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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn plummets to record low in latest Ipsos-MORI leader sati

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    stodge said:

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris will win a majority large enough to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if the Commons as is likely backs a VONC in him as PM to stop the possibility of No Deal (which Boris does not want anyway, he wants a GB FTA but would still leave in the table).

    I see no polling evidence of a guaranteed majority for a Boris Johnson-led Government which has not delivered on Brexit.

    So, moving forwards (or backwards), Johnson takes over on the afternoon of July 24th and at present the Commons rises for the summer recess the following day so would a VoNC be possible - presumably but se the majority to pass May's WA which would enable him to press ahead with a PD including the much vaunted FTA.

    I can see Farage and the TBP attacking that both on grounds of credibility and because they would see leaving without a WA as preferable to leaving with May's WA. Meanwhile what of Labour which has plenty of its own problems not least the unelectability of its leader or the confusion over its own Brexit position.

    If the polls don't look good in September, what then? There will come a point when it's too late and Johnson will either have to pivot fully to No Deal or seek a further extension which signs the death warrant arguably of the Conservative Party. He'll have to take No Deal even if some of his own MPs resign the whip or defect.

    Then we have the VoNC in mid October which would then pass and the endgame would begin.
    Well nothing is ever guaranteed but given the current hung parliament clearly will not deliver Brexit Leave voters will rally around Boris to give him the majority he needs to deliver Brexit with the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st with the Deal or with No Deal. I suspect Boris loses a VONC anyway within a week or 2 of taking office, Corbyn will table it and the opposition parties will all support it as will Gyimah, Grieve, Greening and Lee most likely so we then go to a late summer or early autumn general election where Boris can get the mandate he seeks and voters annoyed at another election forced by a Commons that refuses to deliver the Brexit they voted for will flock to Boris in droves.

    Even if Boris gets to 34% and a majority of 118 the Brexit Party still get 9% with Yougov so the fanatics for whom nothing but No Deal will do will be there but Boris can ignore them
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    MaxPB said:

    Ugh, thick crust pizza. How, American.

    Chiacgo deep dish pizza is the worst of the worst....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    stodge said:

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris will win a majority large enough to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if the Commons as is likely backs a VONC in him as PM to stop the possibility of No Deal (which Boris does not want anyway, he wants a GB FTA but would still leave in the table).

    I see no polling evidence of a guaranteed majority for a Boris Johnson-led Government which has not delivered on Brexit.

    So, moving forwards (or backwards), Johnson takes over on the afternoon of July 24th and at present the Commons rises for the summer recess the following day so would a VoNC be possible - presumably but would it have enough votes ? I'm less convinced.

    Johnson's first problem won't be constructing a new Cabinet but trying to sell the new line given we know there are at least a dozen MPs prepared to vote against their own Government to prevent a No Deal Brexit.

    Parliament is due to return on September 5th and it's possible if the polls looks promising Johnson could go for an election on say October 3rd or 10th. The problem for me isn't getting the house to support the idea (unless Labour decides to rebel en bloc against Corbyn) but the central message which presumably would be "the UK leaves the EU on 31/10" - fine, no problem there but if he won a majority would Boris use the majority to pass May's WA which would enable him to press ahead with a PD including the much vaunted FTA.

    I can see Farage and the TBP attacking that both on grounds of credibility and because they would see leaving without a WA as preferable to leaving with May's WA. Meanwhile what of Labour which has plenty of its own problems not least the unelectability of its leader or the confusion over its own Brexit position.

    If the polls don't look good in September, what then? There will come a point when it's too late and Johnson will either have to pivot fully to No Deal or seek a further extension which signs the death warrant arguably of the Conservative Party. He'll have to take No Deal even if some of his own MPs resign the whip or defect.

    Then we have the VoNC in mid October which would then pass and the endgame would begin.
    This is the big problem of the current parliament, the country needs Brexit to happen. But opposition parties see the existential threat to the Tories if it is not delivered. Why would they support anything that allows them off the hook?
    They won't but if Boris is not able to deliver Brexit the voters will elect PM Farage to do it instead and PM Farage really does mean No Deal
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    justin124 said:

    Owen Jones in the Guardian has come out strongly in favour of a second Referendum. Seems to be the way the wind is blowing.

    What does he say about Williamson?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Ugh, thick crust pizza. How, American.

    Chiacgo deep dish pizza is the worst of the worst....
    That's not even pizza.

    Tbf, the ingredients are good, and it tastes nice, but the base is way too bready and there's too much cheese.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    PB is my Twitter :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    justin124 said:

    Owen Jones in the Guardian has come out strongly in favour of a second Referendum. Seems to be the way the wind is blowing.

    I feel like our entire politics has been treading water for at least 4 months, which is when Labour should have gone full on referendum and remain, and Tories full on no deal. When it was clear the WA would not pass it was inevitable the support bases would move that way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    SCOTUS rules 5-4 against the citizenship question, Roberts the key justice against Trump.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I wonder how many will join this noble and principled stand. I'm sure it will help encourage environmental issues enormously.

    An environmental campaigner who has appeared in court over her refusal to pay council tax has said she is willing to go to prison for her cause.

    Mother-of-two Imogen May told Exeter magistrates she was refusing to pay as an environmental protest.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-48786207
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    BoJo called the French turds?

    Well, that's Eagles vote in the bag then.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    I wonder how many will join this noble and principled stand. I'm sure it will help encourage environmental issues enormously.

    An environmental campaigner who has appeared in court over her refusal to pay council tax has said she is willing to go to prison for her cause.

    Mother-of-two Imogen May told Exeter magistrates she was refusing to pay as an environmental protest.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-48786207

    What a nutter. Doesn't council tax help pay for services like recycling?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I like the idea of Spam on Pizza. Or Pek.

    The day before I started my month without meat I didn't have a steak, I had Pek.

    BTW, nearly finished a month without carbonated soft drinks. The Fentimans dandelion and burdock awaits...

    Until one goes to the US, it’s pretty easy (but a good thing). My Badoit habit is out of control mind you...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    SCOTUS rules 5-4 against the citizenship question, Roberts the key justice against Trump.

    They ruled 5-4 in favour of gerrymandering in another decision.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder how many will join this noble and principled stand. I'm sure it will help encourage environmental issues enormously.

    An environmental campaigner who has appeared in court over her refusal to pay council tax has said she is willing to go to prison for her cause.

    Mother-of-two Imogen May told Exeter magistrates she was refusing to pay as an environmental protest.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-48786207

    What a nutter. Doesn't council tax help pay for services like recycling?
    Yeah but, you know, the cause needs martyrs and such.

    In all honesty protesting can indeed get things moving sometimes, and councils have made some big moves on green issues to most normal people's view of things.

    But other times people don't actually seem to care about an issue as much as appearing to care about an issue I suspect.

    I'd call that virtue signalling but some people object to the phrase, even though I'd use the same term to describe people like the ERG spartans who want to appear to care about Brexit while voting against it repeatedly.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    RobD said:

    Corbyn - not fit for Office in any circumstances

    Except perhaps the circumstance where the alternative is Boris Johnson. We may find out this autumn.
    Quite. If the choice is no deal with Boris or remain/2nd referendum with Corbyn then I'm afraid it will have to be Corbyn.
    Evidence that Corbyn will support such a move? He seems mighty reluctant to do so.
    I think he will be forced to by the weight of opinion within the party were an election to be called. Labour could not go into an election promising to implement the WDA and there are no other Brexit options available.
    You are a number of posters here and I claim your “how would I behave if I were someone that I’m not” prize.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Floater said:

    BoJo called the French turds?

    Well, that's Eagles vote in the bag then.

    I am shocked the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation originally censored that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    It has to tick over in the right places though. He's operating on wafer thin majorities in the rust belt. It's not good if New York bankers are drawing ever larger bonuses if mom and pop businesses out in the Mid West are folding.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Ah so this was the main event of last night's Dem debate :

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1144177713869017089
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    PB is my Twitter :)
    PB is my newsfeed.

    I'd have no idea who has died wihout PB.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Floater said:

    BoJo called the French turds?

    Well, that's Eagles vote in the bag then.

    I am shocked the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation originally censored that.
    You are a contributor to The Daily Telegraph’s online comments. Have a free TV licence,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Seems like a silly error to make.

    It's been a common critique of the Trump administration - at least from their supporters - that many of the sweeping conservative changes it has tried to achieve have been undermined by ham-handed implementation. Environmental and workplace deregulation and tougher immigration and border policies have been tied up in the courts because officials in charge were either sloppy or unaware of proper procedures.

    Much to the delight of the president's political opponents, the citizenship question can be added to this list.

    It is well within the power of a presidential administration to ask about citizenship status, a majority of the justices wrote, but it needs to be clear and up-front about why. The Trump team wasn't.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48791272
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder how many will join this noble and principled stand. I'm sure it will help encourage environmental issues enormously.

    An environmental campaigner who has appeared in court over her refusal to pay council tax has said she is willing to go to prison for her cause.

    Mother-of-two Imogen May told Exeter magistrates she was refusing to pay as an environmental protest.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-48786207

    What a nutter. Doesn't council tax help pay for services like recycling?
    Recycling? Don't you mean sending plastic to China or third world nations for them to deal with? :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit and Trump will be re elected next year winning both the popular vote and electoral college, possibly against Warren and the squealing and wailing from left liberals on both sides of the Atlantic will be a sight to behold
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit
    Can I have some of what you're smoking? :lol:
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    In a likely Boris v Corbyn v Swinson general election only one of those is going to end up PM and it will almost certainly be Boris with a mandate for Brexit.

    The real question may well end up being whether Corbyn can hold off Swinson and the LDs for second place, at least in voteshare I think the LDs could overtake Labour if Labour continues like this

    How about Johnson vs Labour leader not Corbyn?

    And what will Johnson be seeking from his FTA, and what will he offer the EU in return?
    Would Johnson beat McDonnell?
    Think McD is underrated. Smart guy whatever one thinks of his politics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    matt said:

    Floater said:

    BoJo called the French turds?

    Well, that's Eagles vote in the bag then.

    I am shocked the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation originally censored that.
    You are a contributor to The Daily Telegraph’s online comments. Have a free TV licence,
    I refuse to pay the telly tax, because I'm a freeman on the land.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit
    Can I have some of what you're smoking? :lol:
    I was wrong on the previous thread.

    Six ounces sold at market rates in Shanghai would be plenty to clear all the National Debt and leave a massive sovereign wealth fund.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    That is probably right, but it probably won't, so he probably won't be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    dixiedean said:
    It's terrifying. This is the country whose orbit Brexit is meant to draw us ever closer to.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    It has to tick over in the right places though. He's operating on wafer thin majorities in the rust belt. It's not good if New York bankers are drawing ever larger bonuses if mom and pop businesses out in the Mid West are folding.
    Nah, its a culture war. As long as no one takes away their god given right to carry a machine gun ito a school, going broke is nothing. It is like Brexit here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    What is the person who shot her being charged with???
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I’ve seen Italians put potatoes on pizza. If they can do that, you can allow me a scattering of edible bromeliads.

    Actually it’s a very good pizza made in the type of oven I’m confident you’d approve of. Though not, admittedly, in Naples.
    They can't have been Italians. Not real ones, anyway. Probably German ones from somewhere up north......
    Occupied Tyrol? :lol:
    If Südtirol's nationality is contested* then it would be an argument with Austria not Germany.


    *Hint: It's not, unless you consider Cornwall's nationality as contested.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit and Trump will be re elected next year winning both the popular vote and electoral college, possibly against Warren and the squealing and wailing from left liberals on both sides of the Atlantic will be a sight to behold
    You give the impression of hating liberals. What have they ever done to you?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    The law sounds like it is nuts, but how can she be charged with manslaughter and the shooter with nothing?

    (A) if there is manslaughter then there is unlawful death
    (B) they know who the shooter is
    (C) the only defence I can think of is justifiable self defence... but 5 times?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
    I'll start saving up .........

    (Fulham, though.....)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit and Trump will be re elected next year winning both the popular vote and electoral college, possibly against Warren and the squealing and wailing from left liberals on both sides of the Atlantic will be a sight to behold
    And Boris and Trump will do a lot of harm, which will take many years to recover from.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    What is the person who shot her being charged with???
    Not being charged
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD - out of interest, why did you vote Remain?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    What is the person who shot her being charged with???
    Apparently, nothing.

    Sometimes there is more to these stories that the headline and brief write up, and I really hope that is the case.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    eristdoof said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I’ve seen Italians put potatoes on pizza. If they can do that, you can allow me a scattering of edible bromeliads.

    Actually it’s a very good pizza made in the type of oven I’m confident you’d approve of. Though not, admittedly, in Naples.
    They can't have been Italians. Not real ones, anyway. Probably German ones from somewhere up north......
    Occupied Tyrol? :lol:
    If Südtirol's nationality is contested* then it would be an argument with Austria not Germany.


    *Hint: It's not, unless you consider Cornwall's nationality as contested.
    Austria was originally called "German Austria" when the Habsburg Empire collapsed in 1918.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
    I'll start saving up .........

    (Fulham, though.....)
    L'Antica in Hampstead is the best pizza I've had outside of Italy (and my own kitchen).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Charles said:



    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    The law sounds like it is nuts, but how can she be charged with manslaughter and the shooter with nothing?

    (A) if there is manslaughter then there is unlawful death
    (B) they know who the shooter is
    (C) the only defence I can think of is justifiable self defence... but 5 times?
    We should have given these Colonials representation in Parliament back in 1775, if only to keep them sane.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    What is the person who shot her being charged with???
    No charges.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex. said:

    HYUFD - out of interest, why did you vote Remain?

    Because the leader of the Conservative Party told him to
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Floater said:
    Vaz is set against the decision taken by Jim, his industrial washing machine salesman alter ego.
    Vaz gets away with being a complete nob because he's got a posher accent than the blimmin' queen.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
    I'll start saving up .........

    (Fulham, though.....)
    West Chelsea?
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    _Anazina_ said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    In a likely Boris v Corbyn v Swinson general election only one of those is going to end up PM and it will almost certainly be Boris with a mandate for Brexit.

    The real question may well end up being whether Corbyn can hold off Swinson and the LDs for second place, at least in voteshare I think the LDs could overtake Labour if Labour continues like this

    How about Johnson vs Labour leader not Corbyn?

    And what will Johnson be seeking from his FTA, and what will he offer the EU in return?
    Would Johnson beat McDonnell?
    Think McD is underrated. Smart guy whatever one thinks of his politics.
    Agree entirely. Will make a good chancellor if he gets the chance. May even win over some businesses as well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Utilities are regulated. Twitter is a utility in my view.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    A pregnant woman from Alabama has been charged with manslaughter after she was shot in the stomach during an argument, killing the fetus...

    “The investigation showed that the only true victim in this was the unborn baby,’’ said Pleasant Grove police Lt Danny Reid following the shooting, reported AL.com in December. “It was the mother of the child who initiated and continued the fight which resulted in the death of her own unborn baby.”

    WHAT?!
    What is the person who shot her being charged with???
    It was self-defense apparently, which made the mother guilty of felony-manslaughter apparently.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit and Trump will be re elected next year winning both the popular vote and electoral college, possibly against Warren and the squealing and wailing from left liberals on both sides of the Atlantic will be a sight to behold
    You give the impression of hating liberals. What have they ever done to you?
    Liberals are just smarter, better looking and have more fun. Haters gonna hate.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pizza is a vastly overrated foodstuff, generally. Very good simple stone baked Italian pizzas are a joy, sure, but not worth frothing about. Essentially it’s posh cheese on toast, a snack. There are better things to do with a gastronomic life than seek it out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
    I'll start saving up .........

    (Fulham, though.....)
    West Chelsea?
    /
    Chelsea FC's nearest station? Fulham Broadway :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Surely the issue is that the terms of service are a stupid policy that harm shareholder value by excluding half of the population. Twitter makes money from controversy, the ToS seem designed to reduce that and turn it into a liberal echo chamber. It's a shareholder/fiduciary duty issue, rather than a first amendment one IMO, the board are acting against the interests of the shareholders and serving their own liberal agenda.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
    I'll start saving up .........

    (Fulham, though.....)
    West Chelsea?
    That's worse.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    PeterC said:

    The only way that Boris is the Tories' saviour is if he plays a Nixon in China role. He will need to deliver a soft Brexit that causes no disruption to people's lives yet also brings finality.

    The ultras on both sides will continue to froth, but the prize will be a great diminution in the salience of Brexit as an issue - the great majority will be relieved that the years of going round in circles are over. This is in Labour's best interest too.

    The obvious electoral threat to the Tories comes from the Brexit party; but there is also a leaking of moderate votes to the LibDems, representing the business, professional and middle class part of a Tory winning coalition. Today's polling bears this out.

    Boris will need to deliver Brexit and then draw both of these strands together more effectively tha Corbyn might do for Labour. But as champion of hard Brexit, fishing in a pool of around a third of the electorate, he is doomed.

    You mean, Boris needs to - errr - pass Mrs May's deal?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    valleyboy said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    In a likely Boris v Corbyn v Swinson general election only one of those is going to end up PM and it will almost certainly be Boris with a mandate for Brexit.

    The real question may well end up being whether Corbyn can hold off Swinson and the LDs for second place, at least in voteshare I think the LDs could overtake Labour if Labour continues like this

    How about Johnson vs Labour leader not Corbyn?

    And what will Johnson be seeking from his FTA, and what will he offer the EU in return?
    Would Johnson beat McDonnell?
    Think McD is underrated. Smart guy whatever one thinks of his politics.
    Agree entirely. Will make a good chancellor if he gets the chance. May even win over some businesses as well.
    He’s a remarkably studious guy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    alex. said:

    HYUFD - out of interest, why did you vote Remain?

    I have always been opposed to the Euro and had that been a requirement of membership I would have voted Leave but I felt the membership status we had with the opt outs we had at the time was a reasonable position to be in.

    However I also respect the Leave vote and given the EU's refusal to give any significant concessions since to try and keep us in we must leave. I would still prefer to leave with a Deal rather than No Deal and indeed I voted Conservative rather than Brexit Party in the European elections because of that but on a forced choice of No Deal or Revoke I would now choose No Deal if that is the only way to deliver Brexit
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    _Anazina_ said:

    Pizza is a vastly overrated foodstuff, generally. Very good simple stone baked Italian pizzas are a joy, sure, but not worth frothing about. Essentially it’s posh cheese on toast, a snack. There are better things to do with a gastronomic life than seek it out.

    I would walk over hot coals for a fresh buffalo mozzarella, eaten fresh on its own.

    You can see the buffalo herds just south of Paestum, which is stunning and worth a visit even if no food were available.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    Yes, Boris will win an overall majority this year with a mandate for Brexit and Trump will be re elected next year winning both the popular vote and electoral college, possibly against Warren and the squealing and wailing from left liberals on both sides of the Atlantic will be a sight to behold
    You give the impression of hating liberals. What have they ever done to you?
    I don't hate liberals, indeed some of my family vote LD or Green and I am sure in the fullness of time we will get a left liberal government again but at the moment the mood of the electorate is for populist conservatism (look at the trend across much of the globe with recent wins for Brexit, Trump, Salvini, Bolsonaro, Modi etc) and if that wins then the fact it will bring 'squealing and wailing from left liberals' will be a statement of fact, not one of hatred
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    I certainly hope Boris will have Javid as Chancellor.

    Based on the start of QT, Truss would be way out of her depth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    Generally he is in favour of decolonisation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    “Every defeat of the British state is a victory for all of us,” said Diane Abbott.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, I'm about to have what is billed as America's best pizza. My expectations are very low.

    The best pizza in Los Angeles is Jon & Vinny's.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    He’s never really been all that clear. Sometimes he is almost neutral, while at other times he comes over full-on Better Together. Never *publicly* supported it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/07/jeremy-corbyn-backed-scottish-independence-snps-mhairi-black/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TGOHF said:
    The air of unreality around these plans is shocking really.

    It's as if they're assuming that a No Deal exit will have no effect on the economy which will need some careful handling and that there will be plenty of money for all these goodies without wondering how we're going to earn our living having just torn up our existing trade relations with nothing to replace them.

    Sometimes I wonder if Brexiteers really understand what it means to leave the EU. They talk as if it is both the most important thing in the world (nonsense about getting our freedom back) and also something which will be barely noticed and we can all pretend that we're in the glory days of Thatcher in the mid-1980's.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    Corbo is anti but only because he can use SNP and Scottish Labour MPs to override a Tory majority in England and become PM if needed and for a similar reason he opposes Welsh independence because of the inbuilt Labour majority there.

    Northern Ireland he is less bothered about losing to Irish reunification as he is close to Sinn Fein but they never take their seats unlike the DUP who do and are currently propping up the Tories.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited June 2019
    MikeL said:

    I certainly hope Boris will have Javid as Chancellor.

    Based on the start of QT, Truss would be way out of her depth.

    Javid looks a good bet at 7-4 for chancellor now I think ?

    Boris is 1-5 vs Hunt, so you're basically punting that the rumour is true at 5-4ish.

    Seeing as Javid was the last man standing whose votes could be used tactically to knock Gove out (Boris' main threat) and keep Hunt in, also the fact he's got great office of state experience and would be Britain's first Asian chancellor makes the rumour more likely to be true than not.
    I think the Truss rumour probably started as she was Boris' proposer but she doesn't have the gravitas needed.
    Remainer Hammond also going must be a racing certainty.

    £20 on Javid anyway.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Surely the issue is that the terms of service are a stupid policy that harm shareholder value by excluding half of the population. Twitter makes money from controversy, the ToS seem designed to reduce that and turn it into a liberal echo chamber. It's a shareholder/fiduciary duty issue, rather than a first amendment one IMO, the board are acting against the interests of the shareholders and serving their own liberal agenda.
    If it were proven to your satisfaction that a strict moderation policy helped, rather than harmed, their bottom line, would you be in favour?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    Boris has been coming up with some impressive policy announcements. Have they been carefully crafted in a smoke filled room, or like the bus-modelling nonsense did they just trip off his forked tongue?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    Why, is he also in favour of workers owning the means of production?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    As true as that all is, the more surprising thing is how narrow and unimaginative a tax cut that is. If he really wants to make tax cuts (and I think it’s on balance unwise), he’d be better off chopping income tax. What happened to that plan?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I hope that tonight’s debate is sponsored by Ovaltine.


    Oh, not you too. You'll be putting bloody chocolate in your coffee next.....
    I had a Hawaiian pizza tonight.

    I REGRET NOTHING.
    I despair, I really do.

    First it's bloody Brexit. Then Corbyn. And Johnson.

    But the absolute limit is people putting bits of syrupy fruit on a pizza, a dish which should only be eaten in Naples, freshly cooked with proper buffalo mozzarella and San Marzano tomatoes and olive oil and, if we're going for capitals, NOTHING ELSE.

    Followed by a strong espresso and a small limoncello from Caffe Gambrinus. And a walk by the sea with a loved one.

    How can that not be more tempting than whatever cheesy cardboard offering you were chomping?
    I fear I will enter your bad books, as though I generally have great deference toward tradition, adding more stuff to such a dish seems a clear improvement to me, even though I disagree with that particular example.
    Nah: the dish is perfect as it is. Adding more stuff just ruins it. Italian food is so good because, when made simply with really excellent ingredients, it is not overfussed with. Too many tastes just make a mess.

    But I don't have bad books and you are not in them. I just sigh and wonder what I can do to persuade you, short of actually taking you all to bella Napoli and showing you.
    There’s a decent Neapolitan pizza place in Fulham. You could take us all there 😄
    I'll start saving up .........

    (Fulham, though.....)
    West Chelsea?
    That's worse.
    An estate agent once pitched me on Saint Reatham. Took me a while to figure out...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Bless.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Call it the Trump rule.

    Twitter will attach a special label to tweets by major political figures if their content violates the site’s rules but the deleting them is not in the public interest, the company said Thursday.

    Tweets affected by the new measure will remain on the site, but will not appear in searches or be recommended to users through any of Twitter’s algorithmic channels. When they do appear in a user’s timeline, they will be hidden behind an interstitial reading: “The Twitter Rules about abusive behavior apply to this Tweet. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain available.” Users can then click through to view the tweet if they desire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jun/27/twitter-warning-labels-tweets-violate-site-rules

    I’m uncomfortable with this

    An elected politician should be able to say what they want and the voters judge them accordingly
    I think the issue is that other peoples' tweets were being taken down for violating Twitter's terms of service, but famous people (i.e. Trump) weren't been held to the same rules.

    This, of course, is a halfway house that satisfies no-one. The tweets are still there (which they wouldn't be if you or I tweeted them), but they're being somewhat hidden.

    Twitter is, of course, free to have whatever Terms of Service they like. Their site, their rules. Perhaps the best way around this would be to have a machine learning algorithm that checked (without human intervension) if a tweet breached Terms of Service. And if it did, it told the Tweeter, your Tweet was not published for the following reason, please change it and resubmit.
    Surely the issue is that the terms of service are a stupid policy that harm shareholder value by excluding half of the population. Twitter makes money from controversy, the ToS seem designed to reduce that and turn it into a liberal echo chamber. It's a shareholder/fiduciary duty issue, rather than a first amendment one IMO, the board are acting against the interests of the shareholders and serving their own liberal agenda.
    If it were proven to your satisfaction that a strict moderation policy helped, rather than harmed, their bottom line, would you be in favour?
    Yes. Though I don't think it would be proven. Twitter relies on controversy to drive traffic. Removing the controversy will result in fewer impressions/clicks and lower advertising revenue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Pulpstar said:

    These err half censored Trump tweets are going to create the most almighty streisand effect when Twitter does it.

    Another glass of petrol onto the culture war bonfire I guess. As a 2020 Democrat backer I'm not that happy about this - just gives the whole twitter is anti-right legs.

    My view has been so long as the economy continues to tick over Trump will be re-elected.
    If you look at when Presidents don't get re-elected, it's usually because the economy is in the shitter.

    1992 - US recession.
    1980 - US recession.
    1976 - Watergate, and just after a US recession...

    And if you look at times when the party holding the Presidency changed (i.e 2000 and 2008), they were also around the time of recessions/stock market crashes/financial crises.

    Now, we're 16 months away from a US election. The indicators (PMI and bond yields are both negative), we're also now losing the year-over-year benefits of the tax cuts.

    That being said... bond yields have predicted 7 of the last 3 recessions, so it's by no means a sure thing. I'd say a recession is about 50:50, and if one strikes, then Trump will need to be very lucky in his opponent to be reelected.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Pizza is a vastly overrated foodstuff, generally. Very good simple stone baked Italian pizzas are a joy, sure, but not worth frothing about. Essentially it’s posh cheese on toast, a snack. There are better things to do with a gastronomic life than seek it out.

    I would walk over hot coals for a fresh buffalo mozzarella, eaten fresh on its own.

    You can see the buffalo herds just south of Paestum, which is stunning and worth a visit even if no food were available.
    Goodness, no!

    It needs a succulent beef tomato and a hint of fresh basil, otherwise the texture palls
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    And campaign for a Yes vote ...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    Boris has been coming up with some impressive policy announcements. Have they been carefully crafted in a smoke filled room, or like the bus-modelling nonsense did they just trip off his forked tongue?
    The smoke filled room was traditionally only caused by tobacco...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Pizza is a vastly overrated foodstuff, generally. Very good simple stone baked Italian pizzas are a joy, sure, but not worth frothing about. Essentially it’s posh cheese on toast, a snack. There are better things to do with a gastronomic life than seek it out.

    I would walk over hot coals for a fresh buffalo mozzarella, eaten fresh on its own.

    You can see the buffalo herds just south of Paestum, which is stunning and worth a visit even if no food were available.
    Goodness, no!

    It needs a succulent beef tomato and a hint of fresh basil, otherwise the texture palls
    *San Marzano tomatoes.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    HYUFD said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    Does anyone know whether Corbo is pro, or anti, Scots independence?
    Corbo is anti but only because he can use SNP and Scottish Labour MPs to override a Tory majority in England and become PM if needed and for a similar reason he opposes Welsh independence because of the inbuilt Labour majority there.

    Northern Ireland he is less bothered about losing to Irish reunification as he is close to Sinn Fein but they never take their seats unlike the DUP who do and are currently propping up the Tories.

    Are you still backing the clown to be PM?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    Why, is he also in favour of workers owning the means of production?
    What means of production? or do you just mean gig economy "self employment"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    Scottish independence: Dugdale says Corbyn could allow indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790775

    And campaign for a Yes vote ...
    He won't, without SNP MPs Corbyn has a much diminished chance of becoming PM and almost no chance of becoming PM at Westminster without relying on the LDs who he can't stand
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    If it were proven to your satisfaction that a strict moderation policy helped, rather than harmed, their bottom line, would you be in favour?

    Yes. Though I don't think it would be proven. Twitter relies on controversy to drive traffic. Removing the controversy will result in fewer impressions/clicks and lower advertising revenue.
    Except Twitter don't remove controversy and by occasionally banning people they can even egg on the controversy, only to soon unban people afterwards.

    Its like trying to get a pan as hot as possible without letting the contents boil over.

    There's no reason to suggest they don't know exactly what they're doing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Great: just what we need. Another house price surge followed by a crash.

    Do the Tories ever think that an economy can be something more than people buying and selling overpriced terraced houses to each other ?

    Morons.
    So Boris is promising tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for the struggling, no stamp duty, 20 000 new police officers, more nurses, teachers and doctors, more spending on everything under the sun.
    After Brexit, we'll all be employees of the State, and paying no tax.
    Remind me who is the Marxist?
    It is the tax cuts that will grow the economy to raise the revenues to pay for the promises
    Lefties still haven't heard of the Laffer Curve. Probably never will.
    While the Right have no concept of what levels of taxation the Laffer Curve is effective at.
This discussion has been closed.