Marina Hyde’s description of Boris as looking like “what would happen if you started making Margaret Rutherford out of papier-mache but got bored halfway through” is trending on Twitter.
Corbyn is of course completely right, and looks statesmanlike. If even our Government is not 100% certain Iran attacked these tankers, why are we banging the war drum once again? When did it become the thing to act, or threaten to act, without evidence? Hunt's tweet in response is weaselly - it's basically an admission that we should be 'backing' America (Lord knows why) without looking too hard at the evidence. And how British interests in the region are served by invading Iran remains a mystery best known to Jeremy Hunt.
Jezza’s problem is that he previously chose Putin’s theory on Salisbury over the Uk security services.
And previously Gerry Adams, the PLO etc etc . He probably hopes it wasn’t an American false flag - deep down he’s really hoping it was Mossad.
Who else could it be, other than Mossad?
You would think Mossad would be keeping a low profile after Lockerbie, 9-11, the Manchester arena attacks etc.
Why Mossad ? The Saudis have the means and a more convincing motive. Not to mention a demonstrable lack of any petty moral qualms.
Of course Iran could be responsible, but I’d want much, much more convincing evidence before acting on that claim.
Witness the extent to which Tory candidates are falling over themselves to ignore, and implicitly reject, the need for sound public finances – something which will have long-lasting political effects as it becomes extremely hard for Tories to defend the austerity programme having just undermined the rationale for it, and hence becomes very easy for Labour to claim that the cuts were ‘ideological’.
Given that there hasn't been any austerity and that the cuts were ideological does that surprise anyone ?
Why should they be impartial? They interviewed two girls who had been subjected to a homophobic attack on a bus and they asked how they felt about someone who had referred to 'bum boys' becomming PM? Under the circumstances it would have been remiss not to ask. But I've told you before too much Guido turns you blind.
Off to cut my lawn before the rain starts again, but could I point out that few here have been saying that Boris cannot become Prime Minister, what they have been saying is that he is manifestly unsuited to the post. Apart from possibly a sense of humour and name recognition no one seems to have a positive view of him.
Of course, there is the possibility that Boris may actually clear the low bar of expectations, at least in the short term. He has such a track record of mendacity and incompetence that merely not tripping over Larry the Cat on his way into Number 10 will be greeted as a triumph.
No, that’s what they say now he’s going to win. Before that was obvious they said lay him in the betting because the price is wrong.
I'll put my hand up as one who said he would and could never become PM.
Voters, eh.
You also said that we could never leave the EU without the backstop as agreed by May.
To be fair, when it comes to the Middle East John Bolton is no more trustworthy than Jeremy Corbyn. Both have very transparent agendas. Bolton wants to destroy Iran. Corbyn wants to destroy Israel. Both are dangerous zealots.
So it turns out I'm actually still a member of the Lib Dems and get a vote in the upcoming contest. I joined sometime after the brexit vote and had thought it had lapsed but guess its on autorenew!
In terms of how the candidates come across I'm leaning towards Ed Davey, who seems a better communicator than jo Swinson, but very much undecided. Also worried that Swinson as a Scottish lib dem will end up having to divert energy fighting the SNP. But she does seem to be the one who could maybe organise some sort of tactical vote alliance for the next GE whereas Davey has seemed more tribal so far.
To be fair, when it comes to the Middle East John Bolton is no more trustworthy than Jeremy Corbyn. Both have very transparent agendas. Bolton wants to destroy Iran. Corbyn wants to destroy Israel. Both are dangerous zealots.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
Mr. Isam, that's quite a story. If we had another by-election I wonder what the odds would be.
If someone really did destroy 1,000 votes, they're very stupid to brag about it.
That quote can be read in two ways. That they burnt 1000+ Brexit Party votes. Or that they burnt 1000+ votes on the instruction of the Brexit Party.
It cannot be read in two ways, you can find the screenshot online. Though why the man made the admission, even on a private group, is a mystery.
He made the claim because he thought it would be funny, or so that it could be shared as proof that the election was stolen.
The idea that someone would be part of a team competent enough to destroy one thousand votes for a specific party without being caught and then stupid enough to brag about it online afterwards, does not pass scrutiny.
We are not going to get "no deal". Whoever is Tory leader will get another 2 years (at least) of status quo. He will be able to say we are out of the EU - the nutters will moan but most will say thats all OK the sky hasn't fallen in after all.
Of course in the longer term will be a mess -we will be rule takers with no influence but that will be the result of a badly thought out referendum.
Ultimately correct in my view, but there could be a lot of mess in the meantime. Also I don't think people realise what rule taking means. We will be denied an opinion on what happens to us. Despite the rhetoric that's not the situation now.
People certainly realise what rule taking means as its how they have to live their lives.
And it is what the UK has had to do while it has been in the EU.
There is however a big difference between being bound by collective decision-making (EU membership) and not turning up to to the meetings where those decisions are made, but nevertheless bound by them (soft and only realistic Brexit)
Obviously the last favourite before the winning line is most likely to win, but if you've been playing the next leader markets for long, you will have laid not just Boris but also Michael Gove, George Osborne and David Davis, and possibly JRM and Jeremy Hunt as well. In the next PM market, probably Jeremy Corbyn.
In this thread, some have mentioned backing Boris at 8/1 and 16/1. Obviously someone else was favourite on those occasions.
The advice to lay the favourite, both here and on Love Island, does not mean favourites never win, so much as the betting will fluctuate. The point is your winnings on Gove, Osborne and Corbyn make up for what you lose on Boris, even if he wins, which we'd expect the last favourite to do.
If the mods and editors are reading, perhaps we might try to persuade Shadsy or Tissue Price to talk about how politics and reality markets are approached by the professional layers.
When in the mood, an on form noel is a cracking interview.
F***ng student debater, f***ing captain fishy craggy old f***ing donkey, f*** off," he says of the Labour leader, describing shadow home secretary Diane Abbott as 'the face of f***ing buffoonery' in the same breath.
They talk pipe-smoking communist nonsense, do you know what I mean? I think the role of any politician in the world is to be forward thinking, and modern, and contemporary - looking forward
It is just incredible that a man who regularly sides with our enemies and doubts are own security services is even remotely in with a chance of being PM.
Obviously the last favourite before the winning line is most likely to win, but if you've been playing the next leader markets for long, you will have laid not just Boris but also Michael Gove, George Osborne and David Davis, and possibly JRM and Jeremy Hunt as well. In the next PM market, probably Jeremy Corbyn.
In this thread, some have mentioned backing Boris at 8/1 and 16/1. Obviously someone else was favourite on those occasions.
The advice to lay the favourite, both here and on Love Island, does not mean favourites never win, so much as the betting will fluctuate. The point is your winnings on Gove, Osborne and Corbyn make up for what you lose on Boris, even if he wins, which we'd expect the last favourite to do.
If the mods and editors are reading, perhaps we might try to persuade Shadsy or Tissue Price to talk about how politics and reality markets are approached by the professional layers.
Sadly all the theory goes tits up when the professional layer becomes the favourite.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
I refer to my previous post about crazy non-Boris odds.
The interview with Heywood on TWIW is worth a listen in this respect. He sees the hustings as key, some of which will be broadcast. A lot hangs on whether the (many) “not Boris” folks within the third party can unite around a credible alternative.
It is just incredible that a man who regularly sides with our enemies and doubts are own security services is even remotely in with a chance of being PM.
It isn't once the Corbynistas took over the Labour Party one of our two main parties, if centre left voters insist on voting Corbyn Labour over say the LDs or Greens they cannot complain
Obviously the last favourite before the winning line is most likely to win, but if you've been playing the next leader markets for long, you will have laid not just Boris but also Michael Gove, George Osborne and David Davis, and possibly JRM and Jeremy Hunt as well. In the next PM market, probably Jeremy Corbyn.
In this thread, some have mentioned backing Boris at 8/1 and 16/1. Obviously someone else was favourite on those occasions.
The advice to lay the favourite, both here and on Love Island, does not mean favourites never win, so much as the betting will fluctuate. The point is your winnings on Gove, Osborne and Corbyn make up for what you lose on Boris, even if he wins, which we'd expect the last favourite to do.
If the mods and editors are reading, perhaps we might try to persuade Shadsy or Tissue Price to talk about how politics and reality markets are approached by the professional layers.
We are not going to get "no deal". Whoever is Tory leader will get another 2 years (at least) of status quo. He will be able to say we are out of the EU - the nutters will moan but most will say thats all OK the sky hasn't fallen in after all.
Of course in the longer term will be a mess -we will be rule takers with no influence but that will be the result of a badly thought out referendum.
Ultimately correct in my view, but there could be a lot of mess in the meantime. Also I don't think people realise what rule taking means. We will be denied an opinion on what happens to us. Despite the rhetoric that's not the situation now.
People certainly realise what rule taking means as its how they have to live their lives.
And it is what the UK has had to do while it has been in the EU.
There is however a big difference between being bound by collective decision-making (EU membership) and not turning up to to the meetings where those decisions are made, but nevertheless bound by them (soft and only realistic Brexit)
People will find out the difference.
The UK has a vote in the EU in the same way as a Conservative supporter has a vote in Liverpool.
It is just incredible that a man who regularly sides with our enemies and doubts are own security services is even remotely in with a chance of being PM.
It isn't once the Corbynistas took over the Labour Party one of our two main parties, if centre left voters insist on voting Corbyn Labour over say the LDs or Greens they cannot complain
Agree. At least the centre left has some choice. Lab, Green, LD, SNP, PC The centre right is perfectly decent position to maintain but at the moment is having a nervous breakdown and no-one but the Tories seriously represents them. But of course if the Tories get their act together the split on the centre left is an absolute open goal for them. And this could change quite quickly.
We are not going to get "no deal". Whoever is Tory leader will get another 2 years (at least) of status quo. He will be able to say we are out of the EU - the nutters will moan but most will say thats all OK the sky hasn't fallen in after all.
Of course in the longer term will be a mess -we will be rule takers with no influence but that will be the result of a badly thought out referendum.
Ultimately correct in my view, but there could be a lot of mess in the meantime. Also I don't think people realise what rule taking means. We will be denied an opinion on what happens to us. Despite the rhetoric that's not the situation now.
People certainly realise what rule taking means as its how they have to live their lives.
And it is what the UK has had to do while it has been in the EU.
There is however a big difference between being bound by collective decision-making (EU membership) and not turning up to to the meetings where those decisions are made, but nevertheless bound by them (soft and only realistic Brexit)
People will find out the difference.
The UK has a vote in the EU in the same way as a Conservative supporter has a vote in Liverpool.
Please tell me you are not quoting Mason in a positive way.
He just needs to be laughed at whilst pointing out the many many flaws in his arguments
He's right that Iran's enemies could have staged this. As could Republican Guard.
Right...........
On the balance of probabilities and the available evidence what seems more likely to you.
On balance of probabilities, elements within Iran e.g. Guard. But it is pretty murky, messed up part of the world, so it is probability rather than certainty I would say.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
Whoever is Chancellor in a Johnson administration has the potential to the most powerful in our history: a Cheney to Johnson’s Bush.
I have a couple of quid on Truss for CoE.
Just praying it isn't Mogg. We would be on the gold standard, imperial preference and issuing guineas by end of first week.
At least if he reversed decimalisation there would be something to be thankful for.
This is making me want JRM for Chancellor.
Angels, groats, farthings, florins, crowns, half crowns, gold sovereigns, silver threepenny bits and income tax a temporary measure to see of Napoleon. Bring it on. His window tax would hit those shiny new skyscrapers in the city rather hard though, but they would save a lot on the hearth tax.
It is just incredible that a man who regularly sides with our enemies and doubts are own security services is even remotely in with a chance of being PM.
It isn't once the Corbynistas took over the Labour Party one of our two main parties, if centre left voters insist on voting Corbyn Labour over say the LDs or Greens they cannot complain
Agree. At least the centre left has some choice. Lab, Green, LD, SNP, PC The centre right is perfectly decent position to maintain but at the moment is having a nervous breakdown and no-one but the Tories seriously represents them. But of course if the Tories get their act together the split on the centre left is an absolute open goal for them. And this could change quite quickly.
Indeed but that of course depends on the Tories ending the split on the centre right and winning back voters from the Brexit Party
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
You assume there’s only one direction the Conservatives can go from here. That assumption is incorrect.
Whoever is Chancellor in a Johnson administration has the potential to the most powerful in our history: a Cheney to Johnson’s Bush.
I have a couple of quid on Truss for CoE.
Just praying it isn't Mogg. We would be on the gold standard, imperial preference and issuing guineas by end of first week.
At least if he reversed decimalisation there would be something to be thankful for.
This is making me want JRM for Chancellor.
Angels, groats, farthings, florins, crowns, half crowns, gold sovereigns, silver threepenny bits and income tax a temporary measure to see of Napoleon. Bring it on. His window tax would hit those shiny new skyscrapers in the city rather hard though, but they would save a lot on the hearth tax.
Inflation rules out most of those unless we rebaseline the pound.
To be fair, when it comes to the Middle East John Bolton is no more trustworthy than Jeremy Corbyn. Both have very transparent agendas. Bolton wants to destroy Iran. Corbyn wants to destroy Israel. Both are dangerous zealots.
With the obvious difference being that Persia is a backwards jihadist state that exports terrorism, and Israel is a developed, democratic country part of the western alliance.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
That would be a poison pill for him. But he might be forced to take it by Parliament. It wouldn’t be any less lethal for that.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
The EU wanted to offer May extension to January 2020 before but Macron vetoed it and would likely do so again
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
That would be a poison pill for him. But he might be forced to take it by Parliament. It wouldn’t be any less lethal for that.
I think an element of the support for BoJo is that you won’t have to wait long to find out if he’s the messiah or crap.
No wasting 3 years on May this time around. 3 months or he’s done.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
If the latter, I would expect it the WTO-based arrangements in place on 1st November to turn out to be relatively temporary, as there will be every incentive on the EU and most of its member states to quickly find something to replace them with. A new agreement will be reached in 6 months at most and probably less.
We are not going to get "no deal". Whoever is Tory leader will get another 2 years (at least) of status quo. He will be able to say we are out of the EU - the nutters will moan but most will say thats all OK the sky hasn't fallen in after all.
Of course in the longer term will be a mess -we will be rule takers with no influence but that will be the result of a badly thought out referendum.
Ultimately correct in my view, but there could be a lot of mess in the meantime. Also I don't think people realise what rule taking means. We will be denied an opinion on what happens to us. Despite the rhetoric that's not the situation now.
People certainly realise what rule taking means as its how they have to live their lives.
And it is what the UK has had to do while it has been in the EU.
There is however a big difference between being bound by collective decision-making (EU membership) and not turning up to to the meetings where those decisions are made, but nevertheless bound by them (soft and only realistic Brexit)
People will find out the difference.
The UK has a vote in the EU in the same way as a Conservative supporter has a vote in Liverpool.
The UK as EU member has a weighted vote out of 28 such votes. The EU works on consensus of member states so that vote is close to a veto. If the UK doesn't get its way on one vote it can horse trade for another, possibly more important decision to it. It can also campaign to get the decision reversed.
None of these means of influence are available to the UK after Brexit, but it will still be bound by decisions made by others. As people voted Leave to "take control" that will be a big problem.
Norway doesn't actually debate substantive issues in parliament that are EEA scope rules. There's no point. They have to do what they are told.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
That would be a poison pill for him. But he might be forced to take it by Parliament. It wouldn’t be any less lethal for that.
The failure of the latest Cooper Letwin amendment makes it much less likely the Commons can impose its will on the executive to force further extension
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
That would be a poison pill for him. But he might be forced to take it by Parliament. It wouldn’t be any less lethal for that.
It explains that at least 2 to 3 months is needed for ratification of any refined deal he might agree and they expect him to announce that at Conservative conference after touring European capitals over the summer. They recognise there's only a few days in October to agree something and it's not realistic.
On their part they want to know he has the numbers in the Commons to pass it first else they are wasting their time.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
The EU wanted to offer May extension to January 2020 before but Macron vetoed it and would likely do so again
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
You assume there’s only one direction the Conservatives can go from here. That assumption is incorrect.
It is possible more Tories could move to the Brexit Party and Farage could enter No 10 as a result if Brexit is not delivered, that is correct
Haven't yet looked at the comments but thanks @david_herdson for a good article.
What baffles me is why on earth Mr B Johnson wishes to become PM. Ambition, delusions of grandeur maybe, but he must know he isn't likely to be much good at it. He might make a decent stab at it with a superbly competent team around him, but where are they going to come from? How long will it be before he gets fed up & what will he do then? Resign? Just go AWOL?
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
The EU wanted to offer May extension to January 2020 before but Macron vetoed it and would likely do so again
'It's ridiculously hyperbolic to call Farage a Fascist!'
Also the Brexiteers.
'Ooh look, the less dumb Gallagher sez obstructing Brexit is Fascism!'
Except he says he would have voted remain........
And your point is? The person gleefully tweeting Noel's words of wisdom is dweeby, bespectacled Brexiteer and convicted electoral law breaker Darren Grimes.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
They really don't want us to leave without an agreement, even if it just means kicking the can down the road in perpetuity. And that's why, now that the for the first time there is a reasonable chance of us leaving without an agreement, there is the potential for the UK to negotiate something better than what has been offered to date.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
Check the numbers and I think you will find it was the ERG and their friends in the DUP, for whom £1,500,000,000 wasn’t enough.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
The EU wanted to offer May extension to January 2020 before but Macron vetoed it and would likely do so again
Another one for the HY nonsense pile...
Not nonsense, in Macron's own words:
'“In the case of Brexit, you just have to know at some point whether it stops or not.
“If we follow the logic of saying that it scares us and that we are prepared not to respect the British vote, we betray both the British and the interest of the British.”
Macron added: “That’s why I spoke. But I did not try to act alone. If I had wanted, the French veto would have been enough to block unanimity. We have, with [the Belgian prime minister] Charles Michel and Chancellor Merkel in particular, built a consensus around 31 October, that is to say before the establishment of the new [European] commission, to prevent the next mandate being polluted by this subject we’ve been talking about for three years.”
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
Check the numbers and I think you will find it was the ERG and their friends in the DUP, for whom £1,500,000,000 wasn’t enough.
Off topic, it's pretty clear in The Times today that the EU are preparing to extend the Brexit deadline again to January 2020 of Johnson secures the premiership.
The EU wanted to offer May extension to January 2020 before but Macron vetoed it and would likely do so again
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
Check the numbers and I think you will find it was the ERG and their friends in the DUP, for whom £1,500,000,000 wasn’t enough.
And Tory Remainers but a majority of Tory MPs still voted for the WA.
The fact Boris is a Leaver would at least show the ERG he can be more trusted on the future relationship than May
Haven't yet looked at the comments but thanks @david_herdson for a good article.
What baffles me is why on earth Mr B Johnson wishes to become PM. Ambition, delusions of grandeur maybe, but he must know he isn't likely to be much good at it. He might make a decent stab at it with a superbly competent team around him, but where are they going to come from? How long will it be before he gets fed up & what will he do then? Resign? Just go AWOL?
Good afternoon, everyone.
i really don't get the total hostility to Boris, he is 1000% improvement on TMay. For me poetic justice would be Bojo and Gove in final two and to see Gove humiliated like he humiliated Johnson in 2016. Revenge is a dish.......
Whoever is Chancellor in a Johnson administration has the potential to the most powerful in our history: a Cheney to Johnson’s Bush.
I have a couple of quid on Truss for CoE.
Just praying it isn't Mogg. We would be on the gold standard, imperial preference and issuing guineas by end of first week.
At least if he reversed decimalisation there would be something to be thankful for.
This is making me want JRM for Chancellor.
Angels, groats, farthings, florins, crowns, half crowns, gold sovereigns, silver threepenny bits and income tax a temporary measure to see of Napoleon. Bring it on. His window tax would hit those shiny new skyscrapers in the city rather hard though, but they would save a lot on the hearth tax.
Inflation rules out most of those unless we rebaseline the pound.
But guineas and sovereigns are possible.
I've been saying for some time that we should rebaseline the pound when we have a new monarch.
Anecdote alert: I’m just off the phone to my mum, lifelong Conservative and firm (though not obsessed) Leaver. Unprompted, she asked about my betting position on the Conservative leadership race (my niece blabbed and my mum now takes a personal interest).
We are not going to get "no deal". Whoever is Tory leader will get another 2 years (at least) of status quo. He will be able to say we are out of the EU - the nutters will moan but most will say thats all OK the sky hasn't fallen in after all.
Of course in the longer term will be a mess -we will be rule takers with no influence but that will be the result of a badly thought out referendum.
Ultimately correct in my view, but there could be a lot of mess in the meantime. Also I don't think people realise what rule taking means. We will be denied an opinion on what happens to us. Despite the rhetoric that's not the situation now.
People certainly realise what rule taking means as its how they have to live their lives.
And it is what the UK has had to do while it has been in the EU.
There is however a big difference between being bound by collective decision-making (EU membership) and not turning up to to the meetings where those decisions are made, but nevertheless bound by them (soft and only realistic Brexit)
People will find out the difference.
The UK has a vote in the EU in the same way as a Conservative supporter has a vote in Liverpool.
No it doesn't. The is the second biggest economy in the EU. Its language is the lingua franca of the community. It has a lot of cards to play. It is extremely foolish to give up the influence we have.
He will, either through a tweaked Withdrawal Agreement passing the Commons with maybe some limit on the backstop or technical alternative, perhaps passing on similar lines to the No Deal vote last week with about 20 Labour MPs either voting with the government or abstaining or after Boris has won a majority at a general election.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
The Tories are currently 4th in the latest poll so almost any position will be better for them than now.
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
You assume there’s only one direction the Conservatives can go from here. That assumption is incorrect.
It is possible more Tories could move to the Brexit Party and Farage could enter No 10 as a result if Brexit is not delivered, that is correct
That is certainly the biggest risk in UK politics at the moment. Not sure there is any way to stop it though.
We are not going to get "no deal". Whoever is Tory leader will get another 2 years (at least) of status quo. He will be able to say we are out of the EU - the nutters will moan but most will say thats all OK the sky hasn't fallen in after all.
Of course in the longer term will be a mess -we will be rule takers with no influence but that will be the result of a badly thought out referendum.
Ultimately correct in my view, but there could be a lot of mess in the meantime. Also I don't think people realise what rule taking means. We will be denied an opinion on what happens to us. Despite the rhetoric that's not the situation now.
People certainly realise what rule taking means as its how they have to live their lives.
And it is what the UK has had to do while it has been in the EU.
There is however a big difference between being bound by collective decision-making (EU membership) and not turning up to to the meetings where those decisions are made, but nevertheless bound by them (soft and only realistic Brexit)
People will find out the difference.
The UK has a vote in the EU in the same way as a Conservative supporter has a vote in Liverpool.
Another convert to the crusade for fair votes?
The number of times the UK had to accept rules it didn’t agree on are very few.
Anecdote alert: I’m just off the phone to my mum, lifelong Conservative and firm (though not obsessed) Leaver. Unprompted, she asked about my betting position on the Conservative leadership race (my niece blabbed and my mum now takes a personal interest).
“Do you think that Boris Johnson will get it?”
I said I thought it was looking very likely.
“Heaven help us all.”
Like all good Mums she probably didn't want to upset you!
I could equally quote my mother - former NHS nurse, pretty much voted Labour her entire life (including in the EU elections), voted leave and the only Tory she has ever voted (as Mayor) is Boris Johnson and he is the only candidate who would make her think about voting Tory.
Boris like Corbyn is marmite - so it makes for interesting times. But for every Mum who doesn't like Boris there is another who does!
Anecdote alert: I’m just off the phone to my mum, lifelong Conservative and firm (though not obsessed) Leaver. Unprompted, she asked about my betting position on the Conservative leadership race (my niece blabbed and my mum now takes a personal interest).
“Do you think that Boris Johnson will get it?”
I said I thought it was looking very likely.
“Heaven help us all.”
Like all good Mums she probably didn't want to upset you!
O/T: We went to see a production of Shakespeare’s Cymbeline at the Hudson Valley Shakespeare Festival last night, and if the RSC or NT aren’t planning a Brexit-themed production of the play I’d be very surprised.
'It's ridiculously hyperbolic to call Farage a Fascist!'
Also the Brexiteers.
'Ooh look, the less dumb Gallagher sez obstructing Brexit is Fascism!'
Does Liam have an opinion on the subject?
I can safely say whatever happens on 31 October or beyond Britain will still be in Europe unless there is a massive shift in the continental plates in the next few months.
Comments
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1139843947310620672
The Saudis have the means and a more convincing motive. Not to mention a demonstrable lack of any petty moral qualms.
Of course Iran could be responsible, but I’d want much, much more convincing evidence before acting on that claim.
Witness the extent to which Tory candidates are falling over themselves to ignore, and implicitly reject, the need for sound public finances – something which will have long-lasting political effects as it becomes extremely hard for Tories to defend the austerity programme having just undermined the rationale for it, and hence becomes very easy for Labour to claim that the cuts were ‘ideological’.
Given that there hasn't been any austerity and that the cuts were ideological does that surprise anyone ?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/can-elizabeth-warren-win-it-all
In terms of how the candidates come across I'm leaning towards Ed Davey, who seems a better communicator than jo Swinson, but very much undecided. Also worried that Swinson as a Scottish lib dem will end up having to divert energy fighting the SNP. But she does seem to be the one who could maybe organise some sort of tactical vote alliance for the next GE whereas Davey has seemed more tribal so far.
Or Boris will take us to No Deal, the failure of the vote last week means there is little legislation the Commons can now propose to stop that
Except goal 1 is mutually exclusive with goal 2. Delivering Brexit will not unite the country, it will cement the divide for generations.
And if it goes badly, it screws 3 as well
The idea that someone would be part of a team competent enough to destroy one thousand votes for a specific party without being caught and then stupid enough to brag about it online afterwards, does not pass scrutiny.
I think that it is clearly Iran - where things go from here no idea.
People will find out the difference.
Obviously the last favourite before the winning line is most likely to win, but if you've been playing the next leader markets for long, you will have laid not just Boris but also Michael Gove, George Osborne and David Davis, and possibly JRM and Jeremy Hunt as well. In the next PM market, probably Jeremy Corbyn.
In this thread, some have mentioned backing Boris at 8/1 and 16/1. Obviously someone else was favourite on those occasions.
The advice to lay the favourite, both here and on Love Island, does not mean favourites never win, so much as the betting will fluctuate. The point is your winnings on Gove, Osborne and Corbyn make up for what you lose on Boris, even if he wins, which we'd expect the last favourite to do.
If the mods and editors are reading, perhaps we might try to persuade Shadsy or Tissue Price to talk about how politics and reality markets are approached by the professional layers.
F***ng student debater, f***ing captain fishy craggy old f***ing donkey, f*** off," he says of the Labour leader, describing shadow home secretary Diane Abbott as 'the face of f***ing buffoonery' in the same breath.
They talk pipe-smoking communist nonsense, do you know what I mean? I think the role of any politician in the world is to be forward thinking, and modern, and contemporary - looking forward
'It's ridiculously hyperbolic to call Farage a Fascist!'
Also the Brexiteers.
'Ooh look, the less dumb Gallagher sez obstructing Brexit is Fascism!'
Another one to be writing down....
The interview with Heywood on TWIW is worth a listen in this respect. He sees the hustings as key, some of which will be broadcast. A lot hangs on whether the (many) “not Boris” folks within the third party can unite around a credible alternative.
He just needs to be laughed at whilst pointing out the many many flaws in his arguments
Javid does have the look of a sontaran
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28534/iran-tried-to-shoot-down-u-s-reaper-drone-near-tankers-hours-before-attacks-report
Is he a non-voter who now has an opinion on the whole thing?
But of course if the Tories get their act together the split on the centre left is an absolute open goal for them. And this could change quite quickly.
On the balance of probabilities and the available evidence what seems more likely to you.
The Tories have (quite willingly) got themselves into a position where any path forward leads to a worse outcome than we currently enjoy. You need to start facing reality rather than fantasy scenarios based on a glib and complacent reading of selected polls.
https://twitter.com/supermugatu/status/1139545059752337408?s=21
Most Tory MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, it was Labour, LD, DUP and SNP MPs who prevented it passing
They are classy and fun.
But guineas and sovereigns are possible.
No wasting 3 years on May this time around. 3 months or he’s done.
None of these means of influence are available to the UK after Brexit, but it will still be bound by decisions made by others. As people voted Leave to "take control" that will be a big problem.
Norway doesn't actually debate substantive issues in parliament that are EEA scope rules. There's no point. They have to do what they are told.
On their part they want to know he has the numbers in the Commons to pass it first else they are wasting their time.
What baffles me is why on earth Mr B Johnson wishes to become PM. Ambition, delusions of grandeur maybe, but he must know he isn't likely to be much good at it. He might make a decent stab at it with a superbly competent team around him, but where are they going to come from? How long will it be before he gets fed up & what will he do then? Resign? Just go AWOL?
Good afternoon, everyone.
Things have changed.
'“In the case of Brexit, you just have to know at some point whether it stops or not.
“If we follow the logic of saying that it scares us and that we are prepared not to respect the British vote, we betray both the British and the interest of the British.”
Macron added: “That’s why I spoke. But I did not try to act alone. If I had wanted, the French veto would have been enough to block unanimity. We have, with [the Belgian prime minister] Charles Michel and Chancellor Merkel in particular, built a consensus around 31 October, that is to say before the establishment of the new [European] commission, to prevent the next mandate being polluted by this subject we’ve been talking about for three years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/macron-wants-to-avoid-brexit-polluting-eu-after-31-october
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-24855930
The fact Boris is a Leaver would at least show the ERG he can be more trusted on the future relationship than May
“Do you think that Boris Johnson will get it?”
I said I thought it was looking very likely.
“Heaven help us all.”
https://twitter.com/Zarkwan/status/1139825390980087808
In any case the Withdrawal Agreement is there, just most MPs have refused to vote for it
I could equally quote my mother - former NHS nurse, pretty much voted Labour her entire life (including in the EU elections), voted leave and the only Tory she has ever voted (as Mayor) is Boris Johnson and he is the only candidate who would make her think about voting Tory.
Boris like Corbyn is marmite - so it makes for interesting times. But for every Mum who doesn't like Boris there is another who does!
I can safely say whatever happens on 31 October or beyond Britain will still be in Europe unless there is a massive shift in the continental plates in the next few months.