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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris and the illusion of unity

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris and the illusion of unity

There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the two most urgent decisions facing it today: who to choose as leader, and what then to do about Brexit?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    First!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    I like the "currently".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Boris will, if he gets the job, finally have nowhere to hide.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    A very good article. On the occasions I have voted Tory "pragmatism, business-friendly financial discipline, and facing up to difficult decisions" explains very neatly why I have done so.

    I think less than 10% of Tory MPs are standing up for those principles now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. B2, quite. Maybe he'll surprise on the upside.

    But I expect his vainglorious ambition to be his downfall.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Excellent header. Tories have been warned.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Good piece Richard, thank you. Good to see some Tories can discern this. There is a socially liberal, internationalist, pro-immigration and business Boris. There is also a mirror image, each speaking to a different audience, in almost different languages.
    He is almost the pre-coalition Lib Dems personified.
    In no.10, or in a GE, he will have to choose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Similar argument:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1139506191338475520
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Excellent thread header, Richard.

    It's worth pointing out that Gavin Williamson is helping to run Boris' campaign in the House of Commons and Mr Williamson was a former Chief Whip. He has all the dirt he could ever need or want on every MP and the other candidates for the post. He is highly ambitious and loves strong-arming, as shown in his crass attempt to force Boris supporters to prove they had actually voted for his man via photographing their ballot papers.

    As you rightly point out, none of this is actually winning an argument. Here we have Lyndon Crosby to 'thank.' He is assiduously trying to keep Boris on a smooth run in to victory. He's done this before and cocked it up. We can but hope.

    Anyway, assuming Boris wins, as I've mentioned recently he will have to go to the country. He won't have a majority in the Commons, even with the DUP, to govern.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    For any cricket lovers out there, Robin Smith has a book out:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jun/14/robin-smith-cricket-england-interview-donald-mcrae

    I had no idea that he was one of cricket's tortured souls. I wish him well.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    rottenborough said:

    Excellent header. Tories have been warned.

    It is indeed. The Tories aren’t listening. They are in their own La-La-Land.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    “There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away...”



  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    "winning the internal political arguments and imposing a coherent vision on policy" is less salient as a unifier within the Conservative Party than the imperative to win the next election. Boris might just do that. Other candidates seem less likely to do so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    They don't count as populists, apparently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    The New Yorker has a good primer on Johnson for those less familiar with his history:
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    So Fraser Nelson's argument is that, if you don't count the main populist party as populist, populism is unpopular in Britain.

    It's absolutely crackers, isn't it? The Brexit Party are textbook populists... "The elites have let you down... and if only you turf them out in favour of us, we have a simple solution to everything".
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited June 2019
    Another feature is the complete lack of any policy, beyond Brexit, from any of the candidates. A smorgasbord of tax cuts to select from plus Brexit, is not a programme for government. We have heard nowt about social care, health, transport,education, regional inequality, not to mention the alarming situation in the Persian Gulf.
    All of which are but a smidgen of the things a PM has to deal with.
    Are they a low tax, low spend Party? Or a One Nation Party? Once again, the leading candidates, and I include Hunt, Gove, and Javid in this, are claiming to be, effectively, both.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Not much “pragmatism, business-friendly financial discipline, and facing up to difficult decisions” in the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party.

    They have become a one-trick pony.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Thank you Nabbers.

    ..............................

    Boris and team are on the threshold of successfully walking that Ming vase across the drawing room and placing it on the marble fireplace.

    Well done Boris.

    Next to the Ming vase is a gold Flemish wine cup made in Brussels. Boris lifts the cup and drinks. The contents are not to his liking.

    The Ming vase has been supplanted by the poison chalice.



  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    Ah, I see now. So the 8% is actually UKIP then?

    Fraser is talking nonsense. Clearly Farage is running a National Populist party and it is obvious what kind of policies are likely to emerge. Anti-elite, anti-media, anti representative democracy, pro-WTO, pro US trade deal, voice of the people etc etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    JackW said:

    Thank you Nabbers.

    ..............................

    Boris and team are on the threshold of successfully walking that Ming vase across the drawing room and placing it on the marble fireplace.

    Well done Boris.

    Next to the Ming vase is a gold Flemish wine cup made in Brussels. Boris lifts the cup and drinks. The contents are not to his liking.

    The Ming vase has been supplanted by the poison chalice.



    :lol:

    But at least he gets to drink it. He would rather die from the poison than watch someone else drink the poison.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    I can understand BP supporters not wanting the party to be viewed as fascist or nationalist, but why on earth do they not want to be seen as populists?

    It is quite a cuddly generous word for such a party.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    I’ve never understood why Fraser Nelson is rated by his media paymasters. He is one of those so-called journalists whose real aim is not journalistic investigation, but rather the spinning of a tired line. Mind you, he has plenty of company.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    It appears @GOsborneGenius has been suspended from Twitter
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    So Fraser Nelson's argument is that, if you don't count the main populist party as populist, populism is unpopular in Britain.

    It's absolutely crackers, isn't it? The Brexit Party are textbook populists... "The elites have let you down... and if only you turf them out in favour of us, we have a simple solution to everything".
    Precisely. I think Fraser has spent the afternoon in the pub.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    dixiedean said:

    Another feature is the complete lack of any policy, beyond Brexit, from any of the candidates. A smorgasbord of tax cuts to select from plus Brexit, is not a programme for government. We have heard nowt about social care, health, transport,education, regional inequality, not to mention the alarming situation in the Persian Gulf.
    All of which are but a smidgen of the things a PM has to deal with.
    Are they a low tax, low spend Party? Or a One Nation Party? Once again, the leading candidates are claiming to be, effectively, both.

    I think one of the candidates, was it Boris?, promised more school funding for Kent. Another one, maybe it was Hancock, had a policy on Education, but I don't remember what it was. I know Rory has wanted to talk about the problems in adult social care, etc, but I don't know that he has suggested much in the way of policy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    Ah, I see now. So the 8% is actually UKIP then?

    Fraser is talking nonsense. Clearly Farage is running a National Populist party and it is obvious what kind of policies are likely to emerge. Anti-elite, anti-media, anti representative democracy, pro-WTO, pro US trade deal, voice of the people etc etc.
    UKIP was 2%, so guess SNP, Plaid etc count and BP dont in his view.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    I've got a graph showing that the Conservatives did best out of all the parties with blue as their party colour in June. Just as a footnote, I'm categorising the Brexit Party's colour as turquoise for these purposes.

    And I have another graph conclusively proving Labour did best out of parties beginning with "L". Obviously, the Lib Dems don't count in that as they have two words in their name.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1139506723402723329
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    So Fraser Nelson's argument is that, if you don't count the main populist party as populist, populism is unpopular in Britain.

    It's absolutely crackers, isn't it? The Brexit Party are textbook populists... "The elites have let you down... and if only you turf them out in favour of us, we have a simple solution to everything".
    Yepp.

    Fraser Nelson has just sunk in my estimation, which is hard, as he was already at Richard Leonard level.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    noneoftheabove said:

    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    Ah, I see now. So the 8% is actually UKIP then?

    Fraser is talking nonsense. Clearly Farage is running a National Populist party and it is obvious what kind of policies are likely to emerge. Anti-elite, anti-media, anti representative democracy, pro-WTO, pro US trade deal, voice of the people etc etc.
    UKIP was 2%, so guess SNP, Plaid etc count and BP dont in his view.
    He’ll have nicked the graph from some research body or other, and they have probably blindly lumped all regionalist and secessionist parties across the EU into that category. Hence I suspect the 8% is UKIP and the Nats
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lib Dems reject Chuka

    https://newsthump.com/2019/06/14/liberal-democrats-form-new-breakaway-party-to-escape-chuka-umunna/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1139456048744603648

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1139460126459518976

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    If only we could stage a family intervention, rather than watching helplessly from the sidelines and stockpiling our food.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Little gem of a header.

    No, this reaching for an individual purely because he is deemed to have a certain cheap populist appeal does not reflect well on the Conservative Party.

    It smacks of desperation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    I’ve never understood why Fraser Nelson is rated by his media paymasters. He is one of those so-called journalists whose real aim is not journalistic investigation, but rather the spinning of a tired line. Mind you, he has plenty of company.
    Yep. One of the forerunners is about to be PM.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    Ploppikins said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
    Rory gave the alternative plan. Rule out no deal and no Brexit and commit to hard work, listening and persuading until you get there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139517654669123584
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Ploppikins, ironically, if they'd tossed May overboard six months ago I think Boris would've found things much more difficult.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Bozo strategy is tell both sides what they want to hear and hope the eventual losing side accepts you lied to them and says fine no problem .

    Clearly it’s the Remain wing that will have to suck it up , some will but not enough to avoid another Tory implosion .

    It all depends how long this One Nation Guff survives , will the mask fall before the summer recess in which case I expect the Tories working majority to have evaporated by then or will Bozo manage to keep up his charade till September .
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    edited June 2019
    noneoftheabove said:

    Ploppikins said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
    Rory gave the alternative plan. Rule out no deal and no Brexit and commit to hard work, listening and persuading until you get there.
    Who is there to persuade that May hasn't tried? Lab can smell blood, no incentive to support. DUP hate backstop. LDs and SNP would pass deal pending a confirmatory referendum. Except.... At that point the right flank of the Tory party falls off and that option vanishes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Ploppikins said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
    Accept that Brexit can't be implemented as a UK-wide One Nation project, and then allow it to run into the sand. If Brexit supporters become impatient and demand English independence, then you have the perfect excuse for a second referendum.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    If only we could stage a family intervention, rather than watching helplessly from the sidelines and stockpiling our food.
    I think you have problems closer to home. Alastair Meeks is running dangerously low on hackneyed metaphors. If we Brexit by October 31 he simply will not have time to re-stock, and PB could see dire shortages of his trademark lugubrious prose. Please give generously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1139561478246342656
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    The choice to go for the leavers was made a long time ago; certainly when May took office; arguably it was implicit in Cameron calling the referendum, although he didn’t understand it at the time. Possibly it’s logical; across the western world Conservative parties are losing their educated voters, and they need to find some replacements. But it isn’t good for the country.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    Ploppikins said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Ploppikins said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
    Rory gave the alternative plan. Rule out no deal and no Brexit and commit to hard work, listening and persuading until you get there.
    Who is there to persuade that May hasn't tried? Lab can smell blood, no incentive to support. DUP hate backstop. LDs and SNP would pass deal pending a confirmatory referendum. Except.... At that point the right flank of the Tory party falls off and that option vanishes.
    Or perhaps May was possibly the worst person available to do the persuasion? And did not have any support from her cabinet.

    Perhaps a new leader with a completely different style could get different results.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1139561478246342656

    Chuka has been anointed the Messiah, might as well double down. Who cares if he’s been a spectacular failure?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Hmmm.

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1139301749070737411
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1139561478246342656

    Interesting tweet I’m surprised the Lib Dems are still polling that high . I’d expected a drop off into say the 15% range by now . It may still happen but he does make a good point . The longer that continues the bigger the problem for Labour .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1139561478246342656

    To what end will this serve? A Johnson landslide on 33%?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nico67 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1139561478246342656

    Interesting tweet I’m surprised the Lib Dems are still polling that high . I’d expected a drop off into say the 15% range by now . It may still happen but he does make a good point . The longer that continues the bigger the problem for Labour .
    Maybe Remainers have finally seen through Jezza and his LEXIT loving gang.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I was hoping to add some new names to the endorsements spreadsheets today but I haven't been able to find any, nor anyone who's switched between candidates. If anyone knows of any I'd be interested to know.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    What happens value wise to the LADBROKES bets on Chuka holding Streatham? @Tissue_Price

    Backers must be in front I guess?
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    noneoftheabove said:

    Ploppikins said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Ploppikins said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
    Rory gave the alternative plan. Rule out no deal and no Brexit and commit to hard work, listening and persuading until you get there.
    Who is there to persuade that May hasn't tried? Lab can smell blood, no incentive to support. DUP hate backstop. LDs and SNP would pass deal pending a confirmatory referendum. Except.... At that point the right flank of the Tory party falls off and that option vanishes.
    Or perhaps May was possibly the worst person available to do the persuasion? And did not have any support from her cabinet.

    Perhaps a new leader with a completely different style could get different results.
    May was indeed a lamentable communicator. Possible that a new leader could pull something out of the bag but I'm doubtful. The arithmetic is nightmarish for the Tories. Having that majority would have helped them a bit.

    If all sides put their heads together the WA could pass easily including a customs Union and possible 2nd ref. Too much to be gained from not cooperating though...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    rottenborough said:

    Hmmm.

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1139301749070737411

    She's got the remain credentials - total denial.

    I'd guess that they're hoping she doesn't apply.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Always consider the source before betting, readers
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    Ploppikins said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Ploppikins said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Ploppikins said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ploppikins said:

    The rejection of May and switch to Boris is a choice. It's a choice to ignore Remainers, a choice to scrap the detail in pursuit of the unknown at the risk of economic chaos. The Tories have reasoned (rightly or wrongly) that the brexit party is a bigger existential threat than the lib Dems.

    Although it is a nightmarish choice, I can see why they've made it. Better to side with the 52, rout the brexit party, respect the referendum and not lose the ERG lot than fish for Remainer votes and overturn the referendum.

    All brilliant, until first contact is made with reality.
    Yep. But what's the alternative? "We are the party of fiscal competence. Brexit will damage the economy. Ergo, Brexit is cancelled".

    While they might get some centrists back on board, they'll lose way too many brexiteers. Corbyn strides into Downing Street and a new chapter of British political history begins.
    Rory gave the alternative plan. Rule out no deal and no Brexit and commit to hard work, listening and persuading until you get there.
    Who is there to persuade that May hasn't tried? Lab can smell blood, no incentive to support. DUP hate backstop. LDs and SNP would pass deal pending a confirmatory referendum. Except.... At that point the right flank of the Tory party falls off and that option vanishes.
    Or perhaps May was possibly the worst person available to do the persuasion? And did not have any support from her cabinet.

    Perhaps a new leader with a completely different style could get different results.
    May was indeed a lamentable communicator. Possible that a new leader could pull something out of the bag but I'm doubtful. The arithmetic is nightmarish for the Tories. Having that majority would have helped them a bit.

    If all sides put their heads together the WA could pass easily including a customs Union and possible 2nd ref. Too much to be gained from not cooperating though...
    A skilled Tory leader could exploit the many divisions within the parliamentary Labour party. May and Johnson for completely differing reasons are probably the two least likely to achieve that in parliament, and the Tories have chosen them in succession.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Thank you for the header, Richard. :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Hear his ‘almost’ slip when he was pressed on the October leaving date if we nearly had a deal by then; he appears to start to say something like “let’s cross that bridge”, before remembering he isn’t supposed to open any possibility of delay, and starts the sentence again with his original mantra.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    RobD said:

    Thank you for the header, Richard. :)

    First class and I like currently member of the party.

    I think there are many of us
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Unusually, I've written my Saturday piece already (because our boiler was playing up so I've been off work today). It bears some similarities with Richard's, which is both annoying and reassuring in equal measure, although I'm a little stronger in my language.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    isam said:

    “There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away...”



    Beat me to it. A very good thread header from Richard, but the rot set in under Dave and George.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited June 2019
    At least the Tories are trying to hold the large majority of their 2017 voters . Bizarely the Labour Party have worked out a new type of maths , the alternative maths where you try and hold onto the ever shrinking Labour Leave vote which now on a good day is lucky to hit 25%.

    In Corbyns world pissing off 75% of your voters is the way forward .

    And even when faced with poll after poll which shows just 10% switching to the BP compared to over 40% heading to the Lib Dems and Greens Corbyn remains hunkered down in his fantasy bunker .

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2019
    I think Nelson is saying that Brexit isn't popular.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    nico67 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1139561478246342656

    Interesting tweet I’m surprised the Lib Dems are still polling that high . I’d expected a drop off into say the 15% range by now . It may still happen but he does make a good point . The longer that continues the bigger the problem for Labour .
    Our politics would be improved if Labour retreated to its northern city/South Wales strongholds and became a minority voice for organised Labour, as is the left in many European countries, leaving the LibDems to become the broader centre-left opposition to the Tories across most of the country.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    One of the problems for Labour is that it holds more seats with smallish majorities in Leave voting areas, whereas its Remain seats tend to have enormous majorities in the big cities.

    I think around 33 of Labour's 50 most marginal seats voted Leave:

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    Let’s say the Conservatives abandoned Brexit tomorrow, saying it had all been a terrible mistake.

    What do you think would happen to them?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    david_herdson said:

    Unusually, I've written my Saturday piece already (because our boiler was playing up so I've been off work today). It bears some similarities with Richard's, which is both annoying and reassuring in equal measure, although I'm a little stronger in my language.

    “the Tories are f***ed” ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    “There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away...”



    Beat me to it. A very good thread header from Richard, but the rot set in under Dave and George.
    I wonder what happened in 1997?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    Let’s say the Conservatives abandoned Brexit tomorrow, saying it had all been a terrible mistake.

    What do you think would happen to them?
    Yes, there is no escape!

    From the moment they called the referendum all paths ahead were bad - even Cameron’s presumed victory over his nutters (which would have been narrow) surely would have led to the equivalent of what Farage is doing now? The SNP offer the copybook.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    What happens value wise to the LADBROKES bets on Chuka holding Streatham? @Tissue_Price

    Backers must be in front I guess?

    It's disappeared. Still I think 6-4 Labour is an ok price there, plenty out there who will just tick the lab box in a GE. The real value was 25-1 Lib Dems which everyone missed tho.
    Chuka needs to win a BE there first to increase his chance at a GE I think. Not sure 4-6 Chuka/Lib Dems is even fair value still though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Boris Johnson has got the "Bollocks To Brexit" Pimlico Plumbers founder Charlie Mullins on side.

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1139540412513816576
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    I’ve never understood why Fraser Nelson is rated by his media paymasters. He is one of those so-called journalists whose real aim is not journalistic investigation, but rather the spinning of a tired line. Mind you, he has plenty of company.
    It is the battiest claim I have ever seen made by a paid journalist. If he thinks single issue parties can't be populist we can break Brexit down into reduced immigration, more money for NHS, banning the burka, and then add in Farage's own offerings

    "What is in the Brexit Party manifesto?

    The party has said it will only produce a "full slate" of polices once the EU elections are over.

    Farage told a rally in West Yorkshire he would only talk about Brexit-related issues.

    He told the crowd in Featherstone: “Thereafter, of course we’re going to put a full slate of policies up before the British public – political reform, more help for the regions, scrapping of ludicrous projects like HS2."

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8844929/brexit-party-nigel-farage-eu-elections-policies/

    A succinct and explicit claim by the person best placed to know that there's a full set of policies in the making.

    But anyway where would Fraser's rule leave Hitler if he had campaigned solely on the Jewish "problem"?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    rottenborough said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Ishmael_Z said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    I’ve never understood why Fraser Nelson is rated by his media paymasters. He is one of those so-called journalists whose real aim is not journalistic investigation, but rather the spinning of a tired line. Mind you, he has plenty of company.
    It is the battiest claim I have ever seen made by a paid journalist. If he thinks single issue parties can't be populist we can break Brexit down into reduced immigration, more money for NHS, banning the burka, and then add in Farage's own offerings

    "What is in the Brexit Party manifesto?

    The party has said it will only produce a "full slate" of polices once the EU elections are over.

    Farage told a rally in West Yorkshire he would only talk about Brexit-related issues.

    He told the crowd in Featherstone: “Thereafter, of course we’re going to put a full slate of policies up before the British public – political reform, more help for the regions, scrapping of ludicrous projects like HS2."

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8844929/brexit-party-nigel-farage-eu-elections-policies/

    A succinct and explicit claim by the person best placed to know that there's a full set of policies in the making.

    But anyway where would Fraser's rule leave Hitler if he had campaigned solely on the Jewish "problem"?

    He’s lazy. He certainly didn’t spend the day analysing the position of myriad European parties and deciding which were and were not populist. He simply nicked the graph from somewhere and didn’t apply any thought to it at all. Just like he published that list of things wrong with May’s deal and it then turned out a whole batch of them were made up or incorrect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "F-35 jets: Chinese-owned company making parts for top-secret UK-US fighters
    An expert said it's possible to embed technology such as a chip without a customer's knowledge that could change how it functions."

    https://news.sky.com/story/f-35-jets-chinese-owned-company-making-parts-for-top-secret-uk-us-fighters-11741889
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    noneoftheabove said:




    A skilled Tory leader could exploit the many divisions within the parliamentary Labour party. May and Johnson for completely differing reasons are probably the two least likely to achieve that in parliament, and the Tories have chosen them in succession.

    Boris has quite a few skills. He's not in the mould of the PMs we've had recently, but I don't think its necessary for the PM to be on top of detail in the way that PMs since Callaghan have generally been.

    Cameron was what I guess you'd call a 'skilled Tory leader' and look where that went. (I think it's a pity he didn't stay on)

    Hague was (and still is) an exemplary leader - however somehow he didn't cut it. (Baseball cap)

    I'm not concerned about any of the likely winners of the Tory race. I'd prefer if Raab didn't win as I think his suggestion of proroguing parliament was horrible, unwise, and generally ludicrous. I don't think he's prone to such stupidity though.

    Whoever the new leader is they have a very simple agenda for the next few months - get Brexit out of the way, and survive until it is out of the way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Always consider the source before betting, readers
    The thought father's the wish
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Always consider the source before betting, readers
    Be fair; when it comes to sounding like a prick Roger is an expert.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    Let’s say the Conservatives abandoned Brexit tomorrow, saying it had all been a terrible mistake.

    What do you think would happen to them?
    They can’t abandon Brexit . But don’t want to be blamed for a no deal if it goes badly wrong .

    The least worst option is really for Johnson to give one of his flowery speeches , say he’s had enough of the gridlock , say he trusts the people to support his WTO Brexit , they made the right decision in 2016 and he hopes that they’ll back him again . A second vote no deal or Remain , and that’s the end of it , MPs will no longer have any more input .

    He can argue against suspending parliament as that would set a bad precedent , he can lay it on thick that Labour could use that to turn the UK into a Marxist hell hole.

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Being pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and facing up to difficult decisions could have applied to the Tories in 1997, they were trounced. It does not always work out that way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited June 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
    I think TM did mean what she said but she was utterly unsuited as a salesperson

    Indeed, if Boris had achieved her deal he would have sold it and we would be out

    Not that I am a Boris supporter but he does have charisma and ability to sell
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting graph:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
    I think TM did mean what she said but she was utterly unsuited as a salesperson

    Indeed, if Boris had achieved her deal he would have sold it and we would be out

    Not that I am a Boris supporter but he does have charisma and ability to sell
    If she meant it, she chickened out. By the end she was like a rabbit in the headlights clearly unwilling to "take no deal off the table" but clearly unwilling to actually go to no deal which is the same thing.

    It was like Corbyn saying he would pay for Trident but would in no circumstances use it.

    I do agree about the saleman bit. I said before the December Tory No Confidence vote the best chance of May's deal being ratified was an amended version being pushed by someone else. Replacing May would allow her successor to say they have got the best amendments possible and made ratification more viable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Thanks for the comments, and apologies to @david_herdson if I've preempted tomorrow's piece!
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