it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/07/jeremy-corbyn-backed-scottish-independence-snps-mhairi-black/

    He might be interested in Scottish affairs if they became independent. If it’s not a foreign policy issue he’s not really bothered.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited June 2019
    Wow all this money to spend with no deal .

    I never realized trashing trade with your biggest export market could deliver so many goodies.

    I’m still waiting to see which other country in the world has decided to take this course of action .

    And we wait and we wait ........

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:
    Fight, fight!

    Not sure having convicted fraudster Conrad Black in your corner is the best thing.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    nico67 said:

    Wow all this money to spend with no deal .

    I never realized trashing trade with your biggest export market could deliver so many goodies.

    I’m still waiting to see which other country in the world has decided to take this course of action .

    And we wait and we wait ........

    In a global marketplace things will correct if the fundamentals are sound, but it is a great act of self harm.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    Wow all this money to spend with no deal .

    I never realized trashing trade with your biggest export market could deliver so many goodies.

    I’m still waiting to see which other country in the world has decided to take this course of action .

    And we wait and we wait ........

    Almost every other nation in the world has decided to control their own trade policy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
    It has a marginal benefit as you can borrow an increased house price but not the stamp duty

    From a revenue perspective, they killed volume with the last rise so revenues tanked
    Laffer Curve in action.
    Laffer Curve: neoliberal mumbo-jumbo; a curve with no scale and no definition... no one can say where it peaks.

    The contention that tax take at a 100% tax rate is zero is not true since it's perfectly possible to envision a society where all the proceeds of labour and investment go to the state and every citizen's needs are fully met by the state (not a society I'd recommend but theoretically possible).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    It also discourages people trading down, thus making the market less efficient.
    Doesn't that mean lowering or eliminating it at lower prices and raising at the top end? The government did this and it has been fairly successful.
    Most people want to have a home they can retire to. After all, the aim of a mortgage is that you will have paid it off in 25/30 years and by the time you're old you will own your own home.

    Stamp duty penalises those who move frequently for work and encourages people to stay where they are as long as they can. A small increase in tax revenues for a massive hit to the economy by making skilled workers far less mobile.

    To me it's an insane tax, far more insane than inheritance tax (which, after all, is only levied after you're gone).
    Which is fair enough.
    You then have to explain where the lost revenue is to be compensated for. Cut spending? Boris is promising a splurge. Higher other taxes? No, he's promising cuts. Increase the tax-paying base? No, they want to make immigration more difficult.
    Therefore, I presume, the Tory Party is the "deficit denier" Party. A huge increase in the PSBR. What was the point of 9 years of austerity?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
    It has a marginal benefit as you can borrow an increased house price but not the stamp duty

    From a revenue perspective, they killed volume with the last rise so revenues tanked
    Laffer Curve in action.
    Laffer Curve: neoliberal mumbo-jumbo; a curve with no scale and no definition... no one can say where it peaks.

    The contention that tax take at a 100% tax rate is zero is not true since it's perfectly possible to envision a society where all the proceeds of labour and investment go to the state and every citizen's needs are fully met by the state (not a society I'd recommend but theoretically possible).
    Just because we don't have infallible perfect knowledge as to know where it peaks doesn't make it untrue.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    It also discourages people trading down, thus making the market less efficient.
    Doesn't that mean lowering or eliminating it at lower prices and raising at the top end? The government did this and it has been fairly successful.
    Most people want to have a home they can retire to. After all, the aim of a mortgage is that you will have paid it off in 25/30 years and by the time you're old you will own your own home.

    Stamp duty penalises those who move frequently for work and encourages people to stay where they are as long as they can. A small increase in tax revenues for a massive hit to the economy by making skilled workers far less mobile.

    To me it's an insane tax, far more insane than inheritance tax (which, after all, is only levied after you're gone).
    Which is fair enough.
    You then have to explain where the lost revenue is to be compensated for. Cut spending? Boris is promising a splurge. Higher other taxes? No, he's promising cuts. Increase the tax-paying base? No, they want to make immigration more difficult.
    Therefore, I presume, the Tory Party is the "deficit denier" Party. A huge increase in the PSBR. What was the point of 9 years of austerity?
    We won't be spending billions a year to the EU and in control of our own destiny we can grow our nation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
    It has a marginal benefit as you can borrow an increased house price but not the stamp duty

    From a revenue perspective, they killed volume with the last rise so revenues tanked
    Laffer Curve in action.
    Laffer Curve: neoliberal mumbo-jumbo; a curve with no scale and no definition... no one can say where it peaks.

    The contention that tax take at a 100% tax rate is zero is not true since it's perfectly possible to envision a society where all the proceeds of labour and investment go to the state and every citizen's needs are fully met by the state (not a society I'd recommend but theoretically possible).
    Just because we don't have infallible perfect knowledge as to know where it peaks doesn't make it untrue.
    Empirical evidence does though.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Laffer Curve: neoliberal mumbo-jumbo; a curve with no scale and no definition... no one can say where it peaks.

    The economic modellers are pretty certain they have a ballpark on that - iirc something like 48% for the UK upper rate. Not a lot of difference +- 5% around that though.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Wow all this money to spend with no deal .

    I never realized trashing trade with your biggest export market could deliver so many goodies.

    I’m still waiting to see which other country in the world has decided to take this course of action .

    And we wait and we wait ........

    Almost every other nation in the world has decided to control their own trade policy.
    You mean by pulling out of an agreement with its biggest market . No country in history has done this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited June 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.
    It has a marginal benefit as you can borrow an increased house price but not the stamp duty

    From a revenue perspective, they killed volume with the last rise so revenues tanked
    Laffer Curve in action.
    Laffer Curve: neoliberal mumbo-jumbo; a curve with no scale and no definition... no one can say where it peaks.

    The contention that tax take at a 100% tax rate is zero is not true since it's perfectly possible to envision a society where all the proceeds of labour and investment go to the state and every citizen's needs are fully met by the state (not a society I'd recommend but theoretically possible).
    Just because we don't have infallible perfect knowledge as to know where it peaks doesn't make it untrue.
    Empirical evidence does though.
    I thought its existence wasn’t in question. Only the shape was?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Wow all this money to spend with no deal .

    I never realized trashing trade with your biggest export market could deliver so many goodies.

    I’m still waiting to see which other country in the world has decided to take this course of action .

    And we wait and we wait ........

    Almost every other nation in the world has decided to control their own trade policy.
    You mean by pulling out of an agreement with its biggest market . No country in history has done this.
    Independence of the Dominions?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Empirical evidence does though.

    Indeed and empirical evidence demonstrates it is a real effect. As demonstrated by corporation tax take being higher now than it was a decade ago despite a lower percentage rate.

    And that's without thinking about the other tax takes that are higher too as a consequence.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    blueblue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
    Anyone who wants to buy a house hates stamp duty. Nice populist move from Boris - more please!
    Price goes up to reflect the lower duty.., (although you can finance against house value not tax)
    Stamp duty is dead money up front.

    Plus it penalises people who move more frequently, eg for work. Is moving for work or other reasons something we should seek to be punishing?
    Don’t misunderstand me: I think it’s a bad tax that’s been poorly implemented.

    But (a) the Laffer curve refers to income taxes not transaction taxes and (b) prices will go up as stamp duty falls

    My biggest issue is the impact on labour mobility
    Stamp duty has a depressive effect on house prices. Moving to reduce or eliminate it won't have the desired outcome of increasing home ownership.


    Laffer Curve: neoliberal mumbo-jumbo; a curve with no scale and no definition... no one can say where it peaks.

    The contention that tax take at a 100% tax rate is zero is not true since it's perfectly possible to envision a society where all the proceeds of labour and investment go to the state and every citizen's needs are fully met by the state (not a society I'd recommend but theoretically possible).
    Just because we don't have infallible perfect knowledge as to know where it peaks doesn't make it untrue.
    Empirical evidence does though.
    I thought its existence wasn’t in question. Only the shape was?
    Of course. One needs to keep the argument very simple when debating with those who believe cut taxes leads to automatically increased revenue under any and all conditions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Wow all this money to spend with no deal .

    I never realized trashing trade with your biggest export market could deliver so many goodies.

    I’m still waiting to see which other country in the world has decided to take this course of action .

    And we wait and we wait ........

    Almost every other nation in the world has decided to control their own trade policy.
    You mean by pulling out of an agreement with its biggest market . No country in history has done this.
    Virtually every nation in history that has gained independence has done precisely that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Of course. One needs to keep the argument very simple when debating with those who believe cut taxes leads to automatically increased revenue under any and all conditions.

    Thankfully I don't think anybody here said that and neither does the theory.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Empirical evidence does though.

    Indeed and empirical evidence demonstrates it is a real effect. As demonstrated by corporation tax take being higher now than it was a decade ago despite a lower percentage rate.

    And that's without thinking about the other tax takes that are higher too as a consequence.
    Explain Kansas State finances 2012- present.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Empirical evidence does though.

    Indeed and empirical evidence demonstrates it is a real effect. As demonstrated by corporation tax take being higher now than it was a decade ago despite a lower percentage rate.

    And that's without thinking about the other tax takes that are higher too as a consequence.
    Explain Kansas State finances 2012- present.
    No one said it was in the same place for each country. :p
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    @RobD
    Apologies. Am trying to argue with someone who apparently believes cutting taxes automatically and inevitably leads to higher revenues. Best to keep it simple.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    @RobD
    Apologies. Am trying to argue with someone who apparently believes cutting taxes automatically and inevitably leads to higher revenues. Best to keep it simple.

    Isn’t their argument that the rate should be set at the peak?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Empirical evidence does though.

    Indeed and empirical evidence demonstrates it is a real effect. As demonstrated by corporation tax take being higher now than it was a decade ago despite a lower percentage rate.

    And that's without thinking about the other tax takes that are higher too as a consequence.
    Explain Kansas State finances 2012- present.
    A failed extreme experiment that included cutting tax rates to 0% for many with a mammoth loophole.

    Last I checked the Laffer Curve doesn't advise either a 0% tax rate or a 100% one.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    @RobD
    Apologies. Am trying to argue with someone who apparently believes cutting taxes automatically and inevitably leads to higher revenues. Best to keep it simple.

    "I don't think anybody here said that and neither does the theory."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    @RobD
    Apologies. Am trying to argue with someone who apparently believes cutting taxes automatically and inevitably leads to higher revenues. Best to keep it simple.

    Isn’t their argument that the rate should be set at the peak?
    Of course, you can be to the left of the peak or the right of the peak.

    Setting the tax rate at 0% like in Kansas will put you well to the left of the peak!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    HYUFD said:
    Fight, fight!

    Not sure having convicted fraudster Conrad Black in your corner is the best thing.
    But! But! But!

    He was pardoned!

    By Trump.......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone expect a boost for the Tories in the polls when their new leader is finally chosen? I think they probably will get one, although it may be relatively small.

    Yes, me. Unless they go for a GE quickly though, it will be moot. The fundamentals haven't changed.
    I agree. On the one hand it's difficult to believe the Tories would want to have an election this year, but at the same time it seems quite likely.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Characteristically enough, the incompetent Lab/Lib Welsh Government has handed this spiv money

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/27/seven-investors-apply-to-put-gavin-woodhouse-firms-into-administration

    "I’m delighted that the Welsh Government has been able to support such innovative and high quality projects in north Wales through our funding support schemes," said the Minister has he handed the dosh over.

    Hard to say.

    Is the Lab/Lib Welsh Government more failing than Grayling? Or is it just anti-Welsh, actively seeking to pauperise Wales still further and destroy what little the Welsh have?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Biden is a mess.

    Kamala Harris winning by keeping it kind-of snappy and not looking too mad.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Bernie getting a good reception, on my quick flick through anyway... I put that down to young people being noisy and turning up though rather than anything too substantial.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NYT Fact Checking the Dem Debate:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/us/politics/factcheck-democratic-debate.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

    So far, mostly telling the truth.....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Biden's trying to do this laundry list of little policies thing, which firstly doesn't help in this big chaotic thing where you need strong, memorable lines, and secondly he's clearly having a hard time remembering what the policies are.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    That was a very powerful moment, felt that one. Very nicely done, wonder if it will be more of a hit to Biden than a boost to her though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited June 2019
    I like this Marianne Williamson person, not a lot of people can say "I'm going to harness love" and make it sound sinister
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited June 2019
    Kamala says her priority is what wakes you at 3am in the morning. Everyone's hearing that and thinking, "my cat???"
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Biden is even fumbling his rehearsed closing statement.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I wonder if Biden will drop out of hist own accord, he doesn't feel like he's got it in him.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    That was a very powerful moment, felt that one. Very nicely done, wonder if it will be more of a hit to Biden than a boost to her though.
    https://twitter.com/NewYorker/status/1144440390151483392
This discussion has been closed.