Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
I was wondering whether some MPs might vote for Boris once, so they can tell their local parties with honesty that they supported him, then switch to stop Boris candidates later on.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
There is a very ugly story doing the rounds about Boris, a melon, and Natalie Rowe. You might want to google that before throwing your hat in with this guy.
Wasn't Natalie Rowe also George Osborne's 'associate' ?
Agree with all the people saying Rory is great. But he suffers from the same problem in the actual circumstances facing him that No Deal is not an option for him, so Remain must be an option - there being ultimately nowhere else to go. In a way it's a pity that such an intelligent remainer has not planted a flag on the unoccupied 'Norway for Now' or 'EFTA for Now' option. It would not get past the party of course but would have the minor merits of being sane, incrementalist, possible and correct.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
Yes. Hunt or Rory or possibly Ruth via by-election will need to rebuild the wasteland after No Deal chaos.
Hard to believe southerners still go on about Davidson who is absolutely useless, she makes Boris look principled. She has no vision , policies or anything positive to add, a lying one trick pony saying SNPBAD no Indyref2. It is easy to see why so much dross gets to where they do in England.
Yes, fair comment. Davidson must be the most overrated politician in the UK. She is vaguely normal hence why she seems unusually brilliant among the Tory freak show.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
This time a similar number of MPs have publicly declared support, there is just under 100 left. Boris is on 69. Maybe this time will be different, but I wouldn't put the brackets relying on it being different as near favourites.
Interestingly another way of looking at things is that the undecideds split fairly evenly, with a few more going to the top candidates but not nearly as skewed as the public declarations. In that case Boris will end in the 80s more likely than 90s - but 70s while possible will still be tight. And that's assuming he doesn't add any public backers in the next couple of days.
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
Unfortunately, elections are carried out in 650 constituencies sometime in the future, rather than with YouGov a couple of weeks ago with hypothetical questions. While YouGov have a good record at the moment, we're very much in uncharted waters with four strong showings (plus the Greens as another half). Both for modelling opinion and for modelling the translation of that opinion to seats. Added to the fact that opinions move over time, and hypothetical questions have poor records"
"Boris would probably have got in the high twenties a couple of weeks ago, if people voted as they believed they might, which might be enough for a majority if the vote distribution broke in a fashion broadly similar to the modelling on Electoral Calculus. The other candidates appeared, at the time, to have slightly lower support"
It's less absolutist than your version, but it has the advantage of being far more accurate.
Rory Stewart also goes down well with some Labour friends .
I wouldn’t ever vote Tory and they wouldn’t but he does get some grudging respect and is seen as sane and quite sensible . He also has a very interesting life story and many have been following him on social media .
The thing I like about him is he’s actually putting himself out there and taking a big risk with his campaign . He may well be another who gets removed by the no deal death cult .
If that’s representative, then his pitch is pointless.
Yes, if there is no-one between will always vote Tory and will never vote Tory his pitch is pretty pointless. In reality a large number of voters, probably a majority, have voted both Tory and Labour depending on how bonkers the parties are at any given point. The less bonkers one usually wins, the best the more bonkers one ever gets is largest party in a hung parliament.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
There is a very ugly story doing the rounds about Boris, a melon, and Natalie Rowe. You might want to google that before throwing your hat in with this guy.
Wasn't Natalie Rowe also George Osborne's 'associate' ?
I fundamently think that the Tory party has to elect Boris to get him out of their system.
He'll be a disaster, but I have no fail until everything falls, that something anything, not maybe it the tory party itself can be rebuilt from the ashes for the centre right.
Brexit, Boris, Corbyn, even Farage, the country seems to be lining up a whole series of disasters that we need to get out of our system.
Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
It would be a cause of massive lolz if the MPs all stood up publicly and backed headbangers like Bozza and Raab, then retreated to the safety of the ballot box and gave the members a choice of Stewart and Hancock.
Rory Stewart also goes down well with some Labour friends .
I wouldn’t ever vote Tory and they wouldn’t but he does get some grudging respect and is seen as sane and quite sensible . He also has a very interesting life story and many have been following him on social media .
The thing I like about him is he’s actually putting himself out there and taking a big risk with his campaign . He may well be another who gets removed by the no deal death cult .
If that’s representative, then his pitch is pointless.
Not exactly, as there's something to be said for arguing for policies in the national interest. But I agree that for winning elections, having people who won't vote for you saying you're quite sensible is neither here nor there. Which is a problem of polarised politics.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
If the Tory party did reflection we'd be in a very different place.
This time a similar number of MPs have publicly declared support, there is just under 100 left. Boris is on 69. Maybe this time will be different, but I wouldn't put the brackets relying on it being different as near favourites.
That suggests that the candidates with the lowest public pledges will gain proportionally (but not in absolute terms) more votes.
Which is logical as some of the people publicly supporting the favourite will be doing so because they want to be seen supporting the winner.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
There is a very ugly story doing the rounds about Boris, a melon, and Natalie Rowe. You might want to google that before throwing your hat in with this guy.
All of which I suspect will be aired rather more publicly when we come to the crunch in later rounds - and if not, then at a general election.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
There is a very ugly story doing the rounds about Boris, a melon, and Natalie Rowe. You might want to google that before throwing your hat in with this guy.
Wasn't Natalie Rowe also George Osborne's 'associate' ?
You can bet the Mail papers are on this one if there is any, ahem, substance, given the Gove camp seems to blame Camp Johnson for his problems
Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
I was wondering whether some MPs might vote for Boris once, so they can tell their local parties with honesty that they supported him, then switch to stop Boris candidates later on.
This is the most self confessed duplicitous electorate about. They can say they voted for Boris in round one but ....
Boris has a certain, je ne sais quoi No I have no idea what it is either. But he appeals amongst the politically less engaged. And appeals to women too.
As a politically engaged, heterosexual man I can't see where it comes from either. But it is there in fact, in the polling and his mistresses.
Yes, a woman friend who votes LD and really dislikes him politically still thinks him sexy ("energy, charm, thrust") and I know apolitical people who think Boris as PM would be a good laugh to cheer us all up. I'm not sure that the latter attitude would survive a General Election battle, though.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
Rory Stewart also goes down well with some Labour friends .
I wouldn’t ever vote Tory and they wouldn’t but he does get some grudging respect and is seen as sane and quite sensible . He also has a very interesting life story and many have been following him on social media .
The thing I like about him is he’s actually putting himself out there and taking a big risk with his campaign . He may well be another who gets removed by the no deal death cult .
Not the best Dead Ringers ever but the Rory section's funny
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
If only Johnson could call (or rather engineer) a snap election before the Brexit deadline. But that's out of the question. Isn't it?
This time a similar number of MPs have publicly declared support, there is just under 100 left. Boris is on 69. Maybe this time will be different, but I wouldn't put the brackets relying on it being different as near favourites.
That suggests that the candidates with the lowest public pledges will gain proportionally (but not in absolute terms) more votes.
Which is logical as some of the people publicly supporting the favourite will be doing so because they want to be seen supporting the winner.
It’s possible that almost all get through round one.
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
Unfortunately, elections are carried out in 650 constituencies sometime in the future, rather than with YouGov a couple of weeks ago with hypothetical questions. While YouGov have a good record at the moment, we're very much in uncharted waters with four strong showings (plus the Greens as another half). Both for modelling opinion and for modelling the translation of that opinion to seats. Added to the fact that opinions move over time, and hypothetical questions have poor records"
"Boris would probably have got in the high twenties a couple of weeks ago, if people voted as they believed they might, which might be enough for a majority if the vote distribution broke in a fashion broadly similar to the modelling on Electoral Calculus. The other candidates appeared, at the time, to have slightly lower support"
It's less absolutist than your version, but it has the advantage of being far more accurate.
And these sorts of polls are in any case measuring how popular a politician would be during their honeymoon, not how popular they'll be after a spell in office.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
My Scottish relatives must have been to your dinner party. I was emailed about how good Rory was weeks ago. I suspect the more thoughtful Scots are less impressed by the tinsel and glitter of Boris than they are the quietly thoughtful Rory. As Slab voters I've suggested Boris would be the best hope for a Tory collapse.
Roger , we are hoping Boris wins, he will be a tremendous boost for Independence.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
There is a very ugly story doing the rounds about Boris, a melon, and Natalie Rowe. You might want to google that before throwing your hat in with this guy.
Without corroboration, it is just another allegation from Natalie Rowe. Perhaps George Osborne will confirm it. If not, it is just another illustration of why MPs should not elect Boris, rather than something that will stop them doing so. Our bets will be settled on the latter point.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
Don't underestimate political "mood music". The electorate like a decent sounding narrative. It might not attract the committed but swing voters will certainly enjoy it.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
What stands out for me from that YouGov polling is that 2016 Remain voters are hardly any more likely to vote Con if the likes of Hunt or Javid were leader than they are if Johnson is leader. 14% of Remain voters would vote Con compared to 10% with Johnson. Whereas there is a much more substantial jump in Leave support for Con with Johnson as leader - 52% with Johnson compared with 33%/34% with Hunt/Javid.
Whatever else happens to shift public opinion in the campaign, the poll knocks on the head the idea that voters will come flocking back to the Conservatives with a continuity May leader.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
The article quotes $85bn invested in the UK and $340bn invested in the rest of the EU.
Which means that 20% was invested in the UK.
So proportionally more was invested in the UK than the rest of the EU.
Its always best to check the details.
Checking the details I find:
3 years ago investment in EU27 was $237b, UK was $121b, UK was 33% of total investment.
Now investment in EU27 is $340b, UK is $85b. UK is now 20% of total investment.
That is what the details show. You can't spin that to mean anything other than bad news for the UK.
And what were the three years before that and the three years before that etc.
Was it ever likely that the UK would continue to get 33% of the investment ?
No, because investment goes in ebbs and flows as previous investments are implemented and new opportunities arise.
And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property.
I'm surprised that the UK still gets proportionally more than the EU average.
Though it does suggest that given overall business investment has increased during the period then UK businesses must have significantly increased their investment to make up for the reduction in investment from outside.
The article quotes $85bn invested in the UK and $340bn invested in the rest of the EU.
Which means that 20% was invested in the UK.
So proportionally more was invested in the UK than the rest of the EU.
Its always best to check the details.
Brexit dividend then, yes?
Good to see Johnson's 'fuck business' policy is already bearing fruit.
You didn't look at the article and check the numbers when you got all excited by that tweet did you.
And wasn't Jolyon Maugham one of the fuckwits who thought that New Forest council were sending Brexit leaflets with postal votes ?
But the number you have alighted on is virtually meaningless; it tells us nothing about historical context, nor direction of travel. A 30% drop vs a 43% increase is informative on both counts, and not in a good way. You are either the Black Knight, or Neil Woodford.
The article quotes $85bn invested in the UK and $340bn invested in the rest of the EU.
Which means that 20% was invested in the UK.
So proportionally more was invested in the UK than the rest of the EU.
Its always best to check the details.
Checking the details I find:
3 years ago investment in EU27 was $237b, UK was $121b, UK was 33% of total investment.
Now investment in EU27 is $340b, UK is $85b. UK is now 20% of total investment.
That is what the details show. You can't spin that to mean anything other than bad news for the UK.
And what were the three years before that and the three years before that etc.
Was it ever likely that the UK would continue to get 33% of the investment ?
No, because investment goes in ebbs and flows as previous investments are implemented and new opportunities arise.
And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property.
I'm surprised that the UK still gets proportionally more than the EU average.
Though it does suggest that given overall business investment has increased during the period then UK businesses must have significantly increased their investment to make up for the reduction in investment from outside.
You're struggling now
"And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property." !!
No - the UK isn't a good place to invest currently because its economic future and trading arrangements are very uncertain because of the Brexit fiasco.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
If only Johnson could call (or rather engineer) a snap election before the Brexit deadline. But that's out of the question. Isn't it?
Not out of question but a huge gamble. Scenario
Boris elected late July and becomes PM. Quickly realises (after 3 years) that BREXIT crisis cannot be resolved with present HoC. Pre-empts VONC and with super majority of the Commons and goes for a general election in September with a BREXIT WTO No Deal Manifesto.
Off topic, on a sample size of two I spoke to two very non-political people in ultra marginal Crewe & Nantwich over the weekend. One of whom is my half-sister, who rarely votes.
Conclusions: (1) everyone is fed up of Brexit, and aren’t sure if it’s ever going to happen (2) immigration hasn’t gone away as a concern, both were still concerned at the volume and worried that would never be tackled now (3) both felt very sorry for Theresa May who they felt had done her best and (4) none of them had a clue about any of the new contenders, except recognising Boris; “is he still going?”
Make of that what you will.
Here's my anecdata. Last night at a posho dinner. Super cautious about bringing up the B-word. And yet everyone around me (sample: five) noted what a disaster Brexit is/would be and we all laughed/cried at the Brexiters' idiocy.
IDS and Mark Francois support Boris. When two of the most stupid men ever to have worn a blue rosette think something/someone is good, you have to conclude that the opposite is true.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
What stands out for me from that YouGov polling is that 2016 Remain voters are hardly any more likely to vote Con if the likes of Hunt or Javid were leader than they are if Johnson is leader. 14% of Remain voters would vote Con compared to 10% with Johnson. Whereas there is a much more substantial jump in Leave support for Con with Johnson as leader - 52% with Johnson compared with 33%/34% with Hunt/Javid.
Whatever else happens to shift public opinion in the campaign, the poll knocks on the head the idea that voters will come flocking back to the Conservatives with a continuity May leader.
Well, it depends how disastrous people think No Deal would be.
There's precious little point in boosting the Tories' poll rating by 5 or even 10 points for the next three months, if the result is a huge disaster in November, for which the Tories get the blame.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Because on the big issues of the day he probably is.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
If only Johnson could call (or rather engineer) a snap election before the Brexit deadline. But that's out of the question. Isn't it?
Not out of question but a huge gamble. Scenario
Boris elected late July and becomes PM. Quickly realises (after 3 years) that BREXIT crisis cannot be resolved with present HoC. Pre-empts VONC and with super majority of the Commons and goes for a general election in September with a BREXIT WTO No Deal Manifesto.
Against a Labour Party bifurcating itself on a fence he'd have every chance of winning. Help!
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
If only Johnson could call (or rather engineer) a snap election before the Brexit deadline. But that's out of the question. Isn't it?
Not out of question but a huge gamble. Scenario
Boris elected late July and becomes PM. Quickly realises (after 3 years) that BREXIT crisis cannot be resolved with present HoC. Pre-empts VONC and with super majority of the Commons and goes for a general election in September with a BREXIT WTO No Deal Manifesto.
There was talk a few days ago of parliament going into recess before the result of the leadership election was announced. Has there been any more on that?
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
What stands out for me from that YouGov polling is that 2016 Remain voters are hardly any more likely to vote Con if the likes of Hunt or Javid were leader than they are if Johnson is leader. 14% of Remain voters would vote Con compared to 10% with Johnson. Whereas there is a much more substantial jump in Leave support for Con with Johnson as leader - 52% with Johnson compared with 33%/34% with Hunt/Javid.
Whatever else happens to shift public opinion in the campaign, the poll knocks on the head the idea that voters will come flocking back to the Conservatives with a continuity May leader.
The problem with the polling is a large proportion of leave voters are deluded/misled by politicians into thinking we can Brexit in October. We will not. No Tory candidate has any realistic plan to do so. The polls will be completely different in November as Boris or whoever will look weak and incapable of fulfilling their promises. Farage is loving where this is heading.
I'm assuming she's a Ruthie loyalist so might well be backing The Iron Saj ?
Ms Hair is of course the airhead who said she didn't vote in the EU ref 'cos it was too hard to decide. It's dated 05/06 so a bit out of date, but as part of 'generation Ruth' (her phrase), she'll be falling into line with whatever the Colonel decides, anything else would be too hard on the old thinking tackle.
Para 8
'The morning after the 2016 EU referendum, Nicola Sturgeon used the result to bang the drum for separation and that drum has never stopped banging since. And truth be told, it is giving most Scots a chronic headache.'
Para 13
'Scots want to see their two governments working together, not pulling apart, they want to see delivery not politicking, but most of all they want honesty and not excuses.'
The article quotes $85bn invested in the UK and $340bn invested in the rest of the EU.
Which means that 20% was invested in the UK.
So proportionally more was invested in the UK than the rest of the EU.
Its always best to check the details.
Checking the details I find:
3 years ago investment in EU27 was $237b, UK was $121b, UK was 33% of total investment.
Now investment in EU27 is $340b, UK is $85b. UK is now 20% of total investment.
That is what the details show. You can't spin that to mean anything other than bad news for the UK.
And what were the three years before that and the three years before that etc.
Was it ever likely that the UK would continue to get 33% of the investment ?
No, because investment goes in ebbs and flows as previous investments are implemented and new opportunities arise.
And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property.
I'm surprised that the UK still gets proportionally more than the EU average.
Though it does suggest that given overall business investment has increased during the period then UK businesses must have significantly increased their investment to make up for the reduction in investment from outside.
You're struggling now
"And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property." !!
No - the UK isn't a good place to invest currently because its economic future and trading arrangements are very uncertain because of the Brexit fiasco.
Yet the two years with the highest business investment were 2017 and 2018.
And when I see all the business investment along the M18 my thoughts are " how much is that costing ??? where are they going to get a workforce for that ??? how is that going to make money ??? "
That's in one of the cheaper parts of the country, how the equivalent business investments in London and the South-East are viable is beyond me.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Because on the big issues of the day he probably is.
He thinks that we can move on from Brexit with a deal, and said he would back No Deal over revocation if it came to that. He also said we’d “survive” because “trade isn’t vital to our economy”.
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
Unfortunately, elections are carried out in 650 constituencies sometime in the future, rather than with YouGov a couple of weeks ago with hypothetical questions. While YouGov have a good record at the moment, we're very much in uncharted waters with four strong showings (plus the Greens as another half). Both for modelling opinion and for modelling the translation of that opinion to seats. Added to the fact that opinions move over time, and hypothetical questions have poor records"
"Boris would probably have got in the high twenties a couple of weeks ago, if people voted as they believed they might, which might be enough for a majority if the vote distribution broke in a fashion broadly similar to the modelling on Electoral Calculus. The other candidates appeared, at the time, to have slightly lower support"
It's less absolutist than your version, but it has the advantage of being far more accurate.
And these sorts of polls are in any case measuring how popular a politician would be during their honeymoon, not how popular they'll be after a spell in office.
Yeah.. I can see the shine coming off Boris pretty sharpish. Which may inform how he behaves in his very early days (ie you can see the attraction to him of headline grabbing stuff like No Deal, tax cut, even a snap election, which fits the "stop faffing around" narrative). Giving himself a couple of months sharply increases the risk of him being left dangling off another zipwire - a metaphoric one with more serious consequences.
Of course, some people think No Deal or a snap election may have the same consequences.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I
The
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
It’s not a viable compromise if neither side is willing to live with it.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I
The
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
It’s not a viable compromise if neither side is willing to live with it.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I
The
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
It’s not a viable compromise if neither side is willing to live with it.
Whether he is right or wrong, he is compromising by advocating a solution that would not be his own personal preference if he could disregard everyone else's views. That is compromise.
Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
That is true but I'm not sure I'd risk the rent money on enough MPs being duplicitous shits to land the odds.
Boris is riding two horses. If you look at his declared backers, it is the most even mix of Leavers and Remainers of any of the candidates. Presumably the former believe Boris is the Churchillian figure to stand up to the EU and leave on halloween, whereas the Remainers are convinced that once Boris is elected there will be a swift volte face on Brexit.
This may be one reason Boris has been ducking questions (although his launch is due today). He needs both these opposing groups to remain convinced he is their man. They can't both be right but provided he can keep the plates spinning for another couple of weeks, he'll be kissing hands at the Palace.
Michael Gove seems to have adopted the same strategy of becoming the Remainer's Leaver but has rather overdone it and landed right on the other side. Remarkably for the man who headed the Leave referendum campaign, there is nary a Brexiteer to be found amongst his declared supporters. Too clever by half is not a phrase often heard in connection with Michael Gove but ... oh wait, no, sorry, it is.
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I was out for a dinner party last night. As usual I was the only one who would self declare as a Tory in the room. Most of the others are the sort of people who supported SLAB before it went bizarre. The odd Lib Dem.
They tend to like Ruth but what surprised me last night was how much they all liked Rory. It lends to support to the theory that he is the Tory non Tories like, much, much more so than Boris. A party looking to win elections and lengthen its reach, as opposed to ideological purity, would do well to reflect on that. But I don't suppose that they will.
The Conservatives will not pick Rory. However I hope there are enough MP's that support Stewart to give him a solid base for the future. If the Conservatives pick Boris and crash and burn then they'll need leaders such as Stewart to pick over the wreckage and move forward.
Yes. Hunt or Rory or possibly Ruth via by-election will need to rebuild the wasteland after No Deal chaos.
Hard to believe southerners still go on about Davidson who is absolutely useless, she makes Boris look principled. She has no vision , policies or anything positive to add, a lying one trick pony saying SNPBAD no Indyref2. It is easy to see why so much dross gets to where they do in England.
Yes, fair comment. Davidson must be the most overrated politician in the UK. She is vaguely normal hence why she seems unusually brilliant among the Tory freak show.
Ruth backed Stephen Crabb in the last Tory horror show, whatever happened to him? A hypocrite who espouses Christian values while tweeting dirty stuff to a women not his wife would be pretty far up the moral pecking order in the current bunch.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I
The
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
It’s not a viable compromise if neither side is willing to live with it.
Whether he is right or wrong, he is compromising by advocating a solution that would not be his own personal preference if he could disregard everyone else's views. That is compromise.
But it is his personal preference disregarding everyone else’s views. He’s not against a second referendum because it would be divisive but because he thinks it would be illegitimate to consult the people after they voted to leave in 2016. Even his citizens’ assembly idea is purely designed so that they endorse the deal. If they recommend anything else he said they would be overruled by parliament.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I
The
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
It’s not a viable compromise if neither side is willing to live with it.
The problem is also both sides thing they can still win. No-deals are thinking they can string it out, and Reaminers are thinking (probably rightly) that no-deal can and will be blocked.
It's the ultimate game of chicken with 31 October, just like it was in March,
Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
I was wondering whether some MPs might vote for Boris once, so they can tell their local parties with honesty that they supported him, then switch to stop Boris candidates later on.
And then the bulk of their constituency party can switch to the Brexit Party when they do.....
Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
I was wondering whether some MPs might vote for Boris once, so they can tell their local parties with honesty that they supported him, then switch to stop Boris candidates later on.
And then the bulk of their constituency party can switch to the Brexit Party when they do.....
Group Two - In Order Of Least Worst For The Nation :
2. Jeremy Hunt - Dull, worthy and vaguely competent 3. Michael Gove - A complete sh*t but vaguely competent 4. Matt Hancock - Completely vague and vaguely competent 5. Sajid Javid - Not entirely vague and not entirely incompetent
Group Three - Ranking In Order Of Rank Incredulity Of Their Rankness :
6. Mark Harper - The cab rank awaits. 7. Andrea Leadsom - Ranks as a mother but no rebirth of the nation 8. Dominic Rabb - Requires proroguing to Dover for re-education and re-ranking 9. Ester McVey - A rank disaster but with added delusions as a Thatcher successor
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
Trump won of course
And that has worked out well for everyone.
The US economy is still growing
If it were only the headline GDP.numbers that mattered then Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place.
On pretty much every measure Americans are batter off now than before Trump got elected (not necessarily because of anything he did). If he makes his campaign the same that Reagan he could win again.. (of course Reagan was using this as a criticism of the previous administration. ) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8EvFQLhqWPQ
Unless you're a woman who cares about reproductive health, an LGBT person who cares about equal protection, a latinx person who wants to feel welcome in their own country, a working person who wants to keep their healthcare, or so on and so on. The only Americans doing better are the already wealthy. The wealth is not trickling down, as the Russian prostitute said to the future POTUS.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
1. - Rory Stewart - The surname says it all ....
Group Four - Special Grouping For MIA Candidates
10. Boris Johnson - The Donald Trump went To Eton candidate.
I
The
The question is whether he appeals to non Tories because they don’t think he’s a Tory, and are so picking the best of the worst, or whether he has the potential to pull votes into the Tory camp from centrist Labour supporters and Lib Dems.
They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Not necessarily but if such voters would never vote Tory regardless then it’s just mood music.
I think Rory’s appeal is just the novelty of someone conducting politics in a different way, but for all his talk of compromise, he’s unwilling to change his positions because he’s absolutely sure that he is right.
Do you think he believes in Brexit at all? As far as I can see he only believes in it as delivering as a compromise, and better than further division via the alternatives. That is comprimise.
It’s not a viable compromise if neither side is willing to live with it.
Whether he is right or wrong, he is compromising by advocating a solution that would not be his own personal preference if he could disregard everyone else's views. That is compromise.
But it is his personal preference disregarding everyone else’s views. He’s not against a second referendum because it would be divisive but because he thinks it would be illegitimate to consult the people after they voted to leave in 2016. Even his citizens’ assembly idea is purely designed so that they endorse the deal. If they recommend anything else he said they would be overruled by parliament.
Compromise is not agreeing with everyone else, or agreeing with your view! He has a preference of remain, but is advocating a position taking account of other peoples views of leave with a deal. That is the definition of compromise.
It is fine for you to argue he is wrong, or should have made a different compromise (2nd ref), stuck to his guns and go for revoke, but to argue he is not compromising is changing the meaning of the word.
Indeed. IP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
Boris is the only Tory who gets a majority with Yougov against Corbyn anyway, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Raab all see a Corbyn minority government so the Tories have nothing to lose by going for Boris
Unfortunately, elections are carried out in 650 constituencies sometime in the future, rather than with YouGov a couple of weeks ago with hypothetical questions. While YouGov have a good record at the moment, we're very much in uncharted waters with four strong showings (plus the Greens as another half). Both for modelling opinion and for modelling the translation of that opinion to seats. Added to the fact that opinions move over time, and hypothetical questions have poor records"
"Boris would probably have got in the high twenties a couple of weeks ago, if people voted as they believed they might, which might be enough for a majority if the vote distribution broke in a fashion broadly similar to the modelling on Electoral Calculus. The other candidates appeared, at the time, to have slightly lower support"
It's less absolutist than your version, but it has the advantage of being far more accurate.
And these sorts of polls are in any case measuring how popular a politician would be during their honeymoon, not how popular they'll be after a spell in office.
Yeah.. I can see the shine coming off Boris pretty sharpish. Which may inform how he behaves in his very early days (ie you can see the attraction to him of headline grabbing stuff like No Deal, tax cut, even a snap election, which fits the "stop faffing around" narrative). Giving himself a couple of months sharply increases the risk of him being left dangling off another zipwire - a metaphoric one with more serious consequences.
Of course, some people think No Deal or a snap election may have the same consequences.
Anyone else think Ladbrokes have the odds on Boris' first round votes a bit wrong? They only really make sense if you assume he will struggle to improve on his declared numbers, but there are several dozen MPs out there who have backed no-one.
Maybe things will be different this time, but in 2016 everyone got a bit of a boost going into the ballots. Yet you can make a small arb combining all the 80+ brackets, and quite a big one if you go to 90+. Keep in mind he's on 69 declared now.
Declared doesn't mean all will vote for you - what you do in public and what you do in private (and the vote is a secret private vote) may be entirely different.
I was wondering whether some MPs might vote for Boris once, so they can tell their local parties with honesty that they supported him, then switch to stop Boris candidates later on.
And then the bulk of their constituency party can switch to the Brexit Party when they do.....
Compromise is not agreeing with everyone else, or agreeing with your view! He has a preference of remain, but is advocating a position taking account of other peoples views of leave with a deal. That is the definition of compromise.
It is fine for you to argue he is wrong, or should have made a different compromise (2nd ref), stuck to his guns and go for revoke, but to argue he is not compromising is changing the meaning of the word.
He has a fixed view of the best way to move forwards and has been unwilling to take on any alternative view despite nearly a year of arguing about it. In that time it's been proven beyond doubt that his magical thinking that "80% of people agree with me" was delusional. That's being stubborn and uncompromising.
The JackW /Jacobite Conservative Leadership Rankings :
(snip) Trump won of course
Indeed. I'm not saying that Boris will not win the leadership. However the Conservative MP's and/or membership have history in picking a total electoral dud - Hague, May and of course IDS who has just endorsed Boris.
Boris as PM .... what could possibly go wrong ?!?!?!?!?!?
Trump won. The GOP hooked itself along for the ride. In office but not in power. What will be interesting will be to see what’s left when Trump is gone.
Do the Tories really want to go down the same road?
Boris is like a drug for many Tories .... Er ....
Put simply in the present situation enough Tories, MP's and membership, are willing to bet the house on Boris in the hope that name recognition and his Trump-lite personality will outweigh his huge baggage.
They'll go all in with this high stakes poker game knowing that if Boris blows it then the general election in a few months will be a massacre for the Conservatives as Hunt said at his launch yesterday.
If only Johnson could call (or rather engineer) a snap election before the Brexit deadline. But that's out of the question. Isn't it?
Not out of question but a huge gamble. Scenario
Boris elected late July and becomes PM. Quickly realises (after 3 years) that BREXIT crisis cannot be resolved with present HoC. Pre-empts VONC and with super majority of the Commons and goes for a general election in September with a BREXIT WTO No Deal Manifesto.
The manifesto's an interesting one, though. Something that stark is presumably the point at which a fairly hefty chunk of the party splits off. I can't see many of the people who've made TM's life tricky from the remain side signing up to a commitment like that, and anything else probably means a longish delay. This might be good news for the hard Brexit wing - and possibly neutralise Farage - but a party in which Ken Clarke, Amber Rudd, Dominic Grieve and a couple of dozen like them are replaced by the hastily-enlisted chair of the local party will do nothing to build the Tories of the 21st century.
They may have no choice... the time for fence-sitting seems to be over, and pivoting to second ref or revoke isn't happening. But anyone who thinks this will be the start of a mass movement for 5 or 10 years time is, IMO, kidding themselves.
IDS and Mark Francois support Boris. When two of the most stupid men ever to have worn a blue rosette think something/someone is good, you have to conclude that the opposite is true.
To be honest Boris having the backing of that pair plus Baker is perfect as Boris will own Brexit and when he comes up against the deadlock his betrayal to these hard liners will be a sight to behold
Compromise is not agreeing with everyone else, or agreeing with your view! He has a preference of remain, but is advocating a position taking account of other peoples views of leave with a deal. That is the definition of compromise.
It is fine for you to argue he is wrong, or should have made a different compromise (2nd ref), stuck to his guns and go for revoke, but to argue he is not compromising is changing the meaning of the word.
He has a fixed view of the best way to move forwards and has been unwilling to take on any alternative view despite nearly a year of arguing about it. In that time it's been proven beyond doubt that his magical thinking that "80% of people agree with me" was delusional. That's being stubborn and uncompromising.
He definitely exagerrates on stats to make his argument, I will give you that.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
I'm at a loss as to how reducing lessons by 1 hour a week reduces the number of teachers required. You still have say 60 classes needing to be taught at any one time.. Unless of cause you reduce the number of free lessons teachers have but that slack is usually required to cover for normal absences...
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
I'm at a loss as to how reducing lessons by 1 hour a week reduces the number of teachers required. You still have say 60 classes needing to be taught at any one time.. Unless of cause you reduce the number of free lessons teachers have but that slack is usually required to cover for normal absences...
Could you post that again when Dy Y is about. Might be an interesting, and informed, answer.
Can't ask my teacher grandchildren at the moment either!
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Except, teachers aren't paid per pupil. If anything, they are leaving more resources (teacher's time) available for the other children.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
The schools I went to in the 1990s and early 2000s had a very liberal attitude to kids missing school due to holidays. I don't remember thinking they got special attention when they came back. I was slightly surprised when a friend of mine missed to two weeks in Year 10 to go to Florida, but I don't think it had a detrimental impact on his or anyone else's GCSEs.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Devil's advocate hat: yet teachers think its fine to have 'training days', where parents have to remain at home to look after kids whilst the teachers do God-knows-what. (Thankfully, my shcool tends to place them at the start or end of a half/full term, rather than in the middle. Except this term...)
In addition, a big issue is that the savings from going in term-time more than offsets any reasonable fines. This is an advantage rich parents have, whilst poor ones cannot take advantage.
Finally, kids are off school sick all the time. My little 'un has had 3 or 4 days off (pre/reception) school in two years. Others have been off much more. Teachers need to cope with that.
It's a difficult one, but it does seem to advantage rich parents, who can afford either to pay the fine, or the increased prices holiday companies pay during holidays.
Rory Stewart also goes down well with some Labour friends .
I wouldn’t ever vote Tory and they wouldn’t but he does get some grudging respect and is seen as sane and quite sensible . He also has a very interesting life story and many have been following him on social media .
The thing I like about him is he’s actually putting himself out there and taking a big risk with his campaign . He may well be another who gets removed by the no deal death cult .
I could see myself tactically voting for a Rory-led Tory party in my ultra marginal constituency. He's preferable to a Corbyn-led LAB
Likewise but let's be honest it's not going to happen. The Tory membership are going to choose our next PM and they will choose the most extreme Brexiteer on offer. I think I'll be sitting out the next GE as I did the last one.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Especially in the last few weeks of the summer term when not much school work work gets done.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Devil's advocate hat: yet teachers think its fine to have 'training days', where parents have to remain at home to look after kids whilst the teachers do God-knows-what. (Thankfully, my shcool tends to place them at the start or end of a half/full term, rather than in the middle. Except this term...)
In addition, a big issue is that the savings from going in term-time more than offsets any reasonable fines. This is an advantage rich parents have, whilst poor ones cannot take advantage.
Finally, kids are off school sick all the time. My little 'un has had 3 or 4 days off (pre/reception) school in two years. Others have been off much more. Teachers need to cope with that.
It's a difficult one, but it does seem to advantage rich parents, who can afford either to pay the fine, or the increased prices holiday companies pay during holidays.
School Governors have the right to accept or reject proposed training days - I know I changed one around when I was Chair of Governors..
So nice argument but that is also in (some) parents control...
Btw some of our local secondary schools seem to have Black Friday as a training day..
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Especially in the last few weeks of the summer term when not much school work work gets done.
Some schools lump all training days into a week in June. This allows parents to get a cheaper holiday.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Except, teachers aren't paid per pupil. If anything, they are leaving more resources (teacher's time) available for the other children.
For the week they aren't there. The following week the teacher has to spend (probably more) time telling them what they missed so they get back up to speed.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Except, teachers aren't paid per pupil. If anything, they are leaving more resources (teacher's time) available for the other children.
For the week they aren't there. The following week the teacher has to spend (probably more) time telling them what they missed so they get back up to speed.
For planned absences, it ought to be possible to get some useful work done
CF the late Terry Pratchett and 'What I Did on my Holidays"!
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Devil's advocate hat: yet teachers think its fine to have 'training days', where parents have to remain at home to look after kids whilst the teachers do God-knows-what. (Thankfully, my shcool tends to place them at the start or end of a half/full term, rather than in the middle. Except this term...)
In addition, a big issue is that the savings from going in term-time more than offsets any reasonable fines. This is an advantage rich parents have, whilst poor ones cannot take advantage.
Finally, kids are off school sick all the time. My little 'un has had 3 or 4 days off (pre/reception) school in two years. Others have been off much more. Teachers need to cope with that.
It's a difficult one, but it does seem to advantage rich parents, who can afford either to pay the fine, or the increased prices holiday companies pay during holidays.
School Governors have the right to accept or reject proposed training days - I know I changed one around when I was Chair of Governors..
So nice argument but that is also in (some) parents control...
Btw some of our local secondary schools seem to have Black Friday as a training day..
Thanks. Training days don't really concern us, as I'm currently a lazy sod a stay-at home dad. However for parents who might have kids in two, or three, schools, and where both parents work, they can be a real PITA.
People talk about JAMs; this seems a good way of reducing a little pressure on the JAMS.
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Devils advocate hat - Given that us as tax payers are paying for that child's education it's only fair that we insist child attend the lessons - and as a parent I don't want teachers wasting time getting children back up to speed due to missing a week.
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Except, teachers aren't paid per pupil. If anything, they are leaving more resources (teacher's time) available for the other children.
For the week they aren't there. The following week the teacher has to spend (probably more) time telling them what they missed so they get back up to speed.
We're talking planned absences. And teachers still need to do this for children who have been off ill.
Comments
Agree with all the people saying Rory is great. But he suffers from the same problem in the actual circumstances facing him that No Deal is not an option for him, so Remain must be an option - there being ultimately nowhere else to go. In a way it's a pity that such an intelligent remainer has not planted a flag on the unoccupied 'Norway for Now' or 'EFTA for Now' option. It would not get past the party of course but would have the minor merits of being sane, incrementalist, possible and correct.
Name.......Backers (Public)...Votes (Private)
Crabb............22......................34
Fox................7........................16
Gove..............27......................48
Leadsom........42......................66
May..............141.....................165
This time a similar number of MPs have publicly declared support, there is just under 100 left. Boris is on 69. Maybe this time will be different, but I wouldn't put the brackets relying on it being different as near favourites.
Interestingly another way of looking at things is that the undecideds split fairly evenly, with a few more going to the top candidates but not nearly as skewed as the public declarations. In that case Boris will end in the 80s more likely than 90s - but 70s while possible will still be tight. And that's assuming he doesn't add any public backers in the next couple of days.
"Boris would probably have got in the high twenties a couple of weeks ago, if people voted as they believed they might, which might be enough for a majority if the vote distribution broke in a fashion broadly similar to the modelling on Electoral Calculus. The other candidates appeared, at the time, to have slightly lower support"
It's less absolutist than your version, but it has the advantage of being far more accurate.
3 years ago investment in EU27 was $237b, UK was $121b, UK was 33% of total investment.
Now investment in EU27 is $340b, UK is $85b. UK is now 20% of total investment.
That is what the details show. You can't spin that to mean anything other than bad news for the UK.
Which is logical as some of the people publicly supporting the favourite will be doing so because they want to be seen supporting the winner.
I expect "unusual" voting patterns ....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0005mk5
Round two will be much harder.
Gordon Henderson
Chris Davies
Glyn Davies
What time is Boris campaign launch?
Whatever else happens to shift public opinion in the campaign, the poll knocks on the head the idea that voters will come flocking back to the Conservatives with a continuity May leader.
Was it ever likely that the UK would continue to get 33% of the investment ?
No, because investment goes in ebbs and flows as previous investments are implemented and new opportunities arise.
And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property.
I'm surprised that the UK still gets proportionally more than the EU average.
Though it does suggest that given overall business investment has increased during the period then UK businesses must have significantly increased their investment to make up for the reduction in investment from outside.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48580377
"And really the UK isn't a good place to invest currently as you would struggle to recruit a new workforce and also be paying top whack prices for property." !!
No - the UK isn't a good place to invest currently because its economic future and trading arrangements are very uncertain because of the Brexit fiasco.
Boris elected late July and becomes PM. Quickly realises (after 3 years) that BREXIT crisis cannot be resolved with present HoC. Pre-empts VONC and with super majority of the Commons and goes for a general election in September with a BREXIT WTO No Deal Manifesto.
There's precious little point in boosting the Tories' poll rating by 5 or even 10 points for the next three months, if the result is a huge disaster in November, for which the Tories get the blame.
Retweeted by B&R Tories: https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1131267480742236160
Ms Hair is of course the airhead who said she didn't vote in the EU ref 'cos it was too hard to decide. It's dated 05/06 so a bit out of date, but as part of 'generation Ruth' (her phrase), she'll be falling into line with whatever the Colonel decides, anything else would be too hard on the old thinking tackle.
Para 8
'The morning after the 2016 EU referendum, Nicola Sturgeon used the result to bang the drum for separation and that drum has never stopped banging since. And truth be told, it is giving most Scots a chronic headache.'
Para 13
'Scots want to see their two governments working together, not pulling apart, they want to see delivery not politicking, but most of all they want honesty and not excuses.'
And when I see all the business investment along the M18 my thoughts are " how much is that costing ??? where are they going to get a workforce for that ??? how is that going to make money ??? "
That's in one of the cheaper parts of the country, how the equivalent business investments in London and the South-East are viable is beyond me.
Not that I'm aware of.
https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17697239.wheatley-park-school-proposes-finishing-early-on-fridays/
Boris is riding two horses. If you look at his declared backers, it is the most even mix of Leavers and Remainers of any of the candidates. Presumably the former believe Boris is the Churchillian figure to stand up to the EU and leave on halloween, whereas the Remainers are convinced that once Boris is elected there will be a swift volte face on Brexit.
This may be one reason Boris has been ducking questions (although his launch is due today). He needs both these opposing groups to remain convinced he is their man. They can't both be right but provided he can keep the plates spinning for another couple of weeks, he'll be kissing hands at the Palace.
Michael Gove seems to have adopted the same strategy of becoming the Remainer's Leaver but has rather overdone it and landed right on the other side. Remarkably for the man who headed the Leave referendum campaign, there is nary a Brexiteer to be found amongst his declared supporters. Too clever by half is not a phrase often heard in connection with Michael Gove but ... oh wait, no, sorry, it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp94BNovs0o
It's the ultimate game of chicken with 31 October, just like it was in March,
It is fine for you to argue he is wrong, or should have made a different compromise (2nd ref), stuck to his guns and go for revoke, but to argue he is not compromising is changing the meaning of the word.
That isn't my post
A parent in my son's class went into class this morning and told the teacher that her son was going on holiday tomorrow, and would not be in school for a week.
The teacher just sighed and told her to tell the school office.
I can see the arguments both ways, but allowing a *limited* number of days off a year for term time holidays might be a massive vote-winner.
Unless of cause you reduce the number of free lessons teachers have but that slack is usually required to cover for normal absences...
Hopefully both parents will be individually fined for every child missing school...
Can't ask my teacher grandchildren at the moment either!
In addition, a big issue is that the savings from going in term-time more than offsets any reasonable fines. This is an advantage rich parents have, whilst poor ones cannot take advantage.
Finally, kids are off school sick all the time. My little 'un has had 3 or 4 days off (pre/reception) school in two years. Others have been off much more. Teachers need to cope with that.
It's a difficult one, but it does seem to advantage rich parents, who can afford either to pay the fine, or the increased prices holiday companies pay during holidays.
So nice argument but that is also in (some) parents control...
Btw some of our local secondary schools seem to have Black Friday as a training day..
CF the late Terry Pratchett and 'What I Did on my Holidays"!
People talk about JAMs; this seems a good way of reducing a little pressure on the JAMS.