What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.
Johnson’s pitch is his character. Hunt is fighting on the territory his opponent has always chosen to fight on.
There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't know )
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
Does that keep him as PM?
Possibly.
I suspect Parliament will not try and replace him with Ken Clarke but instruct him to sign up to a/the customs union and/or membership of the single market.
It's quite an ask and quite specific - how would it do that?
There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't know )
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
Does that keep him as PM?
Possibly.
I suspect Parliament will not try and replace him with Ken Clarke but instruct him to sign up to a/the customs union and/or membership of the single market.
It's quite an ask and quite specific - how would it do that?
Like what happened in March/April, Parliament will seize control of the Parliamentary agenda.
After all Boris Johnson said No Deal was Project Fear, they will be merely holding his feet to the fire.
There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't know )
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
Yes I also think his plan was to go for no deal and then come over all churchillian and present himself as the national saviour rescuing us from the horrors inflicted by the EU. But the events of the past week have convinced me that he does not have the cojones required to do this and is much more likely to run into the broom cupboard and collapse in a whimpering heap.
Mr. Eagles, the upside, such as it is, is that if the blues lose, as seems probable, they can blame it on the candidate and not the party collectively.
Mr. Divvie, possible. Could be a combination of that and realising he's promised jam tomorrow, even though the jam will be ready next year at the earliest.
This election might end up rivalling the ‘Don’t vote for the Wizard, vote for the Lizard’ campaign.
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.
If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.
What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.
Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.
I have never been persuaded that the next election will be Brexit dominated in the way assumed by the commentariat. 2017 certainly wasn't - despite that being May's justification for calling it. Other issues will come to the fore with a likely receptive audience - long sick to death of Brexit.
I’ve got to admire an optimist.
The Tories and Labour would still prefer not to talk about it. Which is I think why Farage is keeping his powder dry. He doesn't trust BJ, and he doesn't trust that a pre-Brexit GE will resolve anything. What he does know (although it's a huge risk) is that IF he can carry his EU election troops over to a GE, he can win it and put the country out of its misery...
There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't know )
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
Does that keep him as PM?
Possibly.
I suspect Parliament will not try and replace him with Ken Clarke but instruct him to sign up to a/the customs union and/or membership of the single market.
That is genius! Parliament makes him, by default the Churchillian statesman he claime to be. He really is a clever old soul!
Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.
Bottler Boris cannot go for a snap election without two thirds of Parliament consenting.
I thought you might prefer ‘Jelly Johnson’ for the double entendre ?
Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.
Bottler Boris cannot go for a snap election without two thirds of Parliament consenting.
I thought you might prefer ‘Jelly Johnson’ for the double entendre ?
Nah, I did toy with using the headline 'BJ sucks' yesterday.
Mr. Nick, the referendum was eminently winnable. The dreadful campaigns and apparent complacency from Cameron were telling factors. If he'd insisted the official Leave campaign had to draw up a basic plan, Remain would've won. If the warnings hadn't been so overblown they undermined more credible downsides to leaving, Remain would've won.
Mind you, May could've easily won a landslide, but she decided to run the worst election campaign of modern times. In both cases, one can make a good argument for the decision being sound, but the execution being lamentable.
[I'd argue the reneging on a referendum by Labour is a critical moment too].
I assume Cadwalladr has evidence to back up her assertions, so she must be feeling very confident of winning the case being bought against her by Banks.
Mr. Nick, the referendum was eminently winnable. The dreadful campaigns and apparent complacency from Cameron were telling factors. If he'd insisted the official Leave campaign had to draw up a basic plan, Remain would've won. If the warnings hadn't been so overblown they undermined more credible downsides to leaving, Remain would've won.
Mind you, May could've easily won a landslide, but she decided to run the worst election campaign of modern times. In both cases, one can make a good argument for the decision being sound, but the execution being lamentable.
[I'd argue the reneging on a referendum by Labour is a critical moment too].
When was the last time the Tories managed to mount a good campaign?
Major in 1992, I guess. Since then they’ve all been risible. You could make a case for 2010, but Cameron was expected to win and lost out first to Cleggmania and then by Brown shoring up his base. 2015 was only won at the LibDems’ expense and they’d achieved that long before the GE.
Mr. B2, Cameron was damaged by the debates helping Clegg a lot. His 2010 campaign gained over 100 seats, I think, and his 2015 result exceeded all expectations.
I think they have spent the last six months explaining it. The no dealers are obsessed with winning, the impact on the economy is neither here nor there.
Mr. Nick, the referendum was eminently winnable. The dreadful campaigns and apparent complacency from Cameron were telling factors. If he'd insisted the official Leave campaign had to draw up a basic plan, Remain would've won. If the warnings hadn't been so overblown they undermined more credible downsides to leaving, Remain would've won.
Mind you, May could've easily won a landslide, but she decided to run the worst election campaign of modern times. In both cases, one can make a good argument for the decision being sound, but the execution being lamentable.
[I'd argue the reneging on a referendum by Labour is a critical moment too].
Possibly, we can all speculate and if people had acted differently things would have been different. But the fact is that Cameron's referendum plan turned out to be one of the most spectacular failures in British political history. It achieved the polar opposite of Cameron's desired outcome for the EU, the UK and the Conservative Party.
Mr. B2, Cameron was damaged by the debates helping Clegg a lot. His 2010 campaign gained over 100 seats, I think, and his 2015 result exceeded all expectations.
In 2010 we’d just been through almost unprecedented financial crash. Weighing up the campaign, as distinct from the circumstances of the election, I don’t recall the 2010 Tory one being regarded as good?
Mr. Nick, the referendum was eminently winnable. The dreadful campaigns and apparent complacency from Cameron were telling factors. If he'd insisted the official Leave campaign had to draw up a basic plan, Remain would've won. If the warnings hadn't been so overblown they undermined more credible downsides to leaving, Remain would've won.
Mind you, May could've easily won a landslide, but she decided to run the worst election campaign of modern times. In both cases, one can make a good argument for the decision being sound, but the execution being lamentable.
[I'd argue the reneging on a referendum by Labour is a critical moment too].
When was the last time the Tories managed to mount a good campaign?
Major in 1992, I guess. Since then they’ve all been risible. You could make a case for 2010, but Cameron was expected to win and lost out first to Cleggmania and then by Brown shoring up his base. 2015 was only won at the LibDems’ expense and they’d achieved that long before the GE.
Not sure the Tory campaign in 1992 was that good - much more a case of Labour messing up. Had Kinnock not lost control at Sheffield, a 2017 type result would have been likely - Tories largest party needing Ulster Unionist support to continue in office.
Mr. B2, the Lib Dems did very well from the debate coverage, which was overwhelming. Brown also performed reasonably in those. The debates were pretty much the campaign.
The result was certainly good for the Conservatives.
Blimey. But, of course, Max once endorsed Tony Blair, so his intervention can be easily dismissed by the Boris faithful.
I suppose that's the point - while he may or may not be going through a process of demolition by the press and Hunt, the faithful remain faithful. Must be whittling down, though, you would have thought.
'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
I think only nerds pick up on the Brown link (now over a decade old) - what it has going for it is memorability, red wine on a sofa and browsing the 2-for-1 wine section of Tesco - all very current.
'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
I think only nerds pick up on the Brown link (now over a decade old) - what it has going for it is memorability, red wine on a sofa and browsing the 2-for-1 wine section of Tesco - all very current.
In any case the experience of Theresa May in 2017 vindicated Brown
Imagine them trying to run a General Election campaign like this.
Potentially next month. It would run into the buffers quicker than you can say 'bring back Theresa'.
I imagine Lynton Crosby is keen to prove that the 2017 disaster wasn't his fault, but he could end up as the common denominator between two failed General Election campaigns.
Apart from expecting preferment, why an accomplished army officer like Mercer would tie himself to a calamitous liability like Boris is quite beyond me.
Mr. B2, Cameron was damaged by the debates helping Clegg a lot. His 2010 campaign gained over 100 seats, I think, and his 2015 result exceeded all expectations.
In 2010 we’d just been through almost unprecedented financial crash. Weighing up the campaign, as distinct from the circumstances of the election, I don’t recall the 2010 Tory one being regarded as good?
The Tories were never likley to form a Conservative majority in 2010. They simply had to gain too many seats off Labour to target them all on the scale to be effective. Add to this the LD MPs who were still an opposition party and relatively popular and you can see the Tories were unlikley to get an overall majority.
All 6 Labour Assembly Members re-standing managed to get re-selected in the end. Somes losses in and there but they all went over 2/3 threshold required.
Lewisham Deptford, West Ham, East Ham, Camberwell & Peckham and Ealing Central are the CLPs who voted against automatic re-selection of their incumbent AM. Streatham vote against their AM was ruled invalid because the CLP chair can't follow the guidelines (different wording on the ballot but I guess they could have lived with that. However, they also used different cut off deadline in who was entitled to vote)
What all this shows is that the new leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have a majority for his central policy come the autumn, and may not have a majority this July full stop.
If the latter is the case, then Mrs May will have to recommend that the Queen asks Jeremy Corbyn whether he can assemble a majority instead. If not, it’s election time.
No wonder Britain’s top civil servant has put the current Prime Minister on notice that her biggest decision may be still to come.
All 6 Labour Assembly Members re-standing managed to get re-selected in the end. Somes losses in and there but they all went over 2/3 threshold required.
Lewisham Deptford, West Ham, East Ham, Camberwell & Peckham and Ealing Central are the CLPs who voted against automatic re-selection of their incumbent AM. Streatham vote against their AM was ruled invalid because the CLP chair can't follow the guidelines (different wording on the ballot but I guess they could have lived with that. However, they also used different cut off deadline in who was entitled to vote)
What happens to the MPs is rather more interesting. Who cares who the assembly members are?
What all this shows is that the new leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have a majority for his central policy come the autumn, and may not have a majority this July full stop.
If the latter is the case, then Mrs May will have to recommend that the Queen asks Jeremy Corbyn whether he can assemble a majority instead. If not, it’s election time.
No wonder Britain’s top civil servant has put the current Prime Minister on notice that her biggest decision may be still to come.
Surely the takeaway from this is that nominating the person isn’t going to be done straight away - not least because of the need for a new agreement with the DUP - and therefore Parliament will go into recess first?
I will send 7 hours in KLM's Schiphol lounge on Friday due to changes in flight times - I really don't see what the problem is (for those that care the table I use is already reserved)
So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.
Rory Stewart has already made clear he won't serve under Boris.
I think they have spent the last six months explaining it. The no dealers are obsessed with winning, the impact on the economy is neither here nor there.
What nonsense from an often decent and admirable journalist. Brixit is damaging people's reason. It is a sane centrist Tory government that has gone AWOL, one that could do TM's deal or Norway for Now. A centre right revolt against the ludicrous extreme right is not a vote for the Marxist left.
Mr and Mrs Hunt and their offspring were in the back with us peasants on a flight from Tokyo Haneida on Easter Monday. He sat in the row in front of me. I had a seat on the aisle (in the middle row). Across the aisle Mr Hunt had an aisle seat and his wife had a window seat. Like me he was watching 'Green Book'.
Everyone knew who he was and left him alone. He carried out his family business with little fuss and expected, and got no preferential treatment from the ANA cabin staff.
So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.
Rory Stewart has already made clear he won't serve under Boris.
Which now looks a very prudent and principled position to have taken.
Mr and Mrs Hunt and their offspring were in the back with us peasants on a flight from Tokyo Haneida on Easter Monday. He sat in the row in front of me. I had a seat on the aisle (in the middle row). Across the aisle Mr Hunt had an aisle seat and his wife had a window seat. Like me he was watching 'Green Book'.
Everyone knew who he was and left him alone. He carried out his family business with little fuss and expected, and got no preferential treatment from the ANA cabin staff.
To me, this is evidence of how sad our politicians have become.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain
After all Boris Johnson said No Deal was Project Fear, they will be merely holding his feet to the fire.
Oh and 'Massive Johnson pulls out'
The man is really, REALLY asking for trouble,
Mind you, May could've easily won a landslide, but she decided to run the worst election campaign of modern times. In both cases, one can make a good argument for the decision being sound, but the execution being lamentable.
[I'd argue the reneging on a referendum by Labour is a critical moment too].
Maybe Gavin Williamson should be PM *ducks*
Is Boris trying to lose?
Major in 1992, I guess. Since then they’ve all been risible. You could make a case for 2010, but Cameron was expected to win and lost out first to Cleggmania and then by Brown shoring up his base. 2015 was only won at the LibDems’ expense and they’d achieved that long before the GE.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1143187351243546630
There is an opportunity for the new PM to appear before the House before the summer recess. That is the intention of the Gov't.
https://twitter.com/antanddec/status/1143156497347727360
“a contempt for truth”
“his graver vice is cowardice”
“contempt for rules, precedent, order and stability”
“of weak character”
“a cavorting charlatan”
“Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him”
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1090277565607170050
The result was certainly good for the Conservatives.
https://twitter.com/eyespymp/status/1143194057918820352
Lewisham Deptford, West Ham, East Ham, Camberwell & Peckham and Ealing Central are the CLPs who voted against automatic re-selection of their incumbent AM. Streatham vote against their AM was ruled invalid because the CLP chair can't follow the guidelines (different wording on the ballot but I guess they could have lived with that. However, they also used different cut off deadline in who was entitled to vote)
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1143131895078760450
If you use Waterstone's Click and Collect, you can have a copy tomorrow. Conversely there is a Foyles in Waterloo and you can get it via this: https://www.foyles.co.uk/witem/biography/finest-years-churchill-as-warlord-1940,max-hastings-9780007263684
What all this shows is that the new leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have a majority for his central policy come the autumn, and may not have a majority this July full stop.
If the latter is the case, then Mrs May will have to recommend that the Queen asks Jeremy Corbyn whether he can assemble a majority instead. If not, it’s election time.
No wonder Britain’s top civil servant has put the current Prime Minister on notice that her biggest decision may be still to come.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-may-s-last-decision-could-be-her-most-important-a4174446.html
That is a funny line.
https://twitter.com/JulieOwenMoylan/status/1143106836897456134
Everyone knew who he was and left him alone. He carried out his family business with little fuss and expected, and got no preferential treatment from the ANA cabin staff.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/04/jeremy-hunt-last-cameroon
One may peruse to determine the nature of the inferior competition ....
Coalition years took a coalition but the coalition had a comfortable majority.
At the next general election the voting public are liable to feel cornered and desperate. They may also panic. Who knows what they will do?